Update on the NFL:
Top 2 values I see :
Dallas +5.5
Cheifs +3
-Think Dallas ML is a sound value play and you can probably buy it to 6 points at most places.
-With KC would pay the grossly high vig to make it +3.5 instead of the ML.
1 PM :
Jaguars -6.5 : Two teams who appear headed in opposite directions. Jags started slow and have improved every week while I feel Houston is taking baby steps backwards. Still no Andre Johnson and while Ahman Green returns its been real tough to run against Jax. Garrard still gets no credit and has been solid to date. Some injuries to take note of on both sides. Think Jags team OVER could be a nice value...
Dolphins +4.5 : Browns offense has played well but still prone to costly turnovers. Miami is a desperate team who has 3 losses by 3 pts to date. There defense is getting healthier and Jamal Lewis is OUT. Cleo Lemon was fine @ Indy last year and expect a week of practice to a big huge benefit to the offense. Miami will probably allow 21 + pts here and that really makes the only total play and over in my opinion after much review. Think 24-21 game worst case scenario...
Vikings +5 : In 2006 these teams went head to head with the Vikings really beating themselves both times. I expect FGs here...19-16 or 16-13 game....thought the total should be 35. So value play on the UND 37 but sometimes I prefer the 1st H under . Gonna wait on a weather report for that decision.
Ravens -9 : McNair is a gametime decision but it really doesnt change my play. The Rams offensively are decimated bewteen the OL , QB , RB and WR injuries. The ravens defense just has to play 4 quarters. You can talk about BALTs offense but @ SF they are facing a very sound defense minus there TEs. Still no excuse but not the same situation. The Rams do not have an offensive TD on the road and Dante Hall will not be around to give them good field position or like @ Dallas 7 points. Tough task with Frerotte even hobbled some and mistake prone ( 3 INT'S) to feel confident that STL could score 14 points here..Only the 49ers poor offense failed to score 24 on STL who has gotten its starting corners back but is no minus Chavous at safety. Both teams have WR 's banged up and less then 100%....short fields scare me off turnovers but UND 37 might have some value...
Under 38 TB ( and TB -2.5 or ML): I dont like what Tenny has done recently but I am not crazy about the spread . I would have preferred to see PK or TB -1.5. As bad as ATL played last week the Titans had to hang on. Tenny was lucky to beat jax earlier and we know about the Saints now. The Indy game they scored when they were behind...a huge premium on points here...TB 17-13...
{Philly buy to -3 and UND 43} : These would be leans. You have to realize niether offense outside of 1 game for each has done much. Jets only scored 10 on offense vs da Giants...Philly is healthy here unlike the Giant game a few weeks back and yes they are 8-0 after the bye week. I expect an ugly game say 24-17...
GB Under 41 , 1st H under 20.5 , GB -2.5 -120 : First I think Wash is improved but look at there opponents. Det was how bad @ Philly and @ Wash ?? OT at home with Miami. Decent win @ Philly but the Eagles are struggling. Its gonna be tough for them to win on the road and you dont know how healthy Moss or Randle El are. Both defenses should be solid but I dont see WASH being as strong as the Bears are which the line tends to imply. The Skins were ONLY -4 at home to DET...Some issues on both sides with OL as well....
If I had to I would say expect a fairly low scoring game @ KC. Anything UNDER 43 or better loosk solid. I say this cause KC will concemtrate on the ground game and even if they win SU I would expect 23-20...
4 PM :
Ari -4 and Und 40 :
This is on the belief Carr will NOT play tmrw. Testaverde walking in off the streets with1 playmaker. It could be interesting to see Vinnys strong arm trying to connect with Steve Smith but you would think Ari blankets him. Panthers decent defense against Warner should keep the ARI offense in check. They had 3 gift scores @ STL IMO and really have been scoring about 20 per otherwise. The gifts were the James fumble forward for the TD , the penalty before half to give Warner a TD on the keeper and the pick 6. We know what the coaching staff wants to do in Arizona.
To some degeree both DAL and NE defenses are overrated especially when facing the respective offenses...think OVER here...
SD-9.5 : I am not crazy about seeing OAK try to run it with Fargas and Rhodes versus SD . This is NOT the Miami Dolphins minus Zach Thomas. We have to say if Culpepper can make plays in the passing game on a consistent basis before I call OAK anything. I loved how Rivers leaned on Gates in the passing game . You wonder when that light bulb moment happened. Anyway I see SD 27-14 here....but just like the Philly game one that I wouldnt run to play...
SNF :
Over 42 Seattle : Way to low for this game. The Saints defense isnt much to speak of and we know about Seattle in primetime specifically Shaun Alexander. Throw in the fact they are off a shutout. What scares me is Saints struggling offense versus a solid Seattle defense. For a side the Saints might be worth a shot but again not what I would be looking to play...27-21 game......
Team Totals :
Under Houston 14.5
Over Jags 21.5
Under Rams 14
Over Ravens 22.5
Over Eagles 23
Over Dallas 23.5
Under Bears 21.5
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Friday, October 12, 2007
Thanks touc , nice to hear from you. Feel free to email me or comment me anytime bro.
Friday Nite
Missed the Boston game preferred Boston and played the Over 8 . Just didnt have time to post since I walked in 15 minutes before 1st pitch. Not sure about the second game at all yet.
Under 68 Hawaii / SJST
There has been some solid movement taking this from 19 to 16.5 so I am staying away from a side. I dont think SJST has much offense and anyone talking about Hawaii's schedule should realize who the Spartans just played..Idaho and Utah State while barely winning( okay Idaho made it close late ).
Supposedly been alot of bad weather in SJ last nite and today on what is probably not a great facility. Looking at Hawaii on the mainland the offense hasnt clicked as well and they have had penalties and / or turnovers. As long as SJST doesnt give them great field position like Idaho did or easy points like UNLV did then I think we see about Hawaii 38 - 24 SJST or 35-21 . Not overthinking this and honestly the field conditions and game conditions would have alot to do with who I sided versus the spread and since I cant see them then I cant make an accurate comment on what I like ATS. Also Hawaii has been known to coast and may do so with Brennan in bad field conditions dealing with an injury.
Friday Nite
Missed the Boston game preferred Boston and played the Over 8 . Just didnt have time to post since I walked in 15 minutes before 1st pitch. Not sure about the second game at all yet.
Under 68 Hawaii / SJST
There has been some solid movement taking this from 19 to 16.5 so I am staying away from a side. I dont think SJST has much offense and anyone talking about Hawaii's schedule should realize who the Spartans just played..Idaho and Utah State while barely winning( okay Idaho made it close late ).
Supposedly been alot of bad weather in SJ last nite and today on what is probably not a great facility. Looking at Hawaii on the mainland the offense hasnt clicked as well and they have had penalties and / or turnovers. As long as SJST doesnt give them great field position like Idaho did or easy points like UNLV did then I think we see about Hawaii 38 - 24 SJST or 35-21 . Not overthinking this and honestly the field conditions and game conditions would have alot to do with who I sided versus the spread and since I cant see them then I cant make an accurate comment on what I like ATS. Also Hawaii has been known to coast and may do so with Brennan in bad field conditions dealing with an injury.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Somewhat disappointed in myself cause I had a great read on yesterdays game and simply didnt go with it. Looking at Navy's pourous pass defense I knew Pitt would be able to score and my Pitts comments you knew they werent very confident in shutting down Navys attack. When your head coach says you need at least 28 to win thats an eye opener. Then seeing how Navy could not be stopped on offense I felt +2.5 and Over 28.5 were great plays. teams do make adjustments at half but they werent even close to stopping eachother in the 1st H. Anyway thats old news.
Tonite is a ral tough matchup. First I think Wake Forest is a fraud. I understand they have played better with Riley Skinner at QB but have they really. Look at the BC game they had 2 defensive TDS early. Still they trailed 35-21 to start the 4th quarter. Maryland had the game all but won. Except Steffy gets INT in the end zone and a 24-3 game in 3rd quarter would have been 27 -3 or 31-3. What happens is a 100 yd IN return to get the Terps back in and the collapse is on. Where was Wake till that point ?? Then last week vs Duke I dont know what to make of that game. I had Duke but Wake benefited from great field position all day. Duke's D isnt exactly known for stopping anyone and handcuffed with great field position to defend I can see why they allowed 34 points( 7 on a pick 6 as well). I dont see much fro the DD offense and really think there defense is sort of Cincy Bengal like. They like to gamble which leads to TO's for points but also to high ppg allowed.
FSU is improving but they are also getting the right opponents. One's that are almost equally offensive challenged. Colorado , Bama , NCST. The thing I see from the NCST game was some missed FGs and real bad starting field position in the 2nd H held the Seminole offense in check more then anything else. Still a work in progress with no running game vs a solid run defense. This game is all about Riley Skinner vs Xavier Lee.
What I am haing trouble with is being able to put a number on this game. Meaning I cant seem to figure out what I think the spread should be. I think the offenses relying solely on the passing game can keep this game low scoring if both defenses come to play from the opening snap.
