Sound and simple Friday. Thanks to a heads up last nite on the weather the UNDER was never really in doubt( game or 1st Half). I know alot people look at games and start to think they got screwed. The difference between winning and losing is so tiny ( remember how I feel about momentum!!!!) . Keep a team around and sooner or later something bad will happen...EVERY TIME! However the simple prospective to keep is the RIGHT play WINS and the WRONG play LOSES. Why? Easy. You make a decision before the game. You make the right decision it plays out in your favor. You make the wrong decision you do not get the breaks. You cant really expect to cap a game and know how it will play out. Look how many people are involved a football game . As I said earlier last week the VILLE did not beat Cincy but they won and UConn lost @ UVA but wasn't exactly beaten. Funny how karma works. There is a MAJOR difference when you are laying chalk especially road chalk. Sure its clear the better team is Lville after watching four quarters but they didn't win. Oh and Kragthorpe(sp?) is a poor in-game coach IMO. Why cause they were in situation with little room for error tonite as road chalk. That's why I say understand situations. The difference between +10 @ cincy and -3 @ Uconn is beyond 13 points and a lesser opponent. Anyway tough breaks for East Michigan and Lville backers. I don't see how though either team deserved to win though. People think USF deserved to win last nite? I guess Rutgers fumbling the punt twice and GIVING 7 points away shouldn't matter. The face mask penalty to keep Lville 1st scoring drive alive doesn't matter? You cant circle one play and not another. Yes, that call by the refs was awful but it happens. LVille had only a gift TD for a 7-0 lead...they missed the muff punt later on as well..nothing ever evens out but it doesn't have to. Nothing is EVEN or Fair...
Bottom line is SHIT HAPPENS. Make the proper read and decision before the game starts and you will be rewarded. Hard work equals Good Luck . Sorry for the ramble but time and time again people think they lost and made the right play. How is that possible.
Two plays already in for SAT :
Temple +6 but I bought it to +7 . Either way I like the same just rather pay for a key number.
Utah State +7.5 :( with bad weather the UNDER 64 is a play)
What again is the first mistake being made in this matchup? Somehow comparing hanging @ Boise State to winning and laying -7 @ Utah State. What happened @ Boise? First Nevada lost its starting QB playing a kid no one really knew much about. Nevada had given up a ton of points at home To Fresno and Boise embarrassed a bad NMST team w/o its starting QB. So Boise State had looked better then they really were and Nevada looked much worse. What you got was Nevada catching more points then NMST was the previous week. If you have watched NMST on the road in the past you know they cant stop anyone. For me I had Boise State in that game and flipped to Nevada last week. Know I fade Nevada cause being overlooked is how you can score on this defense. Now if you cant stop your opponent from putting up points how can you EXPECT to win by more then a TD?? Alot of Utah State suck comments flying around message boards.I guess they only watched the Oklahoma game. Come on now we all know what a mismatch that is .
The opener at home versus the played UNLV. The same UNLV team that was 3.5 dogs @ nevada and lost by 7 when Graziano played. Okay so Utah State lead 10-3 at half and I think 10-9 to start the 4th. So they were very much in that game. What makes Utah State IMO a bad team?/ The failure to win close games which makes them risky as fav and / or risky as small dog when you need them to win to cover. Catching 7 you don't need to win you need to be in the game in the 4th quarter. They travel to Wyoming and again lead to start the 4th quarter. Which they did even not converting a third down that day 0/13!! They lose late to SJST ( and I was on the Spartans that day , they keep from betting blasted by an improving Utah team(24-10 @ Half). They played @ Hawaii and keep most of the game within 20 points even leading in the second quarter.
Ask yourself whats so 'sexy' about Nevada. They got smoked @ nebraska , played a decent game against a mid level major conference school in Northwestern , they lost @ home to Fresno and lost in OT @ Boise State. You know they allowed 206 pts in those 4 games . Ther only wins are a TD win against UNLV which came in the final minute of a backandforth contest and Nicholls State! Utah State is ugly to look at with the exception of its one play maker Kevin Robinson...+230 or better ML gimme some please!!
Temple : Is a similar idea. Who even thought Miami Ohio could beat Bowling Green at home last week> Now you will run and lay 6 or 7 at Temple? For the most part offense has been a struggle for Miami Ohio . Temple I think has issues with TURNOVERS on offense more then moving the ball. Again really same logic . Temple is a team that finds way to stick around. Miami Ohio had wins of 1,7,7 before last week. Hell they were home dogs before it was all said and done !! Again nice value @ +200 or better on the ML... They were barely favored at home vs Syracuse.......Just a play against an inflated line versus a team we don't know what to make except they have improved and have potential on both sides of the ball to make plays......
Huge card as usual to sift through...as I add I will comment....
Good Luck....
Some Early leans were :
Indiana +7.5 / Over 53
Over 61 Clemson ( this is play)
Under Pitt 50
Under 51 Wisky
Under 46 Purdue
Bama ML
Under 57.5 Oklahoma
Vandy +13
Over 61 Navy
- Probably will play the Navy / Wake total. Its been shown time and time again that Navy cannot stop anyone on defense. However I loved how well the offense played at Pitt. WOuld guess both teams are in the 30s here.
-Not sure about Vandy on the road but they should keep this around a 10 pt margin...27-17 type game....probably play this as well
-The Under @ Iowa State strictly a lean. Thinking 42-14 type game.
-Bama cause I feel like they are being overlooked here. I had them -1.5 not a dog....
3:30 starts:(snuck in a late Wyoming play and hoping to get West Mich and Neb at Halftime with lines better then the original)
Under 45 Notre Dame or 1st Half Under( only play at this time slot)
Leans :
Over 64.5 Troy {waiting till half though)
Ark St +3(maybe buy to +3.5) or ML
Over 74 Texas Tech
Good day so far wish I actually played more of my thoughts...
7PMs:
Under 54 Boise St
Under 60 Okl State
Thats it for now. I did lean towards Over @ UAB , Over @ Toledo and UNDER @ ULMonroe which I will revise at HALFTIME.
7:30
1st H Under 33 Oregon -120
Lean Wash +13
Simply think that Oregons offense could start slow with some injuries. Wash defense has been solid at home especially in the 1st H of games. Wash St offense has struggled...
Lookahead spot for Oregon off a blowout..??
GL
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Friday, October 19, 2007
In the end the plays were right but way to much worrying involved at the end. Rutgers was just itching to give that game to USF. Then with 8 runs on the board it seemed every last half inning had a runner on 3rd base...
