Saturday Nite NBA Thoughts
Started real slow overthinking the Magic total and Bucks side plus losing a couple of tough totals by a bucket....also got screwed playing SEA about 30 seconds before the game got adjusted for Kobe..yet still finsihed +10 for the nite...
Friday +10.00
Saturday +16.35 / +4.00 / +0.92
Sides & Totals YTD +3.57
Team Totals +5.06
Parlays + 5.84
2nd H +5.00
7 Pm
Wizards -7.5 -106 (5x) & Under 200 -101 (2x) Lost -7.32 freakin 1/2 point
Right now Boston is having trouble scoring beyond Wally and Pierce who represent more then 50% of the Celtics points. Washington has rededicated it self to defense this preseason and I think once again BOS could struggle to break 90. You have great situational edges with Boston playing 3 rd in 4 nites while Wiz playing 1st game since WED. Boston also in a B-to-B.
Bobcats +4.5 -110 (5x) 1stH ML +130 (2x) 2nd H +2-110 (4x) SU win 92-88 +3.00 / +4.00
You have Cavs playing 3rd in 4 nites as is Charlotte . However Cavs opened at home vs Wash in rematch from last years playoffs, then traveled to SA to play and win a tough game versus SA. Charlotte was playing well vs Indiana early buy losing Wallace hurt them down the stretch. Last nite they fell apart in the 4th Q in Memphis after leading for much of the game. I think Char has played well in spurts and a nice letdown spot for Cle while Char is backed against a wall early.
7:30 Pm
NYK +3.5 -110 (4x) ML +140(1x) Loss -5.40
People are gonna jump off the NYK badwagon after the loss at Atlanta. Both teams playing 3rd in 4 nites so no edge there really. This is a new ERA in NY and Isiah has to get his team off on the right foot.....just remember that Ind was only -2 @ Charlotte on the opener! Indiana is getting killed on the glass early so look for that as a factor tonite.
Pistons -7 -110 (3x) Win by 9 +3.00
Basically this is where the Memphis defeciencies will show up....on the road. They are going to struggle offensively at times with aging vets and young stars...so the Palace is a tough venue. Especially when DET lost there home opener. Both teams are playing 3rd in 4 nites but Memphis played Triple OT , had a tremendous 4th quarter comeback last nite and now must travel to DET.....Detroit is 8-2 all-time against the Grizzlies (1-1) franchise at home, and has not lost consecutive games at the Palace of Auburn Hills since Dec. 18 and 22, 2004
Bucks -1-110 (5x) Win +5.00
Tough spot for a thin Sac squad playing 3rd road game in 4 nites. It was a huge effort by 6 players last nite to sneak out of CHI with a win. Keep on eye on Villaneuva's status here. Milwaukee gets there home opener here ...
Under 185 -112 Houston (5x) Rockets ML +115 (1x) SU win +6.15
Both teams with ample rest could actually see that backfire not playing for a few days. Houston and low scoring games go hand in hand......Last 3 games failed to break 180 bewteen these two and all the totals were in the high 170's
Warriors +6 -101 (4x) & Over 206.5 -110 (3x) Dumb plays sucker!Loss -7.34
Utah has played well but think this line got a little fat...they were home dogs in there opener. New look Utah though scroing 106 and 107 so far...expect both teams to play n the 100's.
Blazers +3 -108 (4x) ML +136 (1x)& Under 191 -108 (3x) SU Win +8.36
See a tough spot for Minny off a road win in DENVER and the thin air playing Portland in there home opener. Blazer beat them twice SU last season and almsot a third time.
LAC -4-107 (8x) & Over 212 -103 (3x) Wins +11.00
The line is exactly where it should be IMO>Both teams playing inconsistent BUT the run and gun Suns playing 4th game in 5 nites plus the second meting vs Pho. LAC hung with the Suns but couldnt do enough late on the road...now they are home.
Team Totals
Under 88 Memphis -117 (2x) W
Over 100.5 -108 Warriors (1x) L
Good Luck
Saturday, November 04, 2006
Friday, November 03, 2006
Friday NBA Thoughts
This early in the NBA season its hard to writeup plays cause really your basically playing perception versus a spread. There is no data to really go off and this past offseason seems to have more player movement then I can remember in recent seasons. So far my NBA sides and totals have been either dead on or way off. It seems that I have lost sides and totals in about 3 games this year which have killed my overall performance..I win a strong play its +6 I lose 2 plays in 1 game its usually -8 something. Opening Nite I was -15 x but because I had both Miami and the over , the next nite ran the table early about +18 but lose the last 5 sides and totals finish -3 but do well with parlays and team totals, last nite have Dal and the under...
been real streaky so far but this is a new season and a learning process.
Sides & Totals -22.78
Team Totals +5.00
Parlays + 5.84
2nd H +1.00
Friday Nite
Early starts 7 PM tips:
Over 207 -107 Milw & Tor (3x)
Gonna wait to see how far this drops. What I like is Toronto looking to play up tempo basketball versus a Buck team who has struggled with defense . We have the subpot of TJ vs Villanueva in the new enviroments. Personally I want to play the Raptors but on the fence.. In the openers Tor managed 94 shots and Milw 93 but need to do better from 3 pt land and getting to the FT line(which Milw allowed DET to do).
Over 191 -109 Orlando & Philly (reduced size) (1x)
I had a change on this cause I didnt realize Orlando went to the line 42 times last game and shot 35 of 59 thats gonna be tough to duplicate. Philly has to see if anyone else is clicking besides AI right now as Webber really struggled. I guess you can figure CHI was tired which led to poor defense and alot of fouls which becomes a high FG percentage for Orlando and alot of trips to the line....Now I am question if these teams do better then low 90's. Also gonna ride PHILLY 1st H +3 -105 (2x)
Over 195 -110 Indiana & NO (3x) Over 194 +101 (2x) now 192
Looking to continue to play Indiana overs early as I did on opening nite. A very different makeup with Indiana who also now looks to push the ball. NO missed 15 FT's the opener and still managed 91 points...expecting a close game and better FT shootings should put NI into the upper 90;s instead of low 90's...have to like Indiana here as Boston also missed a ton of FTs versus NO and would rank IND higher then Boston.
Det @ Boston
Passing at the moment. I dont think DET played that poorly in the opener but smae could be same said for Boston. Basically two teams looking for identities and to establish themselves.
Tends to be a high scoring game so I played the Over 193 -115 (2x)...
Under 204 Atl & NYK -101 (3x)
Hawks lost Harrington in the offseason and his replacement in the lineup Marvin Williams got hurt in camp. That means Rookie Shelden Williams gets the nod and he is limited offensively. Speedy Claxton was also injured in camp and never got in shape. He also played poorly in the opener. NYK defeated or outlasted Memphis in Triple OT after blowing yet another lead......good 1st H team and great 2nd H fade IMO....until they prove diifferently. NY shot fairly well but still ended regulation with just 89 after a slow 4th Q. Francis and Frye struggled offensively while Q probably played his best game as Knick.....would love to take +3 with NY here. Problem is did triple OT leave them dead legged so early in the year?? Not sure what to expect.....
NJNets +4 .5+100 (3x)
I am sure this a popular play after Miami's loss on opening nite. I just dont see any excuse for there play. They spoke about how they wanted to do it again and they looked awful in the game....they couldnt hit anything and until they make some shots outside of Wade or Shaq I will fade...like the over but dont like taking overs afterteams score less then 70 previous game.
Charlotte @ Memphis
I dont know what to expect from either. Memphis showed alot IMO versus NY and the Bobcats unraveled without Wallace in the game. Dont see much scoring from either.....going UNDER
189.5 -111 (2x)
Cavs +5.5 -104 (3x)
This is a play simply fading SA in a back to back situation where they performed poorly last year. Parker with a gimpy ankle probably could use a day off. Not to mention they played a tough game in Dallas. Despite prior struggles in SA look for LEbron to keep it close here.
Kings +6 -110 (3x)
Sac lost Bibby and collapsed against Minny. Tough spot for Bulls already playing 3rd in 4 nites. Looking at the UNDER 185..
Over 199.5 -112 Denver(3x)
They are going to shot alot this Nugget team they just need to make some...
Jazz +7 -111 (8x) & over 211 -112 (3x)
Suns playing 3rd in 4 nite and versus a team that boasts size on them. Bad spot should be a battle and like the new look offense from Utah.
Sonics +4.5 -113 (5x) ML +163 (1x)
Fading LAL now that they are chalk and SEA off a SU loss as 8 pt favs. Bynum hurting now could leave the middle open...
Warriors -9.5 -109 (4x)
Wanted this @ -8.5. Blazers are young and Warriors have owned them last 5 meetings. There is no reason to believe that will change.
Team totals
Over 102.5 Nuggets -119 (2x)
Over 102.5 Jazz-105 (1.5x)
This early in the NBA season its hard to writeup plays cause really your basically playing perception versus a spread. There is no data to really go off and this past offseason seems to have more player movement then I can remember in recent seasons. So far my NBA sides and totals have been either dead on or way off. It seems that I have lost sides and totals in about 3 games this year which have killed my overall performance..I win a strong play its +6 I lose 2 plays in 1 game its usually -8 something. Opening Nite I was -15 x but because I had both Miami and the over , the next nite ran the table early about +18 but lose the last 5 sides and totals finish -3 but do well with parlays and team totals, last nite have Dal and the under...
been real streaky so far but this is a new season and a learning process.
Sides & Totals -22.78
Team Totals +5.00
Parlays + 5.84
2nd H +1.00
Friday Nite
Early starts 7 PM tips:
Over 207 -107 Milw & Tor (3x)
Gonna wait to see how far this drops. What I like is Toronto looking to play up tempo basketball versus a Buck team who has struggled with defense . We have the subpot of TJ vs Villanueva in the new enviroments. Personally I want to play the Raptors but on the fence.. In the openers Tor managed 94 shots and Milw 93 but need to do better from 3 pt land and getting to the FT line(which Milw allowed DET to do).
Over 191 -109 Orlando & Philly (reduced size) (1x)
I had a change on this cause I didnt realize Orlando went to the line 42 times last game and shot 35 of 59 thats gonna be tough to duplicate. Philly has to see if anyone else is clicking besides AI right now as Webber really struggled. I guess you can figure CHI was tired which led to poor defense and alot of fouls which becomes a high FG percentage for Orlando and alot of trips to the line....Now I am question if these teams do better then low 90's. Also gonna ride PHILLY 1st H +3 -105 (2x)
Over 195 -110 Indiana & NO (3x) Over 194 +101 (2x) now 192
Looking to continue to play Indiana overs early as I did on opening nite. A very different makeup with Indiana who also now looks to push the ball. NO missed 15 FT's the opener and still managed 91 points...expecting a close game and better FT shootings should put NI into the upper 90;s instead of low 90's...have to like Indiana here as Boston also missed a ton of FTs versus NO and would rank IND higher then Boston.
Det @ Boston
Passing at the moment. I dont think DET played that poorly in the opener but smae could be same said for Boston. Basically two teams looking for identities and to establish themselves.
Tends to be a high scoring game so I played the Over 193 -115 (2x)...
Under 204 Atl & NYK -101 (3x)
Hawks lost Harrington in the offseason and his replacement in the lineup Marvin Williams got hurt in camp. That means Rookie Shelden Williams gets the nod and he is limited offensively. Speedy Claxton was also injured in camp and never got in shape. He also played poorly in the opener. NYK defeated or outlasted Memphis in Triple OT after blowing yet another lead......good 1st H team and great 2nd H fade IMO....until they prove diifferently. NY shot fairly well but still ended regulation with just 89 after a slow 4th Q. Francis and Frye struggled offensively while Q probably played his best game as Knick.....would love to take +3 with NY here. Problem is did triple OT leave them dead legged so early in the year?? Not sure what to expect.....
NJNets +4 .5+100 (3x)
I am sure this a popular play after Miami's loss on opening nite. I just dont see any excuse for there play. They spoke about how they wanted to do it again and they looked awful in the game....they couldnt hit anything and until they make some shots outside of Wade or Shaq I will fade...like the over but dont like taking overs afterteams score less then 70 previous game.
Charlotte @ Memphis
I dont know what to expect from either. Memphis showed alot IMO versus NY and the Bobcats unraveled without Wallace in the game. Dont see much scoring from either.....going UNDER
189.5 -111 (2x)
Cavs +5.5 -104 (3x)
This is a play simply fading SA in a back to back situation where they performed poorly last year. Parker with a gimpy ankle probably could use a day off. Not to mention they played a tough game in Dallas. Despite prior struggles in SA look for LEbron to keep it close here.
Kings +6 -110 (3x)
Sac lost Bibby and collapsed against Minny. Tough spot for Bulls already playing 3rd in 4 nites. Looking at the UNDER 185..
Over 199.5 -112 Denver(3x)
They are going to shot alot this Nugget team they just need to make some...
Jazz +7 -111 (8x) & over 211 -112 (3x)
Suns playing 3rd in 4 nite and versus a team that boasts size on them. Bad spot should be a battle and like the new look offense from Utah.
Sonics +4.5 -113 (5x) ML +163 (1x)
Fading LAL now that they are chalk and SEA off a SU loss as 8 pt favs. Bynum hurting now could leave the middle open...
Warriors -9.5 -109 (4x)
Wanted this @ -8.5. Blazers are young and Warriors have owned them last 5 meetings. There is no reason to believe that will change.
Team totals
Over 102.5 Nuggets -119 (2x)
Over 102.5 Jazz-105 (1.5x)
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Sunday Week 9 NFL & NBA included
In a backwards mood so starting with the last game first......the Monday Nighter OAK @ SEA
Raiders +9 -116 (5x) probably will middle this great chance of SEA by 7
Basically Oakland plays defense week in week out and Seattle has stopped anyone in over a month...161 pts last 5 wtha low of 28 allowed. I thought Seneca Wallace played fairly well but his ack of experience still leaves him mistake prone. I 'll give Seneca the nod over Walter though but at best the RB are equal(actually like OAKs better). Darrell Jackson has missed a couple of pratices and that puts him in question. Lechler is a solid punter and that should help. The key is the offense of Oakland not giving up field position like they did @ SF and @ Baltimore..
