Really wasn't overly involved today . To lazy to talk about stuff I wasnt overly excited about. Last game of the evening ....
Over 79 or 80 Hawaii
having watched how awful this NMST defense looked @ Auburn and @ Boise State you have to wonder if Hawaii can just name its point total. There lowest output was 52 vs Utah State at home and that is a tougher defense and they didnt score in the fourth quarter. I would expect 56 points here from the home team and 70 wouldnt suprise me. Now Hawaii's defense has shown some holes of late. They have given up points to very average offenses. One thing NMST can do with Mumme is find ways to score. Look at the 1st H of Auburn.
Chase Holbrook when healthy can play . Thats why Boise State is such a bad indicator. Look more @ Auburn a solid SEC defense and new mexico...would expect 24 + points here minimum from the road team....really expect 30 ++......
GL working on the NFL!
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Simply amazed at how well I amdoing in the NHL. I proceed with alot of caution in this sport and its actually hurting me. I had said leaning heavily towards COL and he Under 6 both at ++ money and the Avs win 3-2. However I really cant complain. Lucked out that after the 1st Q the Boise State game slowed down and cashed the 1st H under. The NHL the AWAY teams @ +160 cashed cause every dog except SJ hit. The Wash game had 3 1st Q goals but stayed under @ 3-2 and a late rush gave me a PUSH @ FLA 4-2. Just perfect as could be...
The only problem was I went out last nite and wasnt really able to get into looking at the early CFB games. I had a bunch I had looked at playing especially WVU . Probably would have played Vandy , Cent Mich , Nwestern , Miss St , Lville , Missouri , Ark 1st H ...
So I am gonna get cracking on what starts at 3 PM...damn I loved WVU...alot of my friends are RU alum and they didnt like what I had to say about what was gonna happen today....Oh well no one to blame but me!
The only problem was I went out last nite and wasnt really able to get into looking at the early CFB games. I had a bunch I had looked at playing especially WVU . Probably would have played Vandy , Cent Mich , Nwestern , Miss St , Lville , Missouri , Ark 1st H ...
So I am gonna get cracking on what starts at 3 PM...damn I loved WVU...alot of my friends are RU alum and they didnt like what I had to say about what was gonna happen today....Oh well no one to blame but me!
Friday, October 26, 2007
Happened to notice some heavy action on Fresno State and especially the OVER. Right now I am just sitting this game out. Lean the same way but prefer the less line movement in games I get involved in.
My decision was just play UND 32 1st Half ....GL
Really interested in COL Und ^ +105 as well in the NHL. More so then they Col side! BOL See ya in the AM!
My decision was just play UND 32 1st Half ....GL
Really interested in COL Und ^ +105 as well in the NHL. More so then they Col side! BOL See ya in the AM!
NHL tonite :
Over Buffalo / Fla 6
Under Washington / Vancouver 5.5 -125
Away Goals +160
The Away goals comes from a belief that SJ , Col and Montreal all have legit chances to win here and the otherganes I suspect to be 1 goal games either way....might add Col tonite...
I will say tonite is the LEAST comfortable I have felt with any NHL plays I have made to date
Over Buffalo / Fla 6
Under Washington / Vancouver 5.5 -125
Away Goals +160
The Away goals comes from a belief that SJ , Col and Montreal all have legit chances to win here and the otherganes I suspect to be 1 goal games either way....might add Col tonite...
I will say tonite is the LEAST comfortable I have felt with any NHL plays I have made to date
Crazy Night in College last nite. The way I see it I had VaTech / BC as a coin flip. I thought at home the would be able to pull it out. I said I didnt expect BC to score 20 points and they couldnt move the ball at all UNTIL the good ole prevent defense came into play. You see it time and time again. You thoroughly outplay ateam but look up on the scoreboard and see a tight affair. VaTech didnt put the bail in the coffin plain and simple. Ore was able to run like I thought. In the end VaTech didnt do enough...I expected 17 points from them and they didnt get there. I think Beamer took to much for granted. It happens the right play won and that was BC even with me on VaTech. The late game much of the same FG kicker misses his one in like 18 attempts and its a chip shot. Again thought the line was tight but figured AF would fall apart again in teh 4th quarter and lose. They did but NM didnt capitialize. Dont know why I didnt play the over. AF dosnt have a good defense and its tough to hold them to less then 20 points...the baseball total was great and really the game was as expected. The sick part continues to be the NHL. I seriously dont know a damn thing about the NHL but have a great pulse on it somehow. Leaned towards Under Grand Salami , Over Flyers and Edm +125 and they all freaking won!! I did finally cash with the UNDER @ LA. Its just insane to be able to pick winners in this sport. Hit a 4tm all NHL parlay and two more plays...so in a way I am 6-0 to date....worse is I am more like 18-2 if counted my leans! Yikes!!
No baseball , the usual full slate of CFB and NFL this weekend. Which I havent really looked at to indepth. Oh we have WAC football tonight!!
Boise State @ Fresno State :
Boise State is w/o Ian Johnson there stud RB but have a capable replacement. Here's my problem though its seems his absence is overlooked because of that. Since the NMST game the offense has picked up. However I would count NMST and Nevada especially on the road as two of the worst defenses in the country. LaTech isnt exactly known for defense either. So not overly impressed with this offensive really cause the better defenses havent seen gaudy numbers. You can say well it was early in the season and maybe thats part of it. I dont really think so...
On the other hand Boise State Defense which had been playing well showed some holes the past two weeks. Maybe some could be blamed on the youngster from Nevada being a dual threat and not having much game film on him. Last week it was really just a big play or two.
Nevada offensively is mostly about the running game with Brandsetter trying to move the chains and not turn it over. Think 6TDs and 3 Ints in 7 games. There defense is sound despite some inconsistencies. They rely on sound defense though and try to take advantage of decent field position to get big plays from the youngster Matthews.
So really what I am getting at is Fresno is lookingto play sound defense , control the clock and run the ball. The last couple meetings @ Fresno bewteen the two have been fairly low scoring. To me this has 27-24 type game written all over it. Now granted Fresno is coming of an odd shutout of SJST in which they allowed nearly 400 yards of offense. Even last season they went UNDER in 4 of 6 away with the only high scoring games being at Idaho and you guessed it NMST!!
So with Ian Johnson out I am leaning towards the home dog cause it means so much to this program to knock off a giant and they almost won @ A&M earlier. The other play I am on is UNDER 63 or 1st H under.....college I just hate to take full game UNDERS...For some reason I would compare Fresno State to Wyoming they just seem like similiar teams....
Be Back shortly maybe some NHL suggestions......GL
No baseball , the usual full slate of CFB and NFL this weekend. Which I havent really looked at to indepth. Oh we have WAC football tonight!!
Boise State @ Fresno State :
Boise State is w/o Ian Johnson there stud RB but have a capable replacement. Here's my problem though its seems his absence is overlooked because of that. Since the NMST game the offense has picked up. However I would count NMST and Nevada especially on the road as two of the worst defenses in the country. LaTech isnt exactly known for defense either. So not overly impressed with this offensive really cause the better defenses havent seen gaudy numbers. You can say well it was early in the season and maybe thats part of it. I dont really think so...
On the other hand Boise State Defense which had been playing well showed some holes the past two weeks. Maybe some could be blamed on the youngster from Nevada being a dual threat and not having much game film on him. Last week it was really just a big play or two.
