Sunday NFL
Kansas City Cheifs +7.5 -120 (3x)
We see that Pittsburgh has lost three straight and really is desperate here. A scary situation to be fading the home squad. I do have reasons though. First Big Ben is just not right and you can tell by his TD to INT ratio..clue he has zero TD passes and 7 Ints. Huard has done a good job protecting the ball with no Ints and 5 Td passes.
Injuries are starting to become an issue for Pitt. Already missing Colon on the OL it appears Kendal Simmons (RG) will sit out. The secondary already without Colcough will miss starting corner Deshea Townshend. The LB crew will be w/o JoeyPorter and his backup Harrison. Certainly not good news when you face an offense that is about running the ball and throwing to its TE.
Pittsburghhas done a good job shutting down RB's but opposing QB's have been able to throw the ball agaisnt them. Culpepper and Leftwich both managed 260 but no Td passes( 3ints). Then Palmer had only 190 yards but 4 TDS and last week Rivers came out his shell for 240 yards. With how Huard has played poised you would expect he should play fairly well. The OL was a concern last week but it looks like Turley will play as he has praticed. LJ appears okay after the facemask play and is part of the passing game as well. One sure spot is Dante Hall might miss here and we know the type of weapon is he.
Had to think that even the smell of desperation wont keep KC from continuing to play solid defense. Leinart had a big play to Boldin and some late yardage that came in prevent defense. Edge had 24 c 71yds. Earlier @ Denver they allowed 29c 113 yds to the Bell boyz. They really played well @ Denver and have every game since the flat opener which the D did show up.
My guess is at this time the line should be Pitt -4.5 not any higher . Arnold Harrison will start in Porter's place his first and his backup wil be Rian Wallace who never played LB in an NFL game. Also Pitt signed Chad Brown who wil be getting a crash course and be in the mix. You just wonder what type of shape he is in.
San Fran 49ers +10.5 -110 (3x)
I 'll agree that SD is very good. However are they better then Philly won was -6 @ SF? I dont think so. There was an interesting point in that PHI game as well. Eagles jumped out on SF early with some big plays just aboutto make it 24-10 the 49ers fumbled on the 1 and saw Mike Patterson RUMBLE the distance the other way...making there 24-10 game 31-3...which SF then scored 2 fairly quick TDs to make it 31-17 ...would it have worked out the same if Philly hadnt forced the fumble and SF scored? Meaning would it have been 24 up at one point?? We cant answer that. It shows you SF can move the ball versus a good defense and has heart. SD tends to be conservative and the fact they were on national TV beating Pitt defeinetly juiced this line up IMO. There arent many key injuries to speak of. Well SF will be w/o 2 OL jennings and Allen but there replacements have looked fine. Vernon Davis is out but Eric Johnson is capable. One that is the key though is Walt Harris. SF has been happy with its corner play but not its safety play and talked with Troy Vincent. The loss of Harris is tough to weigh IF he misses . he has played well and its interesting SF nickel back who would start is non other then ex Charger Sammy Davis!! He could be looing to show his old mates something as well as be familiar with some of the routes. If Harris is inactive its possible SF could activate former NFL Europe star BJ Tucker.
I just see SD being to big a chalk here and having to dominante from start to finish to cover which is tough on the road. SD is known for there RUN defense which makes this more interesting since SF needs Gore to play well. SF has managed at least 20 points in every game outside of the shutout @ KC and spanked fellow bottomfeeder Oakland last week. I just maintain that SF has changed its culture and makes for a tough game @ Home...see how well they played aginst TB ,NYG and Indy last year.. They have had trouble slowing the RUn which is obviously SDs game plan with Turner and LT.
Miami Dolphins +3 -120 (8x) ML +119 (2x)
Many of you dont know me very well but I am value guy who likes playing bad lines. This was a bad line IMO. While Miami has fallen way short o expecttaions the NYJ had exceeded them before Jax. However there is no reason why this game is NOT a PKEM. We just saw Miami switch QBs and catch 9 @ NE. If not for some poor turnovers and missed opps on offense it could have been an upset. NY hosted NE catching 6 and was dead for most of the game getting embarrassed. That was until Jerricho cotchery amde his highlight TD catch o run. Not sure what to call it....you know when he got tackled , rolled over on the defender but never got touched down. That sparked the Jets and the crowd from a 24-0 defecit. I hate fading a team coming back from a shutout on the road. However I really like how this Miami defense has played. New Yorks defense is very inconsistent and Ronnie brown should have no trouble running on them. Now NY will struggle to run leaving this on Chad Pennington once again and his star WR is less then 100%.
How good is the Miami D? Its solid and 17 of the 20 NE points came off turnovers andthe other FG followed a Miami missed FG. The Pats TD drives lasted all of 5 plays and 34 yards that how good of field position they were spotted. The bad part is versus a NE defense much tougher then NY but Miami had 2 missed FG's and 2 fumbles and 2 picks! Whats key here is Ronnie Nrown needs a breakout game and NY is basically allowing every team to just run all overthem...check the numbers...NY avs 3.2 yards per carry and Miami allows 2.9 per carry. Which again makes this Penningtons game...Hate the 3rd staright road spot for Miami but the defense is just to goood IMO...
Thinking Arizona and Denver in the other games.
The 1 PM's
Skins -10 -115 (4x)
1st H -6.5 -123 (2x)
We have a few injuries here. First lets remember Tenny had all of 60 yards passing and whatever offense came last week came on the ground(200ydz +). Skins held Jags to 15c and 33 rushing yards. Tenny has been without David Givens and Bennett is questionable in addition to Kinney being done for the year. White has been battling the flu(brown is already out)and there Kicker Bironas has a sore groin. On the OL Pillar is already out and Olsen is questionable.
Bottomline is I dont see much if any offense from Tenny. This line is at least 3 points lower if last week doesnt happen the way it did Skins will score in the twenties...Huge fact is Tenny also playing 4th road game in 5 weeks after a heartbreaking loss for a young team...
skins should get Springs back but lost there starting DT's but have some depth at that spot.
Seahawks buy -2.5 -110 (now6x from 4x)
I am impressed with STL but not buying into that much. They needed QB fumbles inside the last minute to preserve wins @ Arizona and @ GB. They played a shootout vs DET at home and lost @ SF! Oh yeah they beat Denver which gave them 6 short fields and they still maanged only 6 FGs. They have 2 banged up corners which means Hill has to start and they lost Witherspoon @ LB to injury last week. This offense looked good only vs DET IMO.
Throwing stats and trends out the window here as I just think STL is overrated now. Line is where it should be IMO. going to look for improvement in Seattle and those 3 WR sets should cause havoc with a team shorthanded@ CB. Witherspoon loss is probably irreplacable.
Saints +3.5 -110 (4x)
Stats thrown out the window here. Like NO in the spot after Phillys GOY. The Saints can be run on BUT Westbrook still appears less then 100% and Stallworth is OUT. I thought Philly was really lucky with some poor safety play but NO lost a safety this week (Stoutmire will start). philly secondary still banged up some. Thought this game should have beem closer to a PK(like -1.5 PHI). Philly has been successful throwing the ball and Saints only allowing about a 150 per game. The atmosphere always seems to be insane now.
The running duo of Deuce and Bush are making it happen. SF an Hosuton arent exactly tests
Bucs +5.5 -110 (4x) & Cincy -4-108 (1x) got nervous
Cincy is banged up on there OL and @ WR. There LB crew is depleted to say the least and Dexter Jackson is out again. TB will pound cadillac and the other backs and let Gradkowski manage the game. Palmer has struggled with mobility taking sacks and turning the ball over with fumbles and INTS.
Not sure after Rudi struggled @ Pitt they will establish a running game here.
Whats going on this morning??
Probably most comfortable with seattle and Washington but being cautious could bump to 5x though.
The rest:
Lions ML +108 (2x)
I cant recommend going nutz backing a banged up winless team facing a team lead by a former coach. However how is this team a dog here? The injuries are a concern but the OL seems okay . Buffalo does a great job competing but they still lack talent in some areas. DET all but dominanted Minnesota in the dome as 6.5 pt dogs were as Buff hosted Minny as -1 and won 17-12. We all recall how DET lost that game last week...2 defensive scores in the final minutes.
You cant say Jauron has much of an edge with Kitna now QB' in this team. Lions have been good against the run and shredded vs the pass. Well thats good news since What you talking bout Willis is there RB and there key offensive weapon. Sorry the Bills lost to the J-E-T-S in Buffalo. They did a nice job as big dogs sneaking up up on conference foes NE and Miami. This isnt conference play , they are big dogs and they have to find someone other then Lee Evans who Dre Bly will blanket to make plays. I actually dont have a problem with Losman at QB...its just Price , Parrish , and Josh Reed have not shown me much. They get Takeo Spikes back but as much as a difference maker he is ...his health level is unknown.
Game IMO should be DET -2.5...Also 2 struggling offenses against average defenses seems to make me think 40.5 is high for this game...possible UNDER play here.
Dallas -12 -110 (2x)
I dont see value in Houston. First there offense hasnt done much. We see they put up 24 USELESS 4th Q points at Indy. Otherwise tehy havent topped 17 and I dont think they do so today. The Dallas D has alot more swagger at home and I think it plays like an ELITE unit at home. You will not run on Dallas and that means they can tee off on Carr and the OL. Think about WASH w/o Portis and realize that Houstons defense wont play as well as WASH...thinking 28-10 here. Also this line looks high but it isnt. Hous was +6 at home vs Philly which turns into -13 on the road. Even though Dallas lost @ Philly I think Dallas is about 2 pts stronger..making -15 fair IMO. After a bad loss DALLAS will respond remember how they dismantled Tenny...thats what Dallas can do....beat up on bad teams..
Remember HOUSTON D allowed 515 yards to Indy.
Giants +3.5 -120 (now3x from 2x)
NY has a tough schedule which can only make them better. Who has ATL played? Carolina w/o Smith , TB in the midst of its struggles , ARI @ home and might have lost if Warner didnt literally give the game away. Oh and they got smoked in NO. NY has not allowed backs to run on them and has had poor pass defense. Well that goes against ATL strengths. IF ATL cant run how will they score?? Even with 32 against Zona mostly gift points this team looks like 17 points is a ceiling.
If you can explain to me how ATL will score please do so...
Still looking at Carolina @ Balt and the U33.5 there.Might entertain the UNDER...wanted 43 though.
More-
Totals
Under 41 -107 Bills (1x)
Under 47 -105 NO (1x)
Under 33.5 -104 Balt (2x)
Team Totals
Under 15 -120 Tenny (1x)
Over 24 -103 Seattle (1x)
Under 26 -111 SD (1x)
TEASER
Skins -11.5 , Broncos -14 and Dallas -13 (3x) 10pt teaser
Saturday, October 14, 2006
NCAAF
Noon Starts:
- Decided that with Kafka not returning it was best to downgrade Northwestern to 1x from 3x.
- Army +4.5 -110 (1x) & ML +172(1x)
- Iowa -17.5 -110 (3x) will hedge at least 2x
- NCST -2.5 -115(3x)
- Syracuse +25.5 -108 (1x) & Over 48.5 -110 (1x)
- Under 50.5 -102 Wisconsin (1x) waiting though
- Oklahoma -19.5 -105 (1x)
- Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
- West Michigan +3.5 -115 (3x)
- Oklahoma State +3.5 -120 (5x)
- Tulsa -2-110(1x)
- Texas A&M +2-101 (5x) ML +109(1x)
- Virginia +3.5 -115(3x)
- Colorado +7.5 -120 (1x)
- Michigan State +14.5 -105 (1x)
- Under 52 -105 Oregon (2x)
- E. Mich +11 -105 (2x)
- Wash St +9 -110 (5x)
Lean - Hawaii -4
- Oregon State +10 (1x)
Night
-Lean to Baylor +26.5 , SoMiss -2 , Ill -6 , Ov 40.5 Miami, Over 50 LSU
-Kansas St +10.5 -115 (3x)
Auburn +2 -105 (12x)
Penn State +6 -110 (3x) and Under 41 -110 (3x)
Thats it so far......Questions or comments.......GL
- Really like Northwestern finally returning home getting a team in Purdue coming off games @ ND and Iowa. Purdue will be w/o WR Lymon and I dont like there defense enough to cover a TD chalk in a conference road game. You might say what has the Wildcats done? Thats true and Kafka is out again which scares me. I think there defense has been better then adequate but it games @ Wisky and Penn State its just a matter if time before the defense tires and gets walked on..which seemed to happen in both games recently. The Boliermakers gave up alot of points to some less then flattering teams at home so maybe even Northwestren can show a pulse on offense...basic situation play...
- It just seems that UConn was given much more respect this season they desereved. Being pegged as home favs vs Navy and Wake they lost both SU and have now switched QB's. They played @ Indiana and did not svore on offense. They have owned Army which is a concern but it still looks like enoughg peopel havent caught on to how bad the Huskies have turned out. Army always seems to bark as a dog and put up 62 against VMI last week...Army putting up 62 versus anyone is northworthy...so I'll ride Ross boys as a dog and hope for the best. Uconn as a team has been awful for consecutive weeks following consecutive awful performances on offense vs Indiana and Wake. If your not sure how a team can score its tough to justify laying points with them IMO.
- I hopped on Iowa early after last weeks thrashing off Purdue thinking this should have been 3 TDS. To my suprise everyone agrees. Well its getting awful close to 20 and I might just middle it or two units of it tmrw when it breaks 20. Iowa still has to show consistency and Wisky just a few back thrashed Indiana but only laid 10 in that game..plus the Hoosiers had a huge road win and could be sharper at home...so a play I am on but not recomending as I will hedge it.
