Plays :

Under 10-122 tribe
Falcons +5 or better
Parlay : Under Tribe 10 , Over 9 Colorado and Falcons +5.
1st H Under 22 ATL ( 1/2 the size)
GL


Looking back at my commentary I was happy to see I had such a nice grasp on the NFL at this point or at leas in week 6. Some things that crossed my mind yesterday that I didn't follow through on was playing the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints MLs at two to one and better. Especially once the news got out Vinny was starting the line ran up to -6. How in the world is a defense like Carolina's getting 6 points versus an offense that regularly tops out at 21 points missing a featured WR?? Facing an immobile QB. Anyway...



Where does one start with tonites game????

Lets start with portraying an accurate perception of these teams.

The Falcons :

First thing of note is the loss of 2 OL recently pushing Clabo and Foster into action. Two youngsters with limited experience ( Foster facing Usi). Last year ATL held stud WR Plaxico Burress to 4 catches for 44 yards as it was the Tike barber show. Eli that nite was 17 of 30 180 yards.

What sticks out about the Falcons is they haven't really been beaten badly yet. They dont know how to make the play or plays to win late. Sure 24-3 @ Minny looks bad but it was two pick 6's to the house and a screen pass to AP that went like 67 yards for a score. They lead at Jax 7-3 to start the 4th quarter but simply couldn't put more points on the board to pull the upset. They IMO beat the panthers pretty bad but self destructed over and over again. First they get to the Car 34 on a 17yd Dunn run on 1st down and fumble on the opening drive. Chances are they put points on the board. Next possession drive it to the Car 17 and fumble the snap on the FG attempt..amazing. Still it was 10-10 at half. They had 5 possessions for 256 yards at half on offense. So much for that horrible offense and CAR is a better then average defense. We all know how up 17-10 D'Angelo Hall lost his cool and handed Car momentum and probably the game. After stopping them on 3rd down and long Hall got a taunting penalty resulting in a 1st down. Instead of a 40yd FG attempt they would later score. After slowing the CAR offense all game and knocking out Delhomme suddenly the Falcons stop anyone and wound up losing 27-20 as 4 pt dogs. Next week at Hou the broke through vs a depleted Houston team but settled for FGS. last week @ Tenny they couldn't do anything on offense vs tenny but had many chances to tie the game late.

Harrington at home 54/73 584 yards and 4Tds with zero INTS! Impressive IMO! Still just 3 of 10 from the red zone (0-2 goal to go) and 66 of 7 on FGs. On the road they are 1 of 5 from the red zone(0-2 goal to go) and 3 of 9 on FGS. They have also been sacked 15 times compared to 3 . So the offense has been fairly solid at home. Mix in the fact NYG allow an avg starting of position of the 30 yd line when kicking to Jerious Norwood and his 30.8 kick return avg.

The defense has some stars but really has performed better on the road then at home...36 pts in 3 games...away.

This has me sort of confused about this defense. Which may have Babineux and Coleman back tonight.

On the Giants side I think we have to look at them more in the last 3 or 2.5 games. Since halftime @ Washington the Giant defense has allowed 13 points in 10 quarters. They allowed a NYJ kick return though for a score as well as seeing the JET defense pickup a fumble and score. So it faces an ATL offense that attacks more t home and dinks and dunks more on the road looking at the numbers. You would have to think the OL issues should slow the ATL offense down. Not to the Numbers of its road games but probably some inbewteen area from the home / road numbers. Thinking like 17pts...Also ATL will have FG issues. I don't think they like Andersen beyond 45 yards and that leads to going on 4th down Or Koenen who is a carp shoot. Strong leg but not sure anyone knows where the football is going.

What has the Giant offense done exactly ? They rallied nicely @ Washington for 17 second half points. They still managed just 236 yards passing on 36 attempts with a TD and 2 INTs. Home vs a depleted Eagle secondary they managed 9 points on offense and Eli was 14 of 26 135 yds(td/int). Last week vs the Jets at home 13/25 186 yds 2tds/int. Take away the shootout opener Eli is 64 /116 764(191yds per) yards. 5tds/5ints. Lawrence Tynes is a wild card himself at kicker . Obviously we cant forge the giants ground game but again ATL inconsistencies. Only Minny and car have had success on the ground(66c 214yds).

Tonite seems to come down to how strong the Giants run the ball versus ATL. They have not done much in any of the past 3 1st Halves. ATL will need to move the ball consistently and convert 3rd downs while not self destructing.

Conclusion : Need more to think about it. part of me believes this game will feature two fired up defenses and offense settling for FG attempts. On the other hand we have seen how both defenses can break down and allow big plays while NY is capable of a quick score so is the Falcon offense at home IMO. Thinking about a 1st Half UNDER at the moment. How does ATL respond after the turmoil?? I think ATL is a totally different team at home and until NY shows consistency on both sides of the ball how can you feel comfortable laying chalk on the road with them?? For 3 weeks the Giants were undervalued. They were catching 3.5 @ Washington , I cant see how WASH was perceived as better then NYG. Then catching 2 or 3 at home versus Philly when Westbrook , LJ Smith , Dawkins and Shepard missed. I mean Philly is 5 or 6 points better without a huge group of its stars. Then last week both teams at home but we should realize the JETS are bad on both sides of the ball. Still needed a huge 4th quarter to beat an inferior team. I am not sure what this line should be mainly cause of the CAR game. However I would think -3 is very fair and anything above is to high. So with that I lean heavily toward ATL +4.5 / +5 but hoping its get pushed up to 6 pts at game time....you most look at MLs in these situations especially since the only two ATS covers but not SU wins by dogs were the DD games @ Arizona last year and last week @ Buffalo.



Strong lean towards ATL ++ points and 1st H under 21.5. Good Luck!

ALCS

UNDER 10 Cleveland

This play is based on what I see as an inflated number. Due mainly to games 1 and 2 plus the recent swoon from Dice K and Westbrook's start vs NYY. Both of these pitchers are not easy to figure. Yes , Dice K struggled towards the end of the season but for the most part his road numbers were better then his Fenway stats. he did stumble in his last 3 outings away but they were to teams who had seem him alot in his division. Westbrook has been better at the Jake for years now.

First thing is neither pitcher gets run support. Dice K away 4.06 for 3.98 against and Westbrook is 3.71 for and 4.07 against. Westbrook 11-3 Under at home and Dice-K 11-7 Under away even with his last away starts sailing over. Factor that it with situational both starters getting the start where they prefer to pitch. When Westbrook started at home with a total of 10 or more the UNDER was 7-1. The lone over he pitched 1.1 innings allowing 1 run.

Although both pens pitched alot in SAT's game few if any were extended. Lewis for Cle is the guy I think may need an extra day. The others should be available without hestiation for an inning maybe more. Both SP should give you 6 innings as well .

Check the stats vs RHP in the respective situations( meaning Boston away and Cle home). Bos 264 vs Cle 279 and O/U 33-48-1 Bos and Cle 41-41-1.


Both teams admit to being drained after the last game and with a travel day on Sunday I dont think they are exactly fully rested. Dice K can relax some with a postseason star under his belt.

last but not least as I said total is to high. Dice K last trip was a 1-0 game with a 9 total. That 9 probably should have been 8.5 runs . With Westbrook it should be 9.5 runs. Westbrook vs Lester was 10.5 and went Under. The difference is probably a run bewteen Lester and Dice K again making 9.5 fair. Last year Schilling was in town vs Westbrook and Schill had been poor on the road for a few years and still we saw 8.5 runs.....my feeling is 9.5 runs was fair.

Good morning or afternoon depending where you are.

Some quick observations :

1- Even though I lean towards TB I do NOT see the Titans as a sucker play or so called trap play. I thought PK was fair but as I mentioned TB had been given quite some respect lately by the linesmakers. There isnt as many people running to pund Tenny at +3...however they are baiting TB money now with them at -1. Seems they did that with Cincy as well...

2- If I had to rank my plays in terms of strength it would be Dallas , KC , Jax , then three way tie bewteen Minny , Miami and Balt . The other play I lean heavy towards is GB -2.5 the rest are just basic leans.

3- Well JAgs go down the field on a big play . They settle for a short FG attempt . make it but a face mask penalty negates it. On the rekick from 41yds they miss. Unfortunately for me this is a huge negative for my Jax plays. I can tell you its almost the end of the game when a team marches down the field on its opening possession and fails to put any points on the board whenits a gimme....Death notice and jags will drive down teh field and probably score....watch

4- No sooner do I hit submit thats it 10-0...Jags are done.....trust me folks....

5- I spoke to soon. We are alive still. Apparently they fumbled it at the 1 out of teh end zone for a touchback. That was a miracle to stall the huge Houston momentum....

Update on the NFL:

Top 2 values I see :
Dallas +5.5
Cheifs +3

-Think Dallas ML is a sound value play and you can probably buy it to 6 points at most places.

-With KC would pay the grossly high vig to make it +3.5 instead of the ML.

1 PM :
Jaguars -6.5 : Two teams who appear headed in opposite directions. Jags started slow and have improved every week while I feel Houston is taking baby steps backwards. Still no Andre Johnson and while Ahman Green returns its been real tough to run against Jax. Garrard still gets no credit and has been solid to date. Some injuries to take note of on both sides. Think Jags team OVER could be a nice value...

Dolphins +4.5 : Browns offense has played well but still prone to costly turnovers. Miami is a desperate team who has 3 losses by 3 pts to date. There defense is getting healthier and Jamal Lewis is OUT. Cleo Lemon was fine @ Indy last year and expect a week of practice to a big huge benefit to the offense. Miami will probably allow 21 + pts here and that really makes the only total play and over in my opinion after much review. Think 24-21 game worst case scenario...

Vikings +5 : In 2006 these teams went head to head with the Vikings really beating themselves both times. I expect FGs here...19-16 or 16-13 game....thought the total should be 35. So value play on the UND 37 but sometimes I prefer the 1st H under . Gonna wait on a weather report for that decision.

Ravens -9 : McNair is a gametime decision but it really doesnt change my play. The Rams offensively are decimated bewteen the OL , QB , RB and WR injuries. The ravens defense just has to play 4 quarters. You can talk about BALTs offense but @ SF they are facing a very sound defense minus there TEs. Still no excuse but not the same situation. The Rams do not have an offensive TD on the road and Dante Hall will not be around to give them good field position or like @ Dallas 7 points. Tough task with Frerotte even hobbled some and mistake prone ( 3 INT'S) to feel confident that STL could score 14 points here..Only the 49ers poor offense failed to score 24 on STL who has gotten its starting corners back but is no minus Chavous at safety. Both teams have WR 's banged up and less then 100%....short fields scare me off turnovers but UND 37 might have some value...

Under 38 TB ( and TB -2.5 or ML): I dont like what Tenny has done recently but I am not crazy about the spread . I would have preferred to see PK or TB -1.5. As bad as ATL played last week the Titans had to hang on. Tenny was lucky to beat jax earlier and we know about the Saints now. The Indy game they scored when they were behind...a huge premium on points here...TB 17-13...

