Jusr horrible effort , gameplan and coaching by everyone associated with Miami Ohio except there defense. Bewteen the vanilla play calling and lack of touch by the QB the offense sputtered in th 1st H. Mix in shitty kicking from the FG who decided the gam by missing an easy straight ahead mid 30's FG down 14-3. Then why go for an onside down 21-10 with 9 minutes left when you just had consecutive drives where you moved the ball quickly...stupid play but worse execution.....probably should have played BC and that inflated number. Like everyone you just expect VaTech to win here but how on a neutral field does this game see anything other VT -1.5 ???At least I didnt play the hokies....

Watching the beginning of the RU/Ville game I continually asked myself where was this RU offense coming from? Teel can play the QB position fairly well but all season long its been either his bad thumb causing inconsistencies Or his talented WR's dropping easy catches. Early on the RU offense looked like a well oiled machine. I felt they were playing over there head. However I was asking myself what I did I miss when capping this game?? Once it got 21-3 there was obvious concern that was somewhat mentally downplayed by the fact that I knew WVU jumped out to a big lead and the Cards were able to come back. Helping matters was that was @ WVU and this was home. So once 21-3 came I was basically waiting for that 1 play or drive that iced the game whether it be on offense or defense. It never came. If your watching that game you had to feel pretty good about Lville winning it after the Cards scored right before half. It did a number of things for the Ville. It instilled some confidence , some life in the fans that were left , it cast some doubt in the RU defense and it showed how quick the Louisville O could change the game if the defense could slow RU. I felt all along that while the Cards defense had not played fgood all season the past month it had shown great improvement and the 2nd H it showed. Once the held RU to a FG when they were inside the 5 yd line it became a question of could Ville sustain momentum. Could they score and cut it to 7? Well they did rather easily and quickly. Then they got another stop and could they do it again. The momentum just built and really if you sit back and think about it was the exact same thing that happened in last years meeting. It was like the UNIVERSE evening out....so tough PUSH hopefully for the RU backers and a nice win that should have been easier by Ville....So while it looked very lucky for Ville backers I would simply ask what made you BET RU in the 1st place ?? What advantage did they have ?

More NCAAF :

11AM start : MAC Championship CMU vs Miami Ohio:

Miami Ohio +3.5
After looking at these teams I have decided one thing . While CMU is extremely talented on OFFENSE it's overalll team effort is very average. There defense is poor and they are prone to penalties. Miami has played very sound defense and we know defense wins championships.

What I find concerning is that while Miami lost last week it had 5 FG's including 3 that were kicked inside the 5 yard line. They also won the time of possession and held Ohio to 200 yards of total offense!! Where CMU lost the TOP , had more turnovers , more penalties and yet had a 2-1 yardage advantage. Look at CMU lately. They got smoked @ Clemson , beat a 3rd string Frosh QB by 9 @ Kent State , edged WMU by 3 , lost at home to EMU by 3 and won @ Akron by 3 .

To me the best thing CMU did all year was win convincingly @ Ball State. However they were really under the radar due to shabby play and were catching 12 that day cause Ball State had been on somewhat of a roll and CMU had lost to North Dakota State at home. However Miami Ohio also won @ Ball State in the opener 14-13 catching only 4 points....

So basically what I am getting at is minus the Akron game the Miami Ohio Offense has been able to move the ball. I believe Brandon Murphy played last week and got 4 carries which would be a huge lift if he is available. CMU pulled two wins out of its ass on the road @ WMU and @ Akron. They just dont impress me as a TEAM and there schedule hasnt done much for me either......plus they fact they coasted the past two weeks doesnt help either IMO.....

C-USA :

Despite believing that UCF is the much better team I think 7.5 is to many here. Tulsa run defense isnt that bad its there pass defense thats horrendous. Which means you need more from Israel then previously IMO. No doubt Smith will get his but Israel will have to play well and for me he is to inconsistent. So small lean to Tulsa covering the 7.5 with senior Paul Smith at the gun. Really the Houston win was so impressive where as UCF was beating up bottom dwellers . Naturally there defense vs Rice and Army is alarming ....which means Over 74 looks low....42-38 Final?

Army vs Navy:

Army is not a very good team. However Navy's defense especially its pass defense is poor. I did notice that carson Williams played well vs a similiar bad Tulsa defense and even versus another bad pass defense in CMU. Navy is 0-5 ATS laying 7 or more and there wins have been by 11 3 times and twelve once. so they havent won a game allseason by two TDs. While Army played a very tough schedule littered with solid defenses. BC , GT , Wake from the ACC and even RU and AF sport above average power conference defenses IMO. So if you believe Army will score then take the points...navy should get there 38-42 which tells you why the total is 65 cause they expect Army to score at least 24....thinking about taking the points in the rivalry game cause Army should be able to score and Navy hasnt stopped anyone.....Also Army did a sound job vs the triple option last year and they prepare for it and are feeling confident they have a legit shot in this game if the defense performs like it did last season vs Navy and the offense builds off the Tulsa performance......plus anytime a team has 3 straight wins that 4th year the senior class always wants that one real bad....



