Somewhat disappointed in myself cause I had a great read on yesterdays game and simply didnt go with it. Looking at Navy's pourous pass defense I knew Pitt would be able to score and my Pitts comments you knew they werent very confident in shutting down Navys attack. When your head coach says you need at least 28 to win thats an eye opener. Then seeing how Navy could not be stopped on offense I felt +2.5 and Over 28.5 were great plays. teams do make adjustments at half but they werent even close to stopping eachother in the 1st H. Anyway thats old news.

Tonite is a ral tough matchup. First I think Wake Forest is a fraud. I understand they have played better with Riley Skinner at QB but have they really. Look at the BC game they had 2 defensive TDS early. Still they trailed 35-21 to start the 4th quarter. Maryland had the game all but won. Except Steffy gets INT in the end zone and a 24-3 game in 3rd quarter would have been 27 -3 or 31-3. What happens is a 100 yd IN return to get the Terps back in and the collapse is on. Where was Wake till that point ?? Then last week vs Duke I dont know what to make of that game. I had Duke but Wake benefited from great field position all day. Duke's D isnt exactly known for stopping anyone and handcuffed with great field position to defend I can see why they allowed 34 points( 7 on a pick 6 as well). I dont see much fro the DD offense and really think there defense is sort of Cincy Bengal like. They like to gamble which leads to TO's for points but also to high ppg allowed.

FSU is improving but they are also getting the right opponents. One's that are almost equally offensive challenged. Colorado , Bama , NCST. The thing I see from the NCST game was some missed FGs and real bad starting field position in the 2nd H held the Seminole offense in check more then anything else. Still a work in progress with no running game vs a solid run defense. This game is all about Riley Skinner vs Xavier Lee.

What I am haing trouble with is being able to put a number on this game. Meaning I cant seem to figure out what I think the spread should be. I think the offenses relying solely on the passing game can keep this game low scoring if both defenses come to play from the opening snap.

Basically take my comments at this time with a grain of salt cause not much is clear to me here. I am guessing FSU wins by 7-10 points and they settle for a few FGs. Something 23-13 type game...anywahere in the 36-41 pt range.....EDUCATED GUESS...ONLY! Also I dont think Wake has a huge home field edge...

Crazy Pressure on the line down to -4 before I seen -4.5 so passed. Did play 1st Half Under 22

MLB : NLCS Rockies @ Dbacks

Long rest makes me wonder if the OVER is an attractive play. However the long layoff for the hitters is just as concerning especially faced with such quality SP. Also the Colorado rockie momentum is probably gone by now. It carried into Philly after the SD playoff win but the time out does kill that IMO.

Personally I think you have to go with Webb here. He is the better SP despite Francis success against Arizona and Webb's somewhat inconsistency vs COL. Remember this is the Colorado Rockies a 500 road team which is a major improvement for them over previous seasons(only 262 BAA away). Some things about stats. First Webb was excellent in night starts while Francis was very medicore with a near 5 ERA(4.92). I consider a 6 PM start a nice game ( local time) No one expected anything from Francis at Philly but he was in a great situational spot with a day start . Now his success against Arizona is a thing of the past. He started once late in the year vs Arizona and lost to Webb at home. Now Webb pitched vs Col twice in Sept. The 1st time he struggled in the 1st inning allowing 3 runs on his way to a 4-3 loss. However he allowed just 5 hits in 7 innings that day. Far from a bad start. He allowed 3 runs and 3 hits in the 1st inning but just 2 hits one of which was a solo blast in the next 6 innings. Then followed it up with 2 runs in 7 innings at Coors. Much of what happened for these respective SP was in April and May a very long time ago. I think we may again see a 4-2 game here..with anything under -140 being cheap IMO.....

Note: Zona 15-9 at home vs LHP and 14-6 L20 @ Home vs LHP....

Play : ARIZONA -125 (lean und 7.5)