Frsutrated last nite didnt even update my card....
Tonite
Over 192 -105 Miami Heat & Detriot Pistons (8x)
Well about 3 games ago Mr.Riley did some lineup shuffling. It started with the home game vs Orlando and he seemed to spark something. He turned Dorrell Wright loose and he has been a monster on the glass and basically let it be known to vets Payton and Walker they have to earn there time with quality play not erratic shooting.
The results have been consistent offense 104 , 102 and 103 . A big key has been getting to the FT line 29 of 37 , 24 of 33 , and 24 of 29. The 1st game vs Orlando jason Williams was out and DNP. They shot 42 pct (36/85) . The next 2 performances with Jason Williams in the lineup were impressive statistically speaking. In Charlotte they shot 55% 38 -69 but get this only 2 of 15 from three. Thats means they were an incredible 36-54 from INSIDE the ARC. Then at home versus Philly they shot 37 of 63 (58%) little better from 3 (5 of 13). So there OFFENSE is suddenly clicking after underperforming for so long.
They get a Piston team who has allowed 46% shooting from the floor on the road nearly 40% from beyond the arc and has put its opponents on the line 24 times a game. Miami averages 27 FTs at home but as I said last 3 they are actualy betting to the line 33 times a game!!The Piston offense is clicking scoring at least 100 pts past 5or6 if you throw out the game @ Philly which had most Sixers out due to injury(still 97 -87 but no late easy scores). Miami also puts it opponents on the line alot(25 avg) as well and DET is above 80% from there. Det also shooting well at 46% from the floor and 40% from 3 last 5(44% from the floor away). Past 2 games Miami allowed 91 and 93 to so-so offense which also didnt benefit from any easy buckets at the end cause the games were decided by DD's. Previosuly they allowed at least 100 3 straight and 5 of 6. The Pistons allowed 111 in Wash , but 95 and 98 at home to less the strong offenses of Charlotte and Atlanta.
Basically these are not the Pistons of years past and I see no reason why both teams dont score 95++ points. As for a side I tend to want to wait but cant understand why Miami is getting +3.5 or +4 pts...before the injuries in Philly last week DEt was about a -1.5 pt fav @ Philly ....so to me alittle fat line with DET win streak and the public not noticing Miami's resurgence recently....looking at Miami ++ points and ML....
Under 200 -110 LAL (4x)
Not going to get crazy with an explantion here. How is Utah getting a 200 total when say a team like MILW who is uptempo gets a 202 total. Seems like they are overlooking the fact Utahs past 3 games have been real low scoring and paying more attention to the 1st meeting. LA is just odd with 4 overs then 6 unders and now 4 overs....I would feel that both teams just played poor defense the 1st meeting and both coaches would be emphasizing defense here. I thought LAL totals have been a bit cheap recently....
Looking at LAL with Utah off there big win...thought this should actually be -5 so lets see where it ends up....
ADD:
Heat +4 -110 (3x) ML +147 (1x)
1st half over 95 -109 Miami (2x)
NCAAB
Over 67 -108 Auburn 1st Half (4x)
Over 136 -110 Ole Miss (5x)
Fordham -11.5 -105 (5x)
Over 131 -113 Manhattan (LEAN) gonna wait till halftime
Over 76 -120 Zaga (3x)
Under 58.5 -108 Mid Tenn 1st H (2x)
Mid Tenn -4 -110 (5x)
Over 68 -108 Arkansas 1st H (3x)
Missouri +3 -105 (3x) ML +118 (1x)
GL
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Baskets
NYK @ CLE
- Just a tough call here. The total is pretty damn tight at 195. I would suggest a final of 102-92 here...Cavs off a good offensive performance which followed a poor offensive performance. Have this line at about -10 as well. Remember while NY does play them well the glue could becoming undone in nY. Marbury was supposed to be so happy his neighbor was becoming the HC...fast forward a month or so and he is getting benched. Lee is actually an upgrade over Frye IMO. Losing Q kills the offense as he has been there best scorer. Does make me wonder how Crawford only gets 5 shots the guy will just never fit in here and needs to be moved ...If for some reason this dips below 10 I might get interested in Cle.
Bobcats +4.5 -113 (12x) ML +160 (2.5x)
Note: Char is 2 pts away from having all 5 ATS win as SU wins(makes ML more valuable)
-Now that Primo is back this team boasts an impressive frontine IMO. Okefor battled foul trouble last nite so his minutes were down. Felton was benched so his minutes were down. I think last nite was a good sign that Charlotte who folds often in the 4th Q held on and won SU in NJ. The Bobcats have taken 3 of 4 from ATL in both there seasons (so 6-2 SU lifetime). This team has talent in Gerald Wallace and Brevin Knight two gusy who needed some time in the NBA before they began to fulfill there potential. A bunch of # picks in Okefor , May , Morrison and Felton and so on. Atlanta has just looked different w/o Childress. As I said a young and thin team depends so heavily on Joe Johnson and Zaza Pachiula for there offense but where is there post presence. You have to think the team playing after a nice win has the edge. You wonder if ATL lets the loss @ Wash hangover some.....cant count how many 1 posession or OT losses ATL has. ATLis 1-6 last 7 SU , Bobcats are 3-1 in ATL lifetime and I felt this line should havebeen about -2.5 . Joe Johnson did play nearly 46 minutes..in back to backs he shots 40%(just 2 games) while the rest he is above 50%... His numbers were also slight worse about 3 pgg in back to backs last year. Being a shooter he also struggled with 3 days rest..tough to find a rythym with that much rest IMO. Again with the total seems fairly tight might revisit it later but lean UNDER.....
Bobcats are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 28-9-2 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite
Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest( but 0-2 ATS this season)
Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
NJ Nets +3.5 -110 (10x)(could reduce to 8x though) ML +132 (3x)
- Thanks to the NJ could streak you get a team that was probably gonna be around a PK at -3 or so. Boston has been favored 5 times this year going 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU. I am somewhat concerned with the recent schedule of NY but this is hard to pass up valuewise. especially with Bostons big 2nd H @ Milwaukee on Saturday and them being rested. NJ has lost 6 straight but the past 4 were by 6 or less and they choked in Seattle. Really what is killing them is tehre bench or lack there of. Tonite the face a team with asimiliar problem but NJ needs something out of Williams , Nachbar , Wright and dont be suprised to see Hassan Adams get minutes tonite. I dont worry much about Vince , Kidd or RJ logging heavy minutes it the other guys Collins and Kristic. NJ should be able to score in the post.. NJ is 6-2 SU past 8 versus Boston.
Celtics are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nets are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
Nets are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
Under 195.5 -106 Boston (3x)
- Extended rest could hurt shooters like Pierce and Wally IMO.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Under is 6-2 in Nets last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Under is 21-8 in Nets last 29 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 22-9 in Nets last 31 Wednesday games.
Under is 14-6 in Nets last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 9-3 in Celtics last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 home games.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Boston.
Raptors +10.5 -105 (6x) ML +585 (1/2x)
- Dallas is hot so lines get fat..have this closer to -8.5..Toronto had two 2 point losses vs Dallas including OT @ Dallas last season which they led by 17 to start the 4th Q . I like how Toronto is playing defense now and that alone hsould keep them in games. Toronto is 1 point away from winning 7 consecutive ATS and Dallas hasnt done well as big chalk this year.. Value play...
Under 197 -127 Dallas (7x)
- I thought this line was way off last nite and now its 193. As I said Toronto is now playing defense and have you checkjed what DAL is doing ...Last 6 highest pts allowed 92 the rest less then 87. Both teams allow 42 % from the floor lately. the mavs have also scored 95 or less in 5 of 6. Raps have scored low 90' s past 5 ... think this will real close 95 -89 type..the tighter the game the more meaningful late possessions become and hence no gimme FT's.
Spurs +1.5-108 (5x)
- Just one ofthose things where I expected a Pk and saw +1.5 so jumped...not sure where it ends up or if I stay on it. Dont know what happened to Utah past 2 games...though I faded them vs Orlando...Despite the fact Utah has thrown up 70 somethings lately I migt entertain the over...
Rockets +7.5 -110 (4x) ML +290 (1/2x)
-So TMac is OUT...big deal check his numbers he hasnt played well or done much. This is the year of YAO so far. Sure losing McGrady ' s skills hurt but his level of play has been very subpar. Expect other guys to step up. I was playing Hou +5 with him so I guess I never understood this line. Barbosa should be be back but at leastthen 100% which could do more harm then good but also Raja Bell has a bad case of the FLU. How bad? He needed IV at the hospital yesterday. Suns off there best game will probably have some sort of fall back game. Portland cant defend anyone which is evident by the fact even Indy shot 52% against them.
