MLB Thoughts for Saturday

Marlins 1st 5 Innings +181 (2x) , Marlins +1.5 -106RL (1x) , Marlins +197 (1x) & Over 4.5 +100 Florida team (3x)

Really this is fading Leiber in day starts versus a team he doesnt historically pitch well against. Why the 1st 5innings? Two reasons the FLA pen blows so many leads its mind blowing and Moehler is probably only go to be around for 5 maybe 6 innings at best. Now lookin at Moehler his best work has come in day games 3-1 4.68 ERA (4-1). Thoughthe timeoff from injury leaves you wondering exactly where he is. Leiber is only 5-14 at home vs teams with losing records and 1-6 in the day(0-4 5.68 ERA)this year. The spin here is Philly playing well and Fla fading. Last nite the price was high but you had a guy in Hamels who could be lights out I wouldnt expect that from Leiber here. Now Fla has won 7 of 8 in the day . Silly trend is road team is 20-14 with Davidson . Moehler has been serviceable in his 4 career starts(12 runs in 20 2/3) vs Philly while Leiber has been hit hard and lost both at home. His 1st start in April was solid but after that downhill...18runs in 16 innings~

Its hard to back FLA now and the lines are designed to make you see value in them. However after people got hurt with them last nite I am hoping they are a bit gun shy to back them...seems like late Philly money which I like.

Nationals +150 1st 5 Inn(2x), Nats +150 (1x) & Under 5 -112 NYM (3x)

Simply a fade of the Mets who I still contend struggle against LHP. O'Connor looked good last outing and pitched well in the 1st encounter. Welke has 8.32 rusn against average...

White Sox -124 (4x)

Many small factors. First king Felix has struggled on the road and dropped 5 of the last 6 away. His innings have been limited lately to keep his season total in check. He faced Chi twice and been rather avergae in both. Now Seattle is playing well and the White Sox falling to pieces but this price is cheap. Buerhle doesnt have great day splits but has a decent 4.30 ERA @ Home. Only facing SEA once @ Safeco he pitched a soldi game 7 inninsg and 4 runs. In 5 home starst vs Seattle he has allowed only 8 runs , gone at least seven inninsg 5 times and only allowed 3 runs one time. Seattle is 21-25 in day agmes and 19-23 vs LHP. The Sox are 33-22 in day games and 9-4 after losing 3 straight. Woukld like to go under sattle 4.5 runs but they are swinging hot bats

Under 9 -103 Oakland & LAA (4x) & Under 4.5 +107 1st 5 Inn (1x) & LAA +100 (2x)

Liked it last nite and lost thanks to 2 great pens allowing 6 runnings in the final 4 frames and Houston Street being 1 out away from a save! Blanton has pitched verywell athome vs LAA in his career and the same is said for LAckey who generally pitches better away past 2 seasons. Iassogona behind the dish 18-13 UNDER mark with 8.82 runs. Angels cored more then 4 runs just twice past 10. LAckey 6 career starts in Oakland see on 3 occassions allowing 2 runs , two ocassion no runs including a CG 1 hitter and 1 shelling! Blanton has 5 of 6 solid vs LAA in his career with some strong 8 inning outings. LAckeyhas great day splits but Blantosn 4.93 era is concerning.

Reds +134(3x)

Zambrano's away numbers are sick but no way he should be anything over -120 in this game. Lohse inconsistent as hell but at least rebounded inHouston to pitch a decent game with some nice home starts. Early on when Chi and Cincy were healthy Zambrano was -124 against Harang and later -110 vs Claussen. So after dropping 12 of 14 away the price goes up?? Carlos was only -158 at HOME versus Milton last week. For as good as Zambrano has pitched he has struggled some vs Cincy and at Great American. Lohse has made 9 starts and only 2 have been bad and 2 average the rest were solid work.

Thinking about Baltimore still...and working on the nite schedule.

Some Nite action:

Brewers -138 (4x)

I hate riding one team in a series (had Milw thurs and Fri) but just keep saying MILW as undervalued. If you need to understand this play look at my post yesterday cause again its Lefty vs Lefty. Bottomline is Capuano is clearly better then Doug Davis nearly a run less at home and consistently goes 7 or more innings and allows 3 runs or less @ Miller. Lowry I question his health and has been awful on the road. I hate when teams still a win lie MILW did late but they had no business blwoing a 5 run lead either. HINT- IBB BONDS!!!

With Oswalt at home vs STL and 6 of 7 versus them 1 run or less I think he is cheap opposing Reyes. However after 2 comeback wins and Oswalt leaving his last start due to injury I will pass.

Looking atriding Zona again ML & +1.5

Under 9.5 -114 DET & KC (4x)& Under 5 1st 5 inn +10 (2x)

Expected 9 here. Think Redman can give a solid 6 or 7 here as he as been tough at home past 2 starts and has solid splits. DET doesnt hit LHP(15-31 under) all that well and the same can be said for KC(12-33SU but over biased). Rogers on a nice run lately since he made some adjustments.


Under NYY 10-120(3x) & Under 5.5 -108 1st 5 (2x)

Outside of the drubbing they laid on Joe Sanders my Yanks have struggled to hit LH's away recently. Go back tolast trip Bedard , Loewen , and DeLaRosa all had quality outinsg vs them. before that Washburn and Wells held them to 2 runs but they drubbed Jon Lester who wasnt 100% at the time. Trip before that Loewena nd Chen gave them troubles....Howell is medicore ta best but LH.....RJ struggles vs TB but new faces and these Rays havent topped 4 runs in at least 10 games. It appears many Yanks could getthe nite off. Hallion has become an UNDER ump 8.91 per. HAt eto say it +180 looks ATTRACTIVE.

Still thinking about Balt! GL

Must admit that the FLA plays were lost in teh 1st inning.......2out bases loaded 1run in and the backup catcher up......getthe out MOMENTUM i syours. They dont 3-0 and look to be dead.


Thanks Redman! I wanted to play DET but lost track of time!

Anway plaing Zona ML and Zona +1.5 for (1.5x each)

Thats all

NFL week 3 Discussion

Carolina @ TB
Just about every way I slice it Carolina is the only thing I would play. Expect Smith to play but aganst a tough defense he is probably more of a decoy. Carolina is battling injuries and Drew Carter is also questionable. They have 2 starting OL out here plus Morgan on defense and a starting safety. TB has defensive injuries to Rice , Boogar and Hovan butall look to play.

Before the TB win in Carolina the Panthers had taken 5 straight and last 3 in TB. I just dont like the OL situation here . TB cant establish the run andits proven Simms cant beat you throwing it. Witnesss the 6 picks compared to Delhomme's 1 . Like the fact Carolina made use of D'Angelo Willaims last week and look for that to continue. Carolina had Minny all butbeaten till the silly punt return muff. They held the Vikes to 6 points and a fake FG for a TD....TB would be a comparable offense to Minnys IMO. In a close game I'll take Kasay over Bryant. TB couldnt stop the ATL ground game so this should be interetsing for both run defenses cause Carolina struggles against the run.

Do I like the spread.....hard to say it should only be a PK but -2 is probably correct anything that ends at 3.5 and above might have TB value.....I think it will be that close.

