Tuesday, December 18, 2007

NCAAB:

Marshall @ Louisville-


Tough to get a read on the Thundering Herd since they have played only a few quality opponents. They split with E. Tenn State ( a reach to call them quality) , lost @ Wright State by 7 , and beat Morehead State in what I deem as a bad spot for them after losing @ Austin Peay. Marshall takes alot of threes (often settling for threes), attempts alot of FTs and puts there opponents on the LINE often. They now have Cespedes running the point since his return from an ankle sprain. Which hopefully should increase offensive production.

Caracter is reinstated. Supposedly won't start though. I guess we can say that Louisville is still in disarray though. They have not been able to show consistency. You would think Caracter's suspension inspires him short term but thats an indivual thing.

With a new coach this game is clearly a measuring stick for Marshall. I believe Louisville opened the season ranked in the Top 10 but have now slide from the Top 25. Marshall has a few games under there belt so it should be interesting.

It appears to be Marshall should be able to score some here. The key number here is 59, if Marshall scores 59 + the 15pt line you would have to at least split the Over / Dog combo.

Right now I am more interested in over 132 .While Louisville has struggled alot of the fade value is being sucked out but Marshall's unknown skill level balances it out.

OVER 132

Elon @ Chatt :

No feel here. Elon has a 3-0 conference record. Chatt has played real well past 2 games vs Tenn and Charleston. With a 138 total I would lean Over cause Elon has managed to crack the 60's away versus some defensive minded squads like VTech , VCU and Georgia. Would lean Chatt just not sure what the line should be and if this is a flat spot for them.


So.Ill @ West Michigan -

So.ILL just seems to limited on offensive to control games on the road. There latest road loss was @ struggling ST.LOUIS!! It's basically the Shaw and Falker show. Mullins chips here and there but the bench had ZERO points @ STL!

Interesting to see if WMich responds here. They said they were fatigued and had the right to be. Then they allow Northwestern to shot 12/27 from three and lose by 2 at home. After another week off they play @ IUPUI and lose again. Now IUPUI is solid this season playing some quality teams real well. W.Mich can shoot the three. They have played well vs Oregon and defeated Davidson at home.

W.Michigan +3.5

Ohio State @ Clev State -

Huge game for Cleveland State who has already defeated FSU on a neutral floor , won @ USF and played fairly well @ George Mason. Ohio State is a team trying to find an identity. The Buckeyes managed to shock Syracuse but have not played that well vs UNC ( shorthanded) , @ Butler , and vs Texas A&M.

Interesting spot for the Buckeyes since they host Florida on Saturday. Gary Waters is emphasizing home court play (but this is at Cavs court)and feels Youngstown State was a step in the right direction.

Cleveland State +7

Kansas @ GaTech -

Seems odd that GT has not played since 12/5 @ Georgia State and this is there first home game since the opener versus Greensboro. You worry about a sluggish start here.

Kansas has Collins back and GT has Peacock back.

Since GT is down near the bottom in most defensive categories you would expect KU to be able to contine there run of breaking 80 points. While GT has struggled I see no reason why they can't keep this a game. What I do like is the Over 151....

Over 151


StBonnies @ Wright State-

Not sure what to make here. Simply cause I wonder what type effort Wright State puts forward after 4 consecutive tough home games and a buzzer beater vs Miami Ohio.

Charleston @ FSU -

Nothing concrete here. Seems like alot of points for Cremins and his Charleston squad. You wonder if the opening of ACC play makes this a lookahead spot.

Charleston +17 small

Charlotte @ Tulsa -

Charlotte is 1-3 off its home floor with even that being just a 1 pt win. Tulsa holds a great home court edge but has NOT played anyone yet and still has struggled.


FlaIntl @ Mid Tenn-

No opinion. Think yo have to fade Midd Tenn as chalk for now and possibly an over.

Pepperdine @ Little Rock-

Yo have to like Pepperdine's progress. The concern is the fact they always seem to be traveling. Ark-LR didnt look that impressive in the conference opener vs FIU and I think Pepperdine can compete ( at least for a half). With there pressing , up tempo style its hard to not like Pepperdine overs.

Pepperdine 1st Half LEAN

SE Missouri State @ Samford- Since Samford is favored I would expectthem to dictate pace and style. Therefore UND 131....

Murray State @ Jax State-

Conference home dog who has battled Murray State in the past. Think the points are attarctive with Murray State's inconsistency.

Montana State @ ASU-

You wonder how a team with 7 freshman and sophs in there rotation will respond after such a huge upset? Montana State is coming off a nice upset win @ Wyoming.

At times Montana State has struggled on the road but they have also battled Nevada and UNLV. ASU has smoked teams at home but mostly inferior competition. Small lean towards the points.....

Kentucky @ Houston-

I just dont see what Houston has done to date. Kentucky is desperate now after loing the past 3 games to UNC , Indiana and UAB. Leaning Kentucky +4 here..

New Orleans vs Southern Miss -

I dont much about So Miss so I think the line is high seeing how NO is playing. What I do expect is a competitive game leading to an over.

San Fran @ LBST -

Long Beach State is slowly showing improvement. While its odd to see them as a favorite what has SF done to impress?? have to lean LBST here...

Port State @ Washington-

The Huskies continue to struggle ve medicore competition. There ATS record is terrible with the backdoor cover vs Pitt at home. Port State is better then Portland and has already defeated Portland. They have played well @ Wash State as well, plus defeated Akron early...thought we would see -10 here.....+12 makes the dog attractive.....

Alcorn State @ LaTech-

Looking at the dog because LTech could be that challenged offensively.

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