In review:
Pending Rutgers ML , Under 8.5 runs Boston / Cleveland and Under 62 Louisville @ UConn 3 tm Parlay
Under 60 Lville
Under 31 -120 1st H
UConn +3.5 {lean}
Northwestern -10 {lean}
Under 58.5 Eastern Mich {lean}
As you could probably guess I like the UNDER @ UConn. Alot of it has to do with the high probability they play on a muddy field. You can no longer grab 62 though as the total is now in the 59-60 range.
The Ville defense as we know has huge issues especially in the passing game. The key here is I think the passing game could be hampered due to a combination of muddy field and rain. This is just a guess though as I am not in Connecticut. I would really like to see Donald Brown play here cause along with a mobile QB I think this would give the home team a huge edge. Huskies can stop the run and the Ville really havent been able to pound it this season. What has to be thought about is Douglas and Urratia healthy again.
I think we saw that UConn is probably the slightly better team then UVA because UVA enjoys such a strong home field edge and barely slipped by the Huskies thanks to miscues. So long story short I prefer the UNDER due to weather which should also slow the Ville passing game and make sustaining drives harder. While I may get involved later I prefer the home dog . For logical reasons . Lville won a road game away they could have lost and UVA lost a game they could have won. People will look solely at UConn schedule and think like RU they are overrated. However what exactly has LVille done besides sneak past Cincy??
The other game EMU is not pushing Schmitt from what I understand and will start the youngster instead. Tough spot playing in a pro stadium versus a step up in competition Big Ten school. Not interested at the moment in laying -10 but would if I had to. Thinking 38-14 here so lean UNDER as well....
GL
In review:
Pending Rutgers ML , Under 8.5 runs Boston / Cleveland and Under 62 Louisville @ UConn 3 tm Parlay
Under 60 Lville
Under 31 -120 1st H
UConn +3.5 {lean}
Northwestern -10 {lean}
Under 58.5 Eastern Mich {lean}
As you could probably guess I like the UNDER @ UConn. Alot of it has to do with the high probability they play on a muddy field. You can no longer grab 62 though as the total is now in the 59-60 range.
The Ville defense as we know has huge issues especially in the passing game. The key here is I think the passing game could be hampered due to a combination of muddy field and rain. This is just a guess though as I am not in Connecticut. I would really like to see Donald Brown play here cause along with a mobile QB I think this would give the home team a huge edge. Huskies can stop the run and the Ville really havent been able to pound it this season. What has to be thought about is Douglas and Urratia healthy again.
I think we saw that UConn is probably the slightly better team then UVA because UVA enjoys such a strong home field edge and barely slipped by the Huskies thanks to miscues. So long story short I prefer the UNDER due to weather which should also slow the Ville passing game and make sustaining drives harder. While I may get involved later I prefer the home dog . For logical reasons . Lville won a road game away they could have lost and UVA lost a game they could have won. People will look solely at UConn schedule and think like RU they are overrated. However what exactly has LVille done besides sneak past Cincy??
The other game EMU is not pushing Schmitt from what I understand and will start the youngster instead. Tough spot playing in a pro stadium versus a step up in competition Big Ten school. Not interested at the moment in laying -10 but would if I had to. Thinking 38-14 here so lean UNDER as well....
GL
Thursday, October 18, 2007
College Football
Tonite :
Rutgers ML
Under 8.5 Cleveland
{parlay them with the Under @ UConn tmrw)
For leans prefer Cleveland +110. TCU and the UNDER but strange move makes me feel like I am missing something. The RU total is a mystery. Its fairly high considering previous total sets for these two. I had said I see 51 pts worst case but what I dont like is this total is higher then last weeks game vs UCF. So with that I believe we dont see more then 52 points. I think 28-24 is wosre case for this game I dont see it being higher. I will say RU wins 23-20...Nice to see some downward movement on the totals....
Rutgers ML or buy it to +3 from +2
I look at this game and I see a RU team no one truly knows what to make of. We saw them beat a bunch of cupcakes and implode vs Cincy and Maryland. Part of the problem is there defense has been very average in those games . With USF I dont see a team whose marquee wins shine as much as they should. Sorry , you can talk about winning @ Auburn but if we remember correctly it was when the Tigers were struggling mightily. So bad they were 17 pt dogs at Fla soon there after. So nice job by USF to win in OT but I wouldnt say USF beat Auburn. I think Auburn beat Auburn. To me there is a difference. Especially when your installing that team as a road favorite. Also I see a much stronger team at home so looking at the WVU game is probably not a good indicator. Again WVU didnt exactly get smoked but they lost. The key to the game was Grothe's scramble where he connected for a 55yd TD to a wide open WR. Also not lost is Pat White being hobbled and playing just the 1st Half(Slayton just 13 carries). USF didnt even manage 300 yards of offense and was 7 point dogs.
Ray Rice has two huge games vs USF 158 and 202. Naturally we know RU has a nice home field edge though it certainly doesnt guarnatee victory. I dont see how RU could be small favs last year and win but now be small dogs at home. Thats a pretty bug role change. Then as I said look at the fact USF was 7 pt dogs to a down Auburn team and at home vs WVU. They were undervalued vs WVU , then promptly overvalued @ FAU where they barely won. Now they go home and everyone is like UCF a team that was 17 pt home dogs to Texas and some sort of instate rival was gonna give USF a game. Only -10 at home to UCF a team with a historically BAD defense. I am not usre USF is any better then Cincy and I am not sure this game should be anything other then say RU -2.5....
Play: RUTGERS
I dont have a feel for the total but if I had to guess I would say OVER 52. The Scarlet Knight defense has been so-so and I would expect 24 points from USF . Expecting RU to win SU means I basically envision a worst case scenario of 27-24..
MLB Playoffs :
Under 8.5 -120 or 8 @ + money
In Game 1 I thought we saw an overadjustment with the total opening at 8.5 down to 8 at Fenway Park. Fenway as we all know is a notorious hitters park. Here at the Jake I can understand an 8.5 total and even the move down to 8 runs. Both guys started an pitched 1-0 games at the Jake this year vs there opponents. Beckett has been outstanding in 3 starts vs Cle this year and CC had been good in his past two but struggled mightily at Fenway last week. Naturally a concern . The Yankee lineup is tougher and CC battled through 5 innings. At home his ERA is only 3.21 and he allowed 3.70 runs per start in 2007. Whats huge is Beckett allowing 1.92 with a 2.08 ERA. Both pens are rested again.