Chicago @ Minnesota

I think the key here is simply can Chicago run theball. If they cant its will be tough on Grossman cause he is facing a Minny team that has slowed down the passing game. Dont get me wrong they played teams lacking there superstars but only 5.4 yds per attempt. Grossman played in the Dome a few years back and played well against a completely different Vikes team. The Vikes lost Erasmus James who will be missed and have 5 key players on the injured list as questionable. Two WR's Robinson and Williamson , Winfield @ CB , Harris @ LB , Hicks @ OG. The Bears are healthy but I think again with the move this line is INFLATED...at 4 or better yo might have to take Minny..What's key about Minny is Brad Johnson tends to avoid urnovers and that is what might win this game....one mistake. Very nervous about this play but I see Minny failing against Pitt and even Carolina last week two similiar teams to Chicago. have a feeling its CHI by 3. Like te Under 35 but dont understand why it ws being bet up from 3 to 35 this week. As I mentiond Minny couldnt score against Pitt last year and need a fake FG for a TD...

Play: Bears -2.5 -110 (3x) -3-120(1x) & Under 15.5 -108 Minnesota Team Total (3x)

Cincy @ Pittsburgh
Both teams have reasons for payback. Obviously Pitt wants to defend its home field and not hav ecincy come to there place in consecutive games and win. For Cincy they want payback for what happened to Palmer , only thing is Kimo is now a Jet.

I think Cincy has to many injuries here. All the WRs are banged up outside Kelley Washington. They have 2 banged up OL and 2 bangd up middle LB's. Those are somekey spots. Pitt's Polamu is hurtin but the defense played fairly well to date. The problem on Monday IMO was simple. Ben was rusty for obvius reasons. The bad part is the foolish Pitt staff didnt try to pound the ball or work of the run. They just put it in Ben's hands and his accuracy sucked! have to like the home team here as Cincy has played 2 teams we thought would be better but simply are not.

Pitt -2.5 -110 (3x)
Pitt ML -113(3x) & Over 41 -108 (3x)

The rest of the 1PM's:

Jaguars +7 .5 -120 (6x) & Over 42 +101 (2x) & Over 17.5 -104 Jags Team (2x)
Both teams battling injuries and I think INDYs are more severe. Losing your PK is always a dicey situation. Indy has failed to run the ball and is one dimensonal to a degree. Wasnt sure of Matt Jones status and I heard he will start now. Think Jags threw very well and Sanders out now . Game always means more to the 'dog' jags and they will show up here even after that MNF battle. They are having fun and that alwasy masks the pain...

Lions -6.5 -104 (3x)& Under GB 16.5 -107 (2x)
If Det duplicates the defensive effort vs Seattle, then GB without Green will be in trouble. This offense will killed by drops vs GB and cant see how it improves in theer first road game. The concern is the lack of LION offense but GB can be thrown on....enter Roy Williams who I think has a big day. One concern with the team total is GB passing a ton w/o a running game.....

Over 23 Miami -103 Team Total (3x) Over 35 -105 Miami (4x)

Tenny hasnt slowed anyone done yet and Miami needs to get this offense going. Both teams have offensive firepower.....

Browns +7.5 -110 (3x)

There isnt much to like about Cleveland especially with a banged up team and depleted secondary. This is about trusting in Crennel. I do think Winslows comments woke them up some . Baltimore's offense hasnt impressed me at all. Great opening drive vs TB and then zip till TB defense tired. Last week numerous chances to score when OAK was literally handing them the ball and they couldnt. I cant see backing a team laying 7 away when your relying heavily on there defense.

NYJets +6 -110 (1x)

Teaser : Jets +16 , Miami -.5 and Under 45 Bears (3x)

Thats all for now !! GL be back!

Part II: 2nd half

Over 17.5 +106 (2.5x) Miami & Tenny

Det -5 -101 (2x)

Part III: 4PM

San Fran +7 -115 (6x) & Over 42 -110 Philly (2.5x)

Seahawks (BOUGHT IT DOWN ) -2.5 -125 (7x)
Under 45 -110 Seattle (3x) played earlier in week

Rams +4.5 -104 (4x) & Over 43 -111 (4x)

Friday Baseball Thoughts

Well last nite the tables finally turned to some degree. After 10 days of bad beats I went on a run. Basically outsid eof the Col - Atl game I hit every single play I made at nite. Started with Boston upsetting Johan Santana in a game which I had Boston ML , Boston +1.5 RL and the under 4.5 runs Twins team total . Kept in ghoing in NY with the Marlins ML , Over 3 Florida and Under 3.5 NYM team totals . then Berks 2 run Hr gave me Houston ML , had SD ML , and Milw ..only needed 1 run in Coors to get the over ...Had Under GT and Under 28.5 GT as well......nice turnaround after Sabathia 's error destroyed me and DET fell asleep nlowing a 3-0 lead.

Okay this Baseball card is MARGINAL IMO-

National League

Under 9 +101 Houston & StL(3x) Pitching Change- No Play

Might seem like a curious play but Hirsch has pitched well past 4 starts and received minimal run support at home in 3 starts(not suprising). Marquis has pitched some solid games against Houston including 2 of his past 3 in Houston. I think Marquis last 6 or 7 away starts have all been quality. The one @ Shea doesnt show it but I was actually there and he just got some bad breaks before tiring in the 6th... He is also pitching for a role in the postseason IMO.

Houston only 248 BAA vs RHP @ Home while STL just .255 BAA away vs RHP

One intriguing angle was Angel Hernandez behind the dish. Early on he was an ovber UMP lately quite the opposite. In his last 10 games behind the dish 8 have gone UNDER. Better is that in those 8 only 1 saw more then 5 runs......

Over 4.5 -101 Mets team Total(2x)

Didnt want to get crazy here w/o seeing the lineup as I have liked the METS ML as well. Botomline is Pedro Astacio is on the hill and while he might want to recapture something from his Mets days his away numbers are POOR. In 6 starts his runs against is 9 +!! His last 3 starts have seen the opposition score 10 runs + and in al 3 he failed to complete 3 innings allowing 20 runs in those starts.


Cubbies -117 (2x)

I will have to admit the line is suprising. However I think there is purpose behind it. The purpose to make you think there is value in Cincy . Truth is the line is a bit off..probably shopuld be closer to a PKem or maybe Chi -110. Not that Cinccy has lost its sparkplug for the year Ryan Freel you have to believe there offense will only go further south . Michalak is PURE major league journeyman and nothing more. Aramis is swinging a hot bat and he might be enough. Cincy .175 L10 vs LHP and Hill has been en fuego ...always be cautious of the rematch though..Looking at team totals Over 4.5 Cubc and Under 4 reds here as well

Brewers -122 (5x) & -1.5 +179(1x) & Under 4 -103 SF team total (3x)

Doug Davis is pitching well of late and continues to pitch well @ Miller Park. The key here is SF really struggles to score against LHP on the road. They have LOST 11 0f 13 away vs a LHP and the 2 wins werewith Matt Cain was on the hill and we know how hot is. Conversley Milw is 24-11 L35 @ Home vs LHP. Now I admit thats misleading to a degree cause Milw traded RH slugger Carlos Lee a few months back. Bottom line we Davis pitching well of late and 10-6 3.84 ERA @ home versus a team who struggles to hit off lefties. Ialso believe in the 17 raod games vs LHP SFG has mustered more then 4 runs on 3 occassions. One was recently in Colorado in a 20-8 loss to a AA SP.

Diamondbacks +168 (1.5units) & +1.5 RL -135 (1.5X)

This was more a play against LAD at the price. Lowe has struggled vs Arizona siince coming to LA. Thi si sprobably true of Vargas as well though. The key is how well VArgas ahs pitched aay lately combined with Nomar and Kent both ailing.

Stayed away from COORS cause I hear it might now or is snowing....Basically might add Over 4.5 Cubbies , Under 4.5 Reds and NYM at some point.

