Saturday 's Thoughts

First things first a very solid Friday considering at the beginning of the day there wasnt much catching my eye. Hard work pays off!!

How bout MY Yankees.....never ever expected a DH sweep!

Cubbies -125(strong)

The Cubs as I mentioned on Friday have for whatever reason played extremely well against Chi this season . Before Friday's loss they had swept a 3 and 4 game set @ Wrigley this year. Now the have there ace on the hill who has defeated StL 4 consecutive starts in Wrigley and 5 of 6 . On the flip you have Suppan who has pitched some solid road games recently but ultimately ahs a 7.16 ROAD ERA And WHip approaching 1.90!!!! StL still must continue to prove to me they are going to be a consistent offense.


Under 5.5 -106(now -113) First 5 Innings NYY and Boston (also Under 10 NY +106) (strong)


Seems that over nite many people had teh same idea as me taking the Over 10 to a higher prcie while driving the under 5.5 First 5 to a higher price!!

Lets be honest here these teams HAVE to be SLUGGISH after this horrific DH! They just set a ML record for how long the game lasted!!! These guys will be flat and they only have to face Randy Johnson and Josh Beckett....no big deal, right?? Beckett's transition to the AL hasnt be smooth but he has been sharp in his day starts and guess what 1 PM start!!! RJ has been fairly solid recently the problem is he when he is OFF he is AWFUL. Boston has struggled some vs LHP this year and RJ hasnt been to bad vs them in his NYY career. I expect both lineups to be flat , all scored out and see 2 strong pitching performances. Now I prefer the 1st 5 Inning play oinstead of the Under 10 game total only cause of the TAXED pens(still will playit small).

Orioles -116 (strong)

Well I am disappointed in my decisions to pass on the Orioles and Braves today so hopefully this isnt some subconcious makeup call. Cabrera is always much better at Camden and IMO has had some success against the Jays in his career including this year. Marcum has failed to show me he is prepared to pitch in an opposing stadium and even so at this point he is just a 6 inning guy at BEST!

Pirates +125 and ARL +192(medium)

Malhom has turned the corner past 10 starts or so and has a good track record versus the Reds. Milton is basically in the same boat but in this situation I prefer to ride the dog.... basically a coin flip. Think this si and under but staying off

Under 8.5 -111 SD and Arizona (alsolike First 5 Innings here)

Hensley and VArgas both have had limited success against the opposing squads and I think both SP prefer these situations....VArgas on the road and Hensley at Petco. Sd has been sluggish offensively and I think its worth a shot although a minor one.

Also looking at NYY , Arizona , Over Toronto and BAlt in the Day. At nite still work to do with Minny , SFG and Colorado coming to mind!

NFL Preseason

Packers -3 +105 or ML -145(medium to strong)

One of those games like the Browns tonite where being home is an edge that goes unnoticed. GB has something to prove IMO and like CHI did tonite I think its the Cheeseheads turn.

Again much time and work to do! Good Luck

Friday's Thoughts

Well looking back it appears to be a successful Thursday, how bout those New York 'FOOTBALL' Giants.....17-0 maybe it was just that easy afterall/

Well my Yankees have a doubleheader in Boston today and it has me worried. Looking at Wang he has had a tremendous amount of succes at that Stadium but that really hasnt translated into consistency away from home. Looking back in 12 road starts he had only 3 real good starts to speak of: back in April when the Twins stunk he pitched very well there , then he pitched that great game in Washington but lost on Zimmerman's walkoff HR and lastily recently he pitched a gem down in TB. Otherwise the Yanks have dropped 7 of his 12 road starts and he hasnt won at Fenway yet in 3 starts. The kid is 9-2 2.97 (1.13 WHIP) @ Yankee Stadium but 4-3 in 12 road starts with a 5.16 ERA and 1.60 (yikes) WHIP! Thanks to great run support (nearly 7 per) he has won 7 of his 9 day starts but his ERA is 4.47 compared to 3.54 @ nite. Then his last 2 starts are of the 5 inning variety and he has allowed 9 runs in 10 .1 innings but 20 HITS!

Then Jason Johnson......could he pitch any worse in 2006??? The numbers are so bad they shouldnt even be spoken outloud!! Then he is 2-9 (2-12 when he starts) in his career versus NYY!!! The sad part are the numbers are respectable versus them 4.29 ERA and .271 BAA!! This season I have to cover my eyes when I look at his season 3-11(5-13 when he starts) , 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. FEnway has never been good to him either.

