April 7th :


Early session : As always line shop


Yankees -200 {6units}

Not going to get all that in-depth here. The theme is BALT vs LHP. With the loss of Hernandez and Payton they have lost some weapons. Last season the O's were 5-21 on the ROAD vs LH SP. This year they lost to Johan Santana in the opener , who by the way is tougher on RHB cause of his change. You will see teams try to stack LHB against him. Tonite we saw Sean Henn throw 3 scoreless innings vs the O's allowing just 1 hit!!!


The SP is Igawa making his debut for NY. I think early on he was looking for his comfort zone and as spring went on he found it. In his NYM days Steve Traschel did a very sound job of pitching vs the Yanks . However they have the edges here with the LH SP , deeper pen , & Yanks playing much better then them during the DAY. With Rasner versus Bedard on Sunday this becomes a key game......The UNDER looks very attractive but I almost always wait till gameday for totals plays..

Thoughts on the rest of the Day schedule:

- Cubs @ Milw : Believe it or not neither SP has much success vs the opponent. Sheets looked awesome on Opening Day and that must be kept in mind. However MILW has won only 2 of his last 10 starts vs CHI. Zambrano has dropped 4 of 5 @ MILW....Lee owns Sheets but the rest of the TH should struggle and they are lacking from the LH side...In his opener Zambrano who could have the contract issues / stall hanging over his head couldnt get a LHB out...faced 9 allowed 4 hits (2hr's) and 3 BB's.....Ouch.. Looks like a coin toss here...

-Det @ KC : The Royals finally beat the Tigers at home (0-9 LYR). Maroth has been extremely solid in his recent outings @ Kauffman Stadium. Meche was solid on Opening Day and in his few outings vs DET recently. Discount Maroth' s last start in KC cause he was hurt and it was his last of the season before that 4 runs in 30 + innings there....so looking at the UNDER 9.5 ....KC didnt have any success vs LHP or in the day in 2006 if I recall correctly...

LAD @ SFG : being that Lowe stunk in the opener this game has lil value. Oh wait dont sleep on Russ Ortiz. It may not last long but right now he looks like a ML SP again....if LAD wins tonite then at these levels we could have some value in the SFG. However its customary to rest Bonds in day after Nite games so thats a caution...

Twins @ Sox: before the season started I though Silva might have a huge year ( for him). Now after watching the Spring I am certain this guy is mentally weak. he quit on his team last year and I thought that lead to an awakening. However when labeled as in a fight for a rotation spot he got shelled. The second he was announced as safe as SP he turned in his best performance. Which I called BTW! He was road kill last season. Still I prefer him to Javy who was smoked all ST. Worse is vazquez was lit up by Minny last year and has a piss poor track record vs them.....OVER 10..weather and ump..??

Mets @ Braves : The Mets are smoking hot and ATL has looked flat vs LHP. The get old fav Tom Glavine who seems to have worked out his ATL issues. Smoltz was solid in the opener and vs NYM last season...The NY bats have done alot of damage vs bullpens so far and timely hitting the rest....Carpenter was hurt , Wells and Looper IMO pitched very well vs them ...redman was decent till tiring and the pen got involved.....UNDER 8.5 most likelyWorking on the nite card...Good Luck

What a headache.....CappingtheGame is down and so was this Blogger shit!


What's the point with writeups now....

My plays were listed in the comment section here is a better listing.....

American League :

Orioles +1.5 RL +105 {2u} +2.10
Under 10-120 NYY {2.5u} PUSH
Tampa +110 {3.5 u} & -1.5 ARL +215 {1/2u} Win +3.35 net
Tigers -167 {3u} Loss-5.01



National League:

Philly -113 {3units} Win +3.00
Nats +105{2u} Loss -2.00
Under 9 +100 Nats {2u} Win +2.00
Pirates +105 {3u} & -1.5 ARL +160 {1u} Loss -4.00
Over 9.5 +105 Pitt {2u} Loss -2.00

adding @ 8PM...

Under 9 +100 Houston {2.5 u} Win +2.50
Houston +119 {1.5 u} -1.50

adding @ 10PM : (down -1.56 units heading into the late nite section)

LAA -110 {2.5u} Win +2.50
Over 9.5 +105 LAA{4u} Loss -4.00
SFG -104 {2.5units} Loss -2.60
Over 8.5 -105SFG {3units} Loss-3.15
Col +145 {1.5u} Win +2.18

Results -6.63 units

Didnt look at the rest of the NL card yet. Good Luck!