GL

NBA Thoughts :

Two quick comments. First is message boards seen rampant with comments about fading the public , line movement , reverse line movement , etc. When looking at lines two things should be considered before all else. First is the line proper ? Bad lines always lose . You need to then ask yorself if you feel a line is off why is it adjusted ? Whether it be higher or lower. Perfect example is last night with Cle @ Det. If you are a situational capper you should have been HUGE on the Pistons last evening. First the Cavs were in an awful spot. Playing 4th in 5 nites and off OT. The OT game was a huge matchup facing the Celtics but they had played earlier close games vs Tor on Sat and @ indy on Sunday. So combine tough games with travel , B2b off OTand youhave a very limited BENCH!!! Devin Brown , Ira Newble and damon Jones is basically all Then factor you have DET getting healthy with two days rests off ahome loss. Plus possible some payback in mind after Det was ousted by CLE in the playoffs. Everything was against CLE. You think they opened the game -9.5 for a reason? I sure did . Clearly LeBron has carried Cle of late and there are just some spots when its to muck to ask from a player especially when DET plays tough defense. As high as theline seemed we did de see -6 throughout the playoffs so I knew why the line was asjusted. Then bet accordingly. The other part is there is just to much emphasis on fading line moves and the betting public w/o capping the game. You want to be contrarian thats fine but pick your spots every game doesnt have some sort of mystery to it. I am guility at times as well of this but traps are caused by situations and misunderstanding of teams and lines not so much a design by the oddsmakers even though there job is to trap bettors into betting bad lines.

Also when teams are COLD dont lay heavy chalk with them cause funks last several games. Right now we have DAL , LAL , Den off the top of my head as teams who lay heavy lumber but are playing poorly. Right now GSW is on fire and after winning vs PHO in the WORST SPOT I made a mistake of jumping the gun and fading them in Sac. when truth be told chances are the HOU game was the situational tougher one. The Rockets have won 3 games now in somewhat impressive fashion which makes them look like they are getting hot. GSW played on the EAST , came home beat PHO , now traveled to Sac and won with a game vs Hou here .

Very tough to fade GSW right now but that is a possibility here cause Hoiuston could be in the midst of what GSW was a week ago.....Same with Bos actually. They are slumping abit where as NYK has put together two solid games now. Why run and lay -13 ??

be back later......BOL

CFB:


RU @ Louisville

Crazy matchup IMO. First we have a HUGE REVENGE factor in this game. Some people will say this is an overused angle in capping. It is to a degree just cause one team beats another doesnt make the next meeting a so called revenge or payback situation. It's more about what made that game so emotional or along that degree of thinking that sets up a revenge spot IMO. Here we have the rematch of what was two undefeated teams who were battling for the Big East crown and possible BCS/ National Championship berth. With Louisville up big at half they fell to pieces and couldnt recapture the momentum. As Brohm put it a downward spiral they couldnt escape. I do not like Kragthorpe as a head coach as from what I have seen he has made many bad decisions and seems like a gambler. Back to the revenge aspect - If you dont believe me listen to Harry Douglas of Da Ville who is playing probably his last game. "I've definitely had this game circled all year," wide receiver Harry Douglas said. "That game broke my heart last year. It's probably the only thing that's ever broken my heart in my whole life. So I've been waiting for this one." Also OL Giacomini is from NJ and is putting huge emphasis on a good showing.

Some other factors are Louisville playing for Bowl eligibilty. They still will have an uphill battle to get a bowl but a impressive beating of RU should be helpful . Especially when you have a stud prospect in Brohm to use as a selling point. On the other hand RU appears headed to the INTERNATIONAL BOWL in Toronto. No , it has not been confirmed but appears very likely at the moment. You naturally have senior night , last home game and possibly last game for Brohm , and maybe some negative perception due to the USF beatdown. Plus the prospect of RU being flat if the players believe that win or lose its the INTERNATIONAL BOWL.

