Day 1 of the 2007 MLB playoffs went largely as I had expected. No real suprises IMO.

Today we start with Col @ Philly once again. Alot being made of the Phillies displeasure with the time slot they have been given due to the shadows. The funny thing is Philly has played a few 3 PM day games at home this year and put some runs up if I recall correctly. I do think its in there head some but really someone should reveal the proper data to them. It may be harder to see the ball but there performance hasnt been really affected that much.

One thing I see is both pitchers dont tend to go deep in games . Kendrick tends to be the 90 pitch count area while Morales is more like 80. Not sure if they will be extended beyond that but if it is notthen by the top of the 7th both pens should be involved. Kendrick has been hit in his 2 starts vs COL. while Morales blanked Philly through 5 @ Citizens. One note with Morales is team seeing him a 2nd time have hit him harder then the first. See SFG and LAD who had a fairly different lineup. So I think that maybe some of his success is due to people not getting a look at him. Philly has seen him and I expect him to get hit today. Though Ed Hickox tends to be an UNDER umpire this year the one thing I see is ONLY 10 of his 31 starts had totals of 10 to 11 runs. Showing me he had a lot of good SP matchups evidenced by his 5.5 runs per game allowed by starters when he is calling strikes. Previous season he lends to be biased towards overs and was 19-11 OVER with 10.30 ++ runs per game.

Two young SP with somewhat overworked bullpens should lead to runs being scored today. Yesterday we saw a bunch of HRS but they were solo shots. The ball will carry.


So while I like Philly here I think Over 10 runs -120 presents more value. Thats my initial play for today. Looking at the UNDER @ Cleveland if I can get 9 runs ....GL


In the evening game we travel to the JAKE as Wang squares off against Sabathia. While the NYY have struggled all season on the road vs LHP they have improved of late. However IMO they still do not hit quality LHP that well and will have 5 true LHB in the lineup. While AROD has good carer numbers vs CC they came years ago. Sabathia has rounded into the stud we thought he would be when he arrived on the scene. This year Arods 275 vs LHP doesnt look imposing. Check those away games vs Bedard , Kazmir , Francis , etc and see not many runs scored my us. Its really not a new thing since we basically switched from Sheff to Abreu in RF mid season 2006.

One thing under the radar will be the numebrs Wang sports when he starts with more then regular reat ( more then 5 days). In 10 starts this season he he is 7-1 3.11 ERA with a 257 BAA. Last year he was 6-1 2.70 ERA in 9 starts with a 244 BAA. Not to forget are his excellent numebrs under the lights : 25-5 3.50 ERA past 2 years!!!

Really we all know how good both guys can be. Mix in the fact that Cle didnt come into the series on fire offensively it should help Wang even more. NYY did come in red hot offensively but facing a different class of pitcher. Both guys have strong options in the pen here with Jo Bo being the exception closing it for Cle. I prefer the NYY here but not sure about price. If for some reason NYY went to even money or better I might bite. Till the UNDER 9 is my play here.....GL


So pissed at myself for missing out on the fact that Wang had NOT pitched since 9/26 . Thats why to much for a sinkerballer even one who throws 95 MPH....Not saying I owuld have played the OVER but I would have laid off the UNDER ofr sure.....details, details , details....my bad!!

Staying away from the late game I thought the line should have been chi -120 / 8.5 hich is basicaly where it is. So I passed as I missed out on the value at Under 9 and Ari +130 or better. Anyway went with Over 28 or 28.5 in the South Carolin game. A few silly mistakes have cost the teams points. The fumble going in on the 1 , the bad Woodson toss INT in the end zone , couple a short FGs. Woodson got his bell rung but I believe he is okay to big a stage to not try and seize the moment IMO. We could see OT. Alot of things aid an over here. My belief was 1st H under 28.5 and then 2nd H over . To bad I didnt play that way....GL