College Football Saturday

Really have to say that I have ha dlittle to no time to look at this card . So playing very little and dont have time to expand on my thoughts. So take this for what its worth.

Early :
Indiana +11 -110 (2x) cancel changed my mind


Under 26.5 Missouri -101 (2x)

Leans-
UConn +101
Virgina -4 -103
Mich St -25 -105
Under 16.5 +100 Memphis Team
Under 42 Wisky / Und 27 Wisky team
Over 54 Mich St

So just the 1 play looking at ND game and might be back with that.

Afternoon matchups

Miami Ohio +12 -110 (2x)

Arizona State ML -135 (3x)

Texas Tech +3.5 -120 (2x)

Under 17.5 Rice -116 (2x)

Northern Illinois -6 -120 (2x)

Small-

Under 26.5 +106 Flordia team (1x)

Over 27.5 texas Tech +114 (1x)

VaTech -8 -110 (1x)

Under Northwestern 10.5 +101 (1x)

Good Luck very little effort put in here so use your judgement

Nite-

Minnesota +10 -103 (5x) ML +350 (1/2x)

Iowa +7 -110 (4x) MLL +220 (.75x)

Mid ten St +3.5 +100 (2x)

Wash St +15 -111 (1x)

Ov Clemson 43.5 team -111(1x)

Kansas +21.5 -101 (2x)

UNLV +3.5 -120 (2x)

TEASER (3x)

UCLA -13 , Fresno -3.5 , Wash +13.5

GL remember I am useless today but couldnt resist.

NFL will be in effect though!

Some MLB-

Reds -134 (2x)

Mets -115 (3x)

Under 4.5 -119 First 5 Inn NYM (1.5x)

Indians -176 (2x)

Over 5.5 +103 DET First 5 Inn (2x) & Over 10 +111 (1x)

Over ATL 4 -117 (2.5x)

Over DET 5.5 -111(1.5x)

GL

Friday Thoughts-

Early baseball

Over 9.5 -101 (1.5x) Over 5 -117 1st 5 Inn (1.5x) Over Cubs 5.5 +106 (1x)

Just some action.... Fogg has been struggling and has bad day splits. Zambrano is inconsistent and the Rockies have been scoring

Mistake by me!

South Florida +4 -110 (6x)
South Fla ML +163 (1.5x)
Under 22.5 RU +105 (1.5x)

Some comments I made at other sites:

