Week 6 NFL

PLAYS :

This weeks top two In my opinion :
Dallas Cowboys +5 and +210ML
Cheifs +3.5 -130 and +130 or better ML


Packers -2.5 -125 and UND 41
Jaguars -6.5
Miami +5
Ravens -9.5 (strong lean)
TB -2.5 (lean)

Comments:
Dallas +4.5 (and ML)

If you read my ramble then the Monday Nite game went down exactly as planned. No , I did not foresee Romo throwing so many picks or Buffalo having 3 non offensive TDS. However I did know the line was way too high , I did understand that situational it was a rough spot for Dallas playing 3rd away in 4 weeks a long way from home veresus a team getting its 1st MNF game in 14 years , I did know that Buffalo held a huge advantage in Special teams. They dont play the games on paper and you have to look and see what will change performances positive or negative.

Let me say this Sportsbooks dont create traps the human mind does. Books dont adjust lines very quickly and people think cause of 1 or 2 games lines look shady. When the yanks play poorly dont they still lay -200?? So keep that in the back of your mind. There is a method to there madness and unless they are getting killed by being OFF on a particular teams value the adjustments tend to be gradual.

I promise you this Dallas will look nothing like that on Sunday . They pressured Romo some and he just played poorly. This is not a road game and you would hope his comfort level increases at home even against NE. The difference here is you look at Buffalo across the field and you know you are the better team. Whether you mean to or not you you letdown IMO. Look Dallas played like shit and still managed to win. Take something from that.

There is no way that NE should go into Dallas laying 4.5 pts..no way. What happened last year when undefeated INDY went to DAL as a PK?? Has anyone given the DAL defense any props?? They have improved alot since the opener.

I dont see why this game is anything other then a PK'em except good ole public MISperception. My how things have changed...week 2 NE is only -3.5 at home vs SD but now is -4.5 @ Dallas.....I can assure you DAL is better then SD and that NE probably hasnt improved any the past few weeks even with Rodney Harrision's return. Read my ramble about NE being overrated in yesterdays game comments as well. I think Cle did a much better job on offense against the NE defense then Buffalo did at home vs Dallas. I wont even get into Xs and Os cause the line is bad and I try to bust inflated lines.....

DALLAS +4.5 & ML


Other week 6 Thoughts:

Bengals travel to Kansas City :
Right now the Bengals have a crisis at LB. They lost Lemar Marshall in there last game. Landon Johnson who left early has returned to practice and should play. However is Dhani Jones , Anthony Schlegel and Landon Johnson anything to get excited about?? We will have to wait and see what happens with Caleb Miller , Richard Jenty and Ahmad Brooks. We know now Jenty wont return and the other two are gametime decisions who havent praticed this week so looking unlikely. Larry Johnson ! While they are not exactly superstars but at least they arent guys coming off the streets either. So right now help doesnt appear on the way. The Bengals have not been able to stop the run due to the LB situation just ask Jamal Lewis. You have to think Larry Johnson off a 9 carry 12 yard performance is looking for an opportunity to make that a distant memory. The man has pride and an ego. We now know that Huard will start. You have to like what yo have seen from Dwayne Bowe. Since the loss to the Bengals last year the Cheifs are 7-2 at home losing to only Balt and now Jax. See something in common ?? Sick defenses maybe. Actually while we all agree KC offense isnt much to speak of look at there opponents. Week 1 you have to almost throw out cause Huard and LJ barely played in preseason. Since then @Chi , Minny , @ Sd , Jax...thats pretty damn tough and Cincy is nowhere near those teams. KC biggest problem on offense seems to be there OL. Which hopefully fares better versus a more manageable defense. Cincy is not for an OCT team . To me this is still the same KC team as last year that made the playoffs minus Roaf but with Bowe and Edwards. The Bengals are a watered down version that everyone expects to play better. I cant see why they will......

Cincy has to wonder about Willie Anderson ( now OUT I believe) and Rudi Johnson still. Though Kenny Watson is fine in my eyes. The problem with them lies in my rant yesterday. They lost Chris Henry to suspension and dont have any WR options after the TJ / CJ duo(67 of 101 receptions). They do not have a pass catching TE . Which means you have two options in the passing game or a check down to Watson....hard to move the ball like that even with studs. KC defense has played very well and Jax used to big plays to get there TDs. Now comes word CB Jonathan Joseph is OUT for the game because of a team policy drug violation. Marvin Lewis is right these guys dont have football as #1 on there mind . ( Though it was an offseason incident I believe)

Last year in the Opener the Bengals won 23-10 @ Arrowhead. However hard to weigh that game as KC loses there star QB in that game with the concussion that caused an 11 minute delay. At this point why lay points with Cincy on the road ??? As of now I see the value in the Cheifs and maybe UNDER 42.