The past two and a half games have seen Bostons lineup sluggish. They didnt score after teh 6-6 tie in the 5th. Then they waited for a 2 run HR by Varitek in the 7th and three consecutive solo shots the next nite. Now they did CC hit well in Game 1 BUT he did allow just 9 hrs in 19 starts. Take out the long ball and Boston hasnt been able to produce runs. Beckett has been great and we all hope his mystery injury is nothing significant.
Tonite we see the pitching duel expected in Game 1 ....Personally I like Cle dont see how this game isnt a PKem at Bos -120 the value lies in Cle......Also both SP hold runners well and I think that with limited baserunners(both SP have OBP allowed below 300) you have to play small ball..
Rest of the card:
Utah @ TCU : It seem sthe TCU offense is improving and the defense isnt exactly what we expected. However how heavily can we weigh two road games. To me thisgame screams UNDER yet the total keeps creeping up? I would have expected an OVERWHELMING amount of UNDER backers here....For a side while Utah has played well of late and amassed 500 yards of offense last week I think playing in 85 degree weather could be a challenge. I think TCU looking at the imroving offense and how awesoem the DEF was at home is the play.....GL
Tonite :
Rutgers ML
Under 8.5 Cleveland
{parlay them with the Under @ UConn tmrw)
For leans prefer Cleveland +110. TCU and the UNDER but strange move makes me feel like I am missing something. The RU total is a mystery. Its fairly high considering previous total sets for these two. I had said I see 51 pts worst case but what I dont like is this total is higher then last weeks game vs UCF. So with that I believe we dont see more then 52 points. I think 28-24 is wosre case for this game I dont see it being higher. I will say RU wins 23-20...Nice to see some downward movement on the totals....
Rutgers ML or buy it to +3 from +2
I look at this game and I see a RU team no one truly knows what to make of. We saw them beat a bunch of cupcakes and implode vs Cincy and Maryland. Part of the problem is there defense has been very average in those games . With USF I dont see a team whose marquee wins shine as much as they should. Sorry , you can talk about winning @ Auburn but if we remember correctly it was when the Tigers were struggling mightily. So bad they were 17 pt dogs at Fla soon there after. So nice job by USF to win in OT but I wouldnt say USF beat Auburn. I think Auburn beat Auburn. To me there is a difference. Especially when your installing that team as a road favorite. Also I see a much stronger team at home so looking at the WVU game is probably not a good indicator. Again WVU didnt exactly get smoked but they lost. The key to the game was Grothe's scramble where he connected for a 55yd TD to a wide open WR. Also not lost is Pat White being hobbled and playing just the 1st Half(Slayton just 13 carries). USF didnt even manage 300 yards of offense and was 7 point dogs.
Ray Rice has two huge games vs USF 158 and 202. Naturally we know RU has a nice home field edge though it certainly doesnt guarnatee victory. I dont see how RU could be small favs last year and win but now be small dogs at home. Thats a pretty bug role change. Then as I said look at the fact USF was 7 pt dogs to a down Auburn team and at home vs WVU. They were undervalued vs WVU , then promptly overvalued @ FAU where they barely won. Now they go home and everyone is like UCF a team that was 17 pt home dogs to Texas and some sort of instate rival was gonna give USF a game. Only -10 at home to UCF a team with a historically BAD defense. I am not usre USF is any better then Cincy and I am not sure this game should be anything other then say RU -2.5....
Play: RUTGERS
I dont have a feel for the total but if I had to guess I would say OVER 52. The Scarlet Knight defense has been so-so and I would expect 24 points from USF . Expecting RU to win SU means I basically envision a worst case scenario of 27-24..
MLB Playoffs :
Under 8.5 -120 or 8 @ + money
In Game 1 I thought we saw an overadjustment with the total opening at 8.5 down to 8 at Fenway Park. Fenway as we all know is a notorious hitters park. Here at the Jake I can understand an 8.5 total and even the move down to 8 runs. Both guys started an pitched 1-0 games at the Jake this year vs there opponents. Beckett has been outstanding in 3 starts vs Cle this year and CC had been good in his past two but struggled mightily at Fenway last week. Naturally a concern . The Yankee lineup is tougher and CC battled through 5 innings. At home his ERA is only 3.21 and he allowed 3.70 runs per start in 2007. Whats huge is Beckett allowing 1.92 with a 2.08 ERA. Both pens are rested again.
The past two and a half games have seen Bostons lineup sluggish. They didnt score after teh 6-6 tie in the 5th. Then they waited for a 2 run HR by Varitek in the 7th and three consecutive solo shots the next nite. Now they did CC hit well in Game 1 BUT he did allow just 9 hrs in 19 starts. Take out the long ball and Boston hasnt been able to produce runs. Beckett has been great and we all hope his mystery injury is nothing significant.
Tonite we see the pitching duel expected in Game 1 ....Personally I like Cle dont see how this game isnt a PKem at Bos -120 the value lies in Cle......Also both SP hold runners well and I think that with limited baserunners(both SP have OBP allowed below 300) you have to play small ball..
Rest of the card:
Utah @ TCU : It seem sthe TCU offense is improving and the defense isnt exactly what we expected. However how heavily can we weigh two road games. To me thisgame screams UNDER yet the total keeps creeping up? I would have expected an OVERWHELMING amount of UNDER backers here....For a side while Utah has played well of late and amassed 500 yards of offense last week I think playing in 85 degree weather could be a challenge. I think TCU looking at the imroving offense and how awesoem the DEF was at home is the play.....GL
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Made some minor mistakes yesterday. First playing the 1st Half Under instead of Under 44. The second was not focusing on the fact that ATL did not know how to win football games . If you watched in every facet of the game they continually made plays and decisions to lose it. Monday Nite for awhile is simple picking the winner and that should be remembered. There is so many things I question from a coaching standpoint about ATL but so many chances pissed away by drops by ATL players.
The ALCS:
Last night was alot of what I expected. You had pitchers battling all night and getting out of jams. Only a 4-2 game but a couple of key hits could have put alot more runs on the board.