April 4th


SD @ SFG
Play : Giants -107 {5units} Lean UNDER

Looking at the changes to both teams SF seems to have gained some edges here. They have the former SD manager Bruce Bochy running the show as well as there leadoff hitter Dave Roberts. They acquired LHP Barry Zito thru free agency in the winter and SD lost two key bats vs LHP in Piazza and Barfield.

Some things that stand out for Jake Peavy are :
1: His performance @ AT&T Park

2006 18.2Inn 22H 12R 12ER 0Hr 6BB 9K 5.79ERA 1.50WHIP .293BAA in 3 starts.
Career 10st 6W 4L 63.0Inn 67H 30R 29ER 5HRr 22BB 41K 4.14ERA 1.41WHIP .271BAA

2: His day splits and road splits :

In Day starts he had 5.65 ERA 1.44 WHIP and .262 BAA in 12 starts(4-6). On the road 4.55 ERA , 1.35 WHIP , .257BAA. For his career he is 4.61 day ERA compared to 3.10 at nite as well as 4 road ERA compared to 3.07.

The Padres are a team that doesnt impress me. There lineup is a question mark IMO. As I mentioned earlier they lost two top hitters vs LHP in Piazza .359 8hrs and Barfield .331 7hrs. That means Bard and Gonzalez are there top threats vs LHP. Bard still has to show me he can do it for a full season. The rest of the lineup has inconsistencies and struggles. Marcus Giles hit just .229 vs LH but is .285 career mostly due to EXTREME inconsistencies. His brother a LHB hit .217 , Cameron the #3 hitter .252 last season , Greene 271. That leaves the young stud but unproven Kouzmanoff who was just 2/12 in limited ab's and Sledge who is LH and .247 career vs LHP. So while Zito at times has struggles with LHB and his Day splits are slightily worse then his nite splits I dont see Peavy as having the edge.

Factor in Bruce Bochy right out of the gates is trying to get revenge on his former team. I mean come on who lets there successful manager go straight to another divisional rival?? Thats a slap in the face. Peavy will have to face FOUR LHB at the top of the order with pesky du eof ROberts and Vizquel , followed by the rejuvanated Barry Bonds. Aurilia may not be the poster boy for offense but he smoked the ball in the 2nd H last season and it wasnt due to his home park . Molina has good day numbers and Winn is a better option then Sledge in the 8 spot.

The weak point for SFG is the pen. With some converted SP as setup guys as well as Chulk. I like the fact that despite Barry Zito signing for mega bucks he took the time to add 10 pounds to his lower body to increase velocity and worked on a new windup. He is showing he is trying to get better...Bonds is locked and healthy unlike last opening Day. Peavy has lost 3 of 4 @ SFG (and his PODS didnt hit 0,1 and 2 runs)while SFG won 11 of the last 13 meetings last season. You would think Zito's freshness is a plus since Peavy has faced SF so many times in recent years.

SD was just 6-11 on the road vs LHP.

April 2nd

Good start hitting NYM and the Under finishing +8.33 Units.

Early starts :
Yankees -165 {4units}
Under 10 -120 NYY {1unit}
Under 8 -115 Detriot {2 units}
Under 8 -105 Nationals {4units}
Phillies -110 {3units}
Under 8 -105 Milw {3units}
Brewers -110 {3units}

Reasons:-

With NYY it's real simple I am biased Homer fuck! In all seriousness I think Scott Kazmir is still working / feeling his way back from being shut down early last year with shoulder issues and being ordered to not throw over the winter. That puts him behind most SP at this point when he worked something like 16 innings this spring. I think its two-fold with him in that he wont be his sharpest and TB will baby him somewhat and maybe cap him at 6 innings . Though he doesnt usually get past the 6th on the road anyway. The other is Kazmir stastically is medicore on the road in young his career . NY hasn't hit him real well in the few meetings and with the abundance of LHB he could make life tough. With the bats TB just doesnt impress me at the moment they are talented but raw and young. Dukes will start in center and Baldelli at DH. Mix in Upton at 2b with Zobrist , Ikawura at 3B and Navarro you have an abudnace of players who could be thinking about there first Opening Day @ Yankee Stadium no less. Dont forget that TB won just 20 games away last year and finished 3-31 when they went with the youth. Take out the 2005 abberation and wins @ the Stdium dont come often for TB who is taking some steps back early and playing youth.The reason the line is low is cause Pavano is the anti-christ. His public perception is at an all time low thanks to not pitching since 05 and what has happened inbewteen. From what I have seen Pavano has thrown strikes and thrown well in Spring . TB's pen is unproven but has some okay arms where I like my Yanks pen . I think Pavano throws strikes and with a free swinging TB team that is a major plus. They had 1 batter with more then 18 walks on the road last season.....thats beyond absurd...they dont work counts....NY will be honoring Lidle as his wife throws out the 1st pitch. Remember that he and Giambi go way back so that plays some significance IMO..Looking at playing the under dont see alot of offense as 6-4 seems like worst case....NYY hit .286 in the day vs .256 for TB


