Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Tonite there is only one game to look at : Marshall @ Memphis in CFB.

At first glance we know both teams have poor defenses. I think what cant be missed is level of competition. Marshall has played WVU , @ Miami and @ Cincy. All 3 sport sound defenses and Cincy and Miami excel on that side of the ball. I know someone is thinking what about the loss at home to New Hamphsire. Well maybe it was a bit of a hangover after the collapse to WVU , maybe a bit of arrogance on there part after playing WVU so tough for 3 quarters , maybe Bernard Morris sitting mearly the entire 1st H?? Tough to decipher but New Hamp is somewhere around top 15 in 1 AA. Now how much different is a mid major then 1 AA these days?? What I am saying is the loss as bad as it looks?? Maybe not IMO. Alot of Marshall's points allowed IMO are due to the fact they have turned it over versus these tough defenses and I include WVU in that. The turnovers lead to short fields. Which in effect makes Marshall's defense look worse then it truly is. Memphis on the other hand hasnt played much of anyone getting shredded for 1000yards by Ark St and UCF ( which I think is an explosive offense for sure). The wildcard for them is the death of a player but also how they bounce back from there THURS collapse. No one knows how it effects them here. What I do know is the kid hadnt played at all this year. Which begs me to ask how much of a part of the team was he?? Horrible question to ask. There are those looking for Memphis pysche or motivation here. I just dont see this as the motivation angle its being used as. As well as the feeling at memphis of the bad stuff just piling on. You just had a historic collapse @ Ark St then 2 days later a teammate is murdered. The what next feeling has to be in there heads.

Then there is Memphis tough schedule with 3 games in 11 days or so. Not to underemphasize there collapse vs Ark St on Thursday , probably take Fri off , pratice and prepare for Marshall on Sat and Sun . Then the shocking , horrific news. With the twist that this murder seems premeditated and not a random act. Cant imagine much getting done on Monday @ Memphis. I think focus here is a monumental task for the Tigers. Marshall on the other hand is off a BYE WEEK with a ton of time to prepare and rest up ( get healthy). Where Memphis injuries dont have much time to heal. Certainly different personnel then last year but Marshall beat up Memphis pretty good. Bernard Morris is playing well and facing a so-so defense at best with injury issues. Now understand Morris missed nearly the entire 1st H vs NH and still threw for 417 yds and 3 scores!!!! WOW! The Thundering Herd should see a spike in rushing stats cause this isnt Miami , Cincy or WVU .

At first glance I thought memphis would get there first win here till I broke it down. I aksed myself does memphis know how to win?? They outplayed Ole Miss and lost and the 31-6 halftime lead @ Ark State that saw a 29-0 second half. I dont think they know how to win. Which would scare me backing them as chalk. Lastly I think a fair line is PKem but because of Marshall schedule and Memphis close losses its been inflated.....

My feeling is play Marshall ML or buy it to +3 if you rather feel safe..however I expect Marshall to win SU...will wait till halftime to see if a 2nd H over is worth it..usually would have to be a lower scoring 1st H GOOD LUCK

Side Note : watching ESPN pregame it looked like thye had a beautiful turnout for Taylor Bradford..very sad story..

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