Under 196 -105 Seattle (6x)
- Tends to be a low scoring series. Orlando has held 9 of 10 below a 100 points and most of there road ganmes end up in the 170's. Sonics have been ionconsistent on offense and have gone under at home vs fellow EAST opponents NJ and Philly. Only concern this is alot lower then most SEA totals...but they did lay an egg vs SA 's defense and ORL is similiar style IMO. tendto like SEA here though....
Leans
Cavs -10 +102
Sea ML -140
Ind +6 -110
Mem +6.5 -110 ( legs after Denver?)
Over 180.5 LAC
Over 204.5 GS
Over 191.5 SA
Under 195.5 NYK
NCAAB( right now I use my instincts for college so be cautious)
Under 134 -110 Iowa (3x)
Mich St +5.5 -120 (1x)
Over 146 -127 Purdue (6x)
Oregon +5.5 -112 (5x) ML +206 (1/2x)
Ohio State +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +260 (1/2x)
Ark St +24 +103(wait) (4x)
ULL +12 -110 (3x)
Over 140 -105 Loyola , MD (3x)
Over 133 Wake & AF (wait though) (3x)
Under 120 -105 Temple (5x)
Over 139.5 -105 Marist (5x)
Marist ML -135 (4x)
NYK @ CLE
- Just a tough call here. The total is pretty damn tight at 195. I would suggest a final of 102-92 here...Cavs off a good offensive performance which followed a poor offensive performance. Have this line at about -10 as well. Remember while NY does play them well the glue could becoming undone in nY. Marbury was supposed to be so happy his neighbor was becoming the HC...fast forward a month or so and he is getting benched. Lee is actually an upgrade over Frye IMO. Losing Q kills the offense as he has been there best scorer. Does make me wonder how Crawford only gets 5 shots the guy will just never fit in here and needs to be moved ...If for some reason this dips below 10 I might get interested in Cle.
Bobcats +4.5 -113 (12x) ML +160 (2.5x)
Note: Char is 2 pts away from having all 5 ATS win as SU wins(makes ML more valuable)
-Now that Primo is back this team boasts an impressive frontine IMO. Okefor battled foul trouble last nite so his minutes were down. Felton was benched so his minutes were down. I think last nite was a good sign that Charlotte who folds often in the 4th Q held on and won SU in NJ. The Bobcats have taken 3 of 4 from ATL in both there seasons (so 6-2 SU lifetime). This team has talent in Gerald Wallace and Brevin Knight two gusy who needed some time in the NBA before they began to fulfill there potential. A bunch of # picks in Okefor , May , Morrison and Felton and so on. Atlanta has just looked different w/o Childress. As I said a young and thin team depends so heavily on Joe Johnson and Zaza Pachiula for there offense but where is there post presence. You have to think the team playing after a nice win has the edge. You wonder if ATL lets the loss @ Wash hangover some.....cant count how many 1 posession or OT losses ATL has. ATLis 1-6 last 7 SU , Bobcats are 3-1 in ATL lifetime and I felt this line should havebeen about -2.5 . Joe Johnson did play nearly 46 minutes..in back to backs he shots 40%(just 2 games) while the rest he is above 50%... His numbers were also slight worse about 3 pgg in back to backs last year. Being a shooter he also struggled with 3 days rest..tough to find a rythym with that much rest IMO. Again with the total seems fairly tight might revisit it later but lean UNDER.....
Bobcats are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 28-9-2 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite
Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest( but 0-2 ATS this season)
Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
NJ Nets +3.5 -110 (10x)(could reduce to 8x though) ML +132 (3x)
- Thanks to the NJ could streak you get a team that was probably gonna be around a PK at -3 or so. Boston has been favored 5 times this year going 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU. I am somewhat concerned with the recent schedule of NY but this is hard to pass up valuewise. especially with Bostons big 2nd H @ Milwaukee on Saturday and them being rested. NJ has lost 6 straight but the past 4 were by 6 or less and they choked in Seattle. Really what is killing them is tehre bench or lack there of. Tonite the face a team with asimiliar problem but NJ needs something out of Williams , Nachbar , Wright and dont be suprised to see Hassan Adams get minutes tonite. I dont worry much about Vince , Kidd or RJ logging heavy minutes it the other guys Collins and Kristic. NJ should be able to score in the post.. NJ is 6-2 SU past 8 versus Boston.
Celtics are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nets are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
Nets are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
Under 195.5 -106 Boston (3x)
- Extended rest could hurt shooters like Pierce and Wally IMO.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Under is 6-2 in Nets last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Under is 21-8 in Nets last 29 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 22-9 in Nets last 31 Wednesday games.
Under is 14-6 in Nets last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 9-3 in Celtics last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 home games.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Boston.
Raptors +10.5 -105 (6x) ML +585 (1/2x)
- Dallas is hot so lines get fat..have this closer to -8.5..Toronto had two 2 point losses vs Dallas including OT @ Dallas last season which they led by 17 to start the 4th Q . I like how Toronto is playing defense now and that alone hsould keep them in games. Toronto is 1 point away from winning 7 consecutive ATS and Dallas hasnt done well as big chalk this year.. Value play...
Under 197 -127 Dallas (7x)
- I thought this line was way off last nite and now its 193. As I said Toronto is now playing defense and have you checkjed what DAL is doing ...Last 6 highest pts allowed 92 the rest less then 87. Both teams allow 42 % from the floor lately. the mavs have also scored 95 or less in 5 of 6. Raps have scored low 90' s past 5 ... think this will real close 95 -89 type..the tighter the game the more meaningful late possessions become and hence no gimme FT's.
Spurs +1.5-108 (5x)
- Just one ofthose things where I expected a Pk and saw +1.5 so jumped...not sure where it ends up or if I stay on it. Dont know what happened to Utah past 2 games...though I faded them vs Orlando...Despite the fact Utah has thrown up 70 somethings lately I migt entertain the over...
Rockets +7.5 -110 (4x) ML +290 (1/2x)
-So TMac is OUT...big deal check his numbers he hasnt played well or done much. This is the year of YAO so far. Sure losing McGrady ' s skills hurt but his level of play has been very subpar. Expect other guys to step up. I was playing Hou +5 with him so I guess I never understood this line. Barbosa should be be back but at leastthen 100% which could do more harm then good but also Raja Bell has a bad case of the FLU. How bad? He needed IV at the hospital yesterday. Suns off there best game will probably have some sort of fall back game. Portland cant defend anyone which is evident by the fact even Indy shot 52% against them.
Under 196 -105 Seattle (6x)
- Tends to be a low scoring series. Orlando has held 9 of 10 below a 100 points and most of there road ganmes end up in the 170's. Sonics have been ionconsistent on offense and have gone under at home vs fellow EAST opponents NJ and Philly. Only concern this is alot lower then most SEA totals...but they did lay an egg vs SA 's defense and ORL is similiar style IMO. tendto like SEA here though....
Leans
Cavs -10 +102
Sea ML -140
Ind +6 -110
Mem +6.5 -110 ( legs after Denver?)
Over 180.5 LAC
Over 204.5 GS
Over 191.5 SA
Under 195.5 NYK
NCAAB( right now I use my instincts for college so be cautious)
Under 134 -110 Iowa (3x)
Mich St +5.5 -120 (1x)
Over 146 -127 Purdue (6x)
Oregon +5.5 -112 (5x) ML +206 (1/2x)
Ohio State +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +260 (1/2x)
Ark St +24 +103(wait) (4x)
ULL +12 -110 (3x)
Over 140 -105 Loyola , MD (3x)
Over 133 Wake & AF (wait though) (3x)
Under 120 -105 Temple (5x)
Over 139.5 -105 Marist (5x)
Marist ML -135 (4x)
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
NFL Week 13
Thursday Special
Bengals see -2.5 -125 (5x)or ML -162 (3x)
These teams squared off 2 weeks ago when Cincy was going bad and Balt won 26-20 as 3 pt favs. The Bengals then went to Cleveland and NO showing the world they had not quit. They also showed they can play defense...1st shutout in like 17 years!!! Basically in the 1st meeting before the offense of Cincy even had a chance it was 14-0. The Bengal fumbled the opening kickoff and started at Cincys 34. They marched into the end zone for a 7-0 lead. They kickoff and I believe on the 2nd play Palmer is picked off for a TD...so its tough to play from behind against such a sound defense. What I see is Cincy has that explosive offense working again and all 3 WRs seem healthy again. I still see the same deal from Baltimore though play great defense and get points off turnovers whether directly or indirectly through short fields. While Jamal Lewis has looked better his stats are still far from impressive and he doesnt appear able to grind out yards. The way I see it outside of the win @ NO where is Balt's impressive road win? They won last minute @ Tenny and @ Cleveland. They defetaed TB who know is awful and lost @ Denver cause they could not move the ball. From what I have seen I still dont think balt can consistenly move the ball on offense through the air. What I would call the weakness of the Raven defense is the pass and well who is better then Palmer right now?? Not sure how I wil play it yet but going Cincy here......
