NBA Comments :
Toronto -2 : This MAY be a rare occassion when the books opened this line wrong. The Sixers have battled in every game losing two games they had chances to win. WHile Tor has been FLAT since the OT loss at home to Boston. Since then getting bombed in Milw then the next night vs ORL.
Why was this line wrong? First Philly was only -4 vs Char with Felton out and +2.5 vs NJN. Now Tor already beat Philly at home laying -7 and smoked NJ at Continental Airlines catching 3 points...basically we know Tor is better then Philly and even better then NJ at this point so you would expect the Tor line to be similiar to that of the NJ @ Philly game. Philly is strong on the glass with Evans , Iggy and Dalembert. A ket to watch is Philly getting 30 Fts per while Tor only allows 20. Philly shooting %s arent very good at the moment and TOR is an offensive FUNK. To me that translates into an UNDER 188. Tor 95-90 ??
Char -1.5 : Hard to back CHAR after 2 disgusting performances. However with Ike Diougu and Daniels OUT , O'Neal , Williams and Murphy working themselves into game shape the damaged Cats have the edge at home. Felton SHOULD play but I am not certain. If he does might have to get involved in O195.
Hawks +8.5 / UND 193 : Really like A-T-L here. . Is Boston now better then DET cause they smoked Den and Wash at home , two teams who DONT play any defense?? Enter the athletic A-T-L Squad. They battled both NJ and DET on the road . UPSET Dallas and PHO at home . Losing late but leading nearly the enter way @ DET. Looks like another 95-90 game.
NYK : Tough spot for ORL 4th straight away winning the 1st three and having PHO tmrw at home (4th in 5 days). Like NY here but not crazy about it.....interested to see how both teams look matchuped on the floor. Thinking UNDER cause I had expected closer to 193 here rather then 201. Problem with that is getting NYK defensive effort out of my mind
Under 196 Suns : Miami is looking to slow the pace and 90 points seems like alot to ask. Suns offense hasnt clicked yet outside of Char turrning the ball over to much vs them. Look at prior meetings in Miami...unfortunately those totals were much higher...Think I owuld take the 8 but Miami can only contend for One half IMO....
Den -2.5 : Simply cause even playing 3rd in 4 days the Nuggets have shown flashes. Wash jumped out to a huge lead and faded rather quickly. They did manage to keep it a game late but that tough loss could wear on them here . The big three scored all the points and played 40+ minutes. Denver showed some life in the 2nd H after the embarrassing 1st H @ Boston. Arenas clearly is less then 100% .
Det -8 : Mobley is OUT , Knight is IN and Maggette & Patterson are gametime decisions. Piston starters did lay heavy minutes but they have a better bench then LAC. They also had 3 days off before yesterday and start a West Coast swing after this. DET won by 18 twice last season . Big game for DET IMO facing a 4-0 LAC team that is depleted. UND 192.5 for sure.....
Hornets +3.5 : Always like my Home dogs...had this at -2 but maybe the bad loss @ PORT inflates it.
Bucks +9 : Could be a flat spot for Houston after battles with Dallas and Houston. I am concerned cause HOU has played solid ball and MILW hasnt played well in its 2 road games...slight lean to the dog
Not sure about the later schedule though like the Kings .....
BOL
Friday, November 09, 2007
Thursday, November 08, 2007
NBA:
Bulls :
Again we have a value play here. I think if Chicago didnt crap away 3 games ( NJN , Milw , and LAC) then you have somewhere around -3 here. Even with this 0-4 start this probably should be -1.5 CHI. First the Bulls went 3-1 reg season vs DET with a 2 pt loss. Same Bulls team really while DET flipped Webber for Hayes. Not literally or even position wise but in theory. Maxiell is getting more minutes but CHI pulss Forwards out there ass....
If Mobley was the key to LAC late run to close out CHI THEN Rip Hamilton should be someone Hinrich can physically handle.
DET impressive win was the B2B @ Orlando. They were okay versus a bad Miami team and when Rip returned they barely beat ATL. So DET isnt impressing me all that much. Chi has lost twice as BIG chalk at HOME to medicore Philly and LAC. That is shocking to some degree no matter what you think of the team. While playing ONLY 1 Half @ both Milw and NJN. They simply have not played 48 minutes of BB.
I think it will be a close game and due to that it makes the OVER 182 attractive rather then the UNDER. Late FTs could push this over the number. SO gonna watch the 1st H tempo to see if there is value.
Not sure about any NCAAF , other NBA or NHL yet...
Bulls :
Again we have a value play here. I think if Chicago didnt crap away 3 games ( NJN , Milw , and LAC) then you have somewhere around -3 here. Even with this 0-4 start this probably should be -1.5 CHI. First the Bulls went 3-1 reg season vs DET with a 2 pt loss. Same Bulls team really while DET flipped Webber for Hayes. Not literally or even position wise but in theory. Maxiell is getting more minutes but CHI pulss Forwards out there ass....
If Mobley was the key to LAC late run to close out CHI THEN Rip Hamilton should be someone Hinrich can physically handle.
DET impressive win was the B2B @ Orlando. They were okay versus a bad Miami team and when Rip returned they barely beat ATL. So DET isnt impressing me all that much. Chi has lost twice as BIG chalk at HOME to medicore Philly and LAC. That is shocking to some degree no matter what you think of the team. While playing ONLY 1 Half @ both Milw and NJN. They simply have not played 48 minutes of BB.
I think it will be a close game and due to that it makes the OVER 182 attractive rather then the UNDER. Late FTs could push this over the number. SO gonna watch the 1st H tempo to see if there is value.
Not sure about any NCAAF , other NBA or NHL yet...
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Not really the Night I was looking for last night. I think I have discovered the longer I look at the games the worse my performance is. For me i think its better to just take a couple of hours and weed through the stuff later in the day then go through games over and over again. Plus alot of things just look good at the last moment. Plays I may lean to and something just stands out close to tip. Such as NJN -2 1st H....anyway...
Magic @ Raps :
-Tor 8-2 SU past 10 meetings & 9-1 ATS( 6-0 at home ATS last 6 series).
-ORL injuries : Nelson should return from concussion , Turkoglu listed but no report of injury , Reddick OUT. If Turkoglu was to sit out that woukd be a huge difference with Garrity taking his spot and thinning the bench further. Also meaning more Adonal Foyle which is more defense and alot less offense.
I did't really like TOR yesterday after losing a tough OT game against Boston. I suspected they could be hungover and it seems they were. Mitchell rested his starters with only Ford playing 20 minutes while ORL had 4 guys play 37 + minutes .
