Been a scramble all night to get all the games cap. It's just a ridiculous about of games. Still working on the NFL though.
I had to laugh cause if you are watching BC / FSU ( I have FSU ) then you heard Musberger (sp??) say the game got into the 40s( closing total 39.5 or 40). Thats alot of points considering the weather.
Now we all know what the total was and how many UNDER tickets got shredded on the pick 6 ...but the average joe probably doesnt get that comment...sorry you lost Bret it happens!
Root for me....Cal -15 , Wyoming +3.5 , Under 5.5 Avs and Anahem 4 team parlay..gambled and hedged with Wash St +8 2nd H hoping the other three hold...
Saturday, November 03, 2007
Just some thoughts :
Like how Texas came back but that last TD is extremely deflating. Still think I have a shot BUT would not touch either side at HALFTIME...
Would take a shot on the 2nd H UNDER @ USF if I didnt already have the Cincy play pending.
Did take Maryland ML 2nd H somewhat cautiously. I think UNC played better and only wound up 6. If your gonna ask a team to close out a game I prefer Maryland even away. Look how Miami responded vs them in the 2nd H. Clearly two different situations but they also couldnt close out UVA earlier if I recall correctly.
Lets see how it shakes out. Only 3 sports to cap.....
Like how Texas came back but that last TD is extremely deflating. Still think I have a shot BUT would not touch either side at HALFTIME...
Would take a shot on the 2nd H UNDER @ USF if I didnt already have the Cincy play pending.
Did take Maryland ML 2nd H somewhat cautiously. I think UNC played better and only wound up 6. If your gonna ask a team to close out a game I prefer Maryland even away. Look how Miami responded vs them in the 2nd H. Clearly two different situations but they also couldnt close out UVA earlier if I recall correctly.
Lets see how it shakes out. Only 3 sports to cap.....
These days are simply impossible to catch up on. Got home late and wasnt prepared for today really. Still havent even blinked at NHL or NBA. For that matter any game starting at beyond 3:30.
Early plays I had were Ball State and Under Ohio State. Very foolish of me to not hedge at the half with the total. So that sucked. Then went with Iowa 2nd Half and 3 team parlay with all 2nd half Wake , Iowa and NCST. Which just hit. So thats good. Unfortunately I didnt want to force anything and have been pretty on point to date. Games that are going on now here is what I liked. Maybe this will help with seeing some value in HALFTIME lines:
Over 60 Memphis
Col St +21
Buffalo +6.5
Over 71 Rice
FIU +17
Under 58 Boise State
Now I just went with Texas -1.5 , Cincy +6 -120 , Over 62 UC. With 1/2 plays on Mich State and Over 61.5 Texas
Only had leans on Under 51 Mich State..Actually wanted to play Maryland ML but missed it!
Working on the rest of todays headache...one game all week that stuck out for me was COLORADO as a home doggie....
Be Back and GL
Early plays I had were Ball State and Under Ohio State. Very foolish of me to not hedge at the half with the total. So that sucked. Then went with Iowa 2nd Half and 3 team parlay with all 2nd half Wake , Iowa and NCST. Which just hit. So thats good. Unfortunately I didnt want to force anything and have been pretty on point to date. Games that are going on now here is what I liked. Maybe this will help with seeing some value in HALFTIME lines:
Over 60 Memphis
Col St +21
Buffalo +6.5
Over 71 Rice
FIU +17
Under 58 Boise State
Now I just went with Texas -1.5 , Cincy +6 -120 , Over 62 UC. With 1/2 plays on Mich State and Over 61.5 Texas
Only had leans on Under 51 Mich State..Actually wanted to play Maryland ML but missed it!
Working on the rest of todays headache...one game all week that stuck out for me was COLORADO as a home doggie....
Be Back and GL
Thursday, November 01, 2007
NHL :
Didnt have enough time to get to the NHL games before 7 starts:
Bruins Even
Under 5.5 +110 Montreal
Blues +140
Col -150
Anaheim -190
Would suggest a 3 team parlay with STL , Col and ANA...
Leans :
Under 5.5 NYI ( if I had tp pick it would have been NYI)
Over 6 Bruins Even
Caps / Over 5.5 (if I had to pick on both)
Montreal -130
Atlanta / Under 6
Over 5 Minny
Over 5.5 Cal (if i had to pick one type)
Over 6.5 Pitt
Nashville / Over 5.5
Guess I expect some goals to be scored but I really rushed through this 1st time. I want to go back and do more work
Didnt have enough time to get to the NHL games before 7 starts:
Bruins Even
Under 5.5 +110 Montreal
Blues +140
Col -150
Anaheim -190
Would suggest a 3 team parlay with STL , Col and ANA...
Leans :
Under 5.5 NYI ( if I had tp pick it would have been NYI)
Over 6 Bruins Even
Caps / Over 5.5 (if I had to pick on both)
Montreal -130
Atlanta / Under 6
Over 5 Minny
Over 5.5 Cal (if i had to pick one type)
Over 6.5 Pitt
Nashville / Over 5.5
Guess I expect some goals to be scored but I really rushed through this 1st time. I want to go back and do more work
NCAAF :
VaTech travels to GaTech :
1) How does VaTech respond after losing( maybe choking) versus Boston College at home. You have to think as they put it dominanting the #2 team at home for 57 minutes then losing takes a toll mentally. You wonder if the defense is asking themselves what more can we do?? Looks like taylor is back but he hasnt done anything to make me feel the passing game is better. He does use his legs to get yards though. However is a sprained ankle going to limit that ??
2) GaTech w/o its top 2 RBs Grant and Choice? It appears just like the Broncos GT can simple dig down the depth chart and pul a high quality back out. Curious to see about the injured lineman listed on the injury report. Not sure what thats about .
3) Who will score? I think clearly GaTech has the edge in the passing game except there WRs dont impress me much. For offense it seems VaTech over relies on its defense and special teams to put points on the board. Ore looked good last week but generally they have not done much on the ground. I think Ore is solid but cant look at one team he has run well against and say the problem is cured. UNDER looks enticing but I think GaTech can pass on VaTech and I dont think GaTech defense is as good as it looks on paper. Have 20-17 in my head as a worst case scenario....
Right now that's I all can see. Tough to fade VT on Thursday nite catching points but GT seems in a better situation....
Might just pass...GL
VaTech travels to GaTech :
1) How does VaTech respond after losing( maybe choking) versus Boston College at home. You have to think as they put it dominanting the #2 team at home for 57 minutes then losing takes a toll mentally. You wonder if the defense is asking themselves what more can we do?? Looks like taylor is back but he hasnt done anything to make me feel the passing game is better. He does use his legs to get yards though. However is a sprained ankle going to limit that ??
2) GaTech w/o its top 2 RBs Grant and Choice? It appears just like the Broncos GT can simple dig down the depth chart and pul a high quality back out. Curious to see about the injured lineman listed on the injury report. Not sure what thats about .
3) Who will score? I think clearly GaTech has the edge in the passing game except there WRs dont impress me much. For offense it seems VaTech over relies on its defense and special teams to put points on the board. Ore looked good last week but generally they have not done much on the ground. I think Ore is solid but cant look at one team he has run well against and say the problem is cured. UNDER looks enticing but I think GaTech can pass on VaTech and I dont think GaTech defense is as good as it looks on paper. Have 20-17 in my head as a worst case scenario....
Right now that's I all can see. Tough to fade VT on Thursday nite catching points but GT seems in a better situation....
Might just pass...GL
NBA:
Hope people realize the NBA has clearly changed and alot more teams are trying to play the Pho Suns now. So be cautious thinking totals are high based on previous performances.
Suns @ Seattle:
Real big number . I thought that Seattle played better then expected for 3 quarters last night. I guess who didn't?? My point is we can expect alot of 4th quarter struggles from them due to youth and lack of go to scorer. As much as like Delonte West his sloppiness really killed my Sea play late with consecutive turnovers that led to fastbreaks when it was 12 pt game. After that blowout city! Anyway I think Nash and Amare could be at less then peak performance. His coach said that Amare is still working his way into shape so that MAY put a cap on his minutes( 18 and 25 minutes in his last 2 games). He looked excellent last 2 preseason games but there will be a helluva alot running here. So look for that factor. The second factor is regarding Steve Nash. Read this regarding Nash: "It will take him a couple of games to really get going," D'Antoni said, "then I expect him to have the same type of year he had the last couple."
Last nite despite being the higher altitude they didnt extend anyone beyond Damien Wilkins who played 35 minutes. The rest of the players played just enough about 30 minutes or less.
While some might dismiss this I like the fact that in a recent preseason game in British Columbia the Sonics beat Pho who starters all played at least 30 minutes. They were w/o Barbosa( brusied ribs) and Diaw though. Seattle didnt have Durant , lost Green in the 2nd Half but had Kurt Thomas. If Kurt Thomas plays here I really like this big fat DOG....It may be better to take SEA 1st H and fade the in 4th quarters...just an option to contemplate.....Also dont over look Barbosa bruised ribs..and the fact they have LA tmrw at home could play into the minutes some get tonite despite D'Antoni liking short rotations. Back to the prseason game for a moment. I think cause it was in British Columbia witha pro Suns and Nash crowd it was a tough enviroment and had more then an exhibtion feel. Just my feeling..
High total at 223...prefer the over still...