Browns +6 -115 (10x) ML +205 (1x)
Okay so Cleveland looked like shit at home this week. I will chalk that up from the previous week watching them CHOKE versus Pittsburgh at home allowing 3 4th Q TDs to LOSE. They were hungover that was there Super Bowl after the beating Pitt put down on them in 2005. Now they get shutout at home and it teams tend to bounce back after being shutout. KC has that big Turkey Day win that impressed everyone. Two things though. The long layoff takes away the momentum they could have built off that. The second is I feel if Denver could have done just a little more offensively they would have beat KC. Anyway CLE allows only 3.5 YPC at home andlets face KC offense has some issues Green or not...last 3 19 , 17 and 10 pts plus 3 of 5 away 10 points or less. The way Huard played I dont see Green as much of an upgrade. KC was only favored @ Zona and need a comeback to win by 3 ....simply put an overreaction to week 12!
The Cheifs avg just 276 yards of offense on the road!!
Jaguars ML +133 (10x)
No Ronnie Brown just hurts the Phins offense to much. Look at the Jags defense they didnt play poorly versus Buffalo and there defense will shutdown the Miami offense. Look how bad the Lions looked without Kevin Jones , I cant expect Sammy Morris to get it done versus Jax off a SU loss.....defensive battle probably will go under as well...Teams are built on great defenses but now Jax has the edge on offense with Drew & Taylor @ RB plus Matt Jones starting to make plays......tough to get a handle on Miami's true value now that have won 4 straight but I look at it like this Buffalo was favored in DET months ago so Buffalo is fairly close valuewise to Miami and we should probably see jax -3 here IMo.....
Giants +3.5 +100(wait) (10x) +183 ML
Lets not get over excited about destroying TB. Like the other Turkey day winners the layoff kills some of there momentum IMO. I know NY is falling apart but Strahan could return and lets not forget they did lead 21-0 with 10 to play. Alot of what Dallas has done with romo is defense related. They had a couple short fields for TD drives @ Carolina , they still found away to lose @ Washington , and they won easily @ Zona...nice but still not impressive. Then they get Indy at home and they get outplayed in the 1st Half but iimplement there gameplan after a defensive TD. Then came the TB destruction.
Simply put throw stats out the window here this line is so exaggerated IMO. I could see a PKem game but not this chalk. NY had a players only meeting so lets see what comes of it but we can get 4 points at home and I will take my chances with everyone drooling over Dallas. Thinking under........
Still looking at some have played Indy @ -6.5 -120 and TB @ +9 -121...
Thursday Special
Bengals see -2.5 -125 (5x)or ML -162 (3x)
These teams squared off 2 weeks ago when Cincy was going bad and Balt won 26-20 as 3 pt favs. The Bengals then went to Cleveland and NO showing the world they had not quit. They also showed they can play defense...1st shutout in like 17 years!!! Basically in the 1st meeting before the offense of Cincy even had a chance it was 14-0. The Bengal fumbled the opening kickoff and started at Cincys 34. They marched into the end zone for a 7-0 lead. They kickoff and I believe on the 2nd play Palmer is picked off for a TD...so its tough to play from behind against such a sound defense. What I see is Cincy has that explosive offense working again and all 3 WRs seem healthy again. I still see the same deal from Baltimore though play great defense and get points off turnovers whether directly or indirectly through short fields. While Jamal Lewis has looked better his stats are still far from impressive and he doesnt appear able to grind out yards. The way I see it outside of the win @ NO where is Balt's impressive road win? They won last minute @ Tenny and @ Cleveland. They defetaed TB who know is awful and lost @ Denver cause they could not move the ball. From what I have seen I still dont think balt can consistenly move the ball on offense through the air. What I would call the weakness of the Raven defense is the pass and well who is better then Palmer right now?? Not sure how I wil play it yet but going Cincy here......
Browns +6 -115 (10x) ML +205 (1x)
Okay so Cleveland looked like shit at home this week. I will chalk that up from the previous week watching them CHOKE versus Pittsburgh at home allowing 3 4th Q TDs to LOSE. They were hungover that was there Super Bowl after the beating Pitt put down on them in 2005. Now they get shutout at home and it teams tend to bounce back after being shutout. KC has that big Turkey Day win that impressed everyone. Two things though. The long layoff takes away the momentum they could have built off that. The second is I feel if Denver could have done just a little more offensively they would have beat KC. Anyway CLE allows only 3.5 YPC at home andlets face KC offense has some issues Green or not...last 3 19 , 17 and 10 pts plus 3 of 5 away 10 points or less. The way Huard played I dont see Green as much of an upgrade. KC was only favored @ Zona and need a comeback to win by 3 ....simply put an overreaction to week 12!
The Cheifs avg just 276 yards of offense on the road!!
Jaguars ML +133 (10x)
No Ronnie Brown just hurts the Phins offense to much. Look at the Jags defense they didnt play poorly versus Buffalo and there defense will shutdown the Miami offense. Look how bad the Lions looked without Kevin Jones , I cant expect Sammy Morris to get it done versus Jax off a SU loss.....defensive battle probably will go under as well...Teams are built on great defenses but now Jax has the edge on offense with Drew & Taylor @ RB plus Matt Jones starting to make plays......tough to get a handle on Miami's true value now that have won 4 straight but I look at it like this Buffalo was favored in DET months ago so Buffalo is fairly close valuewise to Miami and we should probably see jax -3 here IMo.....
Giants +3.5 +100(wait) (10x) +183 ML
Lets not get over excited about destroying TB. Like the other Turkey day winners the layoff kills some of there momentum IMO. I know NY is falling apart but Strahan could return and lets not forget they did lead 21-0 with 10 to play. Alot of what Dallas has done with romo is defense related. They had a couple short fields for TD drives @ Carolina , they still found away to lose @ Washington , and they won easily @ Zona...nice but still not impressive. Then they get Indy at home and they get outplayed in the 1st Half but iimplement there gameplan after a defensive TD. Then came the TB destruction.
Simply put throw stats out the window here this line is so exaggerated IMO. I could see a PKem game but not this chalk. NY had a players only meeting so lets see what comes of it but we can get 4 points at home and I will take my chances with everyone drooling over Dallas. Thinking under........
Still looking at some have played Indy @ -6.5 -120 and TB @ +9 -121...
Tuesday Thoughts-
NBA (short on time this what I am looking at early or played)
*Under 200.5 -110 Washington
*Raptors +4.5 -105 & NL +167
*Under 191 -105 Tor
Over 199 -110 Chi
*Twolves +8.5 +102
Den -9 -105 & Under 203.5 -102
*Over 195 -105 LAC & LAC +5
*Over 187 -115 Portland
LAL ML -320
The asterisk mean I will definetly play...
Over 141 -105 Rhode Island (5x)
Illinois -200 ML (5x) -4 -110 (4x)
Under 133 -110 Duke (3x)
Over 70 -108 UCLA 1st H (3x)
Over 77.5 -108 Zona 1st H(3x)
Nwestern +107 (3x)
FSU +10.5 -11 (1x)
I dont expect Ibekewe to be heatly enough here if heplays and they simply just can afford to lose hime.