Basically take my comments at this time with a grain of salt cause not much is clear to me here. I am guessing FSU wins by 7-10 points and they settle for a few FGs. Something 23-13 type game...anywahere in the 36-41 pt range.....EDUCATED GUESS...ONLY! Also I dont think Wake has a huge home field edge...
Crazy Pressure on the line down to -4 before I seen -4.5 so passed. Did play 1st Half Under 22
MLB : NLCS Rockies @ Dbacks
Long rest makes me wonder if the OVER is an attractive play. However the long layoff for the hitters is just as concerning especially faced with such quality SP. Also the Colorado rockie momentum is probably gone by now. It carried into Philly after the SD playoff win but the time out does kill that IMO.
Personally I think you have to go with Webb here. He is the better SP despite Francis success against Arizona and Webb's somewhat inconsistency vs COL. Remember this is the Colorado Rockies a 500 road team which is a major improvement for them over previous seasons(only 262 BAA away). Some things about stats. First Webb was excellent in night starts while Francis was very medicore with a near 5 ERA(4.92). I consider a 6 PM start a nice game ( local time) No one expected anything from Francis at Philly but he was in a great situational spot with a day start . Now his success against Arizona is a thing of the past. He started once late in the year vs Arizona and lost to Webb at home. Now Webb pitched vs Col twice in Sept. The 1st time he struggled in the 1st inning allowing 3 runs on his way to a 4-3 loss. However he allowed just 5 hits in 7 innings that day. Far from a bad start. He allowed 3 runs and 3 hits in the 1st inning but just 2 hits one of which was a solo blast in the next 6 innings. Then followed it up with 2 runs in 7 innings at Coors. Much of what happened for these respective SP was in April and May a very long time ago. I think we may again see a 4-2 game here..with anything under -140 being cheap IMO.....
Note: Zona 15-9 at home vs LHP and 14-6 L20 @ Home vs LHP....
Play : ARIZONA -125 (lean und 7.5)
Tonite is a ral tough matchup. First I think Wake Forest is a fraud. I understand they have played better with Riley Skinner at QB but have they really. Look at the BC game they had 2 defensive TDS early. Still they trailed 35-21 to start the 4th quarter. Maryland had the game all but won. Except Steffy gets INT in the end zone and a 24-3 game in 3rd quarter would have been 27 -3 or 31-3. What happens is a 100 yd IN return to get the Terps back in and the collapse is on. Where was Wake till that point ?? Then last week vs Duke I dont know what to make of that game. I had Duke but Wake benefited from great field position all day. Duke's D isnt exactly known for stopping anyone and handcuffed with great field position to defend I can see why they allowed 34 points( 7 on a pick 6 as well). I dont see much fro the DD offense and really think there defense is sort of Cincy Bengal like. They like to gamble which leads to TO's for points but also to high ppg allowed.
FSU is improving but they are also getting the right opponents. One's that are almost equally offensive challenged. Colorado , Bama , NCST. The thing I see from the NCST game was some missed FGs and real bad starting field position in the 2nd H held the Seminole offense in check more then anything else. Still a work in progress with no running game vs a solid run defense. This game is all about Riley Skinner vs Xavier Lee.
What I am haing trouble with is being able to put a number on this game. Meaning I cant seem to figure out what I think the spread should be. I think the offenses relying solely on the passing game can keep this game low scoring if both defenses come to play from the opening snap.
Basically take my comments at this time with a grain of salt cause not much is clear to me here. I am guessing FSU wins by 7-10 points and they settle for a few FGs. Something 23-13 type game...anywahere in the 36-41 pt range.....EDUCATED GUESS...ONLY! Also I dont think Wake has a huge home field edge...
Crazy Pressure on the line down to -4 before I seen -4.5 so passed. Did play 1st Half Under 22
MLB : NLCS Rockies @ Dbacks
Long rest makes me wonder if the OVER is an attractive play. However the long layoff for the hitters is just as concerning especially faced with such quality SP. Also the Colorado rockie momentum is probably gone by now. It carried into Philly after the SD playoff win but the time out does kill that IMO.
Personally I think you have to go with Webb here. He is the better SP despite Francis success against Arizona and Webb's somewhat inconsistency vs COL. Remember this is the Colorado Rockies a 500 road team which is a major improvement for them over previous seasons(only 262 BAA away). Some things about stats. First Webb was excellent in night starts while Francis was very medicore with a near 5 ERA(4.92). I consider a 6 PM start a nice game ( local time) No one expected anything from Francis at Philly but he was in a great situational spot with a day start . Now his success against Arizona is a thing of the past. He started once late in the year vs Arizona and lost to Webb at home. Now Webb pitched vs Col twice in Sept. The 1st time he struggled in the 1st inning allowing 3 runs on his way to a 4-3 loss. However he allowed just 5 hits in 7 innings that day. Far from a bad start. He allowed 3 runs and 3 hits in the 1st inning but just 2 hits one of which was a solo blast in the next 6 innings. Then followed it up with 2 runs in 7 innings at Coors. Much of what happened for these respective SP was in April and May a very long time ago. I think we may again see a 4-2 game here..with anything under -140 being cheap IMO.....
Note: Zona 15-9 at home vs LHP and 14-6 L20 @ Home vs LHP....
Play : ARIZONA -125 (lean und 7.5)
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Week 6 NFL
PLAYS :
This weeks top two In my opinion :
Dallas Cowboys +5 and +210ML
Cheifs +3.5 -130 and +130 or better ML
Packers -2.5 -125 and UND 41
Jaguars -6.5
Miami +5
Ravens -9.5 (strong lean)
TB -2.5 (lean)
Comments:
Dallas +4.5 (and ML)
If you read my ramble then the Monday Nite game went down exactly as planned. No , I did not foresee Romo throwing so many picks or Buffalo having 3 non offensive TDS. However I did know the line was way too high , I did understand that situational it was a rough spot for Dallas playing 3rd away in 4 weeks a long way from home veresus a team getting its 1st MNF game in 14 years , I did know that Buffalo held a huge advantage in Special teams. They dont play the games on paper and you have to look and see what will change performances positive or negative.
Let me say this Sportsbooks dont create traps the human mind does. Books dont adjust lines very quickly and people think cause of 1 or 2 games lines look shady. When the yanks play poorly dont they still lay -200?? So keep that in the back of your mind. There is a method to there madness and unless they are getting killed by being OFF on a particular teams value the adjustments tend to be gradual.
I promise you this Dallas will look nothing like that on Sunday . They pressured Romo some and he just played poorly. This is not a road game and you would hope his comfort level increases at home even against NE. The difference here is you look at Buffalo across the field and you know you are the better team. Whether you mean to or not you you letdown IMO. Look Dallas played like shit and still managed to win. Take something from that.
There is no way that NE should go into Dallas laying 4.5 pts..no way. What happened last year when undefeated INDY went to DAL as a PK?? Has anyone given the DAL defense any props?? They have improved alot since the opener.
I dont see why this game is anything other then a PK'em except good ole public MISperception. My how things have changed...week 2 NE is only -3.5 at home vs SD but now is -4.5 @ Dallas.....I can assure you DAL is better then SD and that NE probably hasnt improved any the past few weeks even with Rodney Harrision's return. Read my ramble about NE being overrated in yesterdays game comments as well. I think Cle did a much better job on offense against the NE defense then Buffalo did at home vs Dallas. I wont even get into Xs and Os cause the line is bad and I try to bust inflated lines.....
DALLAS +4.5 & ML
Other week 6 Thoughts:
Bengals travel to Kansas City :
Right now the Bengals have a crisis at LB. They lost Lemar Marshall in there last game. Landon Johnson who left early has returned to practice and should play. However is Dhani Jones , Anthony Schlegel and Landon Johnson anything to get excited about?? We will have to wait and see what happens with Caleb Miller , Richard Jenty and Ahmad Brooks. We know now Jenty wont return and the other two are gametime decisions who havent praticed this week so looking unlikely. Larry Johnson ! While they are not exactly superstars but at least they arent guys coming off the streets either. So right now help doesnt appear on the way. The Bengals have not been able to stop the run due to the LB situation just ask Jamal Lewis. You have to think Larry Johnson off a 9 carry 12 yard performance is looking for an opportunity to make that a distant memory. The man has pride and an ego. We now know that Huard will start. You have to like what yo have seen from Dwayne Bowe. Since the loss to the Bengals last year the Cheifs are 7-2 at home losing to only Balt and now Jax. See something in common ?? Sick defenses maybe. Actually while we all agree KC offense isnt much to speak of look at there opponents. Week 1 you have to almost throw out cause Huard and LJ barely played in preseason. Since then @Chi , Minny , @ Sd , Jax...thats pretty damn tough and Cincy is nowhere near those teams. KC biggest problem on offense seems to be there OL. Which hopefully fares better versus a more manageable defense. Cincy is not for an OCT team . To me this is still the same KC team as last year that made the playoffs minus Roaf but with Bowe and Edwards. The Bengals are a watered down version that everyone expects to play better. I cant see why they will......
