Right now for NCAAF I have ...

Wyoming -2.5 -120
Houston +10.5
Under 54 Texas ( Under 28 1st H )
Mid Tenn State +10.5
Florida Atlantic +17
Over 60 BC
Duke +7.5
Kansas +4 & 1st H Under 27.5 -115
Cent Mich +13
Zona +3.5 -120
Over 63 Arizona State @ Wash State
USC -21.5 even 1st Half


4team Parlay: GaTech ML , Georgia -1.5 , Ohio State -7 & Mich State -16.5

With Wyoming simply feel TCU is overrated and there offense struggles at tough road venues. Due to altitude Wyoming is a tough place to play.

With Houston feel that Bama is offensively challenged to a degree and the Cougars play better then expected after last weeks home loss. A Bama win but by a TD...

Recent Texas / Oklahoma games have been low scoring. Texas offense is messed up and McCoy is banged up. We know about the OU defense but there offense faces an under the radar UT defense .Lets say 31-14 game.....Oklahoma will be ready after the upset in COL....

Mid Tenn State cause they have been solid at home facing a notoriously poor road team. The UVA win versus Pitt is smoke and mirrors as the young QB Pitt played certainly feed UVA's momentum early. Just feel that UVA isnt as good as last weeks final which inflates the line here ...

Florida Atlantic is a little scary but not sold on USF offense. They didnt show much vs WVU last week. FAU should be able to score some points at home...figure 31-14 type game...as I think USF success is due to its defense...

The parlay is simply think GT veteran defense and ground game will limit Marylands offense no matter who starts at QB , Tenny doesnt seem to be as good as there home scores might indicate. The Bulldogs are proven on the road .. , and I thought Ohio State and Mich State opened soft. Nwestern looked pitiful at Ohio State and Mich State is improving.

The Over 60 with Boston College is tricky. I admit the total being pressed up a few points opened my eyes to this. Both QBs can sling it and both defenses pass defenses are its weaker points. Feel that regardless of the point spread BC cracks 40 and BG cracks 20...Also some defensive injuries for both...deciding if I play the 1st H over , the game over or gamble and wait till halftime to play it...

LEANS: Ill -2.5 , Indiana -13.5 , Under 52 Ill / Wisconsin , 1st Half Under Kansas , LaTech +13 , Temple ML , Over 68 Ball State

GOOD LUCK....

2nd Half thoughts:

GaTech -3 think they shot themselves in the foot on both sides of the ball and we wont see that again in the 2nd H.

Fucked around with small plays on Ill , Nwestern , Kansas ..usually my undoing...BOL

Now in the afternoon games I have to say I am scared about the Oklahoma total now at 56 with me on both the game Under and 1st H under....oh by the way I will be pissed if the Kansas game goes UNDER after losing the 1st H by the HOOK with 3 straight possession TDS in the final 11 minutes before HALF!!!Still considering Georgia and already playing Flordia Atlantic in the USF letdown spot..thats all for the moment


MLB Playoffs....

Personally I just cant condone anything in game 1 ...the line says take Chi -190 and Over 10....I do like Chi but at 10 runs technically I really like the UNDER. However when lines are inflated at Wrigley there tends to mean the ball will be flying out of there and with a contact pitcher like Livan out there...oh boy...Hill has been solid and was nasty last outing . What I do suggest is not playing the Cubs -1.5 though...a sucker bet to me here....if you like Zona settle for +1.5 RL rather then ML IMHO......

Be back with more CFB...for 2nd Players I like Over 28.5 Wash State as te pace picked up before half and we get the discounted line...and Zona -1.5 or +3 whatever you prefer...everything went Ore State way till the late pick 6 which should change the momentum for the 2nd H


Not sure about anymore at this point.....really like ECU +3.5 but waiting till halftime. Lean towards Rutgers...I mean Maryland -18 then Cincy -3.5...your gonna tell me Cincy is clearly better then Maryland...and by 2 TDS..?? Ohio State and Fla also intrigue me but the UNDER @ LSU leads the way as my most likely lean...gl