Looking at the entire season what has RU done to impress anyone?? Seriously please tell me. Factor in Teel's thumb injury which is supposedly getting better but also needs just one hit and its reaggravated( 3 big passes to Britt last week and nothing else). There best wins are Navy , Pitt and USF at home. All which could and maybe should have been losses. RU pulled out every trick in the book to beat USF at home which is two totally different teams Home and Away. Thank Navy for repeated turnovers near or in the end one and Pitt if the had any offense would have won. Still they had TD nullified at the end cause of offensive pass interference and then were picked off on the next play. They had a ton of drives starting in RU territory but often choose to just run the ball and settle for FGs. They even missed a short 31 FG . Now Pitt also played Lville well and could have tied it late. However I think they won @ Cincy and battled back to TIE WVU @ 31 in the closing minutes before Pat White made a play to end it. Where as Cincy probably undeservingly won @ RU and WVU smoked RU in the rain at home. Even look at the UConn game. Both traveled there and again Lville much better showing. They didnt put the Huskies away and lost where as RU was never really in the game. Louisville was down this year. The defense struggled vs Middle Ten and it carried over somewhat to Kentucy. Woodson made plays to defeat Lville in the 4th quarter. It was a coin flip game and how would RU fair @ Kentucky? I think knowing how bad Cuse was they came in flat after such a huge loss. They caught Utah when they were getting healthy and again what would RU do vs them?

See the RU offense has progressed with its passing game thanks to better WR's. Though they still suffer from drops. They did not replace Leonard and Clark @ FB and TE which hurts them in 3rd downs and red zone effeciency IMO. While the Cards have struggled to find a consistent running game and may use Powell more here in look to next year.

I understand Louisville defense is bad. I will point out that Slayton did not play well vs them and if Teel is less then 100% maybe they can contain Rice who seems to be to overly depended on to provide offense. Also I dont think RU defense is anywhere near as good as it looks statisically. Weak opponents do that. They played hardly any good offenses all season.

Remember that both started with high expectations leading to some huge numbers to cover.

At the end of the day I think this game has to much significance for Louisville bewteen stars playing there last home game and possible last game , bowl eligibilty and revenge. To boot they are the better TEAM IMO and Home with a line that you basically just need a win...the defense played fairly solid @ Cincy , @ UConn and vs Pitt. It struggled somewhat with WVU though 38 points isnt a bad showing @ WVU. It wasnt till USF where maybe they were caught in a fog did they look bad. They looked asleep allowing the opening kick which was fumbled for a TD. Maybe off a tough defeat and lookahead spot they werent properly focused and before they knew it they had a huge defecit to overcome.

Thinking about -140 but just may lay -2.5.....I think 60 points may be alot here cause RU will run alot rather then get in a shootout I believe...high end you might see 34-24 but thinking more like 31-20.....

Good Luck

You ever wonder what holds you back from going forward with one play(s) and pushes you onto another? In all seriousness anyone watching the downpour @ Heinz Field coupled with the knowledge of the new sod after the FRI & SAT games had to ask themselves how will anyone score ? In fact the game reminded me of one of Big Ben's first career starts in Miami during a storm where the Steelers won something like 13-3.

I thought you had to take Miami cause there probably wouldnt be 15 points scored in the game. You had to take the UNDER and the 1st Half UNDER. You could take every UNDER in each quarter. If you had FG PROP the approriate play was the UNDER in that. My book didnt have one cause they KNEW it was an easy under. That game should have been a CASH COW. You know what I took and maybe something I can use an excuse was having to be somewhere at 9 PM was an entire 1/2 unit on the 1st H under!! lets not forgot the team totals Under 12 Miami and Under 28 Pitt!!!! It really eats at me to no end.

Another subject is I have trouble making decisions. Part of the anxiety issue and possibly some ADD or other disorder. Though I havent had it confirmed yet. Anyway my point is I look at the game spend hours capping it and writing it up for nothing. I sad the KEY was the weather. Well not being in Pitt I needed to see some visual confimation of the field before making a decision. So again all that work done and the weather is so bad the ONLY way to play is it take the points +16 and the under...no capping required. So my point is I try to gather INFO to make the best decision possible before gametime. In my opinion there really are to many factors to bother worrying about early lines and the best line. You should cap a game to win/ lose by the closing line. Rarely does the difference in lines from OPEN to CLOSE make a difference on how your wager is graded.

Now due to limited time its impossible to write down my thoughts on the entire card and always seem to leave out some solid plays..Kings , Ov 1st H warriors , Over 1st H washington U .....Have ro do better to get my entire card out there cause it helps me cross the tee's and dot the i's....


And we move on.....

