Plays :

Under 10-122 tribe
Falcons +5 or better
Parlay : Under Tribe 10 , Over 9 Colorado and Falcons +5.
1st H Under 22 ATL ( 1/2 the size)
GL


Looking back at my commentary I was happy to see I had such a nice grasp on the NFL at this point or at leas in week 6. Some things that crossed my mind yesterday that I didn't follow through on was playing the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints MLs at two to one and better. Especially once the news got out Vinny was starting the line ran up to -6. How in the world is a defense like Carolina's getting 6 points versus an offense that regularly tops out at 21 points missing a featured WR?? Facing an immobile QB. Anyway...



Where does one start with tonites game????

Lets start with portraying an accurate perception of these teams.

The Falcons :

First thing of note is the loss of 2 OL recently pushing Clabo and Foster into action. Two youngsters with limited experience ( Foster facing Usi). Last year ATL held stud WR Plaxico Burress to 4 catches for 44 yards as it was the Tike barber show. Eli that nite was 17 of 30 180 yards.

What sticks out about the Falcons is they haven't really been beaten badly yet. They dont know how to make the play or plays to win late. Sure 24-3 @ Minny looks bad but it was two pick 6's to the house and a screen pass to AP that went like 67 yards for a score. They lead at Jax 7-3 to start the 4th quarter but simply couldn't put more points on the board to pull the upset. They IMO beat the panthers pretty bad but self destructed over and over again. First they get to the Car 34 on a 17yd Dunn run on 1st down and fumble on the opening drive. Chances are they put points on the board. Next possession drive it to the Car 17 and fumble the snap on the FG attempt..amazing. Still it was 10-10 at half. They had 5 possessions for 256 yards at half on offense. So much for that horrible offense and CAR is a better then average defense. We all know how up 17-10 D'Angelo Hall lost his cool and handed Car momentum and probably the game. After stopping them on 3rd down and long Hall got a taunting penalty resulting in a 1st down. Instead of a 40yd FG attempt they would later score. After slowing the CAR offense all game and knocking out Delhomme suddenly the Falcons stop anyone and wound up losing 27-20 as 4 pt dogs. Next week at Hou the broke through vs a depleted Houston team but settled for FGS. last week @ Tenny they couldn't do anything on offense vs tenny but had many chances to tie the game late.

Harrington at home 54/73 584 yards and 4Tds with zero INTS! Impressive IMO! Still just 3 of 10 from the red zone (0-2 goal to go) and 66 of 7 on FGs. On the road they are 1 of 5 from the red zone(0-2 goal to go) and 3 of 9 on FGS. They have also been sacked 15 times compared to 3 . So the offense has been fairly solid at home. Mix in the fact NYG allow an avg starting of position of the 30 yd line when kicking to Jerious Norwood and his 30.8 kick return avg.

The defense has some stars but really has performed better on the road then at home...36 pts in 3 games...away.

This has me sort of confused about this defense. Which may have Babineux and Coleman back tonight.

On the Giants side I think we have to look at them more in the last 3 or 2.5 games. Since halftime @ Washington the Giant defense has allowed 13 points in 10 quarters. They allowed a NYJ kick return though for a score as well as seeing the JET defense pickup a fumble and score. So it faces an ATL offense that attacks more t home and dinks and dunks more on the road looking at the numbers. You would have to think the OL issues should slow the ATL offense down. Not to the Numbers of its road games but probably some inbewteen area from the home / road numbers. Thinking like 17pts...Also ATL will have FG issues. I don't think they like Andersen beyond 45 yards and that leads to going on 4th down Or Koenen who is a carp shoot. Strong leg but not sure anyone knows where the football is going.

What has the Giant offense done exactly ? They rallied nicely @ Washington for 17 second half points. They still managed just 236 yards passing on 36 attempts with a TD and 2 INTs. Home vs a depleted Eagle secondary they managed 9 points on offense and Eli was 14 of 26 135 yds(td/int). Last week vs the Jets at home 13/25 186 yds 2tds/int. Take away the shootout opener Eli is 64 /116 764(191yds per) yards. 5tds/5ints. Lawrence Tynes is a wild card himself at kicker . Obviously we cant forge the giants ground game but again ATL inconsistencies. Only Minny and car have had success on the ground(66c 214yds).

Tonite seems to come down to how strong the Giants run the ball versus ATL. They have not done much in any of the past 3 1st Halves. ATL will need to move the ball consistently and convert 3rd downs while not self destructing.

Conclusion : Need more to think about it. part of me believes this game will feature two fired up defenses and offense settling for FG attempts. On the other hand we have seen how both defenses can break down and allow big plays while NY is capable of a quick score so is the Falcon offense at home IMO. Thinking about a 1st Half UNDER at the moment. How does ATL respond after the turmoil?? I think ATL is a totally different team at home and until NY shows consistency on both sides of the ball how can you feel comfortable laying chalk on the road with them?? For 3 weeks the Giants were undervalued. They were catching 3.5 @ Washington , I cant see how WASH was perceived as better then NYG. Then catching 2 or 3 at home versus Philly when Westbrook , LJ Smith , Dawkins and Shepard missed. I mean Philly is 5 or 6 points better without a huge group of its stars. Then last week both teams at home but we should realize the JETS are bad on both sides of the ball. Still needed a huge 4th quarter to beat an inferior team. I am not sure what this line should be mainly cause of the CAR game. However I would think -3 is very fair and anything above is to high. So with that I lean heavily toward ATL +4.5 / +5 but hoping its get pushed up to 6 pts at game time....you most look at MLs in these situations especially since the only two ATS covers but not SU wins by dogs were the DD games @ Arizona last year and last week @ Buffalo.



Strong lean towards ATL ++ points and 1st H under 21.5. Good Luck!

ALCS

UNDER 10 Cleveland

This play is based on what I see as an inflated number. Due mainly to games 1 and 2 plus the recent swoon from Dice K and Westbrook's start vs NYY. Both of these pitchers are not easy to figure. Yes , Dice K struggled towards the end of the season but for the most part his road numbers were better then his Fenway stats. he did stumble in his last 3 outings away but they were to teams who had seem him alot in his division. Westbrook has been better at the Jake for years now.

First thing is neither pitcher gets run support. Dice K away 4.06 for 3.98 against and Westbrook is 3.71 for and 4.07 against. Westbrook 11-3 Under at home and Dice-K 11-7 Under away even with his last away starts sailing over. Factor that it with situational both starters getting the start where they prefer to pitch. When Westbrook started at home with a total of 10 or more the UNDER was 7-1. The lone over he pitched 1.1 innings allowing 1 run.

Although both pens pitched alot in SAT's game few if any were extended. Lewis for Cle is the guy I think may need an extra day. The others should be available without hestiation for an inning maybe more. Both SP should give you 6 innings as well .

Check the stats vs RHP in the respective situations( meaning Boston away and Cle home). Bos 264 vs Cle 279 and O/U 33-48-1 Bos and Cle 41-41-1.


Both teams admit to being drained after the last game and with a travel day on Sunday I dont think they are exactly fully rested. Dice K can relax some with a postseason star under his belt.

last but not least as I said total is to high. Dice K last trip was a 1-0 game with a 9 total. That 9 probably should have been 8.5 runs . With Westbrook it should be 9.5 runs. Westbrook vs Lester was 10.5 and went Under. The difference is probably a run bewteen Lester and Dice K again making 9.5 fair. Last year Schilling was in town vs Westbrook and Schill had been poor on the road for a few years and still we saw 8.5 runs.....my feeling is 9.5 runs was fair.