ADDED - Under 9.5 -109 Philly (2x)

American League

Orioles +107 (3x) & -1.5 +210 (unit) value play

Well we have my Carlos SIlva fade in effect when on the road. Now I tip my hat to the guy who has pithced 3 excellent games in arow. Just not sure how a SP who was +110 a few weeks back in Balt(vs Loewen) and got hit real hard who sports a 5-10 away record and dropped 4 straight to his opponent should be favored. Cabrera is a mystery but generally is decent to good at home. With that in mind he has pitched some quality games against Minnesota. The O's have managed to win 4 of 5 , did Melvin Mora wake this team up?? O's spank RH's and hav 20 hits and 11 runs off Silva in 2006. Another tidbit was Silva was taken deep 5 x in his last Camden appearnace while Cabrera has allowed just 5 runs in his past 5 starts to Minny spanning nearly 33 innings.

Under 9.5 -103 baltimore(2x)

This probably looks liek a high scoring affair but with Cabrera's track record at home and vs Minny combined with Silva suddely pitching extremely well...we just might have a pitchers duel !

Blue Jays -142 (2x)

They defetaed John Santana and Big Papi hit 2 Hrs and broke the record.....then they have to fly to Toronto. Bottomline is lilly tends to pitch very well vs Boston who also doesnt happen to hit LHP all that well.

Thats actually it for now:
Looking at KC over 4 team total , LAA -102 and Under 8 -104 Oakland.

Will be adding the Under in Oakland later.

Under Oakland +100 (3x)

GL- NCAA posted in other thread

Screwed in the bottom of the 8th by the twins pen! uhhhhhhhhh

Thursday Baseball Thoughts & NCAAF

Day Games:

Cleveland +113(5x)

You have he return of Rich Harden who is on a pitch limt of somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-80 pitches there are conflicting reports. Due to the end of the minor league season his only rehab action from what I understand is simulated games where he went as high as 60 pitches and claims to feel good. His fastball ws 90-92 MPH last time out and I think I have to agree with Harden about this . He said the adrenaline of game action should add a few MPHs but I dont think he will be 95-99 like he can be. Basically I think Windsor a Top Prospect and canditate for the rotation after Zito leaves will come in for long relief after that. Macha is real concerned about the possibilty of a short outing and taxing his pen with a big series against LAA coming up. So is he playing to win here or just escape?

On the flip we have CC Sabathia. Sabathia has turned into a workhorse putting up 8 INN + in 8 of 13 away starts since being injured in the road (season)opener. The A's have a couple of solid bats vs LH but most of them see a decline in productivity against LHP. One key bat is Bobby Kielty who hits LH well(.327 7hrs) and Sabathia(9/26). Thomas only. 232 with 9Hrs vs LHP but great day splits 302 16 hrs. If Kendall sits the lineup will be thin at th ebottom with guys who dont hit LHP well and/or have bad day splits- Ellis , Scutaro , A. Perez , Melhuse. While Bradley , Kielty and Payton in the middle all have real solid but not spectular numbers.

A big key was Sabathia 's DAY ERA of 2.00 in 73 Innings. He also has seen 9 of 10 day starts go under. A's are .240 last 10 vs LHP but they do have a tremendous38-19 day record. What I am hoping is they use this as tune up for the LAA series. Which seems plausable.

Under 4.5 -113 Oakland Team Total (4x)

Already mentioning the possibility of a week bottom of the order lineup and Sabathi 2ERA in the day. In Sabathia's L10 starts the opponent has scored 4 or less RUNS in 9 of them. Of his 14 road starts the opposition has scored 4 runs or less in 10 of them. Whoever comes from the Tribe pen should be one of the better guys likeBetancourt or Jason Davis and for what should be a short period 10 of 13 are 7+Inn and teh other three were 6 inings.


Tigers -129 (now 4x from 3x)

This part situational- Balt played a day game yesterday and flew back from TB and now has to play what to them is a meaningles makeup game vs DET. Obviously with Minny breathing down its neck this is a big game for the Tigers who still own the best road record. Balt is ONLY 15-33 vs LHP and Robertson just shut them out 2-0 against Benson as well(hate the rematch). Robertson L3 starst have been solid allowing just 3 runs (2earned) in 22 innings. Nate sports a 3.50 ERA on the road.

Benson has also pitched very well lately 6runs in 23 innings L3. He was on the wrong side of that 2-0 loss to Robertson. The knock on him is his 4-8 team record when he starts @ Camden with a 4.01 ERA telling me they dont hit for him at home. The real BLACK EYE are his Day splits-
1-4 (2-5team) 7.17ERA 37 2/3 Inn 51 H 32R/30ER 10Hrs. Last yr also a 1 run higher difference in Day-Nite splits....7.17 vs 3.81 this year!


The rest :

Fla +129 (2units)

Just fading Pedro till he shows us he has found his command. Not to mention Anabel Sanchez has been one of the Hottest SP in baseball for the past 2 months with sick Nite splits.

Team Totals:

Over 3 Fla -123 (3units) & Under 3.5 +109 NYM (2units)

Sanchez has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 straight but in 8 of those it was 2 or less. That i shelped by Home Plate UMP Eddings and his typical big zone and low scoring affairs. The Over cause I dont see Pedro as healthy yet and 4 og 6 and 6 of 10 he has allowed at least 4 runs. He does have ggreat stats vs FLA but again he isnt PEDRO yet. Definetly was taking to heart his last outing which makes me wonder was there something more going on there then we know? Or did he simply just expect to walk to teh mound and dominate ?

Astros +125 (2units)

First concern is Andy's elbow but he has a good track record( before the injury shortened start he had 8 of 9 vs STL with at least 6 innings and 3 runs or less) vs StL if he is okay. The Cards just struggle vs LHP this year . Carpenter hasnt been sharp this year on the road(8-6 4.52 era) and pitches poorly for him @ Minute Maid. Cards 7-20 L27 away . Carpenter did shutout the Stros in StL on 9/11...previous 2 strarts this year though 14 innings and 9 runs at Minute Maid...last three in Houston all 4 runs allowed.

Two stats to chew on: STL is 3-13 vs LHP on the road and 5-16 L 21 as Road chalk.

Brewers -121 (5x)

Morris and Ex-Card has pitched well in MILW in the past but now he is a Giant. Bush has been extremely solid at home:

3.43 ERA 102 1/3 Inn 82 H 20BB 88K(team 11-4 in 15 starts)

Bush known to struggle on the road pitched 8 INN 3Hitter that he lost 2-0 in SF.

Morris 0-3 past 3 starts witha 7ERA won his last 4 in Milw as a Cardinal...

With teams avg 3.47 per against Bush this year @ Miller

Under 4 -108 SF team total(2x)

Over 9.5 +101 Colorado & ATL (now 2x from 3x) and Over 4 -128 Colorado Team Total (3x)

Smoltz on the road is 10-6 Over with a 4.23 era. Smoltz had struggled some before the solid home start vs FLA. You always wonder at 39 what he has left in the tankl at this point. Kim tend sto pitch well at home with a 3.97 ERA

BAsically riding theRockies over STREAK here.

Rockies +122 (3x)

SD +101 (5x)

Real simple take away the SP's names and focus on the numbers.

Arizona 2-10 Last 12 away and won last nite. Then 7-15 following a win and 5-15 if they scored more then 5 runs in that win. SD is 12-3 last 15 as Home dog and 13-3 in Game's 3 at home last 16 series. SD 14-5 this yr when WIlliams starts vs a team witha losing record and 20-9 L29 in that situation.

Williams 6-3 at Home with a 3.19 ERA in 62 innings. Webb is 7-9 with a 3.35 ERA away in 110 innings. Webb has lost 4 of 5 away in the 2nd Hand has allowed at least 4+ runs n four of them but the other was 5 Inn and 3 runs......not exactly quality ....

Williams has won 6 of 7 starts but was outdueled by Webb in Zona...the line was only -135 which makes even money here look steep.