Would have liked to see a -3 here but I think its great bounce back spot for the RAPS. Last year you would have seen about -6 here. ORL picked up Lewis and lost some role players while Tor flipped MoPete for Kapono. Kapono has been awful on defense and you wonder how do they contain Rashard Lewis here , maybe use 6'6 Parker on him ?? TOR has so much more depth look at there 2nd unit who get valuable minutes yesterday!
Totals are tough right now. Orl has flipped between allowing 80 something and 100+ something pts in its games. Alternating Under , Over , Under , Over , tonite? Raps had played solid D till yesterday as even Philly needed fourth quarter garbage points to get to 97. They have allowed alot of threes but havent put opponents on the line much.
Char @ Philly :
Felton's status from ROTOWORLD ( great site):
The Charlotte Observer reports that Raymond Felton's MRI came back "A-OK" and that at least, he should be with some rest, with a heavy dose of anti-inflammatories.
Felton is still questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies, but as the Bobcats want to be cautious with their young star, expect him to be rested at least for tonight in favor of Jeff McInnis. Check back later for further results of his tests and his game status for tonight.
So lets assume he is OUT and McInnis is in that hurts there offense. What I witnessd last nite was scary to say the least on offense from them. Would think Andre Miller plays here.
-Home team is 9-1 SU(Char 7-3 ATS) and Philly 5-0 (3-2 ATS).
I tend to not like taking the fav when a STAR player is OUT. Especially in his initial absence. So while everything points to Philly I will wait till gametime to make a decision which will probably be PASS unless this runs up higher to which I might take the DOG (+5.5 +??)
Both teams can defend looks like an UNDER 1st H to me.....
Pho @ ATL :
Not crazy about this one. Hawks have played well and Suns looked good last nite. I was reminded how well PHO can be on the road vs the EAST last night. So w/o getting like 7 or 8 points its tough to envision the dog wiining SU. They caught Dallas in a good spot and held on to win earlier.
Despite previous high scoring meetings I prefer the UNDER. Suns benefitted from sloppy play of CHAR last nite to push the pace and get easy look after easy look. I would think looking at how ATL has played it wont be so easy here. Suns are talking about there defense and ATL is limited on how many shots they get...who is there scorer after Joe Johnson ?? Josh Smith ?
LAC @ INDY :
If you look at past history you wonder where the FUCK did 207 coime from? UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings with no totals really above 192! If you recall Jim O"Brien is looking to play uptempo basketball and the main reason Jermaine O'Neal sat out the opener was due to conditioning . We saw what LAC could do at home vs uptempo offenses..115 and 120. If you look at last nights game the bulls shot an awful 35 % and combined for 79 2nd H points to finish with 188 in the game.
Really bad spot for LAC here . Third game in 4 nights while INDY has been off since 11/03!!!! Molbey has ben excellent and said his aggressive attitude is back. Hinrich said the physical play was tough for him to overcome on end in regards to guarding him. I would assume since Dunleavy is playing the 2 spot he will guard Mobley...Dunleavy is 6'10! While LAC has played three of the worst NBA teams at the moment Indy will be there toughest test IMO....You would expect Indy to run them out of the GYM! Indy allowed 99 shots to Wash , 96 to Miami and while only 66 to mem the Grizz still had 111 points!!!!!! Why ....51 FT attempts and Wash had 42 FT attempts....Miami just is not good offensively....
DEN @ Boston :
Another HOME team of REST with MOMENTUM playing a team in a B2B and 3rd in 4 days.
Before you get overexcited about the OVER. Boston is talking more about DEFENSE then offense and by this I mean the players. Allowed 83 vs Wash and 78 in regulation @ Toronto! With Denver remember Kenyon Martin didnt play. The Knicks havent looked good defensively and the only way they could WIN was to outscore DEN. I dont think BOSTON will play or feel that way. For DEN the Minny and NO games could be telling. DEN needs to push the pace and crate easy looks cause they dont have many shooters besides Kleiza and JR Smith both who can be inconsistent. Tough spot for DEN but like the UNDER.....
Miami @ Spurs :
I have come to realize that right now Miami is bad especially on offense. With that I am not in a rush to lay 11 points with SA cause of the issues they have had in B2B over the years. Going to be interesting to see Ricky Davis here vs Bowen. What would make think Miami doesnt score 85 here with Spurs playing last night ? If Spurs do cover then 97 is needed and that puts on 182..Hard to see Miami being as bad as PORT or SAC though.
memphis @ Seattle :
Another matchup that just puzzles. Seattle playing 3rd in 4 days while Mem is off since 11/03!
Over the years the Grizzlies have struggled @ Seattle but last years meetings showed no signs of defense .. Not to mention Mem is healthy again with Gasol while Sea is in rebuilding mode and doesnt know how to win games yet.
I hate chalk but dont see how we should bite on SEA in situations where they have to WIN to cash. Also SEA has announced plans to move and this is there 1st Home game...not a great spot! I dont see any defense but not sure about the total yet .
Cle @ Utah :
I dont get this line! Utah has beaten GSW twice and lost to Houston and LAL. We know GS is bad and while not impressively the Cavs did beat them last night. Again CLE 3rd roadie 4 days though. Hughes is OUT probably which makes me think more offense. Cle has won 5 of the 6 in the series and lost by 1 pint past two years. I know CLE has regressed some especially without Varejo , Hughes and Marshall here....
Cant justify laying -10 with Utah since McGrady and Kobe have killed them so why not LeBron ? I think this total is kinda low though ..???
Hornets @ Blazers :
Again madness..last game 11/3 for PORT and NO 3rd road game in 4 days...
These teams already met with NO cleaning house vs PORT 113-93. One thing for sure is I recall alot of people high on PORT in that spot after the OPENER. They started with3 tough games @ SA , @ NO , and @ HOU. For the most part they held there own in those games. Why would people jump ship on PORT now at home if they thought they could hang in NO? ( by the way I liked NO there)
Not crazy about this matchup but thinking DOG / UND. Port would need to win a sloppy game IMO....
THOUGHTS :
Raps -4.5 ( Und 191 )
( Char +4 / UND 189)
(Und 208 / ATL +6)
Over 207.5 / Ind -6
Und 202 (Den +6)
(Heat 1st H / Over 181)
Memphis PK ( Over 218)
(Cavs +9.5 / UND 194 ??)
Und 202 Port (Port +3)
GL
Magic @ Raps :
-Tor 8-2 SU past 10 meetings & 9-1 ATS( 6-0 at home ATS last 6 series).
-ORL injuries : Nelson should return from concussion , Turkoglu listed but no report of injury , Reddick OUT. If Turkoglu was to sit out that woukd be a huge difference with Garrity taking his spot and thinning the bench further. Also meaning more Adonal Foyle which is more defense and alot less offense.