In Detriot ,looking hard at the Under. To be honest an AL game with an 8 total is concerning but at least Comerica is huge. I dont really see either lineup as being exceptional. The Jays have struggled all spring with the bats and are facing Bonderman. Bonderman who has pitched well vs Tor in the past has looked sharp this Spring. One concerning point is neither excels in Day starts. As well as Bonderman not pitching that well at homelast season. Toronto runs out Halladay and thats really all that needs to be said. The Tigers only have Granderson , Casey and Guillen from the LH side. Its been awhile since Roy has faced DET so not much to go on really.


In Washington , we have two solid young SP in a pitchers park. Patterson appears healthy now and was real sharp last season versus Florida. The Marlins have alot of young bats who need to prove last year was no fluke. If Spring Training is any concern then Fla could be in trouble. They didnt hit well in the Spring and why would that suddenly change. Wash runs alot of LHB out there and the lineup doesnt have much substance. The Keys are Zimmerman who is a beast and Kearns who hasnt hit D-Train well yet in his career despite slugging LHP. Thats really it mostly LH and SWH that dont fare well against LHP. Waiting on umpires...Oh an the Marlins pen stunk last year but has made some changes and has tremendous upside especially with Julio closing. They had 4 guys Messenger , Gregg , Lidstrom and Owens who allowed an incredible 6 earned runs in 53 spring innings. Remember gone are Soriano , Vidro , and Johnson replaced by Snelling , Guzman and Dmitri Young.


In Philly . I think Myers has the better track record vs his opponent. Only Renteria has hit Myers and the rest of ATL has basically struggled vs him. He has looked solid in the spring and had solid day splits last year. Smoltz has lost 4 of 5 vs Philly since returning to the rotation. Smoltz was a differnt SP on the road with a 4.21 ERA , 1.34 WHIP and .281 BAA not to mention his lack of success vs LHB ( see Phillys lineup!!). Rollins has owned him recently and that sets the table. Dont see alot of runs and lean Under 9 .


In Milw , have a strong preference for the under with2 quality SP on the hill . Lowe has exceled in hsi 3 career starts vs Milw including both last season. Sheets has been extremeful tough @ Miller Park and strong in day starts. The wind is something I will look into further before placing though. Furcal is OUT so Pierre becomes the man concern. Both teams lack power.

The 4 PM starts :
Over 9.5 +105 Arizona {2units}
Over 9.5 -115 KC {2units}
KC +155 {2.5 units} ARL -1.5 +280{1/2unit}

Reasons:

Think in Colorado we have two young but fairly solid lineups. Webb had some issues in day starts and McClelland tends to play over behind the dish. On the other side Cook has really struggled vs LHP and versus the Diamondbacks.


While Meche has had success against Boston I cant ignore KC's ERA during the day last season (above 6 ). If he does what he has done in the past you would expect about 4 runs in 6 innings if you get a quality start from Gil. Schilling had a near 5 ERA on the road last year and has been hit hard @ Kauffman past few times. KC did suck in day games last season but hopefully that changes here....As I mentioned Meche has had some success against Boston in his Seattle days both home and away. The Royals have won 5 of 6 from Boston past 2 seasons and as I mentioned Schilling was much different away from Fenway. Schilling had a 4.38 ERA during the day last season with a 4.75 ERA away on the road with 1.30 WHIP. His low K total in spring training should be a plus for this game. Now with Schilling though his road numbers tend to be extremes...extremely good or extermely bad so it really is just an average not a consistent type number..From a fans perspective as a SP i have a ton of respect for Schilling and not crazy about fading him on Opening Day. In recent metings he was above -200 in KC so in some ways this may be cheap but hey so where my yanks and looks like they found a way to lose today. Not sure if papelbons' tender ankle changes his status as closer today..GL