Patriots -2.5 -120 (8x) & Over 25.5 team -128 (2x)
Well I faded Indy last week and they hung around in Denver now another tough matchup @ NE. Remember how Indy smoked them when the NE secondary depleted well that was the only time Peyton Manning won in NE. NE has a significant edge in DEFENSE. The colts have been unable to stop opposing RB's and here comes the duo of Dillon and Maroney. Brady has the passing game clicking now iwth 4 options @ WR ~ Caldwell , Gabriel , Brown and Jackson plus TE Watson. This team is starting to click as evidence by the MNF rout. The colts secondary has issues at safety and if Diem is OUT on the OL there will be a rookie with zero NFL starts in his place. While many wont believe this cause DEN won @ NE I think on a neutral field NE is -1.5 pts stronger...
4 PMs
Denver @ Pitt
So the public doesnt understand this line. real simple last year in the playoffs Broncos were -3 at home vs Pitt and got stampeded...that means if Pitt was home they would be at least -3...whats really changed for these teams? Denver added Walker but has Tatum Bell banged up. For Pitt the lost a couple of players here and there * the Bus) but the difference is Big Bens health and his mistakes. He single handly lost the game @ Jax , vs Cincy and @ Oakland. Remember that Denver is weaker then NE and basically -3 is a fair line....
Indy showed how to pick apart the zone last week and if Tatum is ailing the yards wont come easy versus Pitts front. Which means more pressure on Jake.....
If I play this its Pitt or pass....
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) Have to say Minny is now getting attractive, middle?
This is not cause Minny looked so bad on MNF...I expected that to a degree. Its because the offense has issues and banged up key players. You can throw on Minnesota and The 49ers problem has been stopping teams not scoring on them....alway love getting SF at home after being embarrassed away. SD & Philly have stomped young SF at home but Minnesota is not in that class of talent. The over is intriguing as SF allowed 34 in every game but two....and Minnys D is ailing.....
Over 41 waiting (5x) SD & Cle
The Chargers offense is maturing under Rivers and the Browns cannot stop the run. SD with Meriman now out is missing the core of its defense from last season (Merriman , Phillips , Foley and Olshansky). New look Browns should be able to score enough to remain comeptitive. Not crazy about laying the Chalk......
1PM
Redskins +3 +102 buy to 3.5 though... also Under 41
Love the Skins at home off a BYE finally healthy on defense. Getting Dallas off a national TV comeback win on the road......This should be aPKem. Let Tony Romo do it for awhile before we annoit him anything. The key is really Wash defense getting healthy..look for a low scoring game..... and for Skins to go deep even w/o Santana Moss. Lloyd becomes part of the offense... Dallas defense played well at Carolina , Skins w/o Moss and Skins defense finallyhealtyhy getting Romoe 2nd start..
Atl @ Det
Both teams have key defensive players missing and its shown in the boxscore lately. In the past 3 games ATL has allowed 27,38 and 27. While Det has allowd at least 26 in every game(mostly 30+) since the opener. Now the FAlcons appear to have found a balanced attack on offense and this smeels of a shoot out IMO>Plus the Lions are off a BYE WEEK . The Lions offense has scored at least 20 something since Game 3 outside of the 17 @ Minny which is imprressive looking at that Viking defense. So as this number continues to rise its starts to maek DET look attractive in the +6 or +7 range . What I am hoping is the total slides lower so we can play the over.
Cincy @ Balt
With a better defense by leaps and bounds plus home field you have to like the RAvens here. Cincy has lost 3 of 4 and is a late TD away from being ona 4 game slide. They are decimated at LB and Jamal Lewis looked solid last week. Double revenge spot for Balt.
GB @ Buff
The Bills looked like crap like they always do vs NE at home. The Packers have been a good road DOG OF 6 + but here they are just a FG. I think GB is so depleted at WR and RB it has to catch up to them. Lean towards the home Buffs off the bye as they got healthy.
Hou @ NYG
Staying away from this game. NY is banged up with Chi on deck and might teake it easy here sort of like they did vs TB. They have numerous key defensive players injured. Houston has looked awful on the road but I think they could backdorr NY here.
KC @ StL
With KC defense allwoing alot of points lately I rather play the home team. KC pulled off nice hoe wins vs SD as 6 pt dogs and versus a star-less Seattlle team. Doesnt look like either defense can stop anyone lately.....KC poor track record on Turf.
Miami @ Chi
Think this is to high. SF deserved to be closer to -20 cauise they stink on the road . Miami even with Harrington deserves closer to +10 thanks to there defense. They are off a BYE and Chio has the Sunday Niter on deck. It will be interesting to watch CHI offense here and I think its inside 10pts here
Tenny @ Jax
Both teams suffering from injuries on defense but Tenny probably cant overcome them. JAgs defense is as solid a sthey come and Tenny mighty no break 10 here.....big number but klike Jax as Jags can run.
NO @ TB
Have to look at injuries but like the home dog......thought TB would be -1.5 here..
Looking at the rest of the 1 PMs still...not a great football week! Good Luck & Feel free to comment
Todays Plays ~
Redskins +3.5 -110 (8x) & Under 41.5 -110 (3x) ML +160 (1.5x) 22-19 Skins +13.40
Teams playing bad dont scare me. We know about there issues and Santana Moss being OUT. However they still have Lloyd and Randle El in the passing game along with Cooley and Portis. Romo is making his second career start and is already road chalk versus a division rival. With all things being equal this game should be a PKem. Really liked how Dallas played on defense last week and Skins finally have a healthy defense. Expect Greg Williams to try and confuse Romo as much as possible and SUCCEED at it! Silly trend DOG is 17-5-1 L22 of the series. Boys are 7-19-2 ATS after 14 + wins , 7-22 ATS as road chalk. Skins are 8-2 ATS after a BYE week and 4-1 L5 as home Doggie..
TB Bucs ML -108 (5x) Loss -5.40
From the get go I thought tB should have been -2 here. They have done little on offense past 3 weeks but I think Gruden needed that wakeup call last week. The Saints D has shown some holes recently and look for Cadillac to get established here. On the NO side they have some OL injuries but Bush has a sprained ankle and Horn is doubtful with a groin problem.... Though about the Under but its very close ...Two key injuries on TB defense Rice and Wyms stay tuned on those...
Bills -3-120 (4x) Won +4.00
At first glance Bills favored by more then 3 to GB...Then you start looking at see GB was 6.5 pt dogs in Det while Buffalo was 1 pt favs! Sure GB won SU by a TD and Buff lost by 3 but those lines although somewhat wrong said GB was 3.5 pts weaker then DET and Buff was 4 points stronger..Personally I think its more Bills 1.5 pts stronger then DET and GB 1.5 pts weaker..which means BILLS are 3 pts stronger and 3 more points for hoem field make -6 a better number. GB does well as a big dog of 6 or better not the case here and Buff is rested and tough ATS in NOV historically. GB is 1-6 ATS after a SU win. Bills are 12-4 ATS vs losing teams and 12-5 ATS as fav. Actually thinking Under 41 here...
Ravens -2.5 -130 (4x) & -2.5 -110 (1x) Won +5.00
Really Cincy is in disarray thanks to injuries to there LB corps and OL. The OL injuries hurt there pass protection with Palmer off surgery(who also has injured WRs to deal with) and the running game has less holes. There LB shortcomings allow other teams to run on them and Jamal Lewis finally broke a hundo last week. The Ravens defense isjust head and shoulders above Cincys and thats where this game is won with Cncy offense out of sync. Also thinking an under 42 here...
Lions +6 -110 (3x) & Over 47 -110 (3x) Lions win SU- 0.30
As I explained previously both teams have been scoring in the 20's and ATL actually upper 20's lately. Both teams have been allowing at least 28 a game past few weeks. Both teams missing key players on injuries. Game indoors on turf stresses SPEED.
Dolphins +14 -120 (3x) & Under 37.5 -110 (5x) 2nd H Under 19.5 -102 (3x) SU win -2.50 / -3.06
It has to be a plus to be off a BYE week and having CHI playing on Sunday Nite versus the Hot NYG. Miami's Defense is much better then the D's of the Lions , Seahawks , Bills and 49ers the 4 teams CHI has routed at home. Last week was a special spot as CHI was off a Bye and embarassing prime time game. Therefore the line was soft. Think about SF is +10 at home vs SD which means +17 away...Chi is a little tougher IMO then SD right now so really we should have see 18 or -19 on that but yet the public saw SF value @ +16. Now the betting market will see people willing to lay 14 or 13 with CHI against a better 'bad' team. Harrington is familiar with CHI and the key is not INTS but BAD INT's. The ones that take points off the board Or give points to Chi. If anyone thinks SF on the road is somewhat similiar to Miami on the road they should rethink wagering on sports. SF ia not competitive on the road and regularly allows 35 + points. Miami is almost always competitive but just finds way to lose...see @ Pitt , @ NYJ and @NE....Chi schedule has been so weak its actually laughable...toughest opponent a very medicore SEA team without Alexander. Phins allow 3 YPC away and that means Grossman most do more here... Bears 4-0 TAS home and Phins 0-4 ATS away...low scoring game today 20-10 type. out of respect for CHI I kept it small...
Still looking @ NYG / Hou , StL / KC , Ten / Jax....
My last decisions were:
Texans +7 .5 -120 (1.5x) & +13 -116 (1.5x) Win +3.00
NY is to banged up here and will take Hou lightily IMHO...no Plax means O struggles more.
STL ML -138 (3x) Loss -4.14
Rams are a long FG away from being 3-0 at home while KC is a fg away from 0-3...liked the over but KC struggles away make me rethink and wait for 2nd H.
Team totals -2.20
Over 26-108 ATL (1.5x) L
Und 22.5 +110 KC (1.5x) L
Und 19 -108 Cincy (1x) L
Und 28 -121 NYG (1x) W
Under 25 -111 Chi (1x) W
Teaser +6.00
Under 58 KC , Under 51.5 Cincy, Over 31 Buff (3x) W
Under 58 KC , Und 51.5 Cincy , Undre 51 Dal (3x) W
4PM's
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) SU Win +5.00
Hate that this line dropped so far but Minny is DOME team playing outdoors. Therefore I will stay on it...Like the over but waiting for halftime see an slow 1st Half(slow and low)
Over 41 -106 SD (7x) and Cle +13.5 -110 (5x) Win +12.00
Not sure how teh Browns do it but they keep it close just about every it game it seems. Like the fact Frye ha some free reign now and SD lost its heart on defense Merriman...
Steelers -2.5 -110 (5x) Loss -5.50 2nd H Over 19.5 -111 (2x)Win +2.00 & pitt -7.5 +219 2nd H (1x) L (net +1.00 2nd H)
Broncos are better but w/o Bell this is tough matchup for them. Big Ben is the key here
as he killed Pitt many atime this year...think last week @ Jax and vs Cincy...
Night game
Played NE -2.5 -120 (8x) and team total over 25.5 -128 NE (2x)
Under 49 -120 (3x) & Under 24 1st H -104 (1x)
Comments are above but looking at the under 49 ish here. NE is very similiar to Denver and the total was 37-40 depending on when you played it 45 is fair here IMO. Be back shortly . Last time we saw such ahigh total in this matchup we saw 20-3 witha 51 number. Befoe last meeting Indy couldnt break 24 in NE. This Pats defense is just as good as the prior D's and not sure Indy O can claim that with Stokley ailing and issues at RB..Rhodes hurting and Addai questionable in pass protection...27 -17 final IMHO.....
NBA @ 1PM
Raptors +7 -108 (2.5x) ML +242 (1/2x) change in plans 2nd H Spurs -3.5 -108 (2.5x) & Over 99.5 -120 (2x) Loss -0.70 / +2.00 2nd H
With SA off a loss it seems they are hopping on TOR here. The raptors had covered 5 straight before barely missing the cash in OT in the last meeting by a bucket. The new look Raps flying under the radar have played well in both games and SA 3rd in 4 nites plus the early start..SA 1-9 ATS last 10 sunday games...with NY on deck for 4th in 5 nites they will be a fade on Monday as well...
Hawks +4 -110 (3x) & Over 194 -110 (6x) 2nd H over 96 +108 (2x) -3.60
The Hawks at home just are a much different team. there so young that you cant pay attention to how they play on the road.
Philly +3 -109 (5x) 2nd H Over 93.5 -120 (2x) SU win +5.00 / +2.00
Extremely unimpressed with Miami's play to date
Net +0.70 sides & totals / 2nd H +4.00
Nite hoops~
Sonics see -1-110 (8x)
Though Seattle played very well against them and it seems as if SEA feels they was robbed! They felt the 48 -16 FT attempt difference(30-16 fouls) was the difference in the game as was the no calls late for there players. Had this game @ -2 so its pretty accurate IMO. Both teams scoring a ton but I think home court is the edge here...like the over at 212 ish... I wonder if Kobe shows some rust here? Why here? Alot of times adrenaline carries a player and that could have happened for a guy who missed all of preseason. His shot can also be inconsistent from game to game without the proper reps... Tough spot for LAL trying to beat the same team twice in 3 days.....also you could already see LAL get Kobe a ton of minutes and slowly pahse out some guys like Evans , Vuscic , and Vladdy...(IMO).
Under 188 -110 (5x) Houston & NO (186) WIn +5.00
Played this last nite but its now 183....which I think took away alot of the value. Probably would say play the 1st H under instead. Still thinking about the NO Hornets here. WHy the total? Sort of self explanatory with Houston always play a slow pace and hitting everything they shot yesterday.... be back on this one......Would recommend this game even at 182 but again better idea might be 1st H under...
This site was down and I added NO ML -114 (5x)Win +5.00 & 1st H under 92.5 -109 (2x) Win +2.00 (90@ half..bit of sweat there) 2nd Hedge Over 90.5-105 (1.5x) Win
Good Luck
In a backwards mood so starting with the last game first......the Monday Nighter OAK @ SEA
Raiders +9 -116 (5x) probably will middle this great chance of SEA by 7
Basically Oakland plays defense week in week out and Seattle has stopped anyone in over a month...161 pts last 5 wtha low of 28 allowed. I thought Seneca Wallace played fairly well but his ack of experience still leaves him mistake prone. I 'll give Seneca the nod over Walter though but at best the RB are equal(actually like OAKs better). Darrell Jackson has missed a couple of pratices and that puts him in question. Lechler is a solid punter and that should help. The key is the offense of Oakland not giving up field position like they did @ SF and @ Baltimore..