Totals
Under 200.5 -110 (7x) Atlanta
-Reasoning behind this is somewhat logical somewhat implied. First after there last setback Wiz Guard DeShawn Stevenson said the team needed to make a better effort on defense. So thats a starting point for me. Second point is since Childress went down the Hawks have not scored 100 pts and have gone under in 3 of 4 games. Atl had topped 100 in 4 straight prior and 5 of 6. So his loss has hurt the offense IMO as the Hawks are young with questionable depth. The third point is how is ATL a 200 total when teams like Det & Cle came into Wash at 197? I mean think of it like this when ATL traveled to those destinations the totals were in the high 180's so why would a lesser offensive club(ATL) get a higher total. The simple answer is look at what Wash has done at home offensively. My response is its more about what they have done at home offensively in correleation to there totals. For some reason Wash was simply IMO getting low totals for a team was almost automatic to crack a 100pts at home...this is the saturation point IMO...where the total gets a little ahead of logic. They have been under 200 twice (Cle & Det) , right on 200 twice (NJN & Bos) and 202 and 208 to Indiana and Milw...
If you look at history bewteen the two Wiz have won all 5 and scored bewteen 94 and 104(94 , 98 ,102,103,104) while holding Atl to 85 , 72 , 99 , 101 and 84...with injuries I would once again expect to see ATL more in that 85 range rather then the 100 range. Last year ATL could not score in the paint and this year they tend to me real incosnistent from three...so that leaves the FT line and again real incosnsitent. Was is desperate for a win but get ATL and Char at home this week to correct the sinking ship. If Wiz werent cold I would laythe points but just gonna wait till half...have this about -8 ...
Under 191 -110 Toronto (4x)
-You have NO missing 2 key offensive players in Peja and West. The past 3 games they have scored 83 , 79 and 73 while continuing to play solid defense. Tor who started the season off with a run and gun approach has taken TJ Ford's mentality and buckled down defensively lately IMO(scoring low 90's as well). Allowing 83 ,87 and 97 ppg past 3. There shots per game are also down from the 85 to 90 range to 85 , 79 , 70 , 74 last 4. Past 3 games teams are 105 /252 thats 41.67 % they have also stopped putting teams on the line 20 , 21 and 12 attempts last 3.
Over 195 -105 Scaramento (3x)
- Artest returns which concerns me some as is he is a defensive whiz and Kaman & Cassell are out I believe for LAC. Kings have scored 105 or more in 5 of 7 (101 & 99 the other 2 ) and Kings have allowed at least a 100 in all road games. Kings ended a streak of allowing 100+ for 6 straight by holding Blazers to 85. Which I attribute to being down so much and taking bad shots with below average jump shooters. LAC puts opponents on the line 33 times a game and Sca is about 82% FT shooters. Outside of there last road game Clippers have scored at least 90 ppg on the road. I actually expect a close game here...
Over 187 Pacers waiting on game was momentarily off the board
-Alot bit of a strange play here. If you look at Portland lately they are playing a more up and down game. Which has resulted in alot higher scores . They have seen opponents shot nearly 51 % against them at home which could spell trouble if Indiana gets alot of wide open 3 's. Indiana on the other hand puts teams on the line nearly 30 times a game which Portland is sound from the line. Pacers allow 46% and nearly 40% from three..In 7 of 9 Blazers have allowed 100 pts with one game falling at 97. Last 5 games Indiana on the road has been awful from the floor but this should be the opponent to end that. Blazers have scored at least 96 past 4 home games and only fell below vs sound defensive teams like NO and Minny(92 &88)..
NEW: Over 198 -102 NYK (4x) , Under 204 -110 Denver (3x)
Sides
Raptors +4.5 -105 (8x) ML +170 (2x)
-As I mentioned Hornets are playing w/o 2 key players and have slumped past 3 games. Raptors are making an effort on defense and have played well ATS despite not winning on the road. Tor ATS 27-13 -3 last 43 away.
Trends
Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Wolves +9 -110 (10x) ML +360 (1/2x)
-First Minny is playing 4th in 5 nites and I have said that I feel books appear to be inflating these situational spreads. Wolves have already covered @ LAL in this spot earlier this season. Raod team is 8-2 SU in this series and Wolves have covered 4 straight and won 3 of 4 SU . Houston has struggled at home as favorite and I see this as a game that should be closer to -5 or -6. Minny didnt extend there players last nite so fatigue shouldnt be a factor. Think about like this Rockets were -10 versus the Knicks and we know minny is a stepup from them...Houston is rested but has been allowing there opponents to comeback in the 4th quarters . Basically they have NOT been putting together complete games. Rockets 9-23 ATS last 32 as home favs. Dog is 6-0 straight up last 6!!!
Bobcats +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +290(1/2x)
-Fading a slumping NJ teamoff a West Coast trip. Charlotte has alot of big bodies and with Cliff Robinson out I think they can make it interesting....
Lakers ML -310 , Nuggetts -445 and Wiz -270 (3xparlay)
just think Milwaukee is a mess with losing Villaneuva...
Bulls -6.5 -110 (3x)
Just not sure about NY without Q. Have a feeling Chi is happy to be home again. NY never really was in the game @ MSG so why here?
Leans -
Washington -6.5
Bulls -7
Denver -9
LAC +5
(could still play any of the last three)
Total leans
Under 187.5 NJN
Over 199 +102 NYK (might still play)
Under 203.5 Denver (might still play)
Team Total Best Bet
Under 97.5 -112 Memphis (3x)
Under 97.5 -113 Toronto (2x) 1st Half
NBA (short on time this what I am looking at early or played)
*Under 200.5 -110 Washington
*Raptors +4.5 -105 & NL +167
*Under 191 -105 Tor
Over 199 -110 Chi
*Twolves +8.5 +102
Den -9 -105 & Under 203.5 -102
*Over 195 -105 LAC & LAC +5
*Over 187 -115 Portland
LAL ML -320
The asterisk mean I will definetly play...
Over 141 -105 Rhode Island (5x)
Illinois -200 ML (5x) -4 -110 (4x)
Under 133 -110 Duke (3x)
Over 70 -108 UCLA 1st H (3x)
Over 77.5 -108 Zona 1st H(3x)
Nwestern +107 (3x)
FSU +10.5 -11 (1x)
I dont expect Ibekewe to be heatly enough here if heplays and they simply just can afford to lose hime.
Totals
Under 200.5 -110 (7x) Atlanta
-Reasoning behind this is somewhat logical somewhat implied. First after there last setback Wiz Guard DeShawn Stevenson said the team needed to make a better effort on defense. So thats a starting point for me. Second point is since Childress went down the Hawks have not scored 100 pts and have gone under in 3 of 4 games. Atl had topped 100 in 4 straight prior and 5 of 6. So his loss has hurt the offense IMO as the Hawks are young with questionable depth. The third point is how is ATL a 200 total when teams like Det & Cle came into Wash at 197? I mean think of it like this when ATL traveled to those destinations the totals were in the high 180's so why would a lesser offensive club(ATL) get a higher total. The simple answer is look at what Wash has done at home offensively. My response is its more about what they have done at home offensively in correleation to there totals. For some reason Wash was simply IMO getting low totals for a team was almost automatic to crack a 100pts at home...this is the saturation point IMO...where the total gets a little ahead of logic. They have been under 200 twice (Cle & Det) , right on 200 twice (NJN & Bos) and 202 and 208 to Indiana and Milw...
If you look at history bewteen the two Wiz have won all 5 and scored bewteen 94 and 104(94 , 98 ,102,103,104) while holding Atl to 85 , 72 , 99 , 101 and 84...with injuries I would once again expect to see ATL more in that 85 range rather then the 100 range. Last year ATL could not score in the paint and this year they tend to me real incosnistent from three...so that leaves the FT line and again real incosnsitent. Was is desperate for a win but get ATL and Char at home this week to correct the sinking ship. If Wiz werent cold I would laythe points but just gonna wait till half...have this about -8 ...
Under 191 -110 Toronto (4x)
-You have NO missing 2 key offensive players in Peja and West. The past 3 games they have scored 83 , 79 and 73 while continuing to play solid defense. Tor who started the season off with a run and gun approach has taken TJ Ford's mentality and buckled down defensively lately IMO(scoring low 90's as well). Allowing 83 ,87 and 97 ppg past 3. There shots per game are also down from the 85 to 90 range to 85 , 79 , 70 , 74 last 4. Past 3 games teams are 105 /252 thats 41.67 % they have also stopped putting teams on the line 20 , 21 and 12 attempts last 3.
Over 195 -105 Scaramento (3x)
- Artest returns which concerns me some as is he is a defensive whiz and Kaman & Cassell are out I believe for LAC. Kings have scored 105 or more in 5 of 7 (101 & 99 the other 2 ) and Kings have allowed at least a 100 in all road games. Kings ended a streak of allowing 100+ for 6 straight by holding Blazers to 85. Which I attribute to being down so much and taking bad shots with below average jump shooters. LAC puts opponents on the line 33 times a game and Sca is about 82% FT shooters. Outside of there last road game Clippers have scored at least 90 ppg on the road. I actually expect a close game here...
