Friday, October 05, 2007

Well my Yankees went down in flames yeterday. Its rea.lly not the upset its being made out to be. It was CC Sabathia on the hill and we do have a lackluster away record vs LHSP. Anyway my gripe is with Joe Torre and the media. It's the managers and coaching staff sole job to put his players in a position to succeed. Well letting Wang have 8 or 9 days bewteen starts is a RECIPE for disaster. We all know that such extended rest for a sinkerballer is a disaster waiting to happen. So why didnt Joe better set up his playof rotation?? Cause Joe does the same shit all the time , he hopes for the bst cause he is managing a roster full of All Stars. Well in l;ife hoping doesnt get you very much. Just ask his disiciple Willie Randolph at Shea. Guility of the aame crime. So IMO the game was lost when you had Wang on anything more then 6 days rest. Case closed! Has nothing to do with Wang so called suspect numebrs on the road...nothing!! Well Carmona is a similiar pitcher with his power to seamer arsenal. Wedge could be making the same mistake as Carmona has been rested since 9/26. I made a mistake taking such a low UNDER 8.5 / 9 in that situation. Alot of thing spointed to an over. However with roughly the same caliber SPs and available relievers we have a 9.5 / 10 total. Thats some value even with Carmona being a bit of a concern. You figure US Yankees are desperate. That means any close game could see Joba and Mo for 3 maybe even 4 innings of work with an off day on Saturday.

Numbers we have Pettitte winning 5-3 @ the Jake vs Westbrook and getting a 10 total. We have Laz Diaz 8.50 runs per game past 2 seasons and 22-14 UNDER this season. Of note Pettitte in the past has good career numbers when Diaz is behind the dish 5-1 record with the only loss being Scutaro walkoff HR vs Rivera. Sometrhing liek 14 runs in those 6 games by the opponents. This is basically a late day game where carmona had a 2.14 ERA and 9-1 record( 8-4 UNDER). Pettitte was 7-3 UNDER in the day and excluding his last start @ Balt had solid numbers. I think this is 5-3 or 5-4 game.....

In the early game like yanks but not the price so much. Might go with Yanks +110 series cause if we win here I like our chances....Shadows could play into this....

So far UNDER 10 runs ( 9.5 is good as well) GL

Side Note : NYY is 15-4 this year after allowing 10 runs. Which tells me they bounce back after bad beats. Remember the 19-1 drubbing Cle laid on us in 2006?? We won the next day!!! This year we are also 7-11-1 O/U in those 10 runs + situations. With the total in the 9 and 9.5 range (currently 9.5 runs here) Yanks 24-33 and Cle 31-44. Cle 20-28 O/U when facing LH's. We know about Pettitte's playoff pedigree and his Yankee stopper status. Cle is 13-23 o/u facing a team ith a winning record since the break and NYY is 23-12 in these situations SU. If I have this correct le is something like 53-89 O/U past 3 years in the day and I believe 12-31 o/u this season....also Carmona and Hughes total was 9.5 ....the price is justr to high for NYY for me...despite 4-0 in the ALDS after losing game 1 and game 2 of a series record 33-18 vs Cle 28-23...


What a fucking game!!! Props to both SP tonite. I cant believe those flies at the JAKE....seriously WTF is that ?? Thats how you beat Joba I guess. Let the flies loose and disrupt him on the mound...bottomline is 1 runs wasnt going to win the game...lets GO YANKEES!!!

I got tied up and the game just kicked off. Was really looking hard at the UNDER 62 / 63 but decided to pass. Had thought about the 1st half UNDER 31 as well. For some reason I was just scared to pull the trigger. Just looking at what the Ville has done outside of Murray State I dont think laying 2 TDS vs an improving Utah squad had value.

So I took the UTES +14.5...waiting to see what the Half score obviously I will be kicking myself if its lows like I thought...


Still thinking about the Over 9 @ Boston...same total as last nite with more question marks from the SP and Vlad better when he plays RF and the lineup is deeper with Rivera or Morales IMO...

Well upon further review I think both lineups have failed to see these SP which is a big plus for Dice K. Escobar last few @ Fenway have been solid. I think Escobars little rut was shoulder fatigue and he seemed solid @ Oak on Sat. I think we see a 5-4 game here worst case so I would only recommend an UNDER if you had 9.5...played it very small...very...almost not worth mentioning...really what drove me was the over reliance of recent stats from many people looking at this game...you have to understand why things happen IMO.......BOL GO YANKEES!!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Glad to see you back

SportsNut {Mike} said...

Thanks. Who is this BTW??

I needed a break to get my head straight.