Detriot @ Miami :
Rip Hamilton and Dwayne Wade are OUT.
This goes back to that little article I posted yesterday where I tried to show how traders approached market perception in the financial world. Big reason why I saw value in Lakers and Pacers so far. Granted they were fairly lucky wins especially LAL. However the key is to make the proper decision and hope it all works when its over . This isnt handicapping its purely making a play based on situation and market perception..hopefully misperception.
Miami doesnt have a great #2 option outside of Shaq but I dont think DET has much of an answer for Shaq with McDyess in the middle. Also probably why DET is 1-7-1 L9 ATS vs Miami cause they really havent had an answer for Shaq. I love the commenst about how Ricky Davis respects Riley so much he wanted to play for him. Could we see a different Davis? The guy is capable of 25 points. Then you have a bunch of role players in JWill , Parker , Haslem , Dorrell Wright , even good ole Penny Hardaway...
So yeah I like another home dog that no one is counting on....
Not sure what I think about Houston and Utah yet....I wonder is everyone in love with Utah beating on an inferior opponent and is everyone down on Houston cause they remember they ATS loss rather the fact they led by dd's most of teh 2nd half.
Hope people realize the NBA has clearly changed and alot more teams are trying to play the Pho Suns now. So be cautious thinking totals are high based on previous performances.
Suns @ Seattle:
Real big number . I thought that Seattle played better then expected for 3 quarters last night. I guess who didn't?? My point is we can expect alot of 4th quarter struggles from them due to youth and lack of go to scorer. As much as like Delonte West his sloppiness really killed my Sea play late with consecutive turnovers that led to fastbreaks when it was 12 pt game. After that blowout city! Anyway I think Nash and Amare could be at less then peak performance. His coach said that Amare is still working his way into shape so that MAY put a cap on his minutes( 18 and 25 minutes in his last 2 games). He looked excellent last 2 preseason games but there will be a helluva alot running here. So look for that factor. The second factor is regarding Steve Nash. Read this regarding Nash: "It will take him a couple of games to really get going," D'Antoni said, "then I expect him to have the same type of year he had the last couple."
Last nite despite being the higher altitude they didnt extend anyone beyond Damien Wilkins who played 35 minutes. The rest of the players played just enough about 30 minutes or less.
While some might dismiss this I like the fact that in a recent preseason game in British Columbia the Sonics beat Pho who starters all played at least 30 minutes. They were w/o Barbosa( brusied ribs) and Diaw though. Seattle didnt have Durant , lost Green in the 2nd Half but had Kurt Thomas. If Kurt Thomas plays here I really like this big fat DOG....It may be better to take SEA 1st H and fade the in 4th quarters...just an option to contemplate.....Also dont over look Barbosa bruised ribs..and the fact they have LA tmrw at home could play into the minutes some get tonite despite D'Antoni liking short rotations. Back to the prseason game for a moment. I think cause it was in British Columbia witha pro Suns and Nash crowd it was a tough enviroment and had more then an exhibtion feel. Just my feeling..
High total at 223...prefer the over still...
Detriot @ Miami :
Rip Hamilton and Dwayne Wade are OUT.
This goes back to that little article I posted yesterday where I tried to show how traders approached market perception in the financial world. Big reason why I saw value in Lakers and Pacers so far. Granted they were fairly lucky wins especially LAL. However the key is to make the proper decision and hope it all works when its over . This isnt handicapping its purely making a play based on situation and market perception..hopefully misperception.
Miami doesnt have a great #2 option outside of Shaq but I dont think DET has much of an answer for Shaq with McDyess in the middle. Also probably why DET is 1-7-1 L9 ATS vs Miami cause they really havent had an answer for Shaq. I love the commenst about how Ricky Davis respects Riley so much he wanted to play for him. Could we see a different Davis? The guy is capable of 25 points. Then you have a bunch of role players in JWill , Parker , Haslem , Dorrell Wright , even good ole Penny Hardaway...
So yeah I like another home dog that no one is counting on....
Not sure what I think about Houston and Utah yet....I wonder is everyone in love with Utah beating on an inferior opponent and is everyone down on Houston cause they remember they ATS loss rather the fact they led by dd's most of teh 2nd half.
I am so pissed at me! Why did I change to Seattle +11.5 from Denver -11.5 ?? Gonna cost me a 3 team parlay unless I get about 12 -0 run to end it ! Thats three 3 teamers I lost the past 2 days on dumb decisions.....hit a 4teamer though...okay 11-0 run....worse is I was just gonna play UND 5.5 Columbus...I do the parlays for the payout and hit a good amount but damn this one sucked...Oh well there is always tmrw..
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
NHL:
Florida +115
Chicago +165
Thoughts & Leans :
Over 5.5 +110 NJN
NJN -130 ( not as much as the total though)
Under 5 Dallas
NBA:
I didnt realize that in a haste I forgot to post my NBA..My mistake
Indiana +3.5 -120
Over 204 Indiana
1st H over 100 Indiana
Cle +3.5 -120
Under 186 Dallas
Memphis +6.5
NJ -2 -120
Over 217 Denver
Leans:
Over 201 Memphis
Toronto -7
1st Half Over Tor
Den 1st quarter -3.5
Parlay
Pacers +2 , Cavs +3 , Mem +6 ( 6 to 1 payout)
Sea +11.5 , Over 217.7 Den ,Und 5.5 Kings ( 6 to 1 payout)
Florida +115
Chicago +165
Thoughts & Leans :
Over 5.5 +110 NJN
NJN -130 ( not as much as the total though)
Under 5 Dallas
NBA:
I didnt realize that in a haste I forgot to post my NBA..My mistake
Indiana +3.5 -120
Over 204 Indiana
1st H over 100 Indiana
Cle +3.5 -120
Under 186 Dallas
Memphis +6.5
NJ -2 -120
Over 217 Denver
Leans:
Over 201 Memphis
Toronto -7
1st Half Over Tor
Den 1st quarter -3.5
Parlay
Pacers +2 , Cavs +3 , Mem +6 ( 6 to 1 payout)
Sea +11.5 , Over 217.7 Den ,Und 5.5 Kings ( 6 to 1 payout)
NBA Wed :
Running out but look at these:
Memphis +6 : Spurs have had issues play B2B games in the past. Last night it was commented on that Parker looked winded at times by the CZAR due to his lack of preseason minutes. Tough spot playing MEM who will look to run...
Over 201 Indy vs Wash : Pacers w/o key players which should actually destroy whatever little defense and rebounding INDY had. We should know that WIZ dont play defense....
Others :
Under 185 Dallas - Cle : Key players out , Cle offense limited IMO and Dallas has that defensive attitude under Avery Johnson.
Nuggets -11.5 : Depending on how healthy Durant and Green are. NBA debuts less then 100%....Nuggets should suprise this year. Hate big chalk but this could get ugly. Who is guarding melo?? Sea has nice depth and this could be real high scoring as well...
Running out but look at these:
Memphis +6 : Spurs have had issues play B2B games in the past. Last night it was commented on that Parker looked winded at times by the CZAR due to his lack of preseason minutes. Tough spot playing MEM who will look to run...
Over 201 Indy vs Wash : Pacers w/o key players which should actually destroy whatever little defense and rebounding INDY had. We should know that WIZ dont play defense....
Others :
Under 185 Dallas - Cle : Key players out , Cle offense limited IMO and Dallas has that defensive attitude under Avery Johnson.
Nuggets -11.5 : Depending on how healthy Durant and Green are. NBA debuts less then 100%....Nuggets should suprise this year. Hate big chalk but this could get ugly. Who is guarding melo?? Sea has nice depth and this could be real high scoring as well...
NFL Notes: Week 9
Carolina @ Tenny :
Looking back at last week I regret my decision to take Carolina. Simply cause getting it at +8 or better really should have been what I was looking for( seems marginal but its not). First they were catching 5 or 6 at Arizona. Which clearly was an inflated line by a point or two but not much different then what Indy was laying. Definetly a different situation Home after a bye versus on the road. Just a different was the level of opponent though.
The key injuries seem to be who will starting at QB for Carolina? Is it the ageless wonder Vinny Testaverde who couldn't finish the game due to achilles issues or David Carr who is playing with a fracture in his back and feels about 80%. Scary though Carr at 80% when 100% wasn't comforting!! For Tenny the passing game gets a big boost from Brandon Jones who is set to return. From what I understand Tenny receivers dropped 3 possible TD passes this week!
Carolina is 4-0 on the road( and ATS) while Tenny is 0-2 ATS (2-0 SU ) as favs but were laying more then a TD both times. Panthers are also 24-9-2 ATS away last 35 road games. So they are ROAD warriors for sure and embrace the DOG role. Probably because there formula has been sound defense and running the ball. If they execute tough to get blown out that way. That's what makes Tenny such a quality dog as well. They have VY as well but Car counters with Steve Smith who can return a punt or make a 60 yd TD catch changing the game in a blink.
Now I feel the Indy - Car final is extremely misleading. The key play of the game was after a INDY fumble @ there own 28 Car had the ball deep in Colts territory leading 7-3 with about 7 minutes before half. They drive it inside the 10 and the play that changed the game was a Bethea INT. Worst case you get 3 make it 10-3 or you go up 14-3. Finally Indy gets it going late hitting some big pass plays which is something CAR suddenly couldnt defend and was abused from this drive on. The other key was Vinny Testaverde NOT coming out and playing the 2nd H. I wonder if this teams believes a helluva alot more in Testaverde then Carr? We know Steve Smith does. So does that mean it was deflating for CAR to see Carr trot out there?? I think its a possibility. Matt Moore stay loose!!