NBA:
Boston @ Cle :
Ray Allen is playing with a bum ankle and dont see 1 day off doing all that much to help it. Tony Allen looks doubtful for the bench but his role has been limited anyway. Cavs playing 3rd in 4 days and still pissed I didnt take them on Sunday cause I couldnt understand how they were +2?? No way Indy should have been favored...I cant see how Boston opened at -3 and went higher. I thought worst case we would see BOS -1.5. They havent played all that well on the road winning in OT @ Toronto , losing in Orl by 2 after a furious rally and barely defeating Charlotte at the buzzer. They whipped NJN w/o Carter and who didnt ? they beat up On Indy shortly after Diogu was lost and Daniels was OUT. depth is always an issue for Cle and with Hughes out of the lineup they tend to score more and allow more. Think Cavs ...

Memphis @ NJN :
The Nets look like a different team with the services of Vince and Nachbar playing like he did last year. Looking at the past few games and knowing MEMPHIS up-tempo style I would suggest an OVER here but remain cautious and want to see where this total ends up cause memphis is OFF a game where they exceeded 240..(a caution flag for me) What makes this a complicated game is NJN is playing its 1st game back after a West Coast Swing which ended pretty late on Sunday . So you wonder if they are flat here or if they have the legs to run with memphis. They have off till 12/1 after this and if they hadnt won 3 straight this would be an automatic fade. I did fade LAL on Sunday due to them returning from a west coast swing as well as the Struggling Hornets yesterday. I stayed off of GSW cause they were coming back from Philly playing a rested Suns team. That was a mistake clearly. The Grizzlies are NOT a good road team losing 5 straight and stand at 1-6 thanks to lowly Seattle which faded in the 4th quarter like they always do.


Charlotte @ Miami

Really dont have much of an opinion on this game. Thought the line would be -7 / -7.5 here since Wade has returned and he is worth 4 maybe 4.5 points in my estimation. Miami has NOT shown to play 4 quarters so laying points is a risky play IMO. Would prefer loking at the OVER 187. Basically the same total as when Wade missed the 1st meeting which finished 90-88(186 posted total). Heat offense looks better and they should get 95 or so points here but the question remains what does Charlotte score..think worst case 88-90...but that still leaves one short. I do think Miami will have REVENGE on there mind after the embarrassing game @ Charlotte when Riley called them out soon after.

Philly @ Milw

The question marks surround the availability of Mason and Mo Williams for Milw. The Sixers should have Korver back for action but a shooter being out so long would reasonable struggle for a game or two. You never know though. With te loss of your PG you would expect the offense to dropoff some. For the most part Philly has offensive issues and the Bucks have played some solid Defense at home to date. Like the Under 186.5 and may play the 1st H under 93 as well....Think this game doesnt get past 180....
As for a side its tough to pick with 2 starters possibly OUT for MILW. Philly has not been good on the road -7 was correct if they Bucks were at full strength. So with that I owuld have to pass. I do like the fact that MILW acknowledges this as a big game due to previous playing UP or DOWN to competition.

Atl @ Chi :

The Bulls return from a road trip and a loss on Sat and Sunday. I was pretty confident they would win on Sun but they played terrible in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Not really sure what to make of either team at the moment but 181 seems real low...

Pacers @ Nuggets :

Denver is short big men and banged up with melo and AI supposedly needing some rest. I think you have to see DEN's play as subpar past 3 games and would have to fade them until they show improvement and get healthy. I cannot rely on past DEN beatings at home as an indication. Should be uptempo game. As much as thi sshould be a run N gun game w/o Kleiza and martin the Den offense isnt as highpowered. 218 is alot of points.....if the over is intrugiung probably prefer the 1st H over...


Seattle @ LAL :
While on the surface 1 looks alot of points remember that SEA has been blownout often on the road and couldnt cover 10 at home Vs SA.....You would think LAL looks to rebound after letting the SUNDAY game get away. Another thing to remember is that like PORT in previous years Sonics have shown to either lose ATS or win SU as a road dog. So if you dont think SEA wins here SU then it probably pays to pass on the points. Small lean on 1st H over cause there will be alot of shots taken here and LAL -11...However recently LAL has played low scoring 1st H and that is a concern so maybe the game over is better...

Problem with typing my thoughts it leaves less time for decisions. Quick decision on the 140 total in USF was a pass...hating myself for that now as well as passing on the Davidson over...only played 1/2 unit on Iowa 1st H as well...added Arky State though....and last minute after seeing the Temple total drop to 134 played a 1/2 unit on the over...didnt finish the late games yet had to do NBA ....