Play: KC @ +3.5 and ML

Hou @ Jacksonville :

You have to respect Houston past history versus Jax going 8-2 ATS past 10 meetings and the Jaguars failure as a favorite in recent opportunities. I just think the teams are headed in different directions. The Jags lost there opener and have rebounded the past few weeks to the point where there defense is gonna make it tough to get any yards on the ground or points on the board. While Houston has some capable options in the passing game I really dont see any playmakers ( Andre Johnson is OUT). I simply question how many points they will score..thinking 14 while I fully believe that Jax get into the low 20's. Drew is starting to come around again and be that home run threat( Taylor looks to be a gametime decision). They owe there win vs a bad Miami team to Kris Brown plain and simple. I mean 3 FGS of 54 ++ yards is ridiculous. Great job though! You cant expect that every week. Previous to that Houston lost @ Atl and let Harrington have a very nice day. The home game versus Indy is misleading cause Jerome Mathis who is a beast took the opening kick to the house. He didnt even last the whole game and is now on IR. The guy is great but ALWAYS injured. When Indy failed to put Hou away 31-10 late ( real score was 27-10) the Texans found some life on offense. Jax -6.5 at the moment. Garrad is flying under the radar. DeMarco Ryans at LB is a gametime decison( huge loss IMO) and Naeole is for Jax on the OL. You have to wonder about Travis Johnson after last week as well....


Miami @ Cleveland:

Sure Cle has played better to date but they havent exactly been favored in any of these games either. So a different role which is a very different approach for them and anyone looking to back them. Now you have expectations to deal with. Cleo Lemon should be better this week after getting his feet wet and John Beck has potential if called upon. The Browns have struggled versus the run and here comes the HUMMER Ronnie Brown. Jamal Lewis has been largely ineffective except versus Cincy and only lasted 1 carry last week. He is a gametime decision. Miami has struggled to stop the run and defended the pass much better. It has 3 key players on defense that could be available Darius , Holliday ( OUT) and Crowder. So if Jason Wright is the starter or a less then 100% Jamal Lewis you may struggle to attack the Dolphins defensive flaw. Tough spot playing 3rd of 4 away but this team has 3 losses on the road by 3 pts..2 on late FG'S. Anderson has thrown 8 picks in 4.5 games of football which is an issue despite his superb play IMO. I think both defenses are improving. Cle did a good job in NE. Basically you have to look at the UNDER here IMO but look for reason to play it as this is a tricky matchup cause CLE has scored at home so Miami will need to score to cover / win ......and Miami as a role fade.....Not to forget was Cleo Lemon start @ Indy in the finale last year in a meaningful game . He looked pretty good that day to me....

Minny @ Chicago :

What I see here is you have a dome team outdoors ( scary), a returning QB who is turnover prone and doesnt garner my respect yet , and a Bears team off a nice win( as a dog remember) that really took every break possible in the 2nd Half to doso( and I had CHI). The Bears have NOT righted the ship just yet. They simply applied the pressure and watched GB self destruct. You have to weigh that Minny gave the Bears hell last year and right now CHI isnt as good as last year. The Bears needed a late turnover to win at Minny and while winning 23-13 at home they had a Hester punt return for a TD , a INT returned for a TD and a safety. What I am saying is the offense didnt do very much in 2 games. While the offense did some good things vs GB it took some perfect throws from Griese and nice grabs from Olson & Clark to accomplish that. I did not like how the Bear OL played at all( Tait and Brown gametime decisions now). It will be a huge task for Chi to run on Minny. If the OL doesnt protect better Griese again will rushed and his arm strength is lacking. This shapes up alot like when KC traveled to Chi and they gave the Bears all they could handle. A missed 47 yd FG ( Longwell is a better kicker then Rayner) and fumble late inside the opposing 25 were the difference(they lost by 10). Kinda think we should have seen -4 here.....leaning towards Minny +5.5, Und 37.5 or 1st H under....this will be a defensive battle IMO...have to look more at Minnys special teams play this year. Injuries still bugging da bears here...

