Saturday Nite Thoughts -

Looking back on Friday what bad luck as NO blows a 25 point lead after 1 , Nets blow a 10 pt lead at half and Charlotte and Orlando blow small halftime leads and get blownout in the 2nd H...believe those were my only losses....but a negative nite cause of the size...basically washed out Thursdays gains.

Hawks -3-102 (15x) still line watching though ML now -140 (lean under 202)

This is definetly something I try to figure out the way to play cheapest. We have a HOT Hawks team who just continues to impress. They return home where they really outplayed Orlando and NYK already. What I love here is the fact its two situational fades butting heads for Seattle. First the Sonics are playing there 4th ROAD game in 5 nites and also 5th game in 7 days as they hosted LAL on Sunday. Starting on Tuesday they played in Miami , followed by a game in Orl on Wed and tonitee in Charlotte where they needed a huge 2nd H comeback to take command. Both Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis played about 40 minutes and all 5 starters logged 30 +. ATL had some key players play big minutes namely Joe Johnson but they also had a few days rest before this game. Its weird seeing ATL as a favorite but they were -4.5 when theyhosted SEA last year though they lost SU.

Thoughts-
Over 195 -110 Boston (4x)
-Thought Cle should be -8.5 so no play

Under 197 -109 Spurs (3x)
-Like SA -13 but no play yet

Minny -4 .5 -112 (3x)
- Lean to the Un 187.5 but staying off

Over 196.5 -114 Utah / Milw (6x)
-Milw has shown heart past 2 games with late comebacks but staing off a side cause the Bucks are desperate

Over 187 -109 Chi (3x)
-staying away from a side like the pacers but strange move to +7...

Suns -10-105 (7x)
-Suns finally get a team with offensive issues and they should not have a late collapse here. playing much better then the record...

Pistons +3.5 -104 (3x) & oV 196.5 -110 (3X)

good luck

Friday NBA Thoughts

Solid nite going 3-1 but lost the Suns Under...and talked myslef out of the Cavs. If I had some balls I would have pounded Over Cavs 2nd H and GS 2nd H yesterday.

Plays & Leans -

Charlotte Bobcats +1 -106 (7x) L
Raptors -4 -113 (6x) & -3.5 -105 (3x)L
Over 199.5 ATL -115 & Under 203 -110 (5x middle) xxxxx
Magic +5 -120 (3x) ML +165(1x)( now +5 +100 & +195) L
Ov 207.5 -110 Wiz (3x) W
Denver +3 -108 (6x) & ML +134 (1x) W
Over 206 -107 Philly (4x) W
Over 196 -110 Utah (4x) W
NJ -4 -111(6x) L
New York Knicks +10.5 -110 (8x) W
New Orleans ML -133 (6x) L (wrong score reported...how the fuck do you blow a 25 pt lead?)
Pistons +5 -107 (4x) W

ML parlay Wiz -226 , Tor -171 and Utah -160 (1x)
Then (2x each) Wiz with Tor and Wiz with Utah

2nd H
Raptors -4.5 -102 (3x) L
Over 104 +104 Tor (2x) W(high line...seems shady like the 2nd q pace )
NYK +3.5 -111(3x) W

CBB (1-2 YTD) What was I thinking?
Hawaii +8 -108 (3x) L
East Wash +10-110 (4x)L

Thoughts -
~ Atl @ Tor - Hawks win 3 straight pull off an upset due IMO to Cle just losing focus (up 10 with 9 to play). Cavs were miserable in the 2nd H from the FT line and with the chance to 'ice' the game King James missed a FT to extend to three with seconds remaining, instead he missed and Lue hit a floater in the lane for OT. The Hawks did a nice job of beating barely .00 type teams in Orl & NYK in ATL. They lost in Philly which Tor just beat and got he gift win in Cleveland. So to me alot of fuss over a smoewhat flukish win keeps this line soft...Philly was -3.5 here the other nite and would say that Philly is a good 3 or 4 pts stronger then ATL on a neutral court...which leads me to believe this should be closer to -5.5 . AT first glance the OVER made sense but looking at how many shots ATL opponents are avg it will take a tremendous effort fg% wise to get this in the 200's. Last year when ATL played no defense it was possible but this year seems different...so actaully lean to the UNDER @ 201 or better. So gonna middle the total..

~ Orl @ Ind - I really dont have a great feel for this game. However I thought with O'Neal at less the 100% , Granger and Tinsly struggling I think Orlando can hang with them tonite despite there struggles last year vs Indy.

~ Milw @ Wash - Take away the opener versus Det and IMO Milwauke has played poorly. The last game at home versus Houston wasnt nearly as close as the final indicates. I give MILW credit for the 4th Q comeback but what happened the other 3 quarters...appeared that Hosuton just got sloppy with the ball. Otherwise MILW was smoked at Toronto and Chicago. Arenas is on fire at the moment and Ilook for that to continue. Wiz have scored 124 and 117 at home...

~ Den@ Philly - The Nuggets keep finding new ways to lose. They could be 3-0 and stand at 0-3 because of that we get a spread I feel is off a bit probably closer to a PK game really. Nuggets were favored in Philly last year and both teams virtually the same. Denver has benefited from playing just 3 games this year while Philly playing 3rd in 4 nites..

~ Sea @ Char - Seattle is the best 1-4 team this season, they are a "few" 4th Q collapses from being 5-0. Every nite they find a new way to lose but eventually they will play a game. Tonites a great spot with the 3rd in 4 nites away also part of a 5 game tripwhich has seen them go 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS. They play in ATL tmrw. Big injury with Raymond Felton being OUT here but Morrison steps in at the two and Knight slides to the point. Last year Seattle was waxed down in Charlotte by 13 and 25 after 3 quarters. That was the Marvin Ely , Jumaine Jones , Primo Brezec frontline..Okafor is beginning to live up to the potential tag and Sean May is also playing well off the bench. I like Morrison starting here against a team disinterested in playing defense. Havent watched the past 2 Sonics game and cant understand the low shot attempts in those games. WIth Miami I played the UNDER with Shaq out but went Over in Orlando which was never close...I gonna wait and see where this total settles but I think I play the over here...Collison is questionable along with Fortson both were limited in pratice on Thursday.

~ Utah @ Bos - Not crazy about road chalk but Boston gave it everything to defeat Charlotte at home at the OT buzzer..Utah hung with NJ but ultimately faded. I see Utah bouncing back here but historically the Celts play Utah well. This year I dont think they have the big men to playwith this developing line of Boozer , Kirilenko and Okur. Al Jefferson loss will be felt here especially..Ryan Gomes an out of shape Ratliff , Candy Man and the rest of the cast will have there hands full. Utah is putting there opponents on the line 37 times a game and Charlotte went to the line 52 times versus Boston pushing the Celts up to 39 FTs allowed per. Both teams are solid from the line and hit a decent pct from three...

~ Miami @ NJN - For me I just think Miami has looked awful this year. Shaw probably isnt 100% and he was a big reason why they won last week in the 1st matchup. Miami has won 5 straight but this isnt last year and heat arent coming off an embarassing home loss. RJ was less then 100% last week I believe in this game and it showed in the boxscore. Miami won a close one but I think NJ rolls here at home...

~ NYK @ Hou - Tough spot for the home team 5th in 7 days , off a 3 game road trip . NY played Houston tight last year and the NYK showed they can win a tight game witha 4th Q comeback in Denver. They showed heart on Monday and coming back vs SA but the season is young and Isiah is still looking for a mix that works.....to many points here...

~ NO @ Port - Value play here as NO starting get abit overvaued IMO as we saw hem lose ATS to GS twice. The Blazers have pulled off a couple upsets at home already but I think we should have still seen -4 here. Randolph hasnt played particulary well vs NO and he is there offense.

~ Det @ LAL - DET always struggles on the west coast but I think LAL is falling back to there old Kobe ways...stand and wtach Kobe......

Thursday NBA thoughts -

Last nite was so-so but a positive one nontheless.

Plays-
Under 213.5 -105 Dallas (7x)
Over 195.5 -110 Golden State(5x)
Golden State ML-118 (4x)
Suns -4 -102 (lean) passed
Over 183 -105 Chicago (6x) Win

Team Totals-
Under 102.5 -106 Mavs (1.5x)

2nd H
Warriors ML -126 (1x)

CBB Plays (1-0 +2.00 YTD)-
Alcorn State +30.5 -105 (2x) L
StBonnies -4 -120 (2x) L

Thoughts-
~Bulls @ Cavs- Offseason additions of PJ Brown and Ben Wallace have improved this team defensively but still not addressed there need for a go to scorer IMO. Who takes the big shot on this team? Who wants to take the big shot? From what I have seen CHI really hasnt improved much they beat Miami in the opener and Milw. Well the Heat look like shit so far with or w/o Shaq and Bucks blew there load on opening nite winning in DET. Chi lost a squeaker to Sacramento at home and got trounced following there win in Miami down in orlando. To me a good team wouldnt be so flat off a big win. Cle has killed themselves at the FT line this year. They defeated Wash in the opener but missed half there FTs making the Final look closerthen it should have been. They broke there drought in SA by winning SU there last Friday. However they followed it up by losing a close game in Charlotte the next day where again FTs were an issue. Then they come home and you think everything wil be okay but they lose to ATL in OT. They blew a DD lead with about 8 minutes to play. They made only 8 of 18 FTs in the 4th Q and OT and struggled mightily throught from the charity stripe. So Cle hasnt looked good but IMO primarily due to there inabilities to hit FTs which could be corrected easily IMO.
The Cavs own the Bulls winning all 4 last year and this is a home team dominanted series. Hoping this line gets cheaper but thinking about Cle here and the over.

~Dallas @ Suns -Dallas is really clueless right now and the Suns cant finish a game off. Despite the poor records I would say the Suns are playing much better then Dallas right now just getting killed by a tough schedule. With Dallas continuing to struggle on Offense and Suns off an exhausting OT effort vs the Spurs I saw a much lower scoring game then anticipated. Suns played 4 in 5 nites then get a few days off but play a tough OT game last nite and had to travel back home. Dallas has scored more then 91 just once in 4 games and Howard is no OUT for awhile with Stackhouse starting. My big concern is both teams allow high opposing FG percentages and 31 FT attempts per. Hope people saw my heads uplast nite on the total down to the 209 area now

~NO @ GS - Really like GS here but Richardson is now listed as questionable along with Pietrus and Diogui being banged up and questionable. This is like so many others a home dominanted series but NO wins have all been narrow including Tuesdays 4 pt win vs GS. The Warriors could have been flat playing there 4th game in 5 nites but they came to play. Really like the Over here as it is lower in Golden State then it was in NO on Tuesday...195.5 here to 198 there. Really GS shot better then NO did except from the 3 pt area (7/25 vs 6/15) which left GS 30/55 from inside the arc vs NO 32/74. Richardson wasnt much of a factor either with Monta Ellis and Anthony Roberson picking up the slack. So basically the Hornets have improved from last season with the continued emergence of Paul and West plus adding Peja and Bobby Jackson. Waiting on injury updates before I decide.

~Friday early looks Charlotte -1 but can be patient with this line. Playing Over 199.5 -115 Atl @ Toronto. Looking at Tor -4.5 , NO -3 and over 199 Utah...