While I am seriously concerned about my NYY here I think its better to just sit back and watch here. It's amatter of 2 SP who might not be around long today and aprice , well a price that says please take the money and play Boston cause the NYY are absurdly high @ Fenway IMO.

Over 6 -117 First 5 Innings (small)

Cubs +105 (small)
This is one of those things in my head . You look and see Chicago is seven for seven at home versus SL this year and 10-3 overall. Huge rivalary and Marquis has been abused over his past 3 starts failing to get run support and failing to stop anyone from scoring(outscored 25-4 L3). Marquis has struggled all season versus Chicago and failed to win @ Wrigley in limited starts. To Maquis credit is he has been solid in day starts 6-3 3.88ERA this yr. For Marmol he has managed to pitch fairly well outside of one horrific 1st inning versus Zona in his last home start... 4runs in 6 , 1 run in 6 and 1 run in 6 1/3 innings and 3 runs (2earned) vs StL then the 7 spot in 5 innings against Zona. Edmonds will probably be once again on the pine. With thatthey are very limited offensively Pujols , Rolen , Duncan and ???

Marquis is 1-5 with a 6.18 ERA in 7 2nd Half starts. This yr versus ChiC
14.2 INN 23 hits 18runs 12ER 3Hr 8BB 8K 7.36ERA 2.11WHIP .359BAA . At Wrigley only 3 starts all losses though, spanning 15 innings , 22hits , 12 runs (9er)!! The real key here is Marquis best numbers seem to be when he starts under the sun....my biggest concern right now!

NFL Preseason
Bills -3.5 -104(try to play it at -3 though) (medium to strong)

To me the preseason is mainly about competiton and depth. Well Buffalo has a nice QB competition going and Cincy has journeyman Doug Johnson and Anthony Wright at the helm....


Lackluster start guess I should have just went with the game total in Boston and yes they were begging for Boston money!



Night time:

Really cant chat much about these as I short on time:

Giants -118 (medium)

Rangers -104 (medium)

Schidmt has four solid starts vs LAD this year but has yet to record a win or lead his team to a win . Penny is no slouch but that also gets you a cheaper price.

Millwood has been excellent on the road and DET barely escaped with a win yesterday thanks to Zumaya.

(small to medium)

Pirates +113 or First 5 Innings +112

Snell like Millwood has been excellent away this year and Cincy's bats are struggling. They face a LHP and that is scary (7-32) but Michalak has alot to prove, the journeyman cant rest on one solid start versus a predominantly LH lineup. If the pirates pen which blew 2 wins in MILW scares ya start with the First 5 Innings.

Red Sox -127

Lester has shown the ability to pitch out of a jams and Ponson hasnt shown much of anything as a Yankee. Certainly he doesnt pitch well in Boston or versus the Sox in his career.

Under 9 -123 Colorado and NYM(only at 9)

Both Traschel and Kim pitching fairly well past few starts and these teams have dependable pens.

Brewers -104

Ohka has had his troubles but neither Backe or the Astros should be a PKem to a divisional rival on the road imo.

This will have started already but also liked game #1 in KC the UNder 10 runs.

(Real small)

Three sides:

Indians -1.5 runs -102

Royals +145

Mets -1.5 runs +153


Over 6 First 5 Innings Boston -117

Under 10 -112 Pitt

Under 9 +101 Milwuakee


NFL
Bills -3.5 -112 (strong)

Browns -3 +102 (medium)

Bears -4 -110 (small)


Be cautious do your due diligence cause I was real short on time and even I know I must have taken short cuts!!

Thursday Thoughts ( Lots of Day starts)

Well hopefully if you read my Wed post you saw that I was heavy on 3 games Boston , Over Fla and Texas all which won and both sides won on the Run Lines as well. The rest of the plays were so-so but some nice dogs who all hit on the ARL in Cincy , SF and Arizona for great payouts. The totals suffered on the smaller plays

It's a new day with more work ahead:

Under 10.5 NYY and Baltimore +110 (@ pinnacle sports) (medium strength)

Okay we have two back end of the rotation type SP going today but still two arms who are pitching well of late. Wright has managed to lead NY to wins in all of his last 3 starts and Rodrigo has done so in 2 of 3 for Baltimore. We all know Jaret Wright will only be given the chance to 6 innings so his last 3 starts span only 16 and 1/3 innings. In which he allowed only 3 runs ( 1 each start) to Tor , Balt and LAA. Wright has been solid in Day starts going 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA and seeing 5 unders and a push in those games. At home despite a 4.68 ERA he has an 7-2-1 UNDER mark most likely due to his ability to pitch out of jams , get grounders and keep the ball in the park. In two '06 starts against BALT he has lasted 12 innings( 6 both times) and allowed 4 runs (3 earned).

