Yesterday I had computer issues and couldnt really update my NFLthoughts and play card. On the only two posted plays I felt like I had two terribe beats. First in Tenn after much evalutaion I had flip flopped picks to the Titans simply believing ATL could not score enough. I was correct about that. All 13 pts were off turnovers ( and a fake punt) . However Tenny offense and VY were almost as bad and a late Bironas MISSED 45/46 yard FG sealed the deal. Didnt I say the Falcons ONLY chance here was a 4-7 loss and that was a SLIM hope?? That loss was my biggest side and killed a 4 team parlay ( Wash , Carolina and Zona ML). Then NYY which I had at +4 on the buy gives the game away with two HORRIBLE Pennington picks , the last a pick 6 that cost me the PUSH. Shit happens I ran the table basically after the 1 PM chaos. Had th eOver 43 Miami and that was FG city and Browns +17 pushes on a defensive score with 15 seconds to play....thats the NFL. What did I say yesterday...No two weeks are alike or Trent Dilfer said it. At least the YANKEES showed a pulse....make a value play IMO on the Yanks to win the World Series should be about 5 to 1 odds now..I have many reason why I will discuss that later on...


Buffalo Bills +10.5

One thing I am quite sure of the two most overrated teams in the NFL are the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys. The funny thing about the Patriots is after all this time they simple are hardly ever huge public plays. I felt the 16.5 line was fair yesterday but knew the move down to 15.5 meant trouble. Lets get into why I think this. How is NE overrated. First look at there opponents. We know now that the Jets are a mess . They cruised and why would anyone at this point not expect the PATS to be a well oiled machine. Come on now NE will not beat itself even with role players taking up for injured stars. We learned Randy Moss was back. The second game we learned that SD game 1 troubles versus CHI were no fluke. They impressively smoked SD but this is a team playing with a new head coach in his second game. Nice win but great spot for NE. The Bills bewteen defensive injuries and offensive issues showed @ Pitt and @ NE just how competitive they would be versus good defenses on the road. The Bengals...you cant win in the NFL when your entire linebacking core is decimated. Think they dressed 4 linebackers and two were gone by the end of quarter 1. Rudi Johnson loss was overrated cause I think Keny Watson is a wash basically. What people dont see beynd the two stud WRs is this team hasabsolutely nothing. They dont have a TE who can contribute in the passing game or a 3rd WR. So your playing one of the best OL and you have no linebackers?? Wasnt hard to think Cincy had to pick a poison...sell out to stop the run or the pass. Either way eventually NE would adjust and attack. Which is exactly what happened. With all the Moss hype , Bengals defended the pass when NE came out throwing. Once it was clear what was going on they just feed Sammy Morris and started moving the chains. When Cincy has the ball you basically have to cover the two star WRS and thats it. Obviously there studs and you cant do it every down but all you need to do is force them into situations where Cincy has to make plays to move the chains and the percentages are just not in there favor. The loss of Chris Henry is killing them. This week. Browns moved the ball but Anderson threw some early picks. No Jamal Lewis turned the game. The Browns should have lead 7-3. The NFL is easy to figure....follow the momentum. Cle plays great DEF
holds NE to 3 after 1st goal at the 3 yd line. Not suprisingly CLE drives it down to the NE 1 on the immediate possession.Lewis is out and only try 1 time on 3 downs to run it. With Anderson being picked off on third down.....HUGE momentum switch to the PATS. Backed up Cle holds NE and they punt. Next Anderson pass picked off again!! Pats ball at the 32 Yd of Cle next NE pass.....TD!!! A 7-3 Brown lead turns into 10-0 NE. Again be realistic you cant play from behind with NE. Little while later again CLE plays great defense to hold NE to a FG when 1st and goal. So 13-0 mid 2nd quarter. Again though Anderson throws a pick !! Setting up NE with a short field. Soon thereafter 20-0. My point here is CLE played well enough on defense that NE was unable to drive the length of the field to get points. Cle mistakes turned into NE TDS. So its not NE playing so well its the opponent playing so poorly. That in some ways is a factor of NE defense but not entirely.Third quarter not much doing as Cle gets 3 on the board. To start the 4th Cle is driving and scores again. Of course up 20-0 in some ways NE is on cruise control. Now though 20-10 NE wakes up and does what they couldnt do all game and that drive the field for a TD. Now after some punts Cle gets a short field and scores another TD 27-17. What this shows is with good field position you can score on NE defense IMO. Teams were 6 for 6 in the red zones scoring TDS before this game. NE get sthe ball and moves again inside the 10 yd line for 1st goal but again Cle turns them away. Electing for obvious reasons to go for it on 4th down NE puts nothing on the board. Starting atthe Cle 4 with 42 seconds left Cle completes a pass but they fumble and Gay just scoops it up and walks in for the TD. If thats not one of the worst backdoor covers in history I dont know what is. Cle even managed to get to NE 10 yd line after that but couldnt score.

