NFL::
With each game it just gets harder and harder to decipher. The injury reports and players lost to injury have reached ridiculous levels IMO.
Balt @ Miami :
- We know Miami is still winless and that should keep them motivated. They are having the 72 Phins in attendance and there may be some cermony for theer 35th anniversary. Not sure but they will be attendance...is this extra motivation ? Truth is who knows these days. I would think some guys would want to shinein front of the veterans but you have Joey Porter say things why would I care I wasnt even born in 72....
- While Miami is decimated by injuries the Ravens are not far behind. The defense should be w/o both starting CBs in Rolle and McAllsiter. Alot of garbage is out there about the Ravens past 2 games. However I hardly read how Balt played last week w/o both it starting CB's. That is pretty signifcant to me when your now looking at your 3,4,5 corners as your starters...Also Ngata was hurt early last week but did return. I doubt he is near 100% , Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs were both listed as questionable but expected to play. Lewis with back issues and Suggs with the FLU. Heap is still out and so is Wilcox probably( Sypnieski starts?). At WR Clayton left the team for personal reasons midweek and I am unsure of his status. Demetirus Williams has been out a few weeks giving Devard Darling some chances.
- Both teams have terrible ATS trends in this matchup but as bad as Miami's are the Ravens could be worse. The Ravens have looked terrible on the road and sport only a 9-7 win @ SF but the ast two away games @ SD and @ Pitt were disgusting!! On the flip though Miami has been awful its past 2 games as well. My belief is though you cant expect them to win on the road at this point.
- Miami's defense is poor but the 1st 31 points allowed last week came on drives that consisted of 161 yds( 1 fumble return for a TD. Lets see what this weather brings and Lemon seems to move the offense much better at this point...
(Lean Miami +3.5 depending on weather Over 37)
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Thursday NBA
Spurs @ LAL - There gonna delay the line till they feel like Duncan is again announced OUT. Believe his return date was pushed back to Saturday but books want to be cautious with a player wgo is worth 5 or 6 pointsin a spread.
Would guess this game opens -5 or -5.5. They were small dog @ GSW and were never in that game after winning two games ta home. I really look @ SA and think what an average team w/o TD. Especially if Parker is playing less then 100%(19 for 50 past 3 ). Anyway LAL beat GSW by DDs as 3 pt favs recently.....anything less then -5 would be to low IMO....higher then 6.5 would probably be to high
Wash @ Miami : Never do I enjoy playing teams returning from West Coast swings. Thye did have 2 days rest after the long trip and ay have some momentum after finishing uo with 2 wins. I thought we would see a high 190s total and lean Under 204.
Even though Wash is uptempo they are missing a key cog in the engine and teams have slowly adjusted to that making other players beat them. Not sure I believe in Miami just yet and like how Wash is playing....
No thoughts on CBB yet...
Spurs @ LAL - There gonna delay the line till they feel like Duncan is again announced OUT. Believe his return date was pushed back to Saturday but books want to be cautious with a player wgo is worth 5 or 6 pointsin a spread.
Would guess this game opens -5 or -5.5. They were small dog @ GSW and were never in that game after winning two games ta home. I really look @ SA and think what an average team w/o TD. Especially if Parker is playing less then 100%(19 for 50 past 3 ). Anyway LAL beat GSW by DDs as 3 pt favs recently.....anything less then -5 would be to low IMO....higher then 6.5 would probably be to high
Wash @ Miami : Never do I enjoy playing teams returning from West Coast swings. Thye did have 2 days rest after the long trip and ay have some momentum after finishing uo with 2 wins. I thought we would see a high 190s total and lean Under 204.
Even though Wash is uptempo they are missing a key cog in the engine and teams have slowly adjusted to that making other players beat them. Not sure I believe in Miami just yet and like how Wash is playing....
No thoughts on CBB yet...
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
NCAAB Updated Thoughts :
Xavier -19 / -19.5 : With six players scoring DD's there is simple to much offense here. The Bearcats I suspect will score bewteen 54 and 60 points. For Xavier due to a slow 2nd H they scored only 77 vs Creighton. Again I think they crack 80 here and depending on how badly they want to destroy Cincy may score 90. So my estimate is 8-57 with a 138 total I feel its dead on. Play : Xavier
Penn State -13 : The Princeton offense has struggled and is coming off a 32 pt performance at IMPROVING Evansville. Expecting them to score in the very low 50's. I had thought this line would be -14 to -15 so somewhat light in my opinion. However you never know how teams will react to playing Princeton's style of game. Truth is Princeton is terrible but right now just a 1 pt discount isnt enough for me to trust Penn State laying a heavy number. With a 119 total and expecting mid 60's again making a tight total thinking 66-52....No play yet but leaning towards Penn State ...
Wiksy -14 : Personally I am not a fan of really laying big numbers on the road. However MILW has looked terrible for most of the year. It's just tough to get a red on Wisky. Sure they are significantly better but have never been the same when they travel....I think the line is dead on. I am interested in the Total 139 though. Hard press to see how the home squad doesnt crack 63 points here....Play : Over 139
Vandy @ DePaul : Simply not feeling this game.Wonder if Depaul can have the second H at Kansas carry over here?? Suprised at the 155 total so while I lean UNDER I am passing....
Maryland -8 : Thought we would see at least 10 here. After all Ohio U was catching 5 @ Temple and despite some struggles I would think Maryland is more then a few points better then Temple. Not to mention they just laid 6 to BC. So while I dont trust Maryland enough to lay 8 points , I also dont want to back Ohio U at # I feel is a few points short. This may seem silly but I feel Terps win bewteen 5 and 11 points here. I do feel that the total is way to high. This game will probably be played in the 70's....the game @ Temple saw a Ton of FTs , the last Terps game so 112 2nd H points ...Play : 1st H under 71.5
BC -4 : BC has suprised with there play only losing an OT game vs providence. They did start slow but since the comeback vs RI they have played well 5 straight times vs decent opponents. They are off abig win @ Maryland on Sunday. Concerning for Umass is there terrible 1st H @ NIowa and the game @ IUPUI. Think the win @ Cuse was huge and the fact they were only +7.5 and won SU makes me feel like 4 here is to much and representative of the Terps upset. Though the total would be 155 so while I missed the better # still like the over cause I expect a tight game that nears or betterst the 80s.Play : UMass +4 / Over 155
Colorado -5 : Tough call here. The Buffs have slowly improved BUT NO has won some tough road games. Typically low scoring and possession games at home for CU I would expect one low scoring Half but am not taking any total yet. Thinking about the Dog cause not sure I trust COL laying points yet....
Santa Clara -6 : Thinking this shpuld be 4 but Pacifics embarrassing loss to Pepperdine is inflating it. What has SC really done besides the upset to Utah? They lost to Nevada and Utah State as expected while beating a bunch of bad teams like EWash and Sac State. Play ; Pacific +6
Nevada -8.5 : thinikng about the Under here with SD poised to scoe in teh high 50's..SD has done well keeping it close and think this game is game is within a bucket of the spread....Play : Under 133
Port St -7.5 : Really no interest but the total seems high.....
GL
Xavier -19 / -19.5 : With six players scoring DD's there is simple to much offense here. The Bearcats I suspect will score bewteen 54 and 60 points. For Xavier due to a slow 2nd H they scored only 77 vs Creighton. Again I think they crack 80 here and depending on how badly they want to destroy Cincy may score 90. So my estimate is 8-57 with a 138 total I feel its dead on. Play : Xavier
Penn State -13 : The Princeton offense has struggled and is coming off a 32 pt performance at IMPROVING Evansville. Expecting them to score in the very low 50's. I had thought this line would be -14 to -15 so somewhat light in my opinion. However you never know how teams will react to playing Princeton's style of game. Truth is Princeton is terrible but right now just a 1 pt discount isnt enough for me to trust Penn State laying a heavy number. With a 119 total and expecting mid 60's again making a tight total thinking 66-52....No play yet but leaning towards Penn State ...
Wiksy -14 : Personally I am not a fan of really laying big numbers on the road. However MILW has looked terrible for most of the year. It's just tough to get a red on Wisky. Sure they are significantly better but have never been the same when they travel....I think the line is dead on. I am interested in the Total 139 though. Hard press to see how the home squad doesnt crack 63 points here....Play : Over 139
Vandy @ DePaul : Simply not feeling this game.Wonder if Depaul can have the second H at Kansas carry over here?? Suprised at the 155 total so while I lean UNDER I am passing....