Nevada offensively is mostly about the running game with Brandsetter trying to move the chains and not turn it over. Think 6TDs and 3 Ints in 7 games. There defense is sound despite some inconsistencies. They rely on sound defense though and try to take advantage of decent field position to get big plays from the youngster Matthews.
So really what I am getting at is Fresno is lookingto play sound defense , control the clock and run the ball. The last couple meetings @ Fresno bewteen the two have been fairly low scoring. To me this has 27-24 type game written all over it. Now granted Fresno is coming of an odd shutout of SJST in which they allowed nearly 400 yards of offense. Even last season they went UNDER in 4 of 6 away with the only high scoring games being at Idaho and you guessed it NMST!!
So with Ian Johnson out I am leaning towards the home dog cause it means so much to this program to knock off a giant and they almost won @ A&M earlier. The other play I am on is UNDER 63 or 1st H under.....college I just hate to take full game UNDERS...For some reason I would compare Fresno State to Wyoming they just seem like similiar teams....
Be Back shortly maybe some NHL suggestions......GL
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Plays tonite :
CFB
VaTech -2.5 (buy 1/2)
New Mexico -6 (buy 1/2)
Under 21 1st H VaTech (think we could see VaTech 7-3 @ Half)
Havent talked about NM but like them the most of the two. Just dont like AF defense on the road. There is a reason why they are a DOG in almost game. While they have been overing situational things couldnt have ben better prior to this matchup...I think NM wins 31-17 or better....
Leaning Over 47 NM
NHL :
No plays of yet. I was leaning towards the Grand Salami UNDER. I decided to wait and see how the early games went with the thought in mind of possibly gettinvolved with the 10 and 10:30 starts..Did lean towards Over 6 with Philly but the vig sucked..Like EDM +125 as well
Played Under 5.5 Kings / Dallas Even
MLB:
Under 10 even Col
Have to pass I think on the COL series cause they dropped it +325..MFers!! Now its almost better to just play the Rocks tonite..
Thinking about Col for the series with a small play. I see +370 now it probably is better elsewhere. For tonite prefer the UNDER 10 if anything. As I said COL hit the ball well at times last nite but in general they just are not swinging it enough where I see 5 + runs. Schilling once of my fav SP is definetly a proven big game SP even with lesser stuff. Just look at the stretch run in Sept @ Fenway. Very solid work regardless of W/L . Last nite there was a ton of value in BOS. However being small time if your not laying at least 200 (risking 450 or so) its not worth it. I cant lay -200 on Boston here. People are writing Col off when they walked into a buzzsaw. They long layoffs scare me for Col SP....thats what is keeping me off for the moment
CFB
VaTech -2.5 (buy 1/2)
New Mexico -6 (buy 1/2)
Under 21 1st H VaTech (think we could see VaTech 7-3 @ Half)
Havent talked about NM but like them the most of the two. Just dont like AF defense on the road. There is a reason why they are a DOG in almost game. While they have been overing situational things couldnt have ben better prior to this matchup...I think NM wins 31-17 or better....
Leaning Over 47 NM
NHL :
No plays of yet. I was leaning towards the Grand Salami UNDER. I decided to wait and see how the early games went with the thought in mind of possibly gettinvolved with the 10 and 10:30 starts..Did lean towards Over 6 with Philly but the vig sucked..Like EDM +125 as well
Played Under 5.5 Kings / Dallas Even
MLB:
Under 10 even Col
Have to pass I think on the COL series cause they dropped it +325..MFers!! Now its almost better to just play the Rocks tonite..
Thinking about Col for the series with a small play. I see +370 now it probably is better elsewhere. For tonite prefer the UNDER 10 if anything. As I said COL hit the ball well at times last nite but in general they just are not swinging it enough where I see 5 + runs. Schilling once of my fav SP is definetly a proven big game SP even with lesser stuff. Just look at the stretch run in Sept @ Fenway. Very solid work regardless of W/L . Last nite there was a ton of value in BOS. However being small time if your not laying at least 200 (risking 450 or so) its not worth it. I cant lay -200 on Boston here. People are writing Col off when they walked into a buzzsaw. They long layoffs scare me for Col SP....thats what is keeping me off for the moment
CFB :
One thing is for sure. Like most of the rest of the world I don't trust the VaTech offense. Glennon looked great in relief but it was Duke's defense .
Looking @ BC work this season I really cant say I am impressed. They opened with the stronger part of there schedule facing WF , NCST and @ GT. GT has been disappointment and the way I see things is Clemson is a stronger team . By that I mean Clemson would be favored on a neutral field . Hell they were favored @ GT already!! I say that cause they are the toughest opponent to date. Okay they were only -6 at home to Wake and -13.5 to NCST. That speaks volumes. You can see Wake being huge home dogs to Nebraska and FSU this season. Granted they played well in both of those games and those lines were inflated. Still it speaks volumes. To me the only team they blew out was Bowling Green and that game showed misleading yardage by the opposing QB but there was also strong sentiment that BG would cover. Otherwise teams have passed on them and the QBs at NCST , WF , even ND once Claussen was benched arent any better then Glennon and Co. They are way out of there league ranked at #2. Your the #2 team in the nation and in your 1st game of the season you play Wake Forest at home laying a whole SIX points?? Matt Ryan is a great QB but this is not a great team IMO. Ryan wasnt all that impressive at home vs VT last year , he wasnt all that impressive vs NCST , and the offense has scored 24 and 27 in two road games. They will have a hard time getting 20 points on offense here IMO. Right now I see value on the UNDER at better then 42 pts cause really I dont see worse then say 24-17 or 23-17 game. I just think that VaTech has stepped it up a notch past 2 games and looks like it has improved. I cant take much from the BC road games cause they faced troubled offenses. VaTech isnt much different with the exception of there defense. That defense though is stellar. GT gave Choice 15 carries and in both the Eagles lead at half by 2 scores. So Ore who did okay vs them last year should fight for some yards here.
Also dont get me wrong VaTech hasnt played well either or versus great opponents. However could the whole VaTech shooting have started them off on the wrong foot?? Thats one helluva a situation to deal with at 20 years old. They may have felt pressure to succeed for the school. You just dont know. I think its fair to say VT becomes valueable as dogs and real small favs cause they can win games on defense alone even versus solid teams. If Glennon plays well and moves the ball they will win fairly easily IMO. Not blowout but comfy 10 pt margin. Its a big IF with no answer and bad weather on the horizon.
{Leans Under 43 buying 1/2pt and VaTech -2.5 buying half.)GL
One thing is for sure. Like most of the rest of the world I don't trust the VaTech offense. Glennon looked great in relief but it was Duke's defense .