Boston +156 (2.5x) & +1.5 -111 Boston (3x) & Under 4.5 Minny -111 (2x)

Santana again has slipped up some on the road and despite being 6-2 away in the 2nd Half he has bbeen hit around some. He also won 4 of the 6 by 1 run. While Minny is rolling and Boston stinking vs LHP its a tough call but I think this number is INFLATED...

GL

Wednesday Baseball Thoughts

Under 8 -122 Houston & Cincy (5x)

The Rocket returned last week and after a 2 out walk and SB to Utley he decided to IBB Ryan Howard. Well he then lost David Dellucci and with the bases loaded on 3 walks allowed a GRAND SLAM to Pat' The Bat' Burrell. He lasted 5 innings and after that Grannie allowed just 2 hits and 2 bbs thru his final four. Clemens has pitched solid baseball against the REDS since joining Houston and my only concern is what is his innings limit is here , if any. The Reds and Astros both have poor splits for DAY games. With Cincy the UNDER is 21-7-2 past 30 day starts. Bronson has turned the corner after a midseason slump and in his past starts no opponent has scored more then 4 runs( 4 , 3 , 2 and 0 were twice...11 runs allowed over past 7 starts) . He has won 4 straight and 6 of 7. Rocket in his career has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of 7 outings vs Cincy( the lone start was @ Cincy). Arooyo away and in the day is 11-4 UNDER and Clemens day ERA is 2.54.

Clemens with some time of in bewteen starts has only allowed 7 hits in his past 3 starts spanning 17 innings(1 run outside of the grannie). Arroyo has been even sharper past 3 starts allwoing just 2 runs in 25 innings and 11 hits...21 K's. Fully expected to see 7.5 maybe even 7 here....

I would expect at least 6 and maybe 7 from rocket and would hope for 7+ from Arroyo shortening the bullpen outings. Also this appears to be the Rocket's last home start of the season and possibly in Houston...somethingto chew on.

Astros -131 (2x)

With the Reds struggling on offense just as much as Houston and posting a 7-22 L29 day games, 3-11 L14 away and hav dropped 7 of the past 8 games AFTER a WIN. The Reds had struggled in Houston in recent years but have won 6 of 8 this year(11-33 L44 prior to 2006). If we are talking even offenses(both are .240 during the day) then I will take the home team with the Rocket on the hill as most will see value in the Dog.

Rockies +110 (3units) & Under 5.5 First 5 -109 (2units)

Really this is just backing a smoking HOT Colorado team at home. It's now 7 straight home wins and 19-10 since the break at Coors. The Rockies have won 4 of 6 at home in the 2nd H when Cook starts. Three times he has gone 8 innings snd allowed 2 runs, then 7 innings and 3 runs , 6 1/3 innings with 4 runs and a shelling vs Arizona. Now SF is playing better recently in day games 6-1 after a nite game but just 2-7 as roack chalk under -150. Always tough fading a SP of the quality of Jason Schidmt but Coors hasnt been friendly to him and the pen in SF is shaky.

With Tschida behind the dish and his wide zone expectations are for a low scorer game. Especially with 2 SP's who struggle to run support. With Schidmt its feast or famine whne he pitches ...a shutout or 7 runs and seeing how Cook has been fairly consistent at home lately famine looks closer to what will happen.

NEW INFO& CHANGES

Devil Rays -124 (4x up from 3x) & Rays Over 5 Runs game +100 (3x) & Over 10 +106 (3x)

Seo has actually pitched fairly well since 8/1 when they decided it was best to make sure he stays in the rotation ona regular turn . He has 6 quality starts in that span but unfortunately they just dont hit when he pitches...

Penn just has struggled to an amazing level for some reason for a guy who is a top prospect with ML experience. The total play on TB is a reflection of that simce Penn has allowed at least 7 runs by the third inning in all of his starts(22 runs in 6 1/3 inn over 3 starts) and the opposition has score 10,9 and 17 in those starts. At some point he will begun to pitch better but hopefully iots not today.

The new stuff on this game were more about trends that I discovered. The O's have NOT won 4 straight away all season or swept a road series. They are 3-7 after 3 consecutive wins. Believe it or not but TB in 3 or 4 game series has faced a SWEEP game only 3x this year in Tampa. All 3 x times they won the final game to avoid the sweep. The O's are 3-16 on the road as DOGS of +100 to +125 where TB is 20-8 L28 times they have been favored. I added a play on the total cause I cant understand the under pressure...Silly trends have O's 12-6 Over when a road dog of less then 125 , 14-9 Over road total of 10 or 10.5 , 8-2 over after 3 consecutive wins , 8-0 OVER with this home Plate UMP in games he has 10 or 10.5 totals. Balt resting Mora and Hernandez here starting guys like Newhan 4/31 day , Chavez , Gibbons .197 1 Hr , Patterson and Millar low .230's in teh day . Penns been bad period but 2 of 3 have been DAY starts.

Red Sox -128 (3x)

Real tough call with Schilling out for 3 weeks and probably restricted to 80 pitches or so. I just dont trust Boonser on the road yet and I am not sure he can pitch as well at Boston as he did vs inferior lineups in Cle and TB. Schilling has dropped his l;ast 5 starts including 2 at home but the home games were clearly not his fault and is still 9-3 at home. With Johan Santana pitching tmrw against Beckett this might be there best spot to grab a win as they dont hit LHP all that welland Santana is king of the hill right now! Okay well I just saw the LINE for Santana @ fenway ....-164 and played Boston/Beckett @ +156 ABSURD price IMO...

Rangers -138(2x)

Robinson Tejada has looked real good in his return to the rotation and you could say the same for Baek. However Baek just unexplicably lost command last outing vsToronto and got shelled in that 3rd inning...so was able to work on the side and rediscover it??? Obviously I dont think so. I think Baek is a question mark but I would like the Under here since Baek has pitched well against Texas.



Under 9.5 -122 DET & ChiW(4x)

Bonderman versus Garland. Bonderman despite recent struggles away has pitched better on the road this season and his last couple at Chicago have been solid as 3 of his 4 starts vs CHI this yr were. Garland last 2 vs DET were excellent and he has been failrly consistent since a slow start. Leaning towards DET here...

Under 8.5 -117 NYM & Fla (now 8x from 5x)

Willis has a 3.30 road ERA and FLA only score 3.44 runs per road start. Oliver Perez has improved since being recalled from AAA. He last pitched versus FLA in Pro Player and had 11 K's in 5 Inn. his last home start was a CG 3 hit shutout(12K's) of Atlanta and his other SHEA start was solid vs Philly. Only lasted 5 innings cause he fell apart in the 5th allowing a Grannie but that was one of only 2 hits allowed , its always the walks and longballs that kill him. Who knows what type of lineup NY will run out but there real lineup has struggled against LHP since the Nady deal.

New:

Over 9.5 +109 Phi& ChiC(4x) could we see o/u9?

Myers is one of the rare quality SP's who has slightily better road splits then home splits...probably not all that strange when considering Philly's home park is a bandbox. Factor in a 4.58 NITE era and he should get touched for a few runs here. Now a big key to Myers lack of success at home is the lack of run support he receives...the stud has dropped 5 straight at home. Last home win when he started June 19th 4-2 vs NYY(overdue for a win). He had 3 starts in his recent 5 games home slide where went 8 innings and allowed only 1,3,1 runs BUT LOST! I owuld say about 70% of his home starts are high quality. With Walrond opposing Philly here they should face another LHP (like Sean Marshall in the opener) that is extremely hittable. Walronds command doesnt impress me and that leaves to grooving pitches IMO. He has been solid on LHB but RHB have slugged him especially away . Obviously all limited work .