Patriots -2.5 -120 (8x) & Over 25.5 team -128 (2x)
Well I faded Indy last week and they hung around in Denver now another tough matchup @ NE. Remember how Indy smoked them when the NE secondary depleted well that was the only time Peyton Manning won in NE. NE has a significant edge in DEFENSE. The colts have been unable to stop opposing RB's and here comes the duo of Dillon and Maroney. Brady has the passing game clicking now iwth 4 options @ WR ~ Caldwell , Gabriel , Brown and Jackson plus TE Watson. This team is starting to click as evidence by the MNF rout. The colts secondary has issues at safety and if Diem is OUT on the OL there will be a rookie with zero NFL starts in his place. While many wont believe this cause DEN won @ NE I think on a neutral field NE is -1.5 pts stronger...
4 PMs
Denver @ Pitt
So the public doesnt understand this line. real simple last year in the playoffs Broncos were -3 at home vs Pitt and got stampeded...that means if Pitt was home they would be at least -3...whats really changed for these teams? Denver added Walker but has Tatum Bell banged up. For Pitt the lost a couple of players here and there * the Bus) but the difference is Big Bens health and his mistakes. He single handly lost the game @ Jax , vs Cincy and @ Oakland. Remember that Denver is weaker then NE and basically -3 is a fair line....
Indy showed how to pick apart the zone last week and if Tatum is ailing the yards wont come easy versus Pitts front. Which means more pressure on Jake.....
If I play this its Pitt or pass....
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) Have to say Minny is now getting attractive, middle?
This is not cause Minny looked so bad on MNF...I expected that to a degree. Its because the offense has issues and banged up key players. You can throw on Minnesota and The 49ers problem has been stopping teams not scoring on them....alway love getting SF at home after being embarrassed away. SD & Philly have stomped young SF at home but Minnesota is not in that class of talent. The over is intriguing as SF allowed 34 in every game but two....and Minnys D is ailing.....
Over 41 waiting (5x) SD & Cle
The Chargers offense is maturing under Rivers and the Browns cannot stop the run. SD with Meriman now out is missing the core of its defense from last season (Merriman , Phillips , Foley and Olshansky). New look Browns should be able to score enough to remain comeptitive. Not crazy about laying the Chalk......
1PM
Redskins +3 +102 buy to 3.5 though... also Under 41
Love the Skins at home off a BYE finally healthy on defense. Getting Dallas off a national TV comeback win on the road......This should be aPKem. Let Tony Romo do it for awhile before we annoit him anything. The key is really Wash defense getting healthy..look for a low scoring game..... and for Skins to go deep even w/o Santana Moss. Lloyd becomes part of the offense... Dallas defense played well at Carolina , Skins w/o Moss and Skins defense finallyhealtyhy getting Romoe 2nd start..
Atl @ Det
Both teams have key defensive players missing and its shown in the boxscore lately. In the past 3 games ATL has allowed 27,38 and 27. While Det has allowd at least 26 in every game(mostly 30+) since the opener. Now the FAlcons appear to have found a balanced attack on offense and this smeels of a shoot out IMO>Plus the Lions are off a BYE WEEK . The Lions offense has scored at least 20 something since Game 3 outside of the 17 @ Minny which is imprressive looking at that Viking defense. So as this number continues to rise its starts to maek DET look attractive in the +6 or +7 range . What I am hoping is the total slides lower so we can play the over.
Cincy @ Balt
With a better defense by leaps and bounds plus home field you have to like the RAvens here. Cincy has lost 3 of 4 and is a late TD away from being ona 4 game slide. They are decimated at LB and Jamal Lewis looked solid last week. Double revenge spot for Balt.
GB @ Buff
The Bills looked like crap like they always do vs NE at home. The Packers have been a good road DOG OF 6 + but here they are just a FG. I think GB is so depleted at WR and RB it has to catch up to them. Lean towards the home Buffs off the bye as they got healthy.
Hou @ NYG
Staying away from this game. NY is banged up with Chi on deck and might teake it easy here sort of like they did vs TB. They have numerous key defensive players injured. Houston has looked awful on the road but I think they could backdorr NY here.
KC @ StL
With KC defense allwoing alot of points lately I rather play the home team. KC pulled off nice hoe wins vs SD as 6 pt dogs and versus a star-less Seattlle team. Doesnt look like either defense can stop anyone lately.....KC poor track record on Turf.
Miami @ Chi
Think this is to high. SF deserved to be closer to -20 cauise they stink on the road . Miami even with Harrington deserves closer to +10 thanks to there defense. They are off a BYE and Chio has the Sunday Niter on deck. It will be interesting to watch CHI offense here and I think its inside 10pts here
Tenny @ Jax
Both teams suffering from injuries on defense but Tenny probably cant overcome them. JAgs defense is as solid a sthey come and Tenny mighty no break 10 here.....big number but klike Jax as Jags can run.
NO @ TB
Have to look at injuries but like the home dog......thought TB would be -1.5 here..
Looking at the rest of the 1 PMs still...not a great football week! Good Luck & Feel free to comment
Todays Plays ~
Redskins +3.5 -110 (8x) & Under 41.5 -110 (3x) ML +160 (1.5x) 22-19 Skins +13.40
Teams playing bad dont scare me. We know about there issues and Santana Moss being OUT. However they still have Lloyd and Randle El in the passing game along with Cooley and Portis. Romo is making his second career start and is already road chalk versus a division rival. With all things being equal this game should be a PKem. Really liked how Dallas played on defense last week and Skins finally have a healthy defense. Expect Greg Williams to try and confuse Romo as much as possible and SUCCEED at it! Silly trend DOG is 17-5-1 L22 of the series. Boys are 7-19-2 ATS after 14 + wins , 7-22 ATS as road chalk. Skins are 8-2 ATS after a BYE week and 4-1 L5 as home Doggie..
TB Bucs ML -108 (5x) Loss -5.40
From the get go I thought tB should have been -2 here. They have done little on offense past 3 weeks but I think Gruden needed that wakeup call last week. The Saints D has shown some holes recently and look for Cadillac to get established here. On the NO side they have some OL injuries but Bush has a sprained ankle and Horn is doubtful with a groin problem.... Though about the Under but its very close ...Two key injuries on TB defense Rice and Wyms stay tuned on those...
Bills -3-120 (4x) Won +4.00
At first glance Bills favored by more then 3 to GB...Then you start looking at see GB was 6.5 pt dogs in Det while Buffalo was 1 pt favs! Sure GB won SU by a TD and Buff lost by 3 but those lines although somewhat wrong said GB was 3.5 pts weaker then DET and Buff was 4 points stronger..Personally I think its more Bills 1.5 pts stronger then DET and GB 1.5 pts weaker..which means BILLS are 3 pts stronger and 3 more points for hoem field make -6 a better number. GB does well as a big dog of 6 or better not the case here and Buff is rested and tough ATS in NOV historically. GB is 1-6 ATS after a SU win. Bills are 12-4 ATS vs losing teams and 12-5 ATS as fav. Actually thinking Under 41 here...
Ravens -2.5 -130 (4x) & -2.5 -110 (1x) Won +5.00
Really Cincy is in disarray thanks to injuries to there LB corps and OL. The OL injuries hurt there pass protection with Palmer off surgery(who also has injured WRs to deal with) and the running game has less holes. There LB shortcomings allow other teams to run on them and Jamal Lewis finally broke a hundo last week. The Ravens defense isjust head and shoulders above Cincys and thats where this game is won with Cncy offense out of sync. Also thinking an under 42 here...
Lions +6 -110 (3x) & Over 47 -110 (3x) Lions win SU- 0.30
As I explained previously both teams have been scoring in the 20's and ATL actually upper 20's lately. Both teams have been allowing at least 28 a game past few weeks. Both teams missing key players on injuries. Game indoors on turf stresses SPEED.
Dolphins +14 -120 (3x) & Under 37.5 -110 (5x) 2nd H Under 19.5 -102 (3x) SU win -2.50 / -3.06
It has to be a plus to be off a BYE week and having CHI playing on Sunday Nite versus the Hot NYG. Miami's Defense is much better then the D's of the Lions , Seahawks , Bills and 49ers the 4 teams CHI has routed at home. Last week was a special spot as CHI was off a Bye and embarassing prime time game. Therefore the line was soft. Think about SF is +10 at home vs SD which means +17 away...Chi is a little tougher IMO then SD right now so really we should have see 18 or -19 on that but yet the public saw SF value @ +16. Now the betting market will see people willing to lay 14 or 13 with CHI against a better 'bad' team. Harrington is familiar with CHI and the key is not INTS but BAD INT's. The ones that take points off the board Or give points to Chi. If anyone thinks SF on the road is somewhat similiar to Miami on the road they should rethink wagering on sports. SF ia not competitive on the road and regularly allows 35 + points. Miami is almost always competitive but just finds way to lose...see @ Pitt , @ NYJ and @NE....Chi schedule has been so weak its actually laughable...toughest opponent a very medicore SEA team without Alexander. Phins allow 3 YPC away and that means Grossman most do more here... Bears 4-0 TAS home and Phins 0-4 ATS away...low scoring game today 20-10 type. out of respect for CHI I kept it small...
Still looking @ NYG / Hou , StL / KC , Ten / Jax....
My last decisions were:
Texans +7 .5 -120 (1.5x) & +13 -116 (1.5x) Win +3.00
NY is to banged up here and will take Hou lightily IMHO...no Plax means O struggles more.
STL ML -138 (3x) Loss -4.14
Rams are a long FG away from being 3-0 at home while KC is a fg away from 0-3...liked the over but KC struggles away make me rethink and wait for 2nd H.
Team totals -2.20
Over 26-108 ATL (1.5x) L
Und 22.5 +110 KC (1.5x) L
Und 19 -108 Cincy (1x) L
Und 28 -121 NYG (1x) W
Under 25 -111 Chi (1x) W
Teaser +6.00
Under 58 KC , Under 51.5 Cincy, Over 31 Buff (3x) W
Under 58 KC , Und 51.5 Cincy , Undre 51 Dal (3x) W
4PM's
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) SU Win +5.00
Hate that this line dropped so far but Minny is DOME team playing outdoors. Therefore I will stay on it...Like the over but waiting for halftime see an slow 1st Half(slow and low)
Over 41 -106 SD (7x) and Cle +13.5 -110 (5x) Win +12.00
Not sure how teh Browns do it but they keep it close just about every it game it seems. Like the fact Frye ha some free reign now and SD lost its heart on defense Merriman...
Steelers -2.5 -110 (5x) Loss -5.50 2nd H Over 19.5 -111 (2x)Win +2.00 & pitt -7.5 +219 2nd H (1x) L (net +1.00 2nd H)
Broncos are better but w/o Bell this is tough matchup for them. Big Ben is the key here
as he killed Pitt many atime this year...think last week @ Jax and vs Cincy...
Night game
Played NE -2.5 -120 (8x) and team total over 25.5 -128 NE (2x)
Under 49 -120 (3x) & Under 24 1st H -104 (1x)
Comments are above but looking at the under 49 ish here. NE is very similiar to Denver and the total was 37-40 depending on when you played it 45 is fair here IMO. Be back shortly . Last time we saw such ahigh total in this matchup we saw 20-3 witha 51 number. Befoe last meeting Indy couldnt break 24 in NE. This Pats defense is just as good as the prior D's and not sure Indy O can claim that with Stokley ailing and issues at RB..Rhodes hurting and Addai questionable in pass protection...27 -17 final IMHO.....
NBA @ 1PM
Raptors +7 -108 (2.5x) ML +242 (1/2x) change in plans 2nd H Spurs -3.5 -108 (2.5x) & Over 99.5 -120 (2x) Loss -0.70 / +2.00 2nd H
With SA off a loss it seems they are hopping on TOR here. The raptors had covered 5 straight before barely missing the cash in OT in the last meeting by a bucket. The new look Raps flying under the radar have played well in both games and SA 3rd in 4 nites plus the early start..SA 1-9 ATS last 10 sunday games...with NY on deck for 4th in 5 nites they will be a fade on Monday as well...
Hawks +4 -110 (3x) & Over 194 -110 (6x) 2nd H over 96 +108 (2x) -3.60
The Hawks at home just are a much different team. there so young that you cant pay attention to how they play on the road.
Philly +3 -109 (5x) 2nd H Over 93.5 -120 (2x) SU win +5.00 / +2.00
Extremely unimpressed with Miami's play to date
Net +0.70 sides & totals / 2nd H +4.00
Nite hoops~
Sonics see -1-110 (8x)
Though Seattle played very well against them and it seems as if SEA feels they was robbed! They felt the 48 -16 FT attempt difference(30-16 fouls) was the difference in the game as was the no calls late for there players. Had this game @ -2 so its pretty accurate IMO. Both teams scoring a ton but I think home court is the edge here...like the over at 212 ish... I wonder if Kobe shows some rust here? Why here? Alot of times adrenaline carries a player and that could have happened for a guy who missed all of preseason. His shot can also be inconsistent from game to game without the proper reps... Tough spot for LAL trying to beat the same team twice in 3 days.....also you could already see LAL get Kobe a ton of minutes and slowly pahse out some guys like Evans , Vuscic , and Vladdy...(IMO).
Under 188 -110 (5x) Houston & NO (186) WIn +5.00
Played this last nite but its now 183....which I think took away alot of the value. Probably would say play the 1st H under instead. Still thinking about the NO Hornets here. WHy the total? Sort of self explanatory with Houston always play a slow pace and hitting everything they shot yesterday.... be back on this one......Would recommend this game even at 182 but again better idea might be 1st H under...
This site was down and I added NO ML -114 (5x)Win +5.00 & 1st H under 92.5 -109 (2x) Win +2.00 (90@ half..bit of sweat there) 2nd Hedge Over 90.5-105 (1.5x) Win
Good Luck
Saturday College Football Thoughts
Already lost a small play on the Under in Boise State and have Louisville ML (10x) and Under 57 (5x). Really havent decided if I will touch the Friday AF @ Army matchup yet.
On to Saturday afternoon and the NOON starts ~
UVA @ FSU
This might at first glance look like a big number but despite FSU struggles they have lost 2 tough games at home to BC and Clemson. I think the UVA offense made progress when Sewell became the starter but last 2 weeks they havent shown me much. Now they play @ FSU a team desperate for a win , looking for revenge and getting a UVA squad which never travels well to Seminole country..UVA will struggle to run the ball here and thats a big dimension of there offense. Dont see this UVA team scoring more then 14 here . Hopefully Antone Smith and Lorenzo Booker can repeat there solid performance here and Xavier Lee looked solid @ Maryland.