So what do I see tonite. First lets look at Wakefield. How does anyone gauge what to expect?? The guy was excellent until he got hurt & since then he has been fairly poor. Now he hasn't pitched in weeks(9/29) and received a cortisone shot for his back/shoulder. Since the end of the season he has thrown on the side obviously and a simulated game which lasted 5 innings and 77 pitches. Now off the top of my head I would wonder how deep he can go into a game and how many pitches he can throw?? My guess 6 innings and / or 90 pitches. His 1st two starts after injury were awful and then the next 3 were what I would categorize as average or fair. In the past mostly against my Yankees he was excellent in the postseason. He didn't face Cle in 2007 and only once in 2006. On the road this year even with a few shit starts in SEPT he was pretty good but battled poor run support. His 7-8 4.26 ERA and 1.37 WHIP lead to a 12-4 UNDER record with 4.38 runs support and 3.44 allowed. Mirabelli will catch and you can run on them 27 for 33. Last year Wake struggled on the road I think the difference this year was how unbelievable well he picthed in domes ( spec Tor and TB). Look at his grass numbers 5.63 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
For Byrd I am wondering if his two year struggle at the Jake is related to it being a QuesTec Stadium. This year at Home 95 Inn 132 Hits 63run 60 earned 15hr 17 bb 45 Ks 5.68 ERA 1.57 WHIP .328BAA and .322LHBAA. His numbers in night starts were almost as poor : 4.88 ERA 1.42 WHIP .304 BAA . Last season he was 81.1 INN 101 H 58 runs 49 earned 7hrs 20 bb 42 K 5.42 ERA 1.51 WHIP .303 BAA .369 LHBAA. Again his night stats are poor 117.2 Inn 170 H 94 runs 74 earned 5.66 ERA 1.69 WHIP .333BAA.
Bottom line is Byrd should get hit the amount of runs scored against him lies in how Boston does with RISP. Plain and simple.
My feeling is Boston ties the series tonite but to do so I think they most outscore Cle which means RUNS based on the SP. Also if you get only 5 innings of the SP we know the backend relievers are good but the middle relievers can be shaky on both sides. As I mentioned yesterday the O/U numbers for this situation point to under and the teams dont hit RHP that well in the situation either.
Play the Over 10 -115
Like it however you can slice it 1stt 5 Innings over and R,H,E over 30 as well.....BOL
******Now I see Garko is out of the lineup for Shoppach and I am rethinking my play. Hate that all that work and odd changes surface..After some thought I will stick with the OVER 10 runs. Wake is a question mark who holds a 5.73 ERA in his grass starts and before this year had struggled on the road. Big reason he didnt this year was 7 or 8 starts coming indoors of 16....
Some interesting stats: Taken from YahooSports via Insiders EDGE. This is not my work a simple cut and paste.
HITTERS
• Boston will start veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in Game 4. While the knuckleball is in a class by itself, the Indians did rank third in the major leagues with a .272 well-hit average against pitches slower than 77 mph. Franklin Gutierrez was excellent against soft off-speed pitches this year. The young outfielder batted .330 (35-for-106) against pitches slower than 77 mph.
• The man the Indians want at the plate with runners in scoring position and two outs is Kenny Lofton. The 40-year-old outfielder is hitting .750 (6-for-8) with a homerun in this situation. All six of his hits have come off of fastballs.
• Sixty percent of Paul Byrd's fastballs that have been put in play have been hit in the air. That should be good news for David Ortiz, who batted .519 when he was able to get right-handed fastballs airborne this season.
• One massive bat in the Red Sox lineup would prefer the heat to be turned up on Byrd's 85 mph fastball. Manny Ramirez batted .214 (12-for-56) against right-handed fastballs between 82 and 88 mph this season.
• If Byrd is able to keep his off-speed pitches down in the strike zone expect the Sox hitters to struggle. They ranked dead last in the majors with a .159 batting average against low, non-fastballs from righties. No one has struggled more than Coco Crisp, who was 6-for-60 with 25 strikeouts against these pitches.
PITCHERS
• Byrd threw his fastball 1786 times this season and a whopping 73 percent of them were strikes. That was the second-highest fastball strike percentage among AL starting pitchers.
• Which AL starting pitcher threw his fastball for a strike more often than Byrd? Boston's Game 4 starter, Tim Wakefield. The knuckleballer only used his fastball 366 times, but 279 were strikes, or 76 percent.
• Being around the zone is a good thing, but Byrd will be particularly successful if he can hit his spot down and away from right-handed batters:
Right-handed batters vs. Byrd's fastball in the strike zone (from pitcher's viewpoint)
Fastball Location Away Middle In
Up .313 .320 .333
Middle .302 .250 .455
Down .120 .563 .200
• Indians relievers have delivered some nasty breaking balls this postseason. Opponents are hitting only .115 (3-for-26) against their curves and sliders. Ironically, all three hits were home runs.
• Wakefield has dominated the first three hitters in opposing lineups, but has struggled against the bottom of the order:
Wakefield vs. lineup spot in 2007
Hitters 1-3 in lineup Hitters 7-9 in lineup
Batting Avg. .223 (58-for-260) .318 (71-for-223)
Slugging Pct. .304 (79-for-260) .498 (111-for-223)
ALCS GAME 4 MATCHUP NOTES
TIM WAKEFIELD (RED SOX) VS. PAUL BYRD (INDIANS)
Indians hitters who match up well vs. Wakefield
Victor Martinez The switch-hitting catcher bats from the right side against the veteran knuckleballer for good reason. Martinez is 3-for-5 with a homer against Wakefield.
Chris Gomez The backup infielder has posted huge numbers against Wakefield in the past. His .625 career slugging percentage against the Boston right-hander ranks fifth among all active players who have faced him 20 times or more.
Jason Michaels Has hit the knuck (1-for-3 against it) and has the lowest chase rate of all Tribe hitters against it (one chase of 12 out-of-zone pitches).
Indians hitters who could struggle
Travis Hafner Wakefield performs very well against left-handed power hitters. Lefties who bat three through five in the lineup hit .122 (12-for-98) against him this season. Hafner is 0-for-7 lifetime against Wakefield.
Jhonny Peralta 1-for-6 career against Wakefield with a home run, but that came against his fastball, which he uses just ten times per game on average.
Asdrubal Cabrera The rookie second baseman gets his first taste of the knuckler and Wakefield has owned hitters who bat in the No. 2 spot in the order (.191 batting average against).
Red Sox hitters who match up well vs. Byrd
Bobby Kielty Manager Terry Francona will have a similar decision to make as he did in Game 1, when he used reserve outfielder Kielty instead of J.D. Drew. That move paid off against C.C. Sabathia. Kielty is 10-for-30 (.333) with four homers in his career against Byrd. Drew is 2-for-10 (.200) with a pair of singles.
Dustin Pedroia The rookie infielder went 2-for-3 this season against Byrd and hit .500 (15-for-30) with five extra-base hits against pitchers who have similar stuff.
David Ortiz He is 8-for-26 (.308) lifetime against Byrd. Big Papi has homered off of his fastball and is 2-for-4 in scouted at-bats ending on Byrd's off-speed pitches.