Cincy has to wonder about Willie Anderson ( now OUT I believe) and Rudi Johnson still. Though Kenny Watson is fine in my eyes. The problem with them lies in my rant yesterday. They lost Chris Henry to suspension and dont have any WR options after the TJ / CJ duo(67 of 101 receptions). They do not have a pass catching TE . Which means you have two options in the passing game or a check down to Watson....hard to move the ball like that even with studs. KC defense has played very well and Jax used to big plays to get there TDs. Now comes word CB Jonathan Joseph is OUT for the game because of a team policy drug violation. Marvin Lewis is right these guys dont have football as #1 on there mind . ( Though it was an offseason incident I believe)
Last year in the Opener the Bengals won 23-10 @ Arrowhead. However hard to weigh that game as KC loses there star QB in that game with the concussion that caused an 11 minute delay. At this point why lay points with Cincy on the road ??? As of now I see the value in the Cheifs and maybe UNDER 42.
Play: KC @ +3.5 and ML
Hou @ Jacksonville :
You have to respect Houston past history versus Jax going 8-2 ATS past 10 meetings and the Jaguars failure as a favorite in recent opportunities. I just think the teams are headed in different directions. The Jags lost there opener and have rebounded the past few weeks to the point where there defense is gonna make it tough to get any yards on the ground or points on the board. While Houston has some capable options in the passing game I really dont see any playmakers ( Andre Johnson is OUT). I simply question how many points they will score..thinking 14 while I fully believe that Jax get into the low 20's. Drew is starting to come around again and be that home run threat( Taylor looks to be a gametime decision). They owe there win vs a bad Miami team to Kris Brown plain and simple. I mean 3 FGS of 54 ++ yards is ridiculous. Great job though! You cant expect that every week. Previous to that Houston lost @ Atl and let Harrington have a very nice day. The home game versus Indy is misleading cause Jerome Mathis who is a beast took the opening kick to the house. He didnt even last the whole game and is now on IR. The guy is great but ALWAYS injured. When Indy failed to put Hou away 31-10 late ( real score was 27-10) the Texans found some life on offense. Jax -6.5 at the moment. Garrad is flying under the radar. DeMarco Ryans at LB is a gametime decison( huge loss IMO) and Naeole is for Jax on the OL. You have to wonder about Travis Johnson after last week as well....
Miami @ Cleveland:
Sure Cle has played better to date but they havent exactly been favored in any of these games either. So a different role which is a very different approach for them and anyone looking to back them. Now you have expectations to deal with. Cleo Lemon should be better this week after getting his feet wet and John Beck has potential if called upon. The Browns have struggled versus the run and here comes the HUMMER Ronnie Brown. Jamal Lewis has been largely ineffective except versus Cincy and only lasted 1 carry last week. He is a gametime decision. Miami has struggled to stop the run and defended the pass much better. It has 3 key players on defense that could be available Darius , Holliday ( OUT) and Crowder. So if Jason Wright is the starter or a less then 100% Jamal Lewis you may struggle to attack the Dolphins defensive flaw. Tough spot playing 3rd of 4 away but this team has 3 losses on the road by 3 pts..2 on late FG'S. Anderson has thrown 8 picks in 4.5 games of football which is an issue despite his superb play IMO. I think both defenses are improving. Cle did a good job in NE. Basically you have to look at the UNDER here IMO but look for reason to play it as this is a tricky matchup cause CLE has scored at home so Miami will need to score to cover / win ......and Miami as a role fade.....Not to forget was Cleo Lemon start @ Indy in the finale last year in a meaningful game . He looked pretty good that day to me....
Minny @ Chicago :
What I see here is you have a dome team outdoors ( scary), a returning QB who is turnover prone and doesnt garner my respect yet , and a Bears team off a nice win( as a dog remember) that really took every break possible in the 2nd Half to doso( and I had CHI). The Bears have NOT righted the ship just yet. They simply applied the pressure and watched GB self destruct. You have to weigh that Minny gave the Bears hell last year and right now CHI isnt as good as last year. The Bears needed a late turnover to win at Minny and while winning 23-13 at home they had a Hester punt return for a TD , a INT returned for a TD and a safety. What I am saying is the offense didnt do very much in 2 games. While the offense did some good things vs GB it took some perfect throws from Griese and nice grabs from Olson & Clark to accomplish that. I did not like how the Bear OL played at all( Tait and Brown gametime decisions now). It will be a huge task for Chi to run on Minny. If the OL doesnt protect better Griese again will rushed and his arm strength is lacking. This shapes up alot like when KC traveled to Chi and they gave the Bears all they could handle. A missed 47 yd FG ( Longwell is a better kicker then Rayner) and fumble late inside the opposing 25 were the difference(they lost by 10). Kinda think we should have seen -4 here.....leaning towards Minny +5.5, Und 37.5 or 1st H under....this will be a defensive battle IMO...have to look more at Minnys special teams play this year. Injuries still bugging da bears here...
Phi@ NYJ
With the Eagle injuries I think its best to look at this one later in the week. However Philly has played excellent defense at GB and @ NYG. This is certainly a plus when facing a Jet team that is probably not as offensively talented as rhe two of those opponents. Statement game for both teams . If Philly is healthy I have to think they win this though....NY has done nothing but show they dont know how to win. They blew the Miami lead and hung on , couldnt beat Buffalo who is offensively challenged at the moment and couldnt hold a 10 pt lead at home to the rival Giants because Pennington for as many good plays as he makes always seems to throw a duck at the wrong time. To many Jet issues IMO....Westbrook , Smith , and Sheppard ( now doubtful) ready to play , Thomas is a gametime decision. This line is getting up there now at 3.5/4 though...hard to not like philly but this line is getting ahead of itself for a team that still hasnt righted themselves. If it stays @ -4 maybe there is some value....Truts me I know Philly is 8-0 after a BYE and so does every person making these lines....
StLouis @ Balt :
The Ravens have shown that they can still play defense. That means the Rams makeshift OL , backup running back and QB will be in for a long day IMO. Its so tough to run on Balt at home and you have to do so with a banged up OL and rookie RB. Frerotte had 3 INTs at home!!! The rams have not scored an offensive TD in 2 games on the road vs Dallas and TB two other strong defenses. Dante Hall the man with there score is OUT . Bruce , Looker and Hall are OUT @ WR. As many points as this seems its not enough....Rams wont crack 10 points....and could make a few mistakes that give short fields and easy points to Balt who have broken twenty points ++ in both at home. Unfortunately the Ravens have been weak late in the game cause they led 20-3 and 17-3 at home by half. Really like Balt by 2 TDS here...as the Rams wont stop the run opening up the offense some especially with injuries at safety and CB returning...the Rams being 3.5 at home where effectively 10.5 dogs at Zona.....!!! Balt is better then Zona....arent they..?? This probably would be closer to -13 if Balt played better on the road.....they didnt so you get a soft line..looking for 24-10....BALT -9.5 but naturally so many points leaves one cautious with Mcnair questionable but likely to play. Boller is okay except for those untimely turnovers if he replaces. Rams getting some help now at CB with there starters returning but Chavous still out at Safety. Remember that SF has a good defense and Balt OL lost a few players in Flynn and Terry who replaced by youngsters who seized the moment as SF had NO sacks. Also Heap and Wilcox two important cogs of the offense @ TE didnt play severely hurting there red zone offense IMO. Just seeing how the offense played @ TB and @ Dallas I cannot expect alot of points here from STL..20 from Balt should do the trick......
Tenny @ TB :
Looks like the battle of the inept offenses. Before you go running to back VY and the Titans just look how awful he played and that was home last week. I did expect more of a PK line which makes me cautious about TB. TB wasnt going to run the ball IMO vs Tenny anyway( Graham has been fine though). I think there will be a premium on points here...the difference is Tenny is more prone to beat themselves. 3TDs and 5 INTs for VY and a whopping 146 yds passing per game. Now Brandon Jones looks doubtful and he is one of there better WRs. The running game is in trouble as Fisher lost faith in LenDale White after the fumble and Chris Brown did ZILCH!!! While the -3 bothers me looking at the past few weeks TB has garnered a tremendous amount of respect from the linesmakers. Out of nowehere seemingly they laid -3.5 to StL , they were only +3 @ Carolina, and +10 @ Indy...remember Denver was +10 the previous week. Looking back outside of NO the Titans were lucky to beat ATL and Jax they could be 1-3 easily right now. Garcia still hasnt thrown a pick either. After last weeks performance if TB doesnt give them any short fields I am not sure Ten cracks 14 pts....hoping to see this line come down ....
Wash @ GB :
At first glance I did lean towards Wash. Think the line is a bit soft cause of week 5. Skins blowut a bad team and GB gives one away. Wash could be really banged up and shorthanded here. Randle El , Washington and Daniels all appear OUT and are noteasily replaced. GB had 12 penalities and I think 5 turnovers and still barely lost. You have to be more impressed with GB strength of schedule more then anything else WASH has done....marquee win da EAGLES? This has 17-13 or 20-14 written all over it IMO GB and the UNDER 41...
Still researching the 4 PM games and SUNDAY , MONDAY niters....
