April 4th


SD @ SFG
Play : Giants -107 {5units} Lean UNDER

Looking at the changes to both teams SF seems to have gained some edges here. They have the former SD manager Bruce Bochy running the show as well as there leadoff hitter Dave Roberts. They acquired LHP Barry Zito thru free agency in the winter and SD lost two key bats vs LHP in Piazza and Barfield.

Some things that stand out for Jake Peavy are :
1: His performance @ AT&T Park

2006 18.2Inn 22H 12R 12ER 0Hr 6BB 9K 5.79ERA 1.50WHIP .293BAA in 3 starts.
Career 10st 6W 4L 63.0Inn 67H 30R 29ER 5HRr 22BB 41K 4.14ERA 1.41WHIP .271BAA

2: His day splits and road splits :

In Day starts he had 5.65 ERA 1.44 WHIP and .262 BAA in 12 starts(4-6). On the road 4.55 ERA , 1.35 WHIP , .257BAA. For his career he is 4.61 day ERA compared to 3.10 at nite as well as 4 road ERA compared to 3.07.

The Padres are a team that doesnt impress me. There lineup is a question mark IMO. As I mentioned earlier they lost two top hitters vs LHP in Piazza .359 8hrs and Barfield .331 7hrs. That means Bard and Gonzalez are there top threats vs LHP. Bard still has to show me he can do it for a full season. The rest of the lineup has inconsistencies and struggles. Marcus Giles hit just .229 vs LH but is .285 career mostly due to EXTREME inconsistencies. His brother a LHB hit .217 , Cameron the #3 hitter .252 last season , Greene 271. That leaves the young stud but unproven Kouzmanoff who was just 2/12 in limited ab's and Sledge who is LH and .247 career vs LHP. So while Zito at times has struggles with LHB and his Day splits are slightily worse then his nite splits I dont see Peavy as having the edge.

Factor in Bruce Bochy right out of the gates is trying to get revenge on his former team. I mean come on who lets there successful manager go straight to another divisional rival?? Thats a slap in the face. Peavy will have to face FOUR LHB at the top of the order with pesky du eof ROberts and Vizquel , followed by the rejuvanated Barry Bonds. Aurilia may not be the poster boy for offense but he smoked the ball in the 2nd H last season and it wasnt due to his home park . Molina has good day numbers and Winn is a better option then Sledge in the 8 spot.

The weak point for SFG is the pen. With some converted SP as setup guys as well as Chulk. I like the fact that despite Barry Zito signing for mega bucks he took the time to add 10 pounds to his lower body to increase velocity and worked on a new windup. He is showing he is trying to get better...Bonds is locked and healthy unlike last opening Day. Peavy has lost 3 of 4 @ SFG (and his PODS didnt hit 0,1 and 2 runs)while SFG won 11 of the last 13 meetings last season. You would think Zito's freshness is a plus since Peavy has faced SF so many times in recent years.

SD was just 6-11 on the road vs LHP.