Looking @ BC work this season I really cant say I am impressed. They opened with the stronger part of there schedule facing WF , NCST and @ GT. GT has been disappointment and the way I see things is Clemson is a stronger team . By that I mean Clemson would be favored on a neutral field . Hell they were favored @ GT already!! I say that cause they are the toughest opponent to date. Okay they were only -6 at home to Wake and -13.5 to NCST. That speaks volumes. You can see Wake being huge home dogs to Nebraska and FSU this season. Granted they played well in both of those games and those lines were inflated. Still it speaks volumes. To me the only team they blew out was Bowling Green and that game showed misleading yardage by the opposing QB but there was also strong sentiment that BG would cover. Otherwise teams have passed on them and the QBs at NCST , WF , even ND once Claussen was benched arent any better then Glennon and Co. They are way out of there league ranked at #2. Your the #2 team in the nation and in your 1st game of the season you play Wake Forest at home laying a whole SIX points?? Matt Ryan is a great QB but this is not a great team IMO. Ryan wasnt all that impressive at home vs VT last year , he wasnt all that impressive vs NCST , and the offense has scored 24 and 27 in two road games. They will have a hard time getting 20 points on offense here IMO. Right now I see value on the UNDER at better then 42 pts cause really I dont see worse then say 24-17 or 23-17 game. I just think that VaTech has stepped it up a notch past 2 games and looks like it has improved. I cant take much from the BC road games cause they faced troubled offenses. VaTech isnt much different with the exception of there defense. That defense though is stellar. GT gave Choice 15 carries and in both the Eagles lead at half by 2 scores. So Ore who did okay vs them last year should fight for some yards here.
Also dont get me wrong VaTech hasnt played well either or versus great opponents. However could the whole VaTech shooting have started them off on the wrong foot?? Thats one helluva a situation to deal with at 20 years old. They may have felt pressure to succeed for the school. You just dont know. I think its fair to say VT becomes valueable as dogs and real small favs cause they can win games on defense alone even versus solid teams. If Glennon plays well and moves the ball they will win fairly easily IMO. Not blowout but comfy 10 pt margin. Its a big IF with no answer and bad weather on the horizon.
{Leans Under 43 buying 1/2pt and VaTech -2.5 buying half.)GL
MLB
We saw once again how a power pitcher can just shut down a team in the postseason. After 7 or 8 starts I think its time to put Beckett up there as one of the postseason greats. Again he was excellent last night even with less then stellar location( good stuff though). Don't be fooled by the rust arguement for COL. I didn't watch every pitch but I saw COL tattoo some balls off him. They peppered the Monster a few times , he was bailed out in the 6th inning with a nice play by Pedroia to start a DP which was followed by a liner up the middle. He was excellent but I wouldnt classify as unhittable. Boston's hitting and CoL lack of pitching just made it to tough to scratch and claw. Francis starts off missing spots then Morales and Spier just blow up the joint. The rest of the Col pen though came in late and did there job.
So where does that leave Colorado ?? One thing I would like to say is simply remember 1996 ?? The Braves beat up on my Yankees and we made a great comeback. Now obviously there are differences in the situations. However one thing I see in COL is the team aspect that NY had. Everybody doing something to make them a good unit. Not to mention alot of no name pitchers and retread veterans in the pen.
If you look at the fact Jimenez could give Bos some trouble being he is power RH. Meaning Pedoia , Youk , Manny , Lowell there core could struggle. Schilling is hit or miss . He didnt finish that strong , he ranted about needing to execute pitches at a 95% clip due to his diminishing stuff and I always caution against these 40 year olds in the cold weather.
Game 3 with DiceK and Lester are very winnable for Col cause @ Coors I certainly think they can outslug Boston. DiceK needs to get a better warmup routine as he just goes all out in warmups and after such a long season he doesnt need to drain his arm or legs further. Lester is a wildcard IMO. Not that Fogg or Cook is much better its more a matter that you will get the Rocks as home dogs.
So what I am saying caution giving up on COL. Even down 2-0 they have a chance to make this a series.
Waiting to see how the weather shapes up before I think about Game #2
We saw once again how a power pitcher can just shut down a team in the postseason. After 7 or 8 starts I think its time to put Beckett up there as one of the postseason greats. Again he was excellent last night even with less then stellar location( good stuff though). Don't be fooled by the rust arguement for COL. I didn't watch every pitch but I saw COL tattoo some balls off him. They peppered the Monster a few times , he was bailed out in the 6th inning with a nice play by Pedroia to start a DP which was followed by a liner up the middle. He was excellent but I wouldnt classify as unhittable. Boston's hitting and CoL lack of pitching just made it to tough to scratch and claw. Francis starts off missing spots then Morales and Spier just blow up the joint. The rest of the Col pen though came in late and did there job.
So where does that leave Colorado ?? One thing I would like to say is simply remember 1996 ?? The Braves beat up on my Yankees and we made a great comeback. Now obviously there are differences in the situations. However one thing I see in COL is the team aspect that NY had. Everybody doing something to make them a good unit. Not to mention alot of no name pitchers and retread veterans in the pen.
If you look at the fact Jimenez could give Bos some trouble being he is power RH. Meaning Pedoia , Youk , Manny , Lowell there core could struggle. Schilling is hit or miss . He didnt finish that strong , he ranted about needing to execute pitches at a 95% clip due to his diminishing stuff and I always caution against these 40 year olds in the cold weather.
Game 3 with DiceK and Lester are very winnable for Col cause @ Coors I certainly think they can outslug Boston. DiceK needs to get a better warmup routine as he just goes all out in warmups and after such a long season he doesnt need to drain his arm or legs further. Lester is a wildcard IMO. Not that Fogg or Cook is much better its more a matter that you will get the Rocks as home dogs.
So what I am saying caution giving up on COL. Even down 2-0 they have a chance to make this a series.
Waiting to see how the weather shapes up before I think about Game #2
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Well all I ahd a chance to play was the UNDER 3.5 runs for Colorado. Thought I would be home to see what Boston was before 1st pitch but wasnt. Anyway had a gut feeling and played it. Get this 1st Hr of the World Series Dustin Pedroia +1300 .
Well it happened. It was just a few bucks and a shot in the dark play but it hit at 13 to 1 !!!
Funny last nite after kicking myself for the horrible decision making process on Monday with Jax vs Indy I did something unlike me. I decided to look over the NHL card. Now I have dabbled in the NHL at times but I honestly couldnt tell you much if anything about the current NHL. When I did follow the NHL we are talking like 1994 -1996 seasons!! Okay. The point is I basically had every game pegged right. Somehow not sure how I did it. Anyway took a shot with a 4 team NHL parlay and hit it !! Over Anaheim , Over Toronto, Over Chicago and the Avalanche! This can be dangerous as I still know nothing about the NHL and find myself wanting to look at the matchups.
World Series Game 1 :
There are some factors to think about :
1- Rockies win 21 of 22 . My problem is they were a bunch of teams that didnt have much firepower. Dodgers 7-0 , SD 4-0 , Zona 6-1 and Philly 3-0. Okay Philly could hit but were thet flat after there tremendous comeback? See I think COL got a boost going into taht series from the play-in extra inning win vs SD. They had shitloads of momentum running into that series.
2-Which leads me to Boston momentum. Yeah its only 3 wins. It was THREE wins with there backs up against the wall done in IMPRESSIVE fashion. They outscored 30-5 and ebat the TRIBE's top 3 SP . Carmona and Sabathia where contenders for the Cy Young as well. So who has the momentum??
3- Jeff Francis and his 13 day layoff (10/11 last start) ? He was something like 8 days in his first NLCS start. So I would have to think he will be okay here. Colorado has had a good pen and all you ask for is 6 solid innings. Now I know we cant live in the world of make believe. However Francis was actually exceptional on the road this season. His 4.01 ERA is telling the wrong story. He made 18 starts away of which 14 were very solid. He had 4 awful outings away. The difference in the 14 good starts was a 2.09 ERA (6.2 innings in those starts).