I did't really like TOR yesterday after losing a tough OT game against Boston. I suspected they could be hungover and it seems they were. Mitchell rested his starters with only Ford playing 20 minutes while ORL had 4 guys play 37 + minutes .
Would have liked to see a -3 here but I think its great bounce back spot for the RAPS. Last year you would have seen about -6 here. ORL picked up Lewis and lost some role players while Tor flipped MoPete for Kapono. Kapono has been awful on defense and you wonder how do they contain Rashard Lewis here , maybe use 6'6 Parker on him ?? TOR has so much more depth look at there 2nd unit who get valuable minutes yesterday!
Totals are tough right now. Orl has flipped between allowing 80 something and 100+ something pts in its games. Alternating Under , Over , Under , Over , tonite? Raps had played solid D till yesterday as even Philly needed fourth quarter garbage points to get to 97. They have allowed alot of threes but havent put opponents on the line much.
Char @ Philly :
Felton's status from ROTOWORLD ( great site):
The Charlotte Observer reports that Raymond Felton's MRI came back "A-OK" and that at least, he should be with some rest, with a heavy dose of anti-inflammatories.
Felton is still questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies, but as the Bobcats want to be cautious with their young star, expect him to be rested at least for tonight in favor of Jeff McInnis. Check back later for further results of his tests and his game status for tonight.
So lets assume he is OUT and McInnis is in that hurts there offense. What I witnessd last nite was scary to say the least on offense from them. Would think Andre Miller plays here.
-Home team is 9-1 SU(Char 7-3 ATS) and Philly 5-0 (3-2 ATS).
I tend to not like taking the fav when a STAR player is OUT. Especially in his initial absence. So while everything points to Philly I will wait till gametime to make a decision which will probably be PASS unless this runs up higher to which I might take the DOG (+5.5 +??)
Both teams can defend looks like an UNDER 1st H to me.....
Pho @ ATL :
Not crazy about this one. Hawks have played well and Suns looked good last nite. I was reminded how well PHO can be on the road vs the EAST last night. So w/o getting like 7 or 8 points its tough to envision the dog wiining SU. They caught Dallas in a good spot and held on to win earlier.
Despite previous high scoring meetings I prefer the UNDER. Suns benefitted from sloppy play of CHAR last nite to push the pace and get easy look after easy look. I would think looking at how ATL has played it wont be so easy here. Suns are talking about there defense and ATL is limited on how many shots they get...who is there scorer after Joe Johnson ?? Josh Smith ?
LAC @ INDY :
If you look at past history you wonder where the FUCK did 207 coime from? UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings with no totals really above 192! If you recall Jim O"Brien is looking to play uptempo basketball and the main reason Jermaine O'Neal sat out the opener was due to conditioning . We saw what LAC could do at home vs uptempo offenses..115 and 120. If you look at last nights game the bulls shot an awful 35 % and combined for 79 2nd H points to finish with 188 in the game.
Really bad spot for LAC here . Third game in 4 nights while INDY has been off since 11/03!!!! Molbey has ben excellent and said his aggressive attitude is back. Hinrich said the physical play was tough for him to overcome on end in regards to guarding him. I would assume since Dunleavy is playing the 2 spot he will guard Mobley...Dunleavy is 6'10! While LAC has played three of the worst NBA teams at the moment Indy will be there toughest test IMO....You would expect Indy to run them out of the GYM! Indy allowed 99 shots to Wash , 96 to Miami and while only 66 to mem the Grizz still had 111 points!!!!!! Why ....51 FT attempts and Wash had 42 FT attempts....Miami just is not good offensively....
DEN @ Boston :
Another HOME team of REST with MOMENTUM playing a team in a B2B and 3rd in 4 days.
Before you get overexcited about the OVER. Boston is talking more about DEFENSE then offense and by this I mean the players. Allowed 83 vs Wash and 78 in regulation @ Toronto! With Denver remember Kenyon Martin didnt play. The Knicks havent looked good defensively and the only way they could WIN was to outscore DEN. I dont think BOSTON will play or feel that way. For DEN the Minny and NO games could be telling. DEN needs to push the pace and crate easy looks cause they dont have many shooters besides Kleiza and JR Smith both who can be inconsistent. Tough spot for DEN but like the UNDER.....
Miami @ Spurs :
I have come to realize that right now Miami is bad especially on offense. With that I am not in a rush to lay 11 points with SA cause of the issues they have had in B2B over the years. Going to be interesting to see Ricky Davis here vs Bowen. What would make think Miami doesnt score 85 here with Spurs playing last night ? If Spurs do cover then 97 is needed and that puts on 182..Hard to see Miami being as bad as PORT or SAC though.
memphis @ Seattle :
Another matchup that just puzzles. Seattle playing 3rd in 4 days while Mem is off since 11/03!
Over the years the Grizzlies have struggled @ Seattle but last years meetings showed no signs of defense .. Not to mention Mem is healthy again with Gasol while Sea is in rebuilding mode and doesnt know how to win games yet.
I hate chalk but dont see how we should bite on SEA in situations where they have to WIN to cash. Also SEA has announced plans to move and this is there 1st Home game...not a great spot! I dont see any defense but not sure about the total yet .
Cle @ Utah :
I dont get this line! Utah has beaten GSW twice and lost to Houston and LAL. We know GS is bad and while not impressively the Cavs did beat them last night. Again CLE 3rd roadie 4 days though. Hughes is OUT probably which makes me think more offense. Cle has won 5 of the 6 in the series and lost by 1 pint past two years. I know CLE has regressed some especially without Varejo , Hughes and Marshall here....
Cant justify laying -10 with Utah since McGrady and Kobe have killed them so why not LeBron ? I think this total is kinda low though ..???
Hornets @ Blazers :
Again madness..last game 11/3 for PORT and NO 3rd road game in 4 days...
These teams already met with NO cleaning house vs PORT 113-93. One thing for sure is I recall alot of people high on PORT in that spot after the OPENER. They started with3 tough games @ SA , @ NO , and @ HOU. For the most part they held there own in those games. Why would people jump ship on PORT now at home if they thought they could hang in NO? ( by the way I liked NO there)
Not crazy about this matchup but thinking DOG / UND. Port would need to win a sloppy game IMO....
THOUGHTS :
Raps -4.5 ( Und 191 )
( Char +4 / UND 189)
(Und 208 / ATL +6)
Over 207.5 / Ind -6
Und 202 (Den +6)
(Heat 1st H / Over 181)
Memphis PK ( Over 218)
(Cavs +9.5 / UND 194 ??)