Week 11 CFB

This Weeks Plays:

Weekday-
Under 54 -110 Toledo (2x) Win

Under 52 -110 Rutgers & Louisville (4x) Loss & Und 27-120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Rutgers +7.5 -115 (8x) Win ML +209(1x) Win RU +3 -120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Under 50 -110 BYU / Wyoming (3x) Loss & Und 22.5 -111 2nd H (1x) Loss

Under 48 -110 Cent Mich / West Mich (3x) middle Over 46-109 (3x) late change xxx
Under 53 -120 UAB (3x) PUSH (middled the wrong one I guess)
2nd H +3 -128 (2x) UTEP Win

Team totals
Under Lville 28.5 -110 (1.5x) W
Over 14 -140 Buffalo (1.5x) W

Under 59.5 -110 Minnesota & Mich State (3x) Win +3.
Michigan State +3 -120 (8x) Loss -9.6
North Carolina +14 -115 (3x) Win +3.
Teaser Purdue +9 / Under 53 (3x) Loss -3.60
Purdue +141 ML (1.5x) Win +2.11
Iowa +1.5 -102 (5x) ML +118 (5x) Loss (ouch ) -10.10
Auburn -11.5 -105 (3x) Loss -3.05
West Virginia -17 -110 (5x) Win+5.00
Over 59 -109 Baylor & Okl State (3x) Win +3.00
Over 51.5 -110 East Car & Marshall (3x) Win+3.
Over 51.5 -139 Vandy (3x) middled Under 55 -110 (1.5x) Win +1.50
Kentucky ML -115 (5x) Win +5.00
Over 53 -114 Tulane (5x)
Over 56-105 Rice & Tulsa (3x)
Smu +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +141 (1x)
Northwestern +23.5 -110 (3x)
South Carolina (buy) +14 -120 (3x) middled Fla -12-105 (3x)
Over 44 -110 Florida (3x)
Indiana +19.5 -110 (3x)
Over 51 Ind -110 (3x)
Arizona+14 -107 (3x)
Neb ML -114 (3x) ML -110 (2x)

Over 54 -102 Notre Dame (5x)
Nevada -16.5 -117 1st Half (3x)
New Mex +7.5 -110 (3x)
Under 58 -105 San Jose State (3x)
San Jose +14 -110 (3x)
Oregon State ML -122 (3x)
BC 1st H -17 -104 (3x)
Under 53 -111 Oklahoma(5x)
Tex Tech +9 -110 (3x)
Under 47 -105 Arkansas (3x)
Bama +18.5 -111 (3x)
Over 39.5 LSU (lean)
UCF +1 -105 (5x)
Kansas State +17.5 -116 (3x) middle w/ Texas waiting
Penn State 1st H -20.5 -122 (2x)
Over 24 -105 1st H BC (2x)
ASU ML -105(3x)
Hawaii -21 1st H -115 (3x)
Under 77-110 (3x)
FSU -5 -105 1st H (2x)

Team Totals-(all 1x unless noted)
Under 0.5 +254 Temple
Over 36.5 -119 BC
Over 24.5 -119 KentuckyWin
Over 30.5 -117 Navy Win
Under 14.5 Georgia -118 Loss
Over 10.5 +103 Alabama
Under 10.5 -130 Stanford
Under 30.5 -116 Minnesota Loss
Over 27.5 -132 Mich State Loss
Over 32.5 -105 Notre Dame
Over 15.5 -115 Zona
Under 35.5 -108 Boise State
Over 24 -108 Pittsburgh
Under 17.5 -108 UNLV

Teasers
FSU , Notre Dame , South Fla (4x)
Auburn -1.5 , Utah , -1.5 , ND , -1 (3x) L

ML Parlay
Ark ML -222 & FSU -330 (3x)


2nd H
Over 25.5 -114 Kentucky (2x) W
Tulane +151 ML (1x)

Thoughts-
~ Louisville @ RU - If you look at stats and boxscores it will probably leave you hard pressed to see the value in Rutgers. I for one complained about there incredibily easy early season schedule. What really changed my opinion is how they played @ Pitt. Before that game Tyler Palko had been playing some real solid ball along with the rest of his tyeam since the Mich State game. RU ran right over them and shut down there pasing game. When it came time for Teel to do something he made a few plays late. Rutgers isnt bringing sexy back by any means. There playing good hard nosed , fundamental football. Tonite is the biggest game in the past 20 or so years for this program sort of like it was for Louisville last week. Thats a key diffference as last week Louisville was the team with all that energy behind them and tonite they will be fcaing that team. Also note Lville hasnt really had a tough road game. Its biggest test was Syracuse and while one could argue they used a vanilla playbook before WVU it really was significantly better talentwise. They didnt score till about 5 minutes before the half and the 28-13 final saw Kolby Smith run on ein with about a minute to play to ice the game. The Dome is a tough place to play but you gotta believe tonite will be alot tougher. Louisville allowed four 80+ yards TD drives something WVU really hadnt been doing. They had really benefited from short fields combined with there speed to get quick scores. So I could see RU grinding it out vs this defense with Ray Rice and Bryan Leonard. On offense last week Lville agianst what I would call a so-so defense had struggles putting the ball in the end zone with 3 short Fgs. It will only getharder here especially on the road. They benefited from momentum plays to open the 3rd Q a Slayton fumble returned for a TD and a short punt returned for a TD. The talent edge is on Lville side but they have been inconsistent on offense and IMO unproven on the road.

I fully expect a low scoring grind it out type game here. The way I see it Lville probably should only be about a FG fav here. However offense is sexy and so is points thats where RU comes up short in the image department. The Lville offense wasnt as explosive as made out to be last week IMO and that was a home game not a road game. No one believed( I did) in Lville last week at home but by beating a WVU team that had one quality win (Georgia in the Bowl last year) they suddenly become national contender material...I dont see it.

~ Buff @ Akron - I would like to fade Buffalo off abig home upset and Akron off a flat game vs BG. However with the new QB I think its best to stay away from a side despite my Akron lean. I am truly disappointed I missed the total would have loved to play the over @ 44.5 even 46 but now at 50 its way past where I saw value.

~ Wyoming @ BYU - I think Wyoming can hang here. There defense especially versus the pass has been solid enough granted they havent played a team like BYU. There offense has struggled on the road at places like UVA and TCU but suprisingly moved the ball @ Syracuse. Look for Wyoming to attempt control TOP and run the ball. Doesnt appear to be an ideal situation weather wise to throw the ball. Wyoming has not won @ NYU since 1987 needs a W to bvecome bowl eligible. Just looking for more info on this game...

~ WMU @CMU - While the offenses have improved its mainly IMO due to competition. With West mich struggling lately I think there is some value in them. With this number now dropping I may look to middle though as this how 24-21 (23-20)written all over it. The only WMU road game that saw any offense was when they played @ Ball State which is self explanatory.

~ UTEP @ UAB - Clearly UTEP is the better team here and dsperate for a win but that lackluster effort vs Rice scares me. UAB IMO hasnt played well at home losing to Marshall , beating a horrible Memphis team by 6 , losing in OT To Miss State, and beating Troy(big deal) and a solid 5 pt win vs ECU. Like alot of this midweek games again I like the Under since UAB has had trouble on offense...

Comments to come.........

Noon starts -
~ Minny @ Mich State - last home games for the Spartans against a Minny team 0-4 on the road who hasnt been able to score away . You could say Mich State has quit but I will say if they quit why did Purdue need a late FG to pull out the win last week? Stanton's last home game I believe. Minny has wins at home agaisnt Temple , ND State , and now Indiana....simple overreaction to Minny exploding last week.

~ Purdue @ Ill - The Illini playing better and Purdue is inconsisntent but not sure they deserve to be 3 pt dogs. Ill only has the 3 pt win @ Mich State really to speak off and that was the week after the ND historic comeback on them. They blew a lead to Indiana , losy to Ohio U and Cuse at home...a close game to flat Ohio State team....weighing on bettors minds.. Illinois 5-0 ATS catching 17 or more but 0-4 in other roles...

~ GT @ UNC - Never a big fan of GT as fav since the have proven to be inconsistent in the Ball ERA. However I think UNC has shown some improvement the past 2 games and they hung with GT last year. Dailey is the key here...

~Cincy @ WVU- Think people are down on WVU after the Ville game. However now that Ville has been defeated this game is HUGE for them as they still face Rutgers to end the season. Cincy has played some great defense but WVU speed kills and they IMO wont score enough to cover. Remember that Cincy caught 25 @ Ville earlier and played well but they wont be sneaking up on anyone now. WVU handled them 38-0 on the road last year. Mountaineers are rested and while they may be down hopefully the timeoff combined with Rutgers upsetting Louisville helps them refocus.

~Wisky @ Iowa - Iowa won the past 4 years in this series including in Madison last season. This is senior day @ Iowa and Stocco if he plays will be hurting with a seperated shoulder and brusied ribs. Just think its a grat situational play after Iowa lost SU at home to Northwestern. Logic tells you how can you take Iowa here BUT you have to BUY low always and Wisky really hasnt beaten anyone to speak of...okay Penn State buttell me how the Lions are gonna wina road game with taht offense? You cant so not that impressive.......

~Baylor @ Oklahoma State - If Bell was healthy I would play this heavier. The Bears will again be exposed by the Ok State air attack and should score enough versus a medicore defene that has had it sown issues.

~Georgia @ Auburn - Third consecutive SEC road game for the DAWGS is not a good spot. Auburn has some banged up starts but they will play. Dont see Georgia breaking 14 pts here..

~ Vandy @ Kentucky - Simply like Kentucky being able to win 2 close SEC games and pulling off an upset then follwoing it up with another home game. Kentucky was able to win @ vandy last year.

~ Houston @ SMU - The Cougars have some impressive wins but on the road they lost So Miss and only beat Rice by 1 in the opener. Willis has a 20-4 TD/Int ratio and the mustangs are sneaking up on people......

~ Ohio State @ Nwestern - We all know whats on deck....Michigan vs ohio State so fading both a week before

~ Cal @ Arizona- Probably a bad decision but a PAC 10 game with a 2 TD home dog...

~ Neb @ A&M - Think A&M will be down here after a close loss. Nebraska redeemed themselves smokingMissouri. A&M cant throw enough to exploit the NEB defensive weakness.

The NFL Week 10 Sunday November 12th

Plays: (have few to write about)

Under 39.5 -110 Chicago Bears /NY Giants (10x)
Bears +3.5 -135 (5x)
NY Jets +10.5 109 (5x)
Bengals +1.5 -105 (5x) and Bengals +100 ML (3x)
Over 48 -105 Sand Diego (5x)
Chiefs ML +120 ( 5x)
Jaguars -10 -103 (3x)
Browns +9.5 -117 (4x)
Over 42 -102 Atlanta (4x)
Titans +9.5 -127 (5x)
Saints +6 is not a play with Horn out
Eagles -6.5-120 (5x)
Cardinals +7.5 -120 (7x)
bills +12 -105 (3x)
Packers +5.5 -110 (3x)

Thoughts-

~Chi@ NYG - The injuries have piled up in this game but the important ones IMO are going unnoticed. The main reason CHI has been able to stretch the field this season is the emergence of WR Berrian. He will not play on Sunday nite. For NY already dealing with a banged up Plaxico who missed the Texans game they just learned Toomer is done for the year. I was already all over this total and had played it before learning of this injury. The NYG defense is going to missing three DE's it appears Strahan , Umenyora , and Tuck. Arrington is already done for theyear @ LB plus Short missed last week and so has Sam Madison. For CHI Urlacher got hurt and is questionable but I think he plays. They also already lost Mike Brown for the season. It was NOT there defense that cost them vs Miami but the repeated turnovers of the offense.