Well my Yankees went down in flames yeterday. Its rea.lly not the upset its being made out to be. It was CC Sabathia on the hill and we do have a lackluster away record vs LHSP. Anyway my gripe is with Joe Torre and the media. It's the managers and coaching staff sole job to put his players in a position to succeed. Well letting Wang have 8 or 9 days bewteen starts is a RECIPE for disaster. We all know that such extended rest for a sinkerballer is a disaster waiting to happen. So why didnt Joe better set up his playof rotation?? Cause Joe does the same shit all the time , he hopes for the bst cause he is managing a roster full of All Stars. Well in l;ife hoping doesnt get you very much. Just ask his disiciple Willie Randolph at Shea. Guility of the aame crime. So IMO the game was lost when you had Wang on anything more then 6 days rest. Case closed! Has nothing to do with Wang so called suspect numebrs on the road...nothing!! Well Carmona is a similiar pitcher with his power to seamer arsenal. Wedge could be making the same mistake as Carmona has been rested since 9/26. I made a mistake taking such a low UNDER 8.5 / 9 in that situation. Alot of thing spointed to an over. However with roughly the same caliber SPs and available relievers we have a 9.5 / 10 total. Thats some value even with Carmona being a bit of a concern. You figure US Yankees are desperate. That means any close game could see Joba and Mo for 3 maybe even 4 innings of work with an off day on Saturday.

Numbers we have Pettitte winning 5-3 @ the Jake vs Westbrook and getting a 10 total. We have Laz Diaz 8.50 runs per game past 2 seasons and 22-14 UNDER this season. Of note Pettitte in the past has good career numbers when Diaz is behind the dish 5-1 record with the only loss being Scutaro walkoff HR vs Rivera. Sometrhing liek 14 runs in those 6 games by the opponents. This is basically a late day game where carmona had a 2.14 ERA and 9-1 record( 8-4 UNDER). Pettitte was 7-3 UNDER in the day and excluding his last start @ Balt had solid numbers. I think this is 5-3 or 5-4 game.....

In the early game like yanks but not the price so much. Might go with Yanks +110 series cause if we win here I like our chances....Shadows could play into this....

So far UNDER 10 runs ( 9.5 is good as well) GL

Side Note : NYY is 15-4 this year after allowing 10 runs. Which tells me they bounce back after bad beats. Remember the 19-1 drubbing Cle laid on us in 2006?? We won the next day!!! This year we are also 7-11-1 O/U in those 10 runs + situations. With the total in the 9 and 9.5 range (currently 9.5 runs here) Yanks 24-33 and Cle 31-44. Cle 20-28 O/U when facing LH's. We know about Pettitte's playoff pedigree and his Yankee stopper status. Cle is 13-23 o/u facing a team ith a winning record since the break and NYY is 23-12 in these situations SU. If I have this correct le is something like 53-89 O/U past 3 years in the day and I believe 12-31 o/u this season....also Carmona and Hughes total was 9.5 ....the price is justr to high for NYY for me...despite 4-0 in the ALDS after losing game 1 and game 2 of a series record 33-18 vs Cle 28-23...


What a fucking game!!! Props to both SP tonite. I cant believe those flies at the JAKE....seriously WTF is that ?? Thats how you beat Joba I guess. Let the flies loose and disrupt him on the mound...bottomline is 1 runs wasnt going to win the game...lets GO YANKEES!!!

I got tied up and the game just kicked off. Was really looking hard at the UNDER 62 / 63 but decided to pass. Had thought about the 1st half UNDER 31 as well. For some reason I was just scared to pull the trigger. Just looking at what the Ville has done outside of Murray State I dont think laying 2 TDS vs an improving Utah squad had value.

So I took the UTES +14.5...waiting to see what the Half score obviously I will be kicking myself if its lows like I thought...


Still thinking about the Over 9 @ Boston...same total as last nite with more question marks from the SP and Vlad better when he plays RF and the lineup is deeper with Rivera or Morales IMO...

Well upon further review I think both lineups have failed to see these SP which is a big plus for Dice K. Escobar last few @ Fenway have been solid. I think Escobars little rut was shoulder fatigue and he seemed solid @ Oak on Sat. I think we see a 5-4 game here worst case so I would only recommend an UNDER if you had 9.5...played it very small...very...almost not worth mentioning...really what drove me was the over reliance of recent stats from many people looking at this game...you have to understand why things happen IMO.......BOL GO YANKEES!!

