Monday Nite Football

Okay so the Seattle Seahawks w/o Alexander or Hasselback hosting the Oakland Raiders fails to qualify as the marquee matchup America needs to tune in. Its still an opportunity to figure out thses Oakland Raiders. Now my first point will be dont get overly wrapped up in the fact that this game opened @ +9 and dropped to +7. This happened IMO for one reason. It was thought that Shaun Alexander would return here and when that was ruled out BOOKS adjusted the spread. There wasnt some heavy hitters dropping wads of dough on any side it was a simple adjustment. Some people say dont look at line moves but I disagree. Dont get overly wrapped in line moves but try to figure out or understand why a line is moving. Sure its an educated guess but so is attempting to put a poker player on a hand. If you are truly good at what you do most of the time you have the correct idea of what is going on.

The major difference bewteen these teams is simple. One team (Oakland) appears to play defense every week while the other doesnt (Seattle). One team has a decent offense even with 2 starst missing (seattle) while the other is bottom of the NFL (oakland). Now last week Oak 's D played well actually great till real late in the 3rd Q. I am guessing with the offense struggling all game it started to tire. On Pitts first 8 drives Oak held them to 5 three and outs , 2 six plays drives that netted 5 yards and 22 yards(which pitt had the ball to start in Oak territory) and one drive where they had solid field poistion (own 42) and moved 12 plays 47 yds for a FG. They went 39 plays for 78 yards!! Unfortunately Oak was running 41 plays for 109 yards. The offense only had the ball for anout 19 + minutes of the first 43 minutes. Afterthis point Pitt went 34 plays for 270 yards but self destructed a few times inbewteen where as Oak offense in the 4th Q went 10 plays for 9 yards threw a pick and held the ball for 4:30 minutes.

So basically a big key tonite is OAKLANDS offense. They need to pressure a defense that has allowed 161 points in the past 5 games and they need to keep there defense fresh for the second half. It appears Lamont Jordan is healthy again and get this Art Shell praised Jerry Porter for his effort in his return to the ballclub. They have the weapons now but can the OLprotect and can Walter make the throws?

I think if you watched the oak / Den game the Raiders faced a top notch defense and had afew opps to score...missed a 53 yd fg , picked off near the end zone startting at the opp28 , fumbled inside opp 30 and so on. The played @ SF a team more there level and led 13-7 at half but were sloppy as could be. In the 3rd Q already with 13 points on the board and running plays inside the opp 40 Walter was picked twice! So that 13-7 lead quickly become a 21-13 SF lead. Then 4thQ they get a gift and have the ball at SF 8 and fumble the opp to tie away. A very sloppy game and SF had the ball inside the Oakland 45 all 4times in the 4th Q and managed just 6 points showing the Defense didnt quit. Go back early to the Balt game they literally handed balt a chance to beat them down and the Ravens couldnt...final is misleading. First 2 possession oak fumbles around there 35, 30 yard line. Two drives later , 12 plays and 31 yards and its ONLY 9-0. Its 9 cause balt started the game deep in Oak territory and went 8 plays for 25 yards and 3 points. Late 2nd Q they finally cut it to 9-3 but let the game slip away when we three minutes they allow BAlt to drive 65 yards for a TD before the half. After those 3 FGS to open the
game Balt had gone 3 and out on 3 occassions and managed 5 net yards. Third Q starts they exchange punts after 3 and outs but Oak gets picked off leaving Balt at the Oak 32. Now balt manages negative yardage and punts!! They pin Oak back and later get a safety for an 18-3 lead. Despite good starting field position again after the free kick (own 43) they punt again. On the 8th play of a 59 yd drive and inside the Balt 30 they fumble... the fumble almost goes the distance but Ravens start around the Oak 10 but again cant move the ball settle for three. Now early 4th Q and its 21-3 they both exchange INTS...however Oak gets it at the ravens 41 and manages 3 pts for 21-6. They make balt punt and down 21 -6 move the ball inside the 20 of Balt but cant convert on 4th down with 4 minutes to play and ravens go 5 plays for 81 yards in 2 minutes to ice it.