Maryland -8 : Thought we would see at least 10 here. After all Ohio U was catching 5 @ Temple and despite some struggles I would think Maryland is more then a few points better then Temple. Not to mention they just laid 6 to BC. So while I dont trust Maryland enough to lay 8 points , I also dont want to back Ohio U at # I feel is a few points short. This may seem silly but I feel Terps win bewteen 5 and 11 points here. I do feel that the total is way to high. This game will probably be played in the 70's....the game @ Temple saw a Ton of FTs , the last Terps game so 112 2nd H points ...Play : 1st H under 71.5
BC -4 : BC has suprised with there play only losing an OT game vs providence. They did start slow but since the comeback vs RI they have played well 5 straight times vs decent opponents. They are off abig win @ Maryland on Sunday. Concerning for Umass is there terrible 1st H @ NIowa and the game @ IUPUI. Think the win @ Cuse was huge and the fact they were only +7.5 and won SU makes me feel like 4 here is to much and representative of the Terps upset. Though the total would be 155 so while I missed the better # still like the over cause I expect a tight game that nears or betterst the 80s.Play : UMass +4 / Over 155
Colorado -5 : Tough call here. The Buffs have slowly improved BUT NO has won some tough road games. Typically low scoring and possession games at home for CU I would expect one low scoring Half but am not taking any total yet. Thinking about the Dog cause not sure I trust COL laying points yet....
Santa Clara -6 : Thinking this shpuld be 4 but Pacifics embarrassing loss to Pepperdine is inflating it. What has SC really done besides the upset to Utah? They lost to Nevada and Utah State as expected while beating a bunch of bad teams like EWash and Sac State. Play ; Pacific +6
Nevada -8.5 : thinikng about the Under here with SD poised to scoe in teh high 50's..SD has done well keeping it close and think this game is game is within a bucket of the spread....Play : Under 133
Port St -7.5 : Really no interest but the total seems high.....
GL
Wed NBA:
Mavs @ Tor - Clearly a terrible spot for Toronto after the Ford injury. However lets not forget they have capable replacements. They did also lose Kapano in the 1st Half and his status is unknown. Bargnani returned byt played just 14 minutes and you would wonder about his effectiveness in a B2B. While I hate the situation Dallas really hasnt shown me enough vs Utah and NYK to think the ship is righted.
Minny @ Philly - Suprised to see higher then -6.5 here. Philly is playing better but still rate below ATL and Wash. I say that cause of the recent meetings bewteen the three and the fact Minny was +9 versus both. What scares me in backing Minny is there lack of success in B2B spots. Looking at those 4 spots this year I didnt see any difference occuring in the 1st two sets of B2B's. In the 3rd set I saw a huge droppoff in the 2nd H. They led ATL by 18 at home after a close lose in Denver but wound up losing by 7(49-24). The lasy B2B set saw a 4th Q collapse at home vs SA and then traveling to Memphis they NEVER showed up and got smoked!! Here I thought Minny played fairly well which leads me to believe they can duplicate that effort for at least a HALF. However concerned about how little the bench was used and how many minutes (38+) four of the 5 starters played. Walker returned playing only 8 minutes so check his status come Wed and Buckner DNP. Thing is no one outside of Smith could make a bucket. So while the Wolves look interesting for now I have to say NO. The total seems pretty tight maybe a tad low....you have to figure the new look Sixers get near 100...
LAC @ Charlotte - The way Charlotte is playing there is no way I could lay 6 points with them. They struggled vs Cle without James and in Hughes 1st game back. Tough to back LAC with the backcourt they are starting. Dont like either offense and UND 186 is enticing cause we should see high 80's or low 90's. LAC is 6-0 lifetime vs Charlotte
Chi @ Indy - have to see what was the cataylyst for the Bulls offense tonight. If it was more there doing then playing uptempo vs Seattle I like the over. With Some heavy minutes and banged up Pacers I really liked +3.5 with Chi but you will be hard pressed to find that tmrw and just might go ML.....
Sac @ Boston - Big spreads tend to be DOGS or PASS...think Sac will struggle on offense across the coast in Boston .
Seattle @ NYK - Hard to select SEA on the road and lay pts with NY. Thought we would see more like -3.5 though...sit back and watch...could be run N gun.....
Det @ Hou - Lets see TMac is Hurt and questionable , DET is on fore of late and 5-0 ATS in backends of B2Bs. Curious at the line but thinking why fade DET??
Orl @ Milw - While I see both teams in a funk Milw really has some negatives working against them. Namely returning Home after a long Western trip a typical fade spot for me AND they had travel issues returning to Milw which made Tues appear to be a huge travel day with flights diverted and buses thrown in the mix. Then you womder what type of fan support will be around. Milw is in a terrible funk....thinking FADE MILW!!!
NO @ Denver - Need Injury updates for Mo Pete and Peja.
GSW @ Portland - Blazers OFF a HUGE win in Utah w/o Aldridge. Seems like a prime letdown spot but they have played 4 straight good games and GSW hasnt done well in B2B yet. Not happy with GSW level of play past few and they still are taking yo many threes and not hitting enough...thinking home doggie might be attractive......OVER
Utah @ Suns - Utah has been terrible you wonder though did they hit bottom in a look ahead spot? SUns have played consecutive terrible games. Would lay 6 here but not more cayse UTAH is that terrible on B2Bs . Ani higher and Utah is ebtertained and again lots of points should be scored
Mavs @ Tor - Clearly a terrible spot for Toronto after the Ford injury. However lets not forget they have capable replacements. They did also lose Kapano in the 1st Half and his status is unknown. Bargnani returned byt played just 14 minutes and you would wonder about his effectiveness in a B2B. While I hate the situation Dallas really hasnt shown me enough vs Utah and NYK to think the ship is righted.
Minny @ Philly - Suprised to see higher then -6.5 here. Philly is playing better but still rate below ATL and Wash. I say that cause of the recent meetings bewteen the three and the fact Minny was +9 versus both. What scares me in backing Minny is there lack of success in B2B spots. Looking at those 4 spots this year I didnt see any difference occuring in the 1st two sets of B2B's. In the 3rd set I saw a huge droppoff in the 2nd H. They led ATL by 18 at home after a close lose in Denver but wound up losing by 7(49-24). The lasy B2B set saw a 4th Q collapse at home vs SA and then traveling to Memphis they NEVER showed up and got smoked!! Here I thought Minny played fairly well which leads me to believe they can duplicate that effort for at least a HALF. However concerned about how little the bench was used and how many minutes (38+) four of the 5 starters played. Walker returned playing only 8 minutes so check his status come Wed and Buckner DNP. Thing is no one outside of Smith could make a bucket. So while the Wolves look interesting for now I have to say NO. The total seems pretty tight maybe a tad low....you have to figure the new look Sixers get near 100...
LAC @ Charlotte - The way Charlotte is playing there is no way I could lay 6 points with them. They struggled vs Cle without James and in Hughes 1st game back. Tough to back LAC with the backcourt they are starting. Dont like either offense and UND 186 is enticing cause we should see high 80's or low 90's. LAC is 6-0 lifetime vs Charlotte
Chi @ Indy - have to see what was the cataylyst for the Bulls offense tonight. If it was more there doing then playing uptempo vs Seattle I like the over. With Some heavy minutes and banged up Pacers I really liked +3.5 with Chi but you will be hard pressed to find that tmrw and just might go ML.....
Sac @ Boston - Big spreads tend to be DOGS or PASS...think Sac will struggle on offense across the coast in Boston .
Seattle @ NYK - Hard to select SEA on the road and lay pts with NY. Thought we would see more like -3.5 though...sit back and watch...could be run N gun.....
Det @ Hou - Lets see TMac is Hurt and questionable , DET is on fore of late and 5-0 ATS in backends of B2Bs. Curious at the line but thinking why fade DET??
Orl @ Milw - While I see both teams in a funk Milw really has some negatives working against them. Namely returning Home after a long Western trip a typical fade spot for me AND they had travel issues returning to Milw which made Tues appear to be a huge travel day with flights diverted and buses thrown in the mix. Then you womder what type of fan support will be around. Milw is in a terrible funk....thinking FADE MILW!!!
NO @ Denver - Need Injury updates for Mo Pete and Peja.
GSW @ Portland - Blazers OFF a HUGE win in Utah w/o Aldridge. Seems like a prime letdown spot but they have played 4 straight good games and GSW hasnt done well in B2B yet. Not happy with GSW level of play past few and they still are taking yo many threes and not hitting enough...thinking home doggie might be attractive......OVER
Utah @ Suns - Utah has been terrible you wonder though did they hit bottom in a look ahead spot? SUns have played consecutive terrible games. Would lay 6 here but not more cayse UTAH is that terrible on B2Bs . Ani higher and Utah is ebtertained and again lots of points should be scored
Thursday NFL Action :
Denver travels to Houston :
The injuries appear to be on the offensive side. Stokely was limited on Sunday and while some more rest will be helpful its still a short turnaround. You would expect the most out of him in the 1st Half. On the Texan side you will have Rosenfals at QB again and with Green and Dayne OUT , the featured back will be Darius Walker. Henry appera sto lost his featured back role to Selvin Young but that makes 3 capable backs with Young , Henry and Hall.