{Philly buy to -3 and UND 43} : These would be leans. You have to realize niether offense outside of 1 game for each has done much. Jets only scored 10 on offense vs da Giants...Philly is healthy here unlike the Giant game a few weeks back and yes they are 8-0 after the bye week. I expect an ugly game say 24-17...

GB Under 41 , 1st H under 20.5 , GB -2.5 -120 : First I think Wash is improved but look at there opponents. Det was how bad @ Philly and @ Wash ?? OT at home with Miami. Decent win @ Philly but the Eagles are struggling. Its gonna be tough for them to win on the road and you dont know how healthy Moss or Randle El are. Both defenses should be solid but I dont see WASH being as strong as the Bears are which the line tends to imply. The Skins were ONLY -4 at home to DET...Some issues on both sides with OL as well....

If I had to I would say expect a fairly low scoring game @ KC. Anything UNDER 43 or better loosk solid. I say this cause KC will concemtrate on the ground game and even if they win SU I would expect 23-20...


4 PM :

Ari -4 and Und 40 :

This is on the belief Carr will NOT play tmrw. Testaverde walking in off the streets with1 playmaker. It could be interesting to see Vinnys strong arm trying to connect with Steve Smith but you would think Ari blankets him. Panthers decent defense against Warner should keep the ARI offense in check. They had 3 gift scores @ STL IMO and really have been scoring about 20 per otherwise. The gifts were the James fumble forward for the TD , the penalty before half to give Warner a TD on the keeper and the pick 6. We know what the coaching staff wants to do in Arizona.

To some degeree both DAL and NE defenses are overrated especially when facing the respective offenses...think OVER here...

SD-9.5 : I am not crazy about seeing OAK try to run it with Fargas and Rhodes versus SD . This is NOT the Miami Dolphins minus Zach Thomas. We have to say if Culpepper can make plays in the passing game on a consistent basis before I call OAK anything. I loved how Rivers leaned on Gates in the passing game . You wonder when that light bulb moment happened. Anyway I see SD 27-14 here....but just like the Philly game one that I wouldnt run to play...


SNF :

Over 42 Seattle : Way to low for this game. The Saints defense isnt much to speak of and we know about Seattle in primetime specifically Shaun Alexander. Throw in the fact they are off a shutout. What scares me is Saints struggling offense versus a solid Seattle defense. For a side the Saints might be worth a shot but again not what I would be looking to play...27-21 game......


Team Totals :

Under Houston 14.5
Over Jags 21.5
Under Rams 14
Over Ravens 22.5
Over Eagles 23
Over Dallas 23.5
Under Bears 21.5

Thanks touc , nice to hear from you. Feel free to email me or comment me anytime bro.


Friday Nite

Missed the Boston game preferred Boston and played the Over 8 . Just didnt have time to post since I walked in 15 minutes before 1st pitch. Not sure about the second game at all yet.

Under 68 Hawaii / SJST

There has been some solid movement taking this from 19 to 16.5 so I am staying away from a side. I dont think SJST has much offense and anyone talking about Hawaii's schedule should realize who the Spartans just played..Idaho and Utah State while barely winning( okay Idaho made it close late ).

Supposedly been alot of bad weather in SJ last nite and today on what is probably not a great facility. Looking at Hawaii on the mainland the offense hasnt clicked as well and they have had penalties and / or turnovers. As long as SJST doesnt give them great field position like Idaho did or easy points like UNLV did then I think we see about Hawaii 38 - 24 SJST or 35-21 . Not overthinking this and honestly the field conditions and game conditions would have alot to do with who I sided versus the spread and since I cant see them then I cant make an accurate comment on what I like ATS. Also Hawaii has been known to coast and may do so with Brennan in bad field conditions dealing with an injury.

Somewhat disappointed in myself cause I had a great read on yesterdays game and simply didnt go with it. Looking at Navy's pourous pass defense I knew Pitt would be able to score and my Pitts comments you knew they werent very confident in shutting down Navys attack. When your head coach says you need at least 28 to win thats an eye opener. Then seeing how Navy could not be stopped on offense I felt +2.5 and Over 28.5 were great plays. teams do make adjustments at half but they werent even close to stopping eachother in the 1st H. Anyway thats old news.

Tonite is a ral tough matchup. First I think Wake Forest is a fraud. I understand they have played better with Riley Skinner at QB but have they really. Look at the BC game they had 2 defensive TDS early. Still they trailed 35-21 to start the 4th quarter. Maryland had the game all but won. Except Steffy gets INT in the end zone and a 24-3 game in 3rd quarter would have been 27 -3 or 31-3. What happens is a 100 yd IN return to get the Terps back in and the collapse is on. Where was Wake till that point ?? Then last week vs Duke I dont know what to make of that game. I had Duke but Wake benefited from great field position all day. Duke's D isnt exactly known for stopping anyone and handcuffed with great field position to defend I can see why they allowed 34 points( 7 on a pick 6 as well). I dont see much fro the DD offense and really think there defense is sort of Cincy Bengal like. They like to gamble which leads to TO's for points but also to high ppg allowed.

FSU is improving but they are also getting the right opponents. One's that are almost equally offensive challenged. Colorado , Bama , NCST. The thing I see from the NCST game was some missed FGs and real bad starting field position in the 2nd H held the Seminole offense in check more then anything else. Still a work in progress with no running game vs a solid run defense. This game is all about Riley Skinner vs Xavier Lee.

What I am haing trouble with is being able to put a number on this game. Meaning I cant seem to figure out what I think the spread should be. I think the offenses relying solely on the passing game can keep this game low scoring if both defenses come to play from the opening snap.

Basically take my comments at this time with a grain of salt cause not much is clear to me here. I am guessing FSU wins by 7-10 points and they settle for a few FGs. Something 23-13 type game...anywahere in the 36-41 pt range.....EDUCATED GUESS...ONLY! Also I dont think Wake has a huge home field edge...

Crazy Pressure on the line down to -4 before I seen -4.5 so passed. Did play 1st Half Under 22

MLB : NLCS Rockies @ Dbacks

Long rest makes me wonder if the OVER is an attractive play. However the long layoff for the hitters is just as concerning especially faced with such quality SP. Also the Colorado rockie momentum is probably gone by now. It carried into Philly after the SD playoff win but the time out does kill that IMO.

Personally I think you have to go with Webb here. He is the better SP despite Francis success against Arizona and Webb's somewhat inconsistency vs COL. Remember this is the Colorado Rockies a 500 road team which is a major improvement for them over previous seasons(only 262 BAA away). Some things about stats. First Webb was excellent in night starts while Francis was very medicore with a near 5 ERA(4.92). I consider a 6 PM start a nice game ( local time) No one expected anything from Francis at Philly but he was in a great situational spot with a day start . Now his success against Arizona is a thing of the past. He started once late in the year vs Arizona and lost to Webb at home. Now Webb pitched vs Col twice in Sept. The 1st time he struggled in the 1st inning allowing 3 runs on his way to a 4-3 loss. However he allowed just 5 hits in 7 innings that day. Far from a bad start. He allowed 3 runs and 3 hits in the 1st inning but just 2 hits one of which was a solo blast in the next 6 innings. Then followed it up with 2 runs in 7 innings at Coors. Much of what happened for these respective SP was in April and May a very long time ago. I think we may again see a 4-2 game here..with anything under -140 being cheap IMO.....

Note: Zona 15-9 at home vs LHP and 14-6 L20 @ Home vs LHP....

Play : ARIZONA -125 (lean und 7.5)

Week 6 NFL

PLAYS :

This weeks top two In my opinion :
Dallas Cowboys +5 and +210ML
Cheifs +3.5 -130 and +130 or better ML


Packers -2.5 -125 and UND 41
Jaguars -6.5
Miami +5
Ravens -9.5 (strong lean)
TB -2.5 (lean)

Comments:
Dallas +4.5 (and ML)

If you read my ramble then the Monday Nite game went down exactly as planned. No , I did not foresee Romo throwing so many picks or Buffalo having 3 non offensive TDS. However I did know the line was way too high , I did understand that situational it was a rough spot for Dallas playing 3rd away in 4 weeks a long way from home veresus a team getting its 1st MNF game in 14 years , I did know that Buffalo held a huge advantage in Special teams. They dont play the games on paper and you have to look and see what will change performances positive or negative.

Let me say this Sportsbooks dont create traps the human mind does. Books dont adjust lines very quickly and people think cause of 1 or 2 games lines look shady. When the yanks play poorly dont they still lay -200?? So keep that in the back of your mind. There is a method to there madness and unless they are getting killed by being OFF on a particular teams value the adjustments tend to be gradual.

I promise you this Dallas will look nothing like that on Sunday . They pressured Romo some and he just played poorly. This is not a road game and you would hope his comfort level increases at home even against NE. The difference here is you look at Buffalo across the field and you know you are the better team. Whether you mean to or not you you letdown IMO. Look Dallas played like shit and still managed to win. Take something from that.

There is no way that NE should go into Dallas laying 4.5 pts..no way. What happened last year when undefeated INDY went to DAL as a PK?? Has anyone given the DAL defense any props?? They have improved alot since the opener.

I dont see why this game is anything other then a PK'em except good ole public MISperception. My how things have changed...week 2 NE is only -3.5 at home vs SD but now is -4.5 @ Dallas.....I can assure you DAL is better then SD and that NE probably hasnt improved any the past few weeks even with Rodney Harrision's return. Read my ramble about NE being overrated in yesterdays game comments as well. I think Cle did a much better job on offense against the NE defense then Buffalo did at home vs Dallas. I wont even get into Xs and Os cause the line is bad and I try to bust inflated lines.....

DALLAS +4.5 & ML


Other week 6 Thoughts:

Bengals travel to Kansas City :
Right now the Bengals have a crisis at LB. They lost Lemar Marshall in there last game. Landon Johnson who left early has returned to practice and should play. However is Dhani Jones , Anthony Schlegel and Landon Johnson anything to get excited about?? We will have to wait and see what happens with Caleb Miller , Richard Jenty and Ahmad Brooks. We know now Jenty wont return and the other two are gametime decisions who havent praticed this week so looking unlikely. Larry Johnson ! While they are not exactly superstars but at least they arent guys coming off the streets either. So right now help doesnt appear on the way. The Bengals have not been able to stop the run due to the LB situation just ask Jamal Lewis. You have to think Larry Johnson off a 9 carry 12 yard performance is looking for an opportunity to make that a distant memory. The man has pride and an ego. We now know that Huard will start. You have to like what yo have seen from Dwayne Bowe. Since the loss to the Bengals last year the Cheifs are 7-2 at home losing to only Balt and now Jax. See something in common ?? Sick defenses maybe. Actually while we all agree KC offense isnt much to speak of look at there opponents. Week 1 you have to almost throw out cause Huard and LJ barely played in preseason. Since then @Chi , Minny , @ Sd , Jax...thats pretty damn tough and Cincy is nowhere near those teams. KC biggest problem on offense seems to be there OL. Which hopefully fares better versus a more manageable defense. Cincy is not for an OCT team . To me this is still the same KC team as last year that made the playoffs minus Roaf but with Bowe and Edwards. The Bengals are a watered down version that everyone expects to play better. I cant see why they will......