- NCST just really love this spot and play at a FG. The Wolfpack managed to hangaround vs BC and make some plays late...it was a rather lucky win. However turn the page and they trailed all nite vs FSU but out played them in the 4th quarter which is different then a team just shooting themselves in the foot constantly. Huge edge in 3 straight at home. Evans look sto be the real deal making some impressive throws vs FSU. I do think Wake will be flat after theer 4thq collapse vs Clemson...24 points in the 4th! There offense has been lackluster all year and expect the same...could be a 5 unit play possibly...
- Just took a shot on the Orangeman hanging around. This line seems awful high for a team off flat road performances. Maryland was only +17 and i dont see much differrence bewteen the two. So thinking Cuse can make WV work for the points and score 14 ++ here..total is now 50.5 though
- Just dont like the Iowa State eoffense and see it putting up 14 points here. OU will look to bounce back versus an inferior opponent and expect a 21-24 pt win..
- The Minnesota offense struggled IMO in home games vs Michigan and Penn State would expect the same thinking 31-17...
- All year I havent believed in navy but I look game by game and see a much tougher slate then RU's. Who I am also convinced is overrated and faded @ USF. the RU offense is all about the ground game and Navy will slow them there forcing Teel to beat them....Navy destroyed RU two years back in this meeting and I have feeling they cruise...
- WMU is getting a good spot here with Northern Illini playing 3 rd straight away. Think WMU defense is solid and Northern is swiss cheese...
- Really shocked that Ok St was a FG dog here at one point expected worse case a PK game. Kansas seems good enough to keep it close but not good enough to win.. Think OSU was penalized for losing to KSU...its tough to win on the road and sometimes the dif bewteen being -2 and getting +2...makes or breaks you...interesting to see if Meier plays what type of rythym he can produce .
just some comments for the early stuff.....and A&M should read + 2-101.....
Stuff regarding my AUBURN play . I said all along it was a bad line....some people agree...
Question: What were the deciding factors that made Auburn the favorite over Florida this week? Also, how much more value will Arkansas carry now that they`ve knocked off a top SEC team?
Answer: I guess that if Auburn would have beaten Arkansas last week, I wouldn’t even have received this question. Anyway, Auburn has a high rated home-field rating and remember that the Tigers closed a 13-point favorite over the Razorbacks. This year at home, Auburn did hold LSU to three points and beat up on Washington State and by the way, Florida has gone to the favorite. As for Arkansas, they played up to their preseason hype versus Auburn. Remember that the Razorbacks are led by a freshman at quarterback who is still going through growing pains. Mustain had a dismal performance against the Tide but Arkansas was still able to prevail. Against Auburn, Arkansas relied on their defense and running game as Mustain just threw the ball 10 times (completed 7 for 87 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions). Let’s put Arkansas in the “momentum” category for now.
Covers Expert Steve Merril has some interesting thoughts. "It didn`t last long as Florida is now a 1-point road favorite," Merril says. "The results last week have obviously affected this line as Auburn would have been at least a 4-point favorite before last week. Arkansas will definitely not carry `more value` now. The exact opposite is true as the upset win will cause their power ratings to rise and there will actually be less value with Arkansas.
Just thought some who doubt my value logic would like to read this
The schedule for today says-
The clean version:
Auburn +2 -105 (12x)
There are more then a few comemnts in my thread about how this is the perfect situational play. Auburn off a bad home loss while Florida 'upset" LSU and the public at home last week. Making a game that IMO should have been Auburn -3 a +2 home dog. Auburn will shutdown the running game off FLA and make Leak and Tebow beat them. I actually dont believe Tebow will get many chances today...
Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
You look at what Navy has accomplished nd compare that to RU and you have to be impressed. RU was lucky to win @ USF while Navy dismantled UConn and Stanford on the road. RU is getting way tomuch credit for beating Illinois , Ohio U and UNC early whne linesmakers undervalued them.. Navy will run on them and RU will struggle to run the ball meaning Teel and his 14 INT to 4 TD rati will have to make a play...and remember Tucker is OUT so the WRs are thin and he has to rely more on his TE.
5x Plays
Texas A&M +2 -102(also ML +109 1x)
Oklahoma State +3.5 -120
Wash State +9 -110
3xPlays
Kansas State +10.5 -110
Penn State +6 -110
Under 41 -110 Penn State
Virginia +3.5 -115
NCState -2.5 -115
Baylor will be want better then 27
2x Plays
West Michigan +3.5 -115
Eastern mich +11 -108
Under 52 -105 Oregon
1x Plays
Oregon State -110
Mich State +14.5 -105
Colorado +7.5 -120 (shot in the dark)
Tulsa -2-110
Oklahoma -19.5 -108
Under 51 -108 Wisky
Cuse +25.5 -105
Over 48.5 -110 Cuse
Army +4.5 -110 & ML +174
Northwestern +7.5 -110
Middled(3x each side)
Iowa -17.5 and Indiana +20.5-110(each way)
Team Totals (all 1x unless noted)
Over 11.5 -108 Cuse
Under 20.5 -111 Minnesota
Over 17.5-105 Army
under 17.5 -107 Wake Forest
Over 19.5 -108 East Mich +100
Over 30.5 -111 SJST (2x)
Over 10.5 -108 Baylor
Over 38.5 +100 LSU
Over 33.5 -108 Miami
Under 23.5 -120 Michigan
Good Luck the leans are still the same
Baseball
Oakland ML +166 (4x) & ARL +270 (1x)
Personally and some will disagree this line is inflated. One could make an arguement that the books needed a big number to get Oakland dough here. I just feel that its been OAK money all series and the books have to be happy with DET being up 3-0 here. I dont think they needed to trick the betting public. I do think they realized they could jack up the DET ML and still get an even flow. Thats my opinion
Regardless of what the series is , I had liked Haren in this spot. Its true haren does struggle more with RHB . However his key and Oaklands seems to be this:
Haren has a 3.09 Day ERA , 0.97 WHIP and .206 BAA
Oakland is 43-22 day and 116-68 L3 years in Day games
Oak is 72-52 vs RHP and hit Verlander but not the 2 LHP.
Bonderman has trouble with LHB's as they stroke 284 off hime with a1.55 WHIP. This year day starts were rough and you can see the ugliness this has been a career long problem for Jeremy 12-21 with an ERA above 5 .Bradley and Cahvez are a combined 10-25 off Jeremy both other LH's Kotsay and Swisher not so much luck 2- 21. Payton is 3-4 career in clearly limted abs. I have mentioned already how well most A's hit in the day games.......Against Haren not suprisingly the key bats are Polanco and Pudge who are 9 of 22. Basically dismissing situation I really dont understand why this would be -140 or -150 let alone -175. I wish this line could keep rising but it has since backed off could have had OAK @ =169 at one time now just +162...
Over 7.5 +103 (5x)Both teams hit RHP well or better I should say better then LHP ..... A number that is very low IMO....for an AL playoff game...look at what the Game 2 score was RH vs RH..Not sure but I think the weather was slightly better ....Cant see an 8.5 then a 7.5...
Night game :
The Night game....
Cardinals -124 (5x)
Under 9.5 -113 (3x)
I guess my feeling is we get Suppan cheap here. Couple starting points for me were STL laying -110 when Suppan opposed Glavine early May . Going back to Sept 2005 Suppan faced Traschel laying -160. Now clearly I dont think 160 is fair but 140 is IMO. While StL has taken a step back generally Suppan struggled in the old Busch which is not so this year. The Mets have improved from last season but Traschel hasnt. So really to me -140 is fair in this matchup...
Suppan allowed 6 hits and 4 unis in 6 + innings early this year. Suppan didnt turn it around till the break so 1st half starts cant be weighed heavily IMO. Since the break his ERA is 2.39 with a 6-2 record in 15 starts and solid 1.28 WHIP. Now in his career he has pitched well against NY allowing only10 runs (9er) in 35 2/3 innings vs NY and a 3-1 record across 6 starts. This year at home he is 7-2 witha 3.18 ERA , 1.28WHIp , .246 BAA. His nite splits and numbesr vs LHP are less then flattering but remember its been a tale of 2 season...overal numbers dont do him justice. Just like I said his home ERA is 3.18 its much better then that in the 2nd Half and he has gone deep into games 7++.
Against NY's lineup he has done well indivually:
Delgado 6 /29 10 bbs
Beltran 2/11
Green 3/24
Wright 1/4
Loduca 6/16
Reyes 2/6
Endy 5 /14
Valentin 12 /48
So it appears Suppan can keep NY in check. Factor in StL 36-16 L52 at Home vs RHP...
Traschel pitches better on the road then at home. He probably pitched his best game in a 1-0 loss @ STL vs Mulder in May. Actually he struggles more with RHB this year .306 and 1.72 WHIP...
Indivually he has done a good job keeping the Cards in check. Only Pujols at 5/14 with NO Hrs is having success.
Belliard 5/22
Eck 2/10
Edmonds 2/12
Encarnacion 4/24 but would start Preston Wilson if I was LaRussa(8/20 3 Hrs)
Yadier 1/7
Duncan 0/2
Spezio 1/7 or Rolen 10/41
Suppan 2/6 HR
So Traschel does well keeping the cards off balance as well. Thats a good reason to expect fairly solid starts from both. So the 9.5 total is overreaction to yesterday as I think 9 was correct and has precedent.
GL
Noon Starts:
- Decided that with Kafka not returning it was best to downgrade Northwestern to 1x from 3x.
- Army +4.5 -110 (1x) & ML +172(1x)
- Iowa -17.5 -110 (3x) will hedge at least 2x
- NCST -2.5 -115(3x)
- Syracuse +25.5 -108 (1x) & Over 48.5 -110 (1x)
- Under 50.5 -102 Wisconsin (1x) waiting though
- Oklahoma -19.5 -105 (1x)
- Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
- West Michigan +3.5 -115 (3x)
- Oklahoma State +3.5 -120 (5x)
- Tulsa -2-110(1x)
- Texas A&M +2-101 (5x) ML +109(1x)
- Virginia +3.5 -115(3x)
- Colorado +7.5 -120 (1x)
- Michigan State +14.5 -105 (1x)
- Under 52 -105 Oregon (2x)
- E. Mich +11 -105 (2x)
- Wash St +9 -110 (5x)
Lean - Hawaii -4
- Oregon State +10 (1x)
Night
-Lean to Baylor +26.5 , SoMiss -2 , Ill -6 , Ov 40.5 Miami, Over 50 LSU
-Kansas St +10.5 -115 (3x)
Auburn +2 -105 (12x)
Penn State +6 -110 (3x) and Under 41 -110 (3x)
Thats it so far......Questions or comments.......GL
- Really like Northwestern finally returning home getting a team in Purdue coming off games @ ND and Iowa. Purdue will be w/o WR Lymon and I dont like there defense enough to cover a TD chalk in a conference road game. You might say what has the Wildcats done? Thats true and Kafka is out again which scares me. I think there defense has been better then adequate but it games @ Wisky and Penn State its just a matter if time before the defense tires and gets walked on..which seemed to happen in both games recently. The Boliermakers gave up alot of points to some less then flattering teams at home so maybe even Northwestren can show a pulse on offense...basic situation play...
- It just seems that UConn was given much more respect this season they desereved. Being pegged as home favs vs Navy and Wake they lost both SU and have now switched QB's. They played @ Indiana and did not svore on offense. They have owned Army which is a concern but it still looks like enoughg peopel havent caught on to how bad the Huskies have turned out. Army always seems to bark as a dog and put up 62 against VMI last week...Army putting up 62 versus anyone is northworthy...so I'll ride Ross boys as a dog and hope for the best. Uconn as a team has been awful for consecutive weeks following consecutive awful performances on offense vs Indiana and Wake. If your not sure how a team can score its tough to justify laying points with them IMO.
- I hopped on Iowa early after last weeks thrashing off Purdue thinking this should have been 3 TDS. To my suprise everyone agrees. Well its getting awful close to 20 and I might just middle it or two units of it tmrw when it breaks 20. Iowa still has to show consistency and Wisky just a few back thrashed Indiana but only laid 10 in that game..plus the Hoosiers had a huge road win and could be sharper at home...so a play I am on but not recomending as I will hedge it.
- NCST just really love this spot and play at a FG. The Wolfpack managed to hangaround vs BC and make some plays late...it was a rather lucky win. However turn the page and they trailed all nite vs FSU but out played them in the 4th quarter which is different then a team just shooting themselves in the foot constantly. Huge edge in 3 straight at home. Evans look sto be the real deal making some impressive throws vs FSU. I do think Wake will be flat after theer 4thq collapse vs Clemson...24 points in the 4th! There offense has been lackluster all year and expect the same...could be a 5 unit play possibly...
- Just took a shot on the Orangeman hanging around. This line seems awful high for a team off flat road performances. Maryland was only +17 and i dont see much differrence bewteen the two. So thinking Cuse can make WV work for the points and score 14 ++ here..total is now 50.5 though
- Just dont like the Iowa State eoffense and see it putting up 14 points here. OU will look to bounce back versus an inferior opponent and expect a 21-24 pt win..
- The Minnesota offense struggled IMO in home games vs Michigan and Penn State would expect the same thinking 31-17...
- All year I havent believed in navy but I look game by game and see a much tougher slate then RU's. Who I am also convinced is overrated and faded @ USF. the RU offense is all about the ground game and Navy will slow them there forcing Teel to beat them....Navy destroyed RU two years back in this meeting and I have feeling they cruise...