I just dont see this offenses consistently moving the ball as they both will have gameplans heavily reliant on the run. The offense has not played well on the road. Go back to the opener vs a young GB team they put up 26 but had 4 FGS , a punt return and a great circus catch for a TD by Berrian. Against Minny the scored 19 but again 4 FGS and TD thanks to a late taylor fumble that gave them a real short field , we know about the offense @ Arizona...zilch! Even this week one TD was off a Harrington pick that gaveChi momentum and they marched downfield.

NY at home has score 21 vs Indy , 19 vs Wash , 17 vs TB despite good starting field position and only 14 last week vs Houston(only allowed 26 , 3 , 3 , and 10). The weather should be in the low 30's and if the wind is howling @ the Meadowlands it will be freezing!!!!(trust me) . Without much of a passing game Chi will struggle to move the ball versus a NYG defense that allows 3.1 YPC against a Bears O who averages 2.7YPC away. NY will have to rely on Jacobs and Barber who avg 4.7 YPC at hoem against CHI D at 3.1 YPC but remember Ronnie brown found success against them. Wind at nite could also be interesting whne it comes to FG kicking......


~ NYJ @ NE - The Pats will be w/o safety Rodney Harrison here . With the emergence of Leon Washington the Jets go into this with arunning game something they didnt have in the 1st meeting. Pennington was able to move the ball late but the game was basically decided already. With Harrison missing it should be easier this time around even in NE. The Pats for some reason have not played well at home : close 2 pt win vs Buffalo , a loss to Denver 17-7 , a 10 pt win that was much closer then the final to Miami and the Indy loss...very strange...while the Jets havent played that bad away winning @ Tenny , @ Buffalo , losing a heartbreaker in Cleveland and the annihilation @ Jax. Other divisonal rivals like Miami and Buffalo competed in NE cant see why NYJ cant here. Thinking over here as NE should score about 24...

~ SD @ Cincy - The Bengals are fading BUT the SD defense has so many injuries it doesnt warrant IMO being favored. This should be a shootout for sure. Basically I see this as Cincy -1 here not +1. SD has lost @ KC and @ Baltimore but won @ SF and @ Oakland....yeah they dont have a quality road win. They have the erly start factor and I think Cincy let it all out after the BALT game. You cant tell me these guys dont care...TJ with the helmut toss and Palmer chewing out Henry. This team should have a better attitude and focus here. The SD defense has shown holes allowing 79 pts past 3 and even allowed 19 1st H points @ SF ...

~ Skins @ Eagles - The Skins won a fluke game thanks tomany Dallas miscues . What hasnt improved is the Skins defense as it ranks near the bottom in pass defense..they went to Troy Vincent at safety and Springs and Rogers are both playing now, tough to say if they are 100% though. Enter a Eagle team off 3 consecutive losses , a home loss and a bye week which they are 7-0 under Reid the following week. Wash could be w/o Moss again and now Lloyd is hobbled as well. Skins havent looked well @ Indy , Dallas or NYG. Skins just wont score enough and the Eagles want revenge for the Skins sweep last season.

~ Balt @ Tenn - The return of Steve McNair! Tenny playe d awful @ Jax but it followed a run of some solid games and the Titan defense was missing soe key players including Pac Man Jones. The Ravens offense really hasnt done much more since booting Jim Fassel. Its tsill there defense setting up there offense. Now we have Heap , Ray-Ray and Ed Reed listed as questionable. ravens are tough as hell to run on but they can be thrwon on to bad Vince Young hasnt really found that part of his game. Just looking for a scrappy game that is somewhere around 17-13 or 20-14...made this play as soon as I saw it @ +9.5 that was ridiculous. ravens are 4-11 ATS away and 0-4 last 4 as road chalk while DOG is 12-3 in the series. So I still see an struggling Ravens offense which makes this a big number to cover.

~

November 8th NBA -

Its official the NBA 'shaves' years off your life....


Plays
Philadelphia +3.5 -105 (5x) ML +143 (1x) +4.00
Over 203.5 -111 Tor (3x) +3.00
Over 202 -110 Indiana (3x) +3.00
Indiana +5.5 -110 (3x) -3.30
Over 208.5 -110 Orlando(5x) -5.50
Under 201 -110 Boston (3x) -3.30
Char +5 -110 (2x) +2.00
NJ -3-107 (3x) +3.00
Over 190 -110 NJ (5x)-5.50
Bucks ML -125 (7x) -8.75
Suns +6.5 -110 (8x) ML +235 (1x) +7.00
Over 204.5 -110 Suns (3x) +3.00
Blazers +4.5 -109 (3x) +3.00
Under 199 -111 (7x) Portland (so fucked here...66 pts last 13 minutes of the 1st H) o 98-105 2ndH(1x) +6.00
Mavs + 3-107 (5x) ML +134 (1x) -6.00
Kings ML -120 (6x) +6.00(tied @ half so counted it as a game play)

Net +7.65

Parlay ML's -5.00
Magic -269 / Denver -550 (5x) (about .62cents for every dollar) risk 5 / pays 3.10
Loss -5.00 how does Denver blow a 10 pt 4th q lead to NY???????

1st H
Bobcats ML +166 (1x) +1.66

2nd H
Ov 92.5 -101 Kings (2x) +2.00

CBB play
Brown +17 -120 (2x) +2.00

Thoughts-
~Philly @ Tor - In recent seasons the 76ers have played well in Toronto and won all 3 meetings with AI playing last yr versus the Raps. Who have played okay early but lack rebounding beyond Bosh which hopefully the Philly frontline could exploit. CWeb has struggled so far but hopefully the fact his minutes were down last nite keep him fresh(or his knees). Basically dont see why after 1 bad game Philly is the dog here...PK seemed correct at worst. In recent games Philly was about 4 pt chalk in Tor . To me Tor has new faces and talent wise is going sideways more then anything else. They really didnt replace Villaneuva(Bargnani/ Garbosa still raw) yet.The 76ers need to get CWebb going as Iguadola , Korver and AI have played very good early IMO...try and hold out for+4 but not sure we see that also would lean towards an Over here. Philly has allowed high FG % to Miami , Orlando and Ind through the 1st 3 quarters where they trailed by 25 to start the 4th and Indy appeared to shut it down.

~ Ind @ Wash- Well O' Neal twisted his ankle last nite but claims to be fine and will play here. On ething I see is the Wizards still not playing much defense as evidenced by there 50 % FG allowed and 46% allowed from 3. Etan Thomas appears to be playing well though coming of a 15 board , 9 offensive , 6 block game. However he and haywood got into a scuffle basically over the situation that has arisen in WASH where Thomas was named starter but Haywood felt he was deserving. Haywood has openly commented in the press about his feelings . Wiz allowed 117 to Boston and aton of FT attempts. Looking at the 1st 3 games Wiz have basically allowed teams to make 9.3 of the 20 3pt attempts (28 pts allowed per game from three), they put opponents on the line 32 times a game and what saved them versus Cle was the Cavs going 15/30 in FT's. WIth Indy thats nit gonna happen with them @ 78%(would be 24 of 31). With Jaskevicius ailing with back issues look for the ole spark plug Darrell Armstrong to get increased minutes and he is palying well early. Wiz bench has really only 3 contributing players and Haywoods seems minimal...so it's only Daniels and Hayes really. Havent pulled the trigger yet but thinking Pacers +5 -105 and Over 202 -105.

~ Sea & Orl -While the number might seem high these two teams are all offensive. Magic have scored 106,103 and 109 at home while SEA b4 yesterday was 106 ,112 and 117 . They had allowed at least a 100 every game and 110+ twice. Both teams dont rebound well and stroke the three at 40+ % from 3 pt land. Orlando gets to the line over 30 times again and puts there opponents on the line at least 30 times. Seattle the same but cause of there jump shooting dependency have not gotten to the line at a high rate...low 20's . The Magic have played well at home and I figure this line is tight. Miami knew they had to play solid defense with Shaq out and they did...SEA also was +5.5 to a Shaq-less Miami. Waiting for lower then 209...

~ Char @ Boston- Both teams playing fairly well on the defense end but probably due to there youth are allowing teams to many FT attempts. Bobcats holding opponents to 38% from the floor but 37 FT attempts. While celts at home holding teams to about 42% from the floor. Basically this game will come down to FT shooting differential where I see Boston with the edge. The Bobcats played well versus Boston last year and with a healthy May and Okafor plus Morrision have vastily improved already. Leaning towards grabbing the points with Charlotte maybe even ML or 1st H ML. Boston should get a defensive boast from the return of Ratliff.

~ Utah @ NJ - Well I for one have believed in Utah early and there new offensive game plan. However this is a situation where they play a quality team away and basically must win SU to cover ATS. I hink cause we havent seen much of NJ yet just 2 games and losing @ Miami they are somewhat under the radar. they get Cliff Robinson back to help versus that Utah frontline and against Utahs very deep lineup. Personally I think we see another high scoring game...Utah has played very well but they have had the benefit of being home and sneaking up on teams. Utah send sthere opponents to the line nearly 37 times a game which is where NJ can get an edge. Utah has shot well early and opponents have avg 85 shots versus NJ.

~ Hou @ Milw- The Rockets play there 4th game in 5 nites . For me its just gonna be a situational play. I think this line is accurate and not shaded. Houston has gone 1-2 on the road and wasnt all that impressive versus Memphis last nite. Houston had 24 turnovers last nite and 45 past 2 games. Think MILW could have the size to negetate HOU rebounded edge. bucks win a tight one here..

~ Suns @ Spurs - Another situational play with Spurs playing 5th in 7 nites. Amare gets into the starting lineup here with the Suns struggling. The Suns will also have Jalen Rose available tonite. I think the Suns struggled due to they played some tough opponents and had to do so in a 4 game in 5 nite stretch. They probably took LAL for granted with Kobe out. They rebounded with a win vs LAC but lost a close game to the HOT Jazz and then had a rematch in LAC they lost. Last years meetings didnt have Amare and the previous season we saw totals in the 210's. SA is gonna be abit tired and Suns somewhat desperate early. The Spurs really struggle from teh FT line despite getting alot of attempts. Suns excel at the line and get there often but also slow the game down by putting there opponnets there 33 times. If Suns get to the line 28 times based on there avg they would make 23 which is anout 3 better then SA previous opponents. Suns have had off sinnce 11/4 th while SA has played in Tor and in NY.

~ NYK @ Denver - Has anything changed here in NY? It seems like the same team who ended last season. A very great start in memphis that was typical NYK 4th Q basketball where we collapsed andhad to battle through OTs to win by a point.......imagine had we lost. Then we traveled and lost ATL , but worse hosted IND and SA and basically didnt even compete. Sure NY had that great 22 point comeback vs SA but down 1 they went COLD. The NYK tend to play only 1 good half of ball so if for some reason they cover the 1st H its wise to fade them in the 2nd H. They have struggled versus Denver in recent seasons and and this line seems accurate to me . Denver struggles from 3pt land which might be the only thing that saves NY caus eDenver still likes to shot them. They have lost 2 close games and have been well rested. Which remains me who made the NBA schedule? Teams seem to be on long rest or playing 4 in 5 nites or 3 in 4 nites...If I play it would have to be Denver.....see a 108 -95 game..

~LAL @ Portland - The trip up north has been unkind to the Lakers recently losing 3 straight and having narrow 1 & 3 pt wins. Brandon Roy is out but Blazers roster is littered with2 guards and I expect Juan Dixon to step in. LAL played some run and gun basketball but with Kobe back it alwas regresses to satnd around and watch Kobe. Andrew Bynum is a kid you should watch. Working with Kareem he has made enormous strides in just 1 season and I believe he still isnt 20 yet! I gave the heads up with this portland UNDER since I thought it was to hig @ 199. Now its dropped but really I didnt see this game reaching 190. last game blazers pulled out a close win but here I think LAL wins a last minute game.. 94-92..early on obe's leg in BtoB's wil be a question mark IMO.