From that point on the passing game was on point and INDY scored 3 second H TDS while CAR fumbled away any late chances. They had the ball at the 20 late but it was already to late when they fumbled. Then again at the end of regulation. Was it a sign Carr could move the ball or just a part of being down 31-7 playing a relaxed defense?? Not having such a good passing attack should play into CAR's favor IMO.
This is somewhat of an even matchup if you believe Vinny is 100% on Sunday. Thats the problem with 40+ athletes , the ease which minor injuries creep up and then the inability to shake them. I think CAR has run the ball better but its probably EVEN in that category with White and Henry emerging. UPDATE: Henry tested postive for steroids in a supplement he took. I assume he is eligible to play but you always wonder if a coach will impose his own suspension. Now its been said LenDale White is banged up and Chris Brown has been out a while. Suddenly the TENNY ground game is a concern as well. Both teams are tough on the run and both stink vs the pass but I think CAR may be weaker. Since the BYE check the TENNY offense where is it? They couldnt score vs TB, ATL or Oakland. The Houston game was Kerry Collins! I dont like favs who cant score......dont know who is scoring here...
CAR QB very important.
Cincy @ Buffalo
Until the Bengals get some LBs healthy they simply cant stop the run. So defensively they are screwed with an average secondary. They over commit to the run and you open up the passing game. Pitt had absolutely no problem moving the ball. After the opening drive only a INT stopped them from scoring on every drive they had.
Losman is back IN and Edwards OUT. The positive in that is Losman's ability to throw the deep ball and relationship with Lee Evans. If they can pound the ball with Lynch and Co then that deep pass should be there a coule times. What Edwards did so well was get all the recievers involved and move the chains. Thats been a huge issue for Losman.
I think a key play in the Buff/Jet game was the Leon Washington fumble deep in BUFF territory late 2nd Quarter. That would have allowed NY to go into the locker room with a lead after outplaying the Bills in the 1st Half.
I think Buffalo is great at the bend dont break defense. With Losman in there could be more turnovers and big pasing plays. For that reason OVER 43 looks enticing. Now clearly we must keep an eye on the RB situation is Watson or Rudi okay ??? If not who the hell runs the ball??? I think for Buffalo to win they must score cause Cincy will....
Denver @ Detriot
Big issue for DEN is John Lynch's health as it appears they are okay at the RB spot with Selvin Young. A puzzling loss for DEN on Monday night for sure. DET pulled out a nice win @ CHI but it just seems that teams GIVE wins to DET. Could Griese throw any more costly picks ?? Da bers thrw 3 INTS inside the opponents 25 and missed a FG!
Calvin Johnson should play but hold out on that till later in the week.
TRENDS:
Lions 2-10 ATS after allowing less then 15 pts and Denver is 17-8-2 ATS after scoring less then 15 pts.
Can DET hit the big play like GB did versus Denvers gambling (arrogant) corners?? Calvin Johnson is a huge part of the answer IMO.
Maybe I am blind but I still think DEN is the better team. There will be alot of yards versus bend dont break defenses. I still think DET can be exposed bya good passing team is DEN that team?
Green Bay @ KC :
Still see GB as medicore but they have changed from finding ways to LOSE to finding ways to WIN. Here I think KC is a tough opponent. There defense is very sound most teams cant crack 20 on them . I though GB looked like it struggled covering the TE's versus DEN and you have TD Tony Gonzalez! LJ should find some running room as GB run defense isnt as stout on the road.
Should be interesting if we can get Kennison to return. I just thing KC is the better team and playing at a tough home venue. I wont expect Grant to run for 100 yards here. The world saw Brett Favre work his magic which tends to create misguided public opinion or value in fading them! Plus KC is off a BYE and GB played on MNF in high altitude!
Jax @ New Orleans :
The Jags sort of stole one @ TB. Right the Saints are clicking though and this is a much tougher task. TB has struggled since losing Luke Petigout and Cadillac. Saints are tough to run against , what has hurt them was pass coverage. We know with Quinn Gray at QB the passing game is limited. With Gray winning at TB there will be a false sense of security I think with Jax here. There defense is also so-so in pass coverage . Brees looks like he is in a groove carving up what was a solid SF defense. The Saints changed the WR starters and all responded. The depth is there.
We know the Jags Inked Grady Jackson. Well we now know that Marcus Stroud wiull be suspended 4 games by the league. So while not immediately a starter he should see significant time!! In the end losing Stroud is a step back..
SD @ Minnesota :
Possibly Bollinger here or back to Tavaris Jackson. SCary vs a tough defense but SD has some injury issues...Phillips , Williams and Jammer. Willaims expects to play here and Phillips although gametime call sounds like he will play.
Both teams tough to run on especially da Vikes. However lets be real its LT we are talking about. The old we dont expect to shut him down but only hope to contain logic applies here. I think Chambers just makes Gates so much tougher to defend( and even vice versa). We know Minny can be had in the passing game.
The only was they cover is limiting SD points and holding them to FGS. Which on the road could happen. I could see 21-17 but not 31 -27.....I think from getting +10 @ Dallas to a TD home is extreme. It's all about the offense...for the Vikes mainly!!
SF @ Atlanta :
Hot Topic : Just how healthy are Alex Smith , D.Jackson and Frank Gore?? We know Smith played in a ton of pain so what does a week do for him?? SF started 2-0 and outside of BALT have been beat up 4 of the 5 past 5 games? Why should it get better? ATL can play some defense. ATL at times moves the ball with Harrington..at least they have 2 RBS to use. Suddenly you have to question SFs defense , plus the travel factor playing at 1 PM , and ATL is off a BYE!!
SF 35 pts last 4 games but three were home! ATL played fairly well in its 2 home games before the MNF Giant disaster which could have been more competitive.
My main issue is I had ATL -1.5 here.....
Wash @ NYJ :
call me STUPID but would you really lay points on the road with Wash? They have lost Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot could be less then 100%. Basically that diminishes there strongest asset there pass defense. Now before I give Kellon Clemens any MVP awards didnt he do a solid job @ Balt in his 1st career start? So why look at all at his mop up duty rather look at what a week of pratice will do for him. Pennington has really hurt the Jets offense. Not that Clemens will make them a powerhouse but maybe he wont continually leave points off the boards or throw horrible INTS!! Just maybe they will be forced to pound the rock with Jones and Washington leaving Clemens the opportunity to hit some longer passes when they load the box. Just maybe!
Wash has been pretty shitty on offense past 2 weeks and suddenly they have regressed. NY defensively is very average but so is that Wash offense. So why cant they keep to 20 pts or less?? For me I think its the fact that outside of the opener they had a chance to win every game this season! They either blew a lead in the 4th or failed to make that 1 play to take it or tie it up !!! Coles took a nice shot and fall but no word on his status. I think he plays and love Brad Smith as well....
You can certainly throw on the JETS but can Wash throw it ??
Ari @ TB
The TB injury bug continues: Spires possible achilles issues , lost Torry Cox and with Brian Kelly ailing that makes them even more banged up up at corner especially versus 2 WR sets , Clayton OUT still for awhile and we know about previous injuries.
While the running game showed promise you have to realize that Gruden must be losing faith. He had Garcia wing it 41 times last week!! They are just 1-3 Last 4 games....Zona may get Dansby back and Gandy ...which you need all the help you can get protecting Warner.
I think Zona's defense has been respectable. With that I would rather trust ZONA to outscore TB.....Zona 4-0 as road doggie this year!
Carolina @ Tenny :
Looking back at last week I regret my decision to take Carolina. Simply cause getting it at +8 or better really should have been what I was looking for( seems marginal but its not). First they were catching 5 or 6 at Arizona. Which clearly was an inflated line by a point or two but not much different then what Indy was laying. Definetly a different situation Home after a bye versus on the road. Just a different was the level of opponent though.
The key injuries seem to be who will starting at QB for Carolina? Is it the ageless wonder Vinny Testaverde who couldn't finish the game due to achilles issues or David Carr who is playing with a fracture in his back and feels about 80%. Scary though Carr at 80% when 100% wasn't comforting!! For Tenny the passing game gets a big boost from Brandon Jones who is set to return. From what I understand Tenny receivers dropped 3 possible TD passes this week!
Carolina is 4-0 on the road( and ATS) while Tenny is 0-2 ATS (2-0 SU ) as favs but were laying more then a TD both times. Panthers are also 24-9-2 ATS away last 35 road games. So they are ROAD warriors for sure and embrace the DOG role. Probably because there formula has been sound defense and running the ball. If they execute tough to get blown out that way. That's what makes Tenny such a quality dog as well. They have VY as well but Car counters with Steve Smith who can return a punt or make a 60 yd TD catch changing the game in a blink.