- WMU is getting a good spot here with Northern Illini playing 3 rd straight away. Think WMU defense is solid and Northern is swiss cheese...
- Really shocked that Ok St was a FG dog here at one point expected worse case a PK game. Kansas seems good enough to keep it close but not good enough to win.. Think OSU was penalized for losing to KSU...its tough to win on the road and sometimes the dif bewteen being -2 and getting +2...makes or breaks you...interesting to see if Meier plays what type of rythym he can produce .
just some comments for the early stuff.....and A&M should read + 2-101.....
Stuff regarding my AUBURN play . I said all along it was a bad line....some people agree...
Question: What were the deciding factors that made Auburn the favorite over Florida this week? Also, how much more value will Arkansas carry now that they`ve knocked off a top SEC team?
Answer: I guess that if Auburn would have beaten Arkansas last week, I wouldn’t even have received this question. Anyway, Auburn has a high rated home-field rating and remember that the Tigers closed a 13-point favorite over the Razorbacks. This year at home, Auburn did hold LSU to three points and beat up on Washington State and by the way, Florida has gone to the favorite. As for Arkansas, they played up to their preseason hype versus Auburn. Remember that the Razorbacks are led by a freshman at quarterback who is still going through growing pains. Mustain had a dismal performance against the Tide but Arkansas was still able to prevail. Against Auburn, Arkansas relied on their defense and running game as Mustain just threw the ball 10 times (completed 7 for 87 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions). Let’s put Arkansas in the “momentum” category for now.
Covers Expert Steve Merril has some interesting thoughts. "It didn`t last long as Florida is now a 1-point road favorite," Merril says. "The results last week have obviously affected this line as Auburn would have been at least a 4-point favorite before last week. Arkansas will definitely not carry `more value` now. The exact opposite is true as the upset win will cause their power ratings to rise and there will actually be less value with Arkansas.
Just thought some who doubt my value logic would like to read this
The schedule for today says-
The clean version:
Auburn +2 -105 (12x)
There are more then a few comemnts in my thread about how this is the perfect situational play. Auburn off a bad home loss while Florida 'upset" LSU and the public at home last week. Making a game that IMO should have been Auburn -3 a +2 home dog. Auburn will shutdown the running game off FLA and make Leak and Tebow beat them. I actually dont believe Tebow will get many chances today...
Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
You look at what Navy has accomplished nd compare that to RU and you have to be impressed. RU was lucky to win @ USF while Navy dismantled UConn and Stanford on the road. RU is getting way tomuch credit for beating Illinois , Ohio U and UNC early whne linesmakers undervalued them.. Navy will run on them and RU will struggle to run the ball meaning Teel and his 14 INT to 4 TD rati will have to make a play...and remember Tucker is OUT so the WRs are thin and he has to rely more on his TE.
5x Plays
Texas A&M +2 -102(also ML +109 1x)
Oklahoma State +3.5 -120
Wash State +9 -110
3xPlays
Kansas State +10.5 -110
Penn State +6 -110
Under 41 -110 Penn State
Virginia +3.5 -115
NCState -2.5 -115
Baylor will be want better then 27
2x Plays
West Michigan +3.5 -115
Eastern mich +11 -108
Under 52 -105 Oregon
1x Plays
Oregon State -110
Mich State +14.5 -105
Colorado +7.5 -120 (shot in the dark)
Tulsa -2-110
Oklahoma -19.5 -108
Under 51 -108 Wisky
Cuse +25.5 -105
Over 48.5 -110 Cuse
Army +4.5 -110 & ML +174
Northwestern +7.5 -110
Middled(3x each side)
Iowa -17.5 and Indiana +20.5-110(each way)
Team Totals (all 1x unless noted)
Over 11.5 -108 Cuse
Under 20.5 -111 Minnesota
Over 17.5-105 Army
under 17.5 -107 Wake Forest
Over 19.5 -108 East Mich +100
Over 30.5 -111 SJST (2x)
Over 10.5 -108 Baylor
Over 38.5 +100 LSU
Over 33.5 -108 Miami
Under 23.5 -120 Michigan
Good Luck the leans are still the same
Baseball
Oakland ML +166 (4x) & ARL +270 (1x)
Personally and some will disagree this line is inflated. One could make an arguement that the books needed a big number to get Oakland dough here. I just feel that its been OAK money all series and the books have to be happy with DET being up 3-0 here. I dont think they needed to trick the betting public. I do think they realized they could jack up the DET ML and still get an even flow. Thats my opinion
Regardless of what the series is , I had liked Haren in this spot. Its true haren does struggle more with RHB . However his key and Oaklands seems to be this:
Haren has a 3.09 Day ERA , 0.97 WHIP and .206 BAA
Oakland is 43-22 day and 116-68 L3 years in Day games
Oak is 72-52 vs RHP and hit Verlander but not the 2 LHP.
Bonderman has trouble with LHB's as they stroke 284 off hime with a1.55 WHIP. This year day starts were rough and you can see the ugliness this has been a career long problem for Jeremy 12-21 with an ERA above 5 .Bradley and Cahvez are a combined 10-25 off Jeremy both other LH's Kotsay and Swisher not so much luck 2- 21. Payton is 3-4 career in clearly limted abs. I have mentioned already how well most A's hit in the day games.......Against Haren not suprisingly the key bats are Polanco and Pudge who are 9 of 22. Basically dismissing situation I really dont understand why this would be -140 or -150 let alone -175. I wish this line could keep rising but it has since backed off could have had OAK @ =169 at one time now just +162...
Over 7.5 +103 (5x)Both teams hit RHP well or better I should say better then LHP ..... A number that is very low IMO....for an AL playoff game...look at what the Game 2 score was RH vs RH..Not sure but I think the weather was slightly better ....Cant see an 8.5 then a 7.5...
Night game :
The Night game....
Cardinals -124 (5x)
Under 9.5 -113 (3x)
I guess my feeling is we get Suppan cheap here. Couple starting points for me were STL laying -110 when Suppan opposed Glavine early May . Going back to Sept 2005 Suppan faced Traschel laying -160. Now clearly I dont think 160 is fair but 140 is IMO. While StL has taken a step back generally Suppan struggled in the old Busch which is not so this year. The Mets have improved from last season but Traschel hasnt. So really to me -140 is fair in this matchup...
Suppan allowed 6 hits and 4 unis in 6 + innings early this year. Suppan didnt turn it around till the break so 1st half starts cant be weighed heavily IMO. Since the break his ERA is 2.39 with a 6-2 record in 15 starts and solid 1.28 WHIP. Now in his career he has pitched well against NY allowing only10 runs (9er) in 35 2/3 innings vs NY and a 3-1 record across 6 starts. This year at home he is 7-2 witha 3.18 ERA , 1.28WHIp , .246 BAA. His nite splits and numbesr vs LHP are less then flattering but remember its been a tale of 2 season...overal numbers dont do him justice. Just like I said his home ERA is 3.18 its much better then that in the 2nd Half and he has gone deep into games 7++.
Against NY's lineup he has done well indivually:
Delgado 6 /29 10 bbs
Beltran 2/11
Green 3/24
Wright 1/4
Loduca 6/16
Reyes 2/6
Endy 5 /14
Valentin 12 /48
So it appears Suppan can keep NY in check. Factor in StL 36-16 L52 at Home vs RHP...
Traschel pitches better on the road then at home. He probably pitched his best game in a 1-0 loss @ STL vs Mulder in May. Actually he struggles more with RHB this year .306 and 1.72 WHIP...
Indivually he has done a good job keeping the Cards in check. Only Pujols at 5/14 with NO Hrs is having success.
Belliard 5/22
Eck 2/10
Edmonds 2/12
Encarnacion 4/24 but would start Preston Wilson if I was LaRussa(8/20 3 Hrs)
Yadier 1/7
Duncan 0/2
Spezio 1/7 or Rolen 10/41
Suppan 2/6 HR
So Traschel does well keeping the cards off balance as well. Thats a good reason to expect fairly solid starts from both. So the 9.5 total is overreaction to yesterday as I think 9 was correct and has precedent.
GL
Friday, October 13, 2006
Friday Thoughts
Okay well I took a shot with STL last nite but for the second consecutve nite I was kicking myself for my reluctance to bang the total...So think the past 2 days in baseball has -4 units but Tuesday alone was nearly +15...if I am going to lose I like the way it has been...hit the biggies lose the small ones..
I for one thought the Oakland was desperate to win Game2 at home. After all who wants to go down 2-0 and have to face DET in Motown? Not any reasonable person......Is it me or do people just plain not get it. How can you question Kenny Rogers?? I mean they keep saying he pitched the game of his life...ummm didnt they look at his home starts this year? Didnt they realize the Yanks struggle on the road vs LHP?? The way I see it the GAMBLER did what he did all season. He had one minor poor stretch and then striaghten himself out thru adjustments. He has faced Oakland 6 or 7 times past 2 season which sound results IMO. He beat them twice this year and is the same price he was in OAKLAND vs Saarloos...clearly Harden is better but Harden is one huge QUESTION MARK right now. If he was looking so good wouldnt OAK have started hime before they had no choice but to?
Initially I was scared by OAK day record but 4:35 in Motown with the freezing cold isnt exactly DAY BASEBALL IMO...so I am overlooking that.I was suprised that against HArden the very RH lineup of DET was 15 for 38 with 3bbs and 8 Ks...very solid IMO...Last 2 years the only batter to have real success against the Gambler was Payton but he was 0-6 this year after a 7-11 last season. Kendall is a solid 6 for 20 and the Big Hurt who punished kenny back in the day hasnt faced him in 2005 and was 1/4 with a HR this year. So 15-80 for OAK past 2 years vs kenny plus Paytons curious 7/17....I just dont see an edge for Oakland other then Zumaya being hurt.
Rogers had only 3 starts at home where he allowed 4 runs or worse...in 2 of them he went 7 innings and one of those all 4 were unearned....the other was his last start vs LH killing Toronto....otherwise he is 7 innings and 3 runs or less at DETRIOT.
Det 13-4 and 12-4 under with Kenny at home and 8-4 Under in day starts. The A's have faced Johan and Robertson and have produced little on offense in the playoffs. Rich Harden was on a short leash and you dont what the cold weather will do to him...despite being from up North......
Who would u rather be the team playing at home , up 2-0 , with there leader Or being down 2-0 , with an injured SP(less then 100%) and a warm weather team playing in frosty conditions??
Tigers -126 (5x)
Under 8.5 -114 (3x)
Which I am nervous about cause kenny usually had totals of 9 or 9.5...but the weather plays a role......
Under 4 -111 Oakland(1x)
Game II in NY
Okay looking up and down at this game......
Stats arent very useless here as Carpenter did not face NY this season and Maine only once which Pujols put a show on. Tonite STL made switches to Duncan who always plays vs RHP and Spezio who has great away splits.
One thing about 2006 is that Carpenter was not the same shut down SP he normally is. Most ofg his road starts were very average or saw him tire in the 7th and 8th innings allowing some big runs...
How did STL fare after being shutout this season??In happened 8 times they followed the shutouts with :
9,4,6,1,5,6,7,5
Carpenter pitched 3 times the 1-0 win , the 5-1 win and the 6-5 loss which is the last occurence.Now both teams looked crappy at the plate but they also had 4 and 5 days since theer last games...now back to back nites allows a different comfort level.
Carpenter lifetime hasnt had much indivual concern:
Beltran is 4-19 with 2 hrs
Delgado 2-3
Loduca 2/6
Reyes 1/3
The ugly:
Chavez 0/11
Green 0 /8
Valentin 1/15
Wright 0/3 3Ks!
The question is what do we expect from John maine well he did get somewhat lucky his 1st start allwoing just 1 run cause he was hit fairly hard. I think its keys to remember that its likely Darren oliver relieves him if its before the 6th inning.Carpenter may have not been himself on the road this year and he may have thrown a ton of pitches this season but he is ACE in a day where that word has lost its true meaning. So I always expect a big gutsy outing from him come OCTOBER.
Tonite looking at the matchups I think STL has the better lineup with 4 key bats for them ..Pujols , Edmonds , Spezio and Duncan the L3 all LH. For NY obviously reyes, Delgado and Beltran...the later 2 studs only hit 225 at home...Wright could be neutralized facing Carpenter..the trio of Green , Chavez and valentin is 1 for 34 against Carpenter...Know STL as road chalk? Well if John Maine is -140 against Weaver in NY the question from a value standpoint is does the difference bewteen Jeff Weaver and carpenter equal 60 cents or better and I say yes it does probably about 75 cents actually......Maine is an unknown and everyone is down on STL...but me.....
Cardinals -120 (3x)
Over 7.5 +101 (4x)
Over 4 +101 team STL (2x)
Just saw DET won 3-0 so won all plays for +9 units...so basically rolling that over ...
NCAAF-
I just keep looking at Pitt's schedule and amazing how poor the offenses that they played are. You get Virginia at home and a trip to Cincy. You host Toledo with a QB injury and you play the Citadel before traveling to Cuse who fumbled 3 times! They played one decent team and were smoked at home by Mich State before they had started falling to pieces...
UCF can be thrown on...and Palko will but UCF can also move the ball and Kevin Smith is there key as well as not making silly turnovers....Scary but this is Pitts 2nd toughest game IMO.......
Over 47 -109 (2x)
UCF over 18.5 -107 (3x)
UCF +10.5 -107 (3x)
I think the fact UCF finally broke there losing streak is key here as they were so tough at home last season. Plus they get extended rest while Pitt gets the short week with RU on deck.....