~ Dal @ LAC - Dallas is 0-3 with a couple of tough losses and LAC is 3-1 with a couple of tight wins. They lost @ PHO but got payback a few days later. They also hosted Denver and narrowly escaped with a WIN as well as played Portland tight for 3 Q till the blazers finally hit empty and LAC pulled away. I believe they got the cover versus portland after 2 missed FTs up 11 Maggette got the board and put it back just b4 the clock hit zero. Josh Howard is now out for Dallas putting Dallas in further dispair. I dont know why Avery Johnson chose to strat Bunckner over Devin Harris but the error has been corrected as of Monday. Howard is a loss but there should be some depth at the 3 spot looking at the roster. Last season clearly a much better one or Dallas saw the Mavs as 4 pt favs in LAC. Sort of concerned about the total drop but I do like the over here. Then again past history shows a low scoring game...

~ Det @ Sac - Its hard with Miller OUT to not like DET. However SAC played very well w/o him on Monday and the Pistons have lost something like 9 of 11 in SAC. I wouldnt be suprised before its all said and done to see a PK here or DET -1. While I did like the Under it was very marginal @ 188 IMO.

For Wed played Suns +6.5 -110 (8x) spurs 4th in 5 nites and Suns well rested. (ML +235 as well). Blazers +4.5 -109 and Under 199 -111 played as well...

Tuesday NBA Thoughts

Plays ~
Cavs -9.5 -110 (7x) L -7.70
Under 189 -110 (2.5x) L-2.75
Pacers -4 -120 (5x) W +5.00
Over 197 -107 Ind (3x) L -3.21
Und 204 -102 Seattle(3x) W +3.00
Memphis +4 -102 (4x) ML +164 (1/2x) L -4.58
Warriors +8 -118(avg price) (5x) W+5.00
Heat -7 +107 (2x) reminds me of Sac.minny last nite... L- 2.00
LAL -7.5 -115 (4x) The NBA is humbling L -4.60 thanks to a choke and 2 missed FTs

Three huge mistakes by me. First liking Seattle but switching to Miami , second loving Houston @-2.5 but going Memphis and third was talking myself out of UND in NO>



1stH (+2.18)
Over 99 -121 Philly (1.5x) L
Under 104 -110Miami (1x) W
Under 100.5 -105 LAL (1.5x) W
Ind -2.5 -105 (1.5x) W

Team (-1.08)
Und 89 -108 ATL (1x) L

2nd half (-2.15)

No play on the Indiana game

Cavs -7 -103 (1x)L

Ov 89.5 -112 Houston (1x) L

Over 95 -107 GS(2x) PUSH

Atlanta @ Cleveland

Appears to me that the Hawks are a getting alot of credit for 2 home wins. A team that was about 12 pt dogs in Cle last year , 6 pt dogs in Philly in the opener and so on opens at just 9.5. I expected at least 11 here. Atlanta will have trouble on the glass and they dont have a scorer outside of Joe Johnson. I would expect Atl to struggle to crack 85 points in Cleveland.

not a big Trend person but I liked this game to fall Under the number and saw these:

OU Trends
Atlanta
Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 13-3 in Hawks last 16 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 road games.
Over is 11-3 in Hawks last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.

Cleveland
Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 home games.
Under is 7-1 in Cavaliers last 8 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 16-5 in Cavaliers last 21 overall.
Under is 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 vs. NBA Southeast.
Under is 15-6 in Cavaliers last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 39-16 in Cavaliers last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 13-6 in Cavaliers last 19 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 35-17 in Cavaliers last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record

Now the Total is significantly lower then the numbers set last year but ATL was more run and gun last season so I waiting to see how this moves...

Plays : Cavs -9.5 -110 (7x) & under 189 -110 (2.5x) & Und 89 -108 team ATL(1x)

Philly @ Indiana

Again we see another road team getting more credit then it deserves. Philly start has been nice but home wins against ATL and a Shaq-less Miami is far from impressive. Winning @ Orlando was nice but I believe it was the game after ORL had shot lights out and trounced Chicago. Philly was catching 5 to Philly so this number should be around 6 IMO(Ind was -4 to SOLID no TEAM AS WELL). The 76ers have been lights out from three thanks to Korver and shooting 52% from deep but Ind allowing just 26%.

Waiting to see if I can catch -4 here and looking at the OVER since Indiana is not the same team it was in years past ...so expect an over play here as well. Almost @ -4...

Play: Indiana -4 -120 (5x) & Over 198-107 (3x)

Sea @ Miami

Sounds to me like SHAQ will not play but thats just a guess. Regardless I am leaning towards Seattle here. Lewis and Allen shot well last game and Miami just doesnt seem to have much going offensely with Shaq..+6.5 seems enticing...total is a mystery.. (gambled played +6.5 -110 small awaiting Shaqs status though)

Plays : Seattle +6.5 -110 (1x) CANCELED & Und 204 -102 (3x)

Hou @Memphis

Hard to not like Houston here but Memphis always play the Rockets well. This line got to pricey but I dont see myself taking Memphis here. To hard to get a handle on Houston but they are playing tough teams early...staying away from for now......but +4 or better I have to play the dog.. Switched

Play: Memphis +4 -102 (4x) ML +164 (1/2)

GS @ NO

Tough spot for GS 3rd road game in 4 nites coming off Dallas win. I just think this line is to high though. Have to look it afurther but 7.5 seems high and so does the total considering NO is involved...esp with teams combing to shot 66% from the charity stripe.

Played: Golden State (buy 1/2) +8 -120 (4x) +8 -110(1x) Still thinking Under

Minny @ LAL

I am far from impressed with LAL's play since Kobe returned. However Minny playing 4th road game in 5 nites and 5th game in 7 days. About a bad as a spot as possible for the Wolves who are searching for offense. Right now staying away but situation could dictate a play on LAL.

Still thinking LAL

NCAAF ~
Under 54 -110 (2x)
The Huskie O has struggled and alot of that has to do with the quality of opponents. However Toledo has been really poor on the road offensively andI look for that to continue.

GL ~ be back later

Monday Nite Football

Okay so the Seattle Seahawks w/o Alexander or Hasselback hosting the Oakland Raiders fails to qualify as the marquee matchup America needs to tune in. Its still an opportunity to figure out thses Oakland Raiders. Now my first point will be dont get overly wrapped up in the fact that this game opened @ +9 and dropped to +7. This happened IMO for one reason. It was thought that Shaun Alexander would return here and when that was ruled out BOOKS adjusted the spread. There wasnt some heavy hitters dropping wads of dough on any side it was a simple adjustment. Some people say dont look at line moves but I disagree. Dont get overly wrapped in line moves but try to figure out or understand why a line is moving. Sure its an educated guess but so is attempting to put a poker player on a hand. If you are truly good at what you do most of the time you have the correct idea of what is going on.

The major difference bewteen these teams is simple. One team (Oakland) appears to play defense every week while the other doesnt (Seattle). One team has a decent offense even with 2 starst missing (seattle) while the other is bottom of the NFL (oakland). Now last week Oak 's D played well actually great till real late in the 3rd Q. I am guessing with the offense struggling all game it started to tire. On Pitts first 8 drives Oak held them to 5 three and outs , 2 six plays drives that netted 5 yards and 22 yards(which pitt had the ball to start in Oak territory) and one drive where they had solid field poistion (own 42) and moved 12 plays 47 yds for a FG. They went 39 plays for 78 yards!! Unfortunately Oak was running 41 plays for 109 yards. The offense only had the ball for anout 19 + minutes of the first 43 minutes. Afterthis point Pitt went 34 plays for 270 yards but self destructed a few times inbewteen where as Oak offense in the 4th Q went 10 plays for 9 yards threw a pick and held the ball for 4:30 minutes.

So basically a big key tonite is OAKLANDS offense. They need to pressure a defense that has allowed 161 points in the past 5 games and they need to keep there defense fresh for the second half. It appears Lamont Jordan is healthy again and get this Art Shell praised Jerry Porter for his effort in his return to the ballclub. They have the weapons now but can the OLprotect and can Walter make the throws?

I think if you watched the oak / Den game the Raiders faced a top notch defense and had afew opps to score...missed a 53 yd fg , picked off near the end zone startting at the opp28 , fumbled inside opp 30 and so on. The played @ SF a team more there level and led 13-7 at half but were sloppy as could be. In the 3rd Q already with 13 points on the board and running plays inside the opp 40 Walter was picked twice! So that 13-7 lead quickly become a 21-13 SF lead. Then 4thQ they get a gift and have the ball at SF 8 and fumble the opp to tie away. A very sloppy game and SF had the ball inside the Oakland 45 all 4times in the 4th Q and managed just 6 points showing the Defense didnt quit. Go back early to the Balt game they literally handed balt a chance to beat them down and the Ravens couldnt...final is misleading. First 2 possession oak fumbles around there 35, 30 yard line. Two drives later , 12 plays and 31 yards and its ONLY 9-0. Its 9 cause balt started the game deep in Oak territory and went 8 plays for 25 yards and 3 points. Late 2nd Q they finally cut it to 9-3 but let the game slip away when we three minutes they allow BAlt to drive 65 yards for a TD before the half. After those 3 FGS to open the
game Balt had gone 3 and out on 3 occassions and managed 5 net yards. Third Q starts they exchange punts after 3 and outs but Oak gets picked off leaving Balt at the Oak 32. Now balt manages negative yardage and punts!! They pin Oak back and later get a safety for an 18-3 lead. Despite good starting field position again after the free kick (own 43) they punt again. On the 8th play of a 59 yd drive and inside the Balt 30 they fumble... the fumble almost goes the distance but Ravens start around the Oak 10 but again cant move the ball settle for three. Now early 4th Q and its 21-3 they both exchange INTS...however Oak gets it at the ravens 41 and manages 3 pts for 21-6. They make balt punt and down 21 -6 move the ball inside the 20 of Balt but cant convert on 4th down with 4 minutes to play and ravens go 5 plays for 81 yards in 2 minutes to ice it.

What I am getting at is the defense has held up in all 3 road games with the exceptions of when it stays on the field to long but thats every defense. SO the key is simply Oaklands offense moving teh ball versus a talented but struggling SEA defense. Is the so far anemic offense of oakland the answer? Certainly could be. I guess the scary part is Oak is middle of the pack running the ball and Sea is middle of the pack at stopping the run. While Oak defense is dead last throwing it and Sea defense is bottom 5 defening it. Is the Sea run defense better though cause people choose to just throw it against them? Whats key from oak standpoint is teher pass defense playing very well and Seneca Wallace looking very susceptibile to throwing INT's so far. Now Sea has allowd 4.8 YPC at home to Minny(thanks to Taylors 95 yard run) , Ari and NYG.

The more I look at this the harder this game gets ..if Sea is healthy I would say about -12 here. There not healthy there not playing defense and I would say more like -5.5 here.. Thing is Oakland has a couple of safties listed as questionable in Cooper and Huff meaning Gibson would start. ty Poole there nickel back is banged up. So there secondary which has been key is a question mark. There LG Sims could miss and withGallery inconsistent that could make that side of the line an issue. Sea looks like Spencer and Locklear will miss but Womack and Asworth arecapable replacements on the OL. Seattle are starting 3-0 is now just 1-3 past 4 thanks to a long FG by Brown in STL at the end ofregulation. While Oak won a game they probably didnt deserve to win last week its still a 2gm streak which breeds positive momentum.