Red Sox hitters who could struggle
Kevin Youkilis Has the worst career numbers of any Sox hitter against Byrd (1-for-9) and hit .203 (14-for-64) against other right-handers with low-velocity fastballs since 2006.
J.D. Drew He's 2-for-10 (.200) against Byrd in his career, but has hit him hard three times. Byrd has had success against Drew when he pounds his fastball down-and-away, and keeps his changeup down in the zone.
Eric Hinske Byrd generally does better against right-handed batters, but the left-handed Hinske is just 2-for-10 with one well-hit ball in his career against him.
This info actually changes my lean towards CLE. Regardless not playing it anyway....
The ALCS:
Last night was alot of what I expected. You had pitchers battling all night and getting out of jams. Only a 4-2 game but a couple of key hits could have put alot more runs on the board.
So what do I see tonite. First lets look at Wakefield. How does anyone gauge what to expect?? The guy was excellent until he got hurt & since then he has been fairly poor. Now he hasn't pitched in weeks(9/29) and received a cortisone shot for his back/shoulder. Since the end of the season he has thrown on the side obviously and a simulated game which lasted 5 innings and 77 pitches. Now off the top of my head I would wonder how deep he can go into a game and how many pitches he can throw?? My guess 6 innings and / or 90 pitches. His 1st two starts after injury were awful and then the next 3 were what I would categorize as average or fair. In the past mostly against my Yankees he was excellent in the postseason. He didn't face Cle in 2007 and only once in 2006. On the road this year even with a few shit starts in SEPT he was pretty good but battled poor run support. His 7-8 4.26 ERA and 1.37 WHIP lead to a 12-4 UNDER record with 4.38 runs support and 3.44 allowed. Mirabelli will catch and you can run on them 27 for 33. Last year Wake struggled on the road I think the difference this year was how unbelievable well he picthed in domes ( spec Tor and TB). Look at his grass numbers 5.63 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
For Byrd I am wondering if his two year struggle at the Jake is related to it being a QuesTec Stadium. This year at Home 95 Inn 132 Hits 63run 60 earned 15hr 17 bb 45 Ks 5.68 ERA 1.57 WHIP .328BAA and .322LHBAA. His numbers in night starts were almost as poor : 4.88 ERA 1.42 WHIP .304 BAA . Last season he was 81.1 INN 101 H 58 runs 49 earned 7hrs 20 bb 42 K 5.42 ERA 1.51 WHIP .303 BAA .369 LHBAA. Again his night stats are poor 117.2 Inn 170 H 94 runs 74 earned 5.66 ERA 1.69 WHIP .333BAA.
Bottom line is Byrd should get hit the amount of runs scored against him lies in how Boston does with RISP. Plain and simple.
My feeling is Boston ties the series tonite but to do so I think they most outscore Cle which means RUNS based on the SP. Also if you get only 5 innings of the SP we know the backend relievers are good but the middle relievers can be shaky on both sides. As I mentioned yesterday the O/U numbers for this situation point to under and the teams dont hit RHP that well in the situation either.
Play the Over 10 -115
Like it however you can slice it 1stt 5 Innings over and R,H,E over 30 as well.....BOL
******Now I see Garko is out of the lineup for Shoppach and I am rethinking my play. Hate that all that work and odd changes surface..After some thought I will stick with the OVER 10 runs. Wake is a question mark who holds a 5.73 ERA in his grass starts and before this year had struggled on the road. Big reason he didnt this year was 7 or 8 starts coming indoors of 16....
Some interesting stats: Taken from YahooSports via Insiders EDGE. This is not my work a simple cut and paste.
HITTERS
• Boston will start veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in Game 4. While the knuckleball is in a class by itself, the Indians did rank third in the major leagues with a .272 well-hit average against pitches slower than 77 mph. Franklin Gutierrez was excellent against soft off-speed pitches this year. The young outfielder batted .330 (35-for-106) against pitches slower than 77 mph.
• The man the Indians want at the plate with runners in scoring position and two outs is Kenny Lofton. The 40-year-old outfielder is hitting .750 (6-for-8) with a homerun in this situation. All six of his hits have come off of fastballs.
• Sixty percent of Paul Byrd's fastballs that have been put in play have been hit in the air. That should be good news for David Ortiz, who batted .519 when he was able to get right-handed fastballs airborne this season.
• One massive bat in the Red Sox lineup would prefer the heat to be turned up on Byrd's 85 mph fastball. Manny Ramirez batted .214 (12-for-56) against right-handed fastballs between 82 and 88 mph this season.
• If Byrd is able to keep his off-speed pitches down in the strike zone expect the Sox hitters to struggle. They ranked dead last in the majors with a .159 batting average against low, non-fastballs from righties. No one has struggled more than Coco Crisp, who was 6-for-60 with 25 strikeouts against these pitches.
PITCHERS
• Byrd threw his fastball 1786 times this season and a whopping 73 percent of them were strikes. That was the second-highest fastball strike percentage among AL starting pitchers.
• Which AL starting pitcher threw his fastball for a strike more often than Byrd? Boston's Game 4 starter, Tim Wakefield. The knuckleballer only used his fastball 366 times, but 279 were strikes, or 76 percent.
• Being around the zone is a good thing, but Byrd will be particularly successful if he can hit his spot down and away from right-handed batters:
Right-handed batters vs. Byrd's fastball in the strike zone (from pitcher's viewpoint)
Fastball Location Away Middle In
Up .313 .320 .333
Middle .302 .250 .455
Down .120 .563 .200
• Indians relievers have delivered some nasty breaking balls this postseason. Opponents are hitting only .115 (3-for-26) against their curves and sliders. Ironically, all three hits were home runs.
• Wakefield has dominated the first three hitters in opposing lineups, but has struggled against the bottom of the order:
Wakefield vs. lineup spot in 2007
Hitters 1-3 in lineup Hitters 7-9 in lineup
Batting Avg. .223 (58-for-260) .318 (71-for-223)
Slugging Pct. .304 (79-for-260) .498 (111-for-223)
ALCS GAME 4 MATCHUP NOTES
TIM WAKEFIELD (RED SOX) VS. PAUL BYRD (INDIANS)
Indians hitters who match up well vs. Wakefield
Victor Martinez The switch-hitting catcher bats from the right side against the veteran knuckleballer for good reason. Martinez is 3-for-5 with a homer against Wakefield.
Chris Gomez The backup infielder has posted huge numbers against Wakefield in the past. His .625 career slugging percentage against the Boston right-hander ranks fifth among all active players who have faced him 20 times or more.