Over 187 Pacers waiting on game was momentarily off the board
-Alot bit of a strange play here. If you look at Portland lately they are playing a more up and down game. Which has resulted in alot higher scores . They have seen opponents shot nearly 51 % against them at home which could spell trouble if Indiana gets alot of wide open 3 's. Indiana on the other hand puts teams on the line nearly 30 times a game which Portland is sound from the line. Pacers allow 46% and nearly 40% from three..In 7 of 9 Blazers have allowed 100 pts with one game falling at 97. Last 5 games Indiana on the road has been awful from the floor but this should be the opponent to end that. Blazers have scored at least 96 past 4 home games and only fell below vs sound defensive teams like NO and Minny(92 &88)..
NEW: Over 198 -102 NYK (4x) , Under 204 -110 Denver (3x)
Sides
Raptors +4.5 -105 (8x) ML +170 (2x)
-As I mentioned Hornets are playing w/o 2 key players and have slumped past 3 games. Raptors are making an effort on defense and have played well ATS despite not winning on the road. Tor ATS 27-13 -3 last 43 away.
Trends
Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Wolves +9 -110 (10x) ML +360 (1/2x)
-First Minny is playing 4th in 5 nites and I have said that I feel books appear to be inflating these situational spreads. Wolves have already covered @ LAL in this spot earlier this season. Raod team is 8-2 SU in this series and Wolves have covered 4 straight and won 3 of 4 SU . Houston has struggled at home as favorite and I see this as a game that should be closer to -5 or -6. Minny didnt extend there players last nite so fatigue shouldnt be a factor. Think about like this Rockets were -10 versus the Knicks and we know minny is a stepup from them...Houston is rested but has been allowing there opponents to comeback in the 4th quarters . Basically they have NOT been putting together complete games. Rockets 9-23 ATS last 32 as home favs. Dog is 6-0 straight up last 6!!!
Bobcats +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +290(1/2x)
-Fading a slumping NJ teamoff a West Coast trip. Charlotte has alot of big bodies and with Cliff Robinson out I think they can make it interesting....
Lakers ML -310 , Nuggetts -445 and Wiz -270 (3xparlay)
just think Milwaukee is a mess with losing Villaneuva...
Bulls -6.5 -110 (3x)
Just not sure about NY without Q. Have a feeling Chi is happy to be home again. NY never really was in the game @ MSG so why here?
Leans -
Washington -6.5
Bulls -7
Denver -9
LAC +5
(could still play any of the last three)
Total leans
Under 187.5 NJN
Over 199 +102 NYK (might still play)
Under 203.5 Denver (might still play)
Team Total Best Bet
Under 97.5 -112 Memphis (3x)
Under 97.5 -113 Toronto (2x) 1st Half
Monday, November 27, 2006
This week in FOOTBALL (NFL & NCAAF)
Hawaii see -7.5 -105 (looking to get -7 or better)
Under 73 -105 (anything better then 72) (8x)
Really Hawaii has played only 2 quality teams at home Nevada and Purdue. In those games they scored 41 and 42 and failed to cover big DD spreads . Oregon State walks in with a better defense then both of those programs and probably will make an effort to establish the run with Bernard to keep it away from Hawaii's offense. One problem is Hawaii is very tough against the run see Purdue and Nevada's numbers running the ball. Oregon State off a tough home win vs rival Oregon has not impressed me on the road...smoked @ Boise State 42 -14 , lost @ UCLA while winning @ Stanford , @ Zona , and @Wash. The true story though is the offense really struggles away. So much they only won @ Zona cause the starting QB was out (17-10 ) , they won @ Wash when Stanback got hurt as they trailed 14-10 at the half. Purdue and Nevada can throw teh ball better then Matt Moore and company so I wouldnt expect more then 24 pts. With Hawaii I would expect 38 -42 points at most. If they get a chance late I think Hawaii might run the ball with a lead rather then throw. Oregon State was dogged at Boise and Wash by 8 points so this line is actually real cheap. Hawaii has shown they are every good as Boise IMO...so I am looking for 38-24 game...
Houston playing either - 4-120 (10x) or ML
Kolb said after the loss at SoMiss that Houston would run the table and see SoMiss in the Championship Game...well here they are. Kolb is a senior and you know this means alot to him. Houston is trying to avenge a loss @ SoMiss and lets face it they are the better team. They get a home game here being played @ Reliant Stadium. I would play this game up to -6 as I expect a TD win here by the Cougars. Kolb was able to throw for 330 yards in the 1st meeting and SoMiss benefited from good field position. They also have 2 weeks to prepare. This is a team that beat Ok State and lost by 1 @ Miami. The Golden Eagles are young at QB and RB and that inexperience wil hurt them along with there over reliance on there defense. Last 2 years Kolb has thrown for 300+ against SoMiss and 2 years ago as 17 pt dogs lost in ot @ SoMiss. His only poor game was a Freshman so thi sis his 5th start versus them...and lately SoMiss has shown a few holes in there pass defense....
West Virgina-8 -110 (was hoping for -7 but exploded today to -10) (10x)
Just look at it like this we have a double edges sword. WVU losing at home presented value in the line cause this surely would have been double digits and should be. It also makes you wonder about there motivation since they realy cant win the Big East now but they dont want to lose 2 straight at home IMO. The bottomline is RU is still young and struggles offensively on the road. WVU is tough to run about 3 YPC and that presents a problem for Rutgers. While RU is tough against the run this is a different type attack. RU had trouble winning @ USF and @ UNC and lost @ Cincy how in teh world can they win @ WVU off a home loss??
Pat White did hurt his ankle but I expect him to be okay. For all the talk about the win vs Lville remember they made huge comeback by pressuring Brohm and won by just 3 as 6 pt HOME DOGS. They were dogs at Pitt by 6 while Lville ws -10. True Pitt was playing well when RU came to town and RU started the spiral . I know its different teams but WVU won rather easily @ Rutgers last year. Definetly getting a sleeping giant as WVU scored only 19 pts and lost at home...hoping for -7 but will play under -10......
ACC Championship
GaTech ML -133 (10x)
People seem to be handing WF to much credit after there nice win @ Maryland after the beating that was delivered to them at home by VaTech. As well as dissing GT for Ball's performance and late loss over Georgia. WhatI see here is that GT has the experience factor working. Ball and Calvin Johnson have played in numerous big games while Riley SKinner and WF in some ways are happy to be here. Dont think even they felt they would be playing for the Championship and the writers had them picked to finish last and that was waith Mauck and Andrews in the mix. I think GT takes away the running game for WF and The Deacon Defense can be thrown on. Hollenbach killed the Terps with 3 Ints. WF is 2nd to last in the ACC in pass defense enter 6'5 Calvin Johnson. Feel free to correct me but I dont see WF having any corners even at 6' let alone near 6'5. Choice has been playing well of late even w/o much of a passing game. GT has defeated VaTech and Miami while out playing but losing to ND in there opener(2 losses by FG's). If you see this line as HIGH I owuld disagree. Ask yourself if GT would have been favored in Maryland last week and I would say by at least -4. The Terps are just a very medicore ACC team. Play GT up to -4 IMO.....
Felt this line should have been closer to 10 pts. Everything is clicking for USC now but they have still struggled on the road in conference play outside of Stanford. UCLA seems to have regained some momentum with wins over Oregon State and @ ASU. Lets see if the Trojan offense can score on a solid defense ...expecting a 27-17 game....looking at under 48..