Expect both in the 20's and maybe even 30's could be alot of big plays.....
Good Luck!
GL
Okay well I took a shot with STL last nite but for the second consecutve nite I was kicking myself for my reluctance to bang the total...So think the past 2 days in baseball has -4 units but Tuesday alone was nearly +15...if I am going to lose I like the way it has been...hit the biggies lose the small ones..
I for one thought the Oakland was desperate to win Game2 at home. After all who wants to go down 2-0 and have to face DET in Motown? Not any reasonable person......Is it me or do people just plain not get it. How can you question Kenny Rogers?? I mean they keep saying he pitched the game of his life...ummm didnt they look at his home starts this year? Didnt they realize the Yanks struggle on the road vs LHP?? The way I see it the GAMBLER did what he did all season. He had one minor poor stretch and then striaghten himself out thru adjustments. He has faced Oakland 6 or 7 times past 2 season which sound results IMO. He beat them twice this year and is the same price he was in OAKLAND vs Saarloos...clearly Harden is better but Harden is one huge QUESTION MARK right now. If he was looking so good wouldnt OAK have started hime before they had no choice but to?
Initially I was scared by OAK day record but 4:35 in Motown with the freezing cold isnt exactly DAY BASEBALL IMO...so I am overlooking that.I was suprised that against HArden the very RH lineup of DET was 15 for 38 with 3bbs and 8 Ks...very solid IMO...Last 2 years the only batter to have real success against the Gambler was Payton but he was 0-6 this year after a 7-11 last season. Kendall is a solid 6 for 20 and the Big Hurt who punished kenny back in the day hasnt faced him in 2005 and was 1/4 with a HR this year. So 15-80 for OAK past 2 years vs kenny plus Paytons curious 7/17....I just dont see an edge for Oakland other then Zumaya being hurt.
Rogers had only 3 starts at home where he allowed 4 runs or worse...in 2 of them he went 7 innings and one of those all 4 were unearned....the other was his last start vs LH killing Toronto....otherwise he is 7 innings and 3 runs or less at DETRIOT.
Det 13-4 and 12-4 under with Kenny at home and 8-4 Under in day starts. The A's have faced Johan and Robertson and have produced little on offense in the playoffs. Rich Harden was on a short leash and you dont what the cold weather will do to him...despite being from up North......
Who would u rather be the team playing at home , up 2-0 , with there leader Or being down 2-0 , with an injured SP(less then 100%) and a warm weather team playing in frosty conditions??
Tigers -126 (5x)
Under 8.5 -114 (3x)
Which I am nervous about cause kenny usually had totals of 9 or 9.5...but the weather plays a role......
Under 4 -111 Oakland(1x)
Game II in NY
Okay looking up and down at this game......
Stats arent very useless here as Carpenter did not face NY this season and Maine only once which Pujols put a show on. Tonite STL made switches to Duncan who always plays vs RHP and Spezio who has great away splits.
One thing about 2006 is that Carpenter was not the same shut down SP he normally is. Most ofg his road starts were very average or saw him tire in the 7th and 8th innings allowing some big runs...
How did STL fare after being shutout this season??In happened 8 times they followed the shutouts with :
9,4,6,1,5,6,7,5
Carpenter pitched 3 times the 1-0 win , the 5-1 win and the 6-5 loss which is the last occurence.Now both teams looked crappy at the plate but they also had 4 and 5 days since theer last games...now back to back nites allows a different comfort level.
Carpenter lifetime hasnt had much indivual concern:
Beltran is 4-19 with 2 hrs
Delgado 2-3
Loduca 2/6
Reyes 1/3
The ugly:
Chavez 0/11
Green 0 /8
Valentin 1/15
Wright 0/3 3Ks!
The question is what do we expect from John maine well he did get somewhat lucky his 1st start allwoing just 1 run cause he was hit fairly hard. I think its keys to remember that its likely Darren oliver relieves him if its before the 6th inning.Carpenter may have not been himself on the road this year and he may have thrown a ton of pitches this season but he is ACE in a day where that word has lost its true meaning. So I always expect a big gutsy outing from him come OCTOBER.
Tonite looking at the matchups I think STL has the better lineup with 4 key bats for them ..Pujols , Edmonds , Spezio and Duncan the L3 all LH. For NY obviously reyes, Delgado and Beltran...the later 2 studs only hit 225 at home...Wright could be neutralized facing Carpenter..the trio of Green , Chavez and valentin is 1 for 34 against Carpenter...Know STL as road chalk? Well if John Maine is -140 against Weaver in NY the question from a value standpoint is does the difference bewteen Jeff Weaver and carpenter equal 60 cents or better and I say yes it does probably about 75 cents actually......Maine is an unknown and everyone is down on STL...but me.....
Cardinals -120 (3x)
Over 7.5 +101 (4x)
Over 4 +101 team STL (2x)
Just saw DET won 3-0 so won all plays for +9 units...so basically rolling that over ...
NCAAF-
I just keep looking at Pitt's schedule and amazing how poor the offenses that they played are. You get Virginia at home and a trip to Cincy. You host Toledo with a QB injury and you play the Citadel before traveling to Cuse who fumbled 3 times! They played one decent team and were smoked at home by Mich State before they had started falling to pieces...
UCF can be thrown on...and Palko will but UCF can also move the ball and Kevin Smith is there key as well as not making silly turnovers....Scary but this is Pitts 2nd toughest game IMO.......
Over 47 -109 (2x)
UCF over 18.5 -107 (3x)
UCF +10.5 -107 (3x)
I think the fact UCF finally broke there losing streak is key here as they were so tough at home last season. Plus they get extended rest while Pitt gets the short week with RU on deck.....
Expect both in the 20's and maybe even 30's could be alot of big plays.....
Good Luck!
GL
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Thursday Thoughts
In regards to the NCLS just carry over the Cardinals play from yesterday. Check yesterday's comments for my thoughts...STL +163 (3x)....no decision on if I will play the total yet. A much nicer day here inNY for baseball...
Tonite VaTech ML -138 (1x) possibly a 3x play
Under 43 -115 BC (1x)
Now I think a key here is BC's kicker being suspended. We all know about Tech's ability to block kicks and a SOPH walk on is getting the call. Now I understand Ryan Ohilger has missed 4 Fgs and 3 XP's...but if this walk on was any good wouldnt there have been some grumblings about benching Ohilger?
I know VaTech has done there usual beat up on the meek and fall flat on the face against there 1st real opponent. Lets remember two things Ellis was OUT on defense and GT is always a LIVE DOG. What has BC done? They watched as Clemson and BYU beat themselves...games which BC won in OT.
Look at the offense vs Clemson...only 320 yards on 75 plays...they got some big plays in the kick return game. Look at the offense at NCST....15 points.....at home vs Maine 22...even BYU which is an avg defense just 23 pts in regulation. They did get 490 yards on 75 plays...but BYU pass defense is poor IMO. We know VaTech can and will play defense especially after a poor performance in which they had time to prepare...I just think BC's wins are smoke and mirrors...4-1 is close to being 2-3...
Clemson -24.5 1st H -109(1x) maybe 3x or Clem -44.
One note is this is not a true Clemson home game...its about 130 miles away in Charlotte.
Temple has looked better past few weeks IMO due to the step down in class. Instead of playing a strong offense like Minnesota or top tier team like Louisville which they were losing 61-0 to....they saw Vandy , WMU and Kent St. All Solid teams with very average offenses...yet only did the home game vs Kent St look remotely competitive...Temple had a 10-7 lead but then looked up and was down 28-10 in the 4th Q. Clemson is off a big 4th Q comeback vs Wake Forest and will find the Temple D to its liking. Just look at the Clemson running agme and how poor the Temple run defense is. Stuckey is obviously out but the WRs still should have a huge edge over the Temple DB's.
What flies under the radar is Clemson defense. Temple will struggle IMO to break 7 points and the Tiger D should give the offense alot of short fields to work with...Reasonable speaking is 28-3 @ Half that much to ask for? Lville and Minny had them 42-0 and 45 - @ Half...Louisville was a home game as well...Vandy had them 24-0 but they must have fell asleep and allowed a 78 yd TD run last play on the 1st H.
Colorado State +6 -110 (3x) downgraded to 1x / Under 47 -125 (1x)
Have to admit I am now concerned about this play. CSU will probably without 2 senior starters OL(RG) Day and SS Stratton....two very key positions. I had made this play original thinking this game should have been -4.5 and both teams had alot at stake here. I decided AF was getting to much respect for the Tenny showing...what have they done since? Hoped that a returning CSU defense familiar with the AF offense could help keep it in check with someone winning late 23-20.....now I am rethinking as I try to figure out the injuries. Could AF control or dictate the pace better out with a hole in the OL and secondary.. a thought.
Saturday-
Auburn now +2 -101 and +115 ML( will be 12x)
Northwestern +7.5 -115 (3x)
Iowa -17.5 -110 (3x)
Oklahoma State +3.5 -120 (5x)
Michigan State +14.5 -105 (3x)
Texas A&M +2 -101 (5x)
Wash State +9 -110 (5x)
Kansas State +10.5 -115 (3x)
Now I did miss some moves...Navy now -3 was -1.5 . SJST now -16 was -14 . Baylor was +28.5 now +26.5. Still looking at and watching others........writeups will come...Every game I have played was simply based on IMO the lines being off and the last 3 were the same logic. Definetly still on Navy even if I go ML...contemplating Baylor as I lost some key numbers..wavering on SJST..Good Luck....
In regards to the NCLS just carry over the Cardinals play from yesterday. Check yesterday's comments for my thoughts...STL +163 (3x)....no decision on if I will play the total yet. A much nicer day here inNY for baseball...
Tonite VaTech ML -138 (1x) possibly a 3x play
Under 43 -115 BC (1x)
Now I think a key here is BC's kicker being suspended. We all know about Tech's ability to block kicks and a SOPH walk on is getting the call. Now I understand Ryan Ohilger has missed 4 Fgs and 3 XP's...but if this walk on was any good wouldnt there have been some grumblings about benching Ohilger?
I know VaTech has done there usual beat up on the meek and fall flat on the face against there 1st real opponent. Lets remember two things Ellis was OUT on defense and GT is always a LIVE DOG. What has BC done? They watched as Clemson and BYU beat themselves...games which BC won in OT.
Look at the offense vs Clemson...only 320 yards on 75 plays...they got some big plays in the kick return game. Look at the offense at NCST....15 points.....at home vs Maine 22...even BYU which is an avg defense just 23 pts in regulation. They did get 490 yards on 75 plays...but BYU pass defense is poor IMO. We know VaTech can and will play defense especially after a poor performance in which they had time to prepare...I just think BC's wins are smoke and mirrors...4-1 is close to being 2-3...
Clemson -24.5 1st H -109(1x) maybe 3x or Clem -44.
One note is this is not a true Clemson home game...its about 130 miles away in Charlotte.
Temple has looked better past few weeks IMO due to the step down in class. Instead of playing a strong offense like Minnesota or top tier team like Louisville which they were losing 61-0 to....they saw Vandy , WMU and Kent St. All Solid teams with very average offenses...yet only did the home game vs Kent St look remotely competitive...Temple had a 10-7 lead but then looked up and was down 28-10 in the 4th Q. Clemson is off a big 4th Q comeback vs Wake Forest and will find the Temple D to its liking. Just look at the Clemson running agme and how poor the Temple run defense is. Stuckey is obviously out but the WRs still should have a huge edge over the Temple DB's.
What flies under the radar is Clemson defense. Temple will struggle IMO to break 7 points and the Tiger D should give the offense alot of short fields to work with...Reasonable speaking is 28-3 @ Half that much to ask for? Lville and Minny had them 42-0 and 45 - @ Half...Louisville was a home game as well...Vandy had them 24-0 but they must have fell asleep and allowed a 78 yd TD run last play on the 1st H.
Colorado State +6 -110 (3x) downgraded to 1x / Under 47 -125 (1x)
Have to admit I am now concerned about this play. CSU will probably without 2 senior starters OL(RG) Day and SS Stratton....two very key positions. I had made this play original thinking this game should have been -4.5 and both teams had alot at stake here. I decided AF was getting to much respect for the Tenny showing...what have they done since? Hoped that a returning CSU defense familiar with the AF offense could help keep it in check with someone winning late 23-20.....now I am rethinking as I try to figure out the injuries. Could AF control or dictate the pace better out with a hole in the OL and secondary.. a thought.
Saturday-
Auburn now +2 -101 and +115 ML( will be 12x)
Northwestern +7.5 -115 (3x)
Iowa -17.5 -110 (3x)
Oklahoma State +3.5 -120 (5x)
Michigan State +14.5 -105 (3x)
Texas A&M +2 -101 (5x)
Wash State +9 -110 (5x)
Kansas State +10.5 -115 (3x)
Now I did miss some moves...Navy now -3 was -1.5 . SJST now -16 was -14 . Baylor was +28.5 now +26.5. Still looking at and watching others........writeups will come...Every game I have played was simply based on IMO the lines being off and the last 3 were the same logic. Definetly still on Navy even if I go ML...contemplating Baylor as I lost some key numbers..wavering on SJST..Good Luck....
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Wednesday Thoughts
First note is the Yankees suffered a tragic loss today when 34yr old pitcher Corey Lidle was flying his private plane and crashed into some NYC apts. He has been confirmed dead. Even more unfortunate is the Lidle's do have a 6 year old son.