4- Josh Beckett . Not many questions surrounding him. The classic power pitcher rising to the situation in the POSTSEASON. 13 earned runs in 62.2 postseason innings with 13bbs and 73 Ks.....He had 1 bad start this year vs Col all the other past ones were very solid.
5- The cool weather tends to mean less carry for the ball.
My view is COL is not hitting all that well this postseason. Relying on what got them here pitching and defense. Boston I dont think is hitting as well as the recent numbers bare out either. They got 8 bullshit runs off a worned down pen last game , they beat up Carmona who appears to have nothing left in the gas tank and they got 5 runs off the pen in Becketts last start.
How does COL break 3 runs here ??? How does Boston break 5 runs??? in 10 games Boston has allowed more then 3 runs on 3 occassions: the xtra inning slugfest (13) , the 7 run one inning outburst and the 4 runs off DiceK. During the Col 22 gm streak 3 times they allowed 4 , 5runs twice and more then that 3 times.
I think COL does have a legit shot in the series. There is value there for sure. However I think Game 1 everything is in place for BOS to succeed. I wont play the series yet. I think I may wait for tonite hope COL loses and then take Col in the SERIES. I always feel that when its seen as to high a price then the word value is taken out of the arguement. Beckett was -200 at home during the reg season vs Francis so why would it be any different now? The line is where it should be. There is NO VALUE in this line as far as it being priced wrong. Of course if you follow the logic Col is 21-1 last 22 then there is value but that is a different arguement.
While I dont see Boston ML as something worth playing. I do think Bos will be successful and with that they should hold COL to UNDER 3.5 runs. {lean towards Und 8.5 and Bos ML)
Good Luck....played Fla Panthers in NHL
Well it happened. It was just a few bucks and a shot in the dark play but it hit at 13 to 1 !!!
Funny last nite after kicking myself for the horrible decision making process on Monday with Jax vs Indy I did something unlike me. I decided to look over the NHL card. Now I have dabbled in the NHL at times but I honestly couldnt tell you much if anything about the current NHL. When I did follow the NHL we are talking like 1994 -1996 seasons!! Okay. The point is I basically had every game pegged right. Somehow not sure how I did it. Anyway took a shot with a 4 team NHL parlay and hit it !! Over Anaheim , Over Toronto, Over Chicago and the Avalanche! This can be dangerous as I still know nothing about the NHL and find myself wanting to look at the matchups.
World Series Game 1 :
There are some factors to think about :
1- Rockies win 21 of 22 . My problem is they were a bunch of teams that didnt have much firepower. Dodgers 7-0 , SD 4-0 , Zona 6-1 and Philly 3-0. Okay Philly could hit but were thet flat after there tremendous comeback? See I think COL got a boost going into taht series from the play-in extra inning win vs SD. They had shitloads of momentum running into that series.
2-Which leads me to Boston momentum. Yeah its only 3 wins. It was THREE wins with there backs up against the wall done in IMPRESSIVE fashion. They outscored 30-5 and ebat the TRIBE's top 3 SP . Carmona and Sabathia where contenders for the Cy Young as well. So who has the momentum??
3- Jeff Francis and his 13 day layoff (10/11 last start) ? He was something like 8 days in his first NLCS start. So I would have to think he will be okay here. Colorado has had a good pen and all you ask for is 6 solid innings. Now I know we cant live in the world of make believe. However Francis was actually exceptional on the road this season. His 4.01 ERA is telling the wrong story. He made 18 starts away of which 14 were very solid. He had 4 awful outings away. The difference in the 14 good starts was a 2.09 ERA (6.2 innings in those starts).
4- Josh Beckett . Not many questions surrounding him. The classic power pitcher rising to the situation in the POSTSEASON. 13 earned runs in 62.2 postseason innings with 13bbs and 73 Ks.....He had 1 bad start this year vs Col all the other past ones were very solid.
5- The cool weather tends to mean less carry for the ball.
My view is COL is not hitting all that well this postseason. Relying on what got them here pitching and defense. Boston I dont think is hitting as well as the recent numbers bare out either. They got 8 bullshit runs off a worned down pen last game , they beat up Carmona who appears to have nothing left in the gas tank and they got 5 runs off the pen in Becketts last start.
How does COL break 3 runs here ??? How does Boston break 5 runs??? in 10 games Boston has allowed more then 3 runs on 3 occassions: the xtra inning slugfest (13) , the 7 run one inning outburst and the 4 runs off DiceK. During the Col 22 gm streak 3 times they allowed 4 , 5runs twice and more then that 3 times.
I think COL does have a legit shot in the series. There is value there for sure. However I think Game 1 everything is in place for BOS to succeed. I wont play the series yet. I think I may wait for tonite hope COL loses and then take Col in the SERIES. I always feel that when its seen as to high a price then the word value is taken out of the arguement. Beckett was -200 at home during the reg season vs Francis so why would it be any different now? The line is where it should be. There is NO VALUE in this line as far as it being priced wrong. Of course if you follow the logic Col is 21-1 last 22 then there is value but that is a different arguement.
While I dont see Boston ML as something worth playing. I do think Bos will be successful and with that they should hold COL to UNDER 3.5 runs. {lean towards Und 8.5 and Bos ML)
Good Luck....played Fla Panthers in NHL
Monday, October 22, 2007
Final Thoughts :
If you are playing this game do your homework. The trend has long been if you like DOG play the ML if its less then a TD spread. If you like the fav simply lay the points dont mess with some inflated ML. This game in my opinion will not end with Indy winning by 1,2,or 3 points. Either Jax wins SU likely by 3 points or Colts win by 6 or better. Get some balls and lay the points and take the DOG ML...if you worked it right you could have -3-110 and +150 or better...
So again we have a game that people seem to miss the point. They say the spread is low for Indy. Well that may be the case but in my opinion its still the wrong spread. Truly I would have said it should be Indy -1 or PK which is more likely then a team laying -1 pt. This season we knew Indy had a large turnover of players on defense. Expectations were sort of low in a sense. We had Colts v Saints the Bowl that never was. Colts only 5 point favs. They crush what was supposed to be a good team but we have learned the Saints are not the same team. For that win they get overinflated @ Tenny. Win but no cover despite really outplaying Tenny. So they lay a similiar big number to Houston same outcome. Come back home people see -10 vs Den and TB after unspectular road games. Wow , thats o many points they think. Only problem DEN and TB arent what we thought they are. They are just like NO much worse.So in essence Indy has been cheap at home and due to there success there . They became FAT favs on the road. To pricey for there own good. Now Jax started with what I feel was high expectations despite the shaky QB situation to start. outplay the Titans but manage to lose , look flat vs ATL but manage to win. Then they go play @ Den and @ KC and really beat those teams up except the final scores dont show it cause they left way to many points on the field bewteen settling for FGs , missing FGs , fumbles and Turnover on downs. The Jags are a grinding offense which is the way to go versus a cover two but also have Home Run ability in Maurice Jones Drew . Who has struck with 50 + yard TD runs in consecutive weeks.