Play:. FSU -12 -110 (3x) Win 33-0 +3.00
Ball State @ Michigan
While its tempting to take the points or the Under here I just cant. Ball State just could hand Michigan alot of short fields and even the most vanilla of Michigans offense plays could cause trouble cause of the talent gap. Ball State was able to backdopor Purdue earlier this year but the Wolverine defense is stout and wont allow much if anything
Missouri @ Nebraska
I was thinking of taking Nebraska here but I tend to not like to fade a team I played and lost with the week before so I was being cautious. Then today Dr.Bob comes out with Missouri as one of his plays and knocks teh line down to 4.5 or 5. Missouri has shown the ability to play well on the road winning @ TT and losing by 6 @ A&M teams that are in the same neighborhood as Nebraska. Still though Nebraska looks attractive to me with Missouri missing ist best defensive player as does the Under 50.5.
Play: Under 24.5 2nd H -112 (2x) Win 21 points +2.00
Maryland @ Clemson
Well I hopped on the Tigers at -17 this morning only to watch Dr.Bob release it as a strong play and see it basiocally settle @ -20. My opinion was Marylands defense was worse then the PPG it had allowed and just surrended 475 yards to FSU at home nearly double there offense output. They also have been getting destroyed on the ground see WVU 360 yards rushing and the following numbers vs quality teams. Clemson has not allowed any team to score more then 9 points at home versus them and held Calvin Johnson catchless! Terps will struggle to score here and I see no reason why the Tigers dont get 35 here.......thought about the Under but really 47 is to low looking at what Maryland allows......
Play: Clemson -17 -104 (4x) SU Loss 13-12 -4.16
- Now its 19.5 and -20 and might drop down some. I would play it up to -20 or even -20.5....
Penn State @ Wisky
The Nittany Lion offense continues to struggle and this is two tough defenses battling eachother. Thought a fair line was -7 so really no interest in a side if I had to guess would say Wisky but I dont have to!! Looking at the UNDER if it creeps into the low 40's....23-13 type game... blew this onje 13-3 Wisky
Northwestern @ Iowa
Think Tate returns here after Iowa cruised to 10 pt win versus N.Illinois. They got a big lead and coasted. The WIldcat offense runs into another tough defense and 10 points even with Bachar @ QB looks like a mountain....I think weather and lack og interst from Michigan had more to do with the 17 points they allowed last week. I look for Iowa to crack 30 poinst here....
Play : Iowa -19 -110 (3x) SU Loss 21-7 -3.30
Pitt @ South Florida
The Panthers are off a home loss to Rutgers and USF off an pathetic offensive effort @ Cincy. Looking for a defensive battle and think the home team could hang.
Play: Under 44.5 -105 (3x) & USF +5 -110 (2x) win SU 22-12 +5.00
Baylor @ Tex Tech
Shaun Bell is done for the year and that makes me want to stay away from this game. I will look at the TTteam over whne it comes out ...
Play : TT over 36.5 -108 (2x) & TT -9 -110 1st H (2.5x) Win +4.50
Indiana @Minnesota
Indiana has played some decent ball lately however even with Minnys struggles this line is to low. Remember that versus a dead Mich State team they were basically TD home dogs , they were TD dogs @ Illinois as well....Minnesota with its struggles has played decent defense and Cupito should be able to throw on Indiana. Both teams were taken to shed verus Ohio State but I dont think Ind can win this game on the road..after the home upset of Mich State.
Play : Minnesota -5.5 -110 (5x) Win 62-20 +5.00
Miss State @ Bama
Right now Bama has struggled and failed to cover versus Vandy , Hawaii , Duke and Miss at home so why would I want to lay chalk with them ? Miss State just went to the wire @ Georgia and home versus Kentucky. Henig is making plays in the passing game which is good since the Bulldogs wont run on Bama. Not great value but .. was eyeing the over 39 yesterdand forgot about it...
Play: Miss State +15.5 -110 (2x)
Florida @ Vandy
I cant figure out this line and cant figure why it jumped from 14 to 17 so I will stay away!
1PM
Central Michigan @ Temple
The inprovement in Temple was evident to me inthe past few weeks. Which led me to playing Temple and even the ML last week. While CMU is a better team then BG it still baffles me they could make Temple such big dogs here..
Play: Temple +19 -110 (4x) bad sign now @ +20 / so stupid should have played CMU -10 1st Half! Holy Backdoor!! 42-26 Final +4.00
Navy @ Duke
Both teams have failed to slow anyone recently on defense. Duke should struggle versus the option and there offense has shown life recently....
Play: Over 47 -104 Duke / Navy (3x) Win +3.00 38-13
Georgia @ Kentcuky
I cant trust the Bulldogs but had this at more like -8 so no value in the dog either.....pass
Bowl Green @ Akron
Waiting to see if this gets cheaper but think -9 is fair. BG has been struggling on offense for awhile now and both teams off bad losses away. See the BG offense struggling to get 14 again...leaning Akron
Kent State @ Buffalo
No interest / opinion
Ohio U @ East Mich
No interest / opinion
Kansas @ Iowa State
Was looking at playing KU +1 then Dr.Bon pushed it to -2 or better. Kansas has played better on the road IMO and looks like theyhave another new QB. Iowa State hasnt shown anything at all this season....
Play: Kansas ML -120 (4x)
Ark State @ Auburn
No interest...
UNC @ Notre Dame
Not crazy about laying this with ND since there offense hasnt really been in sync. NC has been decent against the pass so I am hoping they limit big plays and let ND work for there points. ND defense has been better then expected and UNC offense is in disarray all season..
Play : UNC +27 -110 (2x) & Under 52 -105 (2x)
Hawaii @ Utah State
The rainbows are en fuego but can they be trusted in cold weather and with some injuries to there defense? If anything I play the rainbows 1st H.....
Play: Under 65.5 -110 (2x)
TCU @ UNLV
No interest / opinion
SDST @ Wyoming
Probbaly dont touch this buts it Wyoming or nothing just cant trust the Cowboy offense...
3:30 's
Wash @ Oregon
You wonder what toll back to back OT losses will tale on the Huskies . Just a game better to stay away from....
Miami -Ohio @ West Michigan
No interest / opinion
Tulsa @ Houston
Expect Tulsa to be -3 here so not touching a side. Think this should be a shootout with Smith vs Kolb......
Play: Over 56 -105 (3x) & Tulsa ML -119 (3x)
Purdue @ Mich State
Cant touch the Spartans and how could I go over when Purdue has scored 3 points total past 2 games at home!!! Would love to go under but Mich State would have to try then...
Ohio State @ Illinois
Illinois has coverd all 4 games when getting 17 or more. This is alot of chalk and the Illinois defense is underrated......
Play: Illinois +27 -110 (3x)
FAU @ Mid Tenn State
Would take the home team -11 if anything but this line got pounded down from 14....
LSU @ Tenny
The Vols lost Coker and now Ainge hurt his ankle last week. They were unable to run the ball vs South Car and wont versus LSU. Which means there offense lies in Ainge hands but gimpy ankle...LSU has lost 2 tough road games this year @ Auburn and @ FLA were they couldt make plays on offfense late. Difference here is Tenny DEF isnt the same caliber as those.. For those who wonder why LSU is favored go back to FLA laying -4.5 in Tenny. A bit high but they won SU so -3 was correct here IMO...Tenny struggled at home recently....
Play: Bought LSU -2.5 -120 (5x)
East Car @ UCF
The Golden Eagles havent played any defense of late but 55 seems high...
ULL @ Troy
For some reason I dont see much offense
Play : Under 43 +102(2x)
ASU @ Oregon State
I have to fade the Beavers here with a banged up RB and QB off the win versus USC.....
Play: ASU +3 -105 (3x)
Arizona @ Wash State
No interest / opinion
Nevada @Idaho
Dont like playing a team back from hawaii but Idaho was playing well before that beating. Nevada just 1-3 SU away and only a 3 pt fav @ UNLV where they cruised...double digit chalk seems heavy...
Play : Idaho +10.5 -115 (2x)
BYU @ Colorado State
Cant see how this line is +17 maybe +14 but 17......I have this closer to -13. Colorado State defense is decent and BYU's road high is 33 (31 , 23 and 13 in the others)....
Play : Colorado State +17 -105 (3x)
The 7 Pm starts and after
GaTech @ NCSt
We have GT coming off a nice win at home versus Miami and the Wolfpack who continue to befuddle the world dropping 3 straight after 2 home upsets. The key is HOME UPSETS. For whatever reason NCST under Amato has adpoted the identity of a team who plays better when less is expected (IE: as a DOG). Now some will say NUT they were dogs past 2 road games @ Maryland and @ UVA. The problem with that is they were away and less then FG dogs which means technically they are better then there opponents BUT more important the points didnt matter they had to win to cover the point spread...Not really the same situation as Home dog of +5 where they need to compete...these are the games where yo see favs winning by 1 or 2 points...if they do win...
Bottomline is the situation has a POOR FAV in GT as road chalk versus a GOOD HOME DOG in NCST. I think the young QB of the Wolfpack wille perform better at home and the tandem of Baker and Brown can do enough on the ground as GT has allowed some yardage lately on the ground...Wolfpack have 2 upstes athome and 2 FG losses to decent squads in WF and Akron. if GT played to there full capabilities instead of there usual inconsistencies the Wolfpack could be in trouble BUT that rarely seems to happen...also Travis Bell tends to reflect his teammates inconcistent play with inconsistent FG kicking!
N.C. State is not a team to be overlooked as it has won its last four games against ranked opponents, including victories over Boston College and Florida State this season.
Play: NCST +6 -120 (3x)
BC @ Wake Forest
Personally I understand why this game opened at 6. We had Wake recently win a close game @ NCST in which they were 3 point dogs( tends to mean equal strength) and awhile back BC traveled to NCST as 6 point favs but lost on a last minute TD by 2 points after a Ryan fumble...so that number made sense.
Now we see 3.5 and I have to be real close to laying it with BC. Two very good defenses square off here but while WF has home field BC clarly has the better offense. BC has allowed 22 point since that Wolfpack loss with2 shutouts at home and 3pt game vs VaTech...they should keep the WF runninggame grounded leaving it Skinner to make plays. There FG kicker isprobably the most potent offensive weapon with the ability to knock throughh 50 + yards on a consistent basis....if BC doesnt make mistakes they should control the game and win a low scoring battle around 20-13. Waiting but think BC here but def looking at this UNDER 40...
Play: BC -3-120 (2x) & Under 42 -113 (2x)
Oklahoma State @ Texas
Tough matchup here. I think this line should be closer to -15 not -18 so leaning towards the DOG since pass defense is giving UT trouble despite there 2nd H shutdown of TT. Reid and Co can score but they struggle to stop anyone.....UT low offensive output at home is 37 vs Iowa State and they sat on the ball late...so they should crack 40 here and I cant see why OK St doesnt top 24...
Leaning Ok St +18 but really like the over 62.5(42-21 does the trick) but waiting to see if it gets cheaper
Play: Over 61.5 -110 (3x)
USC @ Stanford
The Cardinal offense is non-existent now that Edwards is done for the year. All season they had struggled with WR issues and have only scored more then 10 points ONCE this year. The 1st Half @ SJST with Edwards at QB and some heakthy Wideouts they put up 34 in the 6 1/2 games since they had 39 total points. I 'll say that Stanford scores 7 but only cause they get a late gift.....Stanford D will eventually tire leading to some easy scores for the Trojans looking to bounce back....38-7? 38-3?35-3 something along those lines.......USC 1st H -17 +100 look sinteresting as well
HAve to think and watch this one...USC -17 +100 1st H looks enticing as does the Under...
Play: USC 1st H -17 +111 (2x) & Under 50-105 (2x)
LaTech @ NTexas
Probably staying away from this but 2 bad teams I think you have to take the DOG here. Outside of a home upset of SMU NT hasnt even been competitive most of the time...
Tulane @ Marshall
Would think if Tulane was healthy @ WR this would be a shootout and the over is teh way to go but they could be w/o 2 key WR's . Ricard can sling it and sudenly Marshall has offense while the Green Wave havent slowed anyone yet....HAve to better understand teh WR picture @ Tulane but did lean Tulane but really the over 57..
Arkansas @ South Carolina
Bad line alert...this game should at worst be a PK...what has ARK done to deserve road chalk? A FLUKE UPSET of Auburn the week before the AUB/FLA? They crushed 3 worthless squads at home and thats about it. They played @ Vandy early and struggled this is a much tougher venue. SC IMO gave Tenny all it couldhandle after getting off the wrong foot with a Pick 6 early....SC gave Auburn and Tenny games both top 10 teams at home......all ARK has done is win @ AUB.....they barely edged BAMA at home in OT and after that @ AVndy is ther enext toughest game...we wont mention USC.....Let ARK show me they are for real.....
Play: South Carolina -3 -120 (3x) probably ML as well
VaTech @ Miami
Real simple overeraction the Hokie upset at home over Clemson. No way should they be favored on the road in the Orange Bowl...think about how they played @BC. The Hokies wont run and they havet shown teh ability to consistent pass with Glennon under center..bad line!
Play : Miami +3 -118 (avg price) (10x) ML +124 (4x)
Oklahoma @ A&M
This line should be a PK IMO... cant see OU as being 6 or so points better on aneutral field without AP. There defense is vastily improving though. The A& M defense is average but right OU is depending on field position to get poinst on the board...think A&M 23-20 here..
Leaning either A&M +3 or better , ML and the UNDER for sure
Play: Under 47 -110 (3x) ML +122 (1.5x)
UCLA @ Cal
No opinion
SJST @ NMST
would only be interested in SF @ -4 and NMST at +7 or better....
Rice @ UTEP
Cant figure out whythis keeps dropping....the way I see itUTEP under -10 is cheap...to be determined...
Play: Utep -9.5 -110(2x)
Already lost a small play on the Under in Boise State and have Louisville ML (10x) and Under 57 (5x). Really havent decided if I will touch the Friday AF @ Army matchup yet.
