Friday NBA Thoughts

This early in the NBA season its hard to writeup plays cause really your basically playing perception versus a spread. There is no data to really go off and this past offseason seems to have more player movement then I can remember in recent seasons. So far my NBA sides and totals have been either dead on or way off. It seems that I have lost sides and totals in about 3 games this year which have killed my overall performance..I win a strong play its +6 I lose 2 plays in 1 game its usually -8 something. Opening Nite I was -15 x but because I had both Miami and the over , the next nite ran the table early about +18 but lose the last 5 sides and totals finish -3 but do well with parlays and team totals, last nite have Dal and the under...
been real streaky so far but this is a new season and a learning process.

Sides & Totals -22.78
Team Totals +5.00
Parlays + 5.84
2nd H +1.00

Friday Nite
Early starts 7 PM tips:
Over 207 -107 Milw & Tor (3x)
Gonna wait to see how far this drops. What I like is Toronto looking to play up tempo basketball versus a Buck team who has struggled with defense . We have the subpot of TJ vs Villanueva in the new enviroments. Personally I want to play the Raptors but on the fence.. In the openers Tor managed 94 shots and Milw 93 but need to do better from 3 pt land and getting to the FT line(which Milw allowed DET to do).

Over 191 -109 Orlando & Philly (reduced size) (1x)
I had a change on this cause I didnt realize Orlando went to the line 42 times last game and shot 35 of 59 thats gonna be tough to duplicate. Philly has to see if anyone else is clicking besides AI right now as Webber really struggled. I guess you can figure CHI was tired which led to poor defense and alot of fouls which becomes a high FG percentage for Orlando and alot of trips to the line....Now I am question if these teams do better then