Look at the jags at home versus Houston. Opening drive goes 58 yds missed FG , then 28 yd drive fumble at midfield , then 35yd drive and fumble. After that 71 yd TD drive , FG drive , 81yd TD drive , 80yd TD drive , 73yd TD drive. They scored on every possession after the 1st quarter when they should have scored as well. At KC opening drive 77 yds but a short FG , after a TD drive they take it to the KC 30 and you guess miss a FG. Then the 3rd quarter KC buckled down and 3 possessions all punts. They start the 4th quarter with a TD drive , then punt with good field position and another turnover on downs at the KC 29. So maybe 9-13 points more should have been scored. Look at Den . They punt , then 80 yd TD drive, another TD drive , FG drive , FG drive , then fumble on there own 45 yd line , backed up at there own 3 they punt. Then a 10 play 79 yd drive to the Den 1 results in a fumble , next possession start at Den 4 go 3 yards for a FG a penalty took them off the 1yd line .
Offense @ Den : 2 TD drives , 3 FG drives , 2 punts , 2 fumbles
Offense @ KC : FG , TD , FG miss , 3 punts , TD , punt , turnover on downs
Offense vs Hou : FG miss , fumble , fumble , TD , FG , TD , TD, TD
This offense is playing extremely well except it has shot itself in the fooot on more then a few occasions. Conversely I think the Jags defense has been real soft vs the pass. Look at Houston game. Opening drive 78 yds settle for 3 points , next drive 67 yds and a fumble at the 1 !!!! So 145 yards on 17 plays they allowed when it was a game. Then a punt , followed by 2 FG drives , then fumble @ Jax 23 , INT @ Jax 32 and then 89 yd TD drive. This was only a 16-9 game late 3rd quarter and HOU had no probloem moving the ball vs Jax. Schaub 19/31 259 yds with no Andre Johnson and not much of a running game. KC didnt do much but its obvious the Cheifs are all about the run to open up the pass. LJ was shut down at home ! They played keep away @ Den only 42 play srun by DEN but still a solid 265 yards. Cutler 16 of 23 for 222 basically in 3 quarters as they didnt do much last 13 minutes.
So Jags havent even been tested by a good pass offense and they have showed signs of having trouble. Now Indy did struggle some versus Jax. However the Colts offense has started slow past few seasons and the game at RCA was early. The second game was a cluster fuck. They got down big forced to pass easier to defend if you just drop back in coverage still he had 313 yds on 25/50. Now we have new safeties.
I think we see alot of points here if Jags dont self destruct on drives. The Broncos ran on Sanders and the Colts @ RCA. Thats a good indicator. Blwoing out NO early and a pathetic TB run game skew the numbers. Both teams facing there toughest opponents. Who tested the Colts Defense..?? Tenny..come on now ...Houston had no AJ and lost Ahman Green early , TB...
Plays :
Over 44.5 -120
Jags +3.5
Jags ML
If you are playing this game do your homework. The trend has long been if you like DOG play the ML if its less then a TD spread. If you like the fav simply lay the points dont mess with some inflated ML. This game in my opinion will not end with Indy winning by 1,2,or 3 points. Either Jax wins SU likely by 3 points or Colts win by 6 or better. Get some balls and lay the points and take the DOG ML...if you worked it right you could have -3-110 and +150 or better...
So again we have a game that people seem to miss the point. They say the spread is low for Indy. Well that may be the case but in my opinion its still the wrong spread. Truly I would have said it should be Indy -1 or PK which is more likely then a team laying -1 pt. This season we knew Indy had a large turnover of players on defense. Expectations were sort of low in a sense. We had Colts v Saints the Bowl that never was. Colts only 5 point favs. They crush what was supposed to be a good team but we have learned the Saints are not the same team. For that win they get overinflated @ Tenny. Win but no cover despite really outplaying Tenny. So they lay a similiar big number to Houston same outcome. Come back home people see -10 vs Den and TB after unspectular road games. Wow , thats o many points they think. Only problem DEN and TB arent what we thought they are. They are just like NO much worse.So in essence Indy has been cheap at home and due to there success there . They became FAT favs on the road. To pricey for there own good. Now Jax started with what I feel was high expectations despite the shaky QB situation to start. outplay the Titans but manage to lose , look flat vs ATL but manage to win. Then they go play @ Den and @ KC and really beat those teams up except the final scores dont show it cause they left way to many points on the field bewteen settling for FGs , missing FGs , fumbles and Turnover on downs. The Jags are a grinding offense which is the way to go versus a cover two but also have Home Run ability in Maurice Jones Drew . Who has struck with 50 + yard TD runs in consecutive weeks.
Look at the jags at home versus Houston. Opening drive goes 58 yds missed FG , then 28 yd drive fumble at midfield , then 35yd drive and fumble. After that 71 yd TD drive , FG drive , 81yd TD drive , 80yd TD drive , 73yd TD drive. They scored on every possession after the 1st quarter when they should have scored as well. At KC opening drive 77 yds but a short FG , after a TD drive they take it to the KC 30 and you guess miss a FG. Then the 3rd quarter KC buckled down and 3 possessions all punts. They start the 4th quarter with a TD drive , then punt with good field position and another turnover on downs at the KC 29. So maybe 9-13 points more should have been scored. Look at Den . They punt , then 80 yd TD drive, another TD drive , FG drive , FG drive , then fumble on there own 45 yd line , backed up at there own 3 they punt. Then a 10 play 79 yd drive to the Den 1 results in a fumble , next possession start at Den 4 go 3 yards for a FG a penalty took them off the 1yd line .
Offense @ Den : 2 TD drives , 3 FG drives , 2 punts , 2 fumbles
Offense @ KC : FG , TD , FG miss , 3 punts , TD , punt , turnover on downs
Offense vs Hou : FG miss , fumble , fumble , TD , FG , TD , TD, TD
This offense is playing extremely well except it has shot itself in the fooot on more then a few occasions. Conversely I think the Jags defense has been real soft vs the pass. Look at Houston game. Opening drive 78 yds settle for 3 points , next drive 67 yds and a fumble at the 1 !!!! So 145 yards on 17 plays they allowed when it was a game. Then a punt , followed by 2 FG drives , then fumble @ Jax 23 , INT @ Jax 32 and then 89 yd TD drive. This was only a 16-9 game late 3rd quarter and HOU had no probloem moving the ball vs Jax. Schaub 19/31 259 yds with no Andre Johnson and not much of a running game. KC didnt do much but its obvious the Cheifs are all about the run to open up the pass. LJ was shut down at home ! They played keep away @ Den only 42 play srun by DEN but still a solid 265 yards. Cutler 16 of 23 for 222 basically in 3 quarters as they didnt do much last 13 minutes.
So Jags havent even been tested by a good pass offense and they have showed signs of having trouble. Now Indy did struggle some versus Jax. However the Colts offense has started slow past few seasons and the game at RCA was early. The second game was a cluster fuck. They got down big forced to pass easier to defend if you just drop back in coverage still he had 313 yds on 25/50. Now we have new safeties.
I think we see alot of points here if Jags dont self destruct on drives. The Broncos ran on Sanders and the Colts @ RCA. Thats a good indicator. Blwoing out NO early and a pathetic TB run game skew the numbers. Both teams facing there toughest opponents. Who tested the Colts Defense..?? Tenny..come on now ...Houston had no AJ and lost Ahman Green early , TB...