On to Saturday afternoon and the NOON starts ~
UVA @ FSU
This might at first glance look like a big number but despite FSU struggles they have lost 2 tough games at home to BC and Clemson. I think the UVA offense made progress when Sewell became the starter but last 2 weeks they havent shown me much. Now they play @ FSU a team desperate for a win , looking for revenge and getting a UVA squad which never travels well to Seminole country..UVA will struggle to run the ball here and thats a big dimension of there offense. Dont see this UVA team scoring more then 14 here . Hopefully Antone Smith and Lorenzo Booker can repeat there solid performance here and Xavier Lee looked solid @ Maryland.
Play:. FSU -12 -110 (3x) Win 33-0 +3.00
Ball State @ Michigan
While its tempting to take the points or the Under here I just cant. Ball State just could hand Michigan alot of short fields and even the most vanilla of Michigans offense plays could cause trouble cause of the talent gap. Ball State was able to backdopor Purdue earlier this year but the Wolverine defense is stout and wont allow much if anything
Missouri @ Nebraska
I was thinking of taking Nebraska here but I tend to not like to fade a team I played and lost with the week before so I was being cautious. Then today Dr.Bob comes out with Missouri as one of his plays and knocks teh line down to 4.5 or 5. Missouri has shown the ability to play well on the road winning @ TT and losing by 6 @ A&M teams that are in the same neighborhood as Nebraska. Still though Nebraska looks attractive to me with Missouri missing ist best defensive player as does the Under 50.5.
Play: Under 24.5 2nd H -112 (2x) Win 21 points +2.00
Maryland @ Clemson
Well I hopped on the Tigers at -17 this morning only to watch Dr.Bob release it as a strong play and see it basiocally settle @ -20. My opinion was Marylands defense was worse then the PPG it had allowed and just surrended 475 yards to FSU at home nearly double there offense output. They also have been getting destroyed on the ground see WVU 360 yards rushing and the following numbers vs quality teams. Clemson has not allowed any team to score more then 9 points at home versus them and held Calvin Johnson catchless! Terps will struggle to score here and I see no reason why the Tigers dont get 35 here.......thought about the Under but really 47 is to low looking at what Maryland allows......
Play: Clemson -17 -104 (4x) SU Loss 13-12 -4.16
- Now its 19.5 and -20 and might drop down some. I would play it up to -20 or even -20.5....
Penn State @ Wisky
The Nittany Lion offense continues to struggle and this is two tough defenses battling eachother. Thought a fair line was -7 so really no interest in a side if I had to guess would say Wisky but I dont have to!! Looking at the UNDER if it creeps into the low 40's....23-13 type game... blew this onje 13-3 Wisky
Northwestern @ Iowa
Think Tate returns here after Iowa cruised to 10 pt win versus N.Illinois. They got a big lead and coasted. The WIldcat offense runs into another tough defense and 10 points even with Bachar @ QB looks like a mountain....I think weather and lack og interst from Michigan had more to do with the 17 points they allowed last week. I look for Iowa to crack 30 poinst here....
Play : Iowa -19 -110 (3x) SU Loss 21-7 -3.30
Pitt @ South Florida
The Panthers are off a home loss to Rutgers and USF off an pathetic offensive effort @ Cincy. Looking for a defensive battle and think the home team could hang.
Play: Under 44.5 -105 (3x) & USF +5 -110 (2x) win SU 22-12 +5.00
Baylor @ Tex Tech
Shaun Bell is done for the year and that makes me want to stay away from this game. I will look at the TTteam over whne it comes out ...
Play : TT over 36.5 -108 (2x) & TT -9 -110 1st H (2.5x) Win +4.50
Indiana @Minnesota
Indiana has played some decent ball lately however even with Minnys struggles this line is to low. Remember that versus a dead Mich State team they were basically TD home dogs , they were TD dogs @ Illinois as well....Minnesota with its struggles has played decent defense and Cupito should be able to throw on Indiana. Both teams were taken to shed verus Ohio State but I dont think Ind can win this game on the road..after the home upset of Mich State.
Play : Minnesota -5.5 -110 (5x) Win 62-20 +5.00
Miss State @ Bama
Right now Bama has struggled and failed to cover versus Vandy , Hawaii , Duke and Miss at home so why would I want to lay chalk with them ? Miss State just went to the wire @ Georgia and home versus Kentucky. Henig is making plays in the passing game which is good since the Bulldogs wont run on Bama. Not great value but .. was eyeing the over 39 yesterdand forgot about it...
Play: Miss State +15.5 -110 (2x)
Florida @ Vandy
I cant figure out this line and cant figure why it jumped from 14 to 17 so I will stay away!
1PM
Central Michigan @ Temple
The inprovement in Temple was evident to me inthe past few weeks. Which led me to playing Temple and even the ML last week. While CMU is a better team then BG it still baffles me they could make Temple such big dogs here..
Play: Temple +19 -110 (4x) bad sign now @ +20 / so stupid should have played CMU -10 1st Half! Holy Backdoor!! 42-26 Final +4.00
Navy @ Duke
Both teams have failed to slow anyone recently on defense. Duke should struggle versus the option and there offense has shown life recently....
Play: Over 47 -104 Duke / Navy (3x) Win +3.00 38-13
Georgia @ Kentcuky
I cant trust the Bulldogs but had this at more like -8 so no value in the dog either.....pass
Bowl Green @ Akron
Waiting to see if this gets cheaper but think -9 is fair. BG has been struggling on offense for awhile now and both teams off bad losses away. See the BG offense struggling to get 14 again...leaning Akron
Kent State @ Buffalo
No interest / opinion
Ohio U @ East Mich
No interest / opinion
Kansas @ Iowa State
Was looking at playing KU +1 then Dr.Bon pushed it to -2 or better. Kansas has played better on the road IMO and looks like theyhave another new QB. Iowa State hasnt shown anything at all this season....
Play: Kansas ML -120 (4x)
Ark State @ Auburn
No interest...
UNC @ Notre Dame
Not crazy about laying this with ND since there offense hasnt really been in sync. NC has been decent against the pass so I am hoping they limit big plays and let ND work for there points. ND defense has been better then expected and UNC offense is in disarray all season..
Play : UNC +27 -110 (2x) & Under 52 -105 (2x)
Hawaii @ Utah State
The rainbows are en fuego but can they be trusted in cold weather and with some injuries to there defense? If anything I play the rainbows 1st H.....
Play: Under 65.5 -110 (2x)
TCU @ UNLV
No interest / opinion
SDST @ Wyoming
Probbaly dont touch this buts it Wyoming or nothing just cant trust the Cowboy offense...
3:30 's
Wash @ Oregon
You wonder what toll back to back OT losses will tale on the Huskies . Just a game better to stay away from....
Miami -Ohio @ West Michigan
No interest / opinion
Tulsa @ Houston
Expect Tulsa to be -3 here so not touching a side. Think this should be a shootout with Smith vs Kolb......
Play: Over 56 -105 (3x) & Tulsa ML -119 (3x)
Purdue @ Mich State
Cant touch the Spartans and how could I go over when Purdue has scored 3 points total past 2 games at home!!! Would love to go under but Mich State would have to try then...
Ohio State @ Illinois
Illinois has coverd all 4 games when getting 17 or more. This is alot of chalk and the Illinois defense is underrated......
Play: Illinois +27 -110 (3x)
FAU @ Mid Tenn State
Would take the home team -11 if anything but this line got pounded down from 14....
LSU @ Tenny
The Vols lost Coker and now Ainge hurt his ankle last week. They were unable to run the ball vs South Car and wont versus LSU. Which means there offense lies in Ainge hands but gimpy ankle...LSU has lost 2 tough road games this year @ Auburn and @ FLA were they couldt make plays on offfense late. Difference here is Tenny DEF isnt the same caliber as those.. For those who wonder why LSU is favored go back to FLA laying -4.5 in Tenny. A bit high but they won SU so -3 was correct here IMO...Tenny struggled at home recently....
Play: Bought LSU -2.5 -120 (5x)
East Car @ UCF
The Golden Eagles havent played any defense of late but 55 seems high...
ULL @ Troy
For some reason I dont see much offense
Play : Under 43 +102(2x)
ASU @ Oregon State
I have to fade the Beavers here with a banged up RB and QB off the win versus USC.....
Play: ASU +3 -105 (3x)
Arizona @ Wash State
No interest / opinion
Nevada @Idaho
Dont like playing a team back from hawaii but Idaho was playing well before that beating. Nevada just 1-3 SU away and only a 3 pt fav @ UNLV where they cruised...double digit chalk seems heavy...
Play : Idaho +10.5 -115 (2x)
BYU @ Colorado State
Cant see how this line is +17 maybe +14 but 17......I have this closer to -13. Colorado State defense is decent and BYU's road high is 33 (31 , 23 and 13 in the others)....
Play : Colorado State +17 -105 (3x)
The 7 Pm starts and after
GaTech @ NCSt
We have GT coming off a nice win at home versus Miami and the Wolfpack who continue to befuddle the world dropping 3 straight after 2 home upsets. The key is HOME UPSETS. For whatever reason NCST under Amato has adpoted the identity of a team who plays better when less is expected (IE: as a DOG). Now some will say NUT they were dogs past 2 road games @ Maryland and @ UVA. The problem with that is they were away and less then FG dogs which means technically they are better then there opponents BUT more important the points didnt matter they had to win to cover the point spread...Not really the same situation as Home dog of +5 where they need to compete...these are the games where yo see favs winning by 1 or 2 points...if they do win...
Bottomline is the situation has a POOR FAV in GT as road chalk versus a GOOD HOME DOG in NCST. I think the young QB of the Wolfpack wille perform better at home and the tandem of Baker and Brown can do enough on the ground as GT has allowed some yardage lately on the ground...Wolfpack have 2 upstes athome and 2 FG losses to decent squads in WF and Akron. if GT played to there full capabilities instead of there usual inconsistencies the Wolfpack could be in trouble BUT that rarely seems to happen...also Travis Bell tends to reflect his teammates inconcistent play with inconsistent FG kicking!
N.C. State is not a team to be overlooked as it has won its last four games against ranked opponents, including victories over Boston College and Florida State this season.
Play: NCST +6 -120 (3x)
BC @ Wake Forest
Personally I understand why this game opened at 6. We had Wake recently win a close game @ NCST in which they were 3 point dogs( tends to mean equal strength) and awhile back BC traveled to NCST as 6 point favs but lost on a last minute TD by 2 points after a Ryan fumble...so that number made sense.
Now we see 3.5 and I have to be real close to laying it with BC. Two very good defenses square off here but while WF has home field BC clarly has the better offense. BC has allowed 22 point since that Wolfpack loss with2 shutouts at home and 3pt game vs VaTech...they should keep the WF runninggame grounded leaving it Skinner to make plays. There FG kicker isprobably the most potent offensive weapon with the ability to knock throughh 50 + yards on a consistent basis....if BC doesnt make mistakes they should control the game and win a low scoring battle around 20-13. Waiting but think BC here but def looking at this UNDER 40...
Play: BC -3-120 (2x) & Under 42 -113 (2x)
Oklahoma State @ Texas
Tough matchup here. I think this line should be closer to -15 not -18 so leaning towards the DOG since pass defense is giving UT trouble despite there 2nd H shutdown of TT. Reid and Co can score but they struggle to stop anyone.....UT low offensive output at home is 37 vs Iowa State and they sat on the ball late...so they should crack 40 here and I cant see why OK St doesnt top 24...
Leaning Ok St +18 but really like the over 62.5(42-21 does the trick) but waiting to see if it gets cheaper
Play: Over 61.5 -110 (3x)
USC @ Stanford
The Cardinal offense is non-existent now that Edwards is done for the year. All season they had struggled with WR issues and have only scored more then 10 points ONCE this year. The 1st Half @ SJST with Edwards at QB and some heakthy Wideouts they put up 34 in the 6 1/2 games since they had 39 total points. I 'll say that Stanford scores 7 but only cause they get a late gift.....Stanford D will eventually tire leading to some easy scores for the Trojans looking to bounce back....38-7? 38-3?35-3 something along those lines.......USC 1st H -17 +100 look sinteresting as well
HAve to think and watch this one...USC -17 +100 1st H looks enticing as does the Under...
Play: USC 1st H -17 +111 (2x) & Under 50-105 (2x)
LaTech @ NTexas
Probably staying away from this but 2 bad teams I think you have to take the DOG here. Outside of a home upset of SMU NT hasnt even been competitive most of the time...
Tulane @ Marshall
Would think if Tulane was healthy @ WR this would be a shootout and the over is teh way to go but they could be w/o 2 key WR's . Ricard can sling it and sudenly Marshall has offense while the Green Wave havent slowed anyone yet....HAve to better understand teh WR picture @ Tulane but did lean Tulane but really the over 57..
Arkansas @ South Carolina
Bad line alert...this game should at worst be a PK...what has ARK done to deserve road chalk? A FLUKE UPSET of Auburn the week before the AUB/FLA? They crushed 3 worthless squads at home and thats about it. They played @ Vandy early and struggled this is a much tougher venue. SC IMO gave Tenny all it couldhandle after getting off the wrong foot with a Pick 6 early....SC gave Auburn and Tenny games both top 10 teams at home......all ARK has done is win @ AUB.....they barely edged BAMA at home in OT and after that @ AVndy is ther enext toughest game...we wont mention USC.....Let ARK show me they are for real.....
Play: South Carolina -3 -120 (3x) probably ML as well
VaTech @ Miami
Real simple overeraction the Hokie upset at home over Clemson. No way should they be favored on the road in the Orange Bowl...think about how they played @BC. The Hokies wont run and they havet shown teh ability to consistent pass with Glennon under center..bad line!
Play : Miami +3 -118 (avg price) (10x) ML +124 (4x)
Oklahoma @ A&M
This line should be a PK IMO... cant see OU as being 6 or so points better on aneutral field without AP. There defense is vastily improving though. The A& M defense is average but right OU is depending on field position to get poinst on the board...think A&M 23-20 here..
Leaning either A&M +3 or better , ML and the UNDER for sure
Play: Under 47 -110 (3x) ML +122 (1.5x)
UCLA @ Cal
No opinion
SJST @ NMST
would only be interested in SF @ -4 and NMST at +7 or better....
Rice @ UTEP
Cant figure out whythis keeps dropping....the way I see itUTEP under -10 is cheap...to be determined...
Play: Utep -9.5 -110(2x)
November 2nd Thoughts ~NBA/NCAAF
NCAAF ~WVU @ Lville
Finally thee GAME has arrived.