Jason Michaels Has hit the knuck (1-for-3 against it) and has the lowest chase rate of all Tribe hitters against it (one chase of 12 out-of-zone pitches).
Indians hitters who could struggle
Travis Hafner Wakefield performs very well against left-handed power hitters. Lefties who bat three through five in the lineup hit .122 (12-for-98) against him this season. Hafner is 0-for-7 lifetime against Wakefield.
Jhonny Peralta 1-for-6 career against Wakefield with a home run, but that came against his fastball, which he uses just ten times per game on average.
Asdrubal Cabrera The rookie second baseman gets his first taste of the knuckler and Wakefield has owned hitters who bat in the No. 2 spot in the order (.191 batting average against).
Red Sox hitters who match up well vs. Byrd
Bobby Kielty Manager Terry Francona will have a similar decision to make as he did in Game 1, when he used reserve outfielder Kielty instead of J.D. Drew. That move paid off against C.C. Sabathia. Kielty is 10-for-30 (.333) with four homers in his career against Byrd. Drew is 2-for-10 (.200) with a pair of singles.
Dustin Pedroia The rookie infielder went 2-for-3 this season against Byrd and hit .500 (15-for-30) with five extra-base hits against pitchers who have similar stuff.
David Ortiz He is 8-for-26 (.308) lifetime against Byrd. Big Papi has homered off of his fastball and is 2-for-4 in scouted at-bats ending on Byrd's off-speed pitches.
Red Sox hitters who could struggle
Kevin Youkilis Has the worst career numbers of any Sox hitter against Byrd (1-for-9) and hit .203 (14-for-64) against other right-handers with low-velocity fastballs since 2006.
J.D. Drew He's 2-for-10 (.200) against Byrd in his career, but has hit him hard three times. Byrd has had success against Drew when he pounds his fastball down-and-away, and keeps his changeup down in the zone.
Eric Hinske Byrd generally does better against right-handed batters, but the left-handed Hinske is just 2-for-10 with one well-hit ball in his career against him.
This info actually changes my lean towards CLE. Regardless not playing it anyway....
Monday, October 15, 2007
Plays :
Under 10-122 tribe
Falcons +5 or better
Parlay : Under Tribe 10 , Over 9 Colorado and Falcons +5.
1st H Under 22 ATL ( 1/2 the size)
GL
Looking back at my commentary I was happy to see I had such a nice grasp on the NFL at this point or at leas in week 6. Some things that crossed my mind yesterday that I didn't follow through on was playing the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints MLs at two to one and better. Especially once the news got out Vinny was starting the line ran up to -6. How in the world is a defense like Carolina's getting 6 points versus an offense that regularly tops out at 21 points missing a featured WR?? Facing an immobile QB. Anyway...
Where does one start with tonites game????
Lets start with portraying an accurate perception of these teams.
The Falcons :
First thing of note is the loss of 2 OL recently pushing Clabo and Foster into action. Two youngsters with limited experience ( Foster facing Usi). Last year ATL held stud WR Plaxico Burress to 4 catches for 44 yards as it was the Tike barber show. Eli that nite was 17 of 30 180 yards.
What sticks out about the Falcons is they haven't really been beaten badly yet. They dont know how to make the play or plays to win late. Sure 24-3 @ Minny looks bad but it was two pick 6's to the house and a screen pass to AP that went like 67 yards for a score. They lead at Jax 7-3 to start the 4th quarter but simply couldn't put more points on the board to pull the upset. They IMO beat the panthers pretty bad but self destructed over and over again. First they get to the Car 34 on a 17yd Dunn run on 1st down and fumble on the opening drive. Chances are they put points on the board. Next possession drive it to the Car 17 and fumble the snap on the FG attempt..amazing. Still it was 10-10 at half. They had 5 possessions for 256 yards at half on offense. So much for that horrible offense and CAR is a better then average defense. We all know how up 17-10 D'Angelo Hall lost his cool and handed Car momentum and probably the game. After stopping them on 3rd down and long Hall got a taunting penalty resulting in a 1st down. Instead of a 40yd FG attempt they would later score. After slowing the CAR offense all game and knocking out Delhomme suddenly the Falcons stop anyone and wound up losing 27-20 as 4 pt dogs. Next week at Hou the broke through vs a depleted Houston team but settled for FGS. last week @ Tenny they couldn't do anything on offense vs tenny but had many chances to tie the game late.
Harrington at home 54/73 584 yards and 4Tds with zero INTS! Impressive IMO! Still just 3 of 10 from the red zone (0-2 goal to go) and 66 of 7 on FGs. On the road they are 1 of 5 from the red zone(0-2 goal to go) and 3 of 9 on FGS. They have also been sacked 15 times compared to 3 . So the offense has been fairly solid at home. Mix in the fact NYG allow an avg starting of position of the 30 yd line when kicking to Jerious Norwood and his 30.8 kick return avg.
The defense has some stars but really has performed better on the road then at home...36 pts in 3 games...away.
This has me sort of confused about this defense. Which may have Babineux and Coleman back tonight.
On the Giants side I think we have to look at them more in the last 3 or 2.5 games. Since halftime @ Washington the Giant defense has allowed 13 points in 10 quarters. They allowed a NYJ kick return though for a score as well as seeing the JET defense pickup a fumble and score. So it faces an ATL offense that attacks more t home and dinks and dunks more on the road looking at the numbers. You would have to think the OL issues should slow the ATL offense down. Not to the Numbers of its road games but probably some inbewteen area from the home / road numbers. Thinking like 17pts...Also ATL will have FG issues. I don't think they like Andersen beyond 45 yards and that leads to going on 4th down Or Koenen who is a carp shoot. Strong leg but not sure anyone knows where the football is going.
What has the Giant offense done exactly ? They rallied nicely @ Washington for 17 second half points. They still managed just 236 yards passing on 36 attempts with a TD and 2 INTs. Home vs a depleted Eagle secondary they managed 9 points on offense and Eli was 14 of 26 135 yds(td/int). Last week vs the Jets at home 13/25 186 yds 2tds/int. Take away the shootout opener Eli is 64 /116 764(191yds per) yards. 5tds/5ints. Lawrence Tynes is a wild card himself at kicker . Obviously we cant forge the giants ground game but again ATL inconsistencies. Only Minny and car have had success on the ground(66c 214yds).
Tonite seems to come down to how strong the Giants run the ball versus ATL. They have not done much in any of the past 3 1st Halves. ATL will need to move the ball consistently and convert 3rd downs while not self destructing.