Nationals -102 (2units)

Dont understand why Cormier after a poor effort is favored. Last time he pitched there he was a small dog to Astacio and WASH won 5-0. See Ortiz as a similiar SP to as Astcaio, only success comes at home. Now cormier had been pitching fairly well but I still cant see why he is favored. With that in mind I would lean towrads the Under 9.5 just cause these lineups are so inconsistent on offense..

Under 9 +102 Milw & STL (4x)

Suppan has had a tremendous 2nd H but still has some struggles away. In that 2nd H he has 3 extremely solid away starts but 3 that are so-so or poor. Before his 2006 start @ MILW he had dominanted at MILW as a Cardinal. Last yr he 3 starst were 3-0 ,3-0 and 2-0 wins. Impressive to say the least. He went 23 1/3 innings with NO RUNS allowed and 15 hits, in 2004 he won 5-2 and went 7 1/3 inning allowing 1 run!!!! In those seasons though Suppan was better away then at Busch. He didnt pitch well @ MILW this season BUT fortunately he wont face Weeks and probably Hall sits out. Now he did rebound with a 7 + inning 1 run outin early August. Th eUNDER is 7-1-1 past 9 vs MILW. The other SP is Carlos Villanueva who has pitched okay and if Suppan is vintage allwoing 3 or less I really love my chances. Reilly behind the dish is a wide zone low scoring UMP(8.84 runs)

SD -163 (2x or 3x)

Fading Edgar G. Gonzalez who just cant seem to win a ML start despite being solid in FLA upon his recent return. The bottomline is hefty price BUT Wells has been decent recently and pitches better at home and this is his SD home debut. Arizona struggles mightily against LHP especially on the road. They generally struggle to top 3 runs vs LHP...notice the heavy vig on the Padre team total UND 3.5 runs. SD offense has improved recently but still incosnistent 10+runs in 4 of past 10 but 4runs or less in 5 of 10.

Hensley was -140 to Livan so this line makes sense IMO.

In LAD looking at Pitt +212 and Und 8.5 -103.

Under 9.5 -105 Boston (2x) CANCEL

Cant ignore Booners improvement and a still somewhat depleted Boston lineup. Again thinking Schilling will be okay.

Lean

Under 10.5 Texas

Det +106

Under 9.5 Oakland

PARLAY LAA -146 & PHILLY -259

more-

Phillies -125 -1.5 RL (3x)

Tigers +107 (3x)

BAd Luck again the Mets under.................

10PM's

Under 8.5 -120 SD (3x) & SD was (3x)

Under 8.5 +105 LAD (3x) Pirates +210 (2x) Under 4.5 LAD Runs +137

Under 5.5 First 5 Inn Oak (2x) & Under 4 Cleveland (3x) -105 & Und 9.5 +105(2x)

NCAA Football 9 /21 to 9/23

Thursday Nite

Under 40 -110 Georgia Tech & Virginia (4x)

Really we have 2 struggling offenses here and in game that is historically low scoring. What has Virginia done on offense this season without Hagan and Lundy?? Well at home vs Western Michigan the managed 255 yards at home!!!! The prior week they managed 13 points versus Wyoming and it was 6 -6 after 4 quarters! Oh but they broke 200 yards and cant run the ball at all ....they have used 3 QB's... Georgia Tech on the other hand held ND to 14 points at home. In 6 home games last year UNC scored 21 , UConn 13 , Wake 17 , Clemson 9 , NCST 17 and Georgia 14. One concern is that @ Pitt they did throw 2 Pick 6's for 14 of the 38 points. As well as two 1st down 70++ yard TD passes.

GT broke out in the 4th quarter versus Troy but you would think that was just them wearing down after FSU and 3 tight quarters with GT(tied @ 14 in the 3rd Q).

The total was 45 in Virgina last yr(27-17) and GT lost Daniels and Bilbo while Hagans and Lundy are gone from the Cavs in what is a rebuilding season now.

Result GT wins 24 -7 (+4x)

Under 48.5 -110 Northwestern & Nevada (3x) Change Bought over 45 -120(1.5x) so we have a middle for half now

The Wildcats have struggled mightily on offense this year. It started in week 1 playing a Miami Ohio team decimated by graduation and managed 14 points of offense. They returned home and got thumped by a 1 AA New Hampshire squad possibly cause of the emotional distraction of playing a home game without Coach Randy Walker who passed away shortly before the season started. Now versus an Eastern Michigan team playing its 3rd straight away game and they didnt do much at home. So now they travel to Nevada who has a couple of decent defensive efforts vs CSU and Fresno under its belt and should have enough to keep the WIldcat offense silent. The Wildcat defense has played well and gained valuable experience last season. Really tough to take the points here after Nwestern past 2 games so 27-17 is what I am thinking.


Result : Nevada wins 31-21(pick 6 to end it with 2 min left...mf'ers!) (-1.8x)

Virgina +17 -110 (2x)

I am fully aware that Virginia is throwing a redshirt freshman out there vs a very complex defense. This is quite simply a play against GT as -17 point favs more then anything. There are a defensive minded team playing an ACC game vs a team that has troubled them...Troy was a smaller dog and hung with them till the 4th q(14-14 after 3)... not sold on the GT offense and teh key is the big play....Cavs allowed 38 to Pitt...2 defensive TD's and 2 1st down 70+ yd TD passes..

Result Lose 24-7 PUSH- Buy the hook off a key number dummy!

Under 28.5 -125 GTech Team Total (2x)

Result :GT scores 27 (+2x)

Under 21.5 -150 Northwestern (3x)

Wildcat offense has struggled and I just dont see what has changed

Result : Northwestern scores 21 (+3x)

Saturday's Thoughts

Michigan -13 -110 (4x) & Wisconsin Under 14.5 -121 (1x)Middled w/Wisconsin +14.5 -109 (1x)
Is it me or would people rather talk letdown after the ND win and overlook the momentum that it could build? I mean Michigan LOST to these schools last year and I am sure they have these rematches circled. So there is no letdown in motivation this week. Clearly Michigan underacheived last season and you have to love how they looked vs ND just hitting on all cylinders. What has Wisky done? They dont have much on offense as evidenced by the scoreless 1st H vs SDST and 14points. This game reminds me so much of when Wisky traveled to Penn State last year as 13 PT dogs and just got whipped! Now granted this Michigan team is NOT Penn State of last year but couldnt be and is it far off? With a young stud RB to rely on playing his 1st big game and a QB still working hsi way back from surgery....I dont see where the points will come from. Yes, The Badger defense is very solid but this Michigan offense is talented, squared. Last yr Michigan was -3 @ Wisky and HART DID NOT PLAY. Th eonly player Wisky returns on offense from that game is Stocco.

Look at what Wisky did vs West Illinois at home ..34 points but only 20 afetr 3 quarters. Pat Hill Jr 3 nice TD's but 22carries for 110 yds isnt impressive by college standards. When at BG they had 300 yards on offense and at one point led by just 7 in the third Q.

Result : Mich wins by 14 and I hit the middle , plus Wisky scored 13 pts (+6.x)

Purdue +3 -110(3x)

What has Minnesota done this year? Oh what they always do schedule easy opponents and blew them the Fuck out! How is it that at home last year Minny is only -3 now they are laying 3 on the road? Doesnt make sense to me...is blwoing Temple and Kent St out 106-0 that impressive. Purdue always sems to have a QB who can sling it and as far as I am concerned we saw Minnys defense @ CAL...there real defense. Simply fading Minny as road chalk even with defensive issues with Purdue. Thinking about the over now that I see 61.5 but isnt it so obvious?