With Rosenfals at QB the pass offense drops slightily from 7.8 YPA to 7.1 YPA and in about half the plays he has only 2 less turnovers then Schaub. Technically he is 2-0 as a starter winning @ Oak and home vs TB but also came in very early vs Tenny twice and lost both those games.
On the road DEN offense has struggled some : 20 @ Oak (292yds) , 34 @ Chi (430yds) (highest output) , 27 @ KC but a defensive TD (327yds) , 7 @ Det w/ Cutler injured (303 yds), 20 @ Indy (354 yds) and 15 @ Buffalo(470 yds).
They have scored 20 + in each of the past 5 games actually 27 + in four of the five. However they faced a banged up KC twice , Tenny without Sir Haynesworth , Oak and Chi. In 6 awaygames they have allowed 34+ in four of them with 14 and 11 vs Buffalo and KC both inept offenses. The strange part is DEN allowing ONLY 260 yds of offense past 3 BUT 26 pts per. Partly to blame is Hester 's 2 kick returns.
At home only 2 of the 6 opponents have scored 20 + pts..Indy and Tenny...the rest 19 or less...
Now remember that Houston is w/o its 2 featured backs. Last week they scored a somewhat bogus 28 pts. They had a 97 yd kick return to open the 2nd H and two short drives of 20 yds for scores. In all 209 yds passing on 36 attempts is below avg ..and they ran it 25 times for 72 yds. Naturally DEN defense is NOT near the same caliber as TB's. However it has shown improvement. The RUN defense and naturally the game dictates it to a degree they have allowed 3 YPC , 3.5 , 4.3 , 4.4 and 1 YPC last 5 games!! Much better then earlier in the season.
Tough to NOT lean DEN here however they have struggled on the road while Hous has lost only tiwce at home. It will be interesting to see how Texan offense performs.
Despite all of DENVER's overs @ 47 this is there highest total. I think we see a 23-20 DEN win here and like the under 47 and lean DENVER......
Houston allows 3.9 YPC at home and Den allows only 5.9 YPA . Denver has shored up there run defense and is facing a 3rd stringer now. Basically w/o the aide of short fields I think both teams will have to work for there points.
UNDER 47
Bronocs +1 LEAN
Denver travels to Houston :
The injuries appear to be on the offensive side. Stokely was limited on Sunday and while some more rest will be helpful its still a short turnaround. You would expect the most out of him in the 1st Half. On the Texan side you will have Rosenfals at QB again and with Green and Dayne OUT , the featured back will be Darius Walker. Henry appera sto lost his featured back role to Selvin Young but that makes 3 capable backs with Young , Henry and Hall.
With Rosenfals at QB the pass offense drops slightily from 7.8 YPA to 7.1 YPA and in about half the plays he has only 2 less turnovers then Schaub. Technically he is 2-0 as a starter winning @ Oak and home vs TB but also came in very early vs Tenny twice and lost both those games.
On the road DEN offense has struggled some : 20 @ Oak (292yds) , 34 @ Chi (430yds) (highest output) , 27 @ KC but a defensive TD (327yds) , 7 @ Det w/ Cutler injured (303 yds), 20 @ Indy (354 yds) and 15 @ Buffalo(470 yds).
They have scored 20 + in each of the past 5 games actually 27 + in four of the five. However they faced a banged up KC twice , Tenny without Sir Haynesworth , Oak and Chi. In 6 awaygames they have allowed 34+ in four of them with 14 and 11 vs Buffalo and KC both inept offenses. The strange part is DEN allowing ONLY 260 yds of offense past 3 BUT 26 pts per. Partly to blame is Hester 's 2 kick returns.
At home only 2 of the 6 opponents have scored 20 + pts..Indy and Tenny...the rest 19 or less...
Now remember that Houston is w/o its 2 featured backs. Last week they scored a somewhat bogus 28 pts. They had a 97 yd kick return to open the 2nd H and two short drives of 20 yds for scores. In all 209 yds passing on 36 attempts is below avg ..and they ran it 25 times for 72 yds. Naturally DEN defense is NOT near the same caliber as TB's. However it has shown improvement. The RUN defense and naturally the game dictates it to a degree they have allowed 3 YPC , 3.5 , 4.3 , 4.4 and 1 YPC last 5 games!! Much better then earlier in the season.
Tough to NOT lean DEN here however they have struggled on the road while Hous has lost only tiwce at home. It will be interesting to see how Texan offense performs.
Despite all of DENVER's overs @ 47 this is there highest total. I think we see a 23-20 DEN win here and like the under 47 and lean DENVER......
Houston allows 3.9 YPC at home and Den allows only 5.9 YPA . Denver has shored up there run defense and is facing a 3rd stringer now. Basically w/o the aide of short fields I think both teams will have to work for there points.
UNDER 47
Bronocs +1 LEAN
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
NCAAB :
Bradley -135 ML
Evansville +13.5
Over 131 Evansville/ Valpo
So.ILL 1st H -2.5
Under 134 UCF / ULL
Parlay : Panthers ML (NHL) , Bradley ML , Grizzlies +5.5 , and over 204.5 Memphis / Det
NBA:
Over 196 Wash
Leans(waiting to see 1st H ):
Tor / Und
Wash (strong lean)
NJN / Und
NHL:
Panthers -120
Lean :
Over 6 +110 TB
Bradley -135 ML
Evansville +13.5
Over 131 Evansville/ Valpo
So.ILL 1st H -2.5
Under 134 UCF / ULL
Parlay : Panthers ML (NHL) , Bradley ML , Grizzlies +5.5 , and over 204.5 Memphis / Det
NBA:
Over 196 Wash
Leans(waiting to see 1st H ):
Tor / Und
Wash (strong lean)
NJN / Und
NHL:
Panthers -120
Lean :
Over 6 +110 TB
NCAAB Thoughts :
7 PM : Bradley @ Wright State :
Wright State fresh off its upset of Butler while Bradley led most of the way vs Mich State at home before falling late by 5 points. Looking at the Wright State UPSET I think it was more a matter of Butler just not being able to hit a shot. A cose game throughout Butler lead 40-33 with 9 to play. They lost 43-42 so they played great defense but the unimaginable happened as they scored just to points in the final 9 + minutes!! Now you have to remember that Butler also struggled vs DET who played a zone vs them. The key there was the fact that freshman Matt Howard had 20 points. Playing Wright State he managed 5. SO with a cold perimeter game how does Butler score and obviously they dont. Plus Butler has played a fairy tough schedule for a mid major and was off a home win vs Ohio State , traveled to Det and Thursday for a tough game and were turning around on at for another tough road spot. They lost by 1 point cause they couldnt make a bucket for 9 minutes!!!
So facing Bradley they will have a tougher time like vs Valpo cause they have multiple shooters to contend with. Really Butler is over reliant on Green and Graves. What killed Bradley vs Mich State was the offensive rebounds for State..20 or 21!! They missed 38 shots from the floor and had 20 off boards!! Thats way to many second possessions to overcome. Wright State two forwards go 6'7 and 6'8 avg 5 and 6 boards a piece. This should not happen again.
Wright State is playing in a short span its 3rd tough opponent 12/6 Valpo , 12/8 Butler and here vs Bradley. Luckily they havent traveled. However Bradley has been off since 12/4 . Much better situational spot for the visitors.
Also how do we 'cap' the fact that Bradley SMOKED Wright State last season. True it was last year and home for Bradley. However it was a complete blowout and I will agree both teams have much beter performances at home. Initially I thought we would see -2 here but after further research the correct opening number was -1.5 . It was dead on IMO.
Bottomline is I feel Bradley is the better team , with more depth , and better rest off a tough loss rather a 'lucky' win. Expect a close game that Bradley wins by 4-6 points. They already smoked Loyola Chicago away...
Not crazy about the total cause these teams are so 3 pt orientated. I was suprised at how the number was though....maybe 1st H under and then 2nd H over ??
ULL @ UCF :
Really dont have much on this game. Had expected 9.5 to 11.5 we opened around 11.5 / 12 now moved to -13. I would expect an UND 135 though. Think 72-58.....
Evansville @ Valpo :
Valpo now a member of the Horizon League is coming off consecutive road conference wins. Now they come home and faving what appears to be an approving Evansville squad. These teams both played Ball State and Austin Peay with the same results..WINS!
The Crusaders hosted Ball State and won by 13 at home. The difference was clearly Ball State missing all its 3 pointers. They fell behind early by DDs and rallied to cut it to4 in the 2nd H before fading again. ( 0-16 vs 13-31 from 3pt land)
In simple terms I have Evansville being slightily better then Ball State by a couple of points. Which ,eans I had this game at -10.5 again where it opened but has since moved.Evansville top 4 scorers all shot the 3 well and combine for about 40%.