Looking at or Played but havent commented:
Ohio U +3.5 -115 (6x) ML +139 (2x) and Under (lean wait till half)
(Big favs) Louisville -27 -105 and Cal -28 -105 as well as 1st Half.. -16.5 -105 on both
Hawaii see -7.5 -105 (looking to get -7 or better)
Under 73 -105 (anything better then 72) (8x)
Really Hawaii has played only 2 quality teams at home Nevada and Purdue. In those games they scored 41 and 42 and failed to cover big DD spreads . Oregon State walks in with a better defense then both of those programs and probably will make an effort to establish the run with Bernard to keep it away from Hawaii's offense. One problem is Hawaii is very tough against the run see Purdue and Nevada's numbers running the ball. Oregon State off a tough home win vs rival Oregon has not impressed me on the road...smoked @ Boise State 42 -14 , lost @ UCLA while winning @ Stanford , @ Zona , and @Wash. The true story though is the offense really struggles away. So much they only won @ Zona cause the starting QB was out (17-10 ) , they won @ Wash when Stanback got hurt as they trailed 14-10 at the half. Purdue and Nevada can throw teh ball better then Matt Moore and company so I wouldnt expect more then 24 pts. With Hawaii I would expect 38 -42 points at most. If they get a chance late I think Hawaii might run the ball with a lead rather then throw. Oregon State was dogged at Boise and Wash by 8 points so this line is actually real cheap. Hawaii has shown they are every good as Boise IMO...so I am looking for 38-24 game...
Houston playing either - 4-120 (10x) or ML
Kolb said after the loss at SoMiss that Houston would run the table and see SoMiss in the Championship Game...well here they are. Kolb is a senior and you know this means alot to him. Houston is trying to avenge a loss @ SoMiss and lets face it they are the better team. They get a home game here being played @ Reliant Stadium. I would play this game up to -6 as I expect a TD win here by the Cougars. Kolb was able to throw for 330 yards in the 1st meeting and SoMiss benefited from good field position. They also have 2 weeks to prepare. This is a team that beat Ok State and lost by 1 @ Miami. The Golden Eagles are young at QB and RB and that inexperience wil hurt them along with there over reliance on there defense. Last 2 years Kolb has thrown for 300+ against SoMiss and 2 years ago as 17 pt dogs lost in ot @ SoMiss. His only poor game was a Freshman so thi sis his 5th start versus them...and lately SoMiss has shown a few holes in there pass defense....
West Virgina-8 -110 (was hoping for -7 but exploded today to -10) (10x)
Just look at it like this we have a double edges sword. WVU losing at home presented value in the line cause this surely would have been double digits and should be. It also makes you wonder about there motivation since they realy cant win the Big East now but they dont want to lose 2 straight at home IMO. The bottomline is RU is still young and struggles offensively on the road. WVU is tough to run about 3 YPC and that presents a problem for Rutgers. While RU is tough against the run this is a different type attack. RU had trouble winning @ USF and @ UNC and lost @ Cincy how in teh world can they win @ WVU off a home loss??
Pat White did hurt his ankle but I expect him to be okay. For all the talk about the win vs Lville remember they made huge comeback by pressuring Brohm and won by just 3 as 6 pt HOME DOGS. They were dogs at Pitt by 6 while Lville ws -10. True Pitt was playing well when RU came to town and RU started the spiral . I know its different teams but WVU won rather easily @ Rutgers last year. Definetly getting a sleeping giant as WVU scored only 19 pts and lost at home...hoping for -7 but will play under -10......
ACC Championship
GaTech ML -133 (10x)
People seem to be handing WF to much credit after there nice win @ Maryland after the beating that was delivered to them at home by VaTech. As well as dissing GT for Ball's performance and late loss over Georgia. WhatI see here is that GT has the experience factor working. Ball and Calvin Johnson have played in numerous big games while Riley SKinner and WF in some ways are happy to be here. Dont think even they felt they would be playing for the Championship and the writers had them picked to finish last and that was waith Mauck and Andrews in the mix. I think GT takes away the running game for WF and The Deacon Defense can be thrown on. Hollenbach killed the Terps with 3 Ints. WF is 2nd to last in the ACC in pass defense enter 6'5 Calvin Johnson. Feel free to correct me but I dont see WF having any corners even at 6' let alone near 6'5. Choice has been playing well of late even w/o much of a passing game. GT has defeated VaTech and Miami while out playing but losing to ND in there opener(2 losses by FG's). If you see this line as HIGH I owuld disagree. Ask yourself if GT would have been favored in Maryland last week and I would say by at least -4. The Terps are just a very medicore ACC team. Play GT up to -4 IMO.....
Army +21 -120 (5x) Lean ov 49 -101
Last few weeks Army has fallen apart but I thought they played well in spurts @ ND. They managed wins @ Baylor and were a goal stand away from winning @ A&M. Army did some good things that day 5 drives of more then 10 plays and 3 drives of 50 + yds (50 , 76 and 80). For whatever reason starting with Rice the Army squad just began to unravel. This is it though for Army after a disappointing season where expectations were higher. Then can erase alot but defeating Navy and I am hoping they play like they did back early in the season. Take the AF meeting where I feel the final score is so misleading...Army about to take the lead mid 1st Q fumbles and watches it go 98 yds the other way and that semed to deflate them. Next thing you know AF is hanging FIVE 2nd quarter TDs on them (the only Q the offense scored)....If Army puts this season behind them focuses on this game and keeps there defense off the field for long stretches I think they can make this a game. They apppeared to be okay defensively against the AF run attack so maybe there is hope..Navy has been smoking hot but plating teams like Temple , Duke and EMU who just cant defend the option helps..Army at least has experience doing so....
Cal -16.5 -105 1st half (wait)(5x)
The Cal defense has been a disappoint at times this season but Stanford has scored more then 10 points once in the past 2 months. They did it @ Wash another team w/o its starting QB. They needed a pick 6 and somewhat flukish 75Yd TD pass to get 20 points that day. Otherwise they have 0 , 3, 10 on the road . The 10 was @ ND and the TD ws in the 4th Q on I believe a HB option pass. So after 2 losses and playing bad run defense I expect Cal to just jam it down Stanfords throat.....expecting 21-3 or so at half...
TCU -14 -120 (5x) could middle line exploded to -17.5
Played this early on thing TCU is starting to click offensively now that they are healthy and blowing teams out. AF seems to be regressing and was torched at home by TCU last year. Chances were they werent going to score much here so I could see a 31-14 or 35-14 win ....only rpoblem is now this line is running and I might just middle somekey numbers.. AF has lost @ 2 of the weaker conference opponents (UNLV and SDST)....and you just cant run on TCU...should be a long day for them....
Under 50 -105 SJST (3x)
Expecting alot of running here. I think Fresno defense can play well as long as it doesnt stay on the field long. While SJ impressed me by holding Boise to just 23 pts a few weeks back...Fresno had scored 21 or less on the road until facing LTech who is awful defensively...
UCLA +14 -111 (5x)Felt this line should have been closer to 10 pts. Everything is clicking for USC now but they have still struggled on the road in conference play outside of Stanford. UCLA seems to have regained some momentum with wins over Oregon State and @ ASU. Lets see if the Trojan offense can score on a solid defense ...expecting a 27-17 game....looking at under 48..
Looking at or Played but havent commented:
Ohio U +3.5 -115 (6x) ML +139 (2x) and Under (lean wait till half)
(Big favs) Louisville -27 -105 and Cal -28 -105 as well as 1st Half.. -16.5 -105 on both
Monday November 27th Thoughts
NFL
For what its worth earlier in the week I made a play on GB +9.5(5x). After a week not so sure I like the play anymore and the line is +10.5 now. Didnt like the fact SEA OL is banged up and Hasselback has to be rusty with long layoff. It doesnt seem like he is obvioulsy ready to play. GB run defense is solid and GB solid dog of 6 or better past few years. Alot of GB injuries as well though...looked for GB to bounce back off SHUTOUT.....not sure anymore....
NBA
Miami Heat ML -145 (5x) middled with Philly +3.5 -105 (6x)
Over 195 -121 (7x)
Something just seems odd at how this line opened at -3-105 and how has plus vig. Havent seen one reason to take Philly...so a safe middle with 1.25 unit risk basically..Also the Philly team total went from 96 to 97 with really no move at all in the total maybe 3 dollars on the vig side.....VERY ODD
With Riley's lineup shuffling the offense has produced 100 points in consecutive games for the 1st time this season (and nearly consecutive wins) . The emergence of Dorrell Wright(6'8 F/G) will give Miami the edge on the glass which Philly will attempt to neutralize with its advantage in shooting the three. Though Miami is much better at home from beyond the arc. In the 1st meeting Miami lead by 7 at half but collapsed in the 2nd ! This game was played without Jason Williams and with little contribution from Wright or Kapuano...Shaq was out though. Philly has had injuries issues with Webber and Stephen Hunter missing significant time. CWebb is still out and Hunter still questionable. Philly has received increased contributions from Randolph in there absence and new found confidence in Willie Green. Both teams shot poor from the FT line in the 1st meeting yet the game soared into the 200's. Last 2 games Heat are 53 / 70 (76%) from the FT line. While Philly games average about 60-65 FT's....which are great for overs.. I like the over cause basically I have confidence in Philly getting 95 , 96 pts and Miami again crackinga 100..just seeing if I can get some better numbers...This has become a home DOMINANTED series with the home team going 9 -1 and Miami winning there last 5 at home aftre losing 5 straight at home to Philly. Home team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings , Philly 1-4 ATS last 5 in Miami and only once has Philly lost by less then 10 pts in Miami (8 points). Thanks to the Heat struggles 1-6 ATS at home 2-5 SU you get the Heat who were favored by 3 in philly to -3 at home...