Result : Purdue wins 27-21 (+3.x)

Under 54.5 -105 Louisville & Kansas St (4x) & Under 19.5 -108 Kansas St (2.5x)

I for one have been impressed by the Louisville defense and w/o reciting the Kansas St schedule they have done very little on offense versus inferior teams. Hoping that with a backup QB and RB who we know are uber-talents they decide to play it a little safe let the running game dictate pace and lean on the defense some. Big believer in the tremendous difference bewteen home and away. Cantwell looked great but I need to see how he handles a hostile enviroment.

Result: Lville wins 24-6 (+6.5x)

Buffalo +42.5 -105 (2x)

Really played this thinking it will be hard for Buffalo to score but if they get 1 TD they probably cover. We have a total of 49.5 so while its likely Buffalo is in the 0-3 pt range here I think they have improved as the season plays on. Auburn has no reason to show up here off the LSU game with Bama on deck and Irons hurt. Now just remember the 3rd back at Auburn atone time was Brandon Jacobs...he might have been 4th actually. Could see 38-0 here...38-3 , 42-3

Result : Auburn 38-3 (+2.x)

BYU -17 -105 1st Half (2x)

After last week I am so unimpressed with Utah State....back to back shutouts an 7pts scord this season in 3 games. It looks like John Beck is OUT and Jason Beck will QB. The fact he is a senor with game experence definetly soothes some concern here.

Result : BYU led 24-0 and won 38-0 (+2.x)

Penn State +17 -110 (3x)

I think this is a reflection of a few things. First the overwhelming win @ Texas, the underwhelming Nittany Lion performance @ ND, and the talk about payback. Penn State got hit by a buzzsaw in ND but last I check I thought there defense was still solid and they have kept the Ohio State offense in check.Morrelli hopefully is now more comfortable in an insane enviroment. Last year Ohio State was 3 pt favs @ Penn State and lost....so how do we justify 16 or 17 here? Penn State will be be prepared this time. How bout thefact Miami Ohio was 17 in week 1 and Cincy 29....Penn State is alot beter the 12 pts when being compared to Cincy.....line is double the ND line......just a high inflated line IMO.

Result : Ohio State 28-6 (-3.30x)cant explain the pain! Penn State was the right call and Ohio St is overrated!

Over 54 -108 West Virginia (3x)

They just seem to be clicking on all cylinders and east Carolina can or should able to score on them.

Result : WVU wins 27-10(-3.24x) Bad choice I knew ECU could limit them

Under 21.5 -108 Stanford team total (3x)

Walks on a WR will hurt you everytime.......

Result : Stanford loses 36-10 (+3.x)

Miss St +10 -110 (2x)

Tulane did a great job of throwing on State but not sure UAB can follow suit. Omar Conner got it together late and looking for that carry overe here.

Result : MissSt wins 16-10 in OT (+2.x)

South Carolina -17-105 1st Half (2x)

Well FAU cant stop anyone and hasnt been able to score. South carolina has Newton back @ QB and needs to put a whipping on someone after letting Wofford crawl back into it last week.

Result: SC leads 28-6 @ half (+2.x)

Houston ML -118 (3x)

I tend to have arule regarding small favs. Basically if the small number goes down on am I on the fav if it holds I take the dog.

Here I see Ok State still very unproven on the road on defense and with inconsistent QB play from Reid. Houston played liek shit in the opener but this mid size program doesnt host many games like this. Factor in the smooth senior QB Kolb and a defense that gained a ton of experience last season. All the small edges go to Houston here...looking at the over 56.5 as well....have to recheck those HO OL injuries though. Dont forget this HOU team had high expectations last year and underacheived...big chalk games athome and played in a Bowl.

Result : Houston wins 34 -25 (+3.x)

Washington +3.5 -110 (3x)ML +140(1x)

Like the fact the Huskies are home after a big home win vs Fresno. Confidence is up and there is probably a positive buzz around the campus . Now UCLA benefits from a bye week but there was goingto be some tranistion this season with all the turnover on offense and to me they havent looked so good to date. Now a conference road test and they are favored. Wash took them to the buzzer last year @ UCLA and they are on the rise IMO and able to build from that experience.

Result: Wash wins 29-19 (+4.4x)

North Carolina State +7 -110 (2x)

Think BC is walking a fine line....3 close wins and 2 in OT at home....they cant continue to get the bounces so to speak...outplayed IMO by both Clemson and BYU. NCST doesnt have much on offense but the QB switch could ignite it...could....what I am relying on here is the defense to set the tone and Wolfpack always suck as fav and do whatever little damage as a dog....

Result : NCST wins 17-15 (+2.x)

San Diego State +10-120 (2x)

While the Atzecs have QB issues I dont see why Utah is such a big fave here. WHat have they done? I expect State to build on the defensive performance at Wisky here.

Result : Lost 38-7 (-2.4x)

Hawaii +14.5 -109 (4x) & Over 24 +100 Hawaii (2x) & ML +470(.75x)

I think Hawaii has proved two things to me. First with how they traveled to Bama . They fell behind but covered anyway. They kept Darby in check and displayed a sound defense while still throwing on a good Bama D. Problem was teh inability to mix in the run. The second was how they played against Boise last year. True it was on the mainland but they were also fairly young and inxperienced...now there all grown up. Boise didnt look impressive @ Wyoming and after falling asleep vs Oregon State they woke up and scored like 7 unanswered TD's. Problem is that was due to teh run game and I dont see Ian Johnson doing that here. Zabransky was one of the cockiest QB's I had ever seen but has really regressed since the beginning of last year...check his Ore St stats....Noise St is overrated and the Smurf Turf is never a place to fade exept here I think we the ideal situation...one under the radar program versus one living off past glory.

Result: Boise St 41-34 (+5.25x)

over 59 -102 Notre Dame & Michigan St(2x)

Seems easy which is never a good sign. We know of ND's offensive firepower but there defense is very average and Statnton will move the ball against it. Now Mich Sta defense suprised me a bit @ Pitt but ND will be ready after that brutal loss.....seeing a 30-30 something game similiar to last years 44-41 game.

Result : 40-37 (+2.x)

Added-

Arkansas -1.5 -110 (4x)

Basically havent liked what I have seen from the Bama offense even considering what they did vs Monroe. darby has had trouble running due to the inconsistent passing game. Two things that I look at were first the unranked home fav vs the ranked road team...its tells you ranking mean nothing and always a good fade situation. The second is common opponent...Vandy. Arkansas's you ng QB wen there a 6 point favs and threw Tds while Bama at home laying -14.5 scored 13. Bama broke away late in the Monroe game scoring 3 Tds( half tehre points) in the final 16 minutes of the game. Now Vandy is better then most expected and both lines were somewhat inflated but it seems to me this teams are of equal strength(power rating wise/spread wise)...so with home field Arkansas should probably be at least 3 or 3 1/2.

Result- ARK wins 24-23 Oh the pain! Somewhat fucked myself ..missed the NL @ -133 and could have bought it -1.(-4.40)

Mid Tenn State +28.5 -105 (2x)

Result : OU wins 56-0 (-2.1x) Now thats how u lose!

Iowa State +24.5 +104 (2x)

Texas can clearly put a whopping on anyone but this is an interesting test IMO. Texas creamed two bad teams and was creamed by Ohio State in the 'REMATCH'. This ame will tell us alot about Texas and how they will lean on there QB from here on it. Iowa State has suprised me this year with there retooled defense but Brett Myer remains consistent. Just thinkingteh point wont come as easy and quick for the Longhorns here and Iowa State can do somethings on offense.