Now I feel the Indy - Car final is extremely misleading. The key play of the game was after a INDY fumble @ there own 28 Car had the ball deep in Colts territory leading 7-3 with about 7 minutes before half. They drive it inside the 10 and the play that changed the game was a Bethea INT. Worst case you get 3 make it 10-3 or you go up 14-3. Finally Indy gets it going late hitting some big pass plays which is something CAR suddenly couldnt defend and was abused from this drive on. The other key was Vinny Testaverde NOT coming out and playing the 2nd H. I wonder if this teams believes a helluva alot more in Testaverde then Carr? We know Steve Smith does. So does that mean it was deflating for CAR to see Carr trot out there?? I think its a possibility. Matt Moore stay loose!!
From that point on the passing game was on point and INDY scored 3 second H TDS while CAR fumbled away any late chances. They had the ball at the 20 late but it was already to late when they fumbled. Then again at the end of regulation. Was it a sign Carr could move the ball or just a part of being down 31-7 playing a relaxed defense?? Not having such a good passing attack should play into CAR's favor IMO.
This is somewhat of an even matchup if you believe Vinny is 100% on Sunday. Thats the problem with 40+ athletes , the ease which minor injuries creep up and then the inability to shake them. I think CAR has run the ball better but its probably EVEN in that category with White and Henry emerging. UPDATE: Henry tested postive for steroids in a supplement he took. I assume he is eligible to play but you always wonder if a coach will impose his own suspension. Now its been said LenDale White is banged up and Chris Brown has been out a while. Suddenly the TENNY ground game is a concern as well. Both teams are tough on the run and both stink vs the pass but I think CAR may be weaker. Since the BYE check the TENNY offense where is it? They couldnt score vs TB, ATL or Oakland. The Houston game was Kerry Collins! I dont like favs who cant score......dont know who is scoring here...
CAR QB very important.
Cincy @ Buffalo
Until the Bengals get some LBs healthy they simply cant stop the run. So defensively they are screwed with an average secondary. They over commit to the run and you open up the passing game. Pitt had absolutely no problem moving the ball. After the opening drive only a INT stopped them from scoring on every drive they had.
Losman is back IN and Edwards OUT. The positive in that is Losman's ability to throw the deep ball and relationship with Lee Evans. If they can pound the ball with Lynch and Co then that deep pass should be there a coule times. What Edwards did so well was get all the recievers involved and move the chains. Thats been a huge issue for Losman.
I think a key play in the Buff/Jet game was the Leon Washington fumble deep in BUFF territory late 2nd Quarter. That would have allowed NY to go into the locker room with a lead after outplaying the Bills in the 1st Half.
I think Buffalo is great at the bend dont break defense. With Losman in there could be more turnovers and big pasing plays. For that reason OVER 43 looks enticing. Now clearly we must keep an eye on the RB situation is Watson or Rudi okay ??? If not who the hell runs the ball??? I think for Buffalo to win they must score cause Cincy will....
Denver @ Detriot
Big issue for DEN is John Lynch's health as it appears they are okay at the RB spot with Selvin Young. A puzzling loss for DEN on Monday night for sure. DET pulled out a nice win @ CHI but it just seems that teams GIVE wins to DET. Could Griese throw any more costly picks ?? Da bers thrw 3 INTS inside the opponents 25 and missed a FG!
Calvin Johnson should play but hold out on that till later in the week.
TRENDS:
Lions 2-10 ATS after allowing less then 15 pts and Denver is 17-8-2 ATS after scoring less then 15 pts.
Can DET hit the big play like GB did versus Denvers gambling (arrogant) corners?? Calvin Johnson is a huge part of the answer IMO.
Maybe I am blind but I still think DEN is the better team. There will be alot of yards versus bend dont break defenses. I still think DET can be exposed bya good passing team is DEN that team?
Green Bay @ KC :
Still see GB as medicore but they have changed from finding ways to LOSE to finding ways to WIN. Here I think KC is a tough opponent. There defense is very sound most teams cant crack 20 on them . I though GB looked like it struggled covering the TE's versus DEN and you have TD Tony Gonzalez! LJ should find some running room as GB run defense isnt as stout on the road.
Should be interesting if we can get Kennison to return. I just thing KC is the better team and playing at a tough home venue. I wont expect Grant to run for 100 yards here. The world saw Brett Favre work his magic which tends to create misguided public opinion or value in fading them! Plus KC is off a BYE and GB played on MNF in high altitude!
Jax @ New Orleans :
The Jags sort of stole one @ TB. Right the Saints are clicking though and this is a much tougher task. TB has struggled since losing Luke Petigout and Cadillac. Saints are tough to run against , what has hurt them was pass coverage. We know with Quinn Gray at QB the passing game is limited. With Gray winning at TB there will be a false sense of security I think with Jax here. There defense is also so-so in pass coverage . Brees looks like he is in a groove carving up what was a solid SF defense. The Saints changed the WR starters and all responded. The depth is there.
We know the Jags Inked Grady Jackson. Well we now know that Marcus Stroud wiull be suspended 4 games by the league. So while not immediately a starter he should see significant time!! In the end losing Stroud is a step back..
SD @ Minnesota :
Possibly Bollinger here or back to Tavaris Jackson. SCary vs a tough defense but SD has some injury issues...Phillips , Williams and Jammer. Willaims expects to play here and Phillips although gametime call sounds like he will play.
Both teams tough to run on especially da Vikes. However lets be real its LT we are talking about. The old we dont expect to shut him down but only hope to contain logic applies here. I think Chambers just makes Gates so much tougher to defend( and even vice versa). We know Minny can be had in the passing game.
The only was they cover is limiting SD points and holding them to FGS. Which on the road could happen. I could see 21-17 but not 31 -27.....I think from getting +10 @ Dallas to a TD home is extreme. It's all about the offense...for the Vikes mainly!!
SF @ Atlanta :
Hot Topic : Just how healthy are Alex Smith , D.Jackson and Frank Gore?? We know Smith played in a ton of pain so what does a week do for him?? SF started 2-0 and outside of BALT have been beat up 4 of the 5 past 5 games? Why should it get better? ATL can play some defense. ATL at times moves the ball with Harrington..at least they have 2 RBS to use. Suddenly you have to question SFs defense , plus the travel factor playing at 1 PM , and ATL is off a BYE!!
SF 35 pts last 4 games but three were home! ATL played fairly well in its 2 home games before the MNF Giant disaster which could have been more competitive.
My main issue is I had ATL -1.5 here.....
Wash @ NYJ :
call me STUPID but would you really lay points on the road with Wash? They have lost Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot could be less then 100%. Basically that diminishes there strongest asset there pass defense. Now before I give Kellon Clemens any MVP awards didnt he do a solid job @ Balt in his 1st career start? So why look at all at his mop up duty rather look at what a week of pratice will do for him. Pennington has really hurt the Jets offense. Not that Clemens will make them a powerhouse but maybe he wont continually leave points off the boards or throw horrible INTS!! Just maybe they will be forced to pound the rock with Jones and Washington leaving Clemens the opportunity to hit some longer passes when they load the box. Just maybe!
Wash has been pretty shitty on offense past 2 weeks and suddenly they have regressed. NY defensively is very average but so is that Wash offense. So why cant they keep to 20 pts or less?? For me I think its the fact that outside of the opener they had a chance to win every game this season! They either blew a lead in the 4th or failed to make that 1 play to take it or tie it up !!! Coles took a nice shot and fall but no word on his status. I think he plays and love Brad Smith as well....
You can certainly throw on the JETS but can Wash throw it ??
Ari @ TB
The TB injury bug continues: Spires possible achilles issues , lost Torry Cox and with Brian Kelly ailing that makes them even more banged up up at corner especially versus 2 WR sets , Clayton OUT still for awhile and we know about previous injuries.
While the running game showed promise you have to realize that Gruden must be losing faith. He had Garcia wing it 41 times last week!! They are just 1-3 Last 4 games....Zona may get Dansby back and Gandy ...which you need all the help you can get protecting Warner.
I think Zona's defense has been respectable. With that I would rather trust ZONA to outscore TB.....Zona 4-0 as road doggie this year!
Last night got me back on track . My only mistakes and not just cause they were losses was playing the UND 5.5 @ Minnesota and Over 197(196.5) @ LAL. Now I almost got bailed out for a nice payout when the Kobe's stormed back and tied it @ 92. I would have expected OT to cash my over plays. So my mistake was playing the NHL total cause Minny had some scoring threats out. Well we know that players tend to step up in time of injuries and the logic is key players out scoring will decrease. I like to stay away from that thinking though and be contrarian. In LAL with Kobe less then 100% , Odom out and regardless of a new Houston outlook you still have Ming slowing down the pace. So parlaying it with UND DET and Over Port not so bad but a separate play was not so wise. Otherwise solid nite only wishing I had the SA / Port over for more.
Looking around this morning I found some interesting comments. They were written by Alex Roslin on the Seeking Alpha Blog. Just using this to illustrate how the world of trading is so similar to what has now become a SPORTS GAMBLING market. He was talking about his outlook on commodities ( spec gold and silver) and where he saw them going near term.
Both trades are based on fading the small traders in gold and silver, as reported in the free Commitments of Traders data issued weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. I've developed a system to trade opposite to the "dumb money" small traders when they hit specific extremes of bullishness and bearishness in their net futures and options positions. Last May, the gold small traders hit a bearish extreme that gave me a buy signal for XGD. And in July, the silver small traders followed suit with a similarly bearish position—giving me a buy for SLV.