The point is NE didnt dominant them here. They did what NE always does and didnt beat themeselves instead waiting for there opponent to self destruct. It easily could have been CLE 7-6 at HALFTIME....and again @ Cincy the Bengals had no chance with the injuries and current state of the team.

Dallas is very similiar. Look at the schedule . The Rams are banged up in the secondary and on offense. Yet the game should have been 7-7 at half. Romo pulled that run out of his ass and the late TD made it 14-7. Whats also missed is that STL missed a 28 yd FG and right thereafter thats when DAL scored its TD. Again a MOMENTUM switch. You just cant have these mistakes and expect to compete in hostile road enviroments. The Rams is secondary is actually in much worse shape then Buffalos. They had no answer for Crayton who scored big twice and made it 28-17. However with 1st and goal the Rams fluttered and Bulger was picked..in the end zone. Instead of 28-14 late 3rd quarter and still somewhat competitive game the INT turns nto 7 more for Dallas. Game over. Not as impressive as the misleading outcome. Previously the traveled to Chi and beat a Bear team who had no offense and benched the QB right after the game. It looks impressive cause what CHI did last year but reality is Chi was in turmoil. The feeling is Dallas tends to struggle on grass. Look at how bad Miami is and the Dolphins lead in the 3rd quarter!! They needed a 4th down 4th quarte TD to seal the win !Dallas lead 10-6 at halftime and scored on the 1st possession after half to lead 13-10. Then midway through the third quarter a huge Crayton punt return gave Dal a short field and eventual TD to lead 17-13 with about 5 to play third quarter. Then Miami started to shot themselves in the foot so to speak and UNRAVEL. Green throws an INT that leads to a FG now 20-13. See though momentum shifts lead to points though. Miami gets the ball moves into the 50 and then fumbles leading to another FG 23-13 11min to play. Exchange punts and Miami again moves to the 50 before another INT!So 23-13 with 4 to play 4th and 5 at MIA 34 then TO ices with a TD catch with Miami stacked at the line. Romeo only 14 of 29 and Julius Jones struggled. Again another win where the boxscore is misleading. The opener was nothing but a shootout they won. The best game DAL has played is @ Chi and that to is misleading. A quote...Tony Romo looked desperate early on, scrambling, rushing throws and doing all he could to avoid the Chicago defense. The only thing he didn't do was go away. This was 3-3 game at half and Dal just 4 of 13 on third down. Simply put Dal and NE will not beat themselves. Just like the Yankees in baseball though give them that 4th out and they will pile it on you in a hurry.

So thats my rant about these teams being OVERRATED.

Tonite I think Buffalo is a tough venue. Great crazy home crowd getting a MNF game. Dallas having to travel for the third time in 4 weeks to play in cool and crisp Buffalo. Oh and that game next week vs NE. Which I think two cocky guys TO and Romo are definetly looking past Buffalo to NE..TO was chirping about NE in week 2 !!!! I think even with the injuries Buff secondary with Whitner and McGee back is better then the makeshift dbs they saw @ Miami and versus StL. Thats my opinion. Jones isnt running the ball great but is still getting the ball. A team like Buf will be tough on special teams and Jauron is gonna play the game slow to keep his team in it. Thats what is good about Jauron. He doesnt mind small ball. Edwars will be a little nervous probably in his MNF debut but that should disappear quickly. Edwards in the 1st H had his offense in NYJ territory in 3 of the 4 possessions. a Robert Royal fumble killed one drive , a 1st down sack putting them in 2nd and 17 killed the second opportunity and the last one was killed by a Edwards INT. Then 1st possession after the half Buffalo gets it right and drives for a TD. After a NYJ score they get it back and drive again into NYJ territory and score three more. Making it 5 of 6 possessions in NYJ territory(inside the NYJ 40). Next Buff possession again he drives them and scores again 17-7!! With 6 consecutive drives into opposing territory. The last possession was up 17-14 and all they did was try to run clock and pick up a 1st down. They didnt but this kid Edwards moved the ball on 6 straight drives giving Buffalo a chance. Dallas will be w/o Anthony Henry and Newman is probably still less then 100% so we know you can move the ball on Dal through the air. The kid Lynch can run the ball.

I look for Buffalo to move the chains and keep it up out Dal hands. Dont forget Lee Evans is still a deep threat and RB Lynch still a homerun threat when he touches it. The key is Buff not shooting themselves in the foot. When they have a chance to score get those points on the board and do there best to limit big plays on offense for Dal and keep them to 3 instead of 7. Buff has shown in 2 home games they are gonna be in the game and Dal has shown in both road games they take a HALF to wakeup ( 3-3 @ chi , lead 10-6 @ Miami). I really dont see how Buff is much worse if at all then Miami. Who needed a 47 Folk FG and 4th& 5 TD to put the Phins away (20-13 atthe time). After Miami gave Dal the game. Buffalo had allowed 15 pts per at home on 400yards...bend dont break defense for sure. The offense looks to have a chance to move the ball with Edwards not at the helm.