Result : texas wins 37-14 (+2.x) got lucky here somewhat was 17-14 once

Eastern Michigan +4.5 -105 (2x)

The Chippewas off a nice home win playing a revenge game. I just dont see the clear seperation bewteen these programs to be laying such big chalk. EMU actually played defense vs a struggling Northwestern program. CMU jumped on Akron and had to hold on. CMU has definetly played the tougher schedule but not sure they are good enough on defense to lay road chalk. EMU has been troubled trying to STOP the run but CMU hasnt run it that well yet.

Result : CMU wins 24-17 in OT! Painful!

Under 17.5 -116 Miami-Ohio team total (1x)

Inconsistent offense vs a defensive minded coach / school

Result: score 14 (+1.x)

Under 30.5 -108 Ohio State team total(1x)

Overlooking the Buckeye inconsistency 's on offense and underrating this Penn State defense due to the ND game

Result Ohio State scores 28 and ZERO @ HALF! Overrated!!(+1.x)

TEASER-

Tenny -11 . Nebraska -13.5 , Cal +1.5 (4x)

Result- All 3 blowouts! (+3.x) remember -1 hedged

Adding a Parlay

Under 61 Hawaii , Over 56 Houston and Over 49 LSU(1x)Loss

All in all a very solid day. If I had playe dteh same sizes as last week would have been a monster day. Hopefully we ae back to even in CFB and maybe small posted profits.

Tuesday Thoughts-

Quick glimpse as to me what I am looking at:

ATL -130 & Over 9 +102

Over 10 +107 Philly

Fla -124

Reds +121

Brewers -128

SFG -117 & Und 9 +106

Red Sox -116 & Over 10-103

Blue jays +115

DRays +113 & Over 10+103

WSox -115

Rangers -116 & Under 10.5 -109

Under 10 -104 KC


Plays-

7:05 PM

Braves -132 (3units) & Over 9 +107 (3units) ADD Over 9 -120 (2units)

Basically Chuck James has pitched extremely well this year and is facing a Double A SP who probably doesnt have the arm strength to last more then 5 innings and being it could be less you could get one of the more RAW youngsters in the pen. Wash also does hit very well against LHP with all starters above .277(Logan 2 /8). So while James is tough I expect Wash to score a few off him and Nats tend to play Over vs lefties. ATL pen is shaky... Wegner behind teh plate has skewed numbers...less then 9 runs per but more overs. Looks like for whatever reason the pens pitch extremely well in his games.

Over 10 +113 Philly & ChiC (4units)

Moyer has been solid but is basically a 3 run , 6 inning type. Miller looked good last time out but I felt he faced a disinterested LAD squad. Being that his velocity has not come back he could be in trouble against the tough LHB's....neither PEN is trustworthy its either feast or famine.

Marlins -127 (4units)

Think NY is something like 6-14 vs LH since the Nady trade and dropped 6 of 7. After clinching the pennant you would think they partied like it was 1999.. Corny line but true as even RAndolph said it should take a few days to ware off. Olsen was robbed off awin last outing vs NY when the pen couldnt seal the game.hate the price but under the circumstances worth it.

Red Sox -116 (5units) & Over 10 -117 (3units)

I thought Boston played well in NYY taking 3 of 4 and feel they are rejuvenated now. A youngster albeittalented youngster Garza trying to tackle Fenway should be higher priced IMO.
Wake trying to get his feel back is usually sharpest @ Fenway.

Blue Jays +116 (4units)

Fading my Yanks again. Two reasons Marcum is solid at home and Karstens has been decent but I feel very hittable to be road chalk. Also I cited fatigue yesterday as a reason behind my play but sometimes it takes a day after to hit the players..adrenaline run. Anyway ARod commented he has never seen NY so tired but they do have depth that we cant overlook.

TB +113 (4units) & Over 10 +111(3units)

Expecting a high scoring affair as tB hits lefties fairly well and Loewen is inconsistent on the road and struggles to get past the 6th inning which I do NOT trust the O's pen. Hammel has been okat home since his debut and I am thinking this price is off with TB being a 500 home team and O's struggling mightily away.

At 8 Pm

Brewers -128 (6units)

Sheet shas missed time with injuries so this is techincally his midseason and he looks like he is midseason form lately. Huge edge in SP against eff Weaver who is inconsistent......Both teams slumping with the bat but Brew Crew has the edge in pitching.

Under 9 +108 SF & Colorado (3units)

Cain has been insane inethe 2nd Halfand really shutdown Colorado last 2 outings. Hopefully the twenty spot last nite got alot of the hits out of those bats. Jennings is medicore career wise against SF but has been extremely soldi at home..Really like Cain but passing as Col is hot at home.

Reds -107 (4units)

had this @ +121 as my play of the day. LAst tim eteher was a last minute scratch I stayed away and regretted it. SO hopefully that doesnt happen in here in reverse. I see improvement in Harang latelty and his 2.96 road era tells us he enjoys the road. Pettitte was hurting IMO and been hit hard by Cincy this year but he was scratched for the youngster who had a solid relief outing vs Cincy earlier. I think teh key was he was down big and pitching without pressure. He made a start after that and was hit fairly hard

Rangers -115 (3units) & Under 10.5 -106 (3units)

Seattle struggles in Texas and Washburn has been roughed up this year on teh road. He does have good numbers vs texas though therefore the under. Volquez is tough to figure but his best outing was vs Seattle... so hopefully his last outing was a building block thanks to extra pen and side work...

White Sox -115 (4units)

Garcia obviously looked real good last time out and has had great success vs DET in his career( think won 9 of past 10 outings vs them). Verlander has struggled in his first few outings vs CHI but turned it around last time out againstthem. However he has been inconsistent down the stretch and that has me questioning....fatigue?

Two leans I passed on were SFG and Under 10 KC.

GL- Sorry if any comments were late as this site was down for 15 minutes

Monday MLB Thoughts & NFL

Well the past 2 days I have put minimal effort into capping baseball since I was overly focused on the football slates. Well that minimal effort turned out to be very solid as both days were slightly better then+10 units while the football days were my worst ever in the -30 unit range each day. What I learned this weekend is dont let to much shit get into your head. What I mean is I went against what I knew and sided with situational angles that seemed to be backed fading the public sentiment( which works in all forms of life). Which I know for sure sites that track this stuff give out WRONG INFO. I watched on sportsinsights.com the money flow before the game....and I know who was being bet...it was clearly Oakland ( 13 to 12.5 ), somewhat bias to Cleveland( Clev vig was negative) , The Lions heavy( remember I said Pinnacle sportsbook was taking sides and begging you to play DET @ +9 -131!!) , Texans fell to 11.5...Now I admit this curious since early it had alreday dropped to 13 then went 13 to 11.5 on Sunday. I cant say for sure if Hou was being taken Or the books simply moved it down tomake you think something was up and they do this! , Miami was heavily bet till the last seconds when someone hit Buffalo and the Under hard. I know cause within seconds the Miami total went from 37 U -108 to 37 U -119 and Miami started at 6 and hit 7 before a last sec drop to 6.5 ! The public was on NYG , Minny and KC so they got those , but was on STL in the afternoon , also GB went from +2 to +1 more importantly the ML finished at GB -108 from +113 on Sat nite , they were clearly on TB taking that down to 4.5 and just like Cle a small bias towards Tenny. So the public got smoked IMO.......oh yeah the public was on the jets as well

My point is I let many outside influences sway my decisions and thats MY FAULT! Back to the basics! I got greedy and paid with the profits I built up here! New day.....

MLB

ChiC @ Philly

Right now this is to high priced for me. The Cubbies have suddenly woken up last 2 but Marshall hast been very sharp in his 3 return outings. Not to mention Cubs 1-9 L 10 away. My belief is if you are laying HEAVY CHALK you should expect a domianting pitcher performance. right now I cant for sure w/o doubt taht I would expect Leiber to limit Chi to 3 runs or less over 9 innings.