Right now its late and dont feel like a long discussion. Right now with Brohm getting two games under his belt I think he is finding his groove after the injury. Kolby Smith found himself against Syracuse giving them a few options at RB. Basically on a neutral field these teams are even.....the difference is home field and Lville has it so the line should be -3.5 IMO. To me neither team has played a hard schedule....Maryland at home is WVU biggest test to date and here in lie the difference cause Lville already histed Miami and spanked them. Even more impressive is that Brohm got hurt in that game and Michael Bush was already out.
The sleeper in the equation is the Louisville DEFENSE as its is extremely underrated and muc.h better then WVU's. To me the best situations are where the betting public 'buys' into a bad line and they did it here pushing a fair line of 2.5 down to -1 or Pk....
Play:
Louisville ML +103 (10x) Win +10.30 & Under 57 -105 (5x) Loss -5.25(2nd day in arow went oppsite my original thought and lost!)
Some books have Louisville +1 now so I played the ML +105 and +100 for the +103 average
2nd Half Lville ML -105 (3x) Win +3.00 There fucking us with the 2nd H total 30.5...
Saturday Play~
Miami +3 -120 (6x) and ML +124 (4x)
Basic overreaction to the Clemson upset. Miami's run defense is real solid and I cant see how VT goes from Home doggie to Road chalk...........
NCAAF ~WVU @ Lville
Finally thee GAME has arrived.
Right now its late and dont feel like a long discussion. Right now with Brohm getting two games under his belt I think he is finding his groove after the injury. Kolby Smith found himself against Syracuse giving them a few options at RB. Basically on a neutral field these teams are even.....the difference is home field and Lville has it so the line should be -3.5 IMO. To me neither team has played a hard schedule....Maryland at home is WVU biggest test to date and here in lie the difference cause Lville already histed Miami and spanked them. Even more impressive is that Brohm got hurt in that game and Michael Bush was already out.
The sleeper in the equation is the Louisville DEFENSE as its is extremely underrated and muc.h better then WVU's. To me the best situations are where the betting public 'buys' into a bad line and they did it here pushing a fair line of 2.5 down to -1 or Pk....
Play:
Louisville ML +103 (10x) Win +10.30 & Under 57 -105 (5x) Loss -5.25(2nd day in arow went oppsite my original thought and lost!)
Some books have Louisville +1 now so I played the ML +105 and +100 for the +103 average
2nd Half Lville ML -105 (3x) Win +3.00 There fucking us with the 2nd H total 30.5...
Saturday Play~
Miami +3 -120 (6x) and ML +124 (4x)
Basic overreaction to the Clemson upset. Miami's run defense is real solid and I cant see how VT goes from Home doggie to Road chalk...........
NBA ~
Mavs -2.5 -108 (4x) & Under 184 -110 (4x) 97- 91 Spurs(late FTs killed!) -8.72
Under 105.5 -102 1st Half Denver / LAC (3x) Win +3.00
2nd H Under 93 +104 (1.5x) +1.56
Nuggets +4 -110 (2x) ML +154 (1x) Pending
2nd H over 103 -101 Denver (2x)
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
November 1st Thoughts
College Football
Under 59 -115 Fresno State (3x)
Under 17.5 -102 Fresno team total (1x)
Result -4.47 ....both teams gave eachother an ez score 45-21 final..
We have a reeling Bulldog team traveling to play rival Boise State in one of the toughest enviroments in college football. Fresno understands the cant outscore Boise so if they are to play spolier it most be the defense that leads the way. Last game @ LSU I thought they did a solid job on defense till about mid 3 rd quarter when they appeared gassed. So the offense most move chains early to keep the Bulldog defense from tiring out. Think throught the 1st6 possessions LSU had 10 points on offense plus a punt return for a score. They allowed 430 yards of offense put about 280 of that came on the last 4 drives. In recent season the matchup has been low scoring and Fresno has struggled to score against Boise....that should continue here. Only Hawaii has broken 38 on Fresno and IMO thats cause they didnt have the answers for Brennan through the air. Boise is much more reliant on Ian Johnson to get the offense going then Zabransky nowadays.
No matter how you slice it seems Boise always finds away to get the 38-45 point range so thats what I would against expect though thinking its around 35-38 pts here. Expecting something around 38-14.
NBA
Last nite was bad. In my defense who expected a 108 from Chicago and an under? Or 66 from Miami? Once Kobe doesnt play the total is a pure coin flip but lone mistakes were getting on Miami after having CHI originally but not playing LAL @ Half -5 +405!!
Indiana @ Charlotte
Well the Bobcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus Indiana but they have never seen such a low spread. In fact Char is 2-1 SU at home vs Indiana and this preseason in a game that featured what I would see as the real teams Charlotte beat them again.
Read this:
Nov 1, 2006 1:13pm ET
Pacers, Like Much Of NBA, Changing Speeds
In the INDIANAPOLIS STAR, Mark Montieth writes "whether or not they look good is a question for a later date, but this much is certain: The Indiana Pacers will look different this season. That familiar half-court, teeth-pulling offense has been replaced by a simplified full-court attack. Shooting guards and forwards have been replaced by a more generic term, wings. A standing, play-calling coach has been replaced by one willing to take most things sitting down.”
So while the UNDER at first looks enticing reading this and seeing the preseason scores make me think otherwise. Also when Knight joined Felton in the backcourt it appeared the offense took off. With Brezec OUT that means more minutes for Sean May. Indiana has struggled on the road going 15-29 SU last year.....
Plays:
Over 193.5 +104 Indiana and Charlotte (6x)might get cheaper
Charlotte +1 -104 (3x)
Result +3.12 L106 -99
Chicago @ Orlando
Sorry but I thought the opening line was fair for this game and say after a game to see a 6 point adjustment seems absurd. Heat just flat out stunk more then anything CHI didi last nite. A fair line is Orlando as a smal fav.....Not to mention back to back coming into play early...
Plays:
Orlando +2 -101 (6x)
Over 185 -103 Orlando & Chicago (3x) could get cheaper
Result : +9.00 W109-94
ATL @ Philly
Personally I like this 76er team and think they will suprise. Should be interesting to see how the Marvin Williams loss on the heels of the Harrington trade effects this team but ATL hung with Philly last year.....really want to play Philly here but remain cautious of the line drop.....
Plays:
Over 199-110 Philly and Atl (3x)
Result : -3.30 W88-75..liked Philly too..
New Orleans @ Boston
With Red passing away you would expect emotion to be high and NO missed alot of PT in preseason with injuries as most of the starting lineup played just 1 game together. NO another former defensive team couldnt stop anyone this preseason...
8 PM
Under 185 -110 Sac & Minny (6x)
result : +6.00 W 92-83
Cle ML -245 & Utah +101 (2x)
Cle ML , Utah ML and Minny ML (1x)
Result: both wins.. +3.66 and +3.18 (Net +5.84 on parlays)
Team Totals
Over 97 -104 Char(1.5x ) W
Late starts: PENDING
Sonics -8.5 -103 (3x) L -3.09 SU lLoss 107-104
Warriors -6.5 -110 (6x) L -6.60
LAC +5 -110 (4x) L -4.40
Under 212 LAC -105 (3x) L-3.15
Late nite results -17.24
Team totals
Over 103 -112 Sonics (2x) Win +2
Over 105.5 -120 GS (2.5x) Loss -3
thoughat bout Portland over 94 but passed.....
Well I got screwed late......120 something 2nd H points in PHO and GS blows an 8 pt half time lead........
Sides & totals -3.08
Parlays +5.84
Team +4.83
2nd H +3.73
Still +++ but what a BS ending
College Football
Under 59 -115 Fresno State (3x)
Under 17.5 -102 Fresno team total (1x)
Result -4.47 ....both teams gave eachother an ez score 45-21 final..
We have a reeling Bulldog team traveling to play rival Boise State in one of the toughest enviroments in college football. Fresno understands the cant outscore Boise so if they are to play spolier it most be the defense that leads the way. Last game @ LSU I thought they did a solid job on defense till about mid 3 rd quarter when they appeared gassed. So the offense most move chains early to keep the Bulldog defense from tiring out. Think throught the 1st6 possessions LSU had 10 points on offense plus a punt return for a score. They allowed 430 yards of offense put about 280 of that came on the last 4 drives. In recent season the matchup has been low scoring and Fresno has struggled to score against Boise....that should continue here. Only Hawaii has broken 38 on Fresno and IMO thats cause they didnt have the answers for Brennan through the air. Boise is much more reliant on Ian Johnson to get the offense going then Zabransky nowadays.
No matter how you slice it seems Boise always finds away to get the 38-45 point range so thats what I would against expect though thinking its around 35-38 pts here. Expecting something around 38-14.
NBA
Last nite was bad. In my defense who expected a 108 from Chicago and an under? Or 66 from Miami? Once Kobe doesnt play the total is a pure coin flip but lone mistakes were getting on Miami after having CHI originally but not playing LAL @ Half -5 +405!!
Indiana @ Charlotte
Well the Bobcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus Indiana but they have never seen such a low spread. In fact Char is 2-1 SU at home vs Indiana and this preseason in a game that featured what I would see as the real teams Charlotte beat them again.
Read this:
Nov 1, 2006 1:13pm ET
Pacers, Like Much Of NBA, Changing Speeds
In the INDIANAPOLIS STAR, Mark Montieth writes "whether or not they look good is a question for a later date, but this much is certain: The Indiana Pacers will look different this season. That familiar half-court, teeth-pulling offense has been replaced by a simplified full-court attack. Shooting guards and forwards have been replaced by a more generic term, wings. A standing, play-calling coach has been replaced by one willing to take most things sitting down.”
So while the UNDER at first looks enticing reading this and seeing the preseason scores make me think otherwise. Also when Knight joined Felton in the backcourt it appeared the offense took off. With Brezec OUT that means more minutes for Sean May. Indiana has struggled on the road going 15-29 SU last year.....
Plays:
Over 193.5 +104 Indiana and Charlotte (6x)might get cheaper
Charlotte +1 -104 (3x)
Result +3.12 L106 -99
Chicago @ Orlando
Sorry but I thought the opening line was fair for this game and say after a game to see a 6 point adjustment seems absurd. Heat just flat out stunk more then anything CHI didi last nite. A fair line is Orlando as a smal fav.....Not to mention back to back coming into play early...
Plays:
Orlando +2 -101 (6x)
Over 185 -103 Orlando & Chicago (3x) could get cheaper
Result : +9.00 W109-94
ATL @ Philly
Personally I like this 76er team and think they will suprise. Should be interesting to see how the Marvin Williams loss on the heels of the Harrington trade effects this team but ATL hung with Philly last year.....really want to play Philly here but remain cautious of the line drop.....
Plays:
Over 199-110 Philly and Atl (3x)
Result : -3.30 W88-75..liked Philly too..
New Orleans @ Boston
With Red passing away you would expect emotion to be high and NO missed alot of PT in preseason with injuries as most of the starting lineup played just 1 game together. NO another former defensive team couldnt stop anyone this preseason...
Plays:
Boston -3 -110 (4x) & Over 199 -111 (4x)
Result: L -8.84 L 91-87
Toronto @ NJ
See what I posted about Indiana well throw NJ into that story....they also have changed there offense approach this offseason.
Play:
Over 203 -110 NJN & Tor (6x)
Nets -7 -110 (6x)
Result : -.60 W102-92
Also:
5 team ML parlay (1x)
Charl ML -108 , Orl +109 , Phi -235 , Bos -152 , NJN -315
Loss -1.008 PM
Under 185 -110 Sac & Minny (6x)
result : +6.00 W 92-83
With Artest in Sac and Bibby out it will be defense first for the Kings.
Knicks ML +193 (1.5x)
result : +2.90 NYK wins 118-117
No Gasol and Swift ailing..worth a shot...think Isiah turns it around...
Under 194 -110 Cleveland & Wash (4x)
result : +4.00 Cavs 97-94
Tough to crack 90 in Cleveland.....
Over 194 -105 Det & Milw (6x)
Result : +6.00 Milw W 105-97
Even with Ben in the middle to clog it up this way a high scoring series...no more Wallace really should it open it up.
Under 182.5 -103 Houston &Utah (4x)
Result : -4.12 Utah 107-97
banged up stars and the Rockets mean 80 something to 80 something IMO....
Late games.....be back with those later on.... GL
Net Sides & Totals +14.16
ParlayCle ML -245 & Utah +101 (2x)
Cle ML , Utah ML and Minny ML (1x)
Result: both wins.. +3.66 and +3.18 (Net +5.84 on parlays)
Team Totals
Over 97 -104 Char(1.5x ) W
Over 91 -104 Orl(1x)W
Und 95 -112 Min (1.5x) W
Und 99.5 -108 Cle (1.5x) W
Und 93.5 -108 Was (1x) L
Und 91 -101 Utah (1x) L
Und 90 -108 hou (1x) L
Over 93.5 -108 Milw (2.5x) W
Result : +5.83 (5-3)
GOOD LUCK all tons of stuff but technically value is high early in the season...
Late starts: PENDING
Sonics -8.5 -103 (3x) L -3.09 SU lLoss 107-104
Warriors -6.5 -110 (6x) L -6.60
LAC +5 -110 (4x) L -4.40
Under 212 LAC -105 (3x) L-3.15
Late nite results -17.24
Team totals
Over 103 -112 Sonics (2x) Win +2
Over 105.5 -120 GS (2.5x) Loss -3
thoughat bout Portland over 94 but passed.....
Well I got screwed late......120 something 2nd H points in PHO and GS blows an 8 pt half time lead........
Sides & totals -3.08
Parlays +5.84
Team +4.83
2nd H +3.73
Still +++ but what a BS ending
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Tuesday Halloween thoughts
Opening Nite NBA and NCAA Football
NBA
Suns @ Lakers
We all should know about the injuries plaguing both teams with stars Kobe and Amare playing but at less then 100%. In fact Kobe didnt appear in a preseason game so even with all his ability that should be a factor. LAL is w/o centers Mihm and Kwame Brown meaning improving youngster Andrew Bynum will get the start and the bulk of minutes. Marion is nicked along with Radmonvic for LAL. Barborsa and Vujacic have minor injuries amd McKie and James Jones are OUT respectively. These teams met in the 1st round of the playoffs were LAL blew a 3-1 lead and we had Raja Bell talking smack to Kobe. They even met twice in the preseason already.......so they are very familiar with eachother.