Dallas went from -3 @ Miami to -10 or more @ Buffalo...perception has gotten way ahead of these teams and that is how value is created.....I actually think since focus could be an issue for Dal that Buffalo has a minor chance to win this game outright.....Dallas got 9 turnovers in Miami and Chi thats ridiculous. I think the line should be closer to -6 or -7 here. As for the total the 1st H under is extremely inviting...I'll be back with more on that. I dont think its that unbelievable that BUF wins this game and then a s asmall hoe dof Dallas beats NE next week. I think if Dal wins but doesnt really cover the line will be NE -1.5 if they lose SU +3 and if they win convincingly PK to Dal -1.5 . Plus I have a Yankee game to talk about. Good Luck

Side Note : The fact that Buffalo hasnt played on MNF in 14 years has to be a positive factor . As well as the Everett situation .


Yankees
Game #4 ALDS

One thing is if you dont know that sinkerballers are better tired then on long rest you should be studying the game abit more. So I dont feel the need to discuss that angle. I will say though Torre was very foolish to not let Wang pitch at some point at the end of the reg season. The reason why he ucked on the road in Game 1 was cause he was on to long rest.

As I mentioned earlier I think taking a stab at the Yankees to win the World Series is an excellent value play here. First you should get somewhere around 5-1. Second is if NY wins tonite they have all the momentum even going back to Cle. Why ? Cle will be pressured not to choke. However Pettitte has already shown he is throwing well and can pitch @ the jake. On the flip Sabathis didnt look so sharp vs NYY and you would have to give Pettitte the edge in that matchup IMO. So winning this series gives us Colorado Rockies like momentum. Then we face Boston on Friday I believe. Beckett will be on a ton of rest but we have handled Beckett fairly well recently. Bos will have lost all there momentum due to the time off and NYY will be playing with. Boston will have the better setup SP wise on paper but I'll take Hughes in Game 1.

Tonite a few things stick out. Naturally the price is one. There were few instances that Wang was below -180 at home. The low was early vs Wakefield laying -150. Wang was injured out of Spring Training so it probably took hima month to get right. Those early season starts dont carry much weight with me. This guy was -170 late in the season vs Roy Halladay and laid heavy wood when facing quality teams and SP .

We know the Yanks are loaded with LHB and are 75-50 vs RHP this year. Byrd despite good stats on the road has allowed LHB to hit 322 and 369 the past 2 years. I think his new found splitter has helped some but still he has allowed 259 hits past 2 years to LHB. The past 2 season in NITE starts he is . 304BAA , 4.88 ERA and .333 BAA and 5.66 ERA. Tonite's lineup is 35/116 career off him and Mientkiewcz was 5/8 last season in KC.

Wang was 10-4 2.75 ERA at home this year , 11-3 3.03 ERA last year an 13-2 and 12-3 at nite in these seasons.Batters only hit 235 off him at the Stadium.

Now the three day situation isnt as new as its made out to be. In 2005 he started(77pitches) and then 3 days later in May came in relief to face Bos. His results were okay 4 2/3 innings 6 hits 2runs. This also was his 1st career relief appearance. The next situation was 2006. On 6/1 he started threw 73 pitches in a subpar outing then on 6/3 he came into close a game and went 2/3 of inning (15pitches) for the save. Then 6/6 he went on to start and be solid lasting 109 pitches. So the concern is pretty alleviated IMO especially when Wang is a sinkerballer. In 11 of his last 14 at Home the opponents have managed 3 runs or less for the game.

Now the Yanks have some momentum and a quick 1-2-3 inning in the Top of the 1st would be awesome. Byrd last 2 innings allowing 7 runs in his lone 2007 start vs NY. He was hit hard his last 3 starts and really his last 5 were below average. I expect Byrd to be prepared butsits been awhile since he started. Long rest has been a plus for him before in his career. I dont think Cle is hitting all that well at all and face a tough SP who should go 6 maybe even 7 or 8 innings depending on pitch count. I have to say I was disgustedto see Joba in the 7 yesterday cause I wanted him fresh as possible. Hughes only threw 60 something pitches. If you get Joba and Mo for the 8th and 9 you have to pray for Wang to go 7 innings cause I dont know who we use maybe Mussina probably Vizcaino though...

last thing is the total first it was 9.5 last nite. Wang is a huge upgrade over Clemens while Byrd is a slight downgrade over Westbrook who had pitched so well away of late. Tonite you will see 10 maybe 10.5 total. I think it was lucky to see 12 runs last nite and go over. On the road Cle hits 256 compared to NYY 306 vs RHP. Tribe are 5-21 past 26 trips to NYY.The yanks 3 games with Culbreth behind the dish this season were all low scoring UNDERS.

Yankees -1.5 Runs -130 Under 10 +115. Of note Wang when allowing 5 + earned runs is 11-3 in his next start with all 3 losses well pitched outings he allowed 3runs or less...