Day 1 of the 2007 MLB playoffs went largely as I had expected. No real suprises IMO.

Today we start with Col @ Philly once again. Alot being made of the Phillies displeasure with the time slot they have been given due to the shadows. The funny thing is Philly has played a few 3 PM day games at home this year and put some runs up if I recall correctly. I do think its in there head some but really someone should reveal the proper data to them. It may be harder to see the ball but there performance hasnt been really affected that much.

One thing I see is both pitchers dont tend to go deep in games . Kendrick tends to be the 90 pitch count area while Morales is more like 80. Not sure if they will be extended beyond that but if it is notthen by the top of the 7th both pens should be involved. Kendrick has been hit in his 2 starts vs COL. while Morales blanked Philly through 5 @ Citizens. One note with Morales is team seeing him a 2nd time have hit him harder then the first. See SFG and LAD who had a fairly different lineup. So I think that maybe some of his success is due to people not getting a look at him. Philly has seen him and I expect him to get hit today. Though Ed Hickox tends to be an UNDER umpire this year the one thing I see is ONLY 10 of his 31 starts had totals of 10 to 11 runs. Showing me he had a lot of good SP matchups evidenced by his 5.5 runs per game allowed by starters when he is calling strikes. Previous season he lends to be biased towards overs and was 19-11 OVER with 10.30 ++ runs per game.

Two young SP with somewhat overworked bullpens should lead to runs being scored today. Yesterday we saw a bunch of HRS but they were solo shots. The ball will carry.


So while I like Philly here I think Over 10 runs -120 presents more value. Thats my initial play for today. Looking at the UNDER @ Cleveland if I can get 9 runs ....GL


In the evening game we travel to the JAKE as Wang squares off against Sabathia. While the NYY have struggled all season on the road vs LHP they have improved of late. However IMO they still do not hit quality LHP that well and will have 5 true LHB in the lineup. While AROD has good carer numbers vs CC they came years ago. Sabathia has rounded into the stud we thought he would be when he arrived on the scene. This year Arods 275 vs LHP doesnt look imposing. Check those away games vs Bedard , Kazmir , Francis , etc and see not many runs scored my us. Its really not a new thing since we basically switched from Sheff to Abreu in RF mid season 2006.

One thing under the radar will be the numebrs Wang sports when he starts with more then regular reat ( more then 5 days). In 10 starts this season he he is 7-1 3.11 ERA with a 257 BAA. Last year he was 6-1 2.70 ERA in 9 starts with a 244 BAA. Not to forget are his excellent numebrs under the lights : 25-5 3.50 ERA past 2 years!!!

Really we all know how good both guys can be. Mix in the fact that Cle didnt come into the series on fire offensively it should help Wang even more. NYY did come in red hot offensively but facing a different class of pitcher. Both guys have strong options in the pen here with Jo Bo being the exception closing it for Cle. I prefer the NYY here but not sure about price. If for some reason NYY went to even money or better I might bite. Till the UNDER 9 is my play here.....GL


So pissed at myself for missing out on the fact that Wang had NOT pitched since 9/26 . Thats why to much for a sinkerballer even one who throws 95 MPH....Not saying I owuld have played the OVER but I would have laid off the UNDER ofr sure.....details, details , details....my bad!!

Staying away from the late game I thought the line should have been chi -120 / 8.5 hich is basicaly where it is. So I passed as I missed out on the value at Under 9 and Ari +130 or better. Anyway went with Over 28 or 28.5 in the South Carolin game. A few silly mistakes have cost the teams points. The fumble going in on the 1 , the bad Woodson toss INT in the end zone , couple a short FGs. Woodson got his bell rung but I believe he is okay to big a stage to not try and seize the moment IMO. We could see OT. Alot of things aid an over here. My belief was 1st H under 28.5 and then 2nd H over . To bad I didnt play that way....GL

Well Marshall really shot themselves in the foot last nite. Absolutely awful gameplanning in the 1st Half with the playing call in the 1st quarter and the questionable decision to not run the ball with 3 minutes remaining till hbalf. Then second half fumbles inside the twenty and on the FG cost them an easy SU win. They arent very good but Mem did exactly what I thought they would realy stopping Mem on just 1 drive over the final 3 quarters...ML lost , +3 pushed and +3.5 won..depending on how u played it. The 1st H was low scoring and at 28 created nice value in 2nd H over.