Sea only scored 21 on offense last week and I think thats where they would end up tonite. They couldnt run the ball again and allowed 500 yards of offense to KC. they were only 10-10 versus Minny at the half before Hasselback left the game. really to me Oakland seems to be a watered down version of Minnesota. The Vikes defense is better overall and there offense are reliant on the RB and short passes.

I love OAK confidence heading into this game , lovethe fact the QB Walter is saying how embarrassed he is by last weeks play of the offense and the X-factor Jerry Porter brings to thsi team...Sea hasnt stopped the pass AND Porter& Moss are a nice duo , so can Walter get them the ball??

Basically I played +9 -116 (5x) on Monday of last week. I will keep the play but would be concerned and look to middle if this game comes of the key number of 7. There has been a slight flow of Oak money and I want to see what this game does closer to gametime..now the total I was thinking Over but a strange hard move from 37 to 35 has me digging deeper and watching cause I felt this game would see 38 points...

I'll be updating this matchup...

Okay we have a reason for the total move......severe wind and rain in Seattle throughout the nite. In a game that was seeing a nice amount of over money and being a MNF event which almsot always sees more over flow its telling IMO how hard this line has moved down...also like the Raiders more cause of the weather since they are a run offense...and pts will be scarce

So a sloppy game I a took a shot at under 35 -110 (3x) Under 21 -108 Seattle team (2x). Which if something changes I can always hedge out of.

Yesterdays Week 9 recap:
Redskins +3.5 -110 (8x) & Under 41.5 -110 (3x) ML +160 (1.5x) +13.40
TB Bucs ML -108 (5x) -5.40
Bills -3-120 (4x) +4.00
Ravens -2.5 -130 (4x) & -2.5 -110 (1x) +5.00
Lions +6 -110 (3x) & Over 47 -110 (3x) -0.30(so close)
Dolphins +14 -120 (3x) & Under 37.5 -110 (5x) -2.50(painful to lose when I had the game pegged)
Texans +7 .5 -120 1st H(1.5x) & +13 -116 (1.5x) +3.00
STL ML -138 (3x) -4.14 (only dumb play IMO)
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) +5.00
Over 41 -106 SD (7x) & Cle +13.5 -110 (5x) +12.00
Steelers -2.5 -110 (5x) Loss -5.50
Played NE -2.5 -120 (8x) & Under 49 -120 (3x) & Under 24 1st H -104 (1x) -7.64

Net : +24.56 but -7.64 @ nite so +16. 92 all day( +16.10 with everything)

Team totals -4.76(1st losing day on teams in awhile)
Over 26-108 ATL (1.5x) L
Und 22.5 +110 KC (1.5x) L
Und 19 -108 Cincy (1x) L
Und 28 -121 NYG (1x) W
Under 25 -111 Chi (1x) W
Over 25.5 -128 NE (2x) L

Teasers +6.00
Under 58 KC , Under 51.5 Cincy, Over 31 Buff (3x) W
Under 58 KC , Und 51.5 Cincy , Undre 51 Dal (3x) W

2nd H -2.06
Ov 19.5 -111 Pitt (2x) Win
Pitt -7.5 +219 (1x) L
Under 19.5 -102 Chi (3x) L

Monday NBA ~


Yesterday went welll again in the NBA. Looking at my card -

Raptors +7 -108 (2.5x) ML (1/2x) L -3.20 but hedged the Raps with 2nd H spurs-3.5 (2.5x) W +2.50 (net loss -0.70)
2nd H Over 99.5 -120 Tor (2x) Win +2.00
Philly +3 -109 (5x) SU Win +5.00
2nd H Over 93.5 -120 Miami (2x) Win +2.00
Hawks +4 -110(3x) Su Win +3.00
Over 194 -110 (6x) Loss -6.60
2nd H over 96 +108 Atl (2x) PUSH
Sonics -1 -110 (8x) Win +8.00
Under 188 -110 Houston (5x) Win5.00 & 2nd H hedge over 90.5 (1.5x) Win +1.50
1st H under 92.5 (2x) Win +2.00
NO ML -114 (5x) WIn +5.00

Net +22.20 and +4.00 4nd Half

Season Recap ~

Friday +10.00

Saturday +16.35 / +4.00 (2nd H's)/ +0.92(team totals)

Sunday +22.20 / +4.00 (2nd H's)

Sides & Totals YTD +25.87

Team Totals +5.06

Parlays + 5.84

2nd H +9.00

Opening week ~ +45.77 units

New York Knicks +7 -110 (8x) ML +260 (1x) Over 94 -103 team total (2x) Over 2nd H -111 (3x)

SUCKS -9.80 on the game , -2.06 on the team total , and +3 2nd half total
While I spotted the situation I guess I failed to realize this spread was shaded lower then it would have been..meaning books took the situation into the number...sorry!

Basically a situation play. SA has proven to struggle in back to backs but this is the 4th game in 5 nites a spot I fade the fav..

There really is not basketball arguement I could have here. Its purely about picking a spot where team A underperforms and team B overacheives...

Do like the over cause NY defense is so-so and for them to cover they muct score...still thinking


Orlando Magic -3-110 (7x) PUSH ~ Keith Bogans had a shot but made only 1 of 2

I see some focusing way to heavily on the fact Orl is playing a back to back here. Basically IMO we have Philly and Wash as teams who are equal(typical line is home team -3). The Magic lost a tough game on Fri to Philly but were -5 so the market has undervalued Orlando here slightily IMO after the loss to ATL yesterday.

Some series history had Orl winning both home games last year vs a Wash team that something like 14-27 away last season(basically the same team) and also ORL winning 4 of 5 in Orlando.

A nice spot for the Magic to get on track here Wiz havent played that well simply hanging around in Cle but never threatening and outscoring a Celtic team which doesnt exactly have loads of offense. It sgoing to be tough to win in Orl as witnessed by theer late season resurgence last season . They dismantled the Bulls and simply lost a close game to a Philly team getting it done early...

My first instinct was over but after looking at it a few times I see this game probably ending up right around 200..so no value either way....slight to the Under so gonna what till half

Still working on the rest... Milw @ Chi
First thing I think this line is a snip to high should be no higher then 5. With the total what concerns me is the fact Milw has almost no bench scoring through 3 games(think 44 points of 301). I think with Villaneuva in the mix alongside Bogut they are a mcuh better erbounding team as is Chi with Wallace. Alot less easy baskets in the paint for the both and Milw 3 pt shooting outside of Redd is questionable. bucks have struggled to crack 95 against the old Bulls now Wallace is on aboard..

Small Plays +6.5 -108(3x) & Under 191-108 (2x) 2nd H und 95 -113 (2x)

Warriors @ Mavs

You would think with Dallas 0-2 we would see a nice flo w of Mavs money but thats not the case . Instead a GS team in disarray who lost badly @ Utah after catching 6 and got crushed in there opener versus a Kobe less LAL squad. However whats key here is GS has won past 3 in Dallas and the 4th was an OT loss. Oh yeah now Don Nelson is coaching the GS team and facing his former employer. Still with everything against Dallas here this looks like a good on the court matchup to get straight. Gonna try for minus -9 but waiting on this ....like the under...cause Mavs O is out of sync.

Play: GS 1stH +5 +103 (2x) Win / so Dall -5 -114 (1x) 2nd H

Det @ Utah

The line move has be scared. With Utah playing well early on @ -3 liked Utah now we have -5. Seems high but the Jazz have beat some decent teams in Pho , GS and Hou while Det lost to Milw and beat Boston and memphis....so maybe it is worth the -5.

I know one thing and thats I like OVER. We all have that mindset of Utah equals low scoring well 107 avg through games is no fluke especially when you put up 107 on Houston(and consistent 107.108,106). Det not the defensive squad it was under Larry Brown and now Ben Wallace has changed his addy..Pistons can score though...and Utah is allow teams to shoot 35 FT per game so faryou could see 30 of 36 from this DET team from the line..

Play : Over 189.5 -110 (6x) & Utah -4 -115 (2x) / Utah -2.5 -103 2nd H (2x)

Still looking at the West Coast starts..

but played the under 195 -111 in LAC(4x).

Playing Twolves +5 -110 (4x) with Brad Miller out.

Thats all GL

Saturday Nite NBA Thoughts

Started real slow overthinking the Magic total and Bucks side plus losing a couple of tough totals by a bucket....also got screwed playing SEA about 30 seconds before the game got adjusted for Kobe..yet still finsihed +10 for the nite...

Friday +10.00
Saturday +16.35 / +4.00 / +0.92

Sides & Totals YTD +3.57
Team Totals +5.06
Parlays + 5.84
2nd H +5.00

7 Pm
Wizards -7.5 -106 (5x) & Under 200 -101 (2x) Lost -7.32 freakin 1/2 point
Right now Boston is having trouble scoring beyond Wally and Pierce who represent more then 50% of the Celtics points. Washington has rededicated it self to defense this preseason and I think once again BOS could struggle to break 90. You have great situational edges with Boston playing 3 rd in 4 nites while Wiz playing 1st game since WED. Boston also in a B-to-B.

Bobcats +4.5 -110 (5x) 1stH ML +130 (2x) 2nd H +2-110 (4x) SU win 92-88 +3.00 / +4.00
You have Cavs playing 3rd in 4 nites as is Charlotte . However Cavs opened at home vs Wash in rematch from last years playoffs, then traveled to SA to play and win a tough game versus SA. Charlotte was playing well vs Indiana early buy losing Wallace hurt them down the stretch. Last nite they fell apart in the 4th Q in Memphis after leading for much of the game. I think Char has played well in spurts and a nice letdown spot for Cle while Char is backed against a wall early.


7:30 Pm
NYK +3.5 -110 (4x) ML +140(1x) Loss -5.40
People are gonna jump off the NYK badwagon after the loss at Atlanta. Both teams playing 3rd in 4 nites so no edge there really. This is a new ERA in NY and Isiah has to get his team off on the right foot.....just remember that Ind was only -2 @ Charlotte on the opener! Indiana is getting killed on the glass early so look for that as a factor tonite.

Pistons -7 -110 (3x) Win by 9 +3.00
Basically this is where the Memphis defeciencies will show up....on the road. They are going to struggle offensively at times with aging vets and young stars...so the Palace is a tough venue. Especially when DET lost there home opener. Both teams are playing 3rd in 4 nites but Memphis played Triple OT , had a tremendous 4th quarter comeback last nite and now must travel to DET.....Detroit is 8-2 all-time against the Grizzlies (1-1) franchise at home, and has not lost consecutive games at the Palace of Auburn Hills since Dec. 18 and 22, 2004


Bucks -1-110 (5x) Win +5.00
Tough spot for a thin Sac squad playing 3rd road game in 4 nites. It was a huge effort by 6 players last nite to sneak out of CHI with a win. Keep on eye on Villaneuva's status here. Milwaukee gets there home opener here ...

Under 185 -112 Houston (5x) Rockets ML +115 (1x) SU win +6.15
Both teams with ample rest could actually see that backfire not playing for a few days. Houston and low scoring games go hand in hand......Last 3 games failed to break 180 bewteen these two and all the totals were in the high 170's


Warriors +6 -101 (4x) & Over 206.5 -110 (3x) Dumb plays sucker!Loss -7.34
Utah has played well but think this line got a little fat...they were home dogs in there opener. New look Utah though scroing 106 and 107 so far...expect both teams to play n the 100's.

