April 2nd

Good start hitting NYM and the Under finishing +8.33 Units.

Early starts :
Yankees -165 {4units}
Under 10 -120 NYY {1unit}
Under 8 -115 Detriot {2 units}
Under 8 -105 Nationals {4units}
Phillies -110 {3units}
Under 8 -105 Milw {3units}
Brewers -110 {3units}

Reasons:-

With NYY it's real simple I am biased Homer fuck! In all seriousness I think Scott Kazmir is still working / feeling his way back from being shut down early last year with shoulder issues and being ordered to not throw over the winter. That puts him behind most SP at this point when he worked something like 16 innings this spring. I think its two-fold with him in that he wont be his sharpest and TB will baby him somewhat and maybe cap him at 6 innings . Though he doesnt usually get past the 6th on the road anyway. The other is Kazmir stastically is medicore on the road in young his career . NY hasn't hit him real well in the few meetings and with the abundance of LHB he could make life tough. With the bats TB just doesnt impress me at the moment they are talented but raw and young. Dukes will start in center and Baldelli at DH. Mix in Upton at 2b with Zobrist , Ikawura at 3B and Navarro you have an abudnace of players who could be thinking about there first Opening Day @ Yankee Stadium no less. Dont forget that TB won just 20 games away last year and finished 3-31 when they went with the youth. Take out the 2005 abberation and wins @ the Stdium dont come often for TB who is taking some steps back early and playing youth.The reason the line is low is cause Pavano is the anti-christ. His public perception is at an all time low thanks to not pitching since 05 and what has happened inbewteen. From what I have seen Pavano has thrown strikes and thrown well in Spring . TB's pen is unproven but has some okay arms where I like my Yanks pen . I think Pavano throws strikes and with a free swinging TB team that is a major plus. They had 1 batter with more then 18 walks on the road last season.....thats beyond absurd...they dont work counts....NY will be honoring Lidle as his wife throws out the 1st pitch. Remember that he and Giambi go way back so that plays some significance IMO..Looking at playing the under dont see alot of offense as 6-4 seems like worst case....NYY hit .286 in the day vs .256 for TB


In Detriot ,looking hard at the Under. To be honest an AL game with an 8 total is concerning but at least Comerica is huge. I dont really see either lineup as being exceptional. The Jays have struggled all spring with the bats and are facing Bonderman. Bonderman who has pitched well vs Tor in the past has looked sharp this Spring. One concerning point is neither excels in Day starts. As well as Bonderman not pitching that well at homelast season. Toronto runs out Halladay and thats really all that needs to be said. The Tigers only have Granderson , Casey and Guillen from the LH side. Its been awhile since Roy has faced DET so not much to go on really.


In Washington , we have two solid young SP in a pitchers park. Patterson appears healthy now and was real sharp last season versus Florida. The Marlins have alot of young bats who need to prove last year was no fluke. If Spring Training is any concern then Fla could be in trouble. They didnt hit well in the Spring and why would that suddenly change. Wash runs alot of LHB out there and the lineup doesnt have much substance. The Keys are Zimmerman who is a beast and Kearns who hasnt hit D-Train well yet in his career despite slugging LHP. Thats really it mostly LH and SWH that dont fare well against LHP. Waiting on umpires...Oh an the Marlins pen stunk last year but has made some changes and has tremendous upside especially with Julio closing. They had 4 guys Messenger , Gregg , Lidstrom and Owens who allowed an incredible 6 earned runs in 53 spring innings. Remember gone are Soriano , Vidro , and Johnson replaced by Snelling , Guzman and Dmitri Young.


In Philly . I think Myers has the better track record vs his opponent. Only Renteria has hit Myers and the rest of ATL has basically struggled vs him. He has looked solid in the spring and had solid day splits last year. Smoltz has lost 4 of 5 vs Philly since returning to the rotation. Smoltz was a differnt SP on the road with a 4.21 ERA , 1.34 WHIP and .281 BAA not to mention his lack of success vs LHB ( see Phillys lineup!!). Rollins has owned him recently and that sets the table. Dont see alot of runs and lean Under 9 .


In Milw , have a strong preference for the under with2 quality SP on the hill . Lowe has exceled in hsi 3 career starts vs Milw including both last season. Sheets has been extremeful tough @ Miller Park and strong in day starts. The wind is something I will look into further before placing though. Furcal is OUT so Pierre becomes the man concern. Both teams lack power.

The 4 PM starts :
Over 9.5 +105 Arizona {2units}
Over 9.5 -115 KC {2units}
KC +155 {2.5 units} ARL -1.5 +280{1/2unit}

Reasons:

Think in Colorado we have two young but fairly solid lineups. Webb had some issues in day starts and McClelland tends to play over behind the dish. On the other side Cook has really struggled vs LHP and versus the Diamondbacks.


While Meche has had success against Boston I cant ignore KC's ERA during the day last season (above 6 ). If he does what he has done in the past you would expect about 4 runs in 6 innings if you get a quality start from Gil. Schilling had a near 5 ERA on the road last year and has been hit hard @ Kauffman past few times. KC did suck in day games last season but hopefully that changes here....As I mentioned Meche has had some success against Boston in his Seattle days both home and away. The Royals have won 5 of 6 from Boston past 2 seasons and as I mentioned Schilling was much different away from Fenway. Schilling had a 4.38 ERA during the day last season with a 4.75 ERA away on the road with 1.30 WHIP. His low K total in spring training should be a plus for this game. Now with Schilling though his road numbers tend to be extremes...extremely good or extermely bad so it really is just an average not a consistent type number..From a fans perspective as a SP i have a ton of respect for Schilling and not crazy about fading him on Opening Day. In recent metings he was above -200 in KC so in some ways this may be cheap but hey so where my yanks and looks like they found a way to lose today. Not sure if papelbons' tender ankle changes his status as closer today..GL