Und 202 Port (Port +3)
GL
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Added : 4 team Parlay :
West Michigan (+3) , Islanders Over 5 -130 , Charlotte +4.5 and Bulls -8.5 ( Not allowed to buy 1/2's otherwise I would have!!!!!!!!)
NBA:
Bobcats +5 (-120) :
PLAYED
Looks like Amare doesnt play here IMO. He says he is gametime decision then talks about how there isnt much to play for in NOV and wants consistency. So to me that says if I dont feel 100% then I am not risking it. Right now the Suns are trying to figure it out as a team IMO. The past 2 games they have been badly out rebounded and opposing forwards seem to be having there way offensively. Enter Emeka Okefor. There best hope is put him on the FT line. They arent shooting the 3 pt ball well yet but still taking a ton. There FT % is only 68% and they tend to only get around 20 attempts a game.
Kinda split bewteen the 1st H +2 or game line. I say that cause Suns have started slow in all games with big comebacks in the 4th vs Sonics and Cavs. Nice value at about 2 to 1 on the ML .
As I have said I felt the TOTAL is tough. I dont see how Suns really do beter then 105 here...would guess it lands withing 6 points of the number either way...
While the Hawks have played well and look attractive they are off a tough LOSS and are a young team. So you don't know how they will play here till tip and NJN is off that horrible beating by the Raptors. NJ seems to be good at jumping out to big 1st half leads then wilting in the 2nd H. So I will sit tight till HALFTIME on that game. Unless I get a sac and play NJN 1st H -2. While I dont see a high scoring affair I do like how NJ gets to the FT line. Due to that I lean OVER as I think it sneaks ov 189...like 99-93 game...
Knicks +4 (-120)
Not a believer in DENVER. You have to like there talent but with AI playing the point he has looked bad on offense past 2 games. No real special insight here other then I think NY plays hard and keeps it a game. Which might make the 1st H a better option due to there ability to fold in the 4th quarter for oh 15 years NOW! My concerns for NY are Randolph already proving to be a BLACK HOLE and little to speak of from Q. Richardson to date...
8PM :
Only interested in the UNDER 191 or 1st H Under @ MILW. Still looking at that game...
West Michigan (+3) , Islanders Over 5 -130 , Charlotte +4.5 and Bulls -8.5 ( Not allowed to buy 1/2's otherwise I would have!!!!!!!!)
NBA:
Bobcats +5 (-120) :
PLAYED
Looks like Amare doesnt play here IMO. He says he is gametime decision then talks about how there isnt much to play for in NOV and wants consistency. So to me that says if I dont feel 100% then I am not risking it. Right now the Suns are trying to figure it out as a team IMO. The past 2 games they have been badly out rebounded and opposing forwards seem to be having there way offensively. Enter Emeka Okefor. There best hope is put him on the FT line. They arent shooting the 3 pt ball well yet but still taking a ton. There FT % is only 68% and they tend to only get around 20 attempts a game.
Kinda split bewteen the 1st H +2 or game line. I say that cause Suns have started slow in all games with big comebacks in the 4th vs Sonics and Cavs. Nice value at about 2 to 1 on the ML .
As I have said I felt the TOTAL is tough. I dont see how Suns really do beter then 105 here...would guess it lands withing 6 points of the number either way...
While the Hawks have played well and look attractive they are off a tough LOSS and are a young team. So you don't know how they will play here till tip and NJN is off that horrible beating by the Raptors. NJ seems to be good at jumping out to big 1st half leads then wilting in the 2nd H. So I will sit tight till HALFTIME on that game. Unless I get a sac and play NJN 1st H -2. While I dont see a high scoring affair I do like how NJ gets to the FT line. Due to that I lean OVER as I think it sneaks ov 189...like 99-93 game...
Knicks +4 (-120)
Not a believer in DENVER. You have to like there talent but with AI playing the point he has looked bad on offense past 2 games. No real special insight here other then I think NY plays hard and keeps it a game. Which might make the 1st H a better option due to there ability to fold in the 4th quarter for oh 15 years NOW! My concerns for NY are Randolph already proving to be a BLACK HOLE and little to speak of from Q. Richardson to date...
8PM :
Only interested in the UNDER 191 or 1st H Under @ MILW. Still looking at that game...
We know I see value in WMU tonight. The weather situation in my opinion would definetly hurt CMU more then WMU.
Remember my points about expectations. Well some people though this WMU team would be the class of the MAC this season. However what I didnt realize was last year when CMU won 31-7 it hurt WMU title shot. So besides being a huge rivalry there could be some revenge in mind here. Factor in WMU hasnt lost at home since 93 but probably the first time they are dogged in the series. Which as you know I dont think they should be a DOG here ( PK is correct).
Just look at CMU wins @ Kent State with a freshman QB making his 1st start , Home vs Army , vs Toledo with its backup QB , No.Ill who is awful and @ Ball State the lone win with any luster.
Now WMU won @ NILL and @ Toledo. While Toledo's home field edge has lost some luster its a much better win .
While CMU offense is explosive it doesnt show to me to be a solid team over the course of the season. Some sexy blowouts dont mean much to me. When you lay points especially road chalk you have to have what is clearly the better team and CMU is not IMO. Outside of Army they havent been favored by -3 against ANYONE!!! WMU problem is some shit luck at the end of games and UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS. Just read the Fox Sports Season Preview.
They had a BAD loss @ EMU which they blew that game with sloppy play. If they would have not melted down against Akron and Ball State they would be 5-4 and 3-1 at home only losing to Indiana. My point is this team is tough at home. Tough enough to be winning in the closing moments. I wouldn't expect a TEAM to be in that situation and lose again....
Take +3.5 or ML whatever feels more comfortable......BOL
Remember my points about expectations. Well some people though this WMU team would be the class of the MAC this season. However what I didnt realize was last year when CMU won 31-7 it hurt WMU title shot. So besides being a huge rivalry there could be some revenge in mind here. Factor in WMU hasnt lost at home since 93 but probably the first time they are dogged in the series. Which as you know I dont think they should be a DOG here ( PK is correct).
Just look at CMU wins @ Kent State with a freshman QB making his 1st start , Home vs Army , vs Toledo with its backup QB , No.Ill who is awful and @ Ball State the lone win with any luster.
Now WMU won @ NILL and @ Toledo. While Toledo's home field edge has lost some luster its a much better win .
While CMU offense is explosive it doesnt show to me to be a solid team over the course of the season. Some sexy blowouts dont mean much to me. When you lay points especially road chalk you have to have what is clearly the better team and CMU is not IMO. Outside of Army they havent been favored by -3 against ANYONE!!! WMU problem is some shit luck at the end of games and UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS. Just read the Fox Sports Season Preview.