Okay guys just started looking at this game and I have to say I dont see why Rutgers is -3.5 pts favs. I mean explain to me what they have done his year. They beat and barely won @ UNC. They led 14-10 at home extended it to 21-10 when UNC was knocking on the door and I vaguely remember the play but on the 1yd line UNC fumbled. That would have made it 21-17 or 16-18 if they go for 2 pts. Next they stop RU after the fumble and drive right down field and score (89yd drive) make it 21-6 miss the deuce. Stop RU again and get the ball back. Now have it 3rd and 6 at the RU 29 and get picked. I understsand there is some woulda, coulda , shoulda involved. However we are talking NORTH CAROLINA. How bad did both VaTech and Clemson smoke this team? Now I have to say that R fumbled deep in UNC territory. However it was 3rd and 15 from the 16 yd line...so really they missed out on 3 pts. The yardage was nearly equal 5.7 per play but NC ran 6 more plays.How bad in UNC they won by 3 against Furman at home. Now I know Furman is sound and a good 1 AA program but this is the ACC. Oh VaTech beat them 35-10 at home and last weeks #19 Clemson beat them 52-7 as only 2 TD favs. The kicker about RU @ UNC is that they wer e4.5 point dogs! Truthfully though the line indicates UNC is a stronger team , I owuld be comfortable saying on a neutral field the game would be a PK or RU -1.5 nothing more.Now The Scarlet Knights come home. They play Illinois. If you watched that game you felt bad for Illinois thats how bad they looked. It was mostly points off takeaways and RU just literally ran the ball everytime 2nd Half think it was 30-0 at half. Again how bad is Illinois? As a bad as they are they did manage to beat RU at home last year in a huge choke job RU. Bottomline just 10 pt favs and Ill is bad folks...Now Ohio U. They started off down 7-0 to Frank Solich 's boyz but ran over 24 straight 1st Half oints. The last a defensive TD which put them up 24-7. How bad is Ohio U's offense? I do recall the beat Pitt at home last year without scoring an offensive TD...they had 2 pick 6's by the same kid!WHile I am knocking Ohio U there defense is solid and if you look the gave RU a game despite the final. Teel was 6 of16 for 83 yds and 3 INTS's. This year a 2 TD -5 Int Ratio and career is 4TD to 14 INTS. Folks RU has no passing game and that is a big change from Ryan Hart. Ray Rice and Brian Leonard are very , very good backs but Leonard for HEISMAN was so laughable it was like anti-American propoganda in the Mid East... simply outrageous! Oh and Ohio after Teel Ints had the ball inside the 20of RU twice and didnt scoer anything....good RU defense or BAD Ohio offense...I chose bad offense.Now they played Howard....Do I have to even go there!So what is so special about RU? Last year they opened at Ill and collapsed in the 4th Q losing 33 -30. Then they played @ Buffalo and won 17-3 to bad they couldnt score enough to cover the 23 pt spread. They went to Syracuse as 2.5 dogs and won 31-9. Now say that OUTLOUD Underdog at Syracuse! Playing against UConns 3 rd stringer they won 26-24 and not cashing against the -3 spread. Say it agains 3rd string QB... There crowning acheivement was going to Lousiville catching 23 and losing 56-5! Funny but South Florida won @ Rutgers catching 2.5 and hosted Lville and won at home vs them.Very interesting matchup. RU lost there QB Hart but have strong backs in Rice and Leonard. Now QB was a problem with Paul Jumiste but he got hurt and Grohe has stepped in a NICE UPGRADE. Problem is USF LOST Andre Hall and both replacements are injured and or suspended.RU as I am trying to explain lacks a passing game and also lost its best WR vs Howard and are now extremely thin @ wr. They do have Clark Harris @ TE who is there playmaker in the passing game. I just dont see how RU is better this year then last? The defense looks solid but how could it not with those opponents? RU has taken a step back with Teel at QB, as good teams can focus on the run.USF is a bit tougher to figure cause it relies so heavily on Grohe. I havent seen the kid play. I was impressed that he reportedly outplayed Jumiste in camp a senior and returning starter. I was impressed whne called upon vs McNeese St he was ready to play and led the offense. I was somewhat impressed after watching UCF tonite he received Big East Player of the week for his 300yd game against them. I dont think he played that badly vs KU a solid defensive team on the road. Openin drive the kid takes them downfield but after 77 yards or so they cant convert a 4th and 1. Losing 13-7 to KU isnt a bad thing in my back. I though KU outplayed Toledo earlier. Sure KU had its backup QB but Barraman had started at one time and was a senior. I think people will knock USF for the Fla Int game but they were 20 pt chalk something RU wasnt versus Illinois or Ohio U . They did give FIU 13 of the 20 points they scored ...punt return and pick 6. Also Grohe is young hewill be up and down...he was down vs FIU and rebounded to play well @ UCF. I for one knw that USF returns 7 of 11 on defense. I know they have played solid defense this year and definetly last year. Isnt holding WVU to 28 impressive or Lville 14??Still working on this game but RU is one dimensonal..pure rushing attack. Its tough to be like that and score on the road and tougher to be road chalk. I said that with SoMiss tonite and say what you want but I still feel like UCF outplayed them. Look at the favt UCF twice walked awy with no points after driving 75-85 yards! Fumble at the 1 and missed 26 yarder! Then take into account all of SoMiss points came after momentum changing plays.I think RU struggles to score here. I also said that the NE and Denver line was bad , the Falcon line was inflated and today I told the UCF line was INflated! Iwas righ three times. Its late and I am going to Fla tmrw so to be continued.However I think this probably should be a PKem . Remember RU last year at home was ONLY -2.5 and lost. I dont see RU as being better in 2006 with Teel , some WR;s questions and a untested defense that lost some core players from 2005.


More:

We know the South Fla offense is one dimensional. The great thing about that is they arent the favorite and they dont have to win by a certain amount. I am more concerned about RU offense versus the USF defense.You have to score when playing as ROAD CHALK and RU hasnt shown they can IMO. All you have to is disprove the favorite and the dog becomes the play in my eyes. There are only two choices right? RU has shown what on offense? Especially if the opposing teams pathetic offense isnt giving them points. Trust me Ohio u and Illinois will be bottomfeeders in offensive rankingsIt's clear that Matt Grohe is the USF offense and thats a concern. The kid is a FROSH with alot of weight on his shoulders. The key for me was his performance @ UCF amd @ Kansas. The KU game doesnt show that he took the offense 77 yards on the opening drive but they went for it on 4th down and failed. To me its mighty impressive a Freshman QB can go to a big school like KU who has a good defense and just drive the ball without a running game. Thats a helluva alot more then Mike Teel has done. Remember 4 TDS in Teels longer career and Grohe had 3 in his 1st road game. I continue to think for some reason people miss that rushing yards are great but if you cant throw the ball you cant convert third downs. If you cant convert 3rd downs and sustain drives you wont score TDs but settle for FGS. My approach is not what one team can do BUT what the ROAD fav cant do. I have been saying the past few nites. ATL great rushing numbers but how come just 34 points in 2 games? Michael Vick and the passing game. Last nite great Frosh runner for SoMiss but they cant move the ball consistently thru the air IMO. What happened with the SoMiss offense last nite? Couldnt do anything unless it was off a momentum changing play against UCF offense. Now I dont like the fact USF really doesnt have any RB's..but again they are the underdog. And again 21 points @ UNC or 17 at home vs Ohio or 19 vs Illinois doesnt show me much.The fact some people keep glossing over is North Carolina and Illinois are pathetic BIG CONFERENCE schools. These teams are getting whipped every week and Rutgers didnt play that well versus them. It seems to be missed that @ UNC they were up 21-10 and with NC on the 1yd line the Heels fumbled. That would have made it 21-16,17,or 18 depending on the PAT decision. Then RU doesnt do anything on offense and punt it back. UNC after just missing a score goes down the field and scores a TD to make a 5pt game. The RU punts again and UNC gets the ball to the RU 29 but there is an INT and a 21-16 final. This wasnt some dominanting performance. Look at what Vatech and Clemson did to Carolina...beatings! It was a narrow win versus a bad team. Granted in years past they may have blown that type of game. They are UNTESTED! If you saw the Illini game you KNOW that all Illinois did was shoot itself in the foot starting with a blocked punt for a TD and then bad passes and a pick 6. It was 14-0 and RU didnt do anything on offense. Please dont praise the RU defense either cause these programs suck and there offense's suck. Just look at what Illinois does on the road typically...@ Purdue Lost 37-3 , @ Ohio State lost 40-2 , @Indiana 36-13 the Hoosiers are the team closest to them in the Big Ten, @ Iowa 35-7. They last decent game they played under Zook was @ Cal were they lost 35-20. Illinois is repeatedly embarrassed on the road and they only managed 13 against Indiana. It was iffy they would crack 10 vs Rutgers from the getgo. Big deal instead of 10 they got blanked. How good is RU well last year Indiana was home and won 36-13 as 7 point favs . This year RU is home and they lay -10.5 and win 33-0! That tells me something when a sperad is so close..Take awaythe Ohio game? Thats the only decent defense he played and he failed miserably! Thats my point. The other 3 games are modest? He played UNC , Illinois and Howard and all he could do was 2 TDs and 2 Ints with a 146 ,145 ,133 yards...I know someone will say they didnt have to throw...come'on. He played in relief @ McNeese St and it was his first college game! They were scoreless till he took over in the 2nd and finished with 41points. I would absolutely agree that he didnt play well vs Fla Intl but that isnt such a bad program...they almost won @ Maryland this weekend. Not to mention his 1st careet start as a FROSH. FIU is probably better then the RU opponents outside of UNC. The key is they were 20 point favorites against FIU. Thats the same number for the FIU game @ Maryalnd!. That line opened at 20 and closed at 20 IF it was so obvious that South Fla stunk why didnt they pound that line down? Simple cause going in expecattaions were USF could win by 3TDS. A young QB had a bad day thats why you dont lay 20- poinst with unproven QB's at home or lay it with them on the road especially to back a public fav.I cant believe you are saying USF cant run for beans. No kidding they graduated Andre Hall and both his replacements are gone. One back got hurt in the opener and another suspended. USF doesnt even have a RB! They do but you get my point, they really dont. That game against UCF got him Big East Player of the Week I believe. Another key was USF was favored an won on the road with a young QB! Now @ Kansas the numbers dont look good but thats a very solid defense and tough place to play. Go check KU at home last season. They started sloppy this year but I believe were without the star corner first 2 games. Playing @ KU is much tougher then playing @ UNC. USF got so much respect they were only 3 pt dogs. Rutgers was +4.5 @ UNC. We are all dealing in opinions its just we have to be objective. USF struggled against both because they have a young QB who they heavily rely on. Though Grohe did NOT struggle @UCF he struggled in his 1st college start vs FIU.Again who has Rutgers played? They didnt blowout UNC so they smoked Illinois and Howard at home ....you have to be kidding! They didnt blowout Ohio U they won 24-7 , didnt score in the 2nd Half and had a defensive TD. Ohio U is a pathetic offense like I tried to explain and had the ball TWICE inside the Rutgers 20 and scored 0 points due to a missed FG and INT in the 2nd Half. How does that game look at 24-17?You say they pass when they need to ....INCORRECT. They lead 30-0 vs Illi but how many did they score in the 2nd Half? Answer 3! If this rushing attack is so good how come they couldnt score 1 time in the 2nd H? I see big programs with bug leads at half jusr un over teams. Hpow come RU cant? Illi defense isnt good where they trying that hard down 30-0 or is the RU running game overrated. They led 24-7 @ half vs Ohio U how come they had scoreless 2nd Half? Teel has many opportunities to move the chains but couldnt sustain a drive and what happened with that great running game. It should be able to just run at will. How ocme UNC kept getting chances to comeback why could RU just run out the clock? Okay cause RU coulnt make 1st downs!Its not a personal attack. Its just the same arguement ever RU backer gives. No one has addressed how RU didnt travel well last year , how RU hasnt had a tough opponent. USF played good defense IMO last year holding WV to 28 and Lville to 14. This isnt Pat WHite @ WV and Steve Slayton. Teel cant scramble or run like White....not the same thing and WVU ground game did it versus Georgia...I like USF defense the most here. I dont liek having to trust a freshman QB in his 1st conference game. Problem is I dont see him failing much so far.Again lines are the KEY...USF was only +3 to Kansas who I happen to think is a tough win at home. Also USF beat them @ Rutger slast year and teh Knights were -2.5 pt favs ...why a year later on teh road with a wosre QB ar they -4? I am trying to say this team isnt as good as last years

Random comments:

Recap-

Rutgers

1- In my opinion they have played a ridiculously easily schedule and worse have had weak spreads. Which means they werent laying big wood against bad teams and were catching points to bad teams away. Yes, I do believe USF has played a slightily tougher schedule partially because they have traveled twice.I would say FIU and @UCF are better then Illinois and Ohio U in New Brunswick. Losing by 6 @ Kansas is probably tougher then winning by 5 @ UNC.2- Cant expect Mike Teel to make plays in the passing game. On top of which he loses another WR. So that gives you a one dimensonal offense and the defense can focus on stopping the run. If you lay points on the road IMO you need to be balanced offensively and this team is NOT. 3- How is Rutgers a team that was -2.5 pt favs last year at home now laying 4 on the road to th eteam that defeated them?? 4- As much as I respect how well the defense has played IMO the offenses have simply been overmatched. Also not just by RU but any school they travel to.USF-1- They dont have a running back that generates a running game. However unlike RU there OFFENSE is not one dimensional due to QB MAtt Grohe. You have to respect both facets of his game or he will beat you with one of them.2- Can Grohe continue to improve? Being a redshirt Frosh I believe so. I truly believe if you look at this game objectively the game should be a PK em. Remember that RU was dogged at UNC, that last year these teams were considered even to USF being skightily better. RU hasnt improved all that much( excpt if this defense is for real whuch going back to UNC is a ?) and while USF lost Andre Hall it switched from being dependent on him to dependent on Grohe a huge upgrade of Julmiste. Should be a great game and this is huge for RU they must prove they are for real. They have talent BUT no tests.....

Thursday Thoughts

Houston @ Pitt

Well the Astros are trying to make one of the most amazing comebacks ever. However they have to be running on fumes at this point. This weeked was highlighted by a Monday makeup game instead of an off day. Remember the played a huge 4 game set vs STL and got the sweep with the last game being a Sunday Nite and then had to fly to Philly....then to Pitt.

Oswalt's has incredible day splits 5-1 1.94ERA and is facing a team who hits just .254 in the day and avgs 4.1 runs. Houston doesnt hit that much in day games(but they pitch well3.7 runs) and vs LHP apprx 4.4 runs per. Gorzelanny is a Solid young SP I am somewhat concerned that he isnt 100% still since returning.

I think you have a couple teams with average offensive day splits. They have to be exhausted after the 15 inning affair last nite and then ahving to play @ 12:30...we know Houston is exhausted but postseason is a great motivator. I expect a pitchers duel and while The Astros are thin in the pen you can expect 7 or 8 here from Roy. It looks great to fade the Astros here but I cant...Roy Oswalt is usually at his best come August and September....this year hasnt been any different.

I think after 10 scoreless innings sometimes the offensive struggles carry over to teh next day.

Plays-
Under 4 -117 First 5 innings (2x) Under 8 -128 (1.5x) Pirates +1.5 RL +108 (1x)

Just added-

Under 8.5 -117 DET & TOR (3x)

Really based on the pitching matchups. Both guys throwing extremely well and a reasonable number here with 8.5. Tor hits well vsLHP but that seems to have faded as teh season wore on. First Foster behind the dish scared me but I noticed he had only two 8.5 totals all season and they both went under. Which is significant cause all his starts had 9 or higher totals thats why his runs per game is higher. He wasnt getting quality SP matchups to call...at least thats my theory. Still a game DET needs so as well...


Rockies +120 (2x)

Kim has actually faced LA five times this sasona nd four last year. In all but one start at the ned of last season did Kim fail to go at least 6 innings and allow 3 runs or less.....He does pitch better at home as well. Despite LA needing this win I still see a clear edge in SP despite Pennys success at Coors( 10-2 lifetime 2.51 vs Colorado).Penny struggled in the 2nd H outside a fewexcellent starts. He went from 10-2 2.91 Era to 6-7 with a 5.99 ERA and his BAA is 311 ! Fading Penny and might look at the over....

GL

Act II

BYU +7 -110 (2x) & Under 25.5 +107 BYU Team Total (1x)

Have to be somewhat concerned with John Beck's ankles but I think he could have played last week and it was precautionary day off. Also concernedwith Hobsb and Merrill apparently playing. Still I just dont get impressed by the TCU offense and to me Texas Tech gimmick offense isnt a defensive test. Beck threw for over 500 yards vs TCU last year . Now TCU gets an edge in preparation as well. Bottom line is there are resons to adjust this line I just felt -4 was where it should been...

Act III- MLB

Marlins -140(3x)

Not sure of where Nolacso is healthwise which is a minor concern. However as I stated in game 1 the Reds have struggled away and winning consecutive games. Lohse has lost 8 of 10 starts despite some good efforts. He is 0-5 away and with Cincy lineup being thin it will be even harder to get run support. Flat out just thought this line was to LOW.

Phillies -144 (4x) & Under 4.5 +108 (1x) First 5 Inn

Just not going to fade Leiber at this point of the season pitching a baig game. I know what he can do in AUG & SEPT as a NY fan. O'Connor seemsto lose gas in the 5thinning these days.

Mets -120 (now 4x from 3x)

Think NY has a huge edge in SP with this matchup and they need to avoid the sweep.