Cincy has to wonder about Willie Anderson ( now OUT I believe) and Rudi Johnson still. Though Kenny Watson is fine in my eyes. The problem with them lies in my rant yesterday. They lost Chris Henry to suspension and dont have any WR options after the TJ / CJ duo(67 of 101 receptions). They do not have a pass catching TE . Which means you have two options in the passing game or a check down to Watson....hard to move the ball like that even with studs. KC defense has played very well and Jax used to big plays to get there TDs. Now comes word CB Jonathan Joseph is OUT for the game because of a team policy drug violation. Marvin Lewis is right these guys dont have football as #1 on there mind . ( Though it was an offseason incident I believe)

Last year in the Opener the Bengals won 23-10 @ Arrowhead. However hard to weigh that game as KC loses there star QB in that game with the concussion that caused an 11 minute delay. At this point why lay points with Cincy on the road ??? As of now I see the value in the Cheifs and maybe UNDER 42.

Play: KC @ +3.5 and ML

Hou @ Jacksonville :

You have to respect Houston past history versus Jax going 8-2 ATS past 10 meetings and the Jaguars failure as a favorite in recent opportunities. I just think the teams are headed in different directions. The Jags lost there opener and have rebounded the past few weeks to the point where there defense is gonna make it tough to get any yards on the ground or points on the board. While Houston has some capable options in the passing game I really dont see any playmakers ( Andre Johnson is OUT). I simply question how many points they will score..thinking 14 while I fully believe that Jax get into the low 20's. Drew is starting to come around again and be that home run threat( Taylor looks to be a gametime decision). They owe there win vs a bad Miami team to Kris Brown plain and simple. I mean 3 FGS of 54 ++ yards is ridiculous. Great job though! You cant expect that every week. Previous to that Houston lost @ Atl and let Harrington have a very nice day. The home game versus Indy is misleading cause Jerome Mathis who is a beast took the opening kick to the house. He didnt even last the whole game and is now on IR. The guy is great but ALWAYS injured. When Indy failed to put Hou away 31-10 late ( real score was 27-10) the Texans found some life on offense. Jax -6.5 at the moment. Garrad is flying under the radar. DeMarco Ryans at LB is a gametime decison( huge loss IMO) and Naeole is for Jax on the OL. You have to wonder about Travis Johnson after last week as well....


Miami @ Cleveland:

Sure Cle has played better to date but they havent exactly been favored in any of these games either. So a different role which is a very different approach for them and anyone looking to back them. Now you have expectations to deal with. Cleo Lemon should be better this week after getting his feet wet and John Beck has potential if called upon. The Browns have struggled versus the run and here comes the HUMMER Ronnie Brown. Jamal Lewis has been largely ineffective except versus Cincy and only lasted 1 carry last week. He is a gametime decision. Miami has struggled to stop the run and defended the pass much better. It has 3 key players on defense that could be available Darius , Holliday ( OUT) and Crowder. So if Jason Wright is the starter or a less then 100% Jamal Lewis you may struggle to attack the Dolphins defensive flaw. Tough spot playing 3rd of 4 away but this team has 3 losses on the road by 3 pts..2 on late FG'S. Anderson has thrown 8 picks in 4.5 games of football which is an issue despite his superb play IMO. I think both defenses are improving. Cle did a good job in NE. Basically you have to look at the UNDER here IMO but look for reason to play it as this is a tricky matchup cause CLE has scored at home so Miami will need to score to cover / win ......and Miami as a role fade.....Not to forget was Cleo Lemon start @ Indy in the finale last year in a meaningful game . He looked pretty good that day to me....

Minny @ Chicago :

What I see here is you have a dome team outdoors ( scary), a returning QB who is turnover prone and doesnt garner my respect yet , and a Bears team off a nice win( as a dog remember) that really took every break possible in the 2nd Half to doso( and I had CHI). The Bears have NOT righted the ship just yet. They simply applied the pressure and watched GB self destruct. You have to weigh that Minny gave the Bears hell last year and right now CHI isnt as good as last year. The Bears needed a late turnover to win at Minny and while winning 23-13 at home they had a Hester punt return for a TD , a INT returned for a TD and a safety. What I am saying is the offense didnt do very much in 2 games. While the offense did some good things vs GB it took some perfect throws from Griese and nice grabs from Olson & Clark to accomplish that. I did not like how the Bear OL played at all( Tait and Brown gametime decisions now). It will be a huge task for Chi to run on Minny. If the OL doesnt protect better Griese again will rushed and his arm strength is lacking. This shapes up alot like when KC traveled to Chi and they gave the Bears all they could handle. A missed 47 yd FG ( Longwell is a better kicker then Rayner) and fumble late inside the opposing 25 were the difference(they lost by 10). Kinda think we should have seen -4 here.....leaning towards Minny +5.5, Und 37.5 or 1st H under....this will be a defensive battle IMO...have to look more at Minnys special teams play this year. Injuries still bugging da bears here...

Phi@ NYJ

With the Eagle injuries I think its best to look at this one later in the week. However Philly has played excellent defense at GB and @ NYG. This is certainly a plus when facing a Jet team that is probably not as offensively talented as rhe two of those opponents. Statement game for both teams . If Philly is healthy I have to think they win this though....NY has done nothing but show they dont know how to win. They blew the Miami lead and hung on , couldnt beat Buffalo who is offensively challenged at the moment and couldnt hold a 10 pt lead at home to the rival Giants because Pennington for as many good plays as he makes always seems to throw a duck at the wrong time. To many Jet issues IMO....Westbrook , Smith , and Sheppard ( now doubtful) ready to play , Thomas is a gametime decision. This line is getting up there now at 3.5/4 though...hard to not like philly but this line is getting ahead of itself for a team that still hasnt righted themselves. If it stays @ -4 maybe there is some value....Truts me I know Philly is 8-0 after a BYE and so does every person making these lines....


StLouis @ Balt :

The Ravens have shown that they can still play defense. That means the Rams makeshift OL , backup running back and QB will be in for a long day IMO. Its so tough to run on Balt at home and you have to do so with a banged up OL and rookie RB. Frerotte had 3 INTs at home!!! The rams have not scored an offensive TD in 2 games on the road vs Dallas and TB two other strong defenses. Dante Hall the man with there score is OUT . Bruce , Looker and Hall are OUT @ WR. As many points as this seems its not enough....Rams wont crack 10 points....and could make a few mistakes that give short fields and easy points to Balt who have broken twenty points ++ in both at home. Unfortunately the Ravens have been weak late in the game cause they led 20-3 and 17-3 at home by half. Really like Balt by 2 TDS here...as the Rams wont stop the run opening up the offense some especially with injuries at safety and CB returning...the Rams being 3.5 at home where effectively 10.5 dogs at Zona.....!!! Balt is better then Zona....arent they..?? This probably would be closer to -13 if Balt played better on the road.....they didnt so you get a soft line..looking for 24-10....BALT -9.5 but naturally so many points leaves one cautious with Mcnair questionable but likely to play. Boller is okay except for those untimely turnovers if he replaces. Rams getting some help now at CB with there starters returning but Chavous still out at Safety. Remember that SF has a good defense and Balt OL lost a few players in Flynn and Terry who replaced by youngsters who seized the moment as SF had NO sacks. Also Heap and Wilcox two important cogs of the offense @ TE didnt play severely hurting there red zone offense IMO. Just seeing how the offense played @ TB and @ Dallas I cannot expect alot of points here from STL..20 from Balt should do the trick......

Tenny @ TB :

Looks like the battle of the inept offenses. Before you go running to back VY and the Titans just look how awful he played and that was home last week. I did expect more of a PK line which makes me cautious about TB. TB wasnt going to run the ball IMO vs Tenny anyway( Graham has been fine though). I think there will be a premium on points here...the difference is Tenny is more prone to beat themselves. 3TDs and 5 INTs for VY and a whopping 146 yds passing per game. Now Brandon Jones looks doubtful and he is one of there better WRs. The running game is in trouble as Fisher lost faith in LenDale White after the fumble and Chris Brown did ZILCH!!! While the -3 bothers me looking at the past few weeks TB has garnered a tremendous amount of respect from the linesmakers. Out of nowehere seemingly they laid -3.5 to StL , they were only +3 @ Carolina, and +10 @ Indy...remember Denver was +10 the previous week. Looking back outside of NO the Titans were lucky to beat ATL and Jax they could be 1-3 easily right now. Garcia still hasnt thrown a pick either. After last weeks performance if TB doesnt give them any short fields I am not sure Ten cracks 14 pts....hoping to see this line come down ....

Wash @ GB :

At first glance I did lean towards Wash. Think the line is a bit soft cause of week 5. Skins blowut a bad team and GB gives one away. Wash could be really banged up and shorthanded here. Randle El , Washington and Daniels all appear OUT and are noteasily replaced. GB had 12 penalities and I think 5 turnovers and still barely lost. You have to be more impressed with GB strength of schedule more then anything else WASH has done....marquee win da EAGLES? This has 17-13 or 20-14 written all over it IMO GB and the UNDER 41...

Still researching the 4 PM games and SUNDAY , MONDAY niters....

Yesterday I had computer issues and couldnt really update my NFLthoughts and play card. On the only two posted plays I felt like I had two terribe beats. First in Tenn after much evalutaion I had flip flopped picks to the Titans simply believing ATL could not score enough. I was correct about that. All 13 pts were off turnovers ( and a fake punt) . However Tenny offense and VY were almost as bad and a late Bironas MISSED 45/46 yard FG sealed the deal. Didnt I say the Falcons ONLY chance here was a 4-7 loss and that was a SLIM hope?? That loss was my biggest side and killed a 4 team parlay ( Wash , Carolina and Zona ML). Then NYY which I had at +4 on the buy gives the game away with two HORRIBLE Pennington picks , the last a pick 6 that cost me the PUSH. Shit happens I ran the table basically after the 1 PM chaos. Had th eOver 43 Miami and that was FG city and Browns +17 pushes on a defensive score with 15 seconds to play....thats the NFL. What did I say yesterday...No two weeks are alike or Trent Dilfer said it. At least the YANKEES showed a pulse....make a value play IMO on the Yanks to win the World Series should be about 5 to 1 odds now..I have many reason why I will discuss that later on...