NowLopez has really struggled on the road and that is a major concern here 2-6 7.22 ERA. His last 3 starts have seen him spin 20 + innings and allow 7 runs (3.10 ERA) with a 17K to 2 BB ratio. He pitched fairly well verus NYY recently but they made him pay for his mistakes crushing 4 SOLO Hr's. Now he also had a long relief outing vs Boston that was decent 3 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings. Now most times I wouldnt say decent for that line but in this situation if Lopez went 5 Innings and allowed 3 runs or 6 inn and allowed 4 runs I would be very happy. Despite his road struggles he is 6 -3 UNDER on the road. Also his last 5 outings in NY have been either excellent or bombings....3 starts allowing 4 runs in 22++ innings or the other two allowing 18 runs (13 earned ) in 7++ innings...HIT or MISS for him.

There are alot of UNDER trends for the squads backing this up plus Balt's inability to score runs versus NYY lately. The NYY pen continues to improve as we have been pitching well and now added Dotel to the mix( could be a bad thing though) and Balts pen is inconsistent . O's are 8- 3 UNDER in August , NYY is 11-3 UNDER in AUG and 11-4 in the 2nd Half versus teams with losing records , NYY is 36-24 UNDER at the STADIUM , and both SP have seen unders in there past 3 starts. O's 10-4 Under last 14 day games and 19-7 UNDER for NYY last 26 @ Home. Bucknor is calling ball and strikes and while many might disagree with me I think he is a neutral UMP. In regard to overs and unders. He has seemed to had mostly games with totals above 9 runs which I think has more to do with his 10 + run average.

Mets -116 and RL +137 (medium strength)

Lets not breakout the BULLSHIT for this one. For a logical standpoint you never want to drop 4 games to a divisonal rival no matter how many games up you are on them. Simply put cause you dont want to let them build any momentum. Maine and Mathieson already sqaured off with NY winning 8-1. I HATE return engagements where the same SP square off again in a short period of time. Due to teh situation though I will ride it. Maine has been terrific of late and well MAthieson has lost 5 of his 6 starts. The biggest knock I can make on Maine is his most of his starts where at home so somewhat untested when he travels and Mathieson for his rough numbers he has 2 solid outing sat home in three games. NY is 21- 6 there last 27 daygames (philly 9-3 past 12 day)and I believe only lost 4 or more consecutive games on 1 occassion this year. Want to say UNDER in this one but it seems that there is some heavy fow that way and a high vig -121 for the U 10 runs.....

Twinkies -106 (RL +178 for a little value) (somewhat lesser then the first two )
UNDER 10 +103

Really not much to go on here. Garza is a STUD rookie SP making his second ML start. It has been reported that the kid was visibly nervous and shaken before his first ML start. So hopefully the jitters are now gne and we get a glimpse of hwat he can do. Cleveland is on a 10-2 Under daystreak and Minny has dropped 8 straight unders. Cousins has had 6 totals of 10 or higher and 5 went Under so small play on the UNder 10 +103 as well.

Byrd has great day numbers but the sun dont shine in a DOME. However he has been fairly strong in his career in the Metrodome but has lost 2 of his last 3 starst there including a July meeting. I expect a decent outing again from Byrd but the Tribe pen is shaky right now. I think Garza puts in a real strong performance and 10 Runs at the DOME is high.

1 PM starts:
Under 10.5 NYY
NYM -116 (and RL for value)
Twins -106 (and some RL for value)
Under 10 +103 Minny

all medium plays....



Well a so-so start to the afternoon and now time is short. In the same realm of strength as the Twinkies plays:


Colorado +124
Over 9 +105


There is a 3:30 start as well in SD which I find tough. Peavy is looking for revenge here and is starting to resemble the Jake Peavy we all expected. However in 2006 he has failed to pitch well at PETCO and has been a disaster in day starts. Cain has been solid versus SD in his short career but has seen some bad days when he pitches on the road. Real low total thanks to the sluggish offenses and the respect peavy gets. I owuld say that Over 7.5 +101 is a real small ( marginal ) play if you are looking for something. The home plate Ump Jim Joyce is fairly thight and sees about 10 runs per start....SF also has an up and down Bullpen to aid this. Lets see what happens.