DBacks +128 (1.5x) & ARL +250(.5x)

Riding Batista who has been pitching well and fading SD on the road as well as Peavy.

Devil Rays +155 (2.5x) & ARL +229 (1.5x) & Over 4.5 -107 TB team (2x)

You have to be NUTS to back TB on the road with only 3 2nd H wins. Its the end of the year I have done well in building a bankroll with baseball so the value is worth the gamble. I see Howell pitching well since his return outside of a start at Tor who kills LHP while Byrd as struggled last 5 weeks. The key is Cle dropping 22 of 32 vs LHP and Howell is LH!

Under 4 +106 First 5 Innings Oakland (2x)

Zito vs Lackey with players rested. barry's usually good in LA and Lackey loves pitching vs Oakland though I am midly concerned he just faced them.


Looking @ Milw still, have a play on the NYY game but cant find it at the moment from earlier , and thing Auburn and played SC und 11.5pts

ACT III-

Under 11 NYY -116 (2x) & NYY under 6 -110 team (1x)

Noticed that NY was 4-16 over with 11 totals and 0-10 over at home with 11 totals. Cabrera was better on the road in the 1st H and switched form being better at home in the 2nd H. The big guy has some decent starts vs NY in his career mainly IMO cause he is overpowering. Rollin the dice...

Brewers +137 (1x)

Only cause Davis has won 5 of 6 starts in STL as a Brewer.

Indians +1.5 RL -130 (1.5x) forget this one

Was interested in KC before DET lost this afternoon.

Auburn -13 -110 (1.5x) & Under 11.5 -110 SC team total

The way the BYU game has started it makes it hard for me to take this game. I did say I would take Auburn if this was knocked down to -13 on Thusday but I always like the BYU play more just hated TCU getting its backs back. Basically I dont see how or why SC breaks 10 points.

GL

Wed Thoughts- Travel day for me


MLB

Diamondbacks +104 (4x) ARL -1.5 +178 (2x) Over 9 -109 (1.5x)

Vargas on the road vs Sanchez who has been hit hard past 2 starts. Look at Vargas on the road and he usually gets puts out a solid game. he has very solid day splits and I believe ARI despite dropping 8 of 9 day games , struggling on the road and in SF has won 9 of 11 Vargas day starts.

Didnt post it but played SFG last nite so rolling that money over here. Sanchez has decent day splits but mostaly as a reliever. If he ha s short outing you get into that SF pen which is a positive. Basically a Sanhez fade coupled with backing Vargas on a road / day start!

GL........Looking at South Florida on FRIDAY!

Tuesday Thoughts

First in response to chancedog's last comments yesterday. You know I say what I feel wrong or right. Thanks for bringing up the Damon SB comment though been thinking about that and forgot who I discussed it with. I honestly just felt that NY would run a bit more then Boston had and thought the jump from 19 to 25-30 wasnt a big deal. I just dont believe these age arguements. Hate hearing a guy is 34 , 37 and slowing down ...its BS. You take care of yourself and you will slow the aging process. Bonds is teh perefct example look at what he is doing at 42 and Clemens at 44. Bonds overall numbers arent awesome but take what he has done since August 1st. In 132 atbats 12hrs and 32 Rbis!(think 325BAA)..the key is being healthy and not battling injuries. I digress! With NE thats sort of my point with Gabriel this guy looked good in OAK at times , had a great preseason comes to NE and is lost in the shuffle. After 2.5 games he finally gets the ball. I would hope they continue to look for him liek they did in teh 2nd H. Good points about the no huddle and DEN being tired. I just think we have to see what injuries Cincy has to still deal with. They couldnt stop Parker w/o the LB's and Maroney is a BEAST. Also huge game for Cincy could we see a letdown in emotion and performance for this game. They wont say it but afer watching NE I am sure there is les
s excitement. Finally NE is +6 and Cle was +10....think about that? Line also states Cincy would be favored in NE?

College Football

Central Florida +6 +100 (5x) ML +214 (1.25x)

Show some patience before putting this in could run higher. You can easily get +7 -120 and +225 still waiting.

Again we have what in my opinion is an inflated line. I think I am very sound in understanding what a line should be. This game IMO with an unproven QB making his 1st conference road start and relying on a Frosh star RB is high. I am not saying SoMiss isnt better but it shouldnt be higher then -3 and probaly closer -2.