PLAYS :
This weeks top two In my opinion :
Dallas Cowboys +5 and +210ML
Cheifs +3.5 -130 and +130 or better ML
Packers -2.5 -125 and UND 41
Jaguars -6.5
Miami +5
Ravens -9.5 (strong lean)
TB -2.5 (lean)
Comments:
Dallas +4.5 (and ML)
If you read my ramble then the Monday Nite game went down exactly as planned. No , I did not foresee Romo throwing so many picks or Buffalo having 3 non offensive TDS. However I did know the line was way too high , I did understand that situational it was a rough spot for Dallas playing 3rd away in 4 weeks a long way from home veresus a team getting its 1st MNF game in 14 years , I did know that Buffalo held a huge advantage in Special teams. They dont play the games on paper and you have to look and see what will change performances positive or negative.
Let me say this Sportsbooks dont create traps the human mind does. Books dont adjust lines very quickly and people think cause of 1 or 2 games lines look shady. When the yanks play poorly dont they still lay -200?? So keep that in the back of your mind. There is a method to there madness and unless they are getting killed by being OFF on a particular teams value the adjustments tend to be gradual.
I promise you this Dallas will look nothing like that on Sunday . They pressured Romo some and he just played poorly. This is not a road game and you would hope his comfort level increases at home even against NE. The difference here is you look at Buffalo across the field and you know you are the better team. Whether you mean to or not you you letdown IMO. Look Dallas played like shit and still managed to win. Take something from that.
There is no way that NE should go into Dallas laying 4.5 pts..no way. What happened last year when undefeated INDY went to DAL as a PK?? Has anyone given the DAL defense any props?? They have improved alot since the opener.
I dont see why this game is anything other then a PK'em except good ole public MISperception. My how things have changed...week 2 NE is only -3.5 at home vs SD but now is -4.5 @ Dallas.....I can assure you DAL is better then SD and that NE probably hasnt improved any the past few weeks even with Rodney Harrision's return. Read my ramble about NE being overrated in yesterdays game comments as well. I think Cle did a much better job on offense against the NE defense then Buffalo did at home vs Dallas. I wont even get into Xs and Os cause the line is bad and I try to bust inflated lines.....
DALLAS +4.5 & ML
Other week 6 Thoughts:
Bengals travel to Kansas City :
Right now the Bengals have a crisis at LB. They lost Lemar Marshall in there last game. Landon Johnson who left early has returned to practice and should play. However is Dhani Jones , Anthony Schlegel and Landon Johnson anything to get excited about?? We will have to wait and see what happens with Caleb Miller , Richard Jenty and Ahmad Brooks. We know now Jenty wont return and the other two are gametime decisions who havent praticed this week so looking unlikely. Larry Johnson ! While they are not exactly superstars but at least they arent guys coming off the streets either. So right now help doesnt appear on the way. The Bengals have not been able to stop the run due to the LB situation just ask Jamal Lewis. You have to think Larry Johnson off a 9 carry 12 yard performance is looking for an opportunity to make that a distant memory. The man has pride and an ego. We now know that Huard will start. You have to like what yo have seen from Dwayne Bowe. Since the loss to the Bengals last year the Cheifs are 7-2 at home losing to only Balt and now Jax. See something in common ?? Sick defenses maybe. Actually while we all agree KC offense isnt much to speak of look at there opponents. Week 1 you have to almost throw out cause Huard and LJ barely played in preseason. Since then @Chi , Minny , @ Sd , Jax...thats pretty damn tough and Cincy is nowhere near those teams. KC biggest problem on offense seems to be there OL. Which hopefully fares better versus a more manageable defense. Cincy is not for an OCT team . To me this is still the same KC team as last year that made the playoffs minus Roaf but with Bowe and Edwards. The Bengals are a watered down version that everyone expects to play better. I cant see why they will......
Cincy has to wonder about Willie Anderson ( now OUT I believe) and Rudi Johnson still. Though Kenny Watson is fine in my eyes. The problem with them lies in my rant yesterday. They lost Chris Henry to suspension and dont have any WR options after the TJ / CJ duo(67 of 101 receptions). They do not have a pass catching TE . Which means you have two options in the passing game or a check down to Watson....hard to move the ball like that even with studs. KC defense has played very well and Jax used to big plays to get there TDs. Now comes word CB Jonathan Joseph is OUT for the game because of a team policy drug violation. Marvin Lewis is right these guys dont have football as #1 on there mind . ( Though it was an offseason incident I believe)
Last year in the Opener the Bengals won 23-10 @ Arrowhead. However hard to weigh that game as KC loses there star QB in that game with the concussion that caused an 11 minute delay. At this point why lay points with Cincy on the road ??? As of now I see the value in the Cheifs and maybe UNDER 42.
Play: KC @ +3.5 and ML
Hou @ Jacksonville :
You have to respect Houston past history versus Jax going 8-2 ATS past 10 meetings and the Jaguars failure as a favorite in recent opportunities. I just think the teams are headed in different directions. The Jags lost there opener and have rebounded the past few weeks to the point where there defense is gonna make it tough to get any yards on the ground or points on the board. While Houston has some capable options in the passing game I really dont see any playmakers ( Andre Johnson is OUT). I simply question how many points they will score..thinking 14 while I fully believe that Jax get into the low 20's. Drew is starting to come around again and be that home run threat( Taylor looks to be a gametime decision). They owe there win vs a bad Miami team to Kris Brown plain and simple. I mean 3 FGS of 54 ++ yards is ridiculous. Great job though! You cant expect that every week. Previous to that Houston lost @ Atl and let Harrington have a very nice day. The home game versus Indy is misleading cause Jerome Mathis who is a beast took the opening kick to the house. He didnt even last the whole game and is now on IR. The guy is great but ALWAYS injured. When Indy failed to put Hou away 31-10 late ( real score was 27-10) the Texans found some life on offense. Jax -6.5 at the moment. Garrad is flying under the radar. DeMarco Ryans at LB is a gametime decison( huge loss IMO) and Naeole is for Jax on the OL. You have to wonder about Travis Johnson after last week as well....
Miami @ Cleveland:
Sure Cle has played better to date but they havent exactly been favored in any of these games either. So a different role which is a very different approach for them and anyone looking to back them. Now you have expectations to deal with. Cleo Lemon should be better this week after getting his feet wet and John Beck has potential if called upon. The Browns have struggled versus the run and here comes the HUMMER Ronnie Brown. Jamal Lewis has been largely ineffective except versus Cincy and only lasted 1 carry last week. He is a gametime decision. Miami has struggled to stop the run and defended the pass much better. It has 3 key players on defense that could be available Darius , Holliday ( OUT) and Crowder. So if Jason Wright is the starter or a less then 100% Jamal Lewis you may struggle to attack the Dolphins defensive flaw. Tough spot playing 3rd of 4 away but this team has 3 losses on the road by 3 pts..2 on late FG'S. Anderson has thrown 8 picks in 4.5 games of football which is an issue despite his superb play IMO. I think both defenses are improving. Cle did a good job in NE. Basically you have to look at the UNDER here IMO but look for reason to play it as this is a tricky matchup cause CLE has scored at home so Miami will need to score to cover / win ......and Miami as a role fade.....Not to forget was Cleo Lemon start @ Indy in the finale last year in a meaningful game . He looked pretty good that day to me....
Minny @ Chicago :
What I see here is you have a dome team outdoors ( scary), a returning QB who is turnover prone and doesnt garner my respect yet , and a Bears team off a nice win( as a dog remember) that really took every break possible in the 2nd Half to doso( and I had CHI). The Bears have NOT righted the ship just yet. They simply applied the pressure and watched GB self destruct. You have to weigh that Minny gave the Bears hell last year and right now CHI isnt as good as last year. The Bears needed a late turnover to win at Minny and while winning 23-13 at home they had a Hester punt return for a TD , a INT returned for a TD and a safety. What I am saying is the offense didnt do very much in 2 games. While the offense did some good things vs GB it took some perfect throws from Griese and nice grabs from Olson & Clark to accomplish that. I did not like how the Bear OL played at all( Tait and Brown gametime decisions now). It will be a huge task for Chi to run on Minny. If the OL doesnt protect better Griese again will rushed and his arm strength is lacking. This shapes up alot like when KC traveled to Chi and they gave the Bears all they could handle. A missed 47 yd FG ( Longwell is a better kicker then Rayner) and fumble late inside the opposing 25 were the difference(they lost by 10). Kinda think we should have seen -4 here.....leaning towards Minny +5.5, Und 37.5 or 1st H under....this will be a defensive battle IMO...have to look more at Minnys special teams play this year. Injuries still bugging da bears here...
Phi@ NYJ
With the Eagle injuries I think its best to look at this one later in the week. However Philly has played excellent defense at GB and @ NYG. This is certainly a plus when facing a Jet team that is probably not as offensively talented as rhe two of those opponents. Statement game for both teams . If Philly is healthy I have to think they win this though....NY has done nothing but show they dont know how to win. They blew the Miami lead and hung on , couldnt beat Buffalo who is offensively challenged at the moment and couldnt hold a 10 pt lead at home to the rival Giants because Pennington for as many good plays as he makes always seems to throw a duck at the wrong time. To many Jet issues IMO....Westbrook , Smith , and Sheppard ( now doubtful) ready to play , Thomas is a gametime decision. This line is getting up there now at 3.5/4 though...hard to not like philly but this line is getting ahead of itself for a team that still hasnt righted themselves. If it stays @ -4 maybe there is some value....Truts me I know Philly is 8-0 after a BYE and so does every person making these lines....