Plays :
Over 44.5 -120
Jags +3.5
Jags ML
Monday Night Football
I have to say I love to read. Not sure how many read me . Anyway I do spend some time reading sports message boards and have to say I get a great laugh. So many people wagering on sports have no clue. They don't ever understand what goes into putting out a point spread. I don't mean to come off as arrogant but why do people constantly talk about things they don't know about like they re authorities?? Like Pittsburgh is a trap last nite. How is Pitt a trap ? How many times has Denver been a home dog ? Sure they looked( key phrase..looked as in perceived vs reality) like crap but is that a true indication of there team? Thats why the term VALUE in Sports wagering is misunderstood. Value isnt about getting certain odds better then the actually percentage chance of something winning. Its about situational picking spots where you can be ahead of the curve as in sports linesmakers adjusting lines. Remember I traded the real Yield Curve. You want to buy when things are oversold( sell when overbought) but you dont fight the market (EVER!!!). Meaning things work in extremes. Something may look cheap but whats to keep it from getting cheaper??( attention house buyers) How do you know?? Market sentiment . Sometimes sentiment changes to quickly like a team playing one good game or one bad game and everything is alright or fucked again. Shit happens to everyone. A bad game , a bad day at the plate , on the mound , etc...the key is making an educated guess if it was just that or an indicator of what is to come. There are no tricks or traps. Just people who think they are smarter then they really are. We all should be learning new things everyday !! This isn't really a specific reference to that game but a general comment. Remember why I liked Utah State so much on Saturday?? Value in sports betting has no specific numerical values. Its about exploiting a situation when the market has adjusted incorrectly or not quick enough. Think in baseball terms . You see a team like say the Pirates reel of a nice 7 game win streak. During that streak they may always be dogs. Actually just look at what Colorado has done. Why cause the market still sees the Rockies fighting to get to the playoffs barely hovering above 500 , the one who suffered the long losing streak, etc. Not the team on the field today which has played a certain way for 30 games. This creates value. Boston -170 last nite value. Not cause of price but intangibles. Enough with this . Feel free to email me or comment on the subject. Pretty soon they will be call me A.D( All Day) for my rants.
However if you actually follow the NFL the Steelers played some shit teams and its only true road contest was @ Arizona where they lost and struggled on offense. I thought Denver was supposed to be a good team this season according to the preseason chatter. Oh wait Denver got smoked at home by SD. Yes , the Broncos had sucked versus the run and underperformed all season. How many times were they dogs though? Home dogs ? Is Pitt the better team ? Clearly. Are they so much better they can just walk into a better then average teams HOUSE and win. Clearly not cause they have stumbled twice vs mediocre squads ARI and DEN. This rant could go on and on but I'll end it here. Spreads are a tool. Would you say Jax and pitt very equal strength wise? One was -3.5 the other +3.5 in the same venue. You should never say to yourself I think so and so team will win so I think they can cover 4 points because its basically the same thing. NEVER ! ! !
You should also realize the BOOKS are not getting killed with the Patriots great run. Despite covering every spread. For what ever reason the PATS have never been a public team despite ridiculous success. You look at every PAts game and tell how the books got killed. You think in week 1 everyone lined up to play the Pats -6.5 or Jets +6.5 at home? You didn't see the Dolphins line go down to 15.5 yesterday? Isn't that a indication more Miami money was coming in? I saw the same thing with the Browns game at home 16.5 all week then 15.5 on game day. You think they got killed with the Boys catching 5 at home? I know most people thought -16.5 was to much to lay to Buffalo..what about -3.5 vs SD...
Show me the game where there was so much money on NE the books were overwhelmed and moved the spread higher in there favor on game day? That's why books win. People don't know what they are talking about. While NE has been awesome. Lets remember there division absolutely sucks as has most of there competition. What you have to understand is Sir Bill is a genius because he knows football BUT he knows how turn his players into robots. The Pats NEVER beat themselves and rarely make mistakes. That's there key. So when people keep saying the spread is to high and gets cheaper on game day. look for more NE covers....there missing the point. Well oiled machine versus bad teams = Blowout. I'll be the first to say I thought it was alot of points yesterday but I also said NE had to be up 4 TDS to be comfortable. That's exactly what happened. What does that mean for this week...I don't know yet but WASH is a step up in competition from Buffalo , NYJ , Miami but its clear NE is on a mission.
Indy @ Jags
The more I think about this game I see a similiarity. Isnt this game just a repeat of last nite? How so ? Well Indy played w/o 3 starters (key starters) at home vs TB laying what most thought was to many points (-10)and rolled. Then they had a BYE and got healthy now traveling. Didnt Pitt play w/o 3 starters and suprisingly shut down the Seahawks 21-0. Then went on a BYE and got healthy. Pitt got inflated and built up laying to many points in Denver a team who underperformed. Now Indy off that fresh BYE and some home drubbings is laying to many points on the road ....crazy if you ask me.......
Real interested to know if Marvin Harrison will play tonite. Some off the top of my head comments. First is the Colts have not run the ball well in its two road games against Tenny and Houston. The Jags really are a better version of the Titans. Addai has 42c 153 yds but his long run is 9 yards!!!!!! We all know how well the Jags run unit has been since the opener. The Jags weakness is its pass defense. Last 3 weeks 269 yds allowed through the air (7.4 ypa) and 208 yards at home (7.1ypa). On the flip side Drew is getting HOT so to speak with back to back games where he busted free for a 50 + yard TD run. I don't buy into the Colts run defense being that improved. First cause they lost Booger MacFarland before the season started then early on lost Rob Morris. Bob Sanders missed last week and is always banged up. The Jags will run the ball here. Okay so maybe not 350 yards like last year but they will run for better then 4 YPC.
Something else that stands out is how well the JAGS offense has moved the ball but how many times it stumbled when it came to putting up points. You could make a case for them routinely leaving 10 points a game on the sideline. Even Indy hasnt been as crisp on the road this season offensively.
Basically my early feel is this another situation where a team plays at home like its there SUPER BOWL. Only 3rd ever MNF game for Jacksonville. The ugly shutout vs Pitt and later dismantling off a struggling NYG team. The Jags defense has also benefited from sloppy offenses as well. They should have allowed moe points. Neither team has played a good opponent really. The Jags facing a bounce teams struggling in KC & Den and Indy playing overrated teams like TB , Den , NO.
At this time looking at the Jags. Remember how MNF and probably most Primetime NFL games work. The spread doesnt matter except when its double digits. So pick the winner in your head. The fav just lay the points. The dog just take the ML. get creative and play the fav minus the points and the dog on the ML and hope to scalp a few bucks.
Still researching this game ( Jags ML , +3.5 and Over 44.5). Simply dont see why Indy is favored in Jacksonville. I think a PKem game is more accurate line. The biggest number Indy was all season -10 vs Denver at home. Well Jax went to Denver and beat them pretty solid. I cant see jags being more then 7 / 8 if they played @ RCA Dome......
1- Looking for an accurate report on the weather.
2- Marvin Harrison's status. If he cannot got its a huge loss. Indy hasnt had a 3rd WR really using Dallas Clark in that role. With the passing game such a key I dont think they can afford not to have him. Moorehead and Gonzalez havent shown me much yet. The 3 WR is always what made Indys pass attack ridiculous factored in with a good pass catching TE. Funny isnt this exactly what NE has ? Moss and Stallworth with Welker playing the role of Brandon Stokely..