Why do I say this. First dont get wrapped up into this seasons first 3 games. Both teams played a shit school. USM played Southeastern Louisana while UCF hosted Nova. Cant claim to know much about either program but I would guess Nova is a better program. They both played @ Florida . neither team played well but SoMiss probably was more respectable. two things I take from that common opponent. First and very important is one team opened +23 and the other +20. Thats 3 point difference and basically means if Somiss faced UCF on a neutral field it would be -3 point favs. Linesmakers do not quickly adjust there lines, its a known fact! So they might tweak it up a point or two cause So Miss perfomred better ...so say -5 neutral field which if played at UCF mean So Miss would be just -2....typically a 3 point home field edge. Also last year these teams met in SoMiss as the Golden Eagles were 8.5 pt favs. Now they did blowout UCF but there are two things I see. First was UCF come out of nowhere last year so you can believe that there lines were generally undervaluing them. Except maybe here cause after winning 3 straight there was some talk about UCF going into this game. So if 8.5 was correct or maybe say it should have been -10 worst case what does that mean line wise if they played @ UCF? It means that So Miss would be -3 or -4 @ UCF. Now SoMiss lost its star QB Dustin Almond and now has some issues at RB with 2 guys quitting. So you would have to think So Miss has lost some strength. UCF basically returns there entire team from last year and there were young. So if anything that -3 or -4 becomes -2 or -3 in my eyes. Which is where I have said this line should be. Should be -2 and it is -6 you have to love when the BETTING PUBLIC 'BUYS' into a bad line and road chalk! Didnt the Browns have zero chance in teh NFLon SUnday or how about NCST.

Now lets talk FOOTBALL. UCF played last game a 24-17 lost to USF without its star RB who returns here. What has killed UCF in the early going is its pass defense. Both USF and FLA throw all day against the defense but didnt do that much in the running game. The running game has been the USM offense. So there is a good chance it will be slowed today forcing USM to throw the ball. This hasnt been a strong suit for them. So I like that USM probably cant exploit UCF defensive weakness and conversely UCF defense can probably slow USM offesnive weakness. USM has a good FG kicker which I see as a clear edge.

Again you have inexperienced players leading Southern Miss facing George O'Leary who is emphasizing conference play and has a players who played for the Conference Championship and in the Hawaii Bowl where they lost by 1 point. UCF has underperformed to a degree but we didnt expect much from FLA and despite being home dogs most expected them to beat South Fla but they didnt havethere star RB( was tied @ 10 after 3 Q).

I am sure I have more to say on this game but cant remember right now. Bottomline is I am comfortable with my assessment this is a INFLATED LINE. I wont be suprised to see UCF win tonite and I expect them to SU.


Act II MLB-

Marlins -169 (4x)

Little nervous about backing FLA after they looked so horrible in Philly. While D-Train has not faced Cincy since April when he was so-so he has dominanted them throughout his career. Obviously new faces in Cincy now but the key bats of Aurilia and Dunn I believe were something in the neighborhood of 2-22(think Dunn 0-9). The Reds have dropped 15 of 18 away(2-9 off a win) and start Belisle who has ben in the pen last year. I thought it was interesting Belisle started last April vs Willis in Fla and that line was -220. I also have noticed that Cincy was 0-6 in the 2nd H facing a LHP on the road. Despite just a 5-3 record at home Willis has been solid in the 2nd Half there. Only allowed more then 3 runs 1 time and has 6 straight with 3 or less.

Some supporting trends were FLA(9-1 L10 @ home) 14-3 L17(25-10 L35) at home vs team with a losing record. They are 23-9 L32 at home vs RHP and 18-5 L23 vs Central.

Under 4.5 -101 1st 5 Innings NYM & ATL (2x)

Little dicey backing Perez on the road but he was solid last time out in FLA. He also pitched a 9 inning shutout vs ATL already. I feel that Perez is usually tough for 4 or 5 innings before teams catch up to him or he just walks to many. Now ATL for the most part doesnt hit LHP all that well. Smoltz opposes NY and he has been so good at home since returning to the rotation in 2005. You never know what NY is showing up but I hope Smoltz continues to pitch like he last few. Liked the job he did in Coors last time out.

Cubbies +109 (1.5x) & ARL -1.5 +209 (1x)

I could look stupid fading MILW during a nice win streak but this would be a season high if they go it. What I saw at home was an underavlued club playing two bad road teams STL and SFG who both have tremendous pitching issues.The Brewer bats woke up and put up some nice runs but there pitching I thought failed them They faced two awful pens in STL and SFG. Now they travel to Chi who also stinks but not sure they should be a dog here. After all MILW is 25-50 Away! Thats one win out of every series basically!!Better they are only 5-11 away vs LHP this season. So while Villanueva has impressed he its still a small sample size. While Sean Marshall has looked like shit since his return he is still pitching for a spot in the 2006 rotation. They key is he is LHP and CHI seems to score when he pitches. MILW 16-36 L52 away

Cardinals -164 (3x)

There pen is AWFUL and they have cost me a bunch past week. However this is Cris Carpenter plain nad simple. The man has a 1.46 Home ERA! Woody Williams has been solid over the past 3 but struggled in a few starts last year vs STL his former team. Hopefully Carpeneter continues to dominant at home and teh bullpen si atking out of the equation. The under isnt a bad call here worst case might be 5-3 but thinking 4-2 I just worry how long Williams last cause SD pen hasnt been so good eiother lately. Both SP track records are so-so vs the opponent.

Rockies +110 (5x) & ARL +198(1x) & Over 9.5 -114 (4x)

Big play with a small reason. I dont like Maddux on the road especially in Coors with the ball flying. Thought this ws more of a PK game with Jennings who has pitched well at home this season. LAD 1-9 L9 off a win. Maddux 6-10 in 16 away starts and Jennings 8-6 at hoem with a 3.28 ERA. Maddux ERA is above 5 on the road with a 1.45 WHIP. The bats have been alive in Colorado for weeks now.