Also they both played AP. The Aces played them at home winning by 10 and I would say that spread wise that AP and Evansvile are equal..a PK on neutral court. Where AP was a PK vs Valpo on a neutral court and was beat fairly easily...would think since Valpo is better then expected they really are about 5.5 points on a neutral court...
Last year Evansville did beat Valpo at home. However Evansville did lose alot of key players which has been partly erased by Ely's emergence.
While the egg they dropped at Buffalo scares me I think they can keep this under double digits as Valpo is better suited in an underdog role the big chalk IMO...
Real suprised the total opened below 135 cause Evansville has played alot of slow paced teams in Samford , Princeton and Butler but when they played a SE Mizzou State the game saw 165 pts!
Would be shocked if Valpo didnt score 70+ here...and think Evansville should crack 60...worse case...
StMarys @ So ILL :
I expected this to come out -3.5 and some places it opened -3.5 but now 4.5. This seems like a tough spot for STM as they are newly in teh top 25 and traveling for there 1st true road game and quite a distance as well. They struggled vs SDST on a neutral court before the Aztecs faded late.
So. Ill is only 80-4 at HOme past few years. Yes , they did lose to Indiana this season at home but the Hoosiers seem to be a legit Top 10 or Top 15 squad. DJ White and Eric Gordon are a difficult duo. Losses vs USC on a neutral court and @ Charlotte were due to offensive woes but these are tough games. Especially when So.Ill started so well and was laying decent chalk vs these opponents.
They were favored by 4 vs Indy , @ Charlotte and vs USC on a nuetral court. Now they are the same number at home vs StMary. What better time for Falker to get going then against a team he has had success as SoILL has won the past 2 seasons!
Really liked this down at -3 just not as sure now....think SoIll breaks there funk....
Sac St @ Oregon :
Didnt know that Hairston would be a gametime call and that Longmire would also probably miss. Why get involved....
Looking at :
Bradley -2 / ML
Under 135.5 ULL
Evansville +12
Over 131 Evansville
StMarys -4.5 maybe 1st H...
GL
7 PM : Bradley @ Wright State :
Wright State fresh off its upset of Butler while Bradley led most of the way vs Mich State at home before falling late by 5 points. Looking at the Wright State UPSET I think it was more a matter of Butler just not being able to hit a shot. A cose game throughout Butler lead 40-33 with 9 to play. They lost 43-42 so they played great defense but the unimaginable happened as they scored just to points in the final 9 + minutes!! Now you have to remember that Butler also struggled vs DET who played a zone vs them. The key there was the fact that freshman Matt Howard had 20 points. Playing Wright State he managed 5. SO with a cold perimeter game how does Butler score and obviously they dont. Plus Butler has played a fairy tough schedule for a mid major and was off a home win vs Ohio State , traveled to Det and Thursday for a tough game and were turning around on at for another tough road spot. They lost by 1 point cause they couldnt make a bucket for 9 minutes!!!
So facing Bradley they will have a tougher time like vs Valpo cause they have multiple shooters to contend with. Really Butler is over reliant on Green and Graves. What killed Bradley vs Mich State was the offensive rebounds for State..20 or 21!! They missed 38 shots from the floor and had 20 off boards!! Thats way to many second possessions to overcome. Wright State two forwards go 6'7 and 6'8 avg 5 and 6 boards a piece. This should not happen again.
Wright State is playing in a short span its 3rd tough opponent 12/6 Valpo , 12/8 Butler and here vs Bradley. Luckily they havent traveled. However Bradley has been off since 12/4 . Much better situational spot for the visitors.
Also how do we 'cap' the fact that Bradley SMOKED Wright State last season. True it was last year and home for Bradley. However it was a complete blowout and I will agree both teams have much beter performances at home. Initially I thought we would see -2 here but after further research the correct opening number was -1.5 . It was dead on IMO.
Bottomline is I feel Bradley is the better team , with more depth , and better rest off a tough loss rather a 'lucky' win. Expect a close game that Bradley wins by 4-6 points. They already smoked Loyola Chicago away...
Not crazy about the total cause these teams are so 3 pt orientated. I was suprised at how the number was though....maybe 1st H under and then 2nd H over ??
ULL @ UCF :
Really dont have much on this game. Had expected 9.5 to 11.5 we opened around 11.5 / 12 now moved to -13. I would expect an UND 135 though. Think 72-58.....
Evansville @ Valpo :
Valpo now a member of the Horizon League is coming off consecutive road conference wins. Now they come home and faving what appears to be an approving Evansville squad. These teams both played Ball State and Austin Peay with the same results..WINS!
The Crusaders hosted Ball State and won by 13 at home. The difference was clearly Ball State missing all its 3 pointers. They fell behind early by DDs and rallied to cut it to4 in the 2nd H before fading again. ( 0-16 vs 13-31 from 3pt land)
In simple terms I have Evansville being slightily better then Ball State by a couple of points. Which ,eans I had this game at -10.5 again where it opened but has since moved.Evansville top 4 scorers all shot the 3 well and combine for about 40%.
Also they both played AP. The Aces played them at home winning by 10 and I would say that spread wise that AP and Evansvile are equal..a PK on neutral court. Where AP was a PK vs Valpo on a neutral court and was beat fairly easily...would think since Valpo is better then expected they really are about 5.5 points on a neutral court...
Last year Evansville did beat Valpo at home. However Evansville did lose alot of key players which has been partly erased by Ely's emergence.
While the egg they dropped at Buffalo scares me I think they can keep this under double digits as Valpo is better suited in an underdog role the big chalk IMO...
Real suprised the total opened below 135 cause Evansville has played alot of slow paced teams in Samford , Princeton and Butler but when they played a SE Mizzou State the game saw 165 pts!
Would be shocked if Valpo didnt score 70+ here...and think Evansville should crack 60...worse case...
StMarys @ So ILL :
I expected this to come out -3.5 and some places it opened -3.5 but now 4.5. This seems like a tough spot for STM as they are newly in teh top 25 and traveling for there 1st true road game and quite a distance as well. They struggled vs SDST on a neutral court before the Aztecs faded late.
So. Ill is only 80-4 at HOme past few years. Yes , they did lose to Indiana this season at home but the Hoosiers seem to be a legit Top 10 or Top 15 squad. DJ White and Eric Gordon are a difficult duo. Losses vs USC on a neutral court and @ Charlotte were due to offensive woes but these are tough games. Especially when So.Ill started so well and was laying decent chalk vs these opponents.
They were favored by 4 vs Indy , @ Charlotte and vs USC on a nuetral court. Now they are the same number at home vs StMary. What better time for Falker to get going then against a team he has had success as SoILL has won the past 2 seasons!
Really liked this down at -3 just not as sure now....think SoIll breaks there funk....
Sac St @ Oregon :
Didnt know that Hairston would be a gametime call and that Longmire would also probably miss. Why get involved....
Looking at :
Bradley -2 / ML
Under 135.5 ULL
Evansville +12
Over 131 Evansville
StMarys -4.5 maybe 1st H...
GL
Monday, December 10, 2007
Tuesday NBA :
Wolves @ Wiz :
Wash is on a 11-2 OVER run. Naturally I had the Over 194.5 last game and at 193 pt swith 90 seconds left they failed to score !! Just my Luck lately. Mix in a 23-9 OVER run versus Western Conference foes.
You have to me somewhat impressed how Wash dismantled NJ in the 2nd H on Sunday. Furthermore a young team upsetting the SUNS at home now traveling seems like a great fade spot. Sure Minny is 5-3 ATS away but look at the numbers ...+8.5 @ NYK , +11.5 LAL , +4.5 @ Sac w/o Artest , +14 @ Den , +11 @ NO ( SU UPSET) , +14 @ Dallas , +9 @ Memphis in a poor spot ( day after they got smoked and choked by SA in the 4th q) , +9 @ ATL where they had ahuge 2nd H rally).
Minny appears depelted some in its bench with Walker and Buckner looking OUT. Looking at the Wiz on offense I feel they should score 104 + points here and Minny should get to 93++...oddly Minny scored 93 in its first 4 road games , then 103 twice before ONLY 80 @ Memphis in the flat spot and 89 @ ATL after a REAL sluggish start...The only concern for an OVER would be a WIZ blowout which would help it sneak under...like a 105-89 win....
So lean to Wiz -9 and lean ov 197....
Raps @ Hawks :
The Raps appear to set to get Bargnani back while playing a sandwich game(home vs Hous then @ Dallas). Bosh returned and appeared fine playing 40 minutes while Ford has worked himself back .
The Hawks will be off a road upset WIN in Orlando. I dont trust ATL in spots against good teams where they must win to cash. They have lost at home badly to SA and DET recently as well as to the Hornets. They were again w/o Lue and Childress so assume they miss here.