Part II : Night Edition

Rangers +126 (small to medium type- same as Colorado and Twins plays) ARL @ +190 for some value

Okay this is a stretch but I feel that in many ways the house wants your money on DET. First the Tigers were struggling dropping 5 straight before a well played series @ Fenway where they won 2 of 3. Now hey come home and have Kenny Rogers on the hill versus somehwhat unknown but certainly unproven Edison Volquez. Who was okay his 1st start but solid his second outing vs Seattle. Now with Polanco out and Volquez possible being something to look forward to this creates an interesting matchup. Texas has won 6 of 7 and is playing better on the road then at home. for as good as the 'Gambler' has been at home this season he is still only 4-1 meaning that his run support isnt very good(4.8 per). Texas has crushed LHP last few games see Saunders and Zito .....

Take a chance on the Rangers here....best team in baseball record wise laying 130 to -140 at home....??? Think about it. Rogers has gone 6 or more just three times in his past 9 starts and has a 5.30 ERA at nite

Under 8.5 -119 Toronto and TB( also like Und 4.5 -108 1st 5 Innings) (small)

Just thinking that the past outings for both show these two could be about to go on a run. Despite hitting LHP fairly well the Jays havent had success against Kazmir who sports a 2.10 ERA @ Trop this season. Burnett has been inconsistent all year especially in road starts so be cautious. However he does sport real solid numbers vs TB in his career and has enjoyed solid outings at TROP in his career. Hopefully his last 7 inning outing is a sign AJ Burnett is finally healthy and ready to contribute consistently. Having Marvin Hudson behind teh dish seems to be a plus for the under as well. A undisciplined lineup like TB should IMO struggle versus the power of AJ with that sharp curve as well.

Mariners +163(small play)
The shot in the dark type play. Moyer should not be this big a dog here IMO. Escobar is inconsistent and with a medocore track record vs the Mariners. For whatever reason the road team has done extremely well this year in the series and Seattle before being swept at home had own the LAA 2006 squad. They had won 7 of 9 and 5 of 6 in LAA. Moyer pitches good enough to keep his team around when he travels to LA and was decent in his 4-0 loss at Safeco. Seattle cant continue to lose to divisional opponents at this rate unless they have quit...dont think they have....take a shot !


NFL Preseason

NY Giants -3 -110
Might seem to easy but I have to play this. KC severly lacks teh depth that NY has to offer IMO and that is teh main reason I like it. NY also getting some veterans in the mix while KC doesnt have much depth at QB , RB or WR IMO. Would really love to hammer this one but again seems to easy and that scares me....have to love QB competition!!!

Okay thats all for Thursday......IF I had to and I dont and wont I would guess Houston , Under 8.5 Houston and over 34.5 Ravens!

Here is todays overview:

Pirates -110

Over 8.5 -114 LAD(strongest of the two)

Astros -220 (small) after the Cubs hard fought win.

First despite repeated LOSSES with Pittsburgh when opposing a LH SP 7-31 after todays loss and the absence of Bay we have value IMO. Duke has managed to lead the Pirates to wins in 7 of his 10 starts at home this year despite some issues in day games. Duke was rocked last time out vs Milwaukee but had started his career with 4 extremely solid outings versus them and I look for another start...Gorzelanny did well today. Capuano has been ripped in consecutive outings versus Pitt and has not had much sucess pitching at there Home Park. He has been fairly inconsistent lately and is not throwing like he did earlier.

The Over in LA is tricky but a day game helps IMO. Also Everitt (UMP) is 18-7 OVER with an 11.68 RUN average(if I recall correctly) and troubling 300++ pitch outing average= TIGHT ZONE. Hendrickson is always putting the wood on the ball and allows many baserunners. So far his time in DodgerLand especially at home has seen some tough outings. With Josh Johnson he was rocked recently by LAD who is smoking RHP of late and JJ has some troubles getting LHB's out. He does sport a wonderful road and day ERA. Except you dont ever know what that pen will do as he should max out at 7 innings and is at the stage where you wonder how consistent he will be due to fatigue(alot more innings then he may be used to in August). You never know what FLA's pen will give you ...remember that.

Here is an unknown trend:

Marlins shutout 4 times in 2006 and responded with 8 runs , 9 runs twice and 11 runs..........HMMMMMMMM.

Strong Play IMO as people will center on the names of the SP to much here. Dont forget that LAD smoked JJ in FLA already and LHB are a concern for him.