Today Thoughts-
STL@ NYM
The weather is awful here in NY and I am not sure it will get better. I really didnt spend much time on this game for fear it could be canceled. Keep that in mind.
StL really slumped in the 2nd H vs LHP including losing all 9 road starts until they defeated Wells in SD. Weaver has been better away but you know he faces a stiff test in the LH heavy NYM lineup. Both SP 's made only 1 start vs the opposition this year. Glavine in StL and Weaver a few months back here at Shea.
For whatever erason the RH heavy StL lineup is slumping vs LHP and a guy like Edmonds usually tough on LH is at 157. StL does have some guys who hit well at Shea in Preston Wilson , Pujols and Rolen. As well as the heart of the order Rolen , Pujols and Encarnacion hit Glavine well. Tom is 13-3 in 16 starts with a sub 3 ERA. That alone makes it easy to like NY. However I am not convinced this line should be higher then -150. It seems with such even series fading any fav over 150 makes sense just on principle.
Delgado owns Weaver at 19 for 38 but Carlos had trouble at Shea this season hitting just 225. The erst of the NY lineup is 33 /128 with 6 hrs off Weaver..nothing overly impresssive.
For Glavine 3-4-5 in STL presents a problem as they are 41-109 with just 2 hrs. Throw in Belliard who is 5/12 and off a good series plus factor in Preston Wilson . Who is only 9 /44 against Glavine but 292 against LHP and a 313 career hitter with 13hrs in 46 games @ Shea. That sort of makes me feel 2-6 in STL will be a tough out tonite. That leaves Edmonds who no matter what his numbers say and 157 is bad , but he is always dangerous.
You cant say NY has a clear advantage in the pen until they get to the closer spot cause STL guys did an excellent job in the SD series when called upon. Though in theory NYs pen is better.
Bad weather hurts NY more cause losing Glavine cause of RAIN is more devasting then losing Weaver.
Small play :
cards +162 (3x)
Note on the total: IMO the weather favors the UNDER here. I havent made any decison on playing a total but looking at passing. I initially liked the under but then after looking at some numbers immediately thought the over looked attracted. After looking atthe whole picture I do lean Under...My biggest concen is how well Weaver would pitch and if he avoids Delgado he could give a 6 inning 3 run performance which I expect similiar from Glavine...
Oakland A's -103 (5x)
You look at Loaiza 's L5 at home and you walk away impressed. Since 8/13 he appears to be a different SP. Esteban was solid at home and even tossed in a few strong road starts though at times he still struggled away.
His last 5 at home 37 2/3Inn 26 H 7runs 6 Er 6BB 22 K 1 Hrs. Then you look and he always has pitched well vs DET in his WSox career except his last outing. Which was a sloppy game from the get go which featured 6 runs in the first along with 2 errors. If the lineup stays the same a few guys hit him well on Det Guillen 11/16 , Granderson 4/6( caution 6 abs!) , Pudge 8/21. Up the middle Nefi and Polanco are both 3-10. The other 4 bats are 7/ 53 Maggs , Inge , Monroe and Thames.
With Verlander just who is he? I mean when he takes the hill is the guy who was 13-4 with a 2.69 ERA entering August or the guy who struggled his last 10 starts of the reg season. Which pushed his ERA a full point higher. His velocity was fine against NY but he wasnt particulary impressive. How long can he go? Both teams dipped into the pen early as Robertson lasted 5 and Zito 3 2/3 innings.
His 11 starts including the postseason he last 61 1/3 innings. He allowed 83 Hits and had just 2 starts where he allowed less hits then innings(only 1 which was equal).He allowed 40 runs and 39 earned 9hrs 28bb -41K's. tahst a 5.71 ERA in those 11 starts he had a span where spun those good starts(of 4 starts) where he allowed 2 runs in 21 innings. So think how bad the other 8 really are..37 earned in 40 1/3 innings.
Another factor is his 3 starts vs OAK all real solid were pre August....so how do we weight them? He will face 5 LHB's and he allowed a 279BAA and 1.46 WHIP vs them. As well as having a 3.98 era at nite compared to below 3 in the day...a 5pm starts counts as what though?
Generally most of Loaiza's totals at home in the 2nd H were 9.5 so this seems low. They met in April it was 9 but a 4-3 outcome...so 9 would definetly make sense....8.5 seems somewhat low considering Verlander appears to be less then 100%. Most of his away totals were at lest 9 as well.As I mentioned earlier a TON of baserunners left on yesterday. I think back to back games are beneficial to the hitters as well as depleted pens . Remember Loaiza started tiring in the 5th last time althought his recent track record suggests 7 innings at home. Verlander only 4 of 11 did he complete 6 innings. My feeling is the line is where I thought it would be and basically where it should be....
Over 8.5 -120 Oak / Det (3x)
Was going to play OAK over 4 team but I missed the boat some as its now -134 was -116 earlier...still might though.
It will always be up before gametime....just understand it doesnt take 2 seconds to right this. GL
First note is the Yankees suffered a tragic loss today when 34yr old pitcher Corey Lidle was flying his private plane and crashed into some NYC apts. He has been confirmed dead. Even more unfortunate is the Lidle's do have a 6 year old son.
Today Thoughts-
STL@ NYM
The weather is awful here in NY and I am not sure it will get better. I really didnt spend much time on this game for fear it could be canceled. Keep that in mind.
StL really slumped in the 2nd H vs LHP including losing all 9 road starts until they defeated Wells in SD. Weaver has been better away but you know he faces a stiff test in the LH heavy NYM lineup. Both SP 's made only 1 start vs the opposition this year. Glavine in StL and Weaver a few months back here at Shea.
For whatever erason the RH heavy StL lineup is slumping vs LHP and a guy like Edmonds usually tough on LH is at 157. StL does have some guys who hit well at Shea in Preston Wilson , Pujols and Rolen. As well as the heart of the order Rolen , Pujols and Encarnacion hit Glavine well. Tom is 13-3 in 16 starts with a sub 3 ERA. That alone makes it easy to like NY. However I am not convinced this line should be higher then -150. It seems with such even series fading any fav over 150 makes sense just on principle.
Delgado owns Weaver at 19 for 38 but Carlos had trouble at Shea this season hitting just 225. The erst of the NY lineup is 33 /128 with 6 hrs off Weaver..nothing overly impresssive.
For Glavine 3-4-5 in STL presents a problem as they are 41-109 with just 2 hrs. Throw in Belliard who is 5/12 and off a good series plus factor in Preston Wilson . Who is only 9 /44 against Glavine but 292 against LHP and a 313 career hitter with 13hrs in 46 games @ Shea. That sort of makes me feel 2-6 in STL will be a tough out tonite. That leaves Edmonds who no matter what his numbers say and 157 is bad , but he is always dangerous.
You cant say NY has a clear advantage in the pen until they get to the closer spot cause STL guys did an excellent job in the SD series when called upon. Though in theory NYs pen is better.
Bad weather hurts NY more cause losing Glavine cause of RAIN is more devasting then losing Weaver.
Small play :
cards +162 (3x)
Note on the total: IMO the weather favors the UNDER here. I havent made any decison on playing a total but looking at passing. I initially liked the under but then after looking at some numbers immediately thought the over looked attracted. After looking atthe whole picture I do lean Under...My biggest concen is how well Weaver would pitch and if he avoids Delgado he could give a 6 inning 3 run performance which I expect similiar from Glavine...
Oakland A's -103 (5x)
You look at Loaiza 's L5 at home and you walk away impressed. Since 8/13 he appears to be a different SP. Esteban was solid at home and even tossed in a few strong road starts though at times he still struggled away.
His last 5 at home 37 2/3Inn 26 H 7runs 6 Er 6BB 22 K 1 Hrs. Then you look and he always has pitched well vs DET in his WSox career except his last outing. Which was a sloppy game from the get go which featured 6 runs in the first along with 2 errors. If the lineup stays the same a few guys hit him well on Det Guillen 11/16 , Granderson 4/6( caution 6 abs!) , Pudge 8/21. Up the middle Nefi and Polanco are both 3-10. The other 4 bats are 7/ 53 Maggs , Inge , Monroe and Thames.
With Verlander just who is he? I mean when he takes the hill is the guy who was 13-4 with a 2.69 ERA entering August or the guy who struggled his last 10 starts of the reg season. Which pushed his ERA a full point higher. His velocity was fine against NY but he wasnt particulary impressive. How long can he go? Both teams dipped into the pen early as Robertson lasted 5 and Zito 3 2/3 innings.
His 11 starts including the postseason he last 61 1/3 innings. He allowed 83 Hits and had just 2 starts where he allowed less hits then innings(only 1 which was equal).He allowed 40 runs and 39 earned 9hrs 28bb -41K's. tahst a 5.71 ERA in those 11 starts he had a span where spun those good starts(of 4 starts) where he allowed 2 runs in 21 innings. So think how bad the other 8 really are..37 earned in 40 1/3 innings.
Another factor is his 3 starts vs OAK all real solid were pre August....so how do we weight them? He will face 5 LHB's and he allowed a 279BAA and 1.46 WHIP vs them. As well as having a 3.98 era at nite compared to below 3 in the day...a 5pm starts counts as what though?
Generally most of Loaiza's totals at home in the 2nd H were 9.5 so this seems low. They met in April it was 9 but a 4-3 outcome...so 9 would definetly make sense....8.5 seems somewhat low considering Verlander appears to be less then 100%. Most of his away totals were at lest 9 as well.As I mentioned earlier a TON of baserunners left on yesterday. I think back to back games are beneficial to the hitters as well as depleted pens . Remember Loaiza started tiring in the 5th last time althought his recent track record suggests 7 innings at home. Verlander only 4 of 11 did he complete 6 innings. My feeling is the line is where I thought it would be and basically where it should be....
Over 8.5 -120 Oak / Det (3x)
Was going to play OAK over 4 team but I missed the boat some as its now -134 was -116 earlier...still might though.
It will always be up before gametime....just understand it doesnt take 2 seconds to right this. GL
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
WEEK 6 NFL
I delivered the Broncos on Monday Nite and even Carolina on Sunday . I meant to post this earlier and I got tied up. It still has value and some books still have the big number
Dolphins +3 -120(8x) ML +120 (2x)
I am no fan of the Dolphins or Harrington. I am a fan of the Miami defense and you can see how NYJ fails every week to run the ball and how even a depleted top tier defense can embarass them. For Miami what helps them here is Harrington gets a full week of reps and has the comfort of knowing he is starting till Dante is healthy. That is a huge plus.
Who is NY to be favored over anyone ? The Pats and Colts came in as 6 and 8 pt chalk at the Meadowlands. Miami was just +9 @ NE and played probably better then NY did when they hosted the Pats.I'll talk more about this but I had this game @ PK...+3 was great value...even if you have lay -130 or so play it IMO.....
more to comeon this game and the week 6 schedule
I delivered the Broncos on Monday Nite and even Carolina on Sunday . I meant to post this earlier and I got tied up. It still has value and some books still have the big number
Dolphins +3 -120(8x) ML +120 (2x)
I am no fan of the Dolphins or Harrington. I am a fan of the Miami defense and you can see how NYJ fails every week to run the ball and how even a depleted top tier defense can embarass them. For Miami what helps them here is Harrington gets a full week of reps and has the comfort of knowing he is starting till Dante is healthy. That is a huge plus.
Who is NY to be favored over anyone ? The Pats and Colts came in as 6 and 8 pt chalk at the Meadowlands. Miami was just +9 @ NE and played probably better then NY did when they hosted the Pats.I'll talk more about this but I had this game @ PK...+3 was great value...even if you have lay -130 or so play it IMO.....
more to comeon this game and the week 6 schedule
ALCS
Well as I mentioned for some reason I was having trouble looking at this game but I have spent a couple hours looking at it from every angle .
Some minor notes -
Tigers are 24-9 L33 opening game of a series
A's are 69 -26 @ Home vs LHP
The SP matchup-Nate Roberston (LHP)
Nate made his debut in the postseason pitching at the Stadium last week. One thing you have to keep in mind is the Yankees hit LHP much better at the Stadium so dont over emphasize the results. There is a clear difference bewteen NYY vs LHP home and away. Also Robertson has pitched fairly well in the past vs them.Before his last 2 outings (NYY and Tor) Robertson has been pitching solid baseball. He had 5 consecutive solid starts generally going 6 +innings and allowing 3 runs or less..it was 5straight and actually 9 of 10 so basically since August 1st. The prior 5 starts he had lasted 35 innings and allowed 7runs (6earned). He was extremely tough on LHB and Oak has a couple holding them a .178 BAA and has a 3.42 ERA at nite this season.
Tonites A's lineup is just 10 of 65 against him career with Swisher being 0-11 , Kendall 1-14 and Kotsay 0-7. Hurt is 3-10.Robertson was at his best away this season with a 3.90 road ERA. He was 6-6 but DET just 6-10 when he started but 10 of 16 went UNDER. Also of his last 10 away starts he saw 8 UNDERS. The pen pitched well in his starts as he allowed 4.06 runs whe started but remember his ERA was 3.90..also he got 4.25 run support away.