StLouis @ Balt :
The Ravens have shown that they can still play defense. That means the Rams makeshift OL , backup running back and QB will be in for a long day IMO. Its so tough to run on Balt at home and you have to do so with a banged up OL and rookie RB. Frerotte had 3 INTs at home!!! The rams have not scored an offensive TD in 2 games on the road vs Dallas and TB two other strong defenses. Dante Hall the man with there score is OUT . Bruce , Looker and Hall are OUT @ WR. As many points as this seems its not enough....Rams wont crack 10 points....and could make a few mistakes that give short fields and easy points to Balt who have broken twenty points ++ in both at home. Unfortunately the Ravens have been weak late in the game cause they led 20-3 and 17-3 at home by half. Really like Balt by 2 TDS here...as the Rams wont stop the run opening up the offense some especially with injuries at safety and CB returning...the Rams being 3.5 at home where effectively 10.5 dogs at Zona.....!!! Balt is better then Zona....arent they..?? This probably would be closer to -13 if Balt played better on the road.....they didnt so you get a soft line..looking for 24-10....BALT -9.5 but naturally so many points leaves one cautious with Mcnair questionable but likely to play. Boller is okay except for those untimely turnovers if he replaces. Rams getting some help now at CB with there starters returning but Chavous still out at Safety. Remember that SF has a good defense and Balt OL lost a few players in Flynn and Terry who replaced by youngsters who seized the moment as SF had NO sacks. Also Heap and Wilcox two important cogs of the offense @ TE didnt play severely hurting there red zone offense IMO. Just seeing how the offense played @ TB and @ Dallas I cannot expect alot of points here from STL..20 from Balt should do the trick......
Tenny @ TB :
Looks like the battle of the inept offenses. Before you go running to back VY and the Titans just look how awful he played and that was home last week. I did expect more of a PK line which makes me cautious about TB. TB wasnt going to run the ball IMO vs Tenny anyway( Graham has been fine though). I think there will be a premium on points here...the difference is Tenny is more prone to beat themselves. 3TDs and 5 INTs for VY and a whopping 146 yds passing per game. Now Brandon Jones looks doubtful and he is one of there better WRs. The running game is in trouble as Fisher lost faith in LenDale White after the fumble and Chris Brown did ZILCH!!! While the -3 bothers me looking at the past few weeks TB has garnered a tremendous amount of respect from the linesmakers. Out of nowehere seemingly they laid -3.5 to StL , they were only +3 @ Carolina, and +10 @ Indy...remember Denver was +10 the previous week. Looking back outside of NO the Titans were lucky to beat ATL and Jax they could be 1-3 easily right now. Garcia still hasnt thrown a pick either. After last weeks performance if TB doesnt give them any short fields I am not sure Ten cracks 14 pts....hoping to see this line come down ....
Wash @ GB :
At first glance I did lean towards Wash. Think the line is a bit soft cause of week 5. Skins blowut a bad team and GB gives one away. Wash could be really banged up and shorthanded here. Randle El , Washington and Daniels all appear OUT and are noteasily replaced. GB had 12 penalities and I think 5 turnovers and still barely lost. You have to be more impressed with GB strength of schedule more then anything else WASH has done....marquee win da EAGLES? This has 17-13 or 20-14 written all over it IMO GB and the UNDER 41...
Still researching the 4 PM games and SUNDAY , MONDAY niters....
Monday, October 08, 2007
Yesterday I had computer issues and couldnt really update my NFLthoughts and play card. On the only two posted plays I felt like I had two terribe beats. First in Tenn after much evalutaion I had flip flopped picks to the Titans simply believing ATL could not score enough. I was correct about that. All 13 pts were off turnovers ( and a fake punt) . However Tenny offense and VY were almost as bad and a late Bironas MISSED 45/46 yard FG sealed the deal. Didnt I say the Falcons ONLY chance here was a 4-7 loss and that was a SLIM hope?? That loss was my biggest side and killed a 4 team parlay ( Wash , Carolina and Zona ML). Then NYY which I had at +4 on the buy gives the game away with two HORRIBLE Pennington picks , the last a pick 6 that cost me the PUSH. Shit happens I ran the table basically after the 1 PM chaos. Had th eOver 43 Miami and that was FG city and Browns +17 pushes on a defensive score with 15 seconds to play....thats the NFL. What did I say yesterday...No two weeks are alike or Trent Dilfer said it. At least the YANKEES showed a pulse....make a value play IMO on the Yanks to win the World Series should be about 5 to 1 odds now..I have many reason why I will discuss that later on...
Buffalo Bills +10.5
One thing I am quite sure of the two most overrated teams in the NFL are the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys. The funny thing about the Patriots is after all this time they simple are hardly ever huge public plays. I felt the 16.5 line was fair yesterday but knew the move down to 15.5 meant trouble. Lets get into why I think this. How is NE overrated. First look at there opponents. We know now that the Jets are a mess . They cruised and why would anyone at this point not expect the PATS to be a well oiled machine. Come on now NE will not beat itself even with role players taking up for injured stars. We learned Randy Moss was back. The second game we learned that SD game 1 troubles versus CHI were no fluke. They impressively smoked SD but this is a team playing with a new head coach in his second game. Nice win but great spot for NE. The Bills bewteen defensive injuries and offensive issues showed @ Pitt and @ NE just how competitive they would be versus good defenses on the road. The Bengals...you cant win in the NFL when your entire linebacking core is decimated. Think they dressed 4 linebackers and two were gone by the end of quarter 1. Rudi Johnson loss was overrated cause I think Keny Watson is a wash basically. What people dont see beynd the two stud WRs is this team hasabsolutely nothing. They dont have a TE who can contribute in the passing game or a 3rd WR. So your playing one of the best OL and you have no linebackers?? Wasnt hard to think Cincy had to pick a poison...sell out to stop the run or the pass. Either way eventually NE would adjust and attack. Which is exactly what happened. With all the Moss hype , Bengals defended the pass when NE came out throwing. Once it was clear what was going on they just feed Sammy Morris and started moving the chains. When Cincy has the ball you basically have to cover the two star WRS and thats it. Obviously there studs and you cant do it every down but all you need to do is force them into situations where Cincy has to make plays to move the chains and the percentages are just not in there favor. The loss of Chris Henry is killing them. This week. Browns moved the ball but Anderson threw some early picks. No Jamal Lewis turned the game. The Browns should have lead 7-3. The NFL is easy to figure....follow the momentum. Cle plays great DEF
holds NE to 3 after 1st goal at the 3 yd line. Not suprisingly CLE drives it down to the NE 1 on the immediate possession.Lewis is out and only try 1 time on 3 downs to run it. With Anderson being picked off on third down.....HUGE momentum switch to the PATS. Backed up Cle holds NE and they punt. Next Anderson pass picked off again!! Pats ball at the 32 Yd of Cle next NE pass.....TD!!! A 7-3 Brown lead turns into 10-0 NE. Again be realistic you cant play from behind with NE. Little while later again CLE plays great defense to hold NE to a FG when 1st and goal. So 13-0 mid 2nd quarter. Again though Anderson throws a pick !! Setting up NE with a short field. Soon thereafter 20-0. My point here is CLE played well enough on defense that NE was unable to drive the length of the field to get points. Cle mistakes turned into NE TDS. So its not NE playing so well its the opponent playing so poorly. That in some ways is a factor of NE defense but not entirely.Third quarter not much doing as Cle gets 3 on the board. To start the 4th Cle is driving and scores again. Of course up 20-0 in some ways NE is on cruise control. Now though 20-10 NE wakes up and does what they couldnt do all game and that drive the field for a TD. Now after some punts Cle gets a short field and scores another TD 27-17. What this shows is with good field position you can score on NE defense IMO. Teams were 6 for 6 in the red zones scoring TDS before this game. NE get sthe ball and moves again inside the 10 yd line for 1st goal but again Cle turns them away. Electing for obvious reasons to go for it on 4th down NE puts nothing on the board. Starting atthe Cle 4 with 42 seconds left Cle completes a pass but they fumble and Gay just scoops it up and walks in for the TD. If thats not one of the worst backdoor covers in history I dont know what is. Cle even managed to get to NE 10 yd line after that but couldnt score.
The point is NE didnt dominant them here. They did what NE always does and didnt beat themeselves instead waiting for there opponent to self destruct. It easily could have been CLE 7-6 at HALFTIME....and again @ Cincy the Bengals had no chance with the injuries and current state of the team.