You look at the meetings last year and see alot of high totals but alot of UNDERS. Funny thing to me is the 1st meeting in Pho the total was to low at 202 and after that it got jacked to 210 to 220 range and was all unders. The star players are less the 100% , the Suns struggled shooting 3 's all preseason and they really struggled shooting from beyond the arc in the 2 preseason games against LAL.
Personally I feel this TOTAL is way to high for the opening game. These teams have history and you know Raja Bell is licking his chops to play Kobe and show the world he can shut him down. To sail over you need both teams to score well above a 100 points. With Kobes absence in the preseason and some new faces you would expect the LAL offense to struggle to get in sync. I really like that LAL for the most part kept PHO offense in check last year. Naturally Amare wasnt around but he isnt 100% yet... Truthfully I think the last 3 meetings in the playoffs should betaken with a grain of salt ...they were all overs but the totals were finally adjusted down atthat point and the last 2 games Raja Bell didnt play. Prior to that hey scored 98 in OT , 92 and 89 in LA and hadnt even topped 110 at home. Last year LAL was a tiny fav at home and now is 5 pt dogs?? Amare is a big difference but that big???
Play :
Under 209.5 -110 LAL & Phoenix(6x) (220)Loss -6.60
Lakers +5 -110 (4x), +7.5 -102 (2x) , +8.5 -110 (1x) SU win 114-106 +7.00
Middled Over 205 -102 & Under 209.5 -110 (3x each) xxxxx
CHI @ Miami
It seems people are falling in love with the idea that CHI will play great defense now that Big Ben is town. I think it has more to do with pace and tempo and it seems like Skiles wants to open the offense more. He recently said PJ Brown will come of the bench with Nochiocini (sp?) starting. That seems to back his statement. As wonderful a player that Wallace is SHAQ did his thing versus him last yer at home when DET came to town. I dont think Jason Williams lost changes much. He missed some time last year and the offense seemed to click just fine....just check the game logs. Hard for me to imagine on an emotional nite the HEAT not coming to play with a great crowd behind them. Personally I think Miami gets to a 100 here.....like many I played CHI +7 -110 but no longer like it think 5.5 is cheap for the defending champs.
Play:
Over 187 +102 Chi & Miami (5x) & over 187 -113 (2x) (174) Loss -7.26
Middled Miami -4.5 -104 & Chi +7 -111 (3x each) xxxxxxx
Miami -4.5 -108 (5x) & -4 -110(2x) Zo's speech was inspiring! Loss -7.60
Team Totals
Over 96.5 +108 Bulls (1.5x) (66) Loss -1.50
Under 106.5 +111 Suns(1.5x) (106) Win +1.66
DISCLAIMER ~
With all the time on spend on football both Pro and College the time hasnt been there to focus on the NBA. Truthfully I think I know what I am doing but using my instincts more then anything here. Just a cautious heads up from me.....if you are tailing......
Working on SMU vs UAB.
NCAAF~
Changed my mind no reason for me to touch this......
GL
Opening Nite NBA and NCAA Football
NBA
Suns @ Lakers
We all should know about the injuries plaguing both teams with stars Kobe and Amare playing but at less then 100%. In fact Kobe didnt appear in a preseason game so even with all his ability that should be a factor. LAL is w/o centers Mihm and Kwame Brown meaning improving youngster Andrew Bynum will get the start and the bulk of minutes. Marion is nicked along with Radmonvic for LAL. Barborsa and Vujacic have minor injuries amd McKie and James Jones are OUT respectively. These teams met in the 1st round of the playoffs were LAL blew a 3-1 lead and we had Raja Bell talking smack to Kobe. They even met twice in the preseason already.......so they are very familiar with eachother.
You look at the meetings last year and see alot of high totals but alot of UNDERS. Funny thing to me is the 1st meeting in Pho the total was to low at 202 and after that it got jacked to 210 to 220 range and was all unders. The star players are less the 100% , the Suns struggled shooting 3 's all preseason and they really struggled shooting from beyond the arc in the 2 preseason games against LAL.
Personally I feel this TOTAL is way to high for the opening game. These teams have history and you know Raja Bell is licking his chops to play Kobe and show the world he can shut him down. To sail over you need both teams to score well above a 100 points. With Kobes absence in the preseason and some new faces you would expect the LAL offense to struggle to get in sync. I really like that LAL for the most part kept PHO offense in check last year. Naturally Amare wasnt around but he isnt 100% yet... Truthfully I think the last 3 meetings in the playoffs should betaken with a grain of salt ...they were all overs but the totals were finally adjusted down atthat point and the last 2 games Raja Bell didnt play. Prior to that hey scored 98 in OT , 92 and 89 in LA and hadnt even topped 110 at home. Last year LAL was a tiny fav at home and now is 5 pt dogs?? Amare is a big difference but that big???
Play :
Under 209.5 -110 LAL & Phoenix(6x) (220)Loss -6.60
Lakers +5 -110 (4x), +7.5 -102 (2x) , +8.5 -110 (1x) SU win 114-106 +7.00
Middled Over 205 -102 & Under 209.5 -110 (3x each) xxxxx
CHI @ Miami
It seems people are falling in love with the idea that CHI will play great defense now that Big Ben is town. I think it has more to do with pace and tempo and it seems like Skiles wants to open the offense more. He recently said PJ Brown will come of the bench with Nochiocini (sp?) starting. That seems to back his statement. As wonderful a player that Wallace is SHAQ did his thing versus him last yer at home when DET came to town. I dont think Jason Williams lost changes much. He missed some time last year and the offense seemed to click just fine....just check the game logs. Hard for me to imagine on an emotional nite the HEAT not coming to play with a great crowd behind them. Personally I think Miami gets to a 100 here.....like many I played CHI +7 -110 but no longer like it think 5.5 is cheap for the defending champs.
Play:
Over 187 +102 Chi & Miami (5x) & over 187 -113 (2x) (174) Loss -7.26
Middled Miami -4.5 -104 & Chi +7 -111 (3x each) xxxxxxx
Miami -4.5 -108 (5x) & -4 -110(2x) Zo's speech was inspiring! Loss -7.60
Team Totals
Over 96.5 +108 Bulls (1.5x) (66) Loss -1.50
Under 106.5 +111 Suns(1.5x) (106) Win +1.66
2nd H
Heat -6.5 -113(2x) L -2.26DISCLAIMER ~
With all the time on spend on football both Pro and College the time hasnt been there to focus on the NBA. Truthfully I think I know what I am doing but using my instincts more then anything here. Just a cautious heads up from me.....if you are tailing......
Working on SMU vs UAB.
NCAAF~
Changed my mind no reason for me to touch this......
GL
Monday, October 30, 2006
Monday Nite Football on Espn
New England travels to Minnesota
Line is around NE -1-113 (ML -120) / 39.5 -105
There is nothing I enjoy more then the opportunity to handicap one game. Its so hard on Saturday and Sunday to express all my thoughts on the games when there are so damn many to talk about. I wish I could just think it and it would transpose itself onto my blog. The weekday games give me the opportunity to focus on one thing.
Anyway earlier in the week I like many thought wow....Vikes +3.....thats a bargain...so I grabbed in at +3 -125 I believe. Then it started to sink and was wondering why? Why did it seem like value? Was it cause they traveled to Seattle and won SU fairly convincingly? My answer was no because I had backed Minnesota in that game cause SEATTLE's Defense had been unraveling week after week. So lets look at this...
We look at what NE has done and you see a 5-1 record. You go underneath the numbers and realize they beat Buffalo twice , Miami and the Jets all really bottomfeeders in the AFC. They lost at home to Denver in a situation where they were overvalued cause of the concerns about Denvers offense. The following week @ Cincy they were extremely undervalued after the home loss and some costly turnovers led them to a convincing SU win away. So really we have seen typical NE football. Solid defense all season but it probably has gotten better as the weeks wore on. Has the offense improved? I am not ready to say that even though I love what Chad Jackson does for them. They scored 4 times last week but 1 was thanks to a short field and the others were all were they started on the NE 30 or better. My concen is can a team repeatedley go 80 or more yards up and down a field? To me NE still hasnt shown me the ability to do so. There key is great defense leading to either a short field on a turnover or putting the opposing offense ina situation where they have to punt deep from there own territory causing a starting point for the NE offense. Looking at Cincy there high offensive output where they scoed the last 24 points of the game they caused 2 Palmer fumbles to start inside the Cincy 20. The Bengals also are thin on defense with tons of injuries @ LB so they are no comparision to Minny's D.
You look @ Minny and see 31 @ Seattle....Seattle's defense is in company with Cincy for whatever reason. Ever since that big lead against NYG at home they have failed to stop anyone(think about the end of the STL game the previous week). So 30 points isnt all that impressive. Its even less impressive when you realize there last TD was off a Wallace fumble who was playing in relief of an injured Hasselback. Then they had a 95 YD TD run. Folks 95 yd TDs whether run or pass are more often then not fluke plays.....someones misses a block or assignment and in a blink your screwed. They had a 40 yd pass to Marcus Robinson who in some ways is there deep threat cause even though Williamson has the legs to stretch the field they hands and coordination arent there yet. The point is Robinson is OUT with a back injury leaving Taylor and Williamson to start both capable WR's but both were concussed last week. Another TD came off a Melwede Moore pass....not sure those type plays work against NE.
The previous week they were outplayed by DET badly but somehow got two 4th Q defensive TDS and won by 6.....Previous to that they couldnt muster enough offense and lost @ Buffalo , they couldnt muster enough offense and lost at home to CHI by 3 when the offensive couldnt produce a TD. They won @ Was in week 1 IMO cause Shawn Springs was out. The offense didnt do much except attack Rumph and Watson @ CB and those two have proven to be horrible and every team is attacking them now. They struggled to beat Carolina without Steve Smith and needed a silly play on a punt return to get there only TD. Actually after that they needed a FG fake and pass from Longwell to sc0re there only TD.
So lets recap Minny season:
Win @ Wash 19-16 ~ They score 2 TDs on offense. Chester Taylor manages only 31c 88yds and a long of 10 yards. Also Hall missed a 47 yder at the end of regulation to tie.
Win Vs Car 16-13 ~ Panthers dont have Smith and led 13-6 with about 11 to play. Minny punting from inside there 10 kick it Gamble who tries a lateral and gives Minny the ball at about the Carolina 20...On 4th and 5 from the 16 longwell throws a TD to Richard Owens..
Lose vs Chi 19-16 ~ Basically up 16-12 Taylor trying to run clock fumbled and gave CHI the short field which Grossman took advantage off after giving Minny the lead with ahorrible INT that went for 6. Minny had 3 FGS on offense but 1 was largely due to a short field off a turnover. Brad Johnson was decent that day 21 of 31 194 yds. Taylor 20c for 74yds but one run was 24 yards so do the math.....19c for 50 on the rest.
Lose @ Buff 12-17 ~ They score a late TD with 3 minutes left but cant get the 2 pt conversion. Here Taylor 10c - 23yds ....Johnson 267 yards but 44 attempts (6.1 avg). The curious part is the offense did nothing 128 yds thru 3 quarters and trailed 17-6 but managed 180 yds of offense in the 4th quarter......was it that prevent defense coupled with the playing with a lead mentality that finally allowed Minny to move the ball?? Seems that way to me...
win vs Det 26-17 ~ two 4th Q turnoves become 13 quick points for minny. They started dow 17-3 but johnson hit Talor for a short TD before the wheels unraveled for DET. Tayor had a solid day 26c 123 yds but not getting overly excited when we are talking about a decent run defense like DET's. Johnson completes 26 of 34 for only 210 yds (5.9). Also note Roy Williams left real early in this one.
At this point I believe it was offense 4 TDS and defense 3 TDS(special teams - Longwell one TD).
Since the two best offenses NE has played would be Denver and Cincy the fact they allowed 30 points combined in those games and held Cincy under 300 of yards off offense doesnt bode well for Minny tonite. Running room will be tough to come by and that leaves a ton of short routes for Brad Johnson to find. Now he is listed as having a bad hammy and that cant be good no matter how severe or not it is. Johnson is good at holding onto the ball though he does have 4 INTS and 5 fumbles to date...he has lost just 1 fumble.
As the owner of the Vikings Defense in my fantasy league I am quite aware of how well they have played and I look for that continue tonite. What concerns is Minnys offense not moving the chains and it eventually wearing down. No matter what one says or thinks the NE offense is still in much better shape then Minnys.
You want to quick recap the NE season. It goes like this. Open up versus buffalo and play awful in the 1st H for whatever erason. When push comes to shove they stop Buffalo on a 4th and 1 and use the momentum to win 19-17 while statistically dominanting the 2nd H.
They then travel to NY where they abuse the J_E_T_S and lead 24-0 though they were referee aided on the last TD. I was in attendance. I preach about how sports is about momentum. Well Cotchery highlight catch that went for a TD was a spark that ignited the jets rally. Remember though they were down 24-0....mid 3rd quarter and rhe Stadium began to empty out saying game over.......
Then they host Denver and get shutdown 17-7. Personally I feel denver and NE are basically equal....neutral field I owuld say NE is -1.5 and I backed DENV huge that Sunday nite.....so nothing really shocking to me. Two tough defenses with basically average offenses and teh points were to good to pass up. As good as Minny D is I dont think its as good as NE or Denvers......yet.
After the home loss they go on to spank Cincy 38-13 aided by 2 4th Q Palmerfumbled which resulted in 14 quick points that iced the game. As with the NYJ game MAroney and Dillon were just to much and Brady makes the plays when he needs to thru the air. Last 2 weeks vs Miami and Buffalo they played grat defense and watched the opposing QB's make costly turnovers which the NE offense took advantage off..
From a turnover standpoint if you said the defenses were equal qwould you agree johnson is more likely to get picked off instead of Brady. Would you agree Taylor or Moore is more likely to fumble rather then NE's duo?? I would think so....
I think both teams will have struggles scoring tonite. I think Maroney coming home coupled with Dillon have a better chance to run then Taylor does vs NE. With 4 options @ WR Brady seems better prepared to make plays in the passing game...9looks like Minny 3 rd option is McMullen).
While the numbers say Minny is real tough against the run and I agree the numbers are skewed when you realize the backs they have faced. Minny has played some very average offenses and worse is the QB's are also very average....while NE offense lacks explosion there is little avg about Brady , Maroney and Dillon.