They had a BAD loss @ EMU which they blew that game with sloppy play. If they would have not melted down against Akron and Ball State they would be 5-4 and 3-1 at home only losing to Indiana. My point is this team is tough at home. Tough enough to be winning in the closing moments. I wouldn't expect a TEAM to be in that situation and lose again....
Take +3.5 or ML whatever feels more comfortable......BOL
Preliminary Early look....
Western Michigan ML
I am BIG on playing what I deem as bad lines. In one sense I understand why this CMU team is favored but when I step back and look at the whole picture I think its a mistake. CMU has played some tough opponents and because of that I think they were somewhat undervalued against teams they were equal and slightily better then. Favored just 3 times each by 3 points. Only -3 at home vs Toledo( Cochran was out ) and No.Ill. Both easy wins but because of timing they were soft lines ( after loss @ KU and home loss vs ND State). CMU is better then these teams just NOT significantly better but -3 denotes that the difference is basically HOME FIELD advantage. So what i am saying is you got CMU cheap on those days. Last week with Edelman OUT they were just -3 to Kent St who isnt as good as WMU to begin with. They faced a QB making his first career start who happened to be a FRESHMAN! They also caught Ball State at a great time cause due to 4 startight good games by Ball State they caught 12 points !
CMU DEFENSE is BAD! Why would you lay points with a BAD defene playing on the road? Factor in home team is 9-1 last 10 in the series with CMU not winning @ WMU in quite awhile. What further creates VALUE is the fact WMU looked like SHIT @ EMU on 10/27 scoring on just a safety. Not to be lost is while they played like shit they were 6 pt road favs...so it was an UPSET.
WMU has two tough losses at home vs Ball State in the last minute and vs Akron on a kick return to end the game. WMU also has a fairly decent defense and certainly the better of the two teams. You can throw on the WMU defense though as Ball State and Akron have shown. Hiller has played well at times this season and as I said CMU defense has allowed 44 to NDTS , 32 to a freshman @ Kent State , and 70 @ Clemson.
It's funny cause just like the CMU lines seemed OFF all season so have WMU's. They have lost 3 times SU as favs to Indiana at home -1.5 , Akron at home -9.5 , @ EMU -6 . Which should tell you that WMU has NOT meet expectations and was supposed to better then they showed to date. Also the lone games they were dogged were +1 @ Toledo with Cochran starting which they rolled and PK at home vs Ball State which they lost on a TD in the final minute!
Personally I feel this should have been a PK but with WMU off such a tough loss then no one would have selected them. Remember the EMU game they simply played like shit but they werent exactly beat by EMU they beatthemselves. HUGE DIFFERENCE....."Western Michigan (3-6, 2-3) was hampered throughout the day by turnovers. The Broncos, who came in averaging more than 30 points a game, fumbled twice inside the Eastern Michigan 20, including once on the goal line. The Eagles also intercepted three passes"
3-2 game @ Half , 9-2 early 4th q...chalk it up as a bad DAY!It happens .
PLAY: Western Michigan ML...
Now this looks like an OVER but I have to wait and see cause we all know how UNDERS hit in mid week games.....GL
Western Michigan ML
I am BIG on playing what I deem as bad lines. In one sense I understand why this CMU team is favored but when I step back and look at the whole picture I think its a mistake. CMU has played some tough opponents and because of that I think they were somewhat undervalued against teams they were equal and slightily better then. Favored just 3 times each by 3 points. Only -3 at home vs Toledo( Cochran was out ) and No.Ill. Both easy wins but because of timing they were soft lines ( after loss @ KU and home loss vs ND State). CMU is better then these teams just NOT significantly better but -3 denotes that the difference is basically HOME FIELD advantage. So what i am saying is you got CMU cheap on those days. Last week with Edelman OUT they were just -3 to Kent St who isnt as good as WMU to begin with. They faced a QB making his first career start who happened to be a FRESHMAN! They also caught Ball State at a great time cause due to 4 startight good games by Ball State they caught 12 points !
CMU DEFENSE is BAD! Why would you lay points with a BAD defene playing on the road? Factor in home team is 9-1 last 10 in the series with CMU not winning @ WMU in quite awhile. What further creates VALUE is the fact WMU looked like SHIT @ EMU on 10/27 scoring on just a safety. Not to be lost is while they played like shit they were 6 pt road favs...so it was an UPSET.
WMU has two tough losses at home vs Ball State in the last minute and vs Akron on a kick return to end the game. WMU also has a fairly decent defense and certainly the better of the two teams. You can throw on the WMU defense though as Ball State and Akron have shown. Hiller has played well at times this season and as I said CMU defense has allowed 44 to NDTS , 32 to a freshman @ Kent State , and 70 @ Clemson.
It's funny cause just like the CMU lines seemed OFF all season so have WMU's. They have lost 3 times SU as favs to Indiana at home -1.5 , Akron at home -9.5 , @ EMU -6 . Which should tell you that WMU has NOT meet expectations and was supposed to better then they showed to date. Also the lone games they were dogged were +1 @ Toledo with Cochran starting which they rolled and PK at home vs Ball State which they lost on a TD in the final minute!
Personally I feel this should have been a PK but with WMU off such a tough loss then no one would have selected them. Remember the EMU game they simply played like shit but they werent exactly beat by EMU they beatthemselves. HUGE DIFFERENCE....."Western Michigan (3-6, 2-3) was hampered throughout the day by turnovers. The Broncos, who came in averaging more than 30 points a game, fumbled twice inside the Eastern Michigan 20, including once on the goal line. The Eagles also intercepted three passes"
3-2 game @ Half , 9-2 early 4th q...chalk it up as a bad DAY!It happens .
PLAY: Western Michigan ML...
Now this looks like an OVER but I have to wait and see cause we all know how UNDERS hit in mid week games.....GL
Monday, November 05, 2007
It is ONLY Halftime but folks I said it before start realizing how GOOD this PITT team is. While you are adjusting for that do the same for how bad BALT is. It's not the Ravens fault. You have both your starting corners out in bad weather no less. How many teams can deal with that in the NFL?? That means in todays NON DEPTH NFL due to the cap your starting #3 , #4 and #5 corners! A QB with a groin issue on a WET field whose OL hasnt been playing together because of injuries.....
Always remember REALITY versus PERCEPTION! I make many mistakes giving bad team credit but I feel like I saw this one coming.....
Lets hope the STEELERS finish it off. I am actually really tempted to play PITT PK 2nd H.....
Pitt is for real....BOL all!
Always remember REALITY versus PERCEPTION! I make many mistakes giving bad team credit but I feel like I saw this one coming.....