Now the AL

Under 3 runs KC team -131 (2x) & MIN -1.5 RL -151 (2x)

Basically its Johan at home versus a team tha I feel quit or is distracted with Bell's condition. In 4 of the past 5 at home vs KC he has allowed 0 or 1 runs. Perez has been hit hard in hi sonly 2 career starts vs Minny.

Over 5 -103 Tigers & Jays 1st 5 Innings(2x)

Bonderman has some issues at home . He is either real good orr eal bad very little inbewteen. Tor won 7 of 10 playing well of late. The trot out McGown who has failed as SP before aand is a question mark.

Tribe -148(2x)

Sabathia has been strong vs Chitown who is eliminated from the playoff hunt. They trut out Vazquez who has lost 8 straight starts.

NYY -214 (2x)

Not sure there is value here but no matter what lineup we have , my YANKS are loaded. Penn solid last time out but it was TB! He has struggled on teh road in his short MLB career like al young SP's do. Lidle generally has been solid at home outside of his last outing. Definetly a show me start for him with Moose and RJ hurt and Wright pitching well.

Parlay - Red Sox -194 & A's -138 (1.5x)

Team totals

Over 4 +127 Toronto (1x)

Over 4 -145 Colorado (1x)

Under 25.5 pts SoMiss +137(1x)

Thats it I think! GL

MLB Monday Thoughts

Yesteday I was distracted and did horrible in basbeall. Short on time but looking at this game since last nite.

Cubs + 190(4x) & 1st 5 Innings + 185 Cubs (2x)

This based on my feeling Arroyo is tired and doesnt have much left in his arm after a long season. My evidence is his last start vs Houston where he just lost it completely in the 5th and 6 th innings. Now since he has dominanted the Cubs this year I think we get a HIGH price(INFLATED). Miller has shown tremendous improvement past 2 starts and always seems to have good day splits. he has been thru a lot but still a 3.08 career ERA in the day.

Cincy has lost 23 of 31 during the day including 7 of 10 when Arroyo starts in the day.

The reds offense is real quiet lately scoring more then 4 runs just once in the past 10 games and hitting .215 against RHB. Miller has been weak against LHP but only faces 3 today. The reds lineup has POOR day splits while teh top of the Cubs lineup 1-5 has some impressive NUMBERS

Thats all I have time to say.......really like Chi here despite Arroyo's track record!

That is just the reflection of past few weeks. Amazing 5-4 defeat.

Rest of the day:

Thinking about-

Over 5 -108 team total White Sox

Mainly because I like the way they are swinging now facing up and down Cliff Lee. Lee allows 5.93 runs per start at home , 8 of teh past 10 Cle games have seen teh oppositions score at least 5 , 8 of Lee's last 10 starts vs Chi have seen the Sox score at least 5 runs ( not off him against the team). His last 5 home vs CHI have seen 11, 8, 5,5, and 14.

White Sox -114

Garlands last start scares me as I said he was slowly regressing after pitching so well for awhile. Now he has pitched well in Cleveland but the Tribe are playing better recently. Also Lee as I mentioned pitches better @ Chicago then versus Chi. Which opens the door for a 1st 5 Inning over as well.

Under 9.5 -110 in Boston

Looks attractive because Eddings behind the dish sees less then 8 run ns per start. While Wake is sound indoors with a 3.74 ERA though the roof could be open. The scare part is Wake struggling and Marcum not much more then a 5 inning guy with decnt home splits. Unlikely I touch this.

Under NY +100 and NY -149

Seem like strong plays to me. Wright pitching for a playoff spot in the rotation has thrown well lately. Has a sound track record against TB winning all 6 starts as a Yankee and pitched 2 excellent 6 inning games vs them in 2006. Seo has been real solid and lost an earlier mmeeting to Wright 1-0. Naturally under 1st 5 Inning as well sounds good. Maybe tyeam totals unders a s well.

Twins -210 or -1 run

KC appears to have quit IMO. 17-9 @ home vs LHP, .366 last 10 includes 4 wins vs LHP , and .317 at home vs LHP. Now DeLaRosa pitching well and pitched well against Santana. So thinking under or KC under 4 .

Two plays seem to easy in Philly and LAA...have to really look at those.

Liking Mets -161 with every start meaning something for Glavine. As well as Under 8.5 .

STL with Suppan is about the best way to back them now. Wells a fade on the road IMO. Th eunder 9 looks solid cause STL soft against LHP and Suppan tough at home...

Think Zona +152 is worth a shot maybe no Bonds or Durham and Gonzo out pitching Schidmtlately....under 4.5 SFG look senticing!

be back just a glimpse

Tonite's Card:

Over 5 -108 White Sox team total (2.5x)

Would really likely to play the Sox but just cant overlook how well the Tribe just played and how well they played against Chicago this year.