NBA :

Under 194 or Under 95 1st H not sure what has better value...
NYK has scored mid 80's in 4 straight , 5 of 6 and 6 of 8. With only the games versus Pho and Sac seeing more...sort of self explatanory..Utah been scored mid 90's to a 102....but playing solid defense making it apoint to keep teams under 100 pt....so if NY wasnts to win defense most beon the menu cause the offense is struggling......Some chatter that the Utah line is soft but I disagree as I expected 5.5 or 6 and we opened at 5.5....NY has to show me some consistency and Utah typical struggles on the road as medium chalk...

NCAAB :

like everyone out there trying to get a feel for some of these teams if not all. One thing that helps is I rely on determination of weak or strong lines combined with situational aspects....

Akron -4 -120: of course it went from -4.5 to -5.5 while I was typing

I think the sentiment with Akron is they aren't as good as years past. However we can't rely on the Alaska tournament to make this determination. They clearly didnt play well vs inferior competition but it was there first 3 games of the season. Now they have returned home and beat up on a cupcake squad. What has Temple done to date? Okay they beat BG as Pick tahnks in part to a huge second half where BG went cold. BG is a team with anew head coach off a 3-13 conference record who is not is the class of Akron..Hell Akron was -8.5 and -17.5 vs BG last season. Temple barely beat Marist a MAAC school , lost to Charleston and Providence in Hawaii. They have been traveling alot and at some point that will catch up to them....can Wood continue to play well and can Allen stay out of foul trouble...

So basically Akron has been tough at home , lost only 7 games last season , are facing a team who is on the upswing but not there yet and last if TEmple is a PK vs BG then shouldnt this be closer to 8 or so......?? Plus remember how Temple couldnt score vs providence late?? That would concern me vs a solid defensive squad....

Would have prefered the Under at 139 or better...thinking 71-63 game....so 136ish cuts it close..

Over 140 USF and FIU :{LEAN}

Would lean towards USF cause this is FU 1st quality opponent. Simply put I expect both teams to be in the 70s here and ....game should see 150's or better...USF should get to the line and I am hopefully they can combine for 70% from the lien despite high 60's avg to date...total drop has be looking at this more closely...


App St +6 :
Sure Davidson has revenge on its mind but getting revenge on the road isnt quite that easy. Especially when u have to win by 7 points on top of that. It seem sthat Davidson are the public darlings of the mid major ranks now. They hung with UNC in the opener after a great postseason last year. Problem is App State beat them on the road last year. App St has lost some qaulity players and Davidson is back seemingly in tack. However I think Davidson probably wins by 2-4 points in a close battle that Davidson pulls ahead in the final two minutes....thinking about the OVER 151 as well...

1st H Under and 1st H Iowa :

Simply put Wake's 1st true road game . Iowa could be tired after the Texas trip but its not a trip where they had to leave the country so I am not weighing that heavily. Iowa has offenive issues and if they play zone they force WF to shoot which has not been a strong point to date.....


Cant say I know a thing about Murray State or Ark St . However I think Murray State is about 6 pts better then E.ILL on a neutral court( ArK St last opponent). It appears Ark State is also about 6 points better then E.Ill on a neutral court..so I would make Murray St -1 on a neutral vs Ark St and ONLY -4.5 at home. They opened at -5.5 and went to -6.5 . So my guessestimates have this as a FAT Line but I have absolutely noknowledge to back it up and yet this line was driven higher.....this could be a public sentiment fade at +7 -120....not sure though a pure guess by me that this line is off....Ark St +7 -120...

Still working on later games.....GL

What a great game to watch last night . I have to admit I really didn't see that coming. More so from the offensive standpoint though. I did think while Philly had some issues on defense if they hit hard( make NE know your there) and did not allow huge , quick passing plays they could make NE work for there points. I thought NE would be around 35 points but my concern was the Philly offense(10pts maybe?). I never thought Feeley could play so well. He made two huge mistakes that cost the game. The bright side is without his excellent play it never would have been a game.

It goes back to NE being a well oil machine and the rest of the league always trying to make something out of nothing. Like why throw that pass in the end zone ? You score you allow to much time for the NE offense. Why not continue to keep it small and grind it out? That's because most coaches and players get "lost" of situational play while the game is going on. The PATS simply do not. NE has played 5 opponents with defenses that hit hard enough to disrupt NE offense. SD , Dallas , Philly , Indy and maybe Cle. The Browns if not for bad turnovers played them MUCH closer then the final score. Think about Dallas led in the 3rd quarter but there secondary couldn't get it done , Indy led to start the 4th q , SD was never in it and Philly led in the 4th Q. NE will DESTROY inferior opponents but they are far from invincible. Plus you have the added motivation of being 3 TD Underdogs now...I think if Heap plays the Ravens if there defense is healthy can do the same. By the same I mean compete with NE....