Dallas is very similiar. Look at the schedule . The Rams are banged up in the secondary and on offense. Yet the game should have been 7-7 at half. Romo pulled that run out of his ass and the late TD made it 14-7. Whats also missed is that STL missed a 28 yd FG and right thereafter thats when DAL scored its TD. Again a MOMENTUM switch. You just cant have these mistakes and expect to compete in hostile road enviroments. The Rams is secondary is actually in much worse shape then Buffalos. They had no answer for Crayton who scored big twice and made it 28-17. However with 1st and goal the Rams fluttered and Bulger was picked..in the end zone. Instead of 28-14 late 3rd quarter and still somewhat competitive game the INT turns nto 7 more for Dallas. Game over. Not as impressive as the misleading outcome. Previously the traveled to Chi and beat a Bear team who had no offense and benched the QB right after the game. It looks impressive cause what CHI did last year but reality is Chi was in turmoil. The feeling is Dallas tends to struggle on grass. Look at how bad Miami is and the Dolphins lead in the 3rd quarter!! They needed a 4th down 4th quarte TD to seal the win !Dallas lead 10-6 at halftime and scored on the 1st possession after half to lead 13-10. Then midway through the third quarter a huge Crayton punt return gave Dal a short field and eventual TD to lead 17-13 with about 5 to play third quarter. Then Miami started to shot themselves in the foot so to speak and UNRAVEL. Green throws an INT that leads to a FG now 20-13. See though momentum shifts lead to points though. Miami gets the ball moves into the 50 and then fumbles leading to another FG 23-13 11min to play. Exchange punts and Miami again moves to the 50 before another INT!So 23-13 with 4 to play 4th and 5 at MIA 34 then TO ices with a TD catch with Miami stacked at the line. Romeo only 14 of 29 and Julius Jones struggled. Again another win where the boxscore is misleading. The opener was nothing but a shootout they won. The best game DAL has played is @ Chi and that to is misleading. A quote...Tony Romo looked desperate early on, scrambling, rushing throws and doing all he could to avoid the Chicago defense. The only thing he didn't do was go away. This was 3-3 game at half and Dal just 4 of 13 on third down. Simply put Dal and NE will not beat themselves. Just like the Yankees in baseball though give them that 4th out and they will pile it on you in a hurry.
So thats my rant about these teams being OVERRATED.
Tonite I think Buffalo is a tough venue. Great crazy home crowd getting a MNF game. Dallas having to travel for the third time in 4 weeks to play in cool and crisp Buffalo. Oh and that game next week vs NE. Which I think two cocky guys TO and Romo are definetly looking past Buffalo to NE..TO was chirping about NE in week 2 !!!! I think even with the injuries Buff secondary with Whitner and McGee back is better then the makeshift dbs they saw @ Miami and versus StL. Thats my opinion. Jones isnt running the ball great but is still getting the ball. A team like Buf will be tough on special teams and Jauron is gonna play the game slow to keep his team in it. Thats what is good about Jauron. He doesnt mind small ball. Edwars will be a little nervous probably in his MNF debut but that should disappear quickly. Edwards in the 1st H had his offense in NYJ territory in 3 of the 4 possessions. a Robert Royal fumble killed one drive , a 1st down sack putting them in 2nd and 17 killed the second opportunity and the last one was killed by a Edwards INT. Then 1st possession after the half Buffalo gets it right and drives for a TD. After a NYJ score they get it back and drive again into NYJ territory and score three more. Making it 5 of 6 possessions in NYJ territory(inside the NYJ 40). Next Buff possession again he drives them and scores again 17-7!! With 6 consecutive drives into opposing territory. The last possession was up 17-14 and all they did was try to run clock and pick up a 1st down. They didnt but this kid Edwards moved the ball on 6 straight drives giving Buffalo a chance. Dallas will be w/o Anthony Henry and Newman is probably still less then 100% so we know you can move the ball on Dal through the air. The kid Lynch can run the ball.
I look for Buffalo to move the chains and keep it up out Dal hands. Dont forget Lee Evans is still a deep threat and RB Lynch still a homerun threat when he touches it. The key is Buff not shooting themselves in the foot. When they have a chance to score get those points on the board and do there best to limit big plays on offense for Dal and keep them to 3 instead of 7. Buff has shown in 2 home games they are gonna be in the game and Dal has shown in both road games they take a HALF to wakeup ( 3-3 @ chi , lead 10-6 @ Miami). I really dont see how Buff is much worse if at all then Miami. Who needed a 47 Folk FG and 4th& 5 TD to put the Phins away (20-13 atthe time). After Miami gave Dal the game. Buffalo had allowed 15 pts per at home on 400yards...bend dont break defense for sure. The offense looks to have a chance to move the ball with Edwards not at the helm.
Dallas went from -3 @ Miami to -10 or more @ Buffalo...perception has gotten way ahead of these teams and that is how value is created.....I actually think since focus could be an issue for Dal that Buffalo has a minor chance to win this game outright.....Dallas got 9 turnovers in Miami and Chi thats ridiculous. I think the line should be closer to -6 or -7 here. As for the total the 1st H under is extremely inviting...I'll be back with more on that. I dont think its that unbelievable that BUF wins this game and then a s asmall hoe dof Dallas beats NE next week. I think if Dal wins but doesnt really cover the line will be NE -1.5 if they lose SU +3 and if they win convincingly PK to Dal -1.5 . Plus I have a Yankee game to talk about. Good Luck
Side Note : The fact that Buffalo hasnt played on MNF in 14 years has to be a positive factor . As well as the Everett situation .
Yankees
Game #4 ALDS
One thing is if you dont know that sinkerballers are better tired then on long rest you should be studying the game abit more. So I dont feel the need to discuss that angle. I will say though Torre was very foolish to not let Wang pitch at some point at the end of the reg season. The reason why he ucked on the road in Game 1 was cause he was on to long rest.
As I mentioned earlier I think taking a stab at the Yankees to win the World Series is an excellent value play here. First you should get somewhere around 5-1. Second is if NY wins tonite they have all the momentum even going back to Cle. Why ? Cle will be pressured not to choke. However Pettitte has already shown he is throwing well and can pitch @ the jake. On the flip Sabathis didnt look so sharp vs NYY and you would have to give Pettitte the edge in that matchup IMO. So winning this series gives us Colorado Rockies like momentum. Then we face Boston on Friday I believe. Beckett will be on a ton of rest but we have handled Beckett fairly well recently. Bos will have lost all there momentum due to the time off and NYY will be playing with. Boston will have the better setup SP wise on paper but I'll take Hughes in Game 1.
Tonite a few things stick out. Naturally the price is one. There were few instances that Wang was below -180 at home. The low was early vs Wakefield laying -150. Wang was injured out of Spring Training so it probably took hima month to get right. Those early season starts dont carry much weight with me. This guy was -170 late in the season vs Roy Halladay and laid heavy wood when facing quality teams and SP .
We know the Yanks are loaded with LHB and are 75-50 vs RHP this year. Byrd despite good stats on the road has allowed LHB to hit 322 and 369 the past 2 years. I think his new found splitter has helped some but still he has allowed 259 hits past 2 years to LHB. The past 2 season in NITE starts he is . 304BAA , 4.88 ERA and .333 BAA and 5.66 ERA. Tonite's lineup is 35/116 career off him and Mientkiewcz was 5/8 last season in KC.
Wang was 10-4 2.75 ERA at home this year , 11-3 3.03 ERA last year an 13-2 and 12-3 at nite in these seasons.Batters only hit 235 off him at the Stadium.
Now the three day situation isnt as new as its made out to be. In 2005 he started(77pitches) and then 3 days later in May came in relief to face Bos. His results were okay 4 2/3 innings 6 hits 2runs. This also was his 1st career relief appearance. The next situation was 2006. On 6/1 he started threw 73 pitches in a subpar outing then on 6/3 he came into close a game and went 2/3 of inning (15pitches) for the save. Then 6/6 he went on to start and be solid lasting 109 pitches. So the concern is pretty alleviated IMO especially when Wang is a sinkerballer. In 11 of his last 14 at Home the opponents have managed 3 runs or less for the game.
Now the Yanks have some momentum and a quick 1-2-3 inning in the Top of the 1st would be awesome. Byrd last 2 innings allowing 7 runs in his lone 2007 start vs NY. He was hit hard his last 3 starts and really his last 5 were below average. I expect Byrd to be prepared butsits been awhile since he started. Long rest has been a plus for him before in his career. I dont think Cle is hitting all that well at all and face a tough SP who should go 6 maybe even 7 or 8 innings depending on pitch count. I have to say I was disgustedto see Joba in the 7 yesterday cause I wanted him fresh as possible. Hughes only threw 60 something pitches. If you get Joba and Mo for the 8th and 9 you have to pray for Wang to go 7 innings cause I dont know who we use maybe Mussina probably Vizcaino though...
last thing is the total first it was 9.5 last nite. Wang is a huge upgrade over Clemens while Byrd is a slight downgrade over Westbrook who had pitched so well away of late. Tonite you will see 10 maybe 10.5 total. I think it was lucky to see 12 runs last nite and go over. On the road Cle hits 256 compared to NYY 306 vs RHP. Tribe are 5-21 past 26 trips to NYY.The yanks 3 games with Culbreth behind the dish this season were all low scoring UNDERS.
Yankees -1.5 Runs -130 Under 10 +115. Of note Wang when allowing 5 + earned runs is 11-3 in his next start with all 3 losses well pitched outings he allowed 3runs or less...