Barry Zito (LHP)
Barry doesnt have good numbers at home this year. Upon closer review its been a strange season for Barry at home. He got shelled vs NYY in the opener losing 15 -2. After that he bounced back with a decent 7 inning and 5 run performance. His next starts athome before the break were remarkable. Oak went just 4 -3 in those starst but he went 5-2 UNDER.In those 7 starts he went at least 7 innings everytime and the final three at least 8 innings. He went 52 2/3 Innings allwoing 11 runs and 9 earned* thast a sub 2ERA) . He allowed only 40 hits and 3 hrs with a 11-34 BB to K ratio. After the Break it was a diffeernt story until his final 2 home outings. in 8 second half starts the OVER was 7-0-1 in Zito's starts. His first 6 post Break starts NEVR saw him complete 7 inninsg and only versus that depleted Boston lineup did he allow less then 4 runs (only 1 vs Boston). His final 2 home games were better. He went 7 innings allowing 4 runs and 7 2/3 allowing 3 runs. Those first 6 post break starts he allowe 29 runs in 33 1/3 innings..plus the other stats arent very good( u get the point though). Factor in the final 2 where he allowed 7 in 14 2/3 innings he allowed 36 runs at home in 48 innings over 8 starts......not very good.
What I take from this is Zito was very much STREAK orientated at home this year...7 good followed by 6 poor and now 2 good. So despite the poor second Half splits I expect a better Zito like he has pitched in hsi past few outings..along the lines of 7 innings and 3 or 4runs.
Now looking at TRENDS really OAK has nothing decisive in terms of the total.
However all of DET's trends point towards an UNDER.
Total of 8 or 8.5 away 17-6 Under (27-15 under season)
Dog og less then 150 27-10 UNDER
Raod 46 -34 UNDER and Tuesday games 15-8 UNDER
Nite 57-42 UNDER
LHP 32-18 UNDER (34-20 SU)
oakland has 4 hitters with good splits vs LHP:
Kendall .331 but just 264 @ home (1-14 against Nate)payton 296 6hrs vs LHP and .304 @ HomeBradley 293 6hrs only 243 7hrs at home. Swisher 291 8 hrs only 235 at home and 0-11 against Nate. kotsay 265 vs LHP but 0-7 against Nate and 283 Home. Hurt .245 9hr vs LHP and 242 23 hr at home(good hr per ab ratio though)Scutaro .218 off LHP but 280 @ homeChavez .268 at home but 197 against LHP and was 1-30 in the postseason before the hR in Game #3
In the 2nd H OAK was 8-1 at home vs LHP and 5-3 OVER. However they didnt face many good teams starting LHP. In the 1st H they were 5-6 vs LH SP but dropped teh first 4 meaning 13-3 L16 at home vs LHP. Still the offense didnt hit much vs LHP..11 1st H games 8 were 4 runs or less the other 3 (5,7,9). The 2nd H they scored at least 5 runs in all 9 starts. Like I said it wasnt quality teams or SP.
DET also doesnt strong numbers vs LHP. One note is DET 49hrs off LHP and OAK 50Hrs. Zito pitched well in his lone performance vs DET in April. Outside of Polance and Pudge the DET lineup is 18-108 career off Zito!! Polanco and Pudge are 15-37 off Zito though and actually casey is 3-5 but I counted that in the 18-108...culprits there are Inge , Maggs, Monroe @ 8-68 plus Guillens 6-30...14 /98 is like 144 I think!The Tigers had only 3 bats above 290 vs LHP Pudge 340 , Maggs 294 and guillen 291 . Monroe is 271 but only 2 hrs. Granderson , Inge , Thames and Caseyrange from 216 to 256 with Polanco the other regular @ 272.
Now Barry gets 4.71 runs at home and allows 5 runs per in his start(well OAK does). Again remember his ERA is 4.71 so 5.00 overall is generally good.In 12 starts with more then 5 days restthis year Zito's ERA was 2.94 significantly better then his normal ERA. In 14 starts on more then 5 days rest Robertsons ERA was 3.86 ever so slightily higher. What I didnt like was teh difference in BAA..50 pts worse on extended rest.
Now the clock is ticking and i didnt get time to talk about this but as mentioned generally no matter how well OAK played late in the year they were still less tehn -140 favs at home against teams like Cleveland , WSox and LAA...even against TB they were 150-170 range. Factor in Roberston was favored @ Oak in July vs Blanton I think this line is FAT. most people dont realize the difference bewteen Blanton and Zito moneywise is apprx 30 cents...so worst case OAK should be -120 here
CONCLUSION:
Tigers +130 (7x)
Under 8.5 +114 (4x)GL ...sorry its late
Well as I mentioned for some reason I was having trouble looking at this game but I have spent a couple hours looking at it from every angle .
Some minor notes -
Tigers are 24-9 L33 opening game of a series
A's are 69 -26 @ Home vs LHP
The SP matchup-Nate Roberston (LHP)
Nate made his debut in the postseason pitching at the Stadium last week. One thing you have to keep in mind is the Yankees hit LHP much better at the Stadium so dont over emphasize the results. There is a clear difference bewteen NYY vs LHP home and away. Also Robertson has pitched fairly well in the past vs them.Before his last 2 outings (NYY and Tor) Robertson has been pitching solid baseball. He had 5 consecutive solid starts generally going 6 +innings and allowing 3 runs or less..it was 5straight and actually 9 of 10 so basically since August 1st. The prior 5 starts he had lasted 35 innings and allowed 7runs (6earned). He was extremely tough on LHB and Oak has a couple holding them a .178 BAA and has a 3.42 ERA at nite this season.
Tonites A's lineup is just 10 of 65 against him career with Swisher being 0-11 , Kendall 1-14 and Kotsay 0-7. Hurt is 3-10.Robertson was at his best away this season with a 3.90 road ERA. He was 6-6 but DET just 6-10 when he started but 10 of 16 went UNDER. Also of his last 10 away starts he saw 8 UNDERS. The pen pitched well in his starts as he allowed 4.06 runs whe started but remember his ERA was 3.90..also he got 4.25 run support away.
Barry Zito (LHP)
Barry doesnt have good numbers at home this year. Upon closer review its been a strange season for Barry at home. He got shelled vs NYY in the opener losing 15 -2. After that he bounced back with a decent 7 inning and 5 run performance. His next starts athome before the break were remarkable. Oak went just 4 -3 in those starst but he went 5-2 UNDER.In those 7 starts he went at least 7 innings everytime and the final three at least 8 innings. He went 52 2/3 Innings allwoing 11 runs and 9 earned* thast a sub 2ERA) . He allowed only 40 hits and 3 hrs with a 11-34 BB to K ratio. After the Break it was a diffeernt story until his final 2 home outings. in 8 second half starts the OVER was 7-0-1 in Zito's starts. His first 6 post Break starts NEVR saw him complete 7 inninsg and only versus that depleted Boston lineup did he allow less then 4 runs (only 1 vs Boston). His final 2 home games were better. He went 7 innings allowing 4 runs and 7 2/3 allowing 3 runs. Those first 6 post break starts he allowe 29 runs in 33 1/3 innings..plus the other stats arent very good( u get the point though). Factor in the final 2 where he allowed 7 in 14 2/3 innings he allowed 36 runs at home in 48 innings over 8 starts......not very good.
What I take from this is Zito was very much STREAK orientated at home this year...7 good followed by 6 poor and now 2 good. So despite the poor second Half splits I expect a better Zito like he has pitched in hsi past few outings..along the lines of 7 innings and 3 or 4runs.
Now looking at TRENDS really OAK has nothing decisive in terms of the total.
However all of DET's trends point towards an UNDER.
Total of 8 or 8.5 away 17-6 Under (27-15 under season)
Dog og less then 150 27-10 UNDER
Raod 46 -34 UNDER and Tuesday games 15-8 UNDER
Nite 57-42 UNDER
LHP 32-18 UNDER (34-20 SU)
oakland has 4 hitters with good splits vs LHP:
Kendall .331 but just 264 @ home (1-14 against Nate)payton 296 6hrs vs LHP and .304 @ HomeBradley 293 6hrs only 243 7hrs at home. Swisher 291 8 hrs only 235 at home and 0-11 against Nate. kotsay 265 vs LHP but 0-7 against Nate and 283 Home. Hurt .245 9hr vs LHP and 242 23 hr at home(good hr per ab ratio though)Scutaro .218 off LHP but 280 @ homeChavez .268 at home but 197 against LHP and was 1-30 in the postseason before the hR in Game #3
In the 2nd H OAK was 8-1 at home vs LHP and 5-3 OVER. However they didnt face many good teams starting LHP. In the 1st H they were 5-6 vs LH SP but dropped teh first 4 meaning 13-3 L16 at home vs LHP. Still the offense didnt hit much vs LHP..11 1st H games 8 were 4 runs or less the other 3 (5,7,9). The 2nd H they scored at least 5 runs in all 9 starts. Like I said it wasnt quality teams or SP.
DET also doesnt strong numbers vs LHP. One note is DET 49hrs off LHP and OAK 50Hrs. Zito pitched well in his lone performance vs DET in April. Outside of Polance and Pudge the DET lineup is 18-108 career off Zito!! Polanco and Pudge are 15-37 off Zito though and actually casey is 3-5 but I counted that in the 18-108...culprits there are Inge , Maggs, Monroe @ 8-68 plus Guillens 6-30...14 /98 is like 144 I think!The Tigers had only 3 bats above 290 vs LHP Pudge 340 , Maggs 294 and guillen 291 . Monroe is 271 but only 2 hrs. Granderson , Inge , Thames and Caseyrange from 216 to 256 with Polanco the other regular @ 272.
Now Barry gets 4.71 runs at home and allows 5 runs per in his start(well OAK does). Again remember his ERA is 4.71 so 5.00 overall is generally good.In 12 starts with more then 5 days restthis year Zito's ERA was 2.94 significantly better then his normal ERA. In 14 starts on more then 5 days rest Robertsons ERA was 3.86 ever so slightily higher. What I didnt like was teh difference in BAA..50 pts worse on extended rest.
Now the clock is ticking and i didnt get time to talk about this but as mentioned generally no matter how well OAK played late in the year they were still less tehn -140 favs at home against teams like Cleveland , WSox and LAA...even against TB they were 150-170 range. Factor in Roberston was favored @ Oak in July vs Blanton I think this line is FAT. most people dont realize the difference bewteen Blanton and Zito moneywise is apprx 30 cents...so worst case OAK should be -120 here
CONCLUSION:
Tigers +130 (7x)
Under 8.5 +114 (4x)GL ...sorry its late
Monday, October 09, 2006
A decent Sunday in the NFL with some plays pending:
(never get my unit spacing correct)
Under 553.5 Salami (2x)
Parlay Den ML & SD ML (2x)
Teaser Den +4.5 , SD Und 47 and SD +6.5 (4x)
Sunday+7.30 units on sides and totals (Side note had a middle with Car +9 and Car -6.5, as well as Miami +10.5 had +10 posted so didnt count it)
+4.12 2nd Half plays
-4.80 Teasers
Baltimore @ Denver
First topic on this game is the line movement. It seems reasonable to think Denver is a 'SHARP' Play. All that should mean to the average bettor is guys who do this for a living see significant value in Denver. You should ask yourself why?? It doesnt mean anything more then that. A 'Sharp' is a Pro handicapper and last I check they lose wagers too and they bet thru the same sportsbooks as you and I. You can see the strange move quickly today from 4 to 4.5 to 5.5. Its strange mainly cause know matter where you look the prevailing IMO is Ravens plus the points.
So if the money is going on the Ravens why the move? Well if you read my Sunday thoughts I mentioned I thought the NYG were a Sharp play. For the same reasons. The spread looked right and was getting even action in theory. Then it started to run from 4.5 to 6 and people couldnt believe the value in the SKins. Well NY was recharged after a BYE WEEK and DEN is in the same situation. One difference is how they entered the BYE.
Lets look at the game -
The Ravens IMO are the most overrated GOOD team in the NFL. Why do I say that? Look at who they have played. The Bucs until today have been completely awful. Some might say NUT they came back versus Carolina. I will say Panthers gave them the opportunity by having 3 second half turnovers. While in theory the Raven offense has improved it really hasnt on the field and now they are missing a key OL.
Denver continues to be overlooked as a defensive juggernaut. This unit is every bit as good as Baltimore's without the names. They allowed 1 TD this season in the 4th Q of its last game. You can go to week 1 and see how they handed a solid Ram offense good field poistion time and time again yet the Rams always settled for 3! SIX TIMES! The completely shutdown the Pats on there homefield. Naturally NE is down some offensively but they did zip!
Baltimore has NOT shown the ability to consistently run the ball and Jamal Lewis is struggling again. It wont be any easier this week. Last week at home McNair managed 158 yards passing on 31 attempts! They scored there 1st TD thanks to a short field driving 22 yards. The 1st Half at home in 6 possessions they managed 25 yards of total offense!! Jamal Lewis had 15 carries for 34 yards. They had momentum for hanging around the game and the safety which led to a semi shortfield and game winning TD drive. Folks that was at home and now we are talking about the thin air and high altitude of Denver.
They previous week they squeaked out another WIN @ Cleveland. The Browns are a good BAD team meaning they actually complete but dont have much talent. They needed a INT in the end zone to keep them in the game and drove for the game winning FG. 15-14 on a 52 yd Stover FG!
In the 1st Q they started at Cle's 44 went 7 plays for 31 yards and kicked a FG. Again the defense gives them a shortfield and they still settle for 3 points. Againts a below average run defense Lewis managed 86 yards on 21 carries not bad but far from impressive...Jamal has been known to tear the Browns apart. Mcnair neededd 41 attempts to get 241 yards!! Thats less tehn 6 yds per attempt.For as much press as BALT D gets they allowed Frye to go 21 -33 for 298 with NO RUNNING GAME as Droughns was OUT. Starting a back named Jason Wright!! What will a balancedDen attack do??