Blazers +3 -108 (4x) ML +136 (1x)& Under 191 -108 (3x) SU Win +8.36
See a tough spot for Minny off a road win in DENVER and the thin air playing Portland in there home opener. Blazer beat them twice SU last season and almsot a third time.

LAC -4-107 (8x) & Over 212 -103 (3x) Wins +11.00
The line is exactly where it should be IMO>Both teams playing inconsistent BUT the run and gun Suns playing 4th game in 5 nites plus the second meting vs Pho. LAC hung with the Suns but couldnt do enough late on the road...now they are home.

Team Totals
Under 88 Memphis -117 (2x) W
Over 100.5 -108 Warriors (1x) L
Good Luck

Friday NBA Thoughts

This early in the NBA season its hard to writeup plays cause really your basically playing perception versus a spread. There is no data to really go off and this past offseason seems to have more player movement then I can remember in recent seasons. So far my NBA sides and totals have been either dead on or way off. It seems that I have lost sides and totals in about 3 games this year which have killed my overall performance..I win a strong play its +6 I lose 2 plays in 1 game its usually -8 something. Opening Nite I was -15 x but because I had both Miami and the over , the next nite ran the table early about +18 but lose the last 5 sides and totals finish -3 but do well with parlays and team totals, last nite have Dal and the under...
been real streaky so far but this is a new season and a learning process.

Sides & Totals -22.78
Team Totals +5.00
Parlays + 5.84
2nd H +1.00

Friday Nite
Early starts 7 PM tips:
Over 207 -107 Milw & Tor (3x)
Gonna wait to see how far this drops. What I like is Toronto looking to play up tempo basketball versus a Buck team who has struggled with defense . We have the subpot of TJ vs Villanueva in the new enviroments. Personally I want to play the Raptors but on the fence.. In the openers Tor managed 94 shots and Milw 93 but need to do better from 3 pt land and getting to the FT line(which Milw allowed DET to do).

Over 191 -109 Orlando & Philly (reduced size) (1x)
I had a change on this cause I didnt realize Orlando went to the line 42 times last game and shot 35 of 59 thats gonna be tough to duplicate. Philly has to see if anyone else is clicking besides AI right now as Webber really struggled. I guess you can figure CHI was tired which led to poor defense and alot of fouls which becomes a high FG percentage for Orlando and alot of trips to the line....Now I am question if these teams do better then low 90's. Also gonna ride PHILLY 1st H +3 -105 (2x)

Over 195 -110 Indiana & NO (3x) Over 194 +101 (2x) now 192
Looking to continue to play Indiana overs early as I did on opening nite. A very different makeup with Indiana who also now looks to push the ball. NO missed 15 FT's the opener and still managed 91 points...expecting a close game and better FT shootings should put NI into the upper 90;s instead of low 90's...have to like Indiana here as Boston also missed a ton of FTs versus NO and would rank IND higher then Boston.

Det @ Boston
Passing at the moment. I dont think DET played that poorly in the opener but smae could be same said for Boston. Basically two teams looking for identities and to establish themselves.
Tends to be a high scoring game so I played the Over 193 -115 (2x)...

Under 204 Atl & NYK -101 (3x)
Hawks lost Harrington in the offseason and his replacement in the lineup Marvin Williams got hurt in camp. That means Rookie Shelden Williams gets the nod and he is limited offensively. Speedy Claxton was also injured in camp and never got in shape. He also played poorly in the opener. NYK defeated or outlasted Memphis in Triple OT after blowing yet another lead......good 1st H team and great 2nd H fade IMO....until they prove diifferently. NY shot fairly well but still ended regulation with just 89 after a slow 4th Q. Francis and Frye struggled offensively while Q probably played his best game as Knick.....would love to take +3 with NY here. Problem is did triple OT leave them dead legged so early in the year?? Not sure what to expect.....

NJNets +4 .5+100 (3x)
I am sure this a popular play after Miami's loss on opening nite. I just dont see any excuse for there play. They spoke about how they wanted to do it again and they looked awful in the game....they couldnt hit anything and until they make some shots outside of Wade or Shaq I will fade...like the over but dont like taking overs afterteams score less then 70 previous game.

Charlotte @ Memphis
I dont know what to expect from either. Memphis showed alot IMO versus NY and the Bobcats unraveled without Wallace in the game. Dont see much scoring from either.....going UNDER
189.5 -111 (2x)

Cavs +5.5 -104 (3x)
This is a play simply fading SA in a back to back situation where they performed poorly last year. Parker with a gimpy ankle probably could use a day off. Not to mention they played a tough game in Dallas. Despite prior struggles in SA look for LEbron to keep it close here.

Kings +6 -110 (3x)
Sac lost Bibby and collapsed against Minny. Tough spot for Bulls already playing 3rd in 4 nites. Looking at the UNDER 185..

Over 199.5 -112 Denver(3x)
They are going to shot alot this Nugget team they just need to make some...

Jazz +7 -111 (8x) & over 211 -112 (3x)
Suns playing 3rd in 4 nite and versus a team that boasts size on them. Bad spot should be a battle and like the new look offense from Utah.

Sonics +4.5 -113 (5x) ML +163 (1x)
Fading LAL now that they are chalk and SEA off a SU loss as 8 pt favs. Bynum hurting now could leave the middle open...

Warriors -9.5 -109 (4x)
Wanted this @ -8.5. Blazers are young and Warriors have owned them last 5 meetings. There is no reason to believe that will change.

Team totals
Over 102.5 Nuggets -119 (2x)
Over 102.5 Jazz-105 (1.5x)

Sunday Week 9 NFL & NBA included

In a backwards mood so starting with the last game first......the Monday Nighter OAK @ SEA

Raiders +9 -116 (5x) probably will middle this great chance of SEA by 7
Basically Oakland plays defense week in week out and Seattle has stopped anyone in over a month...161 pts last 5 wtha low of 28 allowed. I thought Seneca Wallace played fairly well but his ack of experience still leaves him mistake prone. I 'll give Seneca the nod over Walter though but at best the RB are equal(actually like OAKs better). Darrell Jackson has missed a couple of pratices and that puts him in question. Lechler is a solid punter and that should help. The key is the offense of Oakland not giving up field position like they did @ SF and @ Baltimore..

Patriots -2.5 -120 (8x) & Over 25.5 team -128 (2x)
Well I faded Indy last week and they hung around in Denver now another tough matchup @ NE. Remember how Indy smoked them when the NE secondary depleted well that was the only time Peyton Manning won in NE. NE has a significant edge in DEFENSE. The colts have been unable to stop opposing RB's and here comes the duo of Dillon and Maroney. Brady has the passing game clicking now iwth 4 options @ WR ~ Caldwell , Gabriel , Brown and Jackson plus TE Watson. This team is starting to click as evidence by the MNF rout. The colts secondary has issues at safety and if Diem is OUT on the OL there will be a rookie with zero NFL starts in his place. While many wont believe this cause DEN won @ NE I think on a neutral field NE is -1.5 pts stronger...

4 PMs

Denver @ Pitt
So the public doesnt understand this line. real simple last year in the playoffs Broncos were -3 at home vs Pitt and got stampeded...that means if Pitt was home they would be at least -3...whats really changed for these teams? Denver added Walker but has Tatum Bell banged up. For Pitt the lost a couple of players here and there * the Bus) but the difference is Big Bens health and his mistakes. He single handly lost the game @ Jax , vs Cincy and @ Oakland. Remember that Denver is weaker then NE and basically -3 is a fair line....

Indy showed how to pick apart the zone last week and if Tatum is ailing the yards wont come easy versus Pitts front. Which means more pressure on Jake.....

If I play this its Pitt or pass....

SF +6.5 -120 (5x) Have to say Minny is now getting attractive, middle?
This is not cause Minny looked so bad on MNF...I expected that to a degree. Its because the offense has issues and banged up key players. You can throw on Minnesota and The 49ers problem has been stopping teams not scoring on them....alway love getting SF at home after being embarrassed away. SD & Philly have stomped young SF at home but Minnesota is not in that class of talent. The over is intriguing as SF allowed 34 in every game but two....and Minnys D is ailing.....

Over 41 waiting (5x) SD & Cle
The Chargers offense is maturing under Rivers and the Browns cannot stop the run. SD with Meriman now out is missing the core of its defense from last season (Merriman , Phillips , Foley and Olshansky). New look Browns should be able to score enough to remain comeptitive. Not crazy about laying the Chalk......

1PM
Redskins +3 +102 buy to 3.5 though... also Under 41
Love the Skins at home off a BYE finally healthy on defense. Getting Dallas off a national TV comeback win on the road......This should be aPKem. Let Tony Romo do it for awhile before we annoit him anything. The key is really Wash defense getting healthy..look for a low scoring game..... and for Skins to go deep even w/o Santana Moss. Lloyd becomes part of the offense... Dallas defense played well at Carolina , Skins w/o Moss and Skins defense finallyhealtyhy getting Romoe 2nd start..

Atl @ Det
Both teams have key defensive players missing and its shown in the boxscore lately. In the past 3 games ATL has allowed 27,38 and 27. While Det has allowd at least 26 in every game(mostly 30+) since the opener. Now the FAlcons appear to have found a balanced attack on offense and this smeels of a shoot out IMO>Plus the Lions are off a BYE WEEK . The Lions offense has scored at least 20 something since Game 3 outside of the 17 @ Minny which is imprressive looking at that Viking defense. So as this number continues to rise its starts to maek DET look attractive in the +6 or +7 range . What I am hoping is the total slides lower so we can play the over.

Cincy @ Balt
With a better defense by leaps and bounds plus home field you have to like the RAvens here. Cincy has lost 3 of 4 and is a late TD away from being ona 4 game slide. They are decimated at LB and Jamal Lewis looked solid last week. Double revenge spot for Balt.

GB @ Buff
The Bills looked like crap like they always do vs NE at home. The Packers have been a good road DOG OF 6 + but here they are just a FG. I think GB is so depleted at WR and RB it has to catch up to them. Lean towards the home Buffs off the bye as they got healthy.

Hou @ NYG
Staying away from this game. NY is banged up with Chi on deck and might teake it easy here sort of like they did vs TB. They have numerous key defensive players injured. Houston has looked awful on the road but I think they could backdorr NY here.

KC @ StL
With KC defense allwoing alot of points lately I rather play the home team. KC pulled off nice hoe wins vs SD as 6 pt dogs and versus a star-less Seattlle team. Doesnt look like either defense can stop anyone lately.....KC poor track record on Turf.

Miami @ Chi
Think this is to high. SF deserved to be closer to -20 cauise they stink on the road . Miami even with Harrington deserves closer to +10 thanks to there defense. They are off a BYE and Chio has the Sunday Niter on deck. It will be interesting to watch CHI offense here and I think its inside 10pts here

Tenny @ Jax
Both teams suffering from injuries on defense but Tenny probably cant overcome them. JAgs defense is as solid a sthey come and Tenny mighty no break 10 here.....big number but klike Jax as Jags can run.

NO @ TB
Have to look at injuries but like the home dog......thought TB would be -1.5 here..


Looking at the rest of the 1 PMs still...not a great football week! Good Luck & Feel free to comment


Todays Plays ~
Redskins +3.5 -110 (8x) & Under 41.5 -110 (3x) ML +160 (1.5x) 22-19 Skins +13.40
Teams playing bad dont scare me. We know about there issues and Santana Moss being OUT. However they still have Lloyd and Randle El in the passing game along with Cooley and Portis. Romo is making his second career start and is already road chalk versus a division rival. With all things being equal this game should be a PKem. Really liked how Dallas played on defense last week and Skins finally have a healthy defense. Expect Greg Williams to try and confuse Romo as much as possible and SUCCEED at it! Silly trend DOG is 17-5-1 L22 of the series. Boys are 7-19-2 ATS after 14 + wins , 7-22 ATS as road chalk. Skins are 8-2 ATS after a BYE week and 4-1 L5 as home Doggie..