Conclusion : Need more to think about it. part of me believes this game will feature two fired up defenses and offense settling for FG attempts. On the other hand we have seen how both defenses can break down and allow big plays while NY is capable of a quick score so is the Falcon offense at home IMO. Thinking about a 1st Half UNDER at the moment. How does ATL respond after the turmoil?? I think ATL is a totally different team at home and until NY shows consistency on both sides of the ball how can you feel comfortable laying chalk on the road with them?? For 3 weeks the Giants were undervalued. They were catching 3.5 @ Washington , I cant see how WASH was perceived as better then NYG. Then catching 2 or 3 at home versus Philly when Westbrook , LJ Smith , Dawkins and Shepard missed. I mean Philly is 5 or 6 points better without a huge group of its stars. Then last week both teams at home but we should realize the JETS are bad on both sides of the ball. Still needed a huge 4th quarter to beat an inferior team. I am not sure what this line should be mainly cause of the CAR game. However I would think -3 is very fair and anything above is to high. So with that I lean heavily toward ATL +4.5 / +5 but hoping its get pushed up to 6 pts at game time....you most look at MLs in these situations especially since the only two ATS covers but not SU wins by dogs were the DD games @ Arizona last year and last week @ Buffalo.
Strong lean towards ATL ++ points and 1st H under 21.5. Good Luck!
ALCS
UNDER 10 Cleveland
This play is based on what I see as an inflated number. Due mainly to games 1 and 2 plus the recent swoon from Dice K and Westbrook's start vs NYY. Both of these pitchers are not easy to figure. Yes , Dice K struggled towards the end of the season but for the most part his road numbers were better then his Fenway stats. he did stumble in his last 3 outings away but they were to teams who had seem him alot in his division. Westbrook has been better at the Jake for years now.
First thing is neither pitcher gets run support. Dice K away 4.06 for 3.98 against and Westbrook is 3.71 for and 4.07 against. Westbrook 11-3 Under at home and Dice-K 11-7 Under away even with his last away starts sailing over. Factor that it with situational both starters getting the start where they prefer to pitch. When Westbrook started at home with a total of 10 or more the UNDER was 7-1. The lone over he pitched 1.1 innings allowing 1 run.
Although both pens pitched alot in SAT's game few if any were extended. Lewis for Cle is the guy I think may need an extra day. The others should be available without hestiation for an inning maybe more. Both SP should give you 6 innings as well .
Check the stats vs RHP in the respective situations( meaning Boston away and Cle home). Bos 264 vs Cle 279 and O/U 33-48-1 Bos and Cle 41-41-1.
Both teams admit to being drained after the last game and with a travel day on Sunday I dont think they are exactly fully rested. Dice K can relax some with a postseason star under his belt.
last but not least as I said total is to high. Dice K last trip was a 1-0 game with a 9 total. That 9 probably should have been 8.5 runs . With Westbrook it should be 9.5 runs. Westbrook vs Lester was 10.5 and went Under. The difference is probably a run bewteen Lester and Dice K again making 9.5 fair. Last year Schilling was in town vs Westbrook and Schill had been poor on the road for a few years and still we saw 8.5 runs.....my feeling is 9.5 runs was fair.
Under 10-122 tribe
Falcons +5 or better
Parlay : Under Tribe 10 , Over 9 Colorado and Falcons +5.
1st H Under 22 ATL ( 1/2 the size)
GL
Looking back at my commentary I was happy to see I had such a nice grasp on the NFL at this point or at leas in week 6. Some things that crossed my mind yesterday that I didn't follow through on was playing the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints MLs at two to one and better. Especially once the news got out Vinny was starting the line ran up to -6. How in the world is a defense like Carolina's getting 6 points versus an offense that regularly tops out at 21 points missing a featured WR?? Facing an immobile QB. Anyway...
Where does one start with tonites game????
Lets start with portraying an accurate perception of these teams.
The Falcons :
First thing of note is the loss of 2 OL recently pushing Clabo and Foster into action. Two youngsters with limited experience ( Foster facing Usi). Last year ATL held stud WR Plaxico Burress to 4 catches for 44 yards as it was the Tike barber show. Eli that nite was 17 of 30 180 yards.
What sticks out about the Falcons is they haven't really been beaten badly yet. They dont know how to make the play or plays to win late. Sure 24-3 @ Minny looks bad but it was two pick 6's to the house and a screen pass to AP that went like 67 yards for a score. They lead at Jax 7-3 to start the 4th quarter but simply couldn't put more points on the board to pull the upset. They IMO beat the panthers pretty bad but self destructed over and over again. First they get to the Car 34 on a 17yd Dunn run on 1st down and fumble on the opening drive. Chances are they put points on the board. Next possession drive it to the Car 17 and fumble the snap on the FG attempt..amazing. Still it was 10-10 at half. They had 5 possessions for 256 yards at half on offense. So much for that horrible offense and CAR is a better then average defense. We all know how up 17-10 D'Angelo Hall lost his cool and handed Car momentum and probably the game. After stopping them on 3rd down and long Hall got a taunting penalty resulting in a 1st down. Instead of a 40yd FG attempt they would later score. After slowing the CAR offense all game and knocking out Delhomme suddenly the Falcons stop anyone and wound up losing 27-20 as 4 pt dogs. Next week at Hou the broke through vs a depleted Houston team but settled for FGS. last week @ Tenny they couldn't do anything on offense vs tenny but had many chances to tie the game late.
Harrington at home 54/73 584 yards and 4Tds with zero INTS! Impressive IMO! Still just 3 of 10 from the red zone (0-2 goal to go) and 66 of 7 on FGs. On the road they are 1 of 5 from the red zone(0-2 goal to go) and 3 of 9 on FGS. They have also been sacked 15 times compared to 3 . So the offense has been fairly solid at home. Mix in the fact NYG allow an avg starting of position of the 30 yd line when kicking to Jerious Norwood and his 30.8 kick return avg.
The defense has some stars but really has performed better on the road then at home...36 pts in 3 games...away.
This has me sort of confused about this defense. Which may have Babineux and Coleman back tonight.
On the Giants side I think we have to look at them more in the last 3 or 2.5 games. Since halftime @ Washington the Giant defense has allowed 13 points in 10 quarters. They allowed a NYJ kick return though for a score as well as seeing the JET defense pickup a fumble and score. So it faces an ATL offense that attacks more t home and dinks and dunks more on the road looking at the numbers. You would have to think the OL issues should slow the ATL offense down. Not to the Numbers of its road games but probably some inbewteen area from the home / road numbers. Thinking like 17pts...Also ATL will have FG issues. I don't think they like Andersen beyond 45 yards and that leads to going on 4th down Or Koenen who is a carp shoot. Strong leg but not sure anyone knows where the football is going.