The Oakland game is so telling IMO. They were given GREAT field posistion on 3 turnovers by OAK in the 1st Quarter and manged 3 FGS! They started at OAKs 32 ,29 and 35 and went 20 plays for 56 yards and 3 FGS!!! this is the Raider defense!! Look what SF did today to them.
They had 2 TDS in this game the first a drive right before half and the second near the end of the game with about 4 minutes left. In the 3Rd Q they started at OAK 32 and went backwards losing 5 yards and PUNTING!!!!!! they got the ball at OAK 15 and went 7 plays for 11 yards and a FG!!! In the 4thQ they started at Oak 43 and were picked off!!! thats 6 possesions beginning at least at OAKS 42 and only 4 FGS and 12points.....what more can they ask for? Start at the opponents 1 y line!
That day McNair managed 143 yards on 33 attempts against OAKLAND at home! Lewis had 19 carries for 70 yards with his backups picking up the slack. Against TB when they won 27-0 they had a 60 yard pick 6 and got FGS off two turnovers. They started at the TB 9 and went 4 plays for 7 yds and kicked a FG. They started at the TB 37 and went 7 plays and 13 yards and kick a FG! Another BLAH day for the offense Mcnair 181 and Lewis 78 yds. For the season they manage about 275 yards of offense.One thing is people dislike Plummer but he got comfortable vs NE and that should continue. He is usually good at protecting the ball when he isnt though he has multiple turnovers. I think the NE defense was a stiff test and he will protect the ball here again.
I dont expect the Ravens to top 14 points and probably wont top 10 if they dont get good field position. My main point is DENVERs defense is very good the Raven offense still has issues andit does not apear to me they can sustain long drives and dont have much big play ability. this makes scoring tough. Against NE we saw the Bronco offense evolve as Tatum Bell continued to his establish himself and Javon Walker reminded us whathe is capable off. I would say that the Raven defense playing in Denver is NOT as tough as the PATS defense in NE. Throw in the rested Broncos facing a Raven team that went war with SD and this could be tough.
Also note that while Balt won they were lucky to win vs SD for a variety of reasons. Remember that they opened as an UNDERDOG at home and closed at a PK. SD and Denver are basically the same type caliber teams IMO. So if SD was favored in Balt I would suspect Denver would have the same line....if it was even a PKem situation @ balt you would expect them to be at least -6 if they traveled to theer opponent.Again real simple why I felt we saw the line move was cause it was soft. Really it should have opened at -6 if you use the comparision of Denver being equal to SD. If SD is a PK(opened as road chalk)in Balt then SD would have been at least -6 if thegame was in SD. I say that thinking SD and Den are equal.
So if SD would be -6 then Denver should be -6.
A great reason to believe the BETTING PUBLIC is backing Baltimore is simply looking at SportsInteraction and BoDog. These 2 books are the 2 books that always jack up the lines and the favorites. No matter the sport you will always pay or lay more for the FAV at those books. So why are they the books with Denver -5 ? Easy! cause Balt is a PUBLIC DOG! That proves it to me.So I recomend DEN up to -6......Now I didnt speak much about Denver mainly cause I see teh ravens really struggling on offense. If a brown team can move
the ball I see no reason why they dont score 20 poiints here. GOOD LUCK!
Plays-
Denver -4-112(4x)
Denver -4 -120 (5x)
Denver -5 -105 (3x)
Under 14.5 -116 Ravens team (2x)
Loads of info on this game at CappingTheGame.com!
(never get my unit spacing correct)
Under 553.5 Salami (2x)
Parlay Den ML & SD ML (2x)
Teaser Den +4.5 , SD Und 47 and SD +6.5 (4x)
Sunday+7.30 units on sides and totals (Side note had a middle with Car +9 and Car -6.5, as well as Miami +10.5 had +10 posted so didnt count it)
+4.12 2nd Half plays
-4.80 Teasers
Baltimore @ Denver
First topic on this game is the line movement. It seems reasonable to think Denver is a 'SHARP' Play. All that should mean to the average bettor is guys who do this for a living see significant value in Denver. You should ask yourself why?? It doesnt mean anything more then that. A 'Sharp' is a Pro handicapper and last I check they lose wagers too and they bet thru the same sportsbooks as you and I. You can see the strange move quickly today from 4 to 4.5 to 5.5. Its strange mainly cause know matter where you look the prevailing IMO is Ravens plus the points.
So if the money is going on the Ravens why the move? Well if you read my Sunday thoughts I mentioned I thought the NYG were a Sharp play. For the same reasons. The spread looked right and was getting even action in theory. Then it started to run from 4.5 to 6 and people couldnt believe the value in the SKins. Well NY was recharged after a BYE WEEK and DEN is in the same situation. One difference is how they entered the BYE.
Lets look at the game -
The Ravens IMO are the most overrated GOOD team in the NFL. Why do I say that? Look at who they have played. The Bucs until today have been completely awful. Some might say NUT they came back versus Carolina. I will say Panthers gave them the opportunity by having 3 second half turnovers. While in theory the Raven offense has improved it really hasnt on the field and now they are missing a key OL.
Denver continues to be overlooked as a defensive juggernaut. This unit is every bit as good as Baltimore's without the names. They allowed 1 TD this season in the 4th Q of its last game. You can go to week 1 and see how they handed a solid Ram offense good field poistion time and time again yet the Rams always settled for 3! SIX TIMES! The completely shutdown the Pats on there homefield. Naturally NE is down some offensively but they did zip!
Baltimore has NOT shown the ability to consistently run the ball and Jamal Lewis is struggling again. It wont be any easier this week. Last week at home McNair managed 158 yards passing on 31 attempts! They scored there 1st TD thanks to a short field driving 22 yards. The 1st Half at home in 6 possessions they managed 25 yards of total offense!! Jamal Lewis had 15 carries for 34 yards. They had momentum for hanging around the game and the safety which led to a semi shortfield and game winning TD drive. Folks that was at home and now we are talking about the thin air and high altitude of Denver.
They previous week they squeaked out another WIN @ Cleveland. The Browns are a good BAD team meaning they actually complete but dont have much talent. They needed a INT in the end zone to keep them in the game and drove for the game winning FG. 15-14 on a 52 yd Stover FG!
In the 1st Q they started at Cle's 44 went 7 plays for 31 yards and kicked a FG. Again the defense gives them a shortfield and they still settle for 3 points. Againts a below average run defense Lewis managed 86 yards on 21 carries not bad but far from impressive...Jamal has been known to tear the Browns apart. Mcnair neededd 41 attempts to get 241 yards!! Thats less tehn 6 yds per attempt.For as much press as BALT D gets they allowed Frye to go 21 -33 for 298 with NO RUNNING GAME as Droughns was OUT. Starting a back named Jason Wright!! What will a balancedDen attack do??
The Oakland game is so telling IMO. They were given GREAT field posistion on 3 turnovers by OAK in the 1st Quarter and manged 3 FGS! They started at OAKs 32 ,29 and 35 and went 20 plays for 56 yards and 3 FGS!!! this is the Raider defense!! Look what SF did today to them.
They had 2 TDS in this game the first a drive right before half and the second near the end of the game with about 4 minutes left. In the 3Rd Q they started at OAK 32 and went backwards losing 5 yards and PUNTING!!!!!! they got the ball at OAK 15 and went 7 plays for 11 yards and a FG!!! In the 4thQ they started at Oak 43 and were picked off!!! thats 6 possesions beginning at least at OAKS 42 and only 4 FGS and 12points.....what more can they ask for? Start at the opponents 1 y line!
That day McNair managed 143 yards on 33 attempts against OAKLAND at home! Lewis had 19 carries for 70 yards with his backups picking up the slack. Against TB when they won 27-0 they had a 60 yard pick 6 and got FGS off two turnovers. They started at the TB 9 and went 4 plays for 7 yds and kicked a FG. They started at the TB 37 and went 7 plays and 13 yards and kick a FG! Another BLAH day for the offense Mcnair 181 and Lewis 78 yds. For the season they manage about 275 yards of offense.One thing is people dislike Plummer but he got comfortable vs NE and that should continue. He is usually good at protecting the ball when he isnt though he has multiple turnovers. I think the NE defense was a stiff test and he will protect the ball here again.
I dont expect the Ravens to top 14 points and probably wont top 10 if they dont get good field position. My main point is DENVERs defense is very good the Raven offense still has issues andit does not apear to me they can sustain long drives and dont have much big play ability. this makes scoring tough. Against NE we saw the Bronco offense evolve as Tatum Bell continued to his establish himself and Javon Walker reminded us whathe is capable off. I would say that the Raven defense playing in Denver is NOT as tough as the PATS defense in NE. Throw in the rested Broncos facing a Raven team that went war with SD and this could be tough.
Also note that while Balt won they were lucky to win vs SD for a variety of reasons. Remember that they opened as an UNDERDOG at home and closed at a PK. SD and Denver are basically the same type caliber teams IMO. So if SD was favored in Balt I would suspect Denver would have the same line....if it was even a PKem situation @ balt you would expect them to be at least -6 if they traveled to theer opponent.Again real simple why I felt we saw the line move was cause it was soft. Really it should have opened at -6 if you use the comparision of Denver being equal to SD. If SD is a PK(opened as road chalk)in Balt then SD would have been at least -6 if thegame was in SD. I say that thinking SD and Den are equal.
So if SD would be -6 then Denver should be -6.
A great reason to believe the BETTING PUBLIC is backing Baltimore is simply looking at SportsInteraction and BoDog. These 2 books are the 2 books that always jack up the lines and the favorites. No matter the sport you will always pay or lay more for the FAV at those books. So why are they the books with Denver -5 ? Easy! cause Balt is a PUBLIC DOG! That proves it to me.So I recomend DEN up to -6......Now I didnt speak much about Denver mainly cause I see teh ravens really struggling on offense. If a brown team can move
the ball I see no reason why they dont score 20 poiints here. GOOD LUCK!
Plays-
Denver -4-112(4x)
Denver -4 -120 (5x)
Denver -5 -105 (3x)
Under 14.5 -116 Ravens team (2x)
Loads of info on this game at CappingTheGame.com!
Sunday, October 08, 2006
1Pm starts:
Colts -17 -102 (buy the hook to -16.5)(2.5x) Changed to (1x) with Vinateri OUT..
Clearly the concern here is how motivated Indy is? I think with a BYE WEEK undeck that certainly helps out. Especially since Indy is nicked up..Both teams weaknesses are stopping the run and neither can really take advantage of that Rhodes and Addai are better then Brown and White. In general the Colts defense has played well this year at HOME. Holding Jags to 14 and Texans to 24 which saw 3 4thquarter TDS in a blowout. The Texan offense appears light years ahead of Tenny though. You would expect Indy to put up 35 points and I dont see Tenny breaking 17.
Past 2 years the Colts were -12.5 and -15.5 vs Tenny at RCA. Same Colts squad while Tenny is falling...Givens OUT and Bennett Questionable leaving Young with few weapons...
Panthers -7.5 -101(buy to 6.5 )(8x)
Huge key the injury situation in Cleveland...there top 3 corners are not playing. There backup safety is OUTAnd FS Brian Russell is questionable. Even the offense is banged up with Winslow and Droughns being on the injury list.Now I hate laying wood with Carolina but they got backdoored last week versus a better Saints team(better then Cle). Here we get th same number basically and that has to present value. Remember that Cle hosted NO as small favs and lost SU. Remember that Cle was catching a TD 2 weeks ago at home vs Balt. Remember Browns have struggled vs the Run enter DeAngelo Willaims and DeShaun Foster...now there solid pass defense is iffy starting there 4th and 5th corners.
Over 23 -113 Carolina team (3x)
Dolphins +10 -110 (4x)
Had played this earlier in the week thinking Dante was starting. Truth is the books and I agree that it really doesnt matter that he isnt. If the boooks cared tehy would have adjusted the line...just like when the Mets inserted Maine for ElDuque..
Pats still have some issues and the Bengals were getting to much respect last week and NE not enough after losing at home to Denver on primetime. Public sees Miami off loss to Houston and NE off win @ cincy...Remember that Phins were only +1 in Pitt in week 1...Lets see how good that Miami run defense is..
Bears -9.5 -102 (2.5x)
Teams just do NOT score in Chicago...PERIOD!
Seattle 6 points , Lions 7 points...2 games 1 TD and 2 Fgs.
Last year ATL 3 , GB 7 , Car 3 , SF 9 , Balt 6 , Minny 3 , Det 6...the lone team cincy 24 in week 2..I worry about a flat performance here but thats about all...Bills will again struggle on offense and should score 10 points...can chi top 20...I think theyget 20-23 here...
Under 35 -110 Bears & Bills (3x)
Lions +6.5 -103 (3x) ( buy it 7.5)
Minnesota is a run first offense and the Lions have been solid vs the run its the pass defense that has killed them. Brad Johnson isnt my concen as he is steady but his WR's are a question? I dont see how I can expect Minnyto score enough to be a TD fav..DET offense appears to be improving every week and they narrowly missed a win in STL. Longwell battled strep throat this week and do yo want your best offensive weapon to be ill?
Bucs +6.5 -103(2.5x) (buy to 7.5)
First thing is the most impressive part about NO has been there defense. So I expect a low scoring game. Gradkowski appeared prepared to play in the preseason IMO. The Buc offense has just struggled since day one...I expect the NO offense which IMO has struggled to score against ATL and Carolina to probably not top 20 points. Buc off a BYE will be ready to play...will the OL though?