Buffalo Bills +10.5

One thing I am quite sure of the two most overrated teams in the NFL are the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys. The funny thing about the Patriots is after all this time they simple are hardly ever huge public plays. I felt the 16.5 line was fair yesterday but knew the move down to 15.5 meant trouble. Lets get into why I think this. How is NE overrated. First look at there opponents. We know now that the Jets are a mess . They cruised and why would anyone at this point not expect the PATS to be a well oiled machine. Come on now NE will not beat itself even with role players taking up for injured stars. We learned Randy Moss was back. The second game we learned that SD game 1 troubles versus CHI were no fluke. They impressively smoked SD but this is a team playing with a new head coach in his second game. Nice win but great spot for NE. The Bills bewteen defensive injuries and offensive issues showed @ Pitt and @ NE just how competitive they would be versus good defenses on the road. The Bengals...you cant win in the NFL when your entire linebacking core is decimated. Think they dressed 4 linebackers and two were gone by the end of quarter 1. Rudi Johnson loss was overrated cause I think Keny Watson is a wash basically. What people dont see beynd the two stud WRs is this team hasabsolutely nothing. They dont have a TE who can contribute in the passing game or a 3rd WR. So your playing one of the best OL and you have no linebackers?? Wasnt hard to think Cincy had to pick a poison...sell out to stop the run or the pass. Either way eventually NE would adjust and attack. Which is exactly what happened. With all the Moss hype , Bengals defended the pass when NE came out throwing. Once it was clear what was going on they just feed Sammy Morris and started moving the chains. When Cincy has the ball you basically have to cover the two star WRS and thats it. Obviously there studs and you cant do it every down but all you need to do is force them into situations where Cincy has to make plays to move the chains and the percentages are just not in there favor. The loss of Chris Henry is killing them. This week. Browns moved the ball but Anderson threw some early picks. No Jamal Lewis turned the game. The Browns should have lead 7-3. The NFL is easy to figure....follow the momentum. Cle plays great DEF
holds NE to 3 after 1st goal at the 3 yd line. Not suprisingly CLE drives it down to the NE 1 on the immediate possession.Lewis is out and only try 1 time on 3 downs to run it. With Anderson being picked off on third down.....HUGE momentum switch to the PATS. Backed up Cle holds NE and they punt. Next Anderson pass picked off again!! Pats ball at the 32 Yd of Cle next NE pass.....TD!!! A 7-3 Brown lead turns into 10-0 NE. Again be realistic you cant play from behind with NE. Little while later again CLE plays great defense to hold NE to a FG when 1st and goal. So 13-0 mid 2nd quarter. Again though Anderson throws a pick !! Setting up NE with a short field. Soon thereafter 20-0. My point here is CLE played well enough on defense that NE was unable to drive the length of the field to get points. Cle mistakes turned into NE TDS. So its not NE playing so well its the opponent playing so poorly. That in some ways is a factor of NE defense but not entirely.Third quarter not much doing as Cle gets 3 on the board. To start the 4th Cle is driving and scores again. Of course up 20-0 in some ways NE is on cruise control. Now though 20-10 NE wakes up and does what they couldnt do all game and that drive the field for a TD. Now after some punts Cle gets a short field and scores another TD 27-17. What this shows is with good field position you can score on NE defense IMO. Teams were 6 for 6 in the red zones scoring TDS before this game. NE get sthe ball and moves again inside the 10 yd line for 1st goal but again Cle turns them away. Electing for obvious reasons to go for it on 4th down NE puts nothing on the board. Starting atthe Cle 4 with 42 seconds left Cle completes a pass but they fumble and Gay just scoops it up and walks in for the TD. If thats not one of the worst backdoor covers in history I dont know what is. Cle even managed to get to NE 10 yd line after that but couldnt score.

The point is NE didnt dominant them here. They did what NE always does and didnt beat themeselves instead waiting for there opponent to self destruct. It easily could have been CLE 7-6 at HALFTIME....and again @ Cincy the Bengals had no chance with the injuries and current state of the team.

Dallas is very similiar. Look at the schedule . The Rams are banged up in the secondary and on offense. Yet the game should have been 7-7 at half. Romo pulled that run out of his ass and the late TD made it 14-7. Whats also missed is that STL missed a 28 yd FG and right thereafter thats when DAL scored its TD. Again a MOMENTUM switch. You just cant have these mistakes and expect to compete in hostile road enviroments. The Rams is secondary is actually in much worse shape then Buffalos. They had no answer for Crayton who scored big twice and made it 28-17. However with 1st and goal the Rams fluttered and Bulger was picked..in the end zone. Instead of 28-14 late 3rd quarter and still somewhat competitive game the INT turns nto 7 more for Dallas. Game over. Not as impressive as the misleading outcome. Previously the traveled to Chi and beat a Bear team who had no offense and benched the QB right after the game. It looks impressive cause what CHI did last year but reality is Chi was in turmoil. The feeling is Dallas tends to struggle on grass. Look at how bad Miami is and the Dolphins lead in the 3rd quarter!! They needed a 4th down 4th quarte TD to seal the win !Dallas lead 10-6 at halftime and scored on the 1st possession after half to lead 13-10. Then midway through the third quarter a huge Crayton punt return gave Dal a short field and eventual TD to lead 17-13 with about 5 to play third quarter. Then Miami started to shot themselves in the foot so to speak and UNRAVEL. Green throws an INT that leads to a FG now 20-13. See though momentum shifts lead to points though. Miami gets the ball moves into the 50 and then fumbles leading to another FG 23-13 11min to play. Exchange punts and Miami again moves to the 50 before another INT!So 23-13 with 4 to play 4th and 5 at MIA 34 then TO ices with a TD catch with Miami stacked at the line. Romeo only 14 of 29 and Julius Jones struggled. Again another win where the boxscore is misleading. The opener was nothing but a shootout they won. The best game DAL has played is @ Chi and that to is misleading. A quote...Tony Romo looked desperate early on, scrambling, rushing throws and doing all he could to avoid the Chicago defense. The only thing he didn't do was go away. This was 3-3 game at half and Dal just 4 of 13 on third down. Simply put Dal and NE will not beat themselves. Just like the Yankees in baseball though give them that 4th out and they will pile it on you in a hurry.

So thats my rant about these teams being OVERRATED.

Tonite I think Buffalo is a tough venue. Great crazy home crowd getting a MNF game. Dallas having to travel for the third time in 4 weeks to play in cool and crisp Buffalo. Oh and that game next week vs NE. Which I think two cocky guys TO and Romo are definetly looking past Buffalo to NE..TO was chirping about NE in week 2 !!!! I think even with the injuries Buff secondary with Whitner and McGee back is better then the makeshift dbs they saw @ Miami and versus StL. Thats my opinion. Jones isnt running the ball great but is still getting the ball. A team like Buf will be tough on special teams and Jauron is gonna play the game slow to keep his team in it. Thats what is good about Jauron. He doesnt mind small ball. Edwars will be a little nervous probably in his MNF debut but that should disappear quickly. Edwards in the 1st H had his offense in NYJ territory in 3 of the 4 possessions. a Robert Royal fumble killed one drive , a 1st down sack putting them in 2nd and 17 killed the second opportunity and the last one was killed by a Edwards INT. Then 1st possession after the half Buffalo gets it right and drives for a TD. After a NYJ score they get it back and drive again into NYJ territory and score three more. Making it 5 of 6 possessions in NYJ territory(inside the NYJ 40). Next Buff possession again he drives them and scores again 17-7!! With 6 consecutive drives into opposing territory. The last possession was up 17-14 and all they did was try to run clock and pick up a 1st down. They didnt but this kid Edwards moved the ball on 6 straight drives giving Buffalo a chance. Dallas will be w/o Anthony Henry and Newman is probably still less then 100% so we know you can move the ball on Dal through the air. The kid Lynch can run the ball.

I look for Buffalo to move the chains and keep it up out Dal hands. Dont forget Lee Evans is still a deep threat and RB Lynch still a homerun threat when he touches it. The key is Buff not shooting themselves in the foot. When they have a chance to score get those points on the board and do there best to limit big plays on offense for Dal and keep them to 3 instead of 7. Buff has shown in 2 home games they are gonna be in the game and Dal has shown in both road games they take a HALF to wakeup ( 3-3 @ chi , lead 10-6 @ Miami). I really dont see how Buff is much worse if at all then Miami. Who needed a 47 Folk FG and 4th& 5 TD to put the Phins away (20-13 atthe time). After Miami gave Dal the game. Buffalo had allowed 15 pts per at home on 400yards...bend dont break defense for sure. The offense looks to have a chance to move the ball with Edwards not at the helm.

Dallas went from -3 @ Miami to -10 or more @ Buffalo...perception has gotten way ahead of these teams and that is how value is created.....I actually think since focus could be an issue for Dal that Buffalo has a minor chance to win this game outright.....Dallas got 9 turnovers in Miami and Chi thats ridiculous. I think the line should be closer to -6 or -7 here. As for the total the 1st H under is extremely inviting...I'll be back with more on that. I dont think its that unbelievable that BUF wins this game and then a s asmall hoe dof Dallas beats NE next week. I think if Dal wins but doesnt really cover the line will be NE -1.5 if they lose SU +3 and if they win convincingly PK to Dal -1.5 . Plus I have a Yankee game to talk about. Good Luck

Side Note : The fact that Buffalo hasnt played on MNF in 14 years has to be a positive factor . As well as the Everett situation .


Yankees
Game #4 ALDS

One thing is if you dont know that sinkerballers are better tired then on long rest you should be studying the game abit more. So I dont feel the need to discuss that angle. I will say though Torre was very foolish to not let Wang pitch at some point at the end of the reg season. The reason why he ucked on the road in Game 1 was cause he was on to long rest.

As I mentioned earlier I think taking a stab at the Yankees to win the World Series is an excellent value play here. First you should get somewhere around 5-1. Second is if NY wins tonite they have all the momentum even going back to Cle. Why ? Cle will be pressured not to choke. However Pettitte has already shown he is throwing well and can pitch @ the jake. On the flip Sabathis didnt look so sharp vs NYY and you would have to give Pettitte the edge in that matchup IMO. So winning this series gives us Colorado Rockies like momentum. Then we face Boston on Friday I believe. Beckett will be on a ton of rest but we have handled Beckett fairly well recently. Bos will have lost all there momentum due to the time off and NYY will be playing with. Boston will have the better setup SP wise on paper but I'll take Hughes in Game 1.

Tonite a few things stick out. Naturally the price is one. There were few instances that Wang was below -180 at home. The low was early vs Wakefield laying -150. Wang was injured out of Spring Training so it probably took hima month to get right. Those early season starts dont carry much weight with me. This guy was -170 late in the season vs Roy Halladay and laid heavy wood when facing quality teams and SP .

We know the Yanks are loaded with LHB and are 75-50 vs RHP this year. Byrd despite good stats on the road has allowed LHB to hit 322 and 369 the past 2 years. I think his new found splitter has helped some but still he has allowed 259 hits past 2 years to LHB. The past 2 season in NITE starts he is . 304BAA , 4.88 ERA and .333 BAA and 5.66 ERA. Tonite's lineup is 35/116 career off him and Mientkiewcz was 5/8 last season in KC.

Wang was 10-4 2.75 ERA at home this year , 11-3 3.03 ERA last year an 13-2 and 12-3 at nite in these seasons.Batters only hit 235 off him at the Stadium.