Lets hope the STEELERS finish it off. I am actually really tempted to play PITT PK 2nd H.....
Pitt is for real....BOL all!
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Ravens @ Steelers
Looking at this game I think to much emphasis is being put on what BALT has done compared to what BALT is doing this season. The same can be said for PITT. This is NOT the 13-3 Ravens of last year and this is not the banged up OL , banged up Big Ben , .500 Steeler team of last season. The Ravens schedule is a joke to date..Rams , Jets and Cards at home ?? While Pitt has blasted its inferior opponents at home in Buff , SF and Seattle. Which are teams that balt struggled with and to be honest I think Seattle is better then any team BALT played . They only won 21-0 w/o Ward or Polamalu.
What we have here is a Raven team who is lucky to be 1-3 on the road this season. They lost @ Cincy , @ Cle and @ Buffalo while winning by two @ SF. Now is any of those teams remotely as solid as PITT especially on the defensive side of the ball?? NO. So even with the return of McNair who IMO is not much of an upgrade over Boller , possible OL help for Terry and Ogden who are probably still less then 100% ( factor in the young players on the OL in a tough venue ) , Heaps availability but hamstring woes and no Wilcox, oh and they are w/o there 2 strating corners ! So they are using there 3,4 and 5 corners tonite!! Thats real dangerous with PITT relying more and more on the passing game and executing very nicely in it. The big return for BALT is Heap by far. If he is himself he is a huge weapon. If not the offense really doesnt improve much IMO.
The Raven pass rush may get a boost from Trevor Pryce being available. However talk about last year and think NO Adelius Thomas , Chris McAllister , Samari Rolle and a limited Trevor Pryce. Big difference in Ravens stout defense IMO.
At home Pitt has allowed just 1 4th quarter TD vs SF in 3 games!!! On the road Balt has scored two 2nd Half TDS @ Buffalo, 3 FG's @ SF , a 4th quarter TD @ Cle with 2 FG's and 13 points on offense vs Cincy (plus a defensive score). You know that Pitt can STOP the run so McGahee will be in for a tough one. So willl Wille Parker for that matter but as I said Pitt is a pass first offense and that will show tonite. You look at last week and the Steelers were unstoppable @ Cincy outside of 1 mistake INT near the end zone for Ben. Sure Pitt has had minor hiccups @ Zona and @ Den. However expectations were way to high in those games. people expected PITT to just show up and blow them out.
Basically what makes us believe that BALT's offense will do any better then it has in 4 previous road games? Here it would be versus a TOUGHER defense as well. So how does Balt break 14 points ( really 10 points)?? I dont see how. For Pitt they are facing a troubled secondary which you CANNOT hide. Bengals had 27 but a defensive score , Browns 24 by halftime , SF is awful on offense and had 7 , while Buff settled for alot of FGS but moved the ball and had 19 pts. I would expect worst case Pitt scores 23 points..worst case.....
It's true BALT is 5-0 L5 and 6-2 L8 off a BYE WEEK. However that doesnt really mean much to me as thats an indivual event every season.
Going to see where this line ends up but I like PITT as long as it stays below -10. I thought this would be -7.5 or -8 so really no difference in the higher number at -9. I feel they are just trying to make BALT look more attractive ...BOL
Ravens @ Steelers
Looking at this game I think to much emphasis is being put on what BALT has done compared to what BALT is doing this season. The same can be said for PITT. This is NOT the 13-3 Ravens of last year and this is not the banged up OL , banged up Big Ben , .500 Steeler team of last season. The Ravens schedule is a joke to date..Rams , Jets and Cards at home ?? While Pitt has blasted its inferior opponents at home in Buff , SF and Seattle. Which are teams that balt struggled with and to be honest I think Seattle is better then any team BALT played . They only won 21-0 w/o Ward or Polamalu.
What we have here is a Raven team who is lucky to be 1-3 on the road this season. They lost @ Cincy , @ Cle and @ Buffalo while winning by two @ SF. Now is any of those teams remotely as solid as PITT especially on the defensive side of the ball?? NO. So even with the return of McNair who IMO is not much of an upgrade over Boller , possible OL help for Terry and Ogden who are probably still less then 100% ( factor in the young players on the OL in a tough venue ) , Heaps availability but hamstring woes and no Wilcox, oh and they are w/o there 2 strating corners ! So they are using there 3,4 and 5 corners tonite!! Thats real dangerous with PITT relying more and more on the passing game and executing very nicely in it. The big return for BALT is Heap by far. If he is himself he is a huge weapon. If not the offense really doesnt improve much IMO.
The Raven pass rush may get a boost from Trevor Pryce being available. However talk about last year and think NO Adelius Thomas , Chris McAllister , Samari Rolle and a limited Trevor Pryce. Big difference in Ravens stout defense IMO.
At home Pitt has allowed just 1 4th quarter TD vs SF in 3 games!!! On the road Balt has scored two 2nd Half TDS @ Buffalo, 3 FG's @ SF , a 4th quarter TD @ Cle with 2 FG's and 13 points on offense vs Cincy (plus a defensive score). You know that Pitt can STOP the run so McGahee will be in for a tough one. So willl Wille Parker for that matter but as I said Pitt is a pass first offense and that will show tonite. You look at last week and the Steelers were unstoppable @ Cincy outside of 1 mistake INT near the end zone for Ben. Sure Pitt has had minor hiccups @ Zona and @ Den. However expectations were way to high in those games. people expected PITT to just show up and blow them out.
Basically what makes us believe that BALT's offense will do any better then it has in 4 previous road games? Here it would be versus a TOUGHER defense as well. So how does Balt break 14 points ( really 10 points)?? I dont see how. For Pitt they are facing a troubled secondary which you CANNOT hide. Bengals had 27 but a defensive score , Browns 24 by halftime , SF is awful on offense and had 7 , while Buff settled for alot of FGS but moved the ball and had 19 pts. I would expect worst case Pitt scores 23 points..worst case.....
It's true BALT is 5-0 L5 and 6-2 L8 off a BYE WEEK. However that doesnt really mean much to me as thats an indivual event every season.
Going to see where this line ends up but I like PITT as long as it stays below -10. I thought this would be -7.5 or -8 so really no difference in the higher number at -9. I feel they are just trying to make BALT look more attractive ...BOL
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Final NFL Thoughts:
Car @ Tenny :
The Titans have not scored on offense recently. They couldnt put up points versus Oakland , Atlanta and TB no matter how good there field position was. They now have a curious situation at RB. White is now on the injury report with toe issues and is questionable. Fisher saying he should be available is NOT would I want to har as a Tenny backer. henry has beennotified he will be suspended due to a positive drug test. He can play but you never know till gametime what will happen. He will probably appeal but maybe the organiztion takes a hard stance and benches him. Unlikely but be aware . Brown has been out a few games and like White did not pratice on FRI. So facing a better then avg run defense should be a concern now for Tenny.