MNF:

What a MNF game. The injury list is over flowing for these teams. The WEATHER sucks and Heinz Field not a great field to begin with is hosting its 3rd game since Friday night. They have put down new sod but it may be a moot point due to the rain , though the field is covered. We know Pitt will be minus two key players but in general there level of play should not drop much here. They pitched a shutout vs SEA @ home with there all-pro safety out and Holmes absence limits the er ability to stretch the field.

Miami :
1) John Beck starts @ QB in his 2nd career start on MNF no less...( more pressure and jitters). Last week he was 9 of 22 with 109 yds passing. The Phins had ONLY 8 plays of 10+ yards on offense and TWO of 20 + yds. They were 1 for 7 passing on 3rd down and 0 for 3 running for it. Beck did manage to gain 3 yds for a 1st Down on 3rd down early in the game( so 2 of 11). They clearly seem to have a tough time making plays on offense and Chatman who had 3 of the 10+ yd plays is OUT. Also Chatman a big back couldn't get short yardage 3rd downs on the ground so that is another era they will suffer.

2) Ronnie Brown done for the season was capably replaced by Jesse Chatman who will be absent tonight. That leaves Samkon Gado and former stud Ricky Williams who has not played in awhile and who hasn't been hit in how long?? Practiced one whole week with a new offensive system....just doesn't seem to be any positive in this situation. Especially cause there seem to be some expectations for Ricky Williams here cause he may get 20 touches....remember when Testaverde came in off the streets...there were NO EXPECTATIONS and he performed fairly well. That's a key difference.

3) Another LB done in Derrick Pope?? He did make the walk through yesterday and is in PITT supposedly. For the most part the Miami defense has held it together past 3 weeks though can you find 3 more struggling offenses then NYG , Buffalo and Philly having Donovan throw 2 costly picks only to be replaced by a QB who hadn't played this year.

4) With Miami WINLESS and a new young QB they will be trying very hard every week to WIN....

5) While the Miami defense played well...did it really ?? I didn't see the game last week. having three INTs inside Miami's 30 cost the Philly offense anywhere between 9 and 21 points ....on top of the 17 they scored....the second half Philly scored twice in four possessions. The last possession they basically up 10 pts milked the clock for 6 + minutes and gave Miami one final play....so they did what they had despite the boxscoe maybe not showing it...

6} While Pitt has smoked Balt , SF , and Buffalo at home while pitching a shutout vs Seattle people still seem to miss how good there defense can be. Yes they scored alot of points versus Balt but ONLY cause the Ravens offense is gross with McNair at QB and they had short after short field that day.....the browns managed a TD on the opening drive but little afterwards. The had a punt return for a TD , a kick return to the 5 yd line or so and INT deep in there own territory starting CLE at the 18 yd line...so keeping Ginn shut down is a key ...Teams in general though struggle to move the ball on vs the Pitt defense w/o help...The Cle game came after the brutal hitting Balt MNF game and after road games @ Denver and Cincy..so Pitt looked beat up heading into Cle and after surviving that game were flat @ NYJ who after all they were big favs over...

I dont think Pitt plays to its opponent as much as it just has a huge difference in play at home versus the road....they lost games late @ Denver , @ Arizona and @ NYJ...I wouldn't say they were beaten but they did lose.....


Now we have Pitt off a bad road loss on TV again. Monday Night has been good to them...I would say they have something to prove after the Jets loss and even NE struggle last night. The key though is the awful weather( and possible shit field conditions) that could neutralize alot of there dominance. How will Miami score ?? Last week they had a punt return and Ginn is dangerous and Pitt has shown special teams can be soft at times. They also had 4 shots at the 1 yd line and couldn't score....remember that AJ Feeley has long been in the Philly system and done this before...been great in relief of McNabb due to injury...John Beck doesn't fit that mold...so dont compare last night to here.....

I think Pitt should win 27-3 maybe 27-10...

Alot of points (-16) but I just didn't see anything from Miami last week to like them here. I was on SF cause they showed improvement vs STL falling basically a play short while showing there defense was still playing hard. They have an inconsistent offense which turns the ball over to much and settles for FGS often on long drives. There defense while solid is not a shut down defense....Pitts can be...Think about this the same Buffalo team that went down to Miami was blasted in Pitt as 10 pt dogs...at this point with Beck starting and Chatman OUT the Bills are probably a TD better on a neutral field( they were short favs in Miami) so now does -16 seem all that high.....???

If Pitt plays there "a" game and doesn't make mistakes they should easily cover the huge number.....one thing that NFL has taught me this year is that bad teams are bad this year week in and week out....