Timberwolves +9.5 -110 (8x) ML +400 (1/2x)
Under 184.5 -110 (4x)
I guess I continue to feel that Minny is simply underrated. The Mavs are on fire and have there last 3 home opponents in check offensively 73 , 80 , 84 . However that was a Peja and West - less Hornets , a Wiz team that went ICE COLD in the 2nd H(stink on the road) and ended with 80 and the Grizz wth 84 can be offensively challenged. I thought +6 was about where this should be. Couple games back Dal was only -10 to Memphis , they were only -10 to the Hornets w/o 2 key players. Both meetings in Dal last year the MAVS needed to pull away in the 4th quarter to win by 3 and 6 points. Minny has played well versus Dallas in the past but I caution that point cause this is a new Minny team. With Foye and Craigh Smith getting some minutes now. Wally gone and enter Ricky Davis. Blount playing at Center over the other rejects , Mike James at the point...but Dallas is basically the same with a difference in there bench. The key will be defending Dallas deep ball...With Dal holding opponnets to about 40% past 5 games and Minny scoring bewteen 76-88 last 5 away I figure Wolves to be about 85 pts here. If I feel Minny is the play then so must be the under with Dallas around 92 pts...Both teams are hot but Dallas going for 9th straight makes me feel this is FAT! During the streak at home DAL was -4 Chi , -10 Mem , -5 Wiz , and -9.5 NO ....DOG is 6-1 ATS last 7 series...and 16-5 ATS last 21 . The UNDER is 19-7 Last 26 away Minny and 29-8 for Dallas against teh Northwest divsion.
Magic +6 -108 (4x) ML +210 (1/2x)
Over 197.5 -108 (6x)
The Magic have played well against the West excluding the loss @ Memphis which they fell apart in the 4th quarter after leading throughout. They defeated Seattle and Denver at home plus winning @ Minny. The Jazz have struggled somewhat at home vs East teams with narrow defeats over Detriot and Toronto. They lost @ NJ but won close games in MILW and Boston earlier. As for situational analysis Utah does host SA on Wednesday and Orl begins a 6 game road trip here. The Jazz finally after 4 huge comebacks were abit short in GS. Utah is off a loss but could they be thinking more about SA here? With the struggles ORL has had away they certainly are focused on getting off the trip on the right foot. Orl is 2-8 SU past 10 in Utah but are 2-3 SU losing by 2,5 , and 7 pts last 5 in Utah. These teams get to the FT line alot avg 30 + FT attempts and combined for in the 70's in the meetings last year. The Magic defense seems to start good and then fade as the road games progress (1st H 43 pts and 2nd H 53 pts allowed) but Utah avgs 109 at home starting 55 1st H points...
To me ORL keys are simple 3 pt shooting percentage and FT percentage... Magic are 7-1 L8 as DOG and 13-5-2 ATS vs Northwest. Utah 5-12-1 L18 as favorite and 3-9-1 last 13 vs East.
The Over is 20-6 for Utah L26 vs East and Over is 21-8 following aUtah SU loss. Orl is also 5-0-1 L 6 meetings.
Warriors + 4 -110 (6x) ML +168 (1.5x)
Under 196 -105 (3x)
We all know about SA back to back issues now 2-2 ATS this year but just 9-20 past 29 ATS in these spots. Last time out I argued cause we were so in tune to these spots books had shaded these situations. In this matchup I dont think that has happened. However I cant say for sure with Baron Davis being Out and Giniboli being Out. Clearly a PG Baron Davis is the more valuable loss and not sure exactly how this has been shaded in the line. Pietrus is also a player I would like to see active here after missing SAT with the stomach flu. Recently GS has been +1 at home to Utah and won as well as +3.5 to Suns but losing on a buzzer beater. So where is SA inrelation to those teams? Well Spurs have been -6 or -7 to NYK , Port , and Tor on the road. All 3 are bottomfeeders while right now GS has proven to be one of the better teams in the league. last nite SEA gave SA a game till they fell to pieces late and were only -4. Clearly GS is better then Sea and love that SA has Utah on deck. They also are playing 34d in 4 nites ...Dallas on Fri , @ Port on Sun and here @ GS.
Spurs have won last 3 in GS and are 3-2 SU last 5 but GS own a 2 and 3 pt loss in this span. SA is 7-0 away and ATS!! I think thats due to the fact they have been undervalued a few times away...dogged twice ...and as I said 3 biggest spreads were to 3 bad teams andthe higgest number was -7. All the trend point to GS here :
GS 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as small home dog
GS 8-1 ATS L9 at home
GS 38-13-3 as home Dog
GS 25-9 ATS off SU off win of 10+
Home team 8-3 ATS
Like the under here but wonder was GS defense vs Utah the balancing act of there effort vs DEN. Think Den shoot 55% the worst GS has allowed and Utah 32% the best GS has allowed.. Spurs only scoring lows 90's in back to backs and GS played well against Utahs big front line. Havent decided yet with alot of over trends but it seems unlikely SA hits a 100...
TEAM TOTALS
Over 99 -104 Miami (2.5x)
Over 96 -108 Philly (1x)
Under 88 -108 Minny (1.5x)
Under 96.5 -110 Dal (2x)
Over 102 -105 Utah (2x)
Over 96 -110 Orl (1x)
Under 100 -108 SA (1.5x)
1stH
Ov 95.5 -108 Miami (2x)
Under 97.5 -123 SA (2x)
NCAAB
NFL
For what its worth earlier in the week I made a play on GB +9.5(5x). After a week not so sure I like the play anymore and the line is +10.5 now. Didnt like the fact SEA OL is banged up and Hasselback has to be rusty with long layoff. It doesnt seem like he is obvioulsy ready to play. GB run defense is solid and GB solid dog of 6 or better past few years. Alot of GB injuries as well though...looked for GB to bounce back off SHUTOUT.....not sure anymore....
NBA
Miami Heat ML -145 (5x) middled with Philly +3.5 -105 (6x)
Over 195 -121 (7x)
Something just seems odd at how this line opened at -3-105 and how has plus vig. Havent seen one reason to take Philly...so a safe middle with 1.25 unit risk basically..Also the Philly team total went from 96 to 97 with really no move at all in the total maybe 3 dollars on the vig side.....VERY ODD
With Riley's lineup shuffling the offense has produced 100 points in consecutive games for the 1st time this season (and nearly consecutive wins) . The emergence of Dorrell Wright(6'8 F/G) will give Miami the edge on the glass which Philly will attempt to neutralize with its advantage in shooting the three. Though Miami is much better at home from beyond the arc. In the 1st meeting Miami lead by 7 at half but collapsed in the 2nd ! This game was played without Jason Williams and with little contribution from Wright or Kapuano...Shaq was out though. Philly has had injuries issues with Webber and Stephen Hunter missing significant time. CWebb is still out and Hunter still questionable. Philly has received increased contributions from Randolph in there absence and new found confidence in Willie Green. Both teams shot poor from the FT line in the 1st meeting yet the game soared into the 200's. Last 2 games Heat are 53 / 70 (76%) from the FT line. While Philly games average about 60-65 FT's....which are great for overs.. I like the over cause basically I have confidence in Philly getting 95 , 96 pts and Miami again crackinga 100..just seeing if I can get some better numbers...This has become a home DOMINANTED series with the home team going 9 -1 and Miami winning there last 5 at home aftre losing 5 straight at home to Philly. Home team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings , Philly 1-4 ATS last 5 in Miami and only once has Philly lost by less then 10 pts in Miami (8 points). Thanks to the Heat struggles 1-6 ATS at home 2-5 SU you get the Heat who were favored by 3 in philly to -3 at home...
