NCAAB Monday :

Tenn-Martin @ Morehead State:

Contrasting styles to say the least. One thing that makes it difficult to get a feel for this game is my belief that (low to)mid majors that can score the ball will play better against tougher road competition. Where as defensive , ball control squads will struggle due to the fact there defensive prowess will be somewhat negated by the better athletes they are facing . As well as there offensive weapons facing tougher defenders and schemes. Not to mention there offensive weapons usually consisting of two players who if shut them down then you basically shut out the whole offense.

So basically I dont think Morehead can travel well with limited scoring where as Tenn Martin can be somewhat competitive in tough enviroments such as Miss State and Memphis.

You look at Morehead's schedule and have to feel they will be overmatched here. The key factor is that this is conference play. For some reason they play Austin Peay real well and I think they were deflated heading into Murray State . Now both teams lost alot from last year but Juco transfer Lester Hudson has been a scoring machine and freshman Weddle has played very well early. Not sure about the status of Gerald Robinson because he didnt play last game.

I have to weigh that Tenn Martin did lose at home to Central Ark and slipped by Maine on a neutral court. One thing that stood out is the fact that Tenn Martin didnt shot very well in a few games but had a nice edge in FT's shot. They snuck my SPC but had 18 more FT attempts , they shot only 37 % @ Ark State, they shot 15 more FTs vs Jax State and only 5 of 22 from three , less then 40% at home vs Central Ark.

Possible attractive home dog ?? However upon 1st glance I though Martin was the play. Not sure what instinct to trust...interested in seeing who dictates tempo though...

Eastern Ill @ EKU :

Two struggling offenses.....Eastern Illinois has played somewhat worse then expected versus a tough schedule for Eastern Kentucky. I have no idea what to make of this matchup cause I have faded E.Ill a few times early. However I dont see why the +10 isnt attractive here?? You have a conference matchup where the DOG has two legit scorers and plays a team who struggles on offensive settling in the high 50's , low 60's.....

To me a pivotal number is 53 for EILL, if they get 53 you would worst case split the Over and the side...

Wofford @ Bama :

Bama doesnt play much defense but Wofford has struggled vs good defenses @ Wisky and ARK (44pts avg). So you would hope they crack the 50s here as you would hope SEC players could defend this Wofford squad better then the rest of there early schedule. With Wofford they have had some injuries with guards Gibson and Nichols now back providing big boosts.

Being that Bama hasnt played much defense and Wofford is in a work in progress getting healthier I would say 17.5 points is looking REAL attractive as is the Over 134 cause I would think Wofford can can get 60+ here now that they are healthy......


Ind State @ Tulane :

Ind State is a team in transition looking for offense. They have Martin starting now along with Moore, Marshall the former walk on and Stinson. Tulane has lost two games they were favored in to a tough New Orleans squad and @ Buffalo. Take away the opening win vs Auburn and what has Tulane done?? They did just beat Gardner Webb of the Kentucky UPSET fame .That Webb team just started HOT and has quickly faded IMO..

Same thing with Ind State when it face Miami Ohio recently. You cant take much from that game cause I think they were flat after letting the Purdue game slip away. I think it is telling they played @ North Texas catching only 5 points and lost by 9. Thats telling to me since NTexas is a solid squad. Not to mention the solid effort @ Purdue.

Think Ind State makes this a game and scores 60+ so that would make the over attractive......


Western Carolina @ Illinois :

While it might be tough to lay 23 points with Illinois look at the Weber State game as an indicator of what it can do at home vs inferior competition. They did allow Weber to "win" the 2nd H and cover but Weber is better then WCU IMO( 25 pt lead at Half). However we can think that Illinois is taking them lightily after losing by 48 @ Indiana. Illinois doesn't have that type of offense though to hang a 100 but has been somewhat suprising at times.

For WCU this has been tough to overcome.....Aldridge, who was averaging 18.8 points a game, left the team for personal reasons prior to the loss to Elon. Giles numbers are skewed by the 32 he dropped vs Charleston as he dropped ZERO @ Indiana. Michael Porrini has taken over the mantle as top scorer for the Catamounts, and he's just a freshman. Porrini isn't a great shooter and he also leads Western Carolina in assists, but he knows how to put the ball in the basket. So WCU is a young inexperienced team playimg a tough enviroment(AGAIN).

I expect WCU in the low 50 here and I think Illinois at home will get 75. So it will be close..... the UNDER @ 138 seems interesting.....78-53..??

North Colorado @ Zaga :

You get the feeling its all about how many Zaga wants to win by. NCU could be w/o Taibi again. If So I wouldnt expect more then mid 50s here for them. See no reason why Zaga doesnt a pproach 80 points here....though the total at 133 was low but now 136/137 seems correct since you would expect mid 130s in this game....

Montana @ Santa Clara

The last time out Santa Clara dropped a home game to Pacific and Montana just lost in OT @ Pacific.

"Montana led most of the second half, but Michael Kirby made two free throws to put Pacific ahead 61-60 with one minute remaining in regulation."

Now Santa Clara seems to be in a bounce back spot here. When Pacifc traveled to there house they were OFF a horrible home loss to Pepperdine and it was a beatdown. So the fact they stepped it up @ SC was not a suprise especially with the line being inflated a couple of points. Now you have Montana rolling in after letting one slip away @ Pacific before falling in OT. Seems to me that very often teams just come out flat when they have an upset slip through there fingers late.

With little time to rebound this should be a flat spot for Montana....and the game seems fairly priced to me at -6.5....Another total thats very tight as the road squad should be in the mid 50s....but lean under cause I dont see more then 70 from the Broncos.....68-57

Portland @ EWU :

In Portland we could very well have another YOUNG team in a bad spot. They pulled off an upset @ Montana with a late 3 ball . Then they gave Washington everything it could handle before falling late. So do they come out flat here?? I would expect them after two great performances and the one that got away lingering in there mind.

East Wash played one heck of a tough schedule early on and few home games. They beat Riverside early and lost by 9 to Santa Clara. I have a hard time laying 3 points with Portland in this spot and think this is a dangerous home dog cause of so many unknowns floating around.

You would expect this game to be played in the mid 50's . However the longer it remains close the better chance we have of seeing this slip into the 60's. So slight lean to UND 124.......61-59

My thoughts so far.......BOL