You can see NE seems to enjoy playing in domes and on turf...winning 9 straight in such conditions. Brady said its almost a relief to play on turf after the slosh of NE's home field. Maroney gets to return home after his outstanding career @ University of Minnesota. Chad Jackson gives them 4 WR's to look for.
As for injuries I have that feeling that Seymour traveled to MINN as a decoy. He probably wont play but I am only guessing. The rest of the NE injury list looks like it will be able to play unless I missed something which you can definetly point out to me. For Minny I would expect everyone outside of Marcus Robinson to play.
I do not believe that NE will overlook a MNF game @ Minnesota(Indy on deck) with Belichek calling the shots.....do you??
The Line??
Think about this Minnesota was only -2 vs Carolina and w/o Steve Smith. Smith is so valuable to that offense I would believe that if he Plays Carolina is a small favorite. Carolina is stronger then Minnesota. Chicago was 3.5 to Minny in the dome? Does anyone believe looking at CHI play away they are better on the road then NE? I sure dont. Minny was only -6.5 at home vs DET and was very lucky to win that. So to me the fair line is -2.5 or -3 here which is where it opened.
Its been down to -1 for a few days and nomatter what you believe or see its getting fairly even action at -1. Which IMO is a soft number....so if the betting public 'buys' into a soft number they tend to be wrong..cause IMO they average joe doesnt understand what a line is or how to devise one. After much work and thought minny would only have value at + 3.5 or better. Its INSANE to believe that Minny should be favored there big win is versus Seattle when its star RB was out and start QB got hurt and didnt play the 2nd H.....otherwise they lost to Buffalo and Chicago....edged out Carolina , Det and Washington.....
Be back shortly with my plays...I already played Minny +3 but will middle that . I played the under @ 38.5 thinking it wont go higher so I wish I waited as it is no w40....
Gimme a few ..........GOOD LUCK
Plays:
Vikings + 3-125 (5x) from earlier in the week but played NE -118 ML (5x) to middle.
(Net cost -1.25)
Under 38.5 -105 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00 & 2nd H middle Over 17.5 -113 (3x) (21) Win +3.00
Under 40.5 -110 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00
Under 19 +100 Minny team(2.5x) (7) Win +2.50
NE ML -118 (8x) & -117(2x) NE Win 31-7 +10.00
1st half Under 20 -110 (2x) WIN 17-0 NE. (+2.00)
My last game comment is while the DOME is unchartered territory for NE this season it can't be a huge concern for me with NE coaching staff. The Moon ceremony coupled with MNF atmosphere is toiugh to overcome but I feel this number is soft not inflated....Waiting to see what the line does BUT how can anyone say there is anything bout equal action at -1? the vig and the number hasnt moved.......sharps?? are just respected bettors NOT all knowing beings from a different galaxy. if the data is correct the sharp shave Minny +3 or maybe 3.5 not Minny +1 IMHO..
I'll be updating and looking for 20-16 but 20-13 possibly...
Also a book like BoDog has Minny +3 -130 IMO to draw the suckers.....most people wont play the Pats there if they can do better everywhere else....just another sign IMO to how bogus the percentages of some of these sites are.....money is split on this game @ -1....and has alot of Minny +3 money.....so who do you think th ebooks need tonite???
New England travels to Minnesota
Line is around NE -1-113 (ML -120) / 39.5 -105
There is nothing I enjoy more then the opportunity to handicap one game. Its so hard on Saturday and Sunday to express all my thoughts on the games when there are so damn many to talk about. I wish I could just think it and it would transpose itself onto my blog. The weekday games give me the opportunity to focus on one thing.
Anyway earlier in the week I like many thought wow....Vikes +3.....thats a bargain...so I grabbed in at +3 -125 I believe. Then it started to sink and was wondering why? Why did it seem like value? Was it cause they traveled to Seattle and won SU fairly convincingly? My answer was no because I had backed Minnesota in that game cause SEATTLE's Defense had been unraveling week after week. So lets look at this...
We look at what NE has done and you see a 5-1 record. You go underneath the numbers and realize they beat Buffalo twice , Miami and the Jets all really bottomfeeders in the AFC. They lost at home to Denver in a situation where they were overvalued cause of the concerns about Denvers offense. The following week @ Cincy they were extremely undervalued after the home loss and some costly turnovers led them to a convincing SU win away. So really we have seen typical NE football. Solid defense all season but it probably has gotten better as the weeks wore on. Has the offense improved? I am not ready to say that even though I love what Chad Jackson does for them. They scored 4 times last week but 1 was thanks to a short field and the others were all were they started on the NE 30 or better. My concen is can a team repeatedley go 80 or more yards up and down a field? To me NE still hasnt shown me the ability to do so. There key is great defense leading to either a short field on a turnover or putting the opposing offense ina situation where they have to punt deep from there own territory causing a starting point for the NE offense. Looking at Cincy there high offensive output where they scoed the last 24 points of the game they caused 2 Palmer fumbles to start inside the Cincy 20. The Bengals also are thin on defense with tons of injuries @ LB so they are no comparision to Minny's D.
You look @ Minny and see 31 @ Seattle....Seattle's defense is in company with Cincy for whatever reason. Ever since that big lead against NYG at home they have failed to stop anyone(think about the end of the STL game the previous week). So 30 points isnt all that impressive. Its even less impressive when you realize there last TD was off a Wallace fumble who was playing in relief of an injured Hasselback. Then they had a 95 YD TD run. Folks 95 yd TDs whether run or pass are more often then not fluke plays.....someones misses a block or assignment and in a blink your screwed. They had a 40 yd pass to Marcus Robinson who in some ways is there deep threat cause even though Williamson has the legs to stretch the field they hands and coordination arent there yet. The point is Robinson is OUT with a back injury leaving Taylor and Williamson to start both capable WR's but both were concussed last week. Another TD came off a Melwede Moore pass....not sure those type plays work against NE.
The previous week they were outplayed by DET badly but somehow got two 4th Q defensive TDS and won by 6.....Previous to that they couldnt muster enough offense and lost @ Buffalo , they couldnt muster enough offense and lost at home to CHI by 3 when the offensive couldnt produce a TD. They won @ Was in week 1 IMO cause Shawn Springs was out. The offense didnt do much except attack Rumph and Watson @ CB and those two have proven to be horrible and every team is attacking them now. They struggled to beat Carolina without Steve Smith and needed a silly play on a punt return to get there only TD. Actually after that they needed a FG fake and pass from Longwell to sc0re there only TD.
So lets recap Minny season:
Win @ Wash 19-16 ~ They score 2 TDs on offense. Chester Taylor manages only 31c 88yds and a long of 10 yards. Also Hall missed a 47 yder at the end of regulation to tie.
Win Vs Car 16-13 ~ Panthers dont have Smith and led 13-6 with about 11 to play. Minny punting from inside there 10 kick it Gamble who tries a lateral and gives Minny the ball at about the Carolina 20...On 4th and 5 from the 16 longwell throws a TD to Richard Owens..
Lose vs Chi 19-16 ~ Basically up 16-12 Taylor trying to run clock fumbled and gave CHI the short field which Grossman took advantage off after giving Minny the lead with ahorrible INT that went for 6. Minny had 3 FGS on offense but 1 was largely due to a short field off a turnover. Brad Johnson was decent that day 21 of 31 194 yds. Taylor 20c for 74yds but one run was 24 yards so do the math.....19c for 50 on the rest.
Lose @ Buff 12-17 ~ They score a late TD with 3 minutes left but cant get the 2 pt conversion. Here Taylor 10c - 23yds ....Johnson 267 yards but 44 attempts (6.1 avg). The curious part is the offense did nothing 128 yds thru 3 quarters and trailed 17-6 but managed 180 yds of offense in the 4th quarter......was it that prevent defense coupled with the playing with a lead mentality that finally allowed Minny to move the ball?? Seems that way to me...
win vs Det 26-17 ~ two 4th Q turnoves become 13 quick points for minny. They started dow 17-3 but johnson hit Talor for a short TD before the wheels unraveled for DET. Tayor had a solid day 26c 123 yds but not getting overly excited when we are talking about a decent run defense like DET's. Johnson completes 26 of 34 for only 210 yds (5.9). Also note Roy Williams left real early in this one.
At this point I believe it was offense 4 TDS and defense 3 TDS(special teams - Longwell one TD).
Since the two best offenses NE has played would be Denver and Cincy the fact they allowed 30 points combined in those games and held Cincy under 300 of yards off offense doesnt bode well for Minny tonite. Running room will be tough to come by and that leaves a ton of short routes for Brad Johnson to find. Now he is listed as having a bad hammy and that cant be good no matter how severe or not it is. Johnson is good at holding onto the ball though he does have 4 INTS and 5 fumbles to date...he has lost just 1 fumble.
As the owner of the Vikings Defense in my fantasy league I am quite aware of how well they have played and I look for that continue tonite. What concerns is Minnys offense not moving the chains and it eventually wearing down. No matter what one says or thinks the NE offense is still in much better shape then Minnys.
You want to quick recap the NE season. It goes like this. Open up versus buffalo and play awful in the 1st H for whatever erason. When push comes to shove they stop Buffalo on a 4th and 1 and use the momentum to win 19-17 while statistically dominanting the 2nd H.
They then travel to NY where they abuse the J_E_T_S and lead 24-0 though they were referee aided on the last TD. I was in attendance. I preach about how sports is about momentum. Well Cotchery highlight catch that went for a TD was a spark that ignited the jets rally. Remember though they were down 24-0....mid 3rd quarter and rhe Stadium began to empty out saying game over.......
Then they host Denver and get shutdown 17-7. Personally I feel denver and NE are basically equal....neutral field I owuld say NE is -1.5 and I backed DENV huge that Sunday nite.....so nothing really shocking to me. Two tough defenses with basically average offenses and teh points were to good to pass up. As good as Minny D is I dont think its as good as NE or Denvers......yet.
After the home loss they go on to spank Cincy 38-13 aided by 2 4th Q Palmerfumbled which resulted in 14 quick points that iced the game. As with the NYJ game MAroney and Dillon were just to much and Brady makes the plays when he needs to thru the air. Last 2 weeks vs Miami and Buffalo they played grat defense and watched the opposing QB's make costly turnovers which the NE offense took advantage off..
From a turnover standpoint if you said the defenses were equal qwould you agree johnson is more likely to get picked off instead of Brady. Would you agree Taylor or Moore is more likely to fumble rather then NE's duo?? I would think so....
I think both teams will have struggles scoring tonite. I think Maroney coming home coupled with Dillon have a better chance to run then Taylor does vs NE. With 4 options @ WR Brady seems better prepared to make plays in the passing game...9looks like Minny 3 rd option is McMullen).
While the numbers say Minny is real tough against the run and I agree the numbers are skewed when you realize the backs they have faced. Minny has played some very average offenses and worse is the QB's are also very average....while NE offense lacks explosion there is little avg about Brady , Maroney and Dillon.
You can see NE seems to enjoy playing in domes and on turf...winning 9 straight in such conditions. Brady said its almost a relief to play on turf after the slosh of NE's home field. Maroney gets to return home after his outstanding career @ University of Minnesota. Chad Jackson gives them 4 WR's to look for.
As for injuries I have that feeling that Seymour traveled to MINN as a decoy. He probably wont play but I am only guessing. The rest of the NE injury list looks like it will be able to play unless I missed something which you can definetly point out to me. For Minny I would expect everyone outside of Marcus Robinson to play.
I do not believe that NE will overlook a MNF game @ Minnesota(Indy on deck) with Belichek calling the shots.....do you??
The Line??
Think about this Minnesota was only -2 vs Carolina and w/o Steve Smith. Smith is so valuable to that offense I would believe that if he Plays Carolina is a small favorite. Carolina is stronger then Minnesota. Chicago was 3.5 to Minny in the dome? Does anyone believe looking at CHI play away they are better on the road then NE? I sure dont. Minny was only -6.5 at home vs DET and was very lucky to win that. So to me the fair line is -2.5 or -3 here which is where it opened.
Its been down to -1 for a few days and nomatter what you believe or see its getting fairly even action at -1. Which IMO is a soft number....so if the betting public 'buys' into a soft number they tend to be wrong..cause IMO they average joe doesnt understand what a line is or how to devise one. After much work and thought minny would only have value at + 3.5 or better. Its INSANE to believe that Minny should be favored there big win is versus Seattle when its star RB was out and start QB got hurt and didnt play the 2nd H.....otherwise they lost to Buffalo and Chicago....edged out Carolina , Det and Washington.....
Be back shortly with my plays...I already played Minny +3 but will middle that . I played the under @ 38.5 thinking it wont go higher so I wish I waited as it is no w40....
Gimme a few ..........GOOD LUCK
Plays:
Vikings + 3-125 (5x) from earlier in the week but played NE -118 ML (5x) to middle.
(Net cost -1.25)
Under 38.5 -105 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00 & 2nd H middle Over 17.5 -113 (3x) (21) Win +3.00
Under 40.5 -110 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00
Under 19 +100 Minny team(2.5x) (7) Win +2.50
NE ML -118 (8x) & -117(2x) NE Win 31-7 +10.00
1st half Under 20 -110 (2x) WIN 17-0 NE. (+2.00)
I think I did well....sure abit lucky with the unders but I had that game firly well pegged except for MIN pass defense. Really won everything ....+6 on the Under , +3 2nd Over which was a hedge , +2 1sT H under , +2.5 Minny under team 19 , +10 NE ML......folks that +23.5x but it cost me -1.25 to middle my original play on Minny..
Net +22.25 units tonite! Makes up for a so-so Sunday! Hope I was of help
My last game comment is while the DOME is unchartered territory for NE this season it can't be a huge concern for me with NE coaching staff. The Moon ceremony coupled with MNF atmosphere is toiugh to overcome but I feel this number is soft not inflated....Waiting to see what the line does BUT how can anyone say there is anything bout equal action at -1? the vig and the number hasnt moved.......sharps?? are just respected bettors NOT all knowing beings from a different galaxy. if the data is correct the sharp shave Minny +3 or maybe 3.5 not Minny +1 IMHO..
I'll be updating and looking for 20-16 but 20-13 possibly...
Also a book like BoDog has Minny +3 -130 IMO to draw the suckers.....most people wont play the Pats there if they can do better everywhere else....just another sign IMO to how bogus the percentages of some of these sites are.....money is split on this game @ -1....and has alot of Minny +3 money.....so who do you think th ebooks need tonite???
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