One thing we have to applaud is the work ATL did on defense holding ORL to 40% at home. They scored more points tonight then usual really due to late FTs.
Personally I feel its hard to get a pulse on this game. You have some returning players for Tor and Bargnani could be rusty. I owuld hate to take ATL or the Under after passing on them tonite. Though I may be inclined to play a 1st H under......
Pacers @ Cavs :
Guessing we see about -5.5 here with LeBrons return(Hughes just came back) . You wonder what the Cavs will look like on offense. Simply because both James and Hughes have not played in so long together . Hughes looked rusty last game and James probably will be to a degree. Indy playing so uptempo does lead to easy buckets...curious at the number here. Pacers playing better past 2 games and have 3 days rest while Cle desperate to end a losing streak. If we get a big number I would probably take Indy and expect a Cavs SU win but ATS loss.
Clippers @ NJN :
The Nets are playing terrible and due to injuries LAC is terrible this season. Home team dominants the series.
Whats worse being 3-13 ATS last 16 or 0-8-1 ATS at home ?? Thats the situation we have here!! For good measure NJ only 10-24-1 L35 ATS after a SU loss by 10 ++ pts.
Fav is 7-1 last 8 in the series and NJN 0-7ATS last 7 in NJN .....
Since returning from the West Coast NJN has looked terrible. They lost SU at home to Memphis in a game I dont recall them ever leading ( had memphis that nite) , then afetr a few days off looked terrible but rallied and escaped vs Philly , got smpoked @ Det the next day , sort of bounced back by beating a deplted Cavs squad , followed by losing at home to NYK when Kidd sat out , losing at home to Houston and then losing @ Wash !!!!! Thing is what has LAC done to make you excited ?? Last 10 2-8 SU beating a disinterested DEN team awhile back and beating the Kings when they played there 1st game w/o KMartin!
If NJ wasnt struggling -7 would be real soft but since they are its dead on. NJ is desperate to win this and probably puts me on them. With both teams struggling some I would lean UND 184 but thats a tight number...NJ should score low 90's...worst case..
Pistons @ Grizz :
Tough to not like the Grizz and over. After all Grizz are 3-0 ATS as dogs while going 7-2 Over! Now you get Mem after a bad loss when they were just drained after losing in OT @ NO. Problem is minus one bad spot vs Chi the Pistons have been en fuego!!!
Still Grizz have played well vs DET in the past covering 7 of 8 barely missing that eight cover in the series. have to stick with Grizz / Over here....
Seattle @ Chicago :
Seattle seems to be improving playing much better in its past 2 road contests but partly because they made up big 1st H defecits. You have to think Chi + Under at the moment. So UND 189....just cant lay -8 here with Chi having Indy on deck they havent shown the consistency...I dont like Sea in this spot either cause its a perfect number.....
Port @ Utah :
Jazz stumbling some dropping 3 straight road games and 4 vs the number. They have PHO on deck and you wonder how interested they are vs an improving Port squad. With Portland trying to be more aggressive would have to think over 205. Had expected 11.5 or 12 here with Port improving....
Spurs @ GSW :
Duncan should return and SA has owned the Warriors. I think GSW is in a mini funk right now and taking way , way to many 3 pters!! Spurs have won 9 of 10 only losing in a bad spot @ Sac plus they beat Dallas and Utah w/o Duncan....
Curious to see a number would expect SA -3 .....
CBB:
Small schedule had expected a -2 with Bradley @ Wright St....so not sure there. Not familiar enough with ULL to guess a number thought bewteen -9.5 and -11.5....we have -11.5..... , Expected -3.5 with So Ill and thinking about playing 1st H So.Ill cause the number is probably a bit soft due to recent play of these teams. However 1st true road game vs STMarys and they started slowly vs SDST in a neutral site game . Had expected -11 maybe -11.5 with Valpo we see -10.5. Which makes me thinks that Evansville will be a play. Valpo is catching alot of action lately and I would have thought they would have inflated the number slightily...
Last is Oregon hosting Sac State! I kinda expected higher maybe even 35 /36. They have some common opponents and Sac State gets smoked where as Oregon smoked those same teams...
Sac St +22.5 @ Kansas State lost by 30. Tough place to play but I think on a neutral court Oregon is 6 or 7 points better..., they caught +30 @ Stanford and covered now I think again Oregon is 6 or 7 better on a neutral court , how bout Pacifuc and SF ...at -32 orcheaper it seems some sort of Oregon play is in order..maybe 1st H ....they should win by 30 rather easily......
bad signs allowing 47% from 3 pt land and then hitting just 54& from the FT line...Last home game for Oregon for awhile they should win 100-65 after shaking off some rust vs Utah.
See what tmrw brings.....
Wolves @ Wiz :
Wash is on a 11-2 OVER run. Naturally I had the Over 194.5 last game and at 193 pt swith 90 seconds left they failed to score !! Just my Luck lately. Mix in a 23-9 OVER run versus Western Conference foes.
You have to me somewhat impressed how Wash dismantled NJ in the 2nd H on Sunday. Furthermore a young team upsetting the SUNS at home now traveling seems like a great fade spot. Sure Minny is 5-3 ATS away but look at the numbers ...+8.5 @ NYK , +11.5 LAL , +4.5 @ Sac w/o Artest , +14 @ Den , +11 @ NO ( SU UPSET) , +14 @ Dallas , +9 @ Memphis in a poor spot ( day after they got smoked and choked by SA in the 4th q) , +9 @ ATL where they had ahuge 2nd H rally).
Minny appears depelted some in its bench with Walker and Buckner looking OUT. Looking at the Wiz on offense I feel they should score 104 + points here and Minny should get to 93++...oddly Minny scored 93 in its first 4 road games , then 103 twice before ONLY 80 @ Memphis in the flat spot and 89 @ ATL after a REAL sluggish start...The only concern for an OVER would be a WIZ blowout which would help it sneak under...like a 105-89 win....
So lean to Wiz -9 and lean ov 197....
Raps @ Hawks :
The Raps appear to set to get Bargnani back while playing a sandwich game(home vs Hous then @ Dallas). Bosh returned and appeared fine playing 40 minutes while Ford has worked himself back .
The Hawks will be off a road upset WIN in Orlando. I dont trust ATL in spots against good teams where they must win to cash. They have lost at home badly to SA and DET recently as well as to the Hornets. They were again w/o Lue and Childress so assume they miss here.
One thing we have to applaud is the work ATL did on defense holding ORL to 40% at home. They scored more points tonight then usual really due to late FTs.
Personally I feel its hard to get a pulse on this game. You have some returning players for Tor and Bargnani could be rusty. I owuld hate to take ATL or the Under after passing on them tonite. Though I may be inclined to play a 1st H under......
Pacers @ Cavs :
Guessing we see about -5.5 here with LeBrons return(Hughes just came back) . You wonder what the Cavs will look like on offense. Simply because both James and Hughes have not played in so long together . Hughes looked rusty last game and James probably will be to a degree. Indy playing so uptempo does lead to easy buckets...curious at the number here. Pacers playing better past 2 games and have 3 days rest while Cle desperate to end a losing streak. If we get a big number I would probably take Indy and expect a Cavs SU win but ATS loss.
Clippers @ NJN :
The Nets are playing terrible and due to injuries LAC is terrible this season. Home team dominants the series.
Whats worse being 3-13 ATS last 16 or 0-8-1 ATS at home ?? Thats the situation we have here!! For good measure NJ only 10-24-1 L35 ATS after a SU loss by 10 ++ pts.
Fav is 7-1 last 8 in the series and NJN 0-7ATS last 7 in NJN .....
Since returning from the West Coast NJN has looked terrible. They lost SU at home to Memphis in a game I dont recall them ever leading ( had memphis that nite) , then afetr a few days off looked terrible but rallied and escaped vs Philly , got smpoked @ Det the next day , sort of bounced back by beating a deplted Cavs squad , followed by losing at home to NYK when Kidd sat out , losing at home to Houston and then losing @ Wash !!!!! Thing is what has LAC done to make you excited ?? Last 10 2-8 SU beating a disinterested DEN team awhile back and beating the Kings when they played there 1st game w/o KMartin!
If NJ wasnt struggling -7 would be real soft but since they are its dead on. NJ is desperate to win this and probably puts me on them. With both teams struggling some I would lean UND 184 but thats a tight number...NJ should score low 90's...worst case..
Pistons @ Grizz :
Tough to not like the Grizz and over. After all Grizz are 3-0 ATS as dogs while going 7-2 Over! Now you get Mem after a bad loss when they were just drained after losing in OT @ NO. Problem is minus one bad spot vs Chi the Pistons have been en fuego!!!