What I am getting at is the defense has held up in all 3 road games with the exceptions of when it stays on the field to long but thats every defense. SO the key is simply Oaklands offense moving teh ball versus a talented but struggling SEA defense. Is the so far anemic offense of oakland the answer? Certainly could be. I guess the scary part is Oak is middle of the pack running the ball and Sea is middle of the pack at stopping the run. While Oak defense is dead last throwing it and Sea defense is bottom 5 defening it. Is the Sea run defense better though cause people choose to just throw it against them? Whats key from oak standpoint is teher pass defense playing very well and Seneca Wallace looking very susceptibile to throwing INT's so far. Now Sea has allowd 4.8 YPC at home to Minny(thanks to Taylors 95 yard run) , Ari and NYG.

The more I look at this the harder this game gets ..if Sea is healthy I would say about -12 here. There not healthy there not playing defense and I would say more like -5.5 here.. Thing is Oakland has a couple of safties listed as questionable in Cooper and Huff meaning Gibson would start. ty Poole there nickel back is banged up. So there secondary which has been key is a question mark. There LG Sims could miss and withGallery inconsistent that could make that side of the line an issue. Sea looks like Spencer and Locklear will miss but Womack and Asworth arecapable replacements on the OL. Seattle are starting 3-0 is now just 1-3 past 4 thanks to a long FG by Brown in STL at the end ofregulation. While Oak won a game they probably didnt deserve to win last week its still a 2gm streak which breeds positive momentum.

Sea only scored 21 on offense last week and I think thats where they would end up tonite. They couldnt run the ball again and allowed 500 yards of offense to KC. they were only 10-10 versus Minny at the half before Hasselback left the game. really to me Oakland seems to be a watered down version of Minnesota. The Vikes defense is better overall and there offense are reliant on the RB and short passes.

I love OAK confidence heading into this game , lovethe fact the QB Walter is saying how embarrassed he is by last weeks play of the offense and the X-factor Jerry Porter brings to thsi team...Sea hasnt stopped the pass AND Porter& Moss are a nice duo , so can Walter get them the ball??

Basically I played +9 -116 (5x) on Monday of last week. I will keep the play but would be concerned and look to middle if this game comes of the key number of 7. There has been a slight flow of Oak money and I want to see what this game does closer to gametime..now the total I was thinking Over but a strange hard move from 37 to 35 has me digging deeper and watching cause I felt this game would see 38 points...

I'll be updating this matchup...

Okay we have a reason for the total move......severe wind and rain in Seattle throughout the nite. In a game that was seeing a nice amount of over money and being a MNF event which almsot always sees more over flow its telling IMO how hard this line has moved down...also like the Raiders more cause of the weather since they are a run offense...and pts will be scarce

So a sloppy game I a took a shot at under 35 -110 (3x) Under 21 -108 Seattle team (2x). Which if something changes I can always hedge out of.

Yesterdays Week 9 recap:
Redskins +3.5 -110 (8x) & Under 41.5 -110 (3x) ML +160 (1.5x) +13.40
TB Bucs ML -108 (5x) -5.40
Bills -3-120 (4x) +4.00
Ravens -2.5 -130 (4x) & -2.5 -110 (1x) +5.00
Lions +6 -110 (3x) & Over 47 -110 (3x) -0.30(so close)
Dolphins +14 -120 (3x) & Under 37.5 -110 (5x) -2.50(painful to lose when I had the game pegged)
Texans +7 .5 -120 1st H(1.5x) & +13 -116 (1.5x) +3.00
STL ML -138 (3x) -4.14 (only dumb play IMO)
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) +5.00
Over 41 -106 SD (7x) & Cle +13.5 -110 (5x) +12.00
Steelers -2.5 -110 (5x) Loss -5.50
Played NE -2.5 -120 (8x) & Under 49 -120 (3x) & Under 24 1st H -104 (1x) -7.64

Net : +24.56 but -7.64 @ nite so +16. 92 all day( +16.10 with everything)

Team totals -4.76(1st losing day on teams in awhile)
Over 26-108 ATL (1.5x) L
Und 22.5 +110 KC (1.5x) L
Und 19 -108 Cincy (1x) L
Und 28 -121 NYG (1x) W
Under 25 -111 Chi (1x) W
Over 25.5 -128 NE (2x) L

Teasers +6.00
Under 58 KC , Under 51.5 Cincy, Over 31 Buff (3x) W
Under 58 KC , Und 51.5 Cincy , Undre 51 Dal (3x) W

2nd H -2.06
Ov 19.5 -111 Pitt (2x) Win
Pitt -7.5 +219 (1x) L
Under 19.5 -102 Chi (3x) L