Now the three day situation isnt as new as its made out to be. In 2005 he started(77pitches) and then 3 days later in May came in relief to face Bos. His results were okay 4 2/3 innings 6 hits 2runs. This also was his 1st career relief appearance. The next situation was 2006. On 6/1 he started threw 73 pitches in a subpar outing then on 6/3 he came into close a game and went 2/3 of inning (15pitches) for the save. Then 6/6 he went on to start and be solid lasting 109 pitches. So the concern is pretty alleviated IMO especially when Wang is a sinkerballer. In 11 of his last 14 at Home the opponents have managed 3 runs or less for the game.

Now the Yanks have some momentum and a quick 1-2-3 inning in the Top of the 1st would be awesome. Byrd last 2 innings allowing 7 runs in his lone 2007 start vs NY. He was hit hard his last 3 starts and really his last 5 were below average. I expect Byrd to be prepared butsits been awhile since he started. Long rest has been a plus for him before in his career. I dont think Cle is hitting all that well at all and face a tough SP who should go 6 maybe even 7 or 8 innings depending on pitch count. I have to say I was disgustedto see Joba in the 7 yesterday cause I wanted him fresh as possible. Hughes only threw 60 something pitches. If you get Joba and Mo for the 8th and 9 you have to pray for Wang to go 7 innings cause I dont know who we use maybe Mussina probably Vizcaino though...

last thing is the total first it was 9.5 last nite. Wang is a huge upgrade over Clemens while Byrd is a slight downgrade over Westbrook who had pitched so well away of late. Tonite you will see 10 maybe 10.5 total. I think it was lucky to see 12 runs last nite and go over. On the road Cle hits 256 compared to NYY 306 vs RHP. Tribe are 5-21 past 26 trips to NYY.The yanks 3 games with Culbreth behind the dish this season were all low scoring UNDERS.

Yankees -1.5 Runs -130 Under 10 +115. Of note Wang when allowing 5 + earned runs is 11-3 in his next start with all 3 losses well pitched outings he allowed 3runs or less...

The NFL..Remember this - Rarely are two weeks alike in the NFL , at leats in my 14 years..-Trent Dilfer

Titans -8

Suprisingly this has become one of my favorite plays of the day. I say that cause like most at first glance we think Falcons have played fairly well this season and 8 points is alot. Well then I thought about ATL prior lines. This team was catching a FG at home vs a banged up Hou team. Yes, I loved ATL last week but that means they would have been about 10 dogs @ Hou w/o key players. How bout 4 pt dogs vs a medicore Carolina team...Bottomline is Tenny will stop the run and has a solid defense. Lets not forget the ATL offense in its 2 road games...lean UNDER here like 27-10. We always say in the NFL just pick the SU winner cause the spread rarely comes into play...well I dont think many think ATL wins this game with Titans off the BYE..so basically most ATL backers expect a 4-7 pt loss...you can see then how little room you have actually backing ATL then..what happens if they fall behind quick..??

NYJ +3.5 or +4

I would have to say that NYG will probably still have a slight home field edge here. We cant be that happy with the NYG offense of late. Philly was w/o Sheppard and Dawkins. How bout the 1st H @ Wash...vs GB...??? Plax versus the Jets will be interesting but the you just never know how he feels when he steps on the field. Umenyiora is a gametime decision after a career game...expect a flat performance here if he plays....thinking 1st H Under......

LONG , LONG list of plays I am contemplating :


Arizona -3.5 / Under 40.5 : Many injuries on the offenses sides. So hard to lay it with Zona on the road but STL OL is ravaged , the secondary is banged up , plus no Bulger , Jackson , or Bruce...solid reserves though

Under 41 Tenny or team UNDER ATL..

Under 43.5 Carolina : The Saints defense is banged up but what has the offfense done?? David Carr at QB ....

Browns +17 -120 : You hate to fade NE. However the Browns are NOT the pathetic Bills...

Last week Oak looked so easy catching 4.5 from miami. Here at 1st glance DET looked so easy catching 3.5 from Wash. However Wash is off a BYE and did lay 3.5 to the NYG...leaning Skins now and 1st H under...

Tough game @ KC but lean towards the home team but definetly not playing this one...Jax is a wildcard..

Over 43 Miami : The Miami defense is a mess plain and simple...3 games allowing 30+++. oak scored 38 throwing 12 times!!!!! That even with injuries makes me lean towards to Houston...I wouldnt be suprised if Hou won a late FG 27-24..

Under 41 NYG : Where the OFFENSE...??

Seattle +6 ...early cross country start. I never thought Pitt was that good but Seattle hasnt shined either.....the offense is barely cracking 20 points....

Be back shortly.....GL

Right now for NCAAF I have ...

Wyoming -2.5 -120
Houston +10.5
Under 54 Texas ( Under 28 1st H )
Mid Tenn State +10.5
Florida Atlantic +17
Over 60 BC
Duke +7.5
Kansas +4 & 1st H Under 27.5 -115
Cent Mich +13
Zona +3.5 -120
Over 63 Arizona State @ Wash State
USC -21.5 even 1st Half


4team Parlay: GaTech ML , Georgia -1.5 , Ohio State -7 & Mich State -16.5

With Wyoming simply feel TCU is overrated and there offense struggles at tough road venues. Due to altitude Wyoming is a tough place to play.

With Houston feel that Bama is offensively challenged to a degree and the Cougars play better then expected after last weeks home loss. A Bama win but by a TD...

Recent Texas / Oklahoma games have been low scoring. Texas offense is messed up and McCoy is banged up. We know about the OU defense but there offense faces an under the radar UT defense .Lets say 31-14 game.....Oklahoma will be ready after the upset in COL....

Mid Tenn State cause they have been solid at home facing a notoriously poor road team. The UVA win versus Pitt is smoke and mirrors as the young QB Pitt played certainly feed UVA's momentum early. Just feel that UVA isnt as good as last weeks final which inflates the line here ...

Florida Atlantic is a little scary but not sold on USF offense. They didnt show much vs WVU last week. FAU should be able to score some points at home...figure 31-14 type game...as I think USF success is due to its defense...

The parlay is simply think GT veteran defense and ground game will limit Marylands offense no matter who starts at QB , Tenny doesnt seem to be as good as there home scores might indicate. The Bulldogs are proven on the road .. , and I thought Ohio State and Mich State opened soft. Nwestern looked pitiful at Ohio State and Mich State is improving.

The Over 60 with Boston College is tricky. I admit the total being pressed up a few points opened my eyes to this. Both QBs can sling it and both defenses pass defenses are its weaker points. Feel that regardless of the point spread BC cracks 40 and BG cracks 20...Also some defensive injuries for both...deciding if I play the 1st H over , the game over or gamble and wait till halftime to play it...

LEANS: Ill -2.5 , Indiana -13.5 , Under 52 Ill / Wisconsin , 1st Half Under Kansas , LaTech +13 , Temple ML , Over 68 Ball State

GOOD LUCK....

2nd Half thoughts:

GaTech -3 think they shot themselves in the foot on both sides of the ball and we wont see that again in the 2nd H.

Fucked around with small plays on Ill , Nwestern , Kansas ..usually my undoing...BOL

Now in the afternoon games I have to say I am scared about the Oklahoma total now at 56 with me on both the game Under and 1st H under....oh by the way I will be pissed if the Kansas game goes UNDER after losing the 1st H by the HOOK with 3 straight possession TDS in the final 11 minutes before HALF!!!Still considering Georgia and already playing Flordia Atlantic in the USF letdown spot..thats all for the moment


MLB Playoffs....

Personally I just cant condone anything in game 1 ...the line says take Chi -190 and Over 10....I do like Chi but at 10 runs technically I really like the UNDER. However when lines are inflated at Wrigley there tends to mean the ball will be flying out of there and with a contact pitcher like Livan out there...oh boy...Hill has been solid and was nasty last outing . What I do suggest is not playing the Cubs -1.5 though...a sucker bet to me here....if you like Zona settle for +1.5 RL rather then ML IMHO......

Be back with more CFB...for 2nd Players I like Over 28.5 Wash State as te pace picked up before half and we get the discounted line...and Zona -1.5 or +3 whatever you prefer...everything went Ore State way till the late pick 6 which should change the momentum for the 2nd H


Not sure about anymore at this point.....really like ECU +3.5 but waiting till halftime. Lean towards Rutgers...I mean Maryland -18 then Cincy -3.5...your gonna tell me Cincy is clearly better then Maryland...and by 2 TDS..?? Ohio State and Fla also intrigue me but the UNDER @ LSU leads the way as my most likely lean...gl

Well my Yankees went down in flames yeterday. Its rea.lly not the upset its being made out to be. It was CC Sabathia on the hill and we do have a lackluster away record vs LHSP. Anyway my gripe is with Joe Torre and the media. It's the managers and coaching staff sole job to put his players in a position to succeed. Well letting Wang have 8 or 9 days bewteen starts is a RECIPE for disaster. We all know that such extended rest for a sinkerballer is a disaster waiting to happen. So why didnt Joe better set up his playof rotation?? Cause Joe does the same shit all the time , he hopes for the bst cause he is managing a roster full of All Stars. Well in l;ife hoping doesnt get you very much. Just ask his disiciple Willie Randolph at Shea. Guility of the aame crime. So IMO the game was lost when you had Wang on anything more then 6 days rest. Case closed! Has nothing to do with Wang so called suspect numebrs on the road...nothing!! Well Carmona is a similiar pitcher with his power to seamer arsenal. Wedge could be making the same mistake as Carmona has been rested since 9/26. I made a mistake taking such a low UNDER 8.5 / 9 in that situation. Alot of thing spointed to an over. However with roughly the same caliber SPs and available relievers we have a 9.5 / 10 total. Thats some value even with Carmona being a bit of a concern. You figure US Yankees are desperate. That means any close game could see Joba and Mo for 3 maybe even 4 innings of work with an off day on Saturday.

Numbers we have Pettitte winning 5-3 @ the Jake vs Westbrook and getting a 10 total. We have Laz Diaz 8.50 runs per game past 2 seasons and 22-14 UNDER this season. Of note Pettitte in the past has good career numbers when Diaz is behind the dish 5-1 record with the only loss being Scutaro walkoff HR vs Rivera. Sometrhing liek 14 runs in those 6 games by the opponents. This is basically a late day game where carmona had a 2.14 ERA and 9-1 record( 8-4 UNDER). Pettitte was 7-3 UNDER in the day and excluding his last start @ Balt had solid numbers. I think this is 5-3 or 5-4 game.....

In the early game like yanks but not the price so much. Might go with Yanks +110 series cause if we win here I like our chances....Shadows could play into this....

So far UNDER 10 runs ( 9.5 is good as well) GL

Side Note : NYY is 15-4 this year after allowing 10 runs. Which tells me they bounce back after bad beats. Remember the 19-1 drubbing Cle laid on us in 2006?? We won the next day!!! This year we are also 7-11-1 O/U in those 10 runs + situations. With the total in the 9 and 9.5 range (currently 9.5 runs here) Yanks 24-33 and Cle 31-44. Cle 20-28 O/U when facing LH's. We know about Pettitte's playoff pedigree and his Yankee stopper status. Cle is 13-23 o/u facing a team ith a winning record since the break and NYY is 23-12 in these situations SU. If I have this correct le is something like 53-89 O/U past 3 years in the day and I believe 12-31 o/u this season....also Carmona and Hughes total was 9.5 ....the price is justr to high for NYY for me...despite 4-0 in the ALDS after losing game 1 and game 2 of a series record 33-18 vs Cle 28-23...


