Well Marshall really shot themselves in the foot last nite. Absolutely awful gameplanning in the 1st Half with the playing call in the 1st quarter and the questionable decision to not run the ball with 3 minutes remaining till hbalf. Then second half fumbles inside the twenty and on the FG cost them an easy SU win. They arent very good but Mem did exactly what I thought they would realy stopping Mem on just 1 drive over the final 3 quarters...ML lost , +3 pushed and +3.5 won..depending on how u played it. The 1st H was low scoring and at 28 created nice value in 2nd H over.

Early baseball playoffs...short on time at the moment...

One thing overlooked is Jeff Francis solid numbers in day starts most of which have been in Aug and Sept. he stunk up twice vs Philly but they were nite starts. Not an excuse but not entirely the same situation IMO. Since his last bad outing at Philly he has been solid 3 straight. I dont think COL pen is that worn out as most pitchers went 1 inning with low pitch counts.

The Rocks could be drained and really didnt hit the SD pen till Hoffmann came in. Funny when you look at Peavy and Hoffmann as the two sure things from SD. Anyway bot teams lackluster numbers vs LHP. Rocks only 252 away and have never seen Hamels off a 116 pitch dominant outing. High pitch count is concerning but he says he is okay. Only 233 last 10 but no LH starters in that mix. Philly 272 at home vs LHP and 212 last 10 struggling vs Matt Chico recently.

Francis in road day starts allowed 8 runs in 36 2/3 innings spanning 5 starts. So the pen may not be such a concern anyway.

Hamels some minor issues in day starts in his early career. Just not sure 2 April home starts carry much weight as well as 1st start after the break. TGhe only other home day start was recently vs Wash which was solid and nats do hit LHP fairly well. He is 10-3 3.22 ERA in 17 starts on regular rest. Where Francis is 12-5 in 22 starts with a 3.62 ERA on regular rest. Long rest he was a 5.74 ERA and 314 BAA..check cbssportsline for the complete breakdown.

Anyway I prefer the Under looking for 9.5 but will take 9 especially at even. I feel 8.5 is the fair total here. Also see value in Col +1.5 runs and Under 1st 5 innings.....

Good Luck be back later!!


Tough matchup @ Fenway. I have this line much closer to -130 though. My concern about making this a value play is that Matthews is OUT hurting the LAA defense. Vlad is banged up relegated to DH which puts a banged up Figgins in RF. My point is the inflated line due to health issues like what we saw when the Pats traveled to Cincy on Monday?? Hoping its the perception of Lackey @ Fenway.

Sure Boston has the better lineup and Lackey has issues @ Fenway. Heres my deal though look at Lackeys numbers 2005 -2007 only. Basically cause that is the guy toeing the rubber tonite. Both SP have a long ago history of being money pitchers in the playoffs. The stats still arent great BUT take out Lackeys last outing which came after a nite game @ Tor and was a 1PM start in Fenway. Plus Lackeys day splits not so sharp this season. His other stats are serviceable like 6 inn 3 run types.

Lackey is 11-5( team 12-5) 2.73ERA away and 15-5 (17-5)2.55ERA at nite. Beckett is 9-5 (10-7) 4.17 ERA and 11-6(11-8) 3.71 ERA at nite . Really you want Beckett in the day on the road cause thats where his numbers are strongest. Also there is a misconception out there that Manny and Papi OWN Lackey. Its again not the past 3 seasons...they hit him well but Manny 4/12 and Papi 5/13 with I think 1 Hr combined isnt all that alarming....Lowell only 3/12 lifetime.

So played at +160 think +150 or better is very nice value. The total is a headache. I do think UNDER @ 9 looks tempting. What scares me is both guys allow enough hits where 1 mistake could be 3 runs. Both guys have proven to be bulls in the postseason and on the season.So leaning towards that UNDER but not sure...GL


Still thinking about that late game in Zona . Did play the Cubbies to win the series though based on Zambrano , Hill and Lilly with a solid pen outside of closer Dempster. Easily the better lineup on paper.

The CFB game. Lets see 3rd string QB who is a redshirt freshman making his 1st start. Oh and the line didnt budge...I have to think that normally that would call for a line adjustment. Its easy to see Fletcher running wild on Rice and the Eagle defense stepping up after last week. So if I had to guess I would say SoMiss wins 38-14. Based mainly on Rice being awful on the road facing an angry defense. Oh and the linesmakers telling you while we havent seen M.Young play we are confident enough to hold the line...simple logic.....GL


Well the value play on LAA was a sucker bet plain and simple. Rarely do I feel fooled when looking at a game. Like I mentioned earlier was the inflated line a bi-product of way to much Boston love OR a sign of just how banged up LAA is and how flat they would be. We now know the answer. Just very disappointed I didnt play the UNDER at 9 runs. Even liking LAA there only shot at winning was a low scoring game.

As for the CFB game so far I am clueless there it seems. Funny I guess. The line most of held 21 cause Reeves played!! Well that logical analysis was thrown out the window quickly. The Eagles look flat from what I have seen . You almost have to entertain a 2nd H over here.

The last order of business is although I like Chicago the line has been pounded to the point where all the value is sucked out of them. I dont like Chi at +115 dont exactly like Arizona but dont like the price here. What I did was play the late UNDER. You look at Zambrano away and his numbers are so solid along with his nite data. Webb has been tough at home and sports a very inexperienced postseason lineup facing a pitcher they really havent ever faced . Who happens to be inconsistent but Cy worthy on many nites. Webb is a former Cy Young winner. Both SP hold rHB to a 200baa......late nite UNDER 7.5 Runs....welcome to the playoffs. GL

After further review I actually think Southern Miss may be done here. No idea what to take 2nd H and would only lean UNDER and Rice +8.5...GL