Early baseball playoffs...short on time at the moment...

One thing overlooked is Jeff Francis solid numbers in day starts most of which have been in Aug and Sept. he stunk up twice vs Philly but they were nite starts. Not an excuse but not entirely the same situation IMO. Since his last bad outing at Philly he has been solid 3 straight. I dont think COL pen is that worn out as most pitchers went 1 inning with low pitch counts.

The Rocks could be drained and really didnt hit the SD pen till Hoffmann came in. Funny when you look at Peavy and Hoffmann as the two sure things from SD. Anyway bot teams lackluster numbers vs LHP. Rocks only 252 away and have never seen Hamels off a 116 pitch dominant outing. High pitch count is concerning but he says he is okay. Only 233 last 10 but no LH starters in that mix. Philly 272 at home vs LHP and 212 last 10 struggling vs Matt Chico recently.

Francis in road day starts allowed 8 runs in 36 2/3 innings spanning 5 starts. So the pen may not be such a concern anyway.

Hamels some minor issues in day starts in his early career. Just not sure 2 April home starts carry much weight as well as 1st start after the break. TGhe only other home day start was recently vs Wash which was solid and nats do hit LHP fairly well. He is 10-3 3.22 ERA in 17 starts on regular rest. Where Francis is 12-5 in 22 starts with a 3.62 ERA on regular rest. Long rest he was a 5.74 ERA and 314 BAA..check cbssportsline for the complete breakdown.

Anyway I prefer the Under looking for 9.5 but will take 9 especially at even. I feel 8.5 is the fair total here. Also see value in Col +1.5 runs and Under 1st 5 innings.....

Good Luck be back later!!


Tough matchup @ Fenway. I have this line much closer to -130 though. My concern about making this a value play is that Matthews is OUT hurting the LAA defense. Vlad is banged up relegated to DH which puts a banged up Figgins in RF. My point is the inflated line due to health issues like what we saw when the Pats traveled to Cincy on Monday?? Hoping its the perception of Lackey @ Fenway.

Sure Boston has the better lineup and Lackey has issues @ Fenway. Heres my deal though look at Lackeys numbers 2005 -2007 only. Basically cause that is the guy toeing the rubber tonite. Both SP have a long ago history of being money pitchers in the playoffs. The stats still arent great BUT take out Lackeys last outing which came after a nite game @ Tor and was a 1PM start in Fenway. Plus Lackeys day splits not so sharp this season. His other stats are serviceable like 6 inn 3 run types.

Lackey is 11-5( team 12-5) 2.73ERA away and 15-5 (17-5)2.55ERA at nite. Beckett is 9-5 (10-7) 4.17 ERA and 11-6(11-8) 3.71 ERA at nite . Really you want Beckett in the day on the road cause thats where his numbers are strongest. Also there is a misconception out there that Manny and Papi OWN Lackey. Its again not the past 3 seasons...they hit him well but Manny 4/12 and Papi 5/13 with I think 1 Hr combined isnt all that alarming....Lowell only 3/12 lifetime.

So played at +160 think +150 or better is very nice value. The total is a headache. I do think UNDER @ 9 looks tempting. What scares me is both guys allow enough hits where 1 mistake could be 3 runs. Both guys have proven to be bulls in the postseason and on the season.So leaning towards that UNDER but not sure...GL


Still thinking about that late game in Zona . Did play the Cubbies to win the series though based on Zambrano , Hill and Lilly with a solid pen outside of closer Dempster. Easily the better lineup on paper.

The CFB game. Lets see 3rd string QB who is a redshirt freshman making his 1st start. Oh and the line didnt budge...I have to think that normally that would call for a line adjustment. Its easy to see Fletcher running wild on Rice and the Eagle defense stepping up after last week. So if I had to guess I would say SoMiss wins 38-14. Based mainly on Rice being awful on the road facing an angry defense. Oh and the linesmakers telling you while we havent seen M.Young play we are confident enough to hold the line...simple logic.....GL


Well the value play on LAA was a sucker bet plain and simple. Rarely do I feel fooled when looking at a game. Like I mentioned earlier was the inflated line a bi-product of way to much Boston love OR a sign of just how banged up LAA is and how flat they would be. We now know the answer. Just very disappointed I didnt play the UNDER at 9 runs. Even liking LAA there only shot at winning was a low scoring game.