So while I disagree with the common theory of fading the "public" in sports. Which every Tom , Dick and Harry is into these days. Cause I dont think they approach it the right way. I HAVE always believed in being contrarian to public thinking and logic. The difference is you can't look at betting %'s and get an accurate picture of public opinion. My opinions are developed differently. However you can get a pulse of how the public market which to me is non-pro gamblers and average sports fans feel about a game. Then decide if an incorrect market sentiment is creating a value opportunity.
So an example of fading the PUBLIC for me was taking LAL last nite. In my opinion public opinion had inflated the line and distorted the reality of the situation. That to me creates a value situation. To explain how LAL would keep up with Houston last nite I couldn't tell you pregame. However in the end I felt they would find away to lose by 3,4,5 points. Funny thing about these type situations is you rarely see the upset just the ATS situation. Just alot of backdoor covers...
Just thought he made some interesting comments that drew clear parallels. Nice work !
Looking around this morning I found some interesting comments. They were written by Alex Roslin on the Seeking Alpha Blog. Just using this to illustrate how the world of trading is so similar to what has now become a SPORTS GAMBLING market. He was talking about his outlook on commodities ( spec gold and silver) and where he saw them going near term.
Both trades are based on fading the small traders in gold and silver, as reported in the free Commitments of Traders data issued weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. I've developed a system to trade opposite to the "dumb money" small traders when they hit specific extremes of bullishness and bearishness in their net futures and options positions. Last May, the gold small traders hit a bearish extreme that gave me a buy signal for XGD. And in July, the silver small traders followed suit with a similarly bearish position—giving me a buy for SLV.
So while I disagree with the common theory of fading the "public" in sports. Which every Tom , Dick and Harry is into these days. Cause I dont think they approach it the right way. I HAVE always believed in being contrarian to public thinking and logic. The difference is you can't look at betting %'s and get an accurate picture of public opinion. My opinions are developed differently. However you can get a pulse of how the public market which to me is non-pro gamblers and average sports fans feel about a game. Then decide if an incorrect market sentiment is creating a value opportunity.
So an example of fading the PUBLIC for me was taking LAL last nite. In my opinion public opinion had inflated the line and distorted the reality of the situation. That to me creates a value situation. To explain how LAL would keep up with Houston last nite I couldn't tell you pregame. However in the end I felt they would find away to lose by 3,4,5 points. Funny thing about these type situations is you rarely see the upset just the ATS situation. Just alot of backdoor covers...
Just thought he made some interesting comments that drew clear parallels. Nice work !
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
NHL:
Under 5.5 Minnesota
Atlanta +165
Away Goals +145
Under 28.5 -120 Grand Salami (Strongest)
Leans :
Pitt +100
Under 6 -105 ATL
Under 5.5 Det -115
Later :
-Still looking at Cal vs Nash. Strong move on the total tends to be the correct move. Lean Doggie..
-Will be playing DET and Und in a parlay with Over Spurs and Jazz. Maybe UNDer5.5 alone as well..
-Think STL in a close one and Und 5.5 just leans though
NBA:
Over 190 Portland
Utah 1st H +1-120 (1/2 size)
Over 101.5 -115 Spurs Team Total
Over 197 Houston
1st Q Over 47 Spurs
Lakers +6 -120
Parlays:
1)Red Wings ML , Und 5.5 Det , Utah ML , and Over 190 Portland
2)Und 5.5 Det , Over 196.5 Hou and Over 190 Port
Strong Lean :
Lakers +5.5
Lean :
SA -13
SA -4.5 1st Quarter
GL
Under 5.5 Minnesota
Atlanta +165
Away Goals +145
Under 28.5 -120 Grand Salami (Strongest)
Leans :
Pitt +100
Under 6 -105 ATL
Under 5.5 Det -115
Later :
-Still looking at Cal vs Nash. Strong move on the total tends to be the correct move. Lean Doggie..
-Will be playing DET and Und in a parlay with Over Spurs and Jazz. Maybe UNDer5.5 alone as well..
-Think STL in a close one and Und 5.5 just leans though
NBA:
Over 190 Portland
Utah 1st H +1-120 (1/2 size)
Over 101.5 -115 Spurs Team Total
Over 197 Houston
1st Q Over 47 Spurs
Lakers +6 -120
Parlays:
1)Red Wings ML , Und 5.5 Det , Utah ML , and Over 190 Portland
2)Und 5.5 Det , Over 196.5 Hou and Over 190 Port
Strong Lean :
Lakers +5.5
Lean :
SA -13
SA -4.5 1st Quarter
GL
Monday, October 29, 2007
What can you do? Denver ABSOLUTELY should have won but they didnt deserve to win. Dumb founding fumble by Cutler on the 2yd line . They got screwed on a BS holding call on the Selvin Young run inside the 5 yard line and then please explain the last two plays by DENVER inside the 4 yard line? Are you really playing for OT inside the 5 yard line vs Favre? Sometimes you have to shake your head. Two Hail Marys and who lotta luck for GB......
Again disgusted when you have the ball on the 3rd yd line and Scheffler is beast ! It truly pays to be blind. You take GB 2nd Half and you get paid.....wow!
I just hate to lose and GB allowed DEN to comeback and still won. That almost NEVER happens. GB allowed us back in settling for FGS twice but at least it was there players making mistakes NOT a head coach or penalty that wasn't....
Actually I guess DEN did get what they deserve cause they clearly outplayed GB for 3 of the 4 quarters but were still losing and settled for OT. Nice work by Favre but it's so much hype. Take away his last hail mary the key play of the 2nd H he phantom fumbled. I applaud his WRs and the play calling but what exactly did he do? ZIP.
Again disgusted when you have the ball on the 3rd yd line and Scheffler is beast ! It truly pays to be blind. You take GB 2nd Half and you get paid.....wow!
I just hate to lose and GB allowed DEN to comeback and still won. That almost NEVER happens. GB allowed us back in settling for FGS twice but at least it was there players making mistakes NOT a head coach or penalty that wasn't....
Actually I guess DEN did get what they deserve cause they clearly outplayed GB for 3 of the 4 quarters but were still losing and settled for OT. Nice work by Favre but it's so much hype. Take away his last hail mary the key play of the 2nd H he phantom fumbled. I applaud his WRs and the play calling but what exactly did he do? ZIP.
Crazy 1st Half. It amazes me how quickly the tide turns. Except for one big play in the 1st quarter that really should have been about 40 yards shorter. The safety should have tackled James Jones IMO instead of performing like a ballerina spinning around aimlessly. It was the GB defense that had no answer for the DEN offense. Then a fluke fumble on the 2yd line changed the entire complex of the game.
Now they start with a stop and give it away witha holding call. DEN looks like ass and cant capture or recapture the momentum.....amazes me ...anymore DEN injuries?
Now they start with a stop and give it away witha holding call. DEN looks like ass and cant capture or recapture the momentum.....amazes me ...anymore DEN injuries?
The amount of disgust from this SUNDAY will take along time to pass for me . Worked so hard all week to scrap together a nice week and then today happened. Went from 14-4 run to couldn't hit a damn thing in a blink! I can't remember being so off in any sport on any given day in my life. Everything that could go wrong did. Including not being able to play what I thought was the easiest play of the day...Will there be a run in the 1st Inning Bos/Col?? @ -110. Cook hadn't started in 2 months , supposedly got smacked around in his intersquad / tune up start the other day, and you had unproven Lester facing some quality bats vs COL. Of course my book takes props off the board about 5 -10 minutes before 1st pitch. Contemplating and procrastinating(cause I thought it was a no-brainer) how much I would hit it for I missed it. Just like everything today. Simply missed the ball....DISGUSTING!!!
No excuses but it seems every time I don't sleep well and look at the NFL for just one day I do poorly. It's over and done with now but my decisions sucked! I see this HERD mentality out there in that people look at every game as way to outsmart the books rather then getting down to handicapping the game. For sports books it's about beating YOU over the long haul. They are putting out lines not try to trick you but simply using the pulse of the public sector. For example everyone seemed to like STL because they were a DOG. However the key for me was the return home and of key offensive players. Regardless that was really about losing Stephen Jackson. SJ got hurt and Leonard failed in two attempts to convert 3rd and 1 then 4th and 1, including on the 16yd line late. I made the wrong play but I think its one of those rare times I lost and felt good about my decision. Though STL defense played worse then expected.
GB @ Denver :
Should be real interesting if Travis Henry doesn't play. Not cause he is playing so well just cause he is a proven running back. On a team missing stars Javon Walker , Rod Smith (hasn't played all year) , it's IRON MAN center Tom Nalen , even Mike Bell who has had a little success. Selvin Young should surprise here. Remember how Shanahan raved about him in the preseason. Just guessing that Champ doesn't play tmrw but hope I am mistaken. Dre Bly should be okay if he played last week with the same injury.
First thing is I don't see how the GB passing attack is better then Pitt's at this point. Big Ben has 13 TD's in 6 games and a 7.8 YPA. Favre has 9 TD's in 5 games and a 6.9 YPA. Now Favre does avg more yards but thats cause he is winging it 41 times per game compared to Ben's 32. So the chatter about the GB passing attack is BullShit. Look at the last 6 quarters of GB football what impresses you? The fact they collapsed vs Chi at home or needed a fumble recovery for a TD to win by 3 vs Wash at home?? Brett was 19 of 37 with 188 yards and 2 INTS vs Wash @ home. The 2nd Half vs Chi he had 79 yards and the team managed 73 yards net on 28plays. I believe that means he has 4 Ints vs NO TDs in that stretch. The DEN weakness has been slowing the run but they did a decent job vs Willie Parker and GBs guys are inconsistent at best. So in 6 quarters the great GB attack at home has ZERO TD passes.