TB Bucs ML -108 (5x) Loss -5.40
From the get go I thought tB should have been -2 here. They have done little on offense past 3 weeks but I think Gruden needed that wakeup call last week. The Saints D has shown some holes recently and look for Cadillac to get established here. On the NO side they have some OL injuries but Bush has a sprained ankle and Horn is doubtful with a groin problem.... Though about the Under but its very close ...Two key injuries on TB defense Rice and Wyms stay tuned on those...

Bills -3-120 (4x) Won +4.00
At first glance Bills favored by more then 3 to GB...Then you start looking at see GB was 6.5 pt dogs in Det while Buffalo was 1 pt favs! Sure GB won SU by a TD and Buff lost by 3 but those lines although somewhat wrong said GB was 3.5 pts weaker then DET and Buff was 4 points stronger..Personally I think its more Bills 1.5 pts stronger then DET and GB 1.5 pts weaker..which means BILLS are 3 pts stronger and 3 more points for hoem field make -6 a better number. GB does well as a big dog of 6 or better not the case here and Buff is rested and tough ATS in NOV historically. GB is 1-6 ATS after a SU win. Bills are 12-4 ATS vs losing teams and 12-5 ATS as fav. Actually thinking Under 41 here...

Ravens -2.5 -130 (4x) & -2.5 -110 (1x) Won +5.00
Really Cincy is in disarray thanks to injuries to there LB corps and OL. The OL injuries hurt there pass protection with Palmer off surgery(who also has injured WRs to deal with) and the running game has less holes. There LB shortcomings allow other teams to run on them and Jamal Lewis finally broke a hundo last week. The Ravens defense isjust head and shoulders above Cincys and thats where this game is won with Cncy offense out of sync. Also thinking an under 42 here...

Lions +6 -110 (3x) & Over 47 -110 (3x) Lions win SU- 0.30
As I explained previously both teams have been scoring in the 20's and ATL actually upper 20's lately. Both teams have been allowing at least 28 a game past few weeks. Both teams missing key players on injuries. Game indoors on turf stresses SPEED.

Dolphins +14 -120 (3x) & Under 37.5 -110 (5x) 2nd H Under 19.5 -102 (3x) SU win -2.50 / -3.06
It has to be a plus to be off a BYE week and having CHI playing on Sunday Nite versus the Hot NYG. Miami's Defense is much better then the D's of the Lions , Seahawks , Bills and 49ers the 4 teams CHI has routed at home. Last week was a special spot as CHI was off a Bye and embarassing prime time game. Therefore the line was soft. Think about SF is +10 at home vs SD which means +17 away...Chi is a little tougher IMO then SD right now so really we should have see 18 or -19 on that but yet the public saw SF value @ +16. Now the betting market will see people willing to lay 14 or 13 with CHI against a better 'bad' team. Harrington is familiar with CHI and the key is not INTS but BAD INT's. The ones that take points off the board Or give points to Chi. If anyone thinks SF on the road is somewhat similiar to Miami on the road they should rethink wagering on sports. SF ia not competitive on the road and regularly allows 35 + points. Miami is almost always competitive but just finds way to lose...see @ Pitt , @ NYJ and @NE....Chi schedule has been so weak its actually laughable...toughest opponent a very medicore SEA team without Alexander. Phins allow 3 YPC away and that means Grossman most do more here... Bears 4-0 TAS home and Phins 0-4 ATS away...low scoring game today 20-10 type. out of respect for CHI I kept it small...

Still looking @ NYG / Hou , StL / KC , Ten / Jax....

My last decisions were:
Texans +7 .5 -120 (1.5x) & +13 -116 (1.5x) Win +3.00
NY is to banged up here and will take Hou lightily IMHO...no Plax means O struggles more.

STL ML -138 (3x) Loss -4.14
Rams are a long FG away from being 3-0 at home while KC is a fg away from 0-3...liked the over but KC struggles away make me rethink and wait for 2nd H.

Team totals -2.20
Over 26-108 ATL (1.5x) L
Und 22.5 +110 KC (1.5x) L
Und 19 -108 Cincy (1x) L
Und 28 -121 NYG (1x) W
Under 25 -111 Chi (1x) W

Teaser +6.00
Under 58 KC , Under 51.5 Cincy, Over 31 Buff (3x) W
Under 58 KC , Und 51.5 Cincy , Undre 51 Dal (3x) W

4PM's
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) SU Win +5.00
Hate that this line dropped so far but Minny is DOME team playing outdoors. Therefore I will stay on it...Like the over but waiting for halftime see an slow 1st Half(slow and low)

Over 41 -106 SD (7x) and Cle +13.5 -110 (5x) Win +12.00
Not sure how teh Browns do it but they keep it close just about every it game it seems. Like the fact Frye ha some free reign now and SD lost its heart on defense Merriman...

Steelers -2.5 -110 (5x) Loss -5.50 2nd H Over 19.5 -111 (2x)Win +2.00 & pitt -7.5 +219 2nd H (1x) L (net +1.00 2nd H)

Broncos are better but w/o Bell this is tough matchup for them. Big Ben is the key here
as he killed Pitt many atime this year...think last week @ Jax and vs Cincy...

Night game
Played NE -2.5 -120 (8x) and team total over 25.5 -128 NE (2x)
Under 49 -120 (3x) & Under 24 1st H -104 (1x)
Comments are above but looking at the under 49 ish here. NE is very similiar to Denver and the total was 37-40 depending on when you played it 45 is fair here IMO. Be back shortly . Last time we saw such ahigh total in this matchup we saw 20-3 witha 51 number. Befoe last meeting Indy couldnt break 24 in NE. This Pats defense is just as good as the prior D's and not sure Indy O can claim that with Stokley ailing and issues at RB..Rhodes hurting and Addai questionable in pass protection...27 -17 final IMHO.....


NBA @ 1PM

Raptors +7 -108 (2.5x) ML +242 (1/2x) change in plans 2nd H Spurs -3.5 -108 (2.5x) & Over 99.5 -120 (2x) Loss -0.70 / +2.00 2nd H
With SA off a loss it seems they are hopping on TOR here. The raptors had covered 5 straight before barely missing the cash in OT in the last meeting by a bucket. The new look Raps flying under the radar have played well in both games and SA 3rd in 4 nites plus the early start..SA 1-9 ATS last 10 sunday games...with NY on deck for 4th in 5 nites they will be a fade on Monday as well...

Hawks +4 -110 (3x) & Over 194 -110 (6x) 2nd H over 96 +108 (2x) -3.60
The Hawks at home just are a much different team. there so young that you cant pay attention to how they play on the road.

Philly +3 -109 (5x) 2nd H Over 93.5 -120 (2x) SU win +5.00 / +2.00
Extremely unimpressed with Miami's play to date

Net +0.70 sides & totals / 2nd H +4.00

Nite hoops~
Sonics see -1-110 (8x)
Though Seattle played very well against them and it seems as if SEA feels they was robbed! They felt the 48 -16 FT attempt difference(30-16 fouls) was the difference in the game as was the no calls late for there players. Had this game @ -2 so its pretty accurate IMO. Both teams scoring a ton but I think home court is the edge here...like the over at 212 ish... I wonder if Kobe shows some rust here? Why here? Alot of times adrenaline carries a player and that could have happened for a guy who missed all of preseason. His shot can also be inconsistent from game to game without the proper reps... Tough spot for LAL trying to beat the same team twice in 3 days.....also you could already see LAL get Kobe a ton of minutes and slowly pahse out some guys like Evans , Vuscic , and Vladdy...(IMO).

Under 188 -110 (5x) Houston & NO (186) WIn +5.00
Played this last nite but its now 183....which I think took away alot of the value. Probably would say play the 1st H under instead. Still thinking about the NO Hornets here. WHy the total? Sort of self explanatory with Houston always play a slow pace and hitting everything they shot yesterday.... be back on this one......Would recommend this game even at 182 but again better idea might be 1st H under...

This site was down and I added NO ML -114 (5x)Win +5.00 & 1st H under 92.5 -109 (2x) Win +2.00 (90@ half..bit of sweat there) 2nd Hedge Over 90.5-105 (1.5x) Win

Good Luck

Saturday College Football Thoughts

Already lost a small play on the Under in Boise State and have Louisville ML (10x) and Under 57 (5x). Really havent decided if I will touch the Friday AF @ Army matchup yet.

On to Saturday afternoon and the NOON starts ~

UVA @ FSU
This might at first glance look like a big number but despite FSU struggles they have lost 2 tough games at home to BC and Clemson. I think the UVA offense made progress when Sewell became the starter but last 2 weeks they havent shown me much. Now they play @ FSU a team desperate for a win , looking for revenge and getting a UVA squad which never travels well to Seminole country..UVA will struggle to run the ball here and thats a big dimension of there offense. Dont see this UVA team scoring more then 14 here . Hopefully Antone Smith and Lorenzo Booker can repeat there solid performance here and Xavier Lee looked solid @ Maryland.

Play:. FSU -12 -110 (3x) Win 33-0 +3.00

Ball State @ Michigan
While its tempting to take the points or the Under here I just cant. Ball State just could hand Michigan alot of short fields and even the most vanilla of Michigans offense plays could cause trouble cause of the talent gap. Ball State was able to backdopor Purdue earlier this year but the Wolverine defense is stout and wont allow much if anything

Missouri @ Nebraska
I was thinking of taking Nebraska here but I tend to not like to fade a team I played and lost with the week before so I was being cautious. Then today Dr.Bob comes out with Missouri as one of his plays and knocks teh line down to 4.5 or 5. Missouri has shown the ability to play well on the road winning @ TT and losing by 6 @ A&M teams that are in the same neighborhood as Nebraska. Still though Nebraska looks attractive to me with Missouri missing ist best defensive player as does the Under 50.5.
Play: Under 24.5 2nd H -112 (2x) Win 21 points +2.00

Maryland @ Clemson
Well I hopped on the Tigers at -17 this morning only to watch Dr.Bob release it as a strong play and see it basiocally settle @ -20. My opinion was Marylands defense was worse then the PPG it had allowed and just surrended 475 yards to FSU at home nearly double there offense output. They also have been getting destroyed on the ground see WVU 360 yards rushing and the following numbers vs quality teams. Clemson has not allowed any team to score more then 9 points at home versus them and held Calvin Johnson catchless! Terps will struggle to score here and I see no reason why the Tigers dont get 35 here.......thought about the Under but really 47 is to low looking at what Maryland allows......

Play: Clemson -17 -104 (4x) SU Loss 13-12 -4.16
- Now its 19.5 and -20 and might drop down some. I would play it up to -20 or even -20.5....

Penn State @ Wisky
The Nittany Lion offense continues to struggle and this is two tough defenses battling eachother. Thought a fair line was -7 so really no interest in a side if I had to guess would say Wisky but I dont have to!! Looking at the UNDER if it creeps into the low 40's....23-13 type game... blew this onje 13-3 Wisky

Northwestern @ Iowa
Think Tate returns here after Iowa cruised to 10 pt win versus N.Illinois. They got a big lead and coasted. The WIldcat offense runs into another tough defense and 10 points even with Bachar @ QB looks like a mountain....I think weather and lack og interst from Michigan had more to do with the 17 points they allowed last week. I look for Iowa to crack 30 poinst here....

