Update on the NFL:

Top 2 values I see :
Dallas +5.5
Cheifs +3

-Think Dallas ML is a sound value play and you can probably buy it to 6 points at most places.

-With KC would pay the grossly high vig to make it +3.5 instead of the ML.

1 PM :
Jaguars -6.5 : Two teams who appear headed in opposite directions. Jags started slow and have improved every week while I feel Houston is taking baby steps backwards. Still no Andre Johnson and while Ahman Green returns its been real tough to run against Jax. Garrard still gets no credit and has been solid to date. Some injuries to take note of on both sides. Think Jags team OVER could be a nice value...

Dolphins +4.5 : Browns offense has played well but still prone to costly turnovers. Miami is a desperate team who has 3 losses by 3 pts to date. There defense is getting healthier and Jamal Lewis is OUT. Cleo Lemon was fine @ Indy last year and expect a week of practice to a big huge benefit to the offense. Miami will probably allow 21 + pts here and that really makes the only total play and over in my opinion after much review. Think 24-21 game worst case scenario...

Vikings +5 : In 2006 these teams went head to head with the Vikings really beating themselves both times. I expect FGs here...19-16 or 16-13 game....thought the total should be 35. So value play on the UND 37 but sometimes I prefer the 1st H under . Gonna wait on a weather report for that decision.

Ravens -9 : McNair is a gametime decision but it really doesnt change my play. The Rams offensively are decimated bewteen the OL , QB , RB and WR injuries. The ravens defense just has to play 4 quarters. You can talk about BALTs offense but @ SF they are facing a very sound defense minus there TEs. Still no excuse but not the same situation. The Rams do not have an offensive TD on the road and Dante Hall will not be around to give them good field position or like @ Dallas 7 points. Tough task with Frerotte even hobbled some and mistake prone ( 3 INT'S) to feel confident that STL could score 14 points here..Only the 49ers poor offense failed to score 24 on STL who has gotten its starting corners back but is no minus Chavous at safety. Both teams have WR 's banged up and less then 100%....short fields scare me off turnovers but UND 37 might have some value...

Under 38 TB ( and TB -2.5 or ML): I dont like what Tenny has done recently but I am not crazy about the spread . I would have preferred to see PK or TB -1.5. As bad as ATL played last week the Titans had to hang on. Tenny was lucky to beat jax earlier and we know about the Saints now. The Indy game they scored when they were behind...a huge premium on points here...TB 17-13...

{Philly buy to -3 and UND 43} : These would be leans. You have to realize niether offense outside of 1 game for each has done much. Jets only scored 10 on offense vs da Giants...Philly is healthy here unlike the Giant game a few weeks back and yes they are 8-0 after the bye week. I expect an ugly game say 24-17...

GB Under 41 , 1st H under 20.5 , GB -2.5 -120 : First I think Wash is improved but look at there opponents. Det was how bad @ Philly and @ Wash ?? OT at home with Miami. Decent win @ Philly but the Eagles are struggling. Its gonna be tough for them to win on the road and you dont know how healthy Moss or Randle El are. Both defenses should be solid but I dont see WASH being as strong as the Bears are which the line tends to imply. The Skins were ONLY -4 at home to DET...Some issues on both sides with OL as well....

If I had to I would say expect a fairly low scoring game @ KC. Anything UNDER 43 or better loosk solid. I say this cause KC will concemtrate on the ground game and even if they win SU I would expect 23-20...


4 PM :

Ari -4 and Und 40 :

This is on the belief Carr will NOT play tmrw. Testaverde walking in off the streets with1 playmaker. It could be interesting to see Vinnys strong arm trying to connect with Steve Smith but you would think Ari blankets him. Panthers decent defense against Warner should keep the ARI offense in check. They had 3 gift scores @ STL IMO and really have been scoring about 20 per otherwise. The gifts were the James fumble forward for the TD , the penalty before half to give Warner a TD on the keeper and the pick 6. We know what the coaching staff wants to do in Arizona.

To some degeree both DAL and NE defenses are overrated especially when facing the respective offenses...think OVER here...

SD-9.5 : I am not crazy about seeing OAK try to run it with Fargas and Rhodes versus SD . This is NOT the Miami Dolphins minus Zach Thomas. We have to say if Culpepper can make plays in the passing game on a consistent basis before I call OAK anything. I loved how Rivers leaned on Gates in the passing game . You wonder when that light bulb moment happened. Anyway I see SD 27-14 here....but just like the Philly game one that I wouldnt run to play...


SNF :

Over 42 Seattle : Way to low for this game. The Saints defense isnt much to speak of and we know about Seattle in primetime specifically Shaun Alexander. Throw in the fact they are off a shutout. What scares me is Saints struggling offense versus a solid Seattle defense. For a side the Saints might be worth a shot but again not what I would be looking to play...27-21 game......


Team Totals :

Under Houston 14.5
Over Jags 21.5
Under Rams 14
Over Ravens 22.5
Over Eagles 23
Over Dallas 23.5
Under Bears 21.5