Still Grizz have played well vs DET in the past covering 7 of 8 barely missing that eight cover in the series. have to stick with Grizz / Over here....
Seattle @ Chicago :
Seattle seems to be improving playing much better in its past 2 road contests but partly because they made up big 1st H defecits. You have to think Chi + Under at the moment. So UND 189....just cant lay -8 here with Chi having Indy on deck they havent shown the consistency...I dont like Sea in this spot either cause its a perfect number.....
Port @ Utah :
Jazz stumbling some dropping 3 straight road games and 4 vs the number. They have PHO on deck and you wonder how interested they are vs an improving Port squad. With Portland trying to be more aggressive would have to think over 205. Had expected 11.5 or 12 here with Port improving....
Spurs @ GSW :
Duncan should return and SA has owned the Warriors. I think GSW is in a mini funk right now and taking way , way to many 3 pters!! Spurs have won 9 of 10 only losing in a bad spot @ Sac plus they beat Dallas and Utah w/o Duncan....
Curious to see a number would expect SA -3 .....
CBB:
Small schedule had expected a -2 with Bradley @ Wright St....so not sure there. Not familiar enough with ULL to guess a number thought bewteen -9.5 and -11.5....we have -11.5..... , Expected -3.5 with So Ill and thinking about playing 1st H So.Ill cause the number is probably a bit soft due to recent play of these teams. However 1st true road game vs STMarys and they started slowly vs SDST in a neutral site game . Had expected -11 maybe -11.5 with Valpo we see -10.5. Which makes me thinks that Evansville will be a play. Valpo is catching alot of action lately and I would have thought they would have inflated the number slightily...
Last is Oregon hosting Sac State! I kinda expected higher maybe even 35 /36. They have some common opponents and Sac State gets smoked where as Oregon smoked those same teams...
Sac St +22.5 @ Kansas State lost by 30. Tough place to play but I think on a neutral court Oregon is 6 or 7 points better..., they caught +30 @ Stanford and covered now I think again Oregon is 6 or 7 better on a neutral court , how bout Pacifuc and SF ...at -32 orcheaper it seems some sort of Oregon play is in order..maybe 1st H ....they should win by 30 rather easily......
bad signs allowing 47% from 3 pt land and then hitting just 54& from the FT line...Last home game for Oregon for awhile they should win 100-65 after shaking off some rust vs Utah.
See what tmrw brings.....
I only wish I could listen to me. ATL is what ithas been for 14 weeks......TERRIBLE ! This year more then any terrible NFL teams have been TERRIBLE week after week...
Now in PHO the Suns tie up and fall apart....great sign your fucked...3rd Quarter - 1:39
Will miracles never cease? Shaquille O´Neal is 4 for 4 from the free throw line, can´t remember the last time I´ve been able to say that where he is considered.
I guess my day ended when I passed on ATL and the UNDER then double up on the Philly UNDER.....
Now in PHO the Suns tie up and fall apart....great sign your fucked...3rd Quarter - 1:39
Will miracles never cease? Shaquille O´Neal is 4 for 4 from the free throw line, can´t remember the last time I´ve been able to say that where he is considered.
I guess my day ended when I passed on ATL and the UNDER then double up on the Philly UNDER.....
Also all PROPS to Drew Brees he played an excellent and basically flawless 1st H. To think we had NO pinned twice inside the 10 yd line( hell on the 1) and couldnt stop them. Dont like that soft zone ATL has shown...hopefully the Falons either come backor just go to bed early and help my under hit.....
2nd H Suns -10.5
From CBS SPORTSLINE
The half comes to a close with the Heat leading the Suns 67-63. This is the best offensive performance so far this season for Miami, beating their previous high of 66 points. It looked like they may have been getting a little tired towards the end of the half as they were missing alot more shots and having mental lapses on defense.
Add in the fact they shot 2 FTs....oh and hit 32-43, 74% from the floor! 74% and lead by 3 POINTS!!!!!
The Suns seemed to wake up and Miami will be playing the 2nd H of a 4th in 5 nights , remember the SUns in the 4th quarter vs Minny ?? Nash has 1 point vs Quinn but the one knock I see is Amare's 3 fouls??
did play Bucks +3 1st H cause I think 5.5 is ridiculous for SAC to lay and UNDER 198.5.....
2nd H Suns -10.5
From CBS SPORTSLINE
The half comes to a close with the Heat leading the Suns 67-63. This is the best offensive performance so far this season for Miami, beating their previous high of 66 points. It looked like they may have been getting a little tired towards the end of the half as they were missing alot more shots and having mental lapses on defense.
Add in the fact they shot 2 FTs....oh and hit 32-43, 74% from the floor! 74% and lead by 3 POINTS!!!!!
The Suns seemed to wake up and Miami will be playing the 2nd H of a 4th in 5 nights , remember the SUns in the 4th quarter vs Minny ?? Nash has 1 point vs Quinn but the one knock I see is Amare's 3 fouls??
did play Bucks +3 1st H cause I think 5.5 is ridiculous for SAC to lay and UNDER 198.5.....
My UNLUCKY streak continues ! really didnt deserve to have a shot at the UNDER 182 in Philly but why foul down 12 with 29 seconds left ?? Stuck on 180 pts all Philly owuld have done was run out the shot clock so if they missed game was probably finished at 180. Naturally I tried to play U 92 2nd H and it goes off as I submit , then factor in passing on ATL and UNDER only to play 2nd H over 99 , the only break so far was passing on NYK and thats not over yet!!!! Need some OT help in ORL to have any chance and that probably wont happen......at least I was smart to lay off the Suns for now....FRUSTRATED !!! Had thought about 1st Q ATL +1/2 and Over 7.5 but not suprisingly passed!
Looking at the late games in NBA and NHL....BOL
Looking at the late games in NBA and NHL....BOL
More NBA :
Heat @ Suns :
Terrible spot for both teams . Miami playing 4th in 5 days on a long West Coast trip( b2b) with the absence of two guards Willaims and Parker. The Suns are laos playing 5th in 7 days off an East Coast trip.
I would expect zero defense here. Typically I like to fade teams in there 1st game back home after a long trip. However I also like to fade teams in there 4th in 5 spot. Probably would think Miami is in the worse spot here playing PHO in a 4 / 5 spot.....so have to lean Suns here..
basically off a LOSS against a tired team I took the 1st quarter OVER 55.5 . Plan on taking SUns 2nd H so gambling the 1st H isnt so bad........nash himself talked about how tough it was to play a 4th in 5 (5th in 7 actually) on a different coast all on the road and Miami is in a similiar spot....especially shorthanded and banged up some...
Shaquille O'Neal added eight points and eight rebounds in 33 minutes, but again sat out down the stretch as Riley used Alonzo Mourning the final 1:07. O'Neal, who was critical of teammates earlier in the week for not getting him the ball more, has averaged just 9.4 points his last five games and 14.6 for the season - well off his career mark of 25.7 points per game.
"Zo is a little more mobile than Shaq right now," Riley said. "You could see that Shaq was laboring a little bit because of his thigh, so he was dragging his leg around doing the best job he could do. (Mourning's) a shot blocker, he's a big body and everybody knows he's coming. He gives our players confidence because he can get up there and he has such good timing."
Heat @ Suns :
Terrible spot for both teams . Miami playing 4th in 5 days on a long West Coast trip( b2b) with the absence of two guards Willaims and Parker. The Suns are laos playing 5th in 7 days off an East Coast trip.
I would expect zero defense here. Typically I like to fade teams in there 1st game back home after a long trip. However I also like to fade teams in there 4th in 5 spot. Probably would think Miami is in the worse spot here playing PHO in a 4 / 5 spot.....so have to lean Suns here..
basically off a LOSS against a tired team I took the 1st quarter OVER 55.5 . Plan on taking SUns 2nd H so gambling the 1st H isnt so bad........nash himself talked about how tough it was to play a 4th in 5 (5th in 7 actually) on a different coast all on the road and Miami is in a similiar spot....especially shorthanded and banged up some...
Shaquille O'Neal added eight points and eight rebounds in 33 minutes, but again sat out down the stretch as Riley used Alonzo Mourning the final 1:07. O'Neal, who was critical of teammates earlier in the week for not getting him the ball more, has averaged just 9.4 points his last five games and 14.6 for the season - well off his career mark of 25.7 points per game.
"Zo is a little more mobile than Shaq right now," Riley said. "You could see that Shaq was laboring a little bit because of his thigh, so he was dragging his leg around doing the best job he could do. (Mourning's) a shot blocker, he's a big body and everybody knows he's coming. He gives our players confidence because he can get up there and he has such good timing."