Buffalo Bills +10.5
One thing I am quite sure of the two most overrated teams in the NFL are the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys. The funny thing about the Patriots is after all this time they simple are hardly ever huge public plays. I felt the 16.5 line was fair yesterday but knew the move down to 15.5 meant trouble. Lets get into why I think this. How is NE overrated. First look at there opponents. We know now that the Jets are a mess . They cruised and why would anyone at this point not expect the PATS to be a well oiled machine. Come on now NE will not beat itself even with role players taking up for injured stars. We learned Randy Moss was back. The second game we learned that SD game 1 troubles versus CHI were no fluke. They impressively smoked SD but this is a team playing with a new head coach in his second game. Nice win but great spot for NE. The Bills bewteen defensive injuries and offensive issues showed @ Pitt and @ NE just how competitive they would be versus good defenses on the road. The Bengals...you cant win in the NFL when your entire linebacking core is decimated. Think they dressed 4 linebackers and two were gone by the end of quarter 1. Rudi Johnson loss was overrated cause I think Keny Watson is a wash basically. What people dont see beynd the two stud WRs is this team hasabsolutely nothing. They dont have a TE who can contribute in the passing game or a 3rd WR. So your playing one of the best OL and you have no linebackers?? Wasnt hard to think Cincy had to pick a poison...sell out to stop the run or the pass. Either way eventually NE would adjust and attack. Which is exactly what happened. With all the Moss hype , Bengals defended the pass when NE came out throwing. Once it was clear what was going on they just feed Sammy Morris and started moving the chains. When Cincy has the ball you basically have to cover the two star WRS and thats it. Obviously there studs and you cant do it every down but all you need to do is force them into situations where Cincy has to make plays to move the chains and the percentages are just not in there favor. The loss of Chris Henry is killing them. This week. Browns moved the ball but Anderson threw some early picks. No Jamal Lewis turned the game. The Browns should have lead 7-3. The NFL is easy to figure....follow the momentum. Cle plays great DEF
holds NE to 3 after 1st goal at the 3 yd line. Not suprisingly CLE drives it down to the NE 1 on the immediate possession.Lewis is out and only try 1 time on 3 downs to run it. With Anderson being picked off on third down.....HUGE momentum switch to the PATS. Backed up Cle holds NE and they punt. Next Anderson pass picked off again!! Pats ball at the 32 Yd of Cle next NE pass.....TD!!! A 7-3 Brown lead turns into 10-0 NE. Again be realistic you cant play from behind with NE. Little while later again CLE plays great defense to hold NE to a FG when 1st and goal. So 13-0 mid 2nd quarter. Again though Anderson throws a pick !! Setting up NE with a short field. Soon thereafter 20-0. My point here is CLE played well enough on defense that NE was unable to drive the length of the field to get points. Cle mistakes turned into NE TDS. So its not NE playing so well its the opponent playing so poorly. That in some ways is a factor of NE defense but not entirely.Third quarter not much doing as Cle gets 3 on the board. To start the 4th Cle is driving and scores again. Of course up 20-0 in some ways NE is on cruise control. Now though 20-10 NE wakes up and does what they couldnt do all game and that drive the field for a TD. Now after some punts Cle gets a short field and scores another TD 27-17. What this shows is with good field position you can score on NE defense IMO. Teams were 6 for 6 in the red zones scoring TDS before this game. NE get sthe ball and moves again inside the 10 yd line for 1st goal but again Cle turns them away. Electing for obvious reasons to go for it on 4th down NE puts nothing on the board. Starting atthe Cle 4 with 42 seconds left Cle completes a pass but they fumble and Gay just scoops it up and walks in for the TD. If thats not one of the worst backdoor covers in history I dont know what is. Cle even managed to get to NE 10 yd line after that but couldnt score.
The point is NE didnt dominant them here. They did what NE always does and didnt beat themeselves instead waiting for there opponent to self destruct. It easily could have been CLE 7-6 at HALFTIME....and again @ Cincy the Bengals had no chance with the injuries and current state of the team.
Dallas is very similiar. Look at the schedule . The Rams are banged up in the secondary and on offense. Yet the game should have been 7-7 at half. Romo pulled that run out of his ass and the late TD made it 14-7. Whats also missed is that STL missed a 28 yd FG and right thereafter thats when DAL scored its TD. Again a MOMENTUM switch. You just cant have these mistakes and expect to compete in hostile road enviroments. The Rams is secondary is actually in much worse shape then Buffalos. They had no answer for Crayton who scored big twice and made it 28-17. However with 1st and goal the Rams fluttered and Bulger was picked..in the end zone. Instead of 28-14 late 3rd quarter and still somewhat competitive game the INT turns nto 7 more for Dallas. Game over. Not as impressive as the misleading outcome. Previously the traveled to Chi and beat a Bear team who had no offense and benched the QB right after the game. It looks impressive cause what CHI did last year but reality is Chi was in turmoil. The feeling is Dallas tends to struggle on grass. Look at how bad Miami is and the Dolphins lead in the 3rd quarter!! They needed a 4th down 4th quarte TD to seal the win !Dallas lead 10-6 at halftime and scored on the 1st possession after half to lead 13-10. Then midway through the third quarter a huge Crayton punt return gave Dal a short field and eventual TD to lead 17-13 with about 5 to play third quarter. Then Miami started to shot themselves in the foot so to speak and UNRAVEL. Green throws an INT that leads to a FG now 20-13. See though momentum shifts lead to points though. Miami gets the ball moves into the 50 and then fumbles leading to another FG 23-13 11min to play. Exchange punts and Miami again moves to the 50 before another INT!So 23-13 with 4 to play 4th and 5 at MIA 34 then TO ices with a TD catch with Miami stacked at the line. Romeo only 14 of 29 and Julius Jones struggled. Again another win where the boxscore is misleading. The opener was nothing but a shootout they won. The best game DAL has played is @ Chi and that to is misleading. A quote...Tony Romo looked desperate early on, scrambling, rushing throws and doing all he could to avoid the Chicago defense. The only thing he didn't do was go away. This was 3-3 game at half and Dal just 4 of 13 on third down. Simply put Dal and NE will not beat themselves. Just like the Yankees in baseball though give them that 4th out and they will pile it on you in a hurry.
So thats my rant about these teams being OVERRATED.
Tonite I think Buffalo is a tough venue. Great crazy home crowd getting a MNF game. Dallas having to travel for the third time in 4 weeks to play in cool and crisp Buffalo. Oh and that game next week vs NE. Which I think two cocky guys TO and Romo are definetly looking past Buffalo to NE..TO was chirping about NE in week 2 !!!! I think even with the injuries Buff secondary with Whitner and McGee back is better then the makeshift dbs they saw @ Miami and versus StL. Thats my opinion. Jones isnt running the ball great but is still getting the ball. A team like Buf will be tough on special teams and Jauron is gonna play the game slow to keep his team in it. Thats what is good about Jauron. He doesnt mind small ball. Edwars will be a little nervous probably in his MNF debut but that should disappear quickly. Edwards in the 1st H had his offense in NYJ territory in 3 of the 4 possessions. a Robert Royal fumble killed one drive , a 1st down sack putting them in 2nd and 17 killed the second opportunity and the last one was killed by a Edwards INT. Then 1st possession after the half Buffalo gets it right and drives for a TD. After a NYJ score they get it back and drive again into NYJ territory and score three more. Making it 5 of 6 possessions in NYJ territory(inside the NYJ 40). Next Buff possession again he drives them and scores again 17-7!! With 6 consecutive drives into opposing territory. The last possession was up 17-14 and all they did was try to run clock and pick up a 1st down. They didnt but this kid Edwards moved the ball on 6 straight drives giving Buffalo a chance. Dallas will be w/o Anthony Henry and Newman is probably still less then 100% so we know you can move the ball on Dal through the air. The kid Lynch can run the ball.
I look for Buffalo to move the chains and keep it up out Dal hands. Dont forget Lee Evans is still a deep threat and RB Lynch still a homerun threat when he touches it. The key is Buff not shooting themselves in the foot. When they have a chance to score get those points on the board and do there best to limit big plays on offense for Dal and keep them to 3 instead of 7. Buff has shown in 2 home games they are gonna be in the game and Dal has shown in both road games they take a HALF to wakeup ( 3-3 @ chi , lead 10-6 @ Miami). I really dont see how Buff is much worse if at all then Miami. Who needed a 47 Folk FG and 4th& 5 TD to put the Phins away (20-13 atthe time). After Miami gave Dal the game. Buffalo had allowed 15 pts per at home on 400yards...bend dont break defense for sure. The offense looks to have a chance to move the ball with Edwards not at the helm.
Dallas went from -3 @ Miami to -10 or more @ Buffalo...perception has gotten way ahead of these teams and that is how value is created.....I actually think since focus could be an issue for Dal that Buffalo has a minor chance to win this game outright.....Dallas got 9 turnovers in Miami and Chi thats ridiculous. I think the line should be closer to -6 or -7 here. As for the total the 1st H under is extremely inviting...I'll be back with more on that. I dont think its that unbelievable that BUF wins this game and then a s asmall hoe dof Dallas beats NE next week. I think if Dal wins but doesnt really cover the line will be NE -1.5 if they lose SU +3 and if they win convincingly PK to Dal -1.5 . Plus I have a Yankee game to talk about. Good Luck
Side Note : The fact that Buffalo hasnt played on MNF in 14 years has to be a positive factor . As well as the Everett situation .