What a fucking game!!! Props to both SP tonite. I cant believe those flies at the JAKE....seriously WTF is that ?? Thats how you beat Joba I guess. Let the flies loose and disrupt him on the mound...bottomline is 1 runs wasnt going to win the game...lets GO YANKEES!!!

I got tied up and the game just kicked off. Was really looking hard at the UNDER 62 / 63 but decided to pass. Had thought about the 1st half UNDER 31 as well. For some reason I was just scared to pull the trigger. Just looking at what the Ville has done outside of Murray State I dont think laying 2 TDS vs an improving Utah squad had value.

So I took the UTES +14.5...waiting to see what the Half score obviously I will be kicking myself if its lows like I thought...


Still thinking about the Over 9 @ Boston...same total as last nite with more question marks from the SP and Vlad better when he plays RF and the lineup is deeper with Rivera or Morales IMO...

Well upon further review I think both lineups have failed to see these SP which is a big plus for Dice K. Escobar last few @ Fenway have been solid. I think Escobars little rut was shoulder fatigue and he seemed solid @ Oak on Sat. I think we see a 5-4 game here worst case so I would only recommend an UNDER if you had 9.5...played it very small...very...almost not worth mentioning...really what drove me was the over reliance of recent stats from many people looking at this game...you have to understand why things happen IMO.......BOL GO YANKEES!!

Day 1 of the 2007 MLB playoffs went largely as I had expected. No real suprises IMO.

Today we start with Col @ Philly once again. Alot being made of the Phillies displeasure with the time slot they have been given due to the shadows. The funny thing is Philly has played a few 3 PM day games at home this year and put some runs up if I recall correctly. I do think its in there head some but really someone should reveal the proper data to them. It may be harder to see the ball but there performance hasnt been really affected that much.

One thing I see is both pitchers dont tend to go deep in games . Kendrick tends to be the 90 pitch count area while Morales is more like 80. Not sure if they will be extended beyond that but if it is notthen by the top of the 7th both pens should be involved. Kendrick has been hit in his 2 starts vs COL. while Morales blanked Philly through 5 @ Citizens. One note with Morales is team seeing him a 2nd time have hit him harder then the first. See SFG and LAD who had a fairly different lineup. So I think that maybe some of his success is due to people not getting a look at him. Philly has seen him and I expect him to get hit today. Though Ed Hickox tends to be an UNDER umpire this year the one thing I see is ONLY 10 of his 31 starts had totals of 10 to 11 runs. Showing me he had a lot of good SP matchups evidenced by his 5.5 runs per game allowed by starters when he is calling strikes. Previous season he lends to be biased towards overs and was 19-11 OVER with 10.30 ++ runs per game.

Two young SP with somewhat overworked bullpens should lead to runs being scored today. Yesterday we saw a bunch of HRS but they were solo shots. The ball will carry.


So while I like Philly here I think Over 10 runs -120 presents more value. Thats my initial play for today. Looking at the UNDER @ Cleveland if I can get 9 runs ....GL


In the evening game we travel to the JAKE as Wang squares off against Sabathia. While the NYY have struggled all season on the road vs LHP they have improved of late. However IMO they still do not hit quality LHP that well and will have 5 true LHB in the lineup. While AROD has good carer numbers vs CC they came years ago. Sabathia has rounded into the stud we thought he would be when he arrived on the scene. This year Arods 275 vs LHP doesnt look imposing. Check those away games vs Bedard , Kazmir , Francis , etc and see not many runs scored my us. Its really not a new thing since we basically switched from Sheff to Abreu in RF mid season 2006.

One thing under the radar will be the numebrs Wang sports when he starts with more then regular reat ( more then 5 days). In 10 starts this season he he is 7-1 3.11 ERA with a 257 BAA. Last year he was 6-1 2.70 ERA in 9 starts with a 244 BAA. Not to forget are his excellent numebrs under the lights : 25-5 3.50 ERA past 2 years!!!

Really we all know how good both guys can be. Mix in the fact that Cle didnt come into the series on fire offensively it should help Wang even more. NYY did come in red hot offensively but facing a different class of pitcher. Both guys have strong options in the pen here with Jo Bo being the exception closing it for Cle. I prefer the NYY here but not sure about price. If for some reason NYY went to even money or better I might bite. Till the UNDER 9 is my play here.....GL


So pissed at myself for missing out on the fact that Wang had NOT pitched since 9/26 . Thats why to much for a sinkerballer even one who throws 95 MPH....Not saying I owuld have played the OVER but I would have laid off the UNDER ofr sure.....details, details , details....my bad!!

Staying away from the late game I thought the line should have been chi -120 / 8.5 hich is basicaly where it is. So I passed as I missed out on the value at Under 9 and Ari +130 or better. Anyway went with Over 28 or 28.5 in the South Carolin game. A few silly mistakes have cost the teams points. The fumble going in on the 1 , the bad Woodson toss INT in the end zone , couple a short FGs. Woodson got his bell rung but I believe he is okay to big a stage to not try and seize the moment IMO. We could see OT. Alot of things aid an over here. My belief was 1st H under 28.5 and then 2nd H over . To bad I didnt play that way....GL

Well Marshall really shot themselves in the foot last nite. Absolutely awful gameplanning in the 1st Half with the playing call in the 1st quarter and the questionable decision to not run the ball with 3 minutes remaining till hbalf. Then second half fumbles inside the twenty and on the FG cost them an easy SU win. They arent very good but Mem did exactly what I thought they would realy stopping Mem on just 1 drive over the final 3 quarters...ML lost , +3 pushed and +3.5 won..depending on how u played it. The 1st H was low scoring and at 28 created nice value in 2nd H over.

Early baseball playoffs...short on time at the moment...

One thing overlooked is Jeff Francis solid numbers in day starts most of which have been in Aug and Sept. he stunk up twice vs Philly but they were nite starts. Not an excuse but not entirely the same situation IMO. Since his last bad outing at Philly he has been solid 3 straight. I dont think COL pen is that worn out as most pitchers went 1 inning with low pitch counts.

The Rocks could be drained and really didnt hit the SD pen till Hoffmann came in. Funny when you look at Peavy and Hoffmann as the two sure things from SD. Anyway bot teams lackluster numbers vs LHP. Rocks only 252 away and have never seen Hamels off a 116 pitch dominant outing. High pitch count is concerning but he says he is okay. Only 233 last 10 but no LH starters in that mix. Philly 272 at home vs LHP and 212 last 10 struggling vs Matt Chico recently.

Francis in road day starts allowed 8 runs in 36 2/3 innings spanning 5 starts. So the pen may not be such a concern anyway.

Hamels some minor issues in day starts in his early career. Just not sure 2 April home starts carry much weight as well as 1st start after the break. TGhe only other home day start was recently vs Wash which was solid and nats do hit LHP fairly well. He is 10-3 3.22 ERA in 17 starts on regular rest. Where Francis is 12-5 in 22 starts with a 3.62 ERA on regular rest. Long rest he was a 5.74 ERA and 314 BAA..check cbssportsline for the complete breakdown.

Anyway I prefer the Under looking for 9.5 but will take 9 especially at even. I feel 8.5 is the fair total here. Also see value in Col +1.5 runs and Under 1st 5 innings.....

Good Luck be back later!!


Tough matchup @ Fenway. I have this line much closer to -130 though. My concern about making this a value play is that Matthews is OUT hurting the LAA defense. Vlad is banged up relegated to DH which puts a banged up Figgins in RF. My point is the inflated line due to health issues like what we saw when the Pats traveled to Cincy on Monday?? Hoping its the perception of Lackey @ Fenway.

Sure Boston has the better lineup and Lackey has issues @ Fenway. Heres my deal though look at Lackeys numbers 2005 -2007 only. Basically cause that is the guy toeing the rubber tonite. Both SP have a long ago history of being money pitchers in the playoffs. The stats still arent great BUT take out Lackeys last outing which came after a nite game @ Tor and was a 1PM start in Fenway. Plus Lackeys day splits not so sharp this season. His other stats are serviceable like 6 inn 3 run types.

Lackey is 11-5( team 12-5) 2.73ERA away and 15-5 (17-5)2.55ERA at nite. Beckett is 9-5 (10-7) 4.17 ERA and 11-6(11-8) 3.71 ERA at nite . Really you want Beckett in the day on the road cause thats where his numbers are strongest. Also there is a misconception out there that Manny and Papi OWN Lackey. Its again not the past 3 seasons...they hit him well but Manny 4/12 and Papi 5/13 with I think 1 Hr combined isnt all that alarming....Lowell only 3/12 lifetime.

So played at +160 think +150 or better is very nice value. The total is a headache. I do think UNDER @ 9 looks tempting. What scares me is both guys allow enough hits where 1 mistake could be 3 runs. Both guys have proven to be bulls in the postseason and on the season.So leaning towards that UNDER but not sure...GL


Still thinking about that late game in Zona . Did play the Cubbies to win the series though based on Zambrano , Hill and Lilly with a solid pen outside of closer Dempster. Easily the better lineup on paper.

The CFB game. Lets see 3rd string QB who is a redshirt freshman making his 1st start. Oh and the line didnt budge...I have to think that normally that would call for a line adjustment. Its easy to see Fletcher running wild on Rice and the Eagle defense stepping up after last week. So if I had to guess I would say SoMiss wins 38-14. Based mainly on Rice being awful on the road facing an angry defense. Oh and the linesmakers telling you while we havent seen M.Young play we are confident enough to hold the line...simple logic.....GL


Well the value play on LAA was a sucker bet plain and simple. Rarely do I feel fooled when looking at a game. Like I mentioned earlier was the inflated line a bi-product of way to much Boston love OR a sign of just how banged up LAA is and how flat they would be. We now know the answer. Just very disappointed I didnt play the UNDER at 9 runs. Even liking LAA there only shot at winning was a low scoring game.

As for the CFB game so far I am clueless there it seems. Funny I guess. The line most of held 21 cause Reeves played!! Well that logical analysis was thrown out the window quickly. The Eagles look flat from what I have seen . You almost have to entertain a 2nd H over here.

The last order of business is although I like Chicago the line has been pounded to the point where all the value is sucked out of them. I dont like Chi at +115 dont exactly like Arizona but dont like the price here. What I did was play the late UNDER. You look at Zambrano away and his numbers are so solid along with his nite data. Webb has been tough at home and sports a very inexperienced postseason lineup facing a pitcher they really havent ever faced . Who happens to be inconsistent but Cy worthy on many nites. Webb is a former Cy Young winner. Both SP hold rHB to a 200baa......late nite UNDER 7.5 Runs....welcome to the playoffs. GL

After further review I actually think Southern Miss may be done here. No idea what to take 2nd H and would only lean UNDER and Rice +8.5...GL

Tonite there is only one game to look at : Marshall @ Memphis in CFB.