With Carolina they still have Steve Smith as the Ultimate weapon. maybe he takes a PUNT to the house or something. Carr has been bad and is less then 100% but its not like your asking him to win shootout. The Titans runs defense is tough. However I look at there last games and know they had 2 huge leads early negating the opponents running game. The other 3 were bad offenses in TB , ATL and OAK...not that CAR is much better but I do think they are better.
While I know Tenny is the better team I cant see a reason to lay 4 points here. I wouldnt mind seeing Matt Moore in the game if need be. Nothing better then putting a young player in position with NO EXPECTATIONS. A relief appearance would be fine with me. Its alot different then knowing your starting and having a team gameplan for you. Bottomline is how could you expect points both teams must limit mistakes. Panthers have been road warriors....
Cincy @ Buff:
Same deal here as stated before. With LB issues teams should be able to run the ball on Cincy. With Losman you have the deep ball ability back into the game. I would think both teams find ways to score facing defenses that are worse then they appear. Dallas didnt struggle throwing the ball versus BUF when Romo was throwing to his guys. The OVER 43 seems enticing even with most BUF home games in the mid 30s. No way I take Cincy as road chalk....what I dont like is that BUF defense cant be expected to stop Cincy so they must score to compete....Bills or pass
Den @ Det :
John Lynch's status is key for me. I dont think either defense can stop the offenses. It's real shocking how bad DEN's is and there offense can move the ball but always sputters at the wrong times. Right now I am still not a believer in DET ...Chi and TB who? So like the points and the over ...doe sthe fade DET of a win as a dog now favored rule apply ??? I dont get the negative comments about Cutler he definetly looks fine when I see him. They have no playmakers on offense but he makes plays....
GB @ KC :
Feel like KC continues to improve with LJ and Bowe playing much better. GB SHOULD have lost that game but DEN played for a TIE!! The KC defense is much better then Denvers and will present a problem. Ryan Grant wont look as good . Great situational angle with KC off a BYE playing the SU winner on MNF! Just se KC as the better team. Huard has been okay since last year when he just has to manage a game. healthy Holmes and LJ plus two options in the passing game. Only concern is Rayner kicking but maybe he wants to show GB something...
Jax @ NO :
Last week I saw the value in Jax. Here I dont. If you saw the Colts and TB games you realize the Jags weakness is pass defense( even Houston game). Well Brees has played well 3 straight games and they shredded SF secondary last week. Saints can stop the run and that means you depend on Gray to keep drives alive and make plays. Saints are HOT and think it continues here....they were terrible 1st 3 games but should have won 4 straight..
SD @ Minny:
Phillips and Jammer are gametime decisions which could level the playing field some. Minny will be w/o Troy Williamson , start Tavaris Jackson cause Holcomb is OUT , possibly be w/o there best corner Antonie Winfield though safety Dwight Smith will return. You can throw the ball on SD but thats not something Minny does well especially with homerun threat Williamson out. Minny is stout versus the run but SD would be wise to just utilize LT more in the passing game. Travel is tough on SD with the early start. I just love what Chambers adds to the offense. SD looked great on offense last week in the 1st Half. The only way Minny covers is to find away to score and we know AP is threat but these RUN defense are tough. Lean towards the over and would only tease SD down or play the ML...I would hate to be a sucker!
SF @ ATL :
Why would one see value in SF? There QB is hurt , there stud RB is battling ankle injuries , DJ has been quiet and is returning from injury. There secondary looked horrible last week vs NO. How is SF competing here especially with the early start? ATL is off a BYE facing a team flying cross country!! Falcons had played well before the Giant game at home....they are simple in a better position to win this game being home.....I think since Manny Lawson went down so did the level of play on defense , now add Walt Harris to the list. The Falcons have questions with Crumpler being doubtful and OL issues...
If SF cant win at home why on the road??
Wash @ NYJ:
Simply cant see how WASH is favored by 3.5. Yes , the Jets stink but they are in every game! Clemens should be an upgrade but dont like Coles being OUT. However if Mangini is wise he starts Brad Smith cause the dropoff isnt as wide with McCareins. The Skins lost Carlos Rogers weakening severlythere best asset. Now a banged up Smoot and Springs will start. Look how bad the offense has been recently and you feel comfortable laying points? Clemens almost won in BALT and I think having a new young QB gives a team something to play for.....Skins have shown no improvement this season. Remember they needed OT to win vs Miami at home! People thinking WASH is good just isnt accurate.....they arent much better then NYJ..
Ari @ TB :
Actually the Cards are one of my favorite dogs. Early on the TB defense looked like days of old but injuries continueto rob them off peak performance. Brian kelly , Greg Spires and nickel Torry Cox....remember a few weeks back how badly they struggled with Tenny then last week vs Jax....cards have become a live dog....they have the offenseive weapons and TB doesnt have much of a pass rush. The TB running game is so-so. Clayton a good blocker is OUT , the OL hasnt been the same , Bennett is questionable, Pittman probably out another week...
4 PM:
Oakland tends to be an automatic fade as a favorite. However HOU might be that bad. The switch back to McCown could help the offense or the aful play of HOU defense lately could ! Schaub is OUT and while Rosenfals is solid he isnt as good as Schaub. The RB situation is a mystery though Green should play. Daniels and Andre Davis were banged up last week. Andre Johnson is tsill out. raiders suck as favs but they at least could have won the past 3 games.....see no reason to play HOU here..
Of course I want to play the COLTS. However w/o marvin Harrison I cant. See NE is a well oil machined and you need the same quality machine to go up against it. With Harrision OUT I question the Colts WR. THE NE defense is getting healthy and INDYs is all banged up. I hate to say it but Pats by a TD.They are getting better each week and I think Colts have some yet undiscovered flaws.....Pats looked okay until the DAL game since they have grown stronger. This is one game where you cant say NE laying 6 means 13 points at Foxboro...its not like that all the time. Not a good rational IMO. If Marvin Harrison were 100% I would be on it. Probably just watch and see if my expectations of NE by 7-10 come through...you know Belichek wants to cover and hardly say shit like that. He is making a statement though no doubt! Again comments about BOOKS getting killed on NE are UNTRUE! Every SUND its the same shit. people think lines to high and take it down a 1 pt or so...