Timberwolves +9.5 -110 (8x) ML +400 (1/2x)
Under 184.5 -110 (4x)
I guess I continue to feel that Minny is simply underrated. The Mavs are on fire and have there last 3 home opponents in check offensively 73 , 80 , 84 . However that was a Peja and West - less Hornets , a Wiz team that went ICE COLD in the 2nd H(stink on the road) and ended with 80 and the Grizz wth 84 can be offensively challenged. I thought +6 was about where this should be. Couple games back Dal was only -10 to Memphis , they were only -10 to the Hornets w/o 2 key players. Both meetings in Dal last year the MAVS needed to pull away in the 4th quarter to win by 3 and 6 points. Minny has played well versus Dallas in the past but I caution that point cause this is a new Minny team. With Foye and Craigh Smith getting some minutes now. Wally gone and enter Ricky Davis. Blount playing at Center over the other rejects , Mike James at the point...but Dallas is basically the same with a difference in there bench. The key will be defending Dallas deep ball...With Dal holding opponnets to about 40% past 5 games and Minny scoring bewteen 76-88 last 5 away I figure Wolves to be about 85 pts here. If I feel Minny is the play then so must be the under with Dallas around 92 pts...Both teams are hot but Dallas going for 9th straight makes me feel this is FAT! During the streak at home DAL was -4 Chi , -10 Mem , -5 Wiz , and -9.5 NO ....DOG is 6-1 ATS last 7 series...and 16-5 ATS last 21 . The UNDER is 19-7 Last 26 away Minny and 29-8 for Dallas against teh Northwest divsion.
Magic +6 -108 (4x) ML +210 (1/2x)
Over 197.5 -108 (6x)
The Magic have played well against the West excluding the loss @ Memphis which they fell apart in the 4th quarter after leading throughout. They defeated Seattle and Denver at home plus winning @ Minny. The Jazz have struggled somewhat at home vs East teams with narrow defeats over Detriot and Toronto. They lost @ NJ but won close games in MILW and Boston earlier. As for situational analysis Utah does host SA on Wednesday and Orl begins a 6 game road trip here. The Jazz finally after 4 huge comebacks were abit short in GS. Utah is off a loss but could they be thinking more about SA here? With the struggles ORL has had away they certainly are focused on getting off the trip on the right foot. Orl is 2-8 SU past 10 in Utah but are 2-3 SU losing by 2,5 , and 7 pts last 5 in Utah. These teams get to the FT line alot avg 30 + FT attempts and combined for in the 70's in the meetings last year. The Magic defense seems to start good and then fade as the road games progress (1st H 43 pts and 2nd H 53 pts allowed) but Utah avgs 109 at home starting 55 1st H points...
To me ORL keys are simple 3 pt shooting percentage and FT percentage... Magic are 7-1 L8 as DOG and 13-5-2 ATS vs Northwest. Utah 5-12-1 L18 as favorite and 3-9-1 last 13 vs East.
The Over is 20-6 for Utah L26 vs East and Over is 21-8 following aUtah SU loss. Orl is also 5-0-1 L 6 meetings.
Warriors + 4 -110 (6x) ML +168 (1.5x)
Under 196 -105 (3x)
We all know about SA back to back issues now 2-2 ATS this year but just 9-20 past 29 ATS in these spots. Last time out I argued cause we were so in tune to these spots books had shaded these situations. In this matchup I dont think that has happened. However I cant say for sure with Baron Davis being Out and Giniboli being Out. Clearly a PG Baron Davis is the more valuable loss and not sure exactly how this has been shaded in the line. Pietrus is also a player I would like to see active here after missing SAT with the stomach flu. Recently GS has been +1 at home to Utah and won as well as +3.5 to Suns but losing on a buzzer beater. So where is SA inrelation to those teams? Well Spurs have been -6 or -7 to NYK , Port , and Tor on the road. All 3 are bottomfeeders while right now GS has proven to be one of the better teams in the league. last nite SEA gave SA a game till they fell to pieces late and were only -4. Clearly GS is better then Sea and love that SA has Utah on deck. They also are playing 34d in 4 nites ...Dallas on Fri , @ Port on Sun and here @ GS.
Spurs have won last 3 in GS and are 3-2 SU last 5 but GS own a 2 and 3 pt loss in this span. SA is 7-0 away and ATS!! I think thats due to the fact they have been undervalued a few times away...dogged twice ...and as I said 3 biggest spreads were to 3 bad teams andthe higgest number was -7. All the trend point to GS here :
GS 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as small home dog
GS 8-1 ATS L9 at home
GS 38-13-3 as home Dog
GS 25-9 ATS off SU off win of 10+
Home team 8-3 ATS
Like the under here but wonder was GS defense vs Utah the balancing act of there effort vs DEN. Think Den shoot 55% the worst GS has allowed and Utah 32% the best GS has allowed.. Spurs only scoring lows 90's in back to backs and GS played well against Utahs big front line. Havent decided yet with alot of over trends but it seems unlikely SA hits a 100...
TEAM TOTALS
Over 99 -104 Miami (2.5x)
Over 96 -108 Philly (1x)
Under 88 -108 Minny (1.5x)
Under 96.5 -110 Dal (2x)
Over 102 -105 Utah (2x)
Over 96 -110 Orl (1x)
Under 100 -108 SA (1.5x)
1stH
Ov 95.5 -108 Miami (2x)
Under 97.5 -123 SA (2x)
NCAAB
Michigan ML -130(3x) 2nd H Mich -2 -125 (3x) Atsur was injured LOSS BOTH
-Basically we have 4 seniors @ Michigan who have failed to live up to expectations versus a NCST looking to rebuild under Sidney Lowe. I hate that this is Michigans 1stroad teast but having 4 senior starters hopefully helps overcome that. Also I dont like some of the Wolfpacks D %'s see Wofford and Gardner Webb from the floor....Both teams struglling from teh FT line but I feel that beside that and home court Mich has all the edges...
Over 151 -109 Wofford (1x) LOSS
Greensboro -4 -110 (5x)WIN 2nd H Greensboro +2 -121 (2x) WIN
-This game will see a ton 3 pt attempts clearly the key is how manythe hit. Wofford allowing 50% from the floor and they havent exactly played anyone outside of Ciny who they beat. Wofford historically has struggled @ Greensboro..
Buffalo +8.5 -110 (8x) WIN ML +288(1x) WIN
- basically you have a Buff team shooting below 40% on the year and playing @ Temple...never a good mix. Gone is Coach Cheaney and enter Fran Dunphy in his 1st game as head coach at home and I know he is putting a significant amount of pressure on himself to win this game. Look at how the man talks about Big 5 basketball...he says he is now the caretaker of Temple bball. Temple has been hit with player losses withCollins gradutaing , Marshall injured and Tynsdale ineligible early at least 6 games. The offense is on Salisbury shoulders and the kid can shot the rock but his shot selction in the past was poor. He really appears to be there lone scorer. Looking for a low scoring grind it out game. Buff has some nice road wins & neutral court wins Iona , Canisus , Miami , Cle State.
Rider +4.5 -110 (3x)WIN ML +188 (1x) WIN/MIDDLE 2nd H ML Drexel -144(3x)LOSS
-Basically the home teams wins this series. Drexel has not played well on the road in recent times and is chalk. Rider played them tight at Drexel last season before fading late...
Under 58 -132 1st h (2x)Loss Under 124 -112 (2x) Gtown WIN
Ball State +9 +101 (2x) Loss ball State +16.5 -110 (2x) WIN
2nd H +6.5 -118(3x)WIN
-Expecting Ball State in the low 50's here and the Hoyas are questionable to cover so I dont think they crack 70. The Thompson brothers square off and with Gtown struggling think its not a blowout. Possibly 2nd H under...
StPeters +11.5 -110 (7x)LOSS
On paper this look strange but this is a big rivalry game. While KeeKee Clark is gone sharp shootin Orta & Sowell remain(new head coach and believe they have SH ties). SH also had some turnover and its tough to get a feel for them early. Really this is a play against SH as big chalk in rivalry game which was decided by 9 last year. Pirates lost Whitney and Copeland as well. Keydren Clark actually played poorly last year in this matchup with 10 turnovers and 23 pts...SPC is 8-2 ATS past 10 meetings...however please note in many years they were 20+ pt dogs and recently low teens...
ULL +12 -109 (3x) WIN
Lets see how Tenny rebounds after MSG...ULL has thebig men to possibly give them trouble lets see...
2nd H
Over 70 -108 Temple (2x) LOSS
George Mason 6 -121 (2x) WIN
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