There will be alot of chatter about the poor DEN home ATS record. Um does anyone realize it's because they had such a long of history of being a tough destination that when there play declined there lines really didn't. A comparable reference is Coors being an offensive haven but when it stop did you stop seeing double digit totals? No , the lines makers understand that with long term trends it takes awhile for the public to catch up. Now that everyone is aware of the trend to me the public has caught on. This will actually keep DEN lines soft in the short term. That's how the cycle works: over reliance on past level of play blinded people to actual level of play , when everyone catches on there bounce back tends to be in progress , in this you have a team playing over inflated lines and eventually fading on soft lines. We had the Plummer struggles and switch to Cutler did you see DEN as a home dog often?? This team was -3.5 vs Jax this season. Hopefully no one thinks GB is better then JAX.
You have the AFC vs NFC angle as well. All I see going for GB is the fact they are a BYE. Which in the past they have done well after some rest. However mostly tight games with Minny or Miami. However if you watched the DEN game last week did you see a smash mouth football game or an aerial attack by both?? I vote the latter. So not concerned about fatigue for them . Running passing routes all nite long with a thin WR corps could be an issue.
I think past history is all that is keeping this total at 42.5 / 43. Where are the points coming from especially if Henry sits.....Even if he doesn't I like DENVER. However hoping that it takes the line down a few notches....
Denver and Lean on the UNDER.
GB was given a win by Philly when Favre had a 58 QB rating . In the 2nd H @ NY he caught fire producing 3 straight 100+ QB ratings. However we know Minny and SD have great run defenses coupled with less then effective pass defenses. His 83 QB rating vs CHI was due mainly to his 1st H play and then last game it was 43. Oh and his 3 good games 8 TDs and 1 INT compared to 1TD and 5 INTS in the rest.
All Jay Cutler did was drive his team 44 yards to set up the game winning FG last week. I can see the decline in GB 's play which is coupled with the decline in there lines. Only -3 vs Chi and Wash at home...I would guess DEN is better then both of those teams..... Really that is saying that the road teams are at least of equal if not better quality then GB....
Tidbits:
GB 0-5 in DEN
Lost only Favre game in '99 @ Denver
Favre 17-15 on MNF but 0-5 last 5
Den 10-3 Invesco on MNF
No excuses but it seems every time I don't sleep well and look at the NFL for just one day I do poorly. It's over and done with now but my decisions sucked! I see this HERD mentality out there in that people look at every game as way to outsmart the books rather then getting down to handicapping the game. For sports books it's about beating YOU over the long haul. They are putting out lines not try to trick you but simply using the pulse of the public sector. For example everyone seemed to like STL because they were a DOG. However the key for me was the return home and of key offensive players. Regardless that was really about losing Stephen Jackson. SJ got hurt and Leonard failed in two attempts to convert 3rd and 1 then 4th and 1, including on the 16yd line late. I made the wrong play but I think its one of those rare times I lost and felt good about my decision. Though STL defense played worse then expected.
GB @ Denver :
Should be real interesting if Travis Henry doesn't play. Not cause he is playing so well just cause he is a proven running back. On a team missing stars Javon Walker , Rod Smith (hasn't played all year) , it's IRON MAN center Tom Nalen , even Mike Bell who has had a little success. Selvin Young should surprise here. Remember how Shanahan raved about him in the preseason. Just guessing that Champ doesn't play tmrw but hope I am mistaken. Dre Bly should be okay if he played last week with the same injury.
First thing is I don't see how the GB passing attack is better then Pitt's at this point. Big Ben has 13 TD's in 6 games and a 7.8 YPA. Favre has 9 TD's in 5 games and a 6.9 YPA. Now Favre does avg more yards but thats cause he is winging it 41 times per game compared to Ben's 32. So the chatter about the GB passing attack is BullShit. Look at the last 6 quarters of GB football what impresses you? The fact they collapsed vs Chi at home or needed a fumble recovery for a TD to win by 3 vs Wash at home?? Brett was 19 of 37 with 188 yards and 2 INTS vs Wash @ home. The 2nd Half vs Chi he had 79 yards and the team managed 73 yards net on 28plays. I believe that means he has 4 Ints vs NO TDs in that stretch. The DEN weakness has been slowing the run but they did a decent job vs Willie Parker and GBs guys are inconsistent at best. So in 6 quarters the great GB attack at home has ZERO TD passes.
There will be alot of chatter about the poor DEN home ATS record. Um does anyone realize it's because they had such a long of history of being a tough destination that when there play declined there lines really didn't. A comparable reference is Coors being an offensive haven but when it stop did you stop seeing double digit totals? No , the lines makers understand that with long term trends it takes awhile for the public to catch up. Now that everyone is aware of the trend to me the public has caught on. This will actually keep DEN lines soft in the short term. That's how the cycle works: over reliance on past level of play blinded people to actual level of play , when everyone catches on there bounce back tends to be in progress , in this you have a team playing over inflated lines and eventually fading on soft lines. We had the Plummer struggles and switch to Cutler did you see DEN as a home dog often?? This team was -3.5 vs Jax this season. Hopefully no one thinks GB is better then JAX.
You have the AFC vs NFC angle as well. All I see going for GB is the fact they are a BYE. Which in the past they have done well after some rest. However mostly tight games with Minny or Miami. However if you watched the DEN game last week did you see a smash mouth football game or an aerial attack by both?? I vote the latter. So not concerned about fatigue for them . Running passing routes all nite long with a thin WR corps could be an issue.
I think past history is all that is keeping this total at 42.5 / 43. Where are the points coming from especially if Henry sits.....Even if he doesn't I like DENVER. However hoping that it takes the line down a few notches....
Denver and Lean on the UNDER.
GB was given a win by Philly when Favre had a 58 QB rating . In the 2nd H @ NY he caught fire producing 3 straight 100+ QB ratings. However we know Minny and SD have great run defenses coupled with less then effective pass defenses. His 83 QB rating vs CHI was due mainly to his 1st H play and then last game it was 43. Oh and his 3 good games 8 TDs and 1 INT compared to 1TD and 5 INTS in the rest.
All Jay Cutler did was drive his team 44 yards to set up the game winning FG last week. I can see the decline in GB 's play which is coupled with the decline in there lines. Only -3 vs Chi and Wash at home...I would guess DEN is better then both of those teams..... Really that is saying that the road teams are at least of equal if not better quality then GB....
Tidbits:
GB 0-5 in DEN
Lost only Favre game in '99 @ Denver
Favre 17-15 on MNF but 0-5 last 5
Den 10-3 Invesco on MNF
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Today :
Top Tier
Rams +3.5 -120 / ML +140
Panthers +7.5 -120
Jets -2.5
SF +2(try for +3) / ML +115
Second Tier
Eagles ML
Houston +9 or better
Strong Leans
Pitt -4
Jags +4
Bears -5.5
Totals
Under 48 Washington
Team Total
Pitt ove 26.5 -120
Leans
Over 45 SD
Under 38 Minny
Under 20 1st H Oakland
4 Team Parlay
Carolina +7 , STL +3 , NYJ ML , and SF ML
3 Team Teaser
Steelers +6 , Bears +4.5 , NYG Even
Totals Discussion :
46 STL : Feel this is high. First we dont who balanced the CLE offense will be if Jamal Lewis can't go. I think STL will try to balance the attack. Thinking 24-21 what to expect. The Rams defense isnt as bad as it looks even though they Little. Wouldnt take the UNDER cause you could have alot of miscues for easy points but alot miscues that could take points away sort of like NMST and Hawaii! It seems the big play has left the STL offense.
45.5 Chi : The DET defense has been to scary to think Under. Looking at what other teams have done would suspect CHI gets 28 points here and somehow the Lions will get 20.
44 Car : Prefer the 1st H under. Carolina is going to run the ball heavily IMO. Indy really has long time consuming drives some which may end up in 3 points today....10-7 @ half??
47.5 NYG/Mia : Weather is a concern supposedly raining some there with a wet field. The Mia defense is bad and if NY plays up to its capabilities it should score 31++. NYG defense is good but still think Miami can score some with Lemon at the helm...35-14????
48 Cincy: Not crazy about this number. You have Cincys low of the season being 45 pts. We know Pitt will score here think they get 28 or so. Concerned cause of the fact they should run the ball alot but Tomlin likes the big play. Cutler showed you can pass on the Steelers. We know Cincy can wing it. If I had to would go over...
GL
Top Tier
Rams +3.5 -120 / ML +140
Panthers +7.5 -120
Jets -2.5
SF +2(try for +3) / ML +115
Second Tier
Eagles ML
Houston +9 or better
Strong Leans
Pitt -4
Jags +4
Bears -5.5
Totals
Under 48 Washington
Team Total
Pitt ove 26.5 -120
Leans
Over 45 SD
Under 38 Minny
Under 20 1st H Oakland
4 Team Parlay
Carolina +7 , STL +3 , NYJ ML , and SF ML
3 Team Teaser
Steelers +6 , Bears +4.5 , NYG Even
Totals Discussion :
46 STL : Feel this is high. First we dont who balanced the CLE offense will be if Jamal Lewis can't go. I think STL will try to balance the attack. Thinking 24-21 what to expect. The Rams defense isnt as bad as it looks even though they Little. Wouldnt take the UNDER cause you could have alot of miscues for easy points but alot miscues that could take points away sort of like NMST and Hawaii! It seems the big play has left the STL offense.