At first glance we know both teams have poor defenses. I think what cant be missed is level of competition. Marshall has played WVU , @ Miami and @ Cincy. All 3 sport sound defenses and Cincy and Miami excel on that side of the ball. I know someone is thinking what about the loss at home to New Hamphsire. Well maybe it was a bit of a hangover after the collapse to WVU , maybe a bit of arrogance on there part after playing WVU so tough for 3 quarters , maybe Bernard Morris sitting mearly the entire 1st H?? Tough to decipher but New Hamp is somewhere around top 15 in 1 AA. Now how much different is a mid major then 1 AA these days?? What I am saying is the loss as bad as it looks?? Maybe not IMO. Alot of Marshall's points allowed IMO are due to the fact they have turned it over versus these tough defenses and I include WVU in that. The turnovers lead to short fields. Which in effect makes Marshall's defense look worse then it truly is. Memphis on the other hand hasnt played much of anyone getting shredded for 1000yards by Ark St and UCF ( which I think is an explosive offense for sure). The wildcard for them is the death of a player but also how they bounce back from there THURS collapse. No one knows how it effects them here. What I do know is the kid hadnt played at all this year. Which begs me to ask how much of a part of the team was he?? Horrible question to ask. There are those looking for Memphis pysche or motivation here. I just dont see this as the motivation angle its being used as. As well as the feeling at memphis of the bad stuff just piling on. You just had a historic collapse @ Ark St then 2 days later a teammate is murdered. The what next feeling has to be in there heads.

Then there is Memphis tough schedule with 3 games in 11 days or so. Not to underemphasize there collapse vs Ark St on Thursday , probably take Fri off , pratice and prepare for Marshall on Sat and Sun . Then the shocking , horrific news. With the twist that this murder seems premeditated and not a random act. Cant imagine much getting done on Monday @ Memphis. I think focus here is a monumental task for the Tigers. Marshall on the other hand is off a BYE WEEK with a ton of time to prepare and rest up ( get healthy). Where Memphis injuries dont have much time to heal. Certainly different personnel then last year but Marshall beat up Memphis pretty good. Bernard Morris is playing well and facing a so-so defense at best with injury issues. Now understand Morris missed nearly the entire 1st H vs NH and still threw for 417 yds and 3 scores!!!! WOW! The Thundering Herd should see a spike in rushing stats cause this isnt Miami , Cincy or WVU .

At first glance I thought memphis would get there first win here till I broke it down. I aksed myself does memphis know how to win?? They outplayed Ole Miss and lost and the 31-6 halftime lead @ Ark State that saw a 29-0 second half. I dont think they know how to win. Which would scare me backing them as chalk. Lastly I think a fair line is PKem but because of Marshall schedule and Memphis close losses its been inflated.....

My feeling is play Marshall ML or buy it to +3 if you rather feel safe..however I expect Marshall to win SU...will wait till halftime to see if a 2nd H over is worth it..usually would have to be a lower scoring 1st H GOOD LUCK

Side Note : watching ESPN pregame it looked like thye had a beautiful turnout for Taylor Bradford..very sad story..

April 20th

Tigers -107 {6units}-2.5 RL +240 {1unit}
Over 4.5 -120 Tigers team {3units}
Over 5-120 1st Half {2units}
Over 9.5 -105 {2units}

Upon first glance Durbins number's are gross every way you slice them. The key thing for me here is situation. The 1st two starts of 2007 were away in the day now we are home and at nite. He knows its now or never and despite the gross nuymbers vs CHI career wise I have faith. First the ONLY Sox with any success off him is Konerko and he is in a deep slump. The slump either continue Or Durbin helps him come out of it. Paulis 11of 19 but the rest are just 6 of 35. Working against Danks is being LH and getting no run support so far. Danks is facing a lineup that over time should feast on LHP...Pudge , Maggs , Sheff , Polanco and Monroe all have much better career splits facing LHP. If your talking bullpens I think DET has the clear edge especially if they turn to Ledezma or Grilli for long relief. Durbin 12-14 4.85 ERA at home career versus 5-17 8.28 road ERA....pick your poison here...

Under 4 -110 Tor team {6units}


Simply based on Cabrera's emergence and recent preference for pitching vs Tor who is hitting less with the injuries. Just look at Daniel's career vs Tor they dont like to see him. I am just not solid that O's can break 3 runs here looking for a pitchers duel. Think Balt is over priced here would have expected that Burnett was worth 15 to 20 cents more then Cabrera...think about Balt +1.5 RL

Under 9.5 -110 New York {5units}


Now that Pettitte is in form I am comfortable thinking he will pick up where he left off versus Boston sporting a career 3 ERA. Schilling now also dealing well has been excellent at Fenway vs NY as a Red Sox.

Braves -102 {5units} -1.5 RL +145 {1unit} -2.5 RL +215 {1unit}

Hudson has been excellent to date and in the past he is 6-2 in his starts vs NYM. The Mets are looking scary hot but they always say good hitting beats good pitching. As I expressed prior to his last start Pelfrey is playing catch up. He didnt look very sound in ST and Wash was unable to take advantage of him last start.Lets look at who NYM beat....a rookie in Fla and veteran in Philly making a return from injury. What was impressive was the beating they through Willis but DTrain hasnt really looked sharp so far....

Phillies +125 {2.5units}
Under 9.5 Reds -110 {3units}



GOOD LUCK

April 7th :


Early session : As always line shop


Yankees -200 {6units}

Not going to get all that in-depth here. The theme is BALT vs LHP. With the loss of Hernandez and Payton they have lost some weapons. Last season the O's were 5-21 on the ROAD vs LH SP. This year they lost to Johan Santana in the opener , who by the way is tougher on RHB cause of his change. You will see teams try to stack LHB against him. Tonite we saw Sean Henn throw 3 scoreless innings vs the O's allowing just 1 hit!!!


The SP is Igawa making his debut for NY. I think early on he was looking for his comfort zone and as spring went on he found it. In his NYM days Steve Traschel did a very sound job of pitching vs the Yanks . However they have the edges here with the LH SP , deeper pen , & Yanks playing much better then them during the DAY. With Rasner versus Bedard on Sunday this becomes a key game......The UNDER looks very attractive but I almost always wait till gameday for totals plays..

Thoughts on the rest of the Day schedule:

- Cubs @ Milw : Believe it or not neither SP has much success vs the opponent. Sheets looked awesome on Opening Day and that must be kept in mind. However MILW has won only 2 of his last 10 starts vs CHI. Zambrano has dropped 4 of 5 @ MILW....Lee owns Sheets but the rest of the TH should struggle and they are lacking from the LH side...In his opener Zambrano who could have the contract issues / stall hanging over his head couldnt get a LHB out...faced 9 allowed 4 hits (2hr's) and 3 BB's.....Ouch.. Looks like a coin toss here...

-Det @ KC : The Royals finally beat the Tigers at home (0-9 LYR). Maroth has been extremely solid in his recent outings @ Kauffman Stadium. Meche was solid on Opening Day and in his few outings vs DET recently. Discount Maroth' s last start in KC cause he was hurt and it was his last of the season before that 4 runs in 30 + innings there....so looking at the UNDER 9.5 ....KC didnt have any success vs LHP or in the day in 2006 if I recall correctly...

LAD @ SFG : being that Lowe stunk in the opener this game has lil value. Oh wait dont sleep on Russ Ortiz. It may not last long but right now he looks like a ML SP again....if LAD wins tonite then at these levels we could have some value in the SFG. However its customary to rest Bonds in day after Nite games so thats a caution...

Twins @ Sox: before the season started I though Silva might have a huge year ( for him). Now after watching the Spring I am certain this guy is mentally weak. he quit on his team last year and I thought that lead to an awakening. However when labeled as in a fight for a rotation spot he got shelled. The second he was announced as safe as SP he turned in his best performance. Which I called BTW! He was road kill last season. Still I prefer him to Javy who was smoked all ST. Worse is vazquez was lit up by Minny last year and has a piss poor track record vs them.....OVER 10..weather and ump..??

Mets @ Braves : The Mets are smoking hot and ATL has looked flat vs LHP. The get old fav Tom Glavine who seems to have worked out his ATL issues. Smoltz was solid in the opener and vs NYM last season...The NY bats have done alot of damage vs bullpens so far and timely hitting the rest....Carpenter was hurt , Wells and Looper IMO pitched very well vs them ...redman was decent till tiring and the pen got involved.....UNDER 8.5 most likelyWorking on the nite card...Good Luck

What a headache.....CappingtheGame is down and so was this Blogger shit!


What's the point with writeups now....

My plays were listed in the comment section here is a better listing.....

American League :

Orioles +1.5 RL +105 {2u} +2.10
Under 10-120 NYY {2.5u} PUSH
Tampa +110 {3.5 u} & -1.5 ARL +215 {1/2u} Win +3.35 net
Tigers -167 {3u} Loss-5.01



National League:

Philly -113 {3units} Win +3.00
Nats +105{2u} Loss -2.00
Under 9 +100 Nats {2u} Win +2.00
Pirates +105 {3u} & -1.5 ARL +160 {1u} Loss -4.00
Over 9.5 +105 Pitt {2u} Loss -2.00

adding @ 8PM...

Under 9 +100 Houston {2.5 u} Win +2.50
Houston +119 {1.5 u} -1.50

adding @ 10PM : (down -1.56 units heading into the late nite section)

LAA -110 {2.5u} Win +2.50
Over 9.5 +105 LAA{4u} Loss -4.00
SFG -104 {2.5units} Loss -2.60
Over 8.5 -105SFG {3units} Loss-3.15
Col +145 {1.5u} Win +2.18

Results -6.63 units

Didnt look at the rest of the NL card yet. Good Luck!

April 4th


SD @ SFG
Play : Giants -107 {5units} Lean UNDER

Looking at the changes to both teams SF seems to have gained some edges here. They have the former SD manager Bruce Bochy running the show as well as there leadoff hitter Dave Roberts. They acquired LHP Barry Zito thru free agency in the winter and SD lost two key bats vs LHP in Piazza and Barfield.

Some things that stand out for Jake Peavy are :
1: His performance @ AT&T Park

2006 18.2Inn 22H 12R 12ER 0Hr 6BB 9K 5.79ERA 1.50WHIP .293BAA in 3 starts.
Career 10st 6W 4L 63.0Inn 67H 30R 29ER 5HRr 22BB 41K 4.14ERA 1.41WHIP .271BAA

2: His day splits and road splits :

In Day starts he had 5.65 ERA 1.44 WHIP and .262 BAA in 12 starts(4-6). On the road 4.55 ERA , 1.35 WHIP , .257BAA. For his career he is 4.61 day ERA compared to 3.10 at nite as well as 4 road ERA compared to 3.07.