What has the Giant offense done exactly ? They rallied nicely @ Washington for 17 second half points. They still managed just 236 yards passing on 36 attempts with a TD and 2 INTs. Home vs a depleted Eagle secondary they managed 9 points on offense and Eli was 14 of 26 135 yds(td/int). Last week vs the Jets at home 13/25 186 yds 2tds/int. Take away the shootout opener Eli is 64 /116 764(191yds per) yards. 5tds/5ints. Lawrence Tynes is a wild card himself at kicker . Obviously we cant forge the giants ground game but again ATL inconsistencies. Only Minny and car have had success on the ground(66c 214yds).
Tonite seems to come down to how strong the Giants run the ball versus ATL. They have not done much in any of the past 3 1st Halves. ATL will need to move the ball consistently and convert 3rd downs while not self destructing.
Conclusion : Need more to think about it. part of me believes this game will feature two fired up defenses and offense settling for FG attempts. On the other hand we have seen how both defenses can break down and allow big plays while NY is capable of a quick score so is the Falcon offense at home IMO. Thinking about a 1st Half UNDER at the moment. How does ATL respond after the turmoil?? I think ATL is a totally different team at home and until NY shows consistency on both sides of the ball how can you feel comfortable laying chalk on the road with them?? For 3 weeks the Giants were undervalued. They were catching 3.5 @ Washington , I cant see how WASH was perceived as better then NYG. Then catching 2 or 3 at home versus Philly when Westbrook , LJ Smith , Dawkins and Shepard missed. I mean Philly is 5 or 6 points better without a huge group of its stars. Then last week both teams at home but we should realize the JETS are bad on both sides of the ball. Still needed a huge 4th quarter to beat an inferior team. I am not sure what this line should be mainly cause of the CAR game. However I would think -3 is very fair and anything above is to high. So with that I lean heavily toward ATL +4.5 / +5 but hoping its get pushed up to 6 pts at game time....you most look at MLs in these situations especially since the only two ATS covers but not SU wins by dogs were the DD games @ Arizona last year and last week @ Buffalo.
Strong lean towards ATL ++ points and 1st H under 21.5. Good Luck!
ALCS
UNDER 10 Cleveland
This play is based on what I see as an inflated number. Due mainly to games 1 and 2 plus the recent swoon from Dice K and Westbrook's start vs NYY. Both of these pitchers are not easy to figure. Yes , Dice K struggled towards the end of the season but for the most part his road numbers were better then his Fenway stats. he did stumble in his last 3 outings away but they were to teams who had seem him alot in his division. Westbrook has been better at the Jake for years now.
First thing is neither pitcher gets run support. Dice K away 4.06 for 3.98 against and Westbrook is 3.71 for and 4.07 against. Westbrook 11-3 Under at home and Dice-K 11-7 Under away even with his last away starts sailing over. Factor that it with situational both starters getting the start where they prefer to pitch. When Westbrook started at home with a total of 10 or more the UNDER was 7-1. The lone over he pitched 1.1 innings allowing 1 run.
Although both pens pitched alot in SAT's game few if any were extended. Lewis for Cle is the guy I think may need an extra day. The others should be available without hestiation for an inning maybe more. Both SP should give you 6 innings as well .
Check the stats vs RHP in the respective situations( meaning Boston away and Cle home). Bos 264 vs Cle 279 and O/U 33-48-1 Bos and Cle 41-41-1.
Both teams admit to being drained after the last game and with a travel day on Sunday I dont think they are exactly fully rested. Dice K can relax some with a postseason star under his belt.
last but not least as I said total is to high. Dice K last trip was a 1-0 game with a 9 total. That 9 probably should have been 8.5 runs . With Westbrook it should be 9.5 runs. Westbrook vs Lester was 10.5 and went Under. The difference is probably a run bewteen Lester and Dice K again making 9.5 fair. Last year Schilling was in town vs Westbrook and Schill had been poor on the road for a few years and still we saw 8.5 runs.....my feeling is 9.5 runs was fair.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Good morning or afternoon depending where you are.
Some quick observations :
1- Even though I lean towards TB I do NOT see the Titans as a sucker play or so called trap play. I thought PK was fair but as I mentioned TB had been given quite some respect lately by the linesmakers. There isnt as many people running to pund Tenny at +3...however they are baiting TB money now with them at -1. Seems they did that with Cincy as well...
2- If I had to rank my plays in terms of strength it would be Dallas , KC , Jax , then three way tie bewteen Minny , Miami and Balt . The other play I lean heavy towards is GB -2.5 the rest are just basic leans.
3- Well JAgs go down the field on a big play . They settle for a short FG attempt . make it but a face mask penalty negates it. On the rekick from 41yds they miss. Unfortunately for me this is a huge negative for my Jax plays. I can tell you its almost the end of the game when a team marches down the field on its opening possession and fails to put any points on the board whenits a gimme....Death notice and jags will drive down teh field and probably score....watch
4- No sooner do I hit submit thats it 10-0...Jags are done.....trust me folks....
5- I spoke to soon. We are alive still. Apparently they fumbled it at the 1 out of teh end zone for a touchback. That was a miracle to stall the huge Houston momentum....
Some quick observations :
1- Even though I lean towards TB I do NOT see the Titans as a sucker play or so called trap play. I thought PK was fair but as I mentioned TB had been given quite some respect lately by the linesmakers. There isnt as many people running to pund Tenny at +3...however they are baiting TB money now with them at -1. Seems they did that with Cincy as well...
2- If I had to rank my plays in terms of strength it would be Dallas , KC , Jax , then three way tie bewteen Minny , Miami and Balt . The other play I lean heavy towards is GB -2.5 the rest are just basic leans.
3- Well JAgs go down the field on a big play . They settle for a short FG attempt . make it but a face mask penalty negates it. On the rekick from 41yds they miss. Unfortunately for me this is a huge negative for my Jax plays. I can tell you its almost the end of the game when a team marches down the field on its opening possession and fails to put any points on the board whenits a gimme....Death notice and jags will drive down teh field and probably score....watch
4- No sooner do I hit submit thats it 10-0...Jags are done.....trust me folks....
5- I spoke to soon. We are alive still. Apparently they fumbled it at the 1 out of teh end zone for a touchback. That was a miracle to stall the huge Houston momentum....
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