Phi@ NYJ

With the Eagle injuries I think its best to look at this one later in the week. However Philly has played excellent defense at GB and @ NYG. This is certainly a plus when facing a Jet team that is probably not as offensively talented as rhe two of those opponents. Statement game for both teams . If Philly is healthy I have to think they win this though....NY has done nothing but show they dont know how to win. They blew the Miami lead and hung on , couldnt beat Buffalo who is offensively challenged at the moment and couldnt hold a 10 pt lead at home to the rival Giants because Pennington for as many good plays as he makes always seems to throw a duck at the wrong time. To many Jet issues IMO....Westbrook , Smith , and Sheppard ( now doubtful) ready to play , Thomas is a gametime decision. This line is getting up there now at 3.5/4 though...hard to not like philly but this line is getting ahead of itself for a team that still hasnt righted themselves. If it stays @ -4 maybe there is some value....Truts me I know Philly is 8-0 after a BYE and so does every person making these lines....


StLouis @ Balt :

The Ravens have shown that they can still play defense. That means the Rams makeshift OL , backup running back and QB will be in for a long day IMO. Its so tough to run on Balt at home and you have to do so with a banged up OL and rookie RB. Frerotte had 3 INTs at home!!! The rams have not scored an offensive TD in 2 games on the road vs Dallas and TB two other strong defenses. Dante Hall the man with there score is OUT . Bruce , Looker and Hall are OUT @ WR. As many points as this seems its not enough....Rams wont crack 10 points....and could make a few mistakes that give short fields and easy points to Balt who have broken twenty points ++ in both at home. Unfortunately the Ravens have been weak late in the game cause they led 20-3 and 17-3 at home by half. Really like Balt by 2 TDS here...as the Rams wont stop the run opening up the offense some especially with injuries at safety and CB returning...the Rams being 3.5 at home where effectively 10.5 dogs at Zona.....!!! Balt is better then Zona....arent they..?? This probably would be closer to -13 if Balt played better on the road.....they didnt so you get a soft line..looking for 24-10....BALT -9.5 but naturally so many points leaves one cautious with Mcnair questionable but likely to play. Boller is okay except for those untimely turnovers if he replaces. Rams getting some help now at CB with there starters returning but Chavous still out at Safety. Remember that SF has a good defense and Balt OL lost a few players in Flynn and Terry who replaced by youngsters who seized the moment as SF had NO sacks. Also Heap and Wilcox two important cogs of the offense @ TE didnt play severely hurting there red zone offense IMO. Just seeing how the offense played @ TB and @ Dallas I cannot expect alot of points here from STL..20 from Balt should do the trick......

Tenny @ TB :

Looks like the battle of the inept offenses. Before you go running to back VY and the Titans just look how awful he played and that was home last week. I did expect more of a PK line which makes me cautious about TB. TB wasnt going to run the ball IMO vs Tenny anyway( Graham has been fine though). I think there will be a premium on points here...the difference is Tenny is more prone to beat themselves. 3TDs and 5 INTs for VY and a whopping 146 yds passing per game. Now Brandon Jones looks doubtful and he is one of there better WRs. The running game is in trouble as Fisher lost faith in LenDale White after the fumble and Chris Brown did ZILCH!!! While the -3 bothers me looking at the past few weeks TB has garnered a tremendous amount of respect from the linesmakers. Out of nowehere seemingly they laid -3.5 to StL , they were only +3 @ Carolina, and +10 @ Indy...remember Denver was +10 the previous week. Looking back outside of NO the Titans were lucky to beat ATL and Jax they could be 1-3 easily right now. Garcia still hasnt thrown a pick either. After last weeks performance if TB doesnt give them any short fields I am not sure Ten cracks 14 pts....hoping to see this line come down ....

Wash @ GB :

At first glance I did lean towards Wash. Think the line is a bit soft cause of week 5. Skins blowut a bad team and GB gives one away. Wash could be really banged up and shorthanded here. Randle El , Washington and Daniels all appear OUT and are noteasily replaced. GB had 12 penalities and I think 5 turnovers and still barely lost. You have to be more impressed with GB strength of schedule more then anything else WASH has done....marquee win da EAGLES? This has 17-13 or 20-14 written all over it IMO GB and the UNDER 41...

Still researching the 4 PM games and SUNDAY , MONDAY niters....