Yankees
Game #4 ALDS
One thing is if you dont know that sinkerballers are better tired then on long rest you should be studying the game abit more. So I dont feel the need to discuss that angle. I will say though Torre was very foolish to not let Wang pitch at some point at the end of the reg season. The reason why he ucked on the road in Game 1 was cause he was on to long rest.
As I mentioned earlier I think taking a stab at the Yankees to win the World Series is an excellent value play here. First you should get somewhere around 5-1. Second is if NY wins tonite they have all the momentum even going back to Cle. Why ? Cle will be pressured not to choke. However Pettitte has already shown he is throwing well and can pitch @ the jake. On the flip Sabathis didnt look so sharp vs NYY and you would have to give Pettitte the edge in that matchup IMO. So winning this series gives us Colorado Rockies like momentum. Then we face Boston on Friday I believe. Beckett will be on a ton of rest but we have handled Beckett fairly well recently. Bos will have lost all there momentum due to the time off and NYY will be playing with. Boston will have the better setup SP wise on paper but I'll take Hughes in Game 1.
Tonite a few things stick out. Naturally the price is one. There were few instances that Wang was below -180 at home. The low was early vs Wakefield laying -150. Wang was injured out of Spring Training so it probably took hima month to get right. Those early season starts dont carry much weight with me. This guy was -170 late in the season vs Roy Halladay and laid heavy wood when facing quality teams and SP .
We know the Yanks are loaded with LHB and are 75-50 vs RHP this year. Byrd despite good stats on the road has allowed LHB to hit 322 and 369 the past 2 years. I think his new found splitter has helped some but still he has allowed 259 hits past 2 years to LHB. The past 2 season in NITE starts he is . 304BAA , 4.88 ERA and .333 BAA and 5.66 ERA. Tonite's lineup is 35/116 career off him and Mientkiewcz was 5/8 last season in KC.
Wang was 10-4 2.75 ERA at home this year , 11-3 3.03 ERA last year an 13-2 and 12-3 at nite in these seasons.Batters only hit 235 off him at the Stadium.
Now the three day situation isnt as new as its made out to be. In 2005 he started(77pitches) and then 3 days later in May came in relief to face Bos. His results were okay 4 2/3 innings 6 hits 2runs. This also was his 1st career relief appearance. The next situation was 2006. On 6/1 he started threw 73 pitches in a subpar outing then on 6/3 he came into close a game and went 2/3 of inning (15pitches) for the save. Then 6/6 he went on to start and be solid lasting 109 pitches. So the concern is pretty alleviated IMO especially when Wang is a sinkerballer. In 11 of his last 14 at Home the opponents have managed 3 runs or less for the game.
Now the Yanks have some momentum and a quick 1-2-3 inning in the Top of the 1st would be awesome. Byrd last 2 innings allowing 7 runs in his lone 2007 start vs NY. He was hit hard his last 3 starts and really his last 5 were below average. I expect Byrd to be prepared butsits been awhile since he started. Long rest has been a plus for him before in his career. I dont think Cle is hitting all that well at all and face a tough SP who should go 6 maybe even 7 or 8 innings depending on pitch count. I have to say I was disgustedto see Joba in the 7 yesterday cause I wanted him fresh as possible. Hughes only threw 60 something pitches. If you get Joba and Mo for the 8th and 9 you have to pray for Wang to go 7 innings cause I dont know who we use maybe Mussina probably Vizcaino though...
last thing is the total first it was 9.5 last nite. Wang is a huge upgrade over Clemens while Byrd is a slight downgrade over Westbrook who had pitched so well away of late. Tonite you will see 10 maybe 10.5 total. I think it was lucky to see 12 runs last nite and go over. On the road Cle hits 256 compared to NYY 306 vs RHP. Tribe are 5-21 past 26 trips to NYY.The yanks 3 games with Culbreth behind the dish this season were all low scoring UNDERS.
Yankees -1.5 Runs -130 Under 10 +115. Of note Wang when allowing 5 + earned runs is 11-3 in his next start with all 3 losses well pitched outings he allowed 3runs or less...
Sunday, October 07, 2007
The NFL..Remember this - Rarely are two weeks alike in the NFL , at leats in my 14 years..-Trent Dilfer
Titans -8
Suprisingly this has become one of my favorite plays of the day. I say that cause like most at first glance we think Falcons have played fairly well this season and 8 points is alot. Well then I thought about ATL prior lines. This team was catching a FG at home vs a banged up Hou team. Yes, I loved ATL last week but that means they would have been about 10 dogs @ Hou w/o key players. How bout 4 pt dogs vs a medicore Carolina team...Bottomline is Tenny will stop the run and has a solid defense. Lets not forget the ATL offense in its 2 road games...lean UNDER here like 27-10. We always say in the NFL just pick the SU winner cause the spread rarely comes into play...well I dont think many think ATL wins this game with Titans off the BYE..so basically most ATL backers expect a 4-7 pt loss...you can see then how little room you have actually backing ATL then..what happens if they fall behind quick..??
NYJ +3.5 or +4
I would have to say that NYG will probably still have a slight home field edge here. We cant be that happy with the NYG offense of late. Philly was w/o Sheppard and Dawkins. How bout the 1st H @ Wash...vs GB...??? Plax versus the Jets will be interesting but the you just never know how he feels when he steps on the field. Umenyiora is a gametime decision after a career game...expect a flat performance here if he plays....thinking 1st H Under......
LONG , LONG list of plays I am contemplating :
Arizona -3.5 / Under 40.5 : Many injuries on the offenses sides. So hard to lay it with Zona on the road but STL OL is ravaged , the secondary is banged up , plus no Bulger , Jackson , or Bruce...solid reserves though
Under 41 Tenny or team UNDER ATL..
Under 43.5 Carolina : The Saints defense is banged up but what has the offfense done?? David Carr at QB ....
Browns +17 -120 : You hate to fade NE. However the Browns are NOT the pathetic Bills...
Last week Oak looked so easy catching 4.5 from miami. Here at 1st glance DET looked so easy catching 3.5 from Wash. However Wash is off a BYE and did lay 3.5 to the NYG...leaning Skins now and 1st H under...
Tough game @ KC but lean towards the home team but definetly not playing this one...Jax is a wildcard..
Over 43 Miami : The Miami defense is a mess plain and simple...3 games allowing 30+++. oak scored 38 throwing 12 times!!!!! That even with injuries makes me lean towards to Houston...I wouldnt be suprised if Hou won a late FG 27-24..
Under 41 NYG : Where the OFFENSE...??
Seattle +6 ...early cross country start. I never thought Pitt was that good but Seattle hasnt shined either.....the offense is barely cracking 20 points....
Be back shortly.....GL
Titans -8
Suprisingly this has become one of my favorite plays of the day. I say that cause like most at first glance we think Falcons have played fairly well this season and 8 points is alot. Well then I thought about ATL prior lines. This team was catching a FG at home vs a banged up Hou team. Yes, I loved ATL last week but that means they would have been about 10 dogs @ Hou w/o key players. How bout 4 pt dogs vs a medicore Carolina team...Bottomline is Tenny will stop the run and has a solid defense. Lets not forget the ATL offense in its 2 road games...lean UNDER here like 27-10. We always say in the NFL just pick the SU winner cause the spread rarely comes into play...well I dont think many think ATL wins this game with Titans off the BYE..so basically most ATL backers expect a 4-7 pt loss...you can see then how little room you have actually backing ATL then..what happens if they fall behind quick..??
NYJ +3.5 or +4
I would have to say that NYG will probably still have a slight home field edge here. We cant be that happy with the NYG offense of late. Philly was w/o Sheppard and Dawkins. How bout the 1st H @ Wash...vs GB...??? Plax versus the Jets will be interesting but the you just never know how he feels when he steps on the field. Umenyiora is a gametime decision after a career game...expect a flat performance here if he plays....thinking 1st H Under......
LONG , LONG list of plays I am contemplating :
Arizona -3.5 / Under 40.5 : Many injuries on the offenses sides. So hard to lay it with Zona on the road but STL OL is ravaged , the secondary is banged up , plus no Bulger , Jackson , or Bruce...solid reserves though
Under 41 Tenny or team UNDER ATL..
Under 43.5 Carolina : The Saints defense is banged up but what has the offfense done?? David Carr at QB ....
Browns +17 -120 : You hate to fade NE. However the Browns are NOT the pathetic Bills...
Last week Oak looked so easy catching 4.5 from miami. Here at 1st glance DET looked so easy catching 3.5 from Wash. However Wash is off a BYE and did lay 3.5 to the NYG...leaning Skins now and 1st H under...
Tough game @ KC but lean towards the home team but definetly not playing this one...Jax is a wildcard..
Over 43 Miami : The Miami defense is a mess plain and simple...3 games allowing 30+++. oak scored 38 throwing 12 times!!!!! That even with injuries makes me lean towards to Houston...I wouldnt be suprised if Hou won a late FG 27-24..
Under 41 NYG : Where the OFFENSE...??
Seattle +6 ...early cross country start. I never thought Pitt was that good but Seattle hasnt shined either.....the offense is barely cracking 20 points....
Be back shortly.....GL
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