The Padres are a team that doesnt impress me. There lineup is a question mark IMO. As I mentioned earlier they lost two top hitters vs LHP in Piazza .359 8hrs and Barfield .331 7hrs. That means Bard and Gonzalez are there top threats vs LHP. Bard still has to show me he can do it for a full season. The rest of the lineup has inconsistencies and struggles. Marcus Giles hit just .229 vs LH but is .285 career mostly due to EXTREME inconsistencies. His brother a LHB hit .217 , Cameron the #3 hitter .252 last season , Greene 271. That leaves the young stud but unproven Kouzmanoff who was just 2/12 in limited ab's and Sledge who is LH and .247 career vs LHP. So while Zito at times has struggles with LHB and his Day splits are slightily worse then his nite splits I dont see Peavy as having the edge.

Factor in Bruce Bochy right out of the gates is trying to get revenge on his former team. I mean come on who lets there successful manager go straight to another divisional rival?? Thats a slap in the face. Peavy will have to face FOUR LHB at the top of the order with pesky du eof ROberts and Vizquel , followed by the rejuvanated Barry Bonds. Aurilia may not be the poster boy for offense but he smoked the ball in the 2nd H last season and it wasnt due to his home park . Molina has good day numbers and Winn is a better option then Sledge in the 8 spot.

The weak point for SFG is the pen. With some converted SP as setup guys as well as Chulk. I like the fact that despite Barry Zito signing for mega bucks he took the time to add 10 pounds to his lower body to increase velocity and worked on a new windup. He is showing he is trying to get better...Bonds is locked and healthy unlike last opening Day. Peavy has lost 3 of 4 @ SFG (and his PODS didnt hit 0,1 and 2 runs)while SFG won 11 of the last 13 meetings last season. You would think Zito's freshness is a plus since Peavy has faced SF so many times in recent years.

SD was just 6-11 on the road vs LHP.

April 2nd

Good start hitting NYM and the Under finishing +8.33 Units.

Early starts :
Yankees -165 {4units}
Under 10 -120 NYY {1unit}
Under 8 -115 Detriot {2 units}
Under 8 -105 Nationals {4units}
Phillies -110 {3units}
Under 8 -105 Milw {3units}
Brewers -110 {3units}

Reasons:-

With NYY it's real simple I am biased Homer fuck! In all seriousness I think Scott Kazmir is still working / feeling his way back from being shut down early last year with shoulder issues and being ordered to not throw over the winter. That puts him behind most SP at this point when he worked something like 16 innings this spring. I think its two-fold with him in that he wont be his sharpest and TB will baby him somewhat and maybe cap him at 6 innings . Though he doesnt usually get past the 6th on the road anyway. The other is Kazmir stastically is medicore on the road in young his career . NY hasn't hit him real well in the few meetings and with the abundance of LHB he could make life tough. With the bats TB just doesnt impress me at the moment they are talented but raw and young. Dukes will start in center and Baldelli at DH. Mix in Upton at 2b with Zobrist , Ikawura at 3B and Navarro you have an abudnace of players who could be thinking about there first Opening Day @ Yankee Stadium no less. Dont forget that TB won just 20 games away last year and finished 3-31 when they went with the youth. Take out the 2005 abberation and wins @ the Stdium dont come often for TB who is taking some steps back early and playing youth.The reason the line is low is cause Pavano is the anti-christ. His public perception is at an all time low thanks to not pitching since 05 and what has happened inbewteen. From what I have seen Pavano has thrown strikes and thrown well in Spring . TB's pen is unproven but has some okay arms where I like my Yanks pen . I think Pavano throws strikes and with a free swinging TB team that is a major plus. They had 1 batter with more then 18 walks on the road last season.....thats beyond absurd...they dont work counts....NY will be honoring Lidle as his wife throws out the 1st pitch. Remember that he and Giambi go way back so that plays some significance IMO..Looking at playing the under dont see alot of offense as 6-4 seems like worst case....NYY hit .286 in the day vs .256 for TB


In Detriot ,looking hard at the Under. To be honest an AL game with an 8 total is concerning but at least Comerica is huge. I dont really see either lineup as being exceptional. The Jays have struggled all spring with the bats and are facing Bonderman. Bonderman who has pitched well vs Tor in the past has looked sharp this Spring. One concerning point is neither excels in Day starts. As well as Bonderman not pitching that well at homelast season. Toronto runs out Halladay and thats really all that needs to be said. The Tigers only have Granderson , Casey and Guillen from the LH side. Its been awhile since Roy has faced DET so not much to go on really.


In Washington , we have two solid young SP in a pitchers park. Patterson appears healthy now and was real sharp last season versus Florida. The Marlins have alot of young bats who need to prove last year was no fluke. If Spring Training is any concern then Fla could be in trouble. They didnt hit well in the Spring and why would that suddenly change. Wash runs alot of LHB out there and the lineup doesnt have much substance. The Keys are Zimmerman who is a beast and Kearns who hasnt hit D-Train well yet in his career despite slugging LHP. Thats really it mostly LH and SWH that dont fare well against LHP. Waiting on umpires...Oh an the Marlins pen stunk last year but has made some changes and has tremendous upside especially with Julio closing. They had 4 guys Messenger , Gregg , Lidstrom and Owens who allowed an incredible 6 earned runs in 53 spring innings. Remember gone are Soriano , Vidro , and Johnson replaced by Snelling , Guzman and Dmitri Young.


In Philly . I think Myers has the better track record vs his opponent. Only Renteria has hit Myers and the rest of ATL has basically struggled vs him. He has looked solid in the spring and had solid day splits last year. Smoltz has lost 4 of 5 vs Philly since returning to the rotation. Smoltz was a differnt SP on the road with a 4.21 ERA , 1.34 WHIP and .281 BAA not to mention his lack of success vs LHB ( see Phillys lineup!!). Rollins has owned him recently and that sets the table. Dont see alot of runs and lean Under 9 .


In Milw , have a strong preference for the under with2 quality SP on the hill . Lowe has exceled in hsi 3 career starts vs Milw including both last season. Sheets has been extremeful tough @ Miller Park and strong in day starts. The wind is something I will look into further before placing though. Furcal is OUT so Pierre becomes the man concern. Both teams lack power.

The 4 PM starts :
Over 9.5 +105 Arizona {2units}
Over 9.5 -115 KC {2units}
KC +155 {2.5 units} ARL -1.5 +280{1/2unit}

Reasons:

Think in Colorado we have two young but fairly solid lineups. Webb had some issues in day starts and McClelland tends to play over behind the dish. On the other side Cook has really struggled vs LHP and versus the Diamondbacks.


While Meche has had success against Boston I cant ignore KC's ERA during the day last season (above 6 ). If he does what he has done in the past you would expect about 4 runs in 6 innings if you get a quality start from Gil. Schilling had a near 5 ERA on the road last year and has been hit hard @ Kauffman past few times. KC did suck in day games last season but hopefully that changes here....As I mentioned Meche has had some success against Boston in his Seattle days both home and away. The Royals have won 5 of 6 from Boston past 2 seasons and as I mentioned Schilling was much different away from Fenway. Schilling had a 4.38 ERA during the day last season with a 4.75 ERA away on the road with 1.30 WHIP. His low K total in spring training should be a plus for this game. Now with Schilling though his road numbers tend to be extremes...extremely good or extermely bad so it really is just an average not a consistent type number..From a fans perspective as a SP i have a ton of respect for Schilling and not crazy about fading him on Opening Day. In recent metings he was above -200 in KC so in some ways this may be cheap but hey so where my yanks and looks like they found a way to lose today. Not sure if papelbons' tender ankle changes his status as closer today..GL

Opening Day 2007 MLB

In looking at this matchup at first glance it could appear that Carpenter and STL are cheaper then expected. You have the World Champs at home with there stud on the mound and they have won 14 of his 19 home starts with a 1.75 ERA. After looking at this from every angle I uncovered some interesting trends. On the surface you have both teams aces dealing after excellent springs which they both proved they are ready for 6 or 7 innings at least on Sunday. The Cards were 55-33 at home including the postseason so why just -140 or why does 140 seem low to me ?

Truth is alot of thing stick out here that you had to look for. In 2006 the Cardinals struggled when opposing a LHP SP. Which I feel has alot to do with emergence of Chris Duncan. Duncan a young LH power hitter will have his struggles vs LHP. They finished the regular season 27-37 vs LHP(4-3 in postseason). They did go 14-16 at home vs LHP in the regular season which left them at 9-18 vs LHP away. Suprisingly they were only 54-63 at nite. Which means they were 40-20 in daylight. The Mets were a solid 49-36 away including postseason. They were a sound 77-48 vs RHP including postseason and 66-50 at nite. All minor factors that seem to indicate NY has the edge.

The Mets have the chance to get some revenge on STL for defeating them in the NLCS and thwarting there World Series aspirations. For St.Louis it will be all fun and games due to the fact its Opening nite and they are raising the World Series banner. It doesnt get better. So while I dont really deal in revenge I think distracted could be a fair word here for this situation.

The Mets were 12-5 in Glavine's away starts. Looking at the stats you wont be impressed by his 4.72 away ERA. You have to dig deeper though and realize its a hand full of starts skewing his numbers. You also most factor in that Glavine pitched pretty solid @ Busch during the 06 regular season. Him being LH certainly is a huge plus when looking at STL lineup and track record. He also was 8-2 last season with a mid 2's ERA at the end of May last season. He has pitched better at nite then during the day last 2 seasons.

While Carpenter is one of the best game the Mets ability to hit RHP cant go unnoticed especially if we recall that he didnt look that sharp in the NCLS which to be fair were road games. The Mets have two RH bats in Wright and LoDuca who hit well above 300 vs RHP. That is rare. Newcomer Moises Alou has good career numbers vs Carpenter and hit 285 vs RHP last season. There worst hitter vs RH is Green who hit only mid 260's in that situation as a Met last season. Beltran , Delgado , Reyes and Valentin all hit .280 + something. At nite Carpenter 's ERA was a full run higher at 3.40 compared to 2.40. The bottomline is the best chance to hit Carpenter is march a bunch of LH sticks out there which NY can( LHB hit about .265BAA past 2 seasons). He is death on RHB(about .205 BAA) the fact that NYM can boast three that succeed vs RH is a plus though. Again not major factors but sutile pluses for NYM.

The bottomline is STL hasnt hit much this Spring while adding Kennedy to replace Belliard which is a negative here IMO and NYM is just beginning to swing well. I would not expect much offense in this game as both SP seem to be in regular season form already. I know Glavine has pitched 6 shutout innings and Carpenter 7 shutout innings telling us they can at least go that deep at peak performance. The pens are questions marks but for possibly 2 innings with a day off secheduled on Monday I am not that concerned. I see a low scoring game here that NY wins by a run. The Cards failed to break 3 runs in 14 of 30 at home vs LHP( or 4 runs in 18 of 30).

Strong leans ( and probable plays) :

New York Mets +135 {3.5units} ARL -1.5 +200 {.75 units}
Under 8 +105{3units}