Atl @ Wash

I have read somewhere about Armas lack of success against ATL. Which is obviously true but lets not forget that for years ATL was head and shoulders ABOVE Washington. Now the last 2 seasons and especially 2006 there isnt a significant gap bewteen the two. I say this cause Armas has 2 strong starts vs ATL this yr without allowing a run and was sharp in 3 of 4 vs them since 2005. So who cares that Armas is something like 0-9 at home vs ATL recently...its misleading cause the last 2 at home have been very solid ! Davies has been Bad since his DL return and I believe those were at home. Now he travels and historically that hasnt been good....all young SP usally have tremendous DIFFERENCE's inhome /away splits. One tyhing that concerns me about Armas is his recent lack of strikeouts....6 straight starts with2 or less. Pitchers tend to struggle when they cant K batters not matter how hard they throw. Thats why Chein Ming Wang is a FREAK of nature. He doesnt K anyone but throws a 95 MPH sinker!! Think Kevin Brown and Scott Erickson in there prime but better. Armas has only 1 bad 2nd H start at home allowing 11 earned in 29 /2/3 innings since teh break. However his last 6 starts have seen 25 2/3 Inn and 39 H 27 runs / 22earned . So thinking WASh but also over cause Armas recent struggles and Davies poor performsnces since returning from the DL.

Fla @ NYM

Neither SP pitching well but I like Traschel(19-9 when he starts) pitching for his spot in the rotation on extended rest. The NY offense was sleeping in Pitt but they faced LHP which is there achilles heel. moeheler is returning from a long DL stintand shown that he is a 5 innning SP right now. The Marlin pen is poison! Beautiful day here in NY so the over but me worth a luck since Traschel tends to get tremendous run support...only I am not a big fan of 9.5 totals at Shea.

StL @ Milw

Real simple here....Capuano despite dropping something like 8 of past 10 starts is usally a play for me at home. StL all season hasnt shown much against LHP 0-7 2nd H away vs LHP and the names arent studs........generally struggled away think 6-18 L 24 after starting 5-1 (loss to Francis) first 2 series after break. Reyes has been inconsistent and ahsnt pitched deep into games on the road plus MILW's bigbats Jenkins and Fielder are LHP.....still thinking U 8.5 though!

Houston / Cincy

Not sold yet but Oswalt at -218 vs the Reds looks enticing. First he is strongest in AUG & SEPT and facing the opponent he has had the most success against combined with a huge offensive slump by Cincy lately. Lohse is on the hill but after a great fresh start in Cincy teh clock might have struck midnite...Remember I look for strong SP performances when I lay big chalk....think I get iy here.

SFG @ Col

Well I am not sure of Lowry's health as he hasnt looked sharp lately...Coors isnt the place to be in that situation. Suddenly Coors is back to the over park again. SF has struggled against LHP and while Hampson is unknown he had decent AAA numbers and is LH. For that reason I am thinking COL here...obvious choice is SF needs to win but should they be favored away against a LHP even a rookie with an injured SP??? If we see 10 definite over play but considering 10.5

SD @ LAD

We have a line move here and I think its correct. This was a bad line when OPENED it should have been IMO PK -104. With SD dominace in the series and Peavy better numbers recently vs his opponent you would probably lean SD. So I do think this coudl be a sharp play on SD as the line was bad. Anything close to a PK -104 situatin and I will probably ride SD but I am liking the under 7.5 especaiily if we see 8.

NYY@ Tor

Rasner looks solid to date butthe inconsistent innings is always a concern. Ny in a terrific fade spot here after back to back DH's vs Boston and a night home game then flying to Tor. That has to be tough 148 games into the season..Burnett looking like himself lately and I think power pitchers tend to give our lineup trouble. We didnt hit much on the weekend...thinking Under 10 and hoping Tor drops so I can play them

Balt @ TB

First Balt has struggled on the road but they have there ace on the hill. At first it seemed like a big price to pay fro Bedard after all he was just -172 at home a few weeks back vs TB(against Hammel who is probably a notch below Corcoran). So I was thinking the should have been -135 to -140 range since TB sucks away and is decent at home. Then I see Corcoran ahs dropped 9 straight starts mostly cause of poor run support but he was blasted vs NYY..1/3 inn and 7 runs. He had gone under in 7 of 8 so he wasnt pitching that poorly. With TB you have to thrw out there road record as its 2-26 since the break. At home thinks it 16-16 and 4-5 last homestand with the younger lineup. Both these pens have stunk lately...Tough choice but Balt might be the right price now as its down to -140 but I cant take an under here unless the big gets cheaper. ould take the over 9 if that happened.

Seattle @ texas

With Felix he has struggled @ Arlington and the ranger bats have woken up past 2 games. Young King Felix hasnt pitched since last weekend against Texas in which teh Rangers avoided the sweep and won 4-2.Have to do more research into this price cause it seems a little high but I like Millwood and Texas here.....I think over time its a bad decision to play inflated favs. Not usre tahts the case here and why I need to research more.

Det @ Chi W

Really not touching a side as its a coin flip( was thinking DET). Do like teh under here as Kenny Rogers has 4 solid starts against CHI and Buerhle has been decent vs DET. Both lineuos do not hit al that well against LHP and have strong UNDER biased against LHP. So watching this 9.5 under vig closely before I jump in.

Cle @ Oak

With Westbrook generally pitching well away recently I like Cle here. More cause of the price. Haren had a great last start but was so-so before that. he is extremely tough at home though but not sure the price is accurate. Still thinking under but so-so strength

Thats my thoughst as of now be back around 6 to finalize my play list!

MLB Plays

Nationals -116 (4units)
Over 9.5 Was +103 (2units)

Brewers -111 (6units) Now +100 (2 units) more
Under 8.5 -103 (2units)

Astros -220 (3units)

Rockies -107 (3units)
Over 10.5 +103 SFG (3units)

Under 7.5 -102 LAD (2units)

BJays -125 (4units) - hate that fading NYY!
Under 10 +107 (2units)

Orioles -139 (2units)

Under 9.5 -115 DET (5units) now -112 (2units ) More

Rangers -132 (3units)
Over 9.5 +104 (3units)

Still looking at Oak and Cle.

Parlay +186 Cubs , Mets -173 , Hou -234

MLB Add-

SD -104 (3units) Remember this is the fair price in my opinion and we drifted lower as the nit eprogressed.

small parlay Indians +143 / Und 9 -108


NFL taking Pitt a matter of where and how much..fairly big though. GL

NFL

Steelers -2.5 -105 (7units)

Under 37.5 -125 (3units)

The scary part of the Steeler side for me is Big Ben's health anbd crispness having played just 4 series in the preseason. Thats why I tend to think Under here. Also not sure what Jax can do offesnively versus this Pitt squad...running will be tough can they throw on Pitt with such young WR's vs good corners?? Plus jax has some injuries on defense Hyaward OUT and Spicer <>

Sunday Thoughts

1PM

Over 9.5 +100 ATL/ FLA(4units)

strong over day splits, Huddy struggling and Nolasco off injury bad day splits.

Mets -128 (4units)

Jays -201 (3units)
fade TB away and no Crawford.

Under 10 -113 Minny (2units)

The rest--

Under 10 KC -102 (3units)

Rangers -120 (3units) & Over 10 +103 93units)

A's +106 (4units) & Under 9.5 -119 (2units)

Arizona -105 (2units)

SFG +116 (2units) & Over 9.5 +109(3units)

Over 10 -108 Cubs (3units)

Padres +130 (4units ) & Over 8 -105 (3units)