45.5 Chi : The DET defense has been to scary to think Under. Looking at what other teams have done would suspect CHI gets 28 points here and somehow the Lions will get 20.
44 Car : Prefer the 1st H under. Carolina is going to run the ball heavily IMO. Indy really has long time consuming drives some which may end up in 3 points today....10-7 @ half??
47.5 NYG/Mia : Weather is a concern supposedly raining some there with a wet field. The Mia defense is bad and if NY plays up to its capabilities it should score 31++. NYG defense is good but still think Miami can score some with Lemon at the helm...35-14????
48 Cincy: Not crazy about this number. You have Cincys low of the season being 45 pts. We know Pitt will score here think they get 28 or so. Concerned cause of the fact they should run the ball alot but Tomlin likes the big play. Cutler showed you can pass on the Steelers. We know Cincy can wing it. If I had to would go over...
GL
4 PM starts :
Buffalo @ NYJ :
For me the value in Buffalo was the fact they played hard and were home dogs against teams that had poor offenses or were overvalued. Now the Jets have found ways to lose and have actually been a solid 1st H bet. They have to find a way to win a game and BUF is the answer IMO. The defense drops a few grades on the road while Edwards and the Offense still havent produced much especially last 2 games. So how can you expect to win if your defense is NOT a shutdown defense and your offense is small ball type even with Lee Evans?? Prefer the over here cause Jets should crack the 20's...Tends to be a home dominanted series..the Jets are clearly down but away from home I owuld suspect BUF is one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL...
Houston @ SD:
The whole situation in SD leads one to believe while SD wants to play great for the community they have been distracted all week. Both defenses weaknesses are the opponents strengths SD run vs Hos run defense and Hou pass offense vs SD pass defense. SCARY! So there should be points here but I hate the fact HOU is off a shootout type final score. Bottomline is SD to me hasnt played well in the games they were listed as big chalk. They are better but not where they should be.
Jax @ TB :
Dont see much value in this game at all. We all know the TB offense has been sluggish and they might not be able to run the ball at all here. Quinn Gray is a mystery. I know he isnt as bad as the MNF outing. The guy saw no xhibition playing time bewteen a family illness and the fact he was the third QB when the other were fighting for the #1 job. So I think his reps were limited. Jax can run the ball and TB can be soft vs the run. Gimme the points if I have to pick....
Saints @ SF :
Smith returns and that is an upgrade. The Niner defense has been real solid at home and NO offense isnt impressing me. Simply put I dont see the Saints having value as road chalk. SF getting healthy though DJ may miss they should find ways to score versus such a poor defense. Home doggie with a good defense....
Wash @ NE:
Few reasons to fade NE but the INDY game is next. Wash played a real vanilla offense last week so the GURU couldnt get a read on what the Skins will do. You can run a bit on NE and that is beneficial to Wash . The Skins have a pass defense unlike Dallas and Miami. The pats needed a frontdoor cover vs NE and I think Wash is just the same challenge. Hopefully we see +17 here but take the UNDER cause NE may keep it simple as well....
Plays :
Jets -2.5
Houston +9 try to get +10 or better
SF ML ( +3 if available)
Lean : Wash and Jax
Totals :
Under 48 NE
Lean : Over 45 SD
GL more to come tmrw..
Buffalo @ NYJ :
For me the value in Buffalo was the fact they played hard and were home dogs against teams that had poor offenses or were overvalued. Now the Jets have found ways to lose and have actually been a solid 1st H bet. They have to find a way to win a game and BUF is the answer IMO. The defense drops a few grades on the road while Edwards and the Offense still havent produced much especially last 2 games. So how can you expect to win if your defense is NOT a shutdown defense and your offense is small ball type even with Lee Evans?? Prefer the over here cause Jets should crack the 20's...Tends to be a home dominanted series..the Jets are clearly down but away from home I owuld suspect BUF is one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL...
Houston @ SD:
The whole situation in SD leads one to believe while SD wants to play great for the community they have been distracted all week. Both defenses weaknesses are the opponents strengths SD run vs Hos run defense and Hou pass offense vs SD pass defense. SCARY! So there should be points here but I hate the fact HOU is off a shootout type final score. Bottomline is SD to me hasnt played well in the games they were listed as big chalk. They are better but not where they should be.
Jax @ TB :
Dont see much value in this game at all. We all know the TB offense has been sluggish and they might not be able to run the ball at all here. Quinn Gray is a mystery. I know he isnt as bad as the MNF outing. The guy saw no xhibition playing time bewteen a family illness and the fact he was the third QB when the other were fighting for the #1 job. So I think his reps were limited. Jax can run the ball and TB can be soft vs the run. Gimme the points if I have to pick....
Saints @ SF :
Smith returns and that is an upgrade. The Niner defense has been real solid at home and NO offense isnt impressing me. Simply put I dont see the Saints having value as road chalk. SF getting healthy though DJ may miss they should find ways to score versus such a poor defense. Home doggie with a good defense....
Wash @ NE:
Few reasons to fade NE but the INDY game is next. Wash played a real vanilla offense last week so the GURU couldnt get a read on what the Skins will do. You can run a bit on NE and that is beneficial to Wash . The Skins have a pass defense unlike Dallas and Miami. The pats needed a frontdoor cover vs NE and I think Wash is just the same challenge. Hopefully we see +17 here but take the UNDER cause NE may keep it simple as well....
Plays :
Jets -2.5
Houston +9 try to get +10 or better
SF ML ( +3 if available)
Lean : Wash and Jax
Totals :
Under 48 NE
Lean : Over 45 SD
GL more to come tmrw..
NFL Sunday
Browns @ Rams :
Since the switch to Derek Anderson the Browns have been a different team especially on offense. The Rams have been a complete disaster mostly due to a ridiculous amount of injuries. Especially along the OL. I understand why we should be down on the Rams but this is not a road game and that's where the majority of awful performances have come versus quality teams and defenses( underachieving SEA included IMO). For the most part I don't see a team that has quit. Your OL will naturally play better at home even with inferior players. Now you get CLE who in 6 games has just 6 sacks. Last week a big problem was the play by the OL but SEA as we know is one of the toughest venues to play at. You have the return of Stephen Jackson which is obviously Huge! Though they should also have all there WR's as well with Bennett and Looker healthy. CLE has not proven able to stop the run. 72carries for 333yards in its two road games vs Oak and NE. I have to factor in how well they played vs ARI with Bulger and SJ out. They literally gave 3 TD's away that day and still lost by only 3. The 3 mistakes were the Edge James fumble into the end zone recovered by an OL , the pick 6 by Frerotte and the penalty that gave Warner one more play before halftime. Even with CLE's improvements I don't see them as road chalk cause they make alot of mistakes still and its not easy to overcome on the road usually. Wilkins troubling me with his kicking woes to date. Lewis is a game time decision and STL has shown some improvement slowing the run. Your gonna see alot of cappers taking the DOG cause its the sexy thing to do today to try and outsmart Vegas. In one of my pools with 50 people 62% are Cle FWIW....also in STL favor here is the recent return of both of there starting CBs.
Det @ Chi :
I feel like the Lions are in a similar position to STL except there home play has been very good compared to marginally good. Both have been scary bad on the road . The Lions have been atrocious on the road. Remember how Philly carved them up and how Wash put up 34 on them. Well don't forget how in the Opener they opened a huge lead only to watch OAK crawl into the game. There defense has been nearly non exist ant on the road. How bout QBs 74/95 for about 900 yards in 3 games with 92c for 383yds. Whole lotta plays run against the defense on the road..
Sure the Bears have issues on defense and in the running game. I simply couldn't back that DET defense on the road. You know CHI wants to avenge there sloppy loss @ DET a few weeks back. Just ask Tommy Harris. With such an odd number the backdoor will probably be wide open. There is no way in hell you can only make Chi -3 here , so that means even -4 is probably cheap still. On the flip Det +7 gets way to much Det money. So they seemed to split it the middle at -5.5. Personally just not liking Kitna's play lately and unsure of what to expect from Kevin Jones here. The injury list abit concerning for CHI. However Shaun Rogers may be banged up , a starting safety and CB are questionable for Det , and DE Edwards is doubtful. CHI leaky defense was decent last week. The issues are somewhat overblown cause it was 1 bad quarter @ Det , really just a bad 2nd H vs Dal that was worse then it looked , and AP had a helluva day. Kevin Jones and Co probably wont be drawing many AP comparisons. I see no value in DET but am weary still to back the Bears.....
Indy @ Carolina
Tough spot for the Colts here. Short week after a psychical MNF game in Jax with NE on deck. Not to mention Carolina rested off a BYE focused solely on this game especially being winless at home. Really how different is CAR then JAX? I dont want say this the wrong way but Jax really fucked up there first few drives with bad play calling. They should have some points on the board early before Garrard left. Why they decided to pass the ball so much I'll never know. With Testaverde you can expect a steady dose of runs . Indy is w/o Harrison and Keiaho now as well. Have to like this big HOME doggie...Panthers always attractive as a dog and see a 23-20 game...if Carolina sticks to it they can run and hopefully Vinny takes what the Cover 2 defense gives him. For me just a great spot for Carolina. Indy somewhat banged up on short week in look ahead spot after impressive MNF win. The line is inflated even with Vinny at the helm.