Right now all that is holding me back from Pitt is the weather and the playing field....if it was a normal day out I would be on the Steelers already...however the weather and field conditions are an unknown that can hurt Pitts ability to perform at peak performance and that's what you want when you have a big number..

WOW! can you have worst LUCK??

Rams choke like I knew they would without Bulger. However the ball on the 4 yd line with 4 tries they cant get in. Inside the half yard line they fumble the snap....

Campbell throws NOT one BUT TWO picks inside the TB 25 in the final 5 minutes...


Losman throws a pick inside the red one down 22-14 in the final 1/2 of the 4th quarter....

At least fading CLE was just a stupid move.....

OAK and Minny win ouright.....

Mix in a Chi Bulls choke and AGGRAVATED is an UNDERSTATEMENT right now!

NBA ...

Bulls +5.5 : Yesterday I had NYK in the afternoon delight. Today I flip back to da Bulls. Basically Chi wasruined by an awful 2nd quarter yesterday and won the OTHER 3 quaarters. They also made a late push but fell just short. The Raps are playing shorthanded with some key injuries and let one get away in Cle yesterday. Following the ones that got away in Dallas and vs GSW in the pas week. I think while Chi is on its last game of the trip they are desperate for a WIN. Deng should play and that is a HUGE offensive boost. Despite the long trip they havent had a horrible travel schedule with long rest before yesterdays game. Tor had a rough trip to Dallas , memphis and Cle playing 3 tough games...now 4th in 6 days with a short bench.. Chi plays defense and should wear on the home squad....not to mention CHI has some revenge for that embarrasment earlier.....

NFL:

Over 36.5 Jags -120( Mathis OUT @ CB)
Raiders +5
Skins +4 -120
Rams +4 -120
Texans +4 -120
Vikings +8 -120
Panthers +3 -125(small)
strong> Bills +10 -130

Still working.....GOOD LUCK

NFL Thoughts :

Looking at the early starts the UNDERDOGS really stand out .

Buffalo Bills +8 :

Doesn't this spread look quite big ? I think I am in the minority of people who believed that last Sunday Buffalo had no shot in that game. For someone who hates to lay road chalk I didn't waiver at the -10 for the 1st Half. The Bills are a bend don't break type team in every sense. Facing a team NE who is loaded with offensive firepower and backed with a stud defense was a task they could not overcome. If you referenced the Dallas game there is one huge difference between Dallas and NE. That is NE NEVER EVER seems to beat itself. They don't make unforced errors. Why did Buffalo play Dallas tight and all you have to do is look at Tony Romo's play. The PATS are a well oil machined with a history of shutting down Lee Evans. How would Buffalo crack 14 points ??

Anyway that beating provides motivation for a 5-5 Buffalo team and creates negative public perception.

Lets remember that Jax has now lost Mike Peterson there self proclaimed defensive leader and possibly CB Rashean Mathis. This is addition to the loss of Marcus Stroud. Peterson loss puts another LB in his spot and puts a bench player in the other spot. Really creating 2 players in different positions then last week.

The Jags struggle vs the pass and flat out stop the run. Well the one thing Losman can do is throw deep balls to Lee Evans. If Mathis is OUT the advantage becomes even greater but still he figures to be less then 100%. Rivers looked like crap versus Indy then went for 300 yards vs Jax. So look for Buffalo to be able to put some points on the board here. Also note that Jags could be in look ahead mode with a game @ Indy the following week. This year Jags are 0-2 laying more then 7 and last year were 2-2 (0-2 as DD previous year). Not the greatest team laying big numbers sort of like how Carolina is. WHich is due to there history of being a solid defense who depends on running the ball.

Despite UNDER trends this seems like an OVER to me cause both defenses are overrated....something to consider could be the Bills team total...14 ??


Skins +3.5

Call me crazy but I don't see how TB in the eyes of oddsmakers is even or even slightly better then Wash? After all the Skins were -3 to Philly a few weeks ago , only +3 @ GB , -9 vs Zona and so on....now yes I will agree these were mostly bad lines I faded. They were off but not extremely off say with in 3 points of real value IMO.

Even with the Skins injuries I think this should be closer to -1.5 TB. After all Campbell has played TB as that was his 1st career start in 20-17 loss last year. The secondary is banged up but held up well outside of Springs performance in Dallas. Reportedly he just wasn't there mentally being in Dallas where his father is hospitalized among other things.

Outside of the Pats road game the Skins have been fairly solid in 4 road games and should have won in GB. Look at the QBs TB has defeated..Leftwich / Harrington , Warner , Kerry Collins and barely( actually lost to Quinn Gray ) , David Carr , Marc Bulger with bad ribs in a monsoon and Drew Brees early on as 5 pt home dogs.