Play : Iowa -19 -110 (3x) SU Loss 21-7 -3.30

Pitt @ South Florida
The Panthers are off a home loss to Rutgers and USF off an pathetic offensive effort @ Cincy. Looking for a defensive battle and think the home team could hang.

Play: Under 44.5 -105 (3x) & USF +5 -110 (2x) win SU 22-12 +5.00

Baylor @ Tex Tech
Shaun Bell is done for the year and that makes me want to stay away from this game. I will look at the TTteam over whne it comes out ...

Play : TT over 36.5 -108 (2x) & TT -9 -110 1st H (2.5x) Win +4.50

Indiana @Minnesota
Indiana has played some decent ball lately however even with Minnys struggles this line is to low. Remember that versus a dead Mich State team they were basically TD home dogs , they were TD dogs @ Illinois as well....Minnesota with its struggles has played decent defense and Cupito should be able to throw on Indiana. Both teams were taken to shed verus Ohio State but I dont think Ind can win this game on the road..after the home upset of Mich State.

Play : Minnesota -5.5 -110 (5x) Win 62-20 +5.00

Miss State @ Bama
Right now Bama has struggled and failed to cover versus Vandy , Hawaii , Duke and Miss at home so why would I want to lay chalk with them ? Miss State just went to the wire @ Georgia and home versus Kentucky. Henig is making plays in the passing game which is good since the Bulldogs wont run on Bama. Not great value but .. was eyeing the over 39 yesterdand forgot about it...

Play: Miss State +15.5 -110 (2x)

Florida @ Vandy
I cant figure out this line and cant figure why it jumped from 14 to 17 so I will stay away!

1PM
Central Michigan @ Temple
The inprovement in Temple was evident to me inthe past few weeks. Which led me to playing Temple and even the ML last week. While CMU is a better team then BG it still baffles me they could make Temple such big dogs here..

Play: Temple +19 -110 (4x) bad sign now @ +20 / so stupid should have played CMU -10 1st Half! Holy Backdoor!! 42-26 Final +4.00

Navy @ Duke
Both teams have failed to slow anyone recently on defense. Duke should struggle versus the option and there offense has shown life recently....

Play: Over 47 -104 Duke / Navy (3x) Win +3.00 38-13

Georgia @ Kentcuky
I cant trust the Bulldogs but had this at more like -8 so no value in the dog either.....pass

Bowl Green @ Akron
Waiting to see if this gets cheaper but think -9 is fair. BG has been struggling on offense for awhile now and both teams off bad losses away. See the BG offense struggling to get 14 again...leaning Akron

Kent State @ Buffalo
No interest / opinion

Ohio U @ East Mich
No interest / opinion

Kansas @ Iowa State
Was looking at playing KU +1 then Dr.Bon pushed it to -2 or better. Kansas has played better on the road IMO and looks like theyhave another new QB. Iowa State hasnt shown anything at all this season....

Play: Kansas ML -120 (4x)

Ark State @ Auburn
No interest...

UNC @ Notre Dame
Not crazy about laying this with ND since there offense hasnt really been in sync. NC has been decent against the pass so I am hoping they limit big plays and let ND work for there points. ND defense has been better then expected and UNC offense is in disarray all season..

Play : UNC +27 -110 (2x) & Under 52 -105 (2x)

Hawaii @ Utah State
The rainbows are en fuego but can they be trusted in cold weather and with some injuries to there defense? If anything I play the rainbows 1st H.....

Play: Under 65.5 -110 (2x)

TCU @ UNLV
No interest / opinion

SDST @ Wyoming
Probbaly dont touch this buts it Wyoming or nothing just cant trust the Cowboy offense...

3:30 's

Wash @ Oregon
You wonder what toll back to back OT losses will tale on the Huskies . Just a game better to stay away from....

Miami -Ohio @ West Michigan
No interest / opinion

Tulsa @ Houston
Expect Tulsa to be -3 here so not touching a side. Think this should be a shootout with Smith vs Kolb......

Play: Over 56 -105 (3x) & Tulsa ML -119 (3x)

Purdue @ Mich State
Cant touch the Spartans and how could I go over when Purdue has scored 3 points total past 2 games at home!!! Would love to go under but Mich State would have to try then...

Ohio State @ Illinois
Illinois has coverd all 4 games when getting 17 or more. This is alot of chalk and the Illinois defense is underrated......

Play: Illinois +27 -110 (3x)

FAU @ Mid Tenn State
Would take the home team -11 if anything but this line got pounded down from 14....

LSU @ Tenny
The Vols lost Coker and now Ainge hurt his ankle last week. They were unable to run the ball vs South Car and wont versus LSU. Which means there offense lies in Ainge hands but gimpy ankle...LSU has lost 2 tough road games this year @ Auburn and @ FLA were they couldt make plays on offfense late. Difference here is Tenny DEF isnt the same caliber as those.. For those who wonder why LSU is favored go back to FLA laying -4.5 in Tenny. A bit high but they won SU so -3 was correct here IMO...Tenny struggled at home recently....

Play: Bought LSU -2.5 -120 (5x)

East Car @ UCF
The Golden Eagles havent played any defense of late but 55 seems high...

ULL @ Troy
For some reason I dont see much offense

Play : Under 43 +102(2x)

ASU @ Oregon State
I have to fade the Beavers here with a banged up RB and QB off the win versus USC.....

Play: ASU +3 -105 (3x)

Arizona @ Wash State
No interest / opinion

Nevada @Idaho
Dont like playing a team back from hawaii but Idaho was playing well before that beating. Nevada just 1-3 SU away and only a 3 pt fav @ UNLV where they cruised...double digit chalk seems heavy...

Play : Idaho +10.5 -115 (2x)

BYU @ Colorado State
Cant see how this line is +17 maybe +14 but 17......I have this closer to -13. Colorado State defense is decent and BYU's road high is 33 (31 , 23 and 13 in the others)....

Play : Colorado State +17 -105 (3x)

The 7 Pm starts and after
GaTech @ NCSt
We have GT coming off a nice win at home versus Miami and the Wolfpack who continue to befuddle the world dropping 3 straight after 2 home upsets. The key is HOME UPSETS. For whatever reason NCST under Amato has adpoted the identity of a team who plays better when less is expected (IE: as a DOG). Now some will say NUT they were dogs past 2 road games @ Maryland and @ UVA. The problem with that is they were away and less then FG dogs which means technically they are better then there opponents BUT more important the points didnt matter they had to win to cover the point spread...Not really the same situation as Home dog of +5 where they need to compete...these are the games where yo see favs winning by 1 or 2 points...if they do win...

Bottomline is the situation has a POOR FAV in GT as road chalk versus a GOOD HOME DOG in NCST. I think the young QB of the Wolfpack wille perform better at home and the tandem of Baker and Brown can do enough on the ground as GT has allowed some yardage lately on the ground...Wolfpack have 2 upstes athome and 2 FG losses to decent squads in WF and Akron. if GT played to there full capabilities instead of there usual inconsistencies the Wolfpack could be in trouble BUT that rarely seems to happen...also Travis Bell tends to reflect his teammates inconcistent play with inconsistent FG kicking!

N.C. State is not a team to be overlooked as it has won its last four games against ranked opponents, including victories over Boston College and Florida State this season.

Play: NCST +6 -120 (3x)

BC @ Wake Forest

Personally I understand why this game opened at 6. We had Wake recently win a close game @ NCST in which they were 3 point dogs( tends to mean equal strength) and awhile back BC traveled to NCST as 6 point favs but lost on a last minute TD by 2 points after a Ryan fumble...so that number made sense.

Now we see 3.5 and I have to be real close to laying it with BC. Two very good defenses square off here but while WF has home field BC clarly has the better offense. BC has allowed 22 point since that Wolfpack loss with2 shutouts at home and 3pt game vs VaTech...they should keep the WF runninggame grounded leaving it Skinner to make plays. There FG kicker isprobably the most potent offensive weapon with the ability to knock throughh 50 + yards on a consistent basis....if BC doesnt make mistakes they should control the game and win a low scoring battle around 20-13. Waiting but think BC here but def looking at this UNDER 40...

Play: BC -3-120 (2x) & Under 42 -113 (2x)


Oklahoma State @ Texas

Tough matchup here. I think this line should be closer to -15 not -18 so leaning towards the DOG since pass defense is giving UT trouble despite there 2nd H shutdown of TT. Reid and Co can score but they struggle to stop anyone.....UT low offensive output at home is 37 vs Iowa State and they sat on the ball late...so they should crack 40 here and I cant see why OK St doesnt top 24...

Leaning Ok St +18 but really like the over 62.5(42-21 does the trick) but waiting to see if it gets cheaper

Play: Over 61.5 -110 (3x)

USC @ Stanford
The Cardinal offense is non-existent now that Edwards is done for the year. All season they had struggled with WR issues and have only scored more then 10 points ONCE this year. The 1st Half @ SJST with Edwards at QB and some heakthy Wideouts they put up 34 in the 6 1/2 games since they had 39 total points. I 'll say that Stanford scores 7 but only cause they get a late gift.....Stanford D will eventually tire leading to some easy scores for the Trojans looking to bounce back....38-7? 38-3?35-3 something along those lines.......USC 1st H -17 +100 look sinteresting as well

HAve to think and watch this one...USC -17 +100 1st H looks enticing as does the Under...

Play: USC 1st H -17 +111 (2x) & Under 50-105 (2x)

LaTech @ NTexas

Probably staying away from this but 2 bad teams I think you have to take the DOG here. Outside of a home upset of SMU NT hasnt even been competitive most of the time...

Tulane @ Marshall
Would think if Tulane was healthy @ WR this would be a shootout and the over is teh way to go but they could be w/o 2 key WR's . Ricard can sling it and sudenly Marshall has offense while the Green Wave havent slowed anyone yet....HAve to better understand teh WR picture @ Tulane but did lean Tulane but really the over 57..

Arkansas @ South Carolina
Bad line alert...this game should at worst be a PK...what has ARK done to deserve road chalk? A FLUKE UPSET of Auburn the week before the AUB/FLA? They crushed 3 worthless squads at home and thats about it. They played @ Vandy early and struggled this is a much tougher venue. SC IMO gave Tenny all it couldhandle after getting off the wrong foot with a Pick 6 early....SC gave Auburn and Tenny games both top 10 teams at home......all ARK has done is win @ AUB.....they barely edged BAMA at home in OT and after that @ AVndy is ther enext toughest game...we wont mention USC.....Let ARK show me they are for real.....

Play: South Carolina -3 -120 (3x) probably ML as well

VaTech @ Miami
Real simple overeraction the Hokie upset at home over Clemson. No way should they be favored on the road in the Orange Bowl...think about how they played @BC. The Hokies wont run and they havet shown teh ability to consistent pass with Glennon under center..bad line!

Play : Miami +3 -118 (avg price) (10x) ML +124 (4x)

Oklahoma @ A&M
This line should be a PK IMO... cant see OU as being 6 or so points better on aneutral field without AP. There defense is vastily improving though. The A& M defense is average but right OU is depending on field position to get poinst on the board...think A&M 23-20 here..

Leaning either A&M +3 or better , ML and the UNDER for sure

Play: Under 47 -110 (3x) ML +122 (1.5x)

UCLA @ Cal

No opinion

SJST @ NMST
would only be interested in SF @ -4 and NMST at +7 or better....

Rice @ UTEP
Cant figure out whythis keeps dropping....the way I see itUTEP under -10 is cheap...to be determined...

Play: Utep -9.5 -110(2x)