TB is 4-1 past 5 in NO with a 3 pt loss. Not overly concerned about the Bucs run defense since it kept Car & Balt in relatiev check.
Under 35 -110 (3x) thinking 17-14 game...
Still looking at the GB / StL game...My honest OPINION is that NYG is a SHARP play. There appears to be no reason why this line continues to run up. NYG is historically bad off a bye week and betting appears to be split fairly even...yet the game keeps moving..I am staying away.
NYG ML -245 (2x)
Teaser Indy -7 , Car +2.5 , Bears +0.5 (4x)
UNDER 553.5 -104 (2x) all games GL
4 PM EstArizona Cardinals +4 -110(5x) ML +175 (1x)Yes I do think that it is quite ridiculous how one game changed a world's opinion. I loved KC last week playing a SF team known to be outmatched when it travels. Especially sincnce KC is sound fundamentally , preached defense and the run....great spot at -7.Now they face a team who has repeatedly shot itself in the foot. Warner has cost them so much the past few weeks it is amazing..the amount of red zone turnovers they had. yes, the OL is pretty poor but Ross is a plus. Having a slow, lead footed QB like Warner made it worse IMO. I loved how Leinart played in preseason...remember he missed alot of camp and still shined IMO. The offense is loaded...KC relies on the run and ARI did a good job against STL and Stephen Jackson. The ARI defense is better then the scoreboard has shown....Remember that the KC OL is still a
SF -122(2x)Over 21 -114 SF team(2x)SF had not looked awful till they traveled to KC so I expect a bounce back effort vs the NFL's worst Raiders. Anyone know how OAK scored 21 last weeK? I sure dont...fumble recovery , 59 yard run ....
Dallas +1.5 +100 (4x)I did play this the other day and clearly expect them to win so -1 or ML doesnt change my opinion. Clearly Philly is not healthy and clearly the Eagles are over emphasizing this game putting to much significance on it.....its like what the Yankees do...I understand fully what TO did to that team but that team played on MNF and is banged up especially in the secondary...not good. Dallas is the best team in THE East top to bottom IMO....it will show today.
My feeling in NY / Jax is again we understimate the JETS simply cause Jags are banged up...Stroud OUT is huge!Nothing there yet.......
Over 7.5 +100 (6x) StL and SD
Over 4 -122 STL (4x)
Over 4 First 5 Inn +106 (1.5x)
First point of interest-
Last week Woody Williams traveled to StL and faced Cris Carpenter. The total was set @ 8 and we saw a 7-5 final. So we have had a low scoring series and the books have adjusted...thats when I pounce! Now understand the perfect situation when there is an adjustment is when the betting public is unaware and still is biased to the soft side...which would be under here. Right now some movement but net , net I think its gone from -105 to over -107 and alot of places in bewteen. So really NOT the perfect storm...
Second point of interest-
This is the third look at Carpenter they are getting in about 10 days. I full realize Carpenter is awesome but if the pitcher has the edge the first time you see him then its logical to think they lose some of that edge when you see them 3 x in a week or so. Also note Carpenter has labored in those starts thrwoing 13 1/3 inngs while throwing 227 pitches. Which is about 5.7 pitches per out...17 pitches an inning...maybe only 6 or so again tonite from Cris as good as the pen has been I 'll take my chances.
Third point of Interest - Woody Williams
Williams is 3-2 with a 5.50 ERA in seven career playoff outings. However, he's failed to get out of the third inning in his last two postseason starts, going 0-1 with a 27.00 ERA.
9/26/06@ STL7-5156/8W/O6.0753 242107 17.8 1.29
10/8/05STL4-7130/8L/O1.2655 22153 31.8 2.00
7/26/05STL2-4127/7.5L/U6.0944 11197 16.2 1.83
Last 3 starts vs STL notice one was in the playoffs last year.
Comments:
Williams pitched excellent ball in Sept. However I am concerned with his splits cause he has and 8-3 away record but nearly a 1.50 higher era. Batters hit 231 athome but 295 away. His last 5 have gone OVER on the road and he has received 39 runs of suppport in those. Despite Carpenter's 1.80 home ERA it rises to 3.50 in nite starts(whether home or away). He also was left out there along time in his last few starts as STL became desperate for wins.....It appears to be a nice nite for baseball and while these teams havent hit playing back to back games is helpful for the bats.
Any questions, concerns or comments ?..GL
NCAAF
Miami - Ohio +14 -105 (4x)team total 19.5 over -111 (1.5x)
Just think its fat spread. The Northern illinois offense is great but there defense is just lacking and the always seem to underacheive ( see Buffalo and Ohio)Miami-Ohio is a team that suffered tons of turnover from last year and expectations were just to high. They have IMO competed though. Scoreless @ the half vs Northwestern and didnt trail to a block punt, took Purdue to OT on the road. Lost a close game to Kent State but they were 14 point favs. Even the recent games @ Syracuse and @ Cincy didnt unravel till the 4th Q's and Kokal didnt play last week. Even if the Huskies get up there is a nice chance they get backdoored.Lets see...
NFL
Under 37.5 -120 (3x)
Parlay ML (2x) SD & Denver
Teaser SD , Denver and Under 47 SD(4x)
Colts -17 -102 (buy the hook to -16.5)(2.5x) Changed to (1x) with Vinateri OUT..
Clearly the concern here is how motivated Indy is? I think with a BYE WEEK undeck that certainly helps out. Especially since Indy is nicked up..Both teams weaknesses are stopping the run and neither can really take advantage of that Rhodes and Addai are better then Brown and White. In general the Colts defense has played well this year at HOME. Holding Jags to 14 and Texans to 24 which saw 3 4thquarter TDS in a blowout. The Texan offense appears light years ahead of Tenny though. You would expect Indy to put up 35 points and I dont see Tenny breaking 17.
Past 2 years the Colts were -12.5 and -15.5 vs Tenny at RCA. Same Colts squad while Tenny is falling...Givens OUT and Bennett Questionable leaving Young with few weapons...
Panthers -7.5 -101(buy to 6.5 )(8x)
Huge key the injury situation in Cleveland...there top 3 corners are not playing. There backup safety is OUTAnd FS Brian Russell is questionable. Even the offense is banged up with Winslow and Droughns being on the injury list.Now I hate laying wood with Carolina but they got backdoored last week versus a better Saints team(better then Cle). Here we get th same number basically and that has to present value. Remember that Cle hosted NO as small favs and lost SU. Remember that Cle was catching a TD 2 weeks ago at home vs Balt. Remember Browns have struggled vs the Run enter DeAngelo Willaims and DeShaun Foster...now there solid pass defense is iffy starting there 4th and 5th corners.
Over 23 -113 Carolina team (3x)
Dolphins +10 -110 (4x)
Had played this earlier in the week thinking Dante was starting. Truth is the books and I agree that it really doesnt matter that he isnt. If the boooks cared tehy would have adjusted the line...just like when the Mets inserted Maine for ElDuque..
Pats still have some issues and the Bengals were getting to much respect last week and NE not enough after losing at home to Denver on primetime. Public sees Miami off loss to Houston and NE off win @ cincy...Remember that Phins were only +1 in Pitt in week 1...Lets see how good that Miami run defense is..
Bears -9.5 -102 (2.5x)
Teams just do NOT score in Chicago...PERIOD!
Seattle 6 points , Lions 7 points...2 games 1 TD and 2 Fgs.
Last year ATL 3 , GB 7 , Car 3 , SF 9 , Balt 6 , Minny 3 , Det 6...the lone team cincy 24 in week 2..I worry about a flat performance here but thats about all...Bills will again struggle on offense and should score 10 points...can chi top 20...I think theyget 20-23 here...
Under 35 -110 Bears & Bills (3x)
Lions +6.5 -103 (3x) ( buy it 7.5)
Minnesota is a run first offense and the Lions have been solid vs the run its the pass defense that has killed them. Brad Johnson isnt my concen as he is steady but his WR's are a question? I dont see how I can expect Minnyto score enough to be a TD fav..DET offense appears to be improving every week and they narrowly missed a win in STL. Longwell battled strep throat this week and do yo want your best offensive weapon to be ill?
Bucs +6.5 -103(2.5x) (buy to 7.5)
First thing is the most impressive part about NO has been there defense. So I expect a low scoring game. Gradkowski appeared prepared to play in the preseason IMO. The Buc offense has just struggled since day one...I expect the NO offense which IMO has struggled to score against ATL and Carolina to probably not top 20 points. Buc off a BYE will be ready to play...will the OL though?
TB is 4-1 past 5 in NO with a 3 pt loss. Not overly concerned about the Bucs run defense since it kept Car & Balt in relatiev check.
Under 35 -110 (3x) thinking 17-14 game...
Still looking at the GB / StL game...My honest OPINION is that NYG is a SHARP play. There appears to be no reason why this line continues to run up. NYG is historically bad off a bye week and betting appears to be split fairly even...yet the game keeps moving..I am staying away.
NYG ML -245 (2x)
Teaser Indy -7 , Car +2.5 , Bears +0.5 (4x)
UNDER 553.5 -104 (2x) all games GL
4 PM EstArizona Cardinals +4 -110(5x) ML +175 (1x)Yes I do think that it is quite ridiculous how one game changed a world's opinion. I loved KC last week playing a SF team known to be outmatched when it travels. Especially sincnce KC is sound fundamentally , preached defense and the run....great spot at -7.Now they face a team who has repeatedly shot itself in the foot. Warner has cost them so much the past few weeks it is amazing..the amount of red zone turnovers they had. yes, the OL is pretty poor but Ross is a plus. Having a slow, lead footed QB like Warner made it worse IMO. I loved how Leinart played in preseason...remember he missed alot of camp and still shined IMO. The offense is loaded...KC relies on the run and ARI did a good job against STL and Stephen Jackson. The ARI defense is better then the scoreboard has shown....Remember that the KC OL is still a
SF -122(2x)Over 21 -114 SF team(2x)SF had not looked awful till they traveled to KC so I expect a bounce back effort vs the NFL's worst Raiders. Anyone know how OAK scored 21 last weeK? I sure dont...fumble recovery , 59 yard run ....
Dallas +1.5 +100 (4x)I did play this the other day and clearly expect them to win so -1 or ML doesnt change my opinion. Clearly Philly is not healthy and clearly the Eagles are over emphasizing this game putting to much significance on it.....its like what the Yankees do...I understand fully what TO did to that team but that team played on MNF and is banged up especially in the secondary...not good. Dallas is the best team in THE East top to bottom IMO....it will show today.
My feeling in NY / Jax is again we understimate the JETS simply cause Jags are banged up...Stroud OUT is huge!Nothing there yet.......
Over 7.5 +100 (6x) StL and SD
Over 4 -122 STL (4x)
Over 4 First 5 Inn +106 (1.5x)
First point of interest-
Last week Woody Williams traveled to StL and faced Cris Carpenter. The total was set @ 8 and we saw a 7-5 final. So we have had a low scoring series and the books have adjusted...thats when I pounce! Now understand the perfect situation when there is an adjustment is when the betting public is unaware and still is biased to the soft side...which would be under here. Right now some movement but net , net I think its gone from -105 to over -107 and alot of places in bewteen. So really NOT the perfect storm...
Second point of interest-
This is the third look at Carpenter they are getting in about 10 days. I full realize Carpenter is awesome but if the pitcher has the edge the first time you see him then its logical to think they lose some of that edge when you see them 3 x in a week or so. Also note Carpenter has labored in those starts thrwoing 13 1/3 inngs while throwing 227 pitches. Which is about 5.7 pitches per out...17 pitches an inning...maybe only 6 or so again tonite from Cris as good as the pen has been I 'll take my chances.
Third point of Interest - Woody Williams
Williams is 3-2 with a 5.50 ERA in seven career playoff outings. However, he's failed to get out of the third inning in his last two postseason starts, going 0-1 with a 27.00 ERA.
9/26/06@ STL7-5156/8W/O6.0753 242107 17.8 1.29
10/8/05STL4-7130/8L/O1.2655 22153 31.8 2.00
7/26/05STL2-4127/7.5L/U6.0944 11197 16.2 1.83
Last 3 starts vs STL notice one was in the playoffs last year.
Comments:
Williams pitched excellent ball in Sept. However I am concerned with his splits cause he has and 8-3 away record but nearly a 1.50 higher era. Batters hit 231 athome but 295 away. His last 5 have gone OVER on the road and he has received 39 runs of suppport in those. Despite Carpenter's 1.80 home ERA it rises to 3.50 in nite starts(whether home or away). He also was left out there along time in his last few starts as STL became desperate for wins.....It appears to be a nice nite for baseball and while these teams havent hit playing back to back games is helpful for the bats.
Any questions, concerns or comments ?..GL
NCAAF
Miami - Ohio +14 -105 (4x)team total 19.5 over -111 (1.5x)
Just think its fat spread. The Northern illinois offense is great but there defense is just lacking and the always seem to underacheive ( see Buffalo and Ohio)Miami-Ohio is a team that suffered tons of turnover from last year and expectations were just to high. They have IMO competed though. Scoreless @ the half vs Northwestern and didnt trail to a block punt, took Purdue to OT on the road. Lost a close game to Kent State but they were 14 point favs. Even the recent games @ Syracuse and @ Cincy didnt unravel till the 4th Q's and Kokal didnt play last week. Even if the Huskies get up there is a nice chance they get backdoored.Lets see...
NFL
Under 37.5 -120 (3x)
Parlay ML (2x) SD & Denver
Teaser SD , Denver and Under 47 SD(4x)
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