Huge game for the 5-5 Skins and as maligned s the secondary is with injuries you have to take away one WR on TB and let Graham beat you..

Campbell has 5 TD vs 1 INT past 2 weeks and is spreading the ball around well. Thrash(still OUT) , McCardell , S.Moss , Randle El and Cooley all involved.

Rams +3.5

How can I not like a home dog playing a divisional game. First thing is the last meeting is way misleading. I believe Torry Holt dropped a pass that would have been a TD right after Sea's Burleson returned the 2nd H kickoff for a TD. They just fell apart after that. I wont knock the Rams for last week cause SF has been solid on defense nearly every week. Hasselback and Hackett don't look to be 100% and Alexander is still out. Rams are getting healthier each week and now Stussie returns. If not for Stephen Jackson re injuring himself in the CLE game they would be on a 3 game win streak.

Raiders +5 :

Lets see OAK's CBs are healthy again and they stink vs the run. Oh wait . LJ is OUT still and Holmes HAD TO retire! That leaves Kolby Smith with 10 carries and 17 yards as your featured back. Mix in the young Brodie Coyle and Dwayne Bowe and this is an awfully RAW offense.

People will get excited about the way the played INDY. Which was great but whats changed? They outplayed them and lost . Do they know how to win and can they kick FG's??? Serious questions to ask.

Culpepper found the deep touch again hooking up on some long plays. It's hard to believe but Oak has the better offense at this point and better kicker. To me the defenses are even but KC has home field but playing at Arrowhead is not such a big deal these days.....also look @ OAK schedule this may be the last winnable game for them.

Vikings +7.5

A game truly loaded with injuries. All world stud RB Peterson is almost definitely OUT . More intriguing to me is the fact Tony Richardson looks doubtful and that is quite the loss IMO. Also on defense Winfield figures not to play.

This would be more a play AGAINST NYG then on Minnesota. Sure they are a dome team in the cold but they won at CHI in 55 degree weather should be low 40s here. NYG will be w/o Ward and Jacobs at RB leaving Droughns who hasn't looked great in awhile. Plax has disappeared the past 4 games and to his actions are telling me his ankle is slowly getting worse if anything. Last 4 games he has no TDS and that's the way to beat Minny by throwing deep. NYG also lost Kiwaunka last week....

Texans +3.5

Now that HOUSTON is healthy offensively they to me are the equivalent of CLE. However I see a Browns team off 3 straight WARS and a defense continually losing bodies. They had the comeback versus Seattle in OT , the battle @ Pitt , followed by one of the luckiest wins in NFL history last week @ Balt. When Houston has had a healthy AJ and Schaub they have looked good. Just think this is the perfect situation where the lucky breaks catch up to them as the should have lost in STL a month ago as well.


The other games I don't see how we can look at Cincy or New Orleans. Tenny might have haynesworth back and he really seems to be the key to the defense. Cincy has banged WRs in CJ , Housmanzadeh and G.Holt. That's not a good sign. Tenny is definitely the better team if you focus on the fact that Cincy has just 3 wins vs Balt twice and NYJ and were smoked by Arizona !!! With the Saints Reggie Bush isn't looked so good health wise. The fact that Testaverde is probably OUT doesn't help BUT CAROLINA won in NO with Carr and Moore already. Some how the Panthers offense actually showed some life last week. The defense hasn't been that bad and if the offense would just protect the ball it would help the Panther defense out. Which by the way Caroina still looking for HOME WIN #1 and this looks like a great spot...so lean CAR and even Ten slightly



Later ....

49ers +10.5

The Niner offense is a concern but I think Dilfer is progressing and they almost pulled one out last week. Who is Zona to lay 10 points to anyone?? Sure if they limit SF to 10 or less points they can cover but I think SF could suprise. Some of which is due to Warner's propensity to fumble and make negative plays.

Last 7 meetings Zona 4-3 with 3 FG losses so usually competitive games.

Ravens @ SD

Tough game because BALT could show up flat here and if there defense isnt up to par then it could be ugly. We know Balt lost Pryce again and there CB situation is question mark. Heap and Williams appear OUT again. I think Boller gives them a much better chance of competing but he is mistake prone.

SD defense will make it hard on McGahee and leave it to Boller. Huge game for SD


Bears -1

Right now I cant be excited about Den play past 2 weeks. It has been better but I dont think they are better then Chi. The Bears I thought played well in Sea considering it was there second trip out there in as many weeks. Grossman playing decent and that could be a plus....like fading DEN off a MNF win especially when they allowed 28 1st downs and 400+ yards.......