NBA :
Houston @ Philly :
Suddenly the Sixers have shown life giving the Celtics all they can handle then defetaing NYK in both ends of a home and home series. The Rockets are playing there
3rd road game in 4 days. In the previous two they jumped out to huge 1st H leads only to squander them in the 2nd H . However yesterday they squandered the WIN not just the big halftime lead! Last season they smoked the Sixers in both meetings including by 50 @ Philly. Revenge here or just an impossible uphill climb?? Worse is they struggled toscore in both meetings.
You would think Alston is out with a strained groin. If he couldnt go yesterday I dont think 1 day would be that much of a difference but I dont know for sure. For Philly they will be w/o key bench player Louis Williams.
Due to Philly's increased play of late coupled with Alston's probable absence and 3rd roadie in 4 days I like Philly. However I felt we would see +7 here and we have lost some of that value along with key reserve Louis Williams. games vs Eastern teams on the road have been lower scoring ....think you have to pencil in Philly for 85 points despite there recent play and would guess this game dosnt crack 178 points....
UNDER 183 and +6
Atl @ Orlando :
Once teams go on huge runs they tend to have a fall back period it appears both ORL and GSW are in that category now. ORL in a bad spot returning home from a West Coast trip lost SU to INDY at home. Now they did have significant rest which should have helped overcome the negative situation. So I am not expecting a bounce back effort here. The Hawks have been staying in the mid 80's while ORL seems to have adopted a quicker pace like its recent West Coast opponents though playing Indy doesnt help.
Under 195 and +10
Dallas @ NYK :
Marbury will sit out . The Knicks were terrible last outing and have beat Denver and Utah at home while battling Pho despite losing the cover late . Dallas has shown no conisitency but owned NY in the past. Mavs are only 4-6 on the road but what can you expect from NYK here ??Dallas hasnt played any defense and neither has NYK. You would best be suited to play the 1st H over though...
NYK +9
My PC froze and this didnt get submitted . Only played : Under 182 Philly and Philly +6. Passed on my leans of ATL , UNDER 195.5 , Dallas +9 cause I filled with self doubt of late!! BOL
Houston @ Philly :
Suddenly the Sixers have shown life giving the Celtics all they can handle then defetaing NYK in both ends of a home and home series. The Rockets are playing there
3rd road game in 4 days. In the previous two they jumped out to huge 1st H leads only to squander them in the 2nd H . However yesterday they squandered the WIN not just the big halftime lead! Last season they smoked the Sixers in both meetings including by 50 @ Philly. Revenge here or just an impossible uphill climb?? Worse is they struggled toscore in both meetings.
You would think Alston is out with a strained groin. If he couldnt go yesterday I dont think 1 day would be that much of a difference but I dont know for sure. For Philly they will be w/o key bench player Louis Williams.
Due to Philly's increased play of late coupled with Alston's probable absence and 3rd roadie in 4 days I like Philly. However I felt we would see +7 here and we have lost some of that value along with key reserve Louis Williams. games vs Eastern teams on the road have been lower scoring ....think you have to pencil in Philly for 85 points despite there recent play and would guess this game dosnt crack 178 points....
UNDER 183 and +6
Atl @ Orlando :
Once teams go on huge runs they tend to have a fall back period it appears both ORL and GSW are in that category now. ORL in a bad spot returning home from a West Coast trip lost SU to INDY at home. Now they did have significant rest which should have helped overcome the negative situation. So I am not expecting a bounce back effort here. The Hawks have been staying in the mid 80's while ORL seems to have adopted a quicker pace like its recent West Coast opponents though playing Indy doesnt help.
Under 195 and +10
Dallas @ NYK :
Marbury will sit out . The Knicks were terrible last outing and have beat Denver and Utah at home while battling Pho despite losing the cover late . Dallas has shown no conisitency but owned NY in the past. Mavs are only 4-6 on the road but what can you expect from NYK here ??Dallas hasnt played any defense and neither has NYK. You would best be suited to play the 1st H over though...
NYK +9
My PC froze and this didnt get submitted . Only played : Under 182 Philly and Philly +6. Passed on my leans of ATL , UNDER 195.5 , Dallas +9 cause I filled with self doubt of late!! BOL
Since I feel like I have researched this game to no end my conclusions stay the same. The Falcons can WIN this game if they simply do not self destruct like they did vs Carolina , TB , and even the Colts and Giants to some degree. The problem is that ATL has made this a trait of there team and how do you break it in week 14 ?? Possibly through better QB play which could increase overall team confidence( this is my guess at how they will). No one believes Insurance Salesman Chris Redman is a savior but who was Luke McCown before last week when he traveled to face the Saints?? I know he was a guy who basically had last played in a few games in 2004 for Cleveland !!! That 109 passer rating wasnt to shabby! Back to those COSTLY penalties that keep drives alive the Hall taunting on Steve Smith , the Giant game had more then a few , the roughing the punter vs Indy , the shoddy play vs TB that lead to points for TB , etc. You have to have discipline and focus to keep that from occuring. Again something tough to resolve in week 14 but through better QB play the team in general has less plays to make and less time to foul up.
The Saints offense has revolved on BIG PLAYS via the passing game. The Falcons are above average in defending the pass . The Saints scored 23 points last week but managed just 250 yds ( pick 6 by McKenzie and a safety accounted for 9 points)( also the had 6 punts , 1 fumble , 2 Tds on offense all day. They TDs were both via long passes a 40 yder to setup a score and a 45yder for a score), they had 31 @ Carolina but had 3 TDs in the 3rd quarter (possibly due to the Panthers just wearing down on defense?), only 10 @ Houston despite moving the ball , 29 vs STL but 22 came in garbage time vs STL in the 4th quarter ( just like Redman's last week), they destroyed Jax via the air for 41 points and could have had more ( Jags are poor vs the pass) , 31 @ SF when the Niner defense was in a stretch where it looked lost and battled some injuries, 22 at home vs these same Falcons , and 28 vs Seattle but had a fumble for a TD , the first four games were 10-14 points.
So my point is they scored 22+ plus seven times in 12 games but those seven came in the past 8 games. It appears the Rams game was due to simply the fact they dropped back and threw every possession versus the orst 2nd H defense in football , 3 TDs vs Carolina came when the Panthers a terrible team came unglued to start the 2nd Half , they managed 22 and 23 at home vs ATL and TB but really they had 14 vs TB so the offense just hasnt performed as expected.
Look at the Sainst 28th ranked pass defense and then realize they played some bad QB's...Panthers twice w/o Delhomme, SF , ATL , TB twice , Quinn Gray , Vince Young ...and managed just a 3-5 record in those games!!
What is there to say about ATL's offense ?? They have only scored 20 + on four occassions ( actually 20 three times and 26 once vs a banged up Houston squad) , there OL has been decimated by injuries, w/o a quality OL and passing game there strength of running the ball is negatated, there WRs even when open seem to DROP a ton of passes...the old sorry coach it hit me the hands what was I supposed to do ....
At then of the day Saints are worse then they are perceived and ATL can be significantly better IF they get some decent QB play...The Saints defense has done well in creating turnovers that lead to points..dont forget that Redman did throw an INT late in the game which I didnt see so I cant see it was his fault or not.....
Now the Saints have scored 23 , 22 and 31 vs ATL with Brees. The 31 game had a late score and TWO huge passing plays for scores which we know is key for the Sainst offense and watch for Devery Henderson who has made some huge plays in this series.
Falcons +4.5 or ML whatever suits you
Under 44.5
TEASER +10 ATL and Under 50
Probably prefer the UNDER slightly more...GL
The Saints offense has revolved on BIG PLAYS via the passing game. The Falcons are above average in defending the pass . The Saints scored 23 points last week but managed just 250 yds ( pick 6 by McKenzie and a safety accounted for 9 points)( also the had 6 punts , 1 fumble , 2 Tds on offense all day. They TDs were both via long passes a 40 yder to setup a score and a 45yder for a score), they had 31 @ Carolina but had 3 TDs in the 3rd quarter (possibly due to the Panthers just wearing down on defense?), only 10 @ Houston despite moving the ball , 29 vs STL but 22 came in garbage time vs STL in the 4th quarter ( just like Redman's last week), they destroyed Jax via the air for 41 points and could have had more ( Jags are poor vs the pass) , 31 @ SF when the Niner defense was in a stretch where it looked lost and battled some injuries, 22 at home vs these same Falcons , and 28 vs Seattle but had a fumble for a TD , the first four games were 10-14 points.
So my point is they scored 22+ plus seven times in 12 games but those seven came in the past 8 games. It appears the Rams game was due to simply the fact they dropped back and threw every possession versus the orst 2nd H defense in football , 3 TDs vs Carolina came when the Panthers a terrible team came unglued to start the 2nd Half , they managed 22 and 23 at home vs ATL and TB but really they had 14 vs TB so the offense just hasnt performed as expected.