Giants @ Dolphins
Hard to figure how London figures into the equation to be honest. Think the crowd will be somewhat split . What I do know is the Miami defense keeps getting worse. Brandon Jacobs should be able to pound the ball with Zach Thomas out and the secondary has been soft and suffered more lossed versus NE. NY has to guard against a letdown and they managed that versus SF who has a decent defense but no offense. This Miami team is really bare with Brown and Chambers gone. That was there playmakers. I give Miami alot of credit cause they always play hard but now the losses are beyond ridiculous IMO...
10.1 YPA last 3 games.....hello Plax !!! The whole fatigue issue is a concern though...Sure its a big number on a neutral field but what does Miami have going for it ???? They were just catching 16 at home and getting crushed at half !!
Oakland @ Tenny
Okay so OAK cannot find ways to score vs good defenses and Tenny shuts down the run. Not an attractive number to lay but Oak doesn't win on the road often . The early start for OAK always a concern. Right now I just cant be excited for OAK to crack 14 points...Titan offense isn't much to speak off but they did explode last week....and may have found something in Chris Henry @ RB . Definitely a game not interested in playing but don't see OAk as attractive as many others. You know Tennys defense is tough (minus the 4th quarter last week) and we know Culpepper takes bad sacks and is prone to costly or timely mistakes. Seems like a bad recipe. It's all about the offense here for Tenny. They shutdown ATL last home game but did zip with the ball. With VY coming back maybe a 1st H under is attractive....
Philly @ Minny
Vikings way to dependent on AP for offense but the change to Holcomb should help. Personally while Minny has a sound defense they struggle versus the pass which Philly will look to do with LJ Smith healthy again. With Philly struggling for points and Philly playing fairly sound defense I'll settle for 20-17 here Eags...just think Minny lacks the offense firepower here.. especially since Philly can stop the run. I am hoping the total creeps up to 38 again ...
Pitt @ Cincy
Steelers have struggled on the road to date. I am sure some people are down on them after the DEN game but Cincys defense is still a mess. Even last year Pitt was -6 @ Cincy and I think this Steeler team is better and Cincy a step below..Pitt should just pound the ball opening up the game for Big Ben . Cincy just cant sit back and try to hit big plays...the Jets gave them that game last week....pound Willie Parker and Big Ben should feast....
Plays :
STL +3.5
Car +7.5
Philly ML
Lean:
NYG -9.5 (fatigue a concern with such a big number )
Bears -5.5 ( defensive injuries concern me)
Pitt -3.5 ( never a fan of road chalk)
Tenn -7 ( even with OAK as a solid dog and Tenny a poor fav)
Totals :
Not really interested in any yet......
Later games to come.......GL
Browns @ Rams :
Since the switch to Derek Anderson the Browns have been a different team especially on offense. The Rams have been a complete disaster mostly due to a ridiculous amount of injuries. Especially along the OL. I understand why we should be down on the Rams but this is not a road game and that's where the majority of awful performances have come versus quality teams and defenses( underachieving SEA included IMO). For the most part I don't see a team that has quit. Your OL will naturally play better at home even with inferior players. Now you get CLE who in 6 games has just 6 sacks. Last week a big problem was the play by the OL but SEA as we know is one of the toughest venues to play at. You have the return of Stephen Jackson which is obviously Huge! Though they should also have all there WR's as well with Bennett and Looker healthy. CLE has not proven able to stop the run. 72carries for 333yards in its two road games vs Oak and NE. I have to factor in how well they played vs ARI with Bulger and SJ out. They literally gave 3 TD's away that day and still lost by only 3. The 3 mistakes were the Edge James fumble into the end zone recovered by an OL , the pick 6 by Frerotte and the penalty that gave Warner one more play before halftime. Even with CLE's improvements I don't see them as road chalk cause they make alot of mistakes still and its not easy to overcome on the road usually. Wilkins troubling me with his kicking woes to date. Lewis is a game time decision and STL has shown some improvement slowing the run. Your gonna see alot of cappers taking the DOG cause its the sexy thing to do today to try and outsmart Vegas. In one of my pools with 50 people 62% are Cle FWIW....also in STL favor here is the recent return of both of there starting CBs.
Det @ Chi :
I feel like the Lions are in a similar position to STL except there home play has been very good compared to marginally good. Both have been scary bad on the road . The Lions have been atrocious on the road. Remember how Philly carved them up and how Wash put up 34 on them. Well don't forget how in the Opener they opened a huge lead only to watch OAK crawl into the game. There defense has been nearly non exist ant on the road. How bout QBs 74/95 for about 900 yards in 3 games with 92c for 383yds. Whole lotta plays run against the defense on the road..
Sure the Bears have issues on defense and in the running game. I simply couldn't back that DET defense on the road. You know CHI wants to avenge there sloppy loss @ DET a few weeks back. Just ask Tommy Harris. With such an odd number the backdoor will probably be wide open. There is no way in hell you can only make Chi -3 here , so that means even -4 is probably cheap still. On the flip Det +7 gets way to much Det money. So they seemed to split it the middle at -5.5. Personally just not liking Kitna's play lately and unsure of what to expect from Kevin Jones here. The injury list abit concerning for CHI. However Shaun Rogers may be banged up , a starting safety and CB are questionable for Det , and DE Edwards is doubtful. CHI leaky defense was decent last week. The issues are somewhat overblown cause it was 1 bad quarter @ Det , really just a bad 2nd H vs Dal that was worse then it looked , and AP had a helluva day. Kevin Jones and Co probably wont be drawing many AP comparisons. I see no value in DET but am weary still to back the Bears.....
Indy @ Carolina
Tough spot for the Colts here. Short week after a psychical MNF game in Jax with NE on deck. Not to mention Carolina rested off a BYE focused solely on this game especially being winless at home. Really how different is CAR then JAX? I dont want say this the wrong way but Jax really fucked up there first few drives with bad play calling. They should have some points on the board early before Garrard left. Why they decided to pass the ball so much I'll never know. With Testaverde you can expect a steady dose of runs . Indy is w/o Harrison and Keiaho now as well. Have to like this big HOME doggie...Panthers always attractive as a dog and see a 23-20 game...if Carolina sticks to it they can run and hopefully Vinny takes what the Cover 2 defense gives him. For me just a great spot for Carolina. Indy somewhat banged up on short week in look ahead spot after impressive MNF win. The line is inflated even with Vinny at the helm.
Giants @ Dolphins
Hard to figure how London figures into the equation to be honest. Think the crowd will be somewhat split . What I do know is the Miami defense keeps getting worse. Brandon Jacobs should be able to pound the ball with Zach Thomas out and the secondary has been soft and suffered more lossed versus NE. NY has to guard against a letdown and they managed that versus SF who has a decent defense but no offense. This Miami team is really bare with Brown and Chambers gone. That was there playmakers. I give Miami alot of credit cause they always play hard but now the losses are beyond ridiculous IMO...
10.1 YPA last 3 games.....hello Plax !!! The whole fatigue issue is a concern though...Sure its a big number on a neutral field but what does Miami have going for it ???? They were just catching 16 at home and getting crushed at half !!
Oakland @ Tenny
Okay so OAK cannot find ways to score vs good defenses and Tenny shuts down the run. Not an attractive number to lay but Oak doesn't win on the road often . The early start for OAK always a concern. Right now I just cant be excited for OAK to crack 14 points...Titan offense isn't much to speak off but they did explode last week....and may have found something in Chris Henry @ RB . Definitely a game not interested in playing but don't see OAk as attractive as many others. You know Tennys defense is tough (minus the 4th quarter last week) and we know Culpepper takes bad sacks and is prone to costly or timely mistakes. Seems like a bad recipe. It's all about the offense here for Tenny. They shutdown ATL last home game but did zip with the ball. With VY coming back maybe a 1st H under is attractive....
Philly @ Minny
Vikings way to dependent on AP for offense but the change to Holcomb should help. Personally while Minny has a sound defense they struggle versus the pass which Philly will look to do with LJ Smith healthy again. With Philly struggling for points and Philly playing fairly sound defense I'll settle for 20-17 here Eags...just think Minny lacks the offense firepower here.. especially since Philly can stop the run. I am hoping the total creeps up to 38 again ...
Pitt @ Cincy
Steelers have struggled on the road to date. I am sure some people are down on them after the DEN game but Cincys defense is still a mess. Even last year Pitt was -6 @ Cincy and I think this Steeler team is better and Cincy a step below..Pitt should just pound the ball opening up the game for Big Ben . Cincy just cant sit back and try to hit big plays...the Jets gave them that game last week....pound Willie Parker and Big Ben should feast....
Plays :
STL +3.5
Car +7.5
Philly ML
Lean:
NYG -9.5 (fatigue a concern with such a big number )
Bears -5.5 ( defensive injuries concern me)
Pitt -3.5 ( never a fan of road chalk)
Tenn -7 ( even with OAK as a solid dog and Tenny a poor fav)
Totals :
Not really interested in any yet......
Later games to come.......GL
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