Car @ Tenny :
The Titans have not scored on offense recently. They couldnt put up points versus Oakland , Atlanta and TB no matter how good there field position was. They now have a curious situation at RB. White is now on the injury report with toe issues and is questionable. Fisher saying he should be available is NOT would I want to har as a Tenny backer. henry has beennotified he will be suspended due to a positive drug test. He can play but you never know till gametime what will happen. He will probably appeal but maybe the organiztion takes a hard stance and benches him. Unlikely but be aware . Brown has been out a few games and like White did not pratice on FRI. So facing a better then avg run defense should be a concern now for Tenny.
With Carolina they still have Steve Smith as the Ultimate weapon. maybe he takes a PUNT to the house or something. Carr has been bad and is less then 100% but its not like your asking him to win shootout. The Titans runs defense is tough. However I look at there last games and know they had 2 huge leads early negating the opponents running game. The other 3 were bad offenses in TB , ATL and OAK...not that CAR is much better but I do think they are better.
While I know Tenny is the better team I cant see a reason to lay 4 points here. I wouldnt mind seeing Matt Moore in the game if need be. Nothing better then putting a young player in position with NO EXPECTATIONS. A relief appearance would be fine with me. Its alot different then knowing your starting and having a team gameplan for you. Bottomline is how could you expect points both teams must limit mistakes. Panthers have been road warriors....
Cincy @ Buff:
Same deal here as stated before. With LB issues teams should be able to run the ball on Cincy. With Losman you have the deep ball ability back into the game. I would think both teams find ways to score facing defenses that are worse then they appear. Dallas didnt struggle throwing the ball versus BUF when Romo was throwing to his guys. The OVER 43 seems enticing even with most BUF home games in the mid 30s. No way I take Cincy as road chalk....what I dont like is that BUF defense cant be expected to stop Cincy so they must score to compete....Bills or pass
Den @ Det :
John Lynch's status is key for me. I dont think either defense can stop the offenses. It's real shocking how bad DEN's is and there offense can move the ball but always sputters at the wrong times. Right now I am still not a believer in DET ...Chi and TB who? So like the points and the over ...doe sthe fade DET of a win as a dog now favored rule apply ??? I dont get the negative comments about Cutler he definetly looks fine when I see him. They have no playmakers on offense but he makes plays....
GB @ KC :
Feel like KC continues to improve with LJ and Bowe playing much better. GB SHOULD have lost that game but DEN played for a TIE!! The KC defense is much better then Denvers and will present a problem. Ryan Grant wont look as good . Great situational angle with KC off a BYE playing the SU winner on MNF! Just se KC as the better team. Huard has been okay since last year when he just has to manage a game. healthy Holmes and LJ plus two options in the passing game. Only concern is Rayner kicking but maybe he wants to show GB something...
Jax @ NO :
Last week I saw the value in Jax. Here I dont. If you saw the Colts and TB games you realize the Jags weakness is pass defense( even Houston game). Well Brees has played well 3 straight games and they shredded SF secondary last week. Saints can stop the run and that means you depend on Gray to keep drives alive and make plays. Saints are HOT and think it continues here....they were terrible 1st 3 games but should have won 4 straight..
SD @ Minny:
Phillips and Jammer are gametime decisions which could level the playing field some. Minny will be w/o Troy Williamson , start Tavaris Jackson cause Holcomb is OUT , possibly be w/o there best corner Antonie Winfield though safety Dwight Smith will return. You can throw the ball on SD but thats not something Minny does well especially with homerun threat Williamson out. Minny is stout versus the run but SD would be wise to just utilize LT more in the passing game. Travel is tough on SD with the early start. I just love what Chambers adds to the offense. SD looked great on offense last week in the 1st Half. The only way Minny covers is to find away to score and we know AP is threat but these RUN defense are tough. Lean towards the over and would only tease SD down or play the ML...I would hate to be a sucker!
SF @ ATL :
Why would one see value in SF? There QB is hurt , there stud RB is battling ankle injuries , DJ has been quiet and is returning from injury. There secondary looked horrible last week vs NO. How is SF competing here especially with the early start? ATL is off a BYE facing a team flying cross country!! Falcons had played well before the Giant game at home....they are simple in a better position to win this game being home.....I think since Manny Lawson went down so did the level of play on defense , now add Walt Harris to the list. The Falcons have questions with Crumpler being doubtful and OL issues...
If SF cant win at home why on the road??
Wash @ NYJ:
Simply cant see how WASH is favored by 3.5. Yes , the Jets stink but they are in every game! Clemens should be an upgrade but dont like Coles being OUT. However if Mangini is wise he starts Brad Smith cause the dropoff isnt as wide with McCareins. The Skins lost Carlos Rogers weakening severlythere best asset. Now a banged up Smoot and Springs will start. Look how bad the offense has been recently and you feel comfortable laying points? Clemens almost won in BALT and I think having a new young QB gives a team something to play for.....Skins have shown no improvement this season. Remember they needed OT to win vs Miami at home! People thinking WASH is good just isnt accurate.....they arent much better then NYJ..
Ari @ TB :
Actually the Cards are one of my favorite dogs. Early on the TB defense looked like days of old but injuries continueto rob them off peak performance. Brian kelly , Greg Spires and nickel Torry Cox....remember a few weeks back how badly they struggled with Tenny then last week vs Jax....cards have become a live dog....they have the offenseive weapons and TB doesnt have much of a pass rush. The TB running game is so-so. Clayton a good blocker is OUT , the OL hasnt been the same , Bennett is questionable, Pittman probably out another week...
4 PM:
Oakland tends to be an automatic fade as a favorite. However HOU might be that bad. The switch back to McCown could help the offense or the aful play of HOU defense lately could ! Schaub is OUT and while Rosenfals is solid he isnt as good as Schaub. The RB situation is a mystery though Green should play. Daniels and Andre Davis were banged up last week. Andre Johnson is tsill out. raiders suck as favs but they at least could have won the past 3 games.....see no reason to play HOU here..
Of course I want to play the COLTS. However w/o marvin Harrison I cant. See NE is a well oil machined and you need the same quality machine to go up against it. With Harrision OUT I question the Colts WR. THE NE defense is getting healthy and INDYs is all banged up. I hate to say it but Pats by a TD.They are getting better each week and I think Colts have some yet undiscovered flaws.....Pats looked okay until the DAL game since they have grown stronger. This is one game where you cant say NE laying 6 means 13 points at Foxboro...its not like that all the time. Not a good rational IMO. If Marvin Harrison were 100% I would be on it. Probably just watch and see if my expectations of NE by 7-10 come through...you know Belichek wants to cover and hardly say shit like that. He is making a statement though no doubt! Again comments about BOOKS getting killed on NE are UNTRUE! Every SUND its the same shit. people think lines to high and take it down a 1 pt or so...
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