Look at the Sainst 28th ranked pass defense and then realize they played some bad QB's...Panthers twice w/o Delhomme, SF , ATL , TB twice , Quinn Gray , Vince Young ...and managed just a 3-5 record in those games!!
What is there to say about ATL's offense ?? They have only scored 20 + on four occassions ( actually 20 three times and 26 once vs a banged up Houston squad) , there OL has been decimated by injuries, w/o a quality OL and passing game there strength of running the ball is negatated, there WRs even when open seem to DROP a ton of passes...the old sorry coach it hit me the hands what was I supposed to do ....
At then of the day Saints are worse then they are perceived and ATL can be significantly better IF they get some decent QB play...The Saints defense has done well in creating turnovers that lead to points..dont forget that Redman did throw an INT late in the game which I didnt see so I cant see it was his fault or not.....
Now the Saints have scored 23 , 22 and 31 vs ATL with Brees. The 31 game had a late score and TWO huge passing plays for scores which we know is key for the Sainst offense and watch for Devery Henderson who has made some huge plays in this series.
Falcons +4.5 or ML whatever suits you
Under 44.5
TEASER +10 ATL and Under 50
Probably prefer the UNDER slightly more...GL
You call this Monday Night Football????? Saints visit the Falcons!!
Long ago Deuce McAllister was lost for the season and now the underacheiving but ever exciting Reggie Bush will hang with him on the sidelines. That means once again we have a 3rd string player in a star position !! This year more then any the injuries seem to have piled on for certain tams at certain positions. Now they turn to Aaron Stecker who has been largely unproductive running the ball this season especially on the 2 occassions he received 10 + carries( not a great indicator cause he wasnt the featured back like he will be here). Really though with Bush struggling as a featured back will there be a dropoff ? Stecker can catch the ball as well. Clearly he is not the gifted athlete that Bush is and that is what they lose. That explosiveness and big play ability.
Flip to Atlanta and they are basically riding with there 4th string QB a guy who was out of the league for 3 years in Chris Redman. To throw more chaos into the situation the Vick sentencing will be shortly before kickoff( a few hours). Update: He recieved 23 months in prison. You would believe there are going to be some ATL players more focused on the sentencing then the GAME. Finally Jerious Norwood has been dubbed the starter , hopefully he continues to get more carries. Despite terrible QB play Roddy White has emerged with 62 catches and 900+ yards which include four 100+ yd recieving games including the last two games. One of which was the 1st meeting in NO when Leftwich and Harrington played. It appears Crumpler is back in form after 7 catches last week as well.
The bottomline is Redman. How do you put a value on this guy ?? He came into a game down 21-3 late 3rd quarter and moved the ball versus a very average defense that had probably grown complacent . You flip back to his BALT days and his numbers were decent when he started and they were fairly solid last week. Redman's play is so key beyond the obvious because even his offense said it felt some sort of confidence with him in there watching him make plays and move the ball. That NEEDS to carry over here.
How many times have we gone over the MNF angle which STATES that UNLESS the SPRESAD is DOUBLE DIGITS you simply need to pick the SU winner and forgo the spread. Meaning if you think the fav wins lay the points but if you think the DOG wins then take the ML!!
The Falcons after switching to Leftwich seemed to really fall apart. Looking at the Saints season besides that "ODD" massacre win @ Seattle on SNF what impresses you about this team? They are 1-3 past 4 games only winning at AWFUL Carolina while losing @ Houston and HOME vs STL and TB with Luke McCown and Earnest Graham !! On the season they snuck by ATL @ home , defeated Quinny Gray and the JAGS , and beat up on SF !! The Saints defense got back some of its missing pieces and were shredded by McCown and TB last week. They allowed 466 yards of offense compared to NO 246 and let the game get away late ! Now they MUST win out to have a shot at the playoffs. There defense didnt look so good @ Houston allowing Schaub in his return a solid afternoon. Redman seems comfortable due to his familiarity with Petrino from there Louisville days.
The key is simply Redman's play , ATL focus and the offensive play calling. With backs like Dunn and Norwood compared to Stecker and Thomas the Falcons should be able to control TOP. With 1 supposed shutdown corner they should also shrink the field of play for New Orleans. That should lead to better play by their defense.
Simply put the Saints have NOT played anywhere near the level it did last season. Thinking at 5-7 they have a shot at the playoffs seems like a fantasy to me. They couldnt defeat Luke McCown and the Bucs at home in a game to get to 500 and shrink the division lead. Now traveling to ATL and cause its LABELED a must win spot they will play well?? Nah !! However ATL has been great at self destructing see Car , NYG and Indy home losses and will be relying on Redman to lead !!!
Has anyone seen a sign that ATL has quit ? The rallied last week on the road when trailing 21-0 at half , they started good vs Indy leading 13-7 upon until the 23 minute mark ....the effort seems to be there.....
Not sure but the Falcons ML would have in my eyes more value then laying the points.....STRONG LEAN : ATL ML
You have to wonder who has more momentum if there is such a thing here....ATL rallying to almost comeback and win on the road now returning home Or New Orleans choking a way a key Win at home now traveling??????
Long ago Deuce McAllister was lost for the season and now the underacheiving but ever exciting Reggie Bush will hang with him on the sidelines. That means once again we have a 3rd string player in a star position !! This year more then any the injuries seem to have piled on for certain tams at certain positions. Now they turn to Aaron Stecker who has been largely unproductive running the ball this season especially on the 2 occassions he received 10 + carries( not a great indicator cause he wasnt the featured back like he will be here). Really though with Bush struggling as a featured back will there be a dropoff ? Stecker can catch the ball as well. Clearly he is not the gifted athlete that Bush is and that is what they lose. That explosiveness and big play ability.
Flip to Atlanta and they are basically riding with there 4th string QB a guy who was out of the league for 3 years in Chris Redman. To throw more chaos into the situation the Vick sentencing will be shortly before kickoff( a few hours). Update: He recieved 23 months in prison. You would believe there are going to be some ATL players more focused on the sentencing then the GAME. Finally Jerious Norwood has been dubbed the starter , hopefully he continues to get more carries. Despite terrible QB play Roddy White has emerged with 62 catches and 900+ yards which include four 100+ yd recieving games including the last two games. One of which was the 1st meeting in NO when Leftwich and Harrington played. It appears Crumpler is back in form after 7 catches last week as well.
The bottomline is Redman. How do you put a value on this guy ?? He came into a game down 21-3 late 3rd quarter and moved the ball versus a very average defense that had probably grown complacent . You flip back to his BALT days and his numbers were decent when he started and they were fairly solid last week. Redman's play is so key beyond the obvious because even his offense said it felt some sort of confidence with him in there watching him make plays and move the ball. That NEEDS to carry over here.
How many times have we gone over the MNF angle which STATES that UNLESS the SPRESAD is DOUBLE DIGITS you simply need to pick the SU winner and forgo the spread. Meaning if you think the fav wins lay the points but if you think the DOG wins then take the ML!!
The Falcons after switching to Leftwich seemed to really fall apart. Looking at the Saints season besides that "ODD" massacre win @ Seattle on SNF what impresses you about this team? They are 1-3 past 4 games only winning at AWFUL Carolina while losing @ Houston and HOME vs STL and TB with Luke McCown and Earnest Graham !! On the season they snuck by ATL @ home , defeated Quinny Gray and the JAGS , and beat up on SF !! The Saints defense got back some of its missing pieces and were shredded by McCown and TB last week. They allowed 466 yards of offense compared to NO 246 and let the game get away late ! Now they MUST win out to have a shot at the playoffs. There defense didnt look so good @ Houston allowing Schaub in his return a solid afternoon. Redman seems comfortable due to his familiarity with Petrino from there Louisville days.
The key is simply Redman's play , ATL focus and the offensive play calling. With backs like Dunn and Norwood compared to Stecker and Thomas the Falcons should be able to control TOP. With 1 supposed shutdown corner they should also shrink the field of play for New Orleans. That should lead to better play by their defense.
Simply put the Saints have NOT played anywhere near the level it did last season. Thinking at 5-7 they have a shot at the playoffs seems like a fantasy to me. They couldnt defeat Luke McCown and the Bucs at home in a game to get to 500 and shrink the division lead. Now traveling to ATL and cause its LABELED a must win spot they will play well?? Nah !! However ATL has been great at self destructing see Car , NYG and Indy home losses and will be relying on Redman to lead !!!
Has anyone seen a sign that ATL has quit ? The rallied last week on the road when trailing 21-0 at half , they started good vs Indy leading 13-7 upon until the 23 minute mark ....the effort seems to be there.....
Not sure but the Falcons ML would have in my eyes more value then laying the points.....STRONG LEAN : ATL ML
You have to wonder who has more momentum if there is such a thing here....ATL rallying to almost comeback and win on the road now returning home Or New Orleans choking a way a key Win at home now traveling??????
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