Yankees -149 (6x)

Under 10 +100 Tampa (2x)

Under 5.5 +105 1st 5 Inn (2x)

Under TB 4.5 -120 (1x)Under NYY -5.5 -104 (1x)team totals

Twins -210 (2x)

Under 9.5 +100 Twins (3x)

Under 4 -116 KC team total (1x)

LAA -143 (2x)

A's -139 (2x)

NL

NYM -157 (now4x)

Under 8.5 -107 Wash(4x)

STL -136 (6x)

Under 9 +100 STL(2x)

DBacks +153 (1.5x)

GL

NFL

Saints +4.5 -110 (4x) Saints ML +190 (1.5x)

For me I ahve talked enxtensivly about this game. We hear about the ATL rushing game but I still see only 20 and 14 on the scoreboard. Great they can run the ball because of missed FG's , poor 3rd dwon conversion % , and still a questionable runng game the points havent come. Morten Andersen is a legend but should he be kicking after 2 years off and now 46. Oh and he wasnt in camp with anyone and recently called NO to see if he could retire a Saint. Odd situation.

ATL just seems like the same ole Dirty Birds to me. Vick hasnt don eanything to quiet the criticism IMO failing to throw for a 1st down on 3rd down in 5 2nd Half attempts. I mention that cause twice in the 2nd H scoring 1 TD. Teams are adjusting and while NO isnt TB or CAR I still think its a decent unit. Was the previous defenses responsible for ATL lack of points or was it the offense itself.

NO is a completely new team with a new HC. They traded(not literally) Brees for Brooks, they have Deuce and Bush instead of Smith and Stecker. Horn is healthy again this is NOT The 2005 version. Which still gave ATL headaches 3 point home loss aided by 2 defensive scores by ATL. A 3 pt Half defecit in ATL but NO failed to make any 2nd H plays and lost by DD's.

The feel good story is nice but wares off quickly. I see a greatly improved NO team that was always talented....who saw them winning only 3 games?? The talent was there. I dont see 2006 ATL vastily different then 2005 ATL especially if Abraham is OUT.

Thought this line should have been closer to -2 then -4 so some value. Lots to say and little time......

earlier this week I played Over 40.5 -104 (3x) but I will hedge that with Under 45-110(4x)...1 extra unit on the u45!

BTW I truly believe in extremes in life. LAst year everything bounced against NO to even the scales and regain balance you would need alot to go right for them this year. That's just my take on life....which backs my game handicapping....

Sunday Nite TV games (MLB & NFL)


StLouis Cardinals +183 (5x) & +1.5 RL -135 (2x)

Weaver is 4-1 away (4-3team) 3.96 ERA away facing Clemens 3-3 (4-6) 2.70ERA. Now IMO Clemens has struggled past 2 starts or labored might be the word.....5 innings and 100 pithces followed by 107 pitches and 6 innings and now the old guy is trying to give something to the Houston fans vby volunterringto pitch the home finale on 3 days rest. With the short rtest and injury problems yo have to think you are payinga premiun for his last home start and getting a less tehn 100% Rocket in return.

he is only 5-5 in 10 starts versus StL but 4-2 at home. In 6 home starts he lasted only 35 innings and lets face it both pens have been a mess. Its scary to think Weaver has the better chance of pitching deeper into the game. On July 8th of this season Clemens faced Anthony Reyes laying only -127!!! See the adjustment for this last game BS. Reyes is not 60 cents better then Weaver and problem isnt better on the road then Weaver.

Now I will aadmit since that day STL has stunk on the road something like 7-23 L30 away but still quite an adjustment. When has STL ever been this big a DOG? Once this year above 175 and twice ast 3 seasons!

One crazy trend is STL losing late in games. They have lost 4 in a row all in the 8th or 9th innings and dropped 5 of 6(also in the 9th)...4 1run losses!!

Against RHP Hou only 56-63(.255) while StL 58-41(.272BA)

All season Weaver has been clearly better away even as an Angel 4.37ERA both teams.

Clemens usually struggles to get run support as well....

Played based heavily on price.

Broncos +7 -110 (6x) ML +252 (.75x) Under 38-104 (2x)

We all understand how Brady wasnt this game but he is lacking playmakers in the receiving game. As well as probably getting his toughest defense.

I just dont see how two teams basically equal and use last years spreda to figure that out...3 points on a home field mean PK on a neutral usually....

So what has changed that NE is clearly 3 or 4 points better on a neutral field. I dont see what has.

As I said Denver has yet to allow a TD on defense and is tested playing 2 solid defenses already...yes the STL defense is solid!

Expect a close game that if NE doesnt get the breaks will struggle to win...

MLB on Football Sunday

Just starting now-

Over 9 +100 Wash (2units) & Over 5 1st 5 Innings(2x)

Orioles -104 (2x)

Reds -148 (2x)

working on the rest-

Marlins +143 (1.5x) , 1st 5 Inn Marlins +123 (1x) & Under 5 +105 First 5 Inn (2x)

Giants +118 (2x)

Under 10 -109 Texas (3x) & Under 1st 5 Inn 5.5 +102(2x)

White Sox -177(3.5x)

Under 9.5 -105 KC (3x)

Over 10 -120 Col (2.5x)

A's -127 (2x)

DBAcks +142 (1x)