Opening Day 2007 MLB

In looking at this matchup at first glance it could appear that Carpenter and STL are cheaper then expected. You have the World Champs at home with there stud on the mound and they have won 14 of his 19 home starts with a 1.75 ERA. After looking at this from every angle I uncovered some interesting trends. On the surface you have both teams aces dealing after excellent springs which they both proved they are ready for 6 or 7 innings at least on Sunday. The Cards were 55-33 at home including the postseason so why just -140 or why does 140 seem low to me ?

Truth is alot of thing stick out here that you had to look for. In 2006 the Cardinals struggled when opposing a LHP SP. Which I feel has alot to do with emergence of Chris Duncan. Duncan a young LH power hitter will have his struggles vs LHP. They finished the regular season 27-37 vs LHP(4-3 in postseason). They did go 14-16 at home vs LHP in the regular season which left them at 9-18 vs LHP away. Suprisingly they were only 54-63 at nite. Which means they were 40-20 in daylight. The Mets were a solid 49-36 away including postseason. They were a sound 77-48 vs RHP including postseason and 66-50 at nite. All minor factors that seem to indicate NY has the edge.

The Mets have the chance to get some revenge on STL for defeating them in the NLCS and thwarting there World Series aspirations. For St.Louis it will be all fun and games due to the fact its Opening nite and they are raising the World Series banner. It doesnt get better. So while I dont really deal in revenge I think distracted could be a fair word here for this situation.

The Mets were 12-5 in Glavine's away starts. Looking at the stats you wont be impressed by his 4.72 away ERA. You have to dig deeper though and realize its a hand full of starts skewing his numbers. You also most factor in that Glavine pitched pretty solid @ Busch during the 06 regular season. Him being LH certainly is a huge plus when looking at STL lineup and track record. He also was 8-2 last season with a mid 2's ERA at the end of May last season. He has pitched better at nite then during the day last 2 seasons.

While Carpenter is one of the best game the Mets ability to hit RHP cant go unnoticed especially if we recall that he didnt look that sharp in the NCLS which to be fair were road games. The Mets have two RH bats in Wright and LoDuca who hit well above 300 vs RHP. That is rare. Newcomer Moises Alou has good career numbers vs Carpenter and hit 285 vs RHP last season. There worst hitter vs RH is Green who hit only mid 260's in that situation as a Met last season. Beltran , Delgado , Reyes and Valentin all hit .280 + something. At nite Carpenter 's ERA was a full run higher at 3.40 compared to 2.40. The bottomline is the best chance to hit Carpenter is march a bunch of LH sticks out there which NY can( LHB hit about .265BAA past 2 seasons). He is death on RHB(about .205 BAA) the fact that NYM can boast three that succeed vs RH is a plus though. Again not major factors but sutile pluses for NYM.

The bottomline is STL hasnt hit much this Spring while adding Kennedy to replace Belliard which is a negative here IMO and NYM is just beginning to swing well. I would not expect much offense in this game as both SP seem to be in regular season form already. I know Glavine has pitched 6 shutout innings and Carpenter 7 shutout innings telling us they can at least go that deep at peak performance. The pens are questions marks but for possibly 2 innings with a day off secheduled on Monday I am not that concerned. I see a low scoring game here that NY wins by a run. The Cards failed to break 3 runs in 14 of 30 at home vs LHP( or 4 runs in 18 of 30).

Strong leans ( and probable plays) :

New York Mets +135 {3.5units} ARL -1.5 +200 {.75 units}
Under 8 +105{3units}