As for the CFB game so far I am clueless there it seems. Funny I guess. The line most of held 21 cause Reeves played!! Well that logical analysis was thrown out the window quickly. The Eagles look flat from what I have seen . You almost have to entertain a 2nd H over here.

The last order of business is although I like Chicago the line has been pounded to the point where all the value is sucked out of them. I dont like Chi at +115 dont exactly like Arizona but dont like the price here. What I did was play the late UNDER. You look at Zambrano away and his numbers are so solid along with his nite data. Webb has been tough at home and sports a very inexperienced postseason lineup facing a pitcher they really havent ever faced . Who happens to be inconsistent but Cy worthy on many nites. Webb is a former Cy Young winner. Both SP hold rHB to a 200baa......late nite UNDER 7.5 Runs....welcome to the playoffs. GL

After further review I actually think Southern Miss may be done here. No idea what to take 2nd H and would only lean UNDER and Rice +8.5...GL

Tonite there is only one game to look at : Marshall @ Memphis in CFB.

At first glance we know both teams have poor defenses. I think what cant be missed is level of competition. Marshall has played WVU , @ Miami and @ Cincy. All 3 sport sound defenses and Cincy and Miami excel on that side of the ball. I know someone is thinking what about the loss at home to New Hamphsire. Well maybe it was a bit of a hangover after the collapse to WVU , maybe a bit of arrogance on there part after playing WVU so tough for 3 quarters , maybe Bernard Morris sitting mearly the entire 1st H?? Tough to decipher but New Hamp is somewhere around top 15 in 1 AA. Now how much different is a mid major then 1 AA these days?? What I am saying is the loss as bad as it looks?? Maybe not IMO. Alot of Marshall's points allowed IMO are due to the fact they have turned it over versus these tough defenses and I include WVU in that. The turnovers lead to short fields. Which in effect makes Marshall's defense look worse then it truly is. Memphis on the other hand hasnt played much of anyone getting shredded for 1000yards by Ark St and UCF ( which I think is an explosive offense for sure). The wildcard for them is the death of a player but also how they bounce back from there THURS collapse. No one knows how it effects them here. What I do know is the kid hadnt played at all this year. Which begs me to ask how much of a part of the team was he?? Horrible question to ask. There are those looking for Memphis pysche or motivation here. I just dont see this as the motivation angle its being used as. As well as the feeling at memphis of the bad stuff just piling on. You just had a historic collapse @ Ark St then 2 days later a teammate is murdered. The what next feeling has to be in there heads.

Then there is Memphis tough schedule with 3 games in 11 days or so. Not to underemphasize there collapse vs Ark St on Thursday , probably take Fri off , pratice and prepare for Marshall on Sat and Sun . Then the shocking , horrific news. With the twist that this murder seems premeditated and not a random act. Cant imagine much getting done on Monday @ Memphis. I think focus here is a monumental task for the Tigers. Marshall on the other hand is off a BYE WEEK with a ton of time to prepare and rest up ( get healthy). Where Memphis injuries dont have much time to heal. Certainly different personnel then last year but Marshall beat up Memphis pretty good. Bernard Morris is playing well and facing a so-so defense at best with injury issues. Now understand Morris missed nearly the entire 1st H vs NH and still threw for 417 yds and 3 scores!!!! WOW! The Thundering Herd should see a spike in rushing stats cause this isnt Miami , Cincy or WVU .

At first glance I thought memphis would get there first win here till I broke it down. I aksed myself does memphis know how to win?? They outplayed Ole Miss and lost and the 31-6 halftime lead @ Ark State that saw a 29-0 second half. I dont think they know how to win. Which would scare me backing them as chalk. Lastly I think a fair line is PKem but because of Marshall schedule and Memphis close losses its been inflated.....

My feeling is play Marshall ML or buy it to +3 if you rather feel safe..however I expect Marshall to win SU...will wait till halftime to see if a 2nd H over is worth it..usually would have to be a lower scoring 1st H GOOD LUCK

Side Note : watching ESPN pregame it looked like thye had a beautiful turnout for Taylor Bradford..very sad story..