Tonite:

Boston Red Sox -103 (HUGE Play) also -1.5 Run Line @ +186 has nice value

It's funny you look at the matchup and think Wells stinks lets go Verlander then research comes into play.

Wells was solid last time out and prior to that some poor defense lead to 4 unearned runs @ TB but only 1 ER in 6innings. A somewhat different team then the one he faced last year but still had a solid effort versus.

Verlander is coming off a few weeks in whiuch he had a so-so start then was pushed back due to fatigue then allowed his highest hittotal of theyear 13 in 5 innings and was 'mentioned' that he had to be tipping his pitchings (according to Leyland). So do we expect a youngster to correctthat immediately....we shouldnt . If thats not the case then how big is this fatigue factor?? Last 2 outings 10 Innings , 21 Hits allowed 8runs and 7 earned(6.30ERA). Also it does seem that LHP is giving DET some trouble.....consecutive 4-3 defeats to Buerhle and Santana. They did beat an now known to beinjured Liriano 9-3 after defeating Sabathia 1-0. Also prior to that they beat Cliff Lee 7-6 but Lee held them scoreless thru 5(pulled in the 7th) and watched the pen implode as DET scored 7 in innings 6 thru 8.

While some might think my LOGIC is lunacy the fact that Boston is OFF on Thursday with NYY coming in for 5 games (yes , 5 games!!) creates a must win situation here. Oh and I know the sweep factor is in effect with DET taking games 1 and 2!!


Some other thoughts for the Night slate:

Under 9.5 -122 Toronto and TB

There is some value IMO in the UNDER 9.5 in TB with Lilly opposing Shields. Shields appear to have regained his earlier form with some solid outings versus tough lineups. Lilly has 3 career starts in TB allowing 1 run in 18 innings and the Rays struggle vs LHP. Lilly was sharp in Minny this past weekend. The game has seen some strong UNDER money opening in some places at 10 and at 9.5 with heavy vig on the under we could see a 9 total. Wegner behind the dish is typically a low scoring UMP. TB is silumping with 3 runs or less in 6 straight , 4runs or less in 7 straight and 4runs o less in 8 of 10.

The Bad Blood Series: LAA @ Texas -112(also like the -1.5 Run Line@+169)

Only stat to focus on here is Texas hitting .310 this season vs LHP. Now Saunders has been impressive but the revenge matchup of him versus Eaton leads me to side with the first round loser. Eaton has pitched well this season outside of that outing where he was ejected rather early. The bad blood spilled over to tonite's game and look for the Rangers to get back on track after there streak ended with tonites 9-7 loss. Eaton has only 4 starts this year a start vs NY which started with 3 terrific innings before he tired in the fourth and two starts sandwiching his LAA episode in which he went 12 innings allowing 2 runs. For LAA Garett Anderson , MAcer Itzirus and Orlando Cabrera all listed as questionable.


Small play:
Over 8.5 -112 Oakland

Who knows what is up with Gil Meche who has fallen apart since the start at the (Yankee)Stadium. You dont want to be in a funk and have an OVER UMP behind the dish. Haren has been solid but I expect even the lowly Mariners to get 3 runs here. In saying this I am also making a case for Oakland -1.5 runs. Meche has allowed 48 runs in 67 1/3 road innings this year but Haren has pitched more then his share of low scoring home games

NL:

Muts -109 (-1.5 +141)

Did I say I liked the Muts on Tuesday?? Nah , I said I LUVED them well they must know I am NYYfan. I think Philly can be vulnerable to LHP and has shown that at times when Pat the BAT isnt stroking. Gimme Glavine to end the streak and put forward another solid effort vs Philly.

Have to entertain the UNDER 10 -107 here IMO Or 1st 5 Inning Under.

DBacks +105

We have to be impressed with Livan stringing together IMO 8 quality starts in 9 outings. He has pitched fairly decent at Coors recently and is an INNINGS eater (needed after 18 inning game). Cook himself can take his club deep but is 4-9 at Coors this year. With that in mind maybe a first 5 innings under is the PLAY as well.

OTHER NL thoughts

SFG -104

Lowry fairly solid recently and SD struggling against LHP(might be minus Piazza).

Reds +132

Edmonds could be out and a high price for a struggling youngster even if Arroyo is colder then Alaska.

Over 8.5 +111 Atlanta(makes sense to pay extra for 8 runs)
Smoltz is solid but tha pen is ??? lately. He has had some tough games at Wash recently. Traber is not to be trusted looks solid and then implodes.....there pen struggling as well. If you see 8 then jump on it.

Good Luck!