I have to say I love to read. Not sure how many read me . Anyway I do spend some time reading sports message boards and have to say I get a great laugh. So many people wagering on sports have no clue. They don't ever understand what goes into putting out a point spread. I don't mean to come off as arrogant but why do people constantly talk about things they don't know about like they re authorities?? Like Pittsburgh is a trap last nite. How is Pitt a trap ? How many times has Denver been a home dog ? Sure they looked( key phrase..looked as in perceived vs reality) like crap but is that a true indication of there team? Thats why the term VALUE in Sports wagering is misunderstood. Value isnt about getting certain odds better then the actually percentage chance of something winning. Its about situational picking spots where you can be ahead of the curve as in sports linesmakers adjusting lines. Remember I traded the real Yield Curve. You want to buy when things are oversold( sell when overbought) but you dont fight the market (EVER!!!). Meaning things work in extremes. Something may look cheap but whats to keep it from getting cheaper??( attention house buyers) How do you know?? Market sentiment . Sometimes sentiment changes to quickly like a team playing one good game or one bad game and everything is alright or fucked again. Shit happens to everyone. A bad game , a bad day at the plate , on the mound , etc...the key is making an educated guess if it was just that or an indicator of what is to come. There are no tricks or traps. Just people who think they are smarter then they really are. We all should be learning new things everyday !! This isn't really a specific reference to that game but a general comment. Remember why I liked Utah State so much on Saturday?? Value in sports betting has no specific numerical values. Its about exploiting a situation when the market has adjusted incorrectly or not quick enough. Think in baseball terms . You see a team like say the Pirates reel of a nice 7 game win streak. During that streak they may always be dogs. Actually just look at what Colorado has done. Why cause the market still sees the Rockies fighting to get to the playoffs barely hovering above 500 , the one who suffered the long losing streak, etc. Not the team on the field today which has played a certain way for 30 games. This creates value. Boston -170 last nite value. Not cause of price but intangibles. Enough with this . Feel free to email me or comment on the subject. Pretty soon they will be call me A.D( All Day) for my rants.
However if you actually follow the NFL the Steelers played some shit teams and its only true road contest was @ Arizona where they lost and struggled on offense. I thought Denver was supposed to be a good team this season according to the preseason chatter. Oh wait Denver got smoked at home by SD. Yes , the Broncos had sucked versus the run and underperformed all season. How many times were they dogs though? Home dogs ? Is Pitt the better team ? Clearly. Are they so much better they can just walk into a better then average teams HOUSE and win. Clearly not cause they have stumbled twice vs mediocre squads ARI and DEN. This rant could go on and on but I'll end it here. Spreads are a tool. Would you say Jax and pitt very equal strength wise? One was -3.5 the other +3.5 in the same venue. You should never say to yourself I think so and so team will win so I think they can cover 4 points because its basically the same thing. NEVER ! ! !
You should also realize the BOOKS are not getting killed with the Patriots great run. Despite covering every spread. For what ever reason the PATS have never been a public team despite ridiculous success. You look at every PAts game and tell how the books got killed. You think in week 1 everyone lined up to play the Pats -6.5 or Jets +6.5 at home? You didn't see the Dolphins line go down to 15.5 yesterday? Isn't that a indication more Miami money was coming in? I saw the same thing with the Browns game at home 16.5 all week then 15.5 on game day. You think they got killed with the Boys catching 5 at home? I know most people thought -16.5 was to much to lay to Buffalo..what about -3.5 vs SD...
Show me the game where there was so much money on NE the books were overwhelmed and moved the spread higher in there favor on game day? That's why books win. People don't know what they are talking about. While NE has been awesome. Lets remember there division absolutely sucks as has most of there competition. What you have to understand is Sir Bill is a genius because he knows football BUT he knows how turn his players into robots. The Pats NEVER beat themselves and rarely make mistakes. That's there key. So when people keep saying the spread is to high and gets cheaper on game day. look for more NE covers....there missing the point. Well oiled machine versus bad teams = Blowout. I'll be the first to say I thought it was alot of points yesterday but I also said NE had to be up 4 TDS to be comfortable. That's exactly what happened. What does that mean for this week...I don't know yet but WASH is a step up in competition from Buffalo , NYJ , Miami but its clear NE is on a mission.
Indy @ Jags
The more I think about this game I see a similiarity. Isnt this game just a repeat of last nite? How so ? Well Indy played w/o 3 starters (key starters) at home vs TB laying what most thought was to many points (-10)and rolled. Then they had a BYE and got healthy now traveling. Didnt Pitt play w/o 3 starters and suprisingly shut down the Seahawks 21-0. Then went on a BYE and got healthy. Pitt got inflated and built up laying to many points in Denver a team who underperformed. Now Indy off that fresh BYE and some home drubbings is laying to many points on the road ....crazy if you ask me.......
Real interested to know if Marvin Harrison will play tonite. Some off the top of my head comments. First is the Colts have not run the ball well in its two road games against Tenny and Houston. The Jags really are a better version of the Titans. Addai has 42c 153 yds but his long run is 9 yards!!!!!! We all know how well the Jags run unit has been since the opener. The Jags weakness is its pass defense. Last 3 weeks 269 yds allowed through the air (7.4 ypa) and 208 yards at home (7.1ypa). On the flip side Drew is getting HOT so to speak with back to back games where he busted free for a 50 + yard TD run. I don't buy into the Colts run defense being that improved. First cause they lost Booger MacFarland before the season started then early on lost Rob Morris. Bob Sanders missed last week and is always banged up. The Jags will run the ball here. Okay so maybe not 350 yards like last year but they will run for better then 4 YPC.
Something else that stands out is how well the JAGS offense has moved the ball but how many times it stumbled when it came to putting up points. You could make a case for them routinely leaving 10 points a game on the sideline. Even Indy hasnt been as crisp on the road this season offensively.
Basically my early feel is this another situation where a team plays at home like its there SUPER BOWL. Only 3rd ever MNF game for Jacksonville. The ugly shutout vs Pitt and later dismantling off a struggling NYG team. The Jags defense has also benefited from sloppy offenses as well. They should have allowed moe points. Neither team has played a good opponent really. The Jags facing a bounce teams struggling in KC & Den and Indy playing overrated teams like TB , Den , NO.
At this time looking at the Jags. Remember how MNF and probably most Primetime NFL games work. The spread doesnt matter except when its double digits. So pick the winner in your head. The fav just lay the points. The dog just take the ML. get creative and play the fav minus the points and the dog on the ML and hope to scalp a few bucks.
Still researching this game ( Jags ML , +3.5 and Over 44.5). Simply dont see why Indy is favored in Jacksonville. I think a PKem game is more accurate line. The biggest number Indy was all season -10 vs Denver at home. Well Jax went to Denver and beat them pretty solid. I cant see jags being more then 7 / 8 if they played @ RCA Dome......
1- Looking for an accurate report on the weather.
2- Marvin Harrison's status. If he cannot got its a huge loss. Indy hasnt had a 3rd WR really using Dallas Clark in that role. With the passing game such a key I dont think they can afford not to have him. Moorehead and Gonzalez havent shown me much yet. The 3 WR is always what made Indys pass attack ridiculous factored in with a good pass catching TE. Funny isnt this exactly what NE has ? Moss and Stallworth with Welker playing the role of Brandon Stokely..
Sunday, October 21, 2007
NFL Sunday :
SO far just Bills +3 -125 and Over 44 -120 TB
Strong looks : NYG , Under 35 ARI , Over 44.5 TB , Over 33.5 Buff , Und 39 SF and Det ML
Thoughts and Plays :
NE @ Miami : I would lean towards grabbing the points simply its tough to cover such a high number. You have to basically be up 4 TDS comfortably most of the day. It can easily happen versus this bad Miami defense. However NE struggles to stop the run and thats something Miami can do. For the total I am thinking an over. I dont see how NE cant get to 35 especially since they womnt be running it much IMO. So logically speaking if I feel comfortable with at least NE 35+ points and I think Miami stays within 17 points...your looking at least 52 points against a 51 total..Miami has scored at least 17 in every game but one and we have seen consecutive teams move it versus NE. The key starting field position. They get you backed up and they are insanely tough but strat at the 30 or better and your chances are vastily improved beyond obvious NFL averages. NE red zone defense has been poor.
SF @ NYG : Looks like a big number but SF has shown they cannot move the ball consistently and score. Gore should struggle versus the NYG run defense. Think 10-13 pts here for SF. Also think SF defense is very good and this slides under 24-10 final. Look at what NY has done defense since WASH halftime...NYJ 24 is mirage cheap fumble recovery for a TD and Leon Washington kick return otherwise offense produced 10 points.
TB @ Det : Not crazy about this but looking at past few weeks dont see how you can expect TB to win on the road. The offense has stalled. Det cant stop anyone so we think they should get 17 + here anyway. However the fact they allowed 33 @ Indy with some key players out makes me think DET will find 28 + here. SO over 44.5 and Det -2.5
Ten @ Hou : Probably a game I stay away from. Simply think TENNY defense is tough. So Hou will work to put points on the board. Houston defense at home has been solid and Collins lead offense may struggle. He can hit the big play but there are alot of question marks with Brandon Jones and Chris Brown OUT. Would prefer HOUSTON and like the UND 38.5
Ari @ Wash : The defenses will lead here. Many OL injuries for Wash. Rattay to start for ARI with Boldin returning. Simply put Wash doesnt blowout teams as DET was an exception and the game should see alot of FGs..ARI / UND
Atl @ NO : The battle of primetime games. ATL looked like shit vs NY cause they didnt execute and NO looked like the Sainst again cause SEA didnt execute. Saints laying more then a TD to anyone?? ATLs luster is they always hang around as BIG dogs...Falcons....Under 42.5 ...Crumpler OUT....
Balt @ Buffalo :Tons of injuries for Balt. The offense still didnt show much at home versus STL. If the defense doesnt setup scores then how does it happen. The Bills offense is better then what it showed vs Dallas IMO.....BILLS..Show me a good game Balt has played?/ Outside of roadies @ NE and Pitt where has Buffalo played a bad one?? Very PUBLIC Under which means OVER......21-14...
4 PM:
Jets +7
Under 46 Cowboys ( like 1st H under as well) (bought it to 47 earlier)
Rams +8
The Jets play hard but tend to come up short. With the LB issues the Jets should be able to run. Cincy will get some big plays but I still quetion there ability to move the chains consistently. Pennington's back is against the wall and his play is basically good minus the fact he tends to make crucial errors at the wrong times. Something he was known for not doing.
The UNDER in Dallas cause I think Minny hit way to many big plays vs Chi. AP wont be able to run as easily here. Dallas is a slow starting team..28-17 worst case I believe.
Rams have looked horrid but Seattle plays scared. Some healthy players back for STL should be a bonus as the defense has been decent. Dog tens to bark in the series. Looks like bad weather as well...
SO far just Bills +3 -125 and Over 44 -120 TB
Strong looks : NYG , Under 35 ARI , Over 44.5 TB , Over 33.5 Buff , Und 39 SF and Det ML
Thoughts and Plays :
NE @ Miami : I would lean towards grabbing the points simply its tough to cover such a high number. You have to basically be up 4 TDS comfortably most of the day. It can easily happen versus this bad Miami defense. However NE struggles to stop the run and thats something Miami can do. For the total I am thinking an over. I dont see how NE cant get to 35 especially since they womnt be running it much IMO. So logically speaking if I feel comfortable with at least NE 35+ points and I think Miami stays within 17 points...your looking at least 52 points against a 51 total..Miami has scored at least 17 in every game but one and we have seen consecutive teams move it versus NE. The key starting field position. They get you backed up and they are insanely tough but strat at the 30 or better and your chances are vastily improved beyond obvious NFL averages. NE red zone defense has been poor.
SF @ NYG : Looks like a big number but SF has shown they cannot move the ball consistently and score. Gore should struggle versus the NYG run defense. Think 10-13 pts here for SF. Also think SF defense is very good and this slides under 24-10 final. Look at what NY has done defense since WASH halftime...NYJ 24 is mirage cheap fumble recovery for a TD and Leon Washington kick return otherwise offense produced 10 points.
TB @ Det : Not crazy about this but looking at past few weeks dont see how you can expect TB to win on the road. The offense has stalled. Det cant stop anyone so we think they should get 17 + here anyway. However the fact they allowed 33 @ Indy with some key players out makes me think DET will find 28 + here. SO over 44.5 and Det -2.5
Ten @ Hou : Probably a game I stay away from. Simply think TENNY defense is tough. So Hou will work to put points on the board. Houston defense at home has been solid and Collins lead offense may struggle. He can hit the big play but there are alot of question marks with Brandon Jones and Chris Brown OUT. Would prefer HOUSTON and like the UND 38.5
Ari @ Wash : The defenses will lead here. Many OL injuries for Wash. Rattay to start for ARI with Boldin returning. Simply put Wash doesnt blowout teams as DET was an exception and the game should see alot of FGs..ARI / UND
Atl @ NO : The battle of primetime games. ATL looked like shit vs NY cause they didnt execute and NO looked like the Sainst again cause SEA didnt execute. Saints laying more then a TD to anyone?? ATLs luster is they always hang around as BIG dogs...Falcons....Under 42.5 ...Crumpler OUT....
Balt @ Buffalo :Tons of injuries for Balt. The offense still didnt show much at home versus STL. If the defense doesnt setup scores then how does it happen. The Bills offense is better then what it showed vs Dallas IMO.....BILLS..Show me a good game Balt has played?/ Outside of roadies @ NE and Pitt where has Buffalo played a bad one?? Very PUBLIC Under which means OVER......21-14...
4 PM:
Jets +7
Under 46 Cowboys ( like 1st H under as well) (bought it to 47 earlier)
Rams +8
The Jets play hard but tend to come up short. With the LB issues the Jets should be able to run. Cincy will get some big plays but I still quetion there ability to move the chains consistently. Pennington's back is against the wall and his play is basically good minus the fact he tends to make crucial errors at the wrong times. Something he was known for not doing.
The UNDER in Dallas cause I think Minny hit way to many big plays vs Chi. AP wont be able to run as easily here. Dallas is a slow starting team..28-17 worst case I believe.
Rams have looked horrid but Seattle plays scared. Some healthy players back for STL should be a bonus as the defense has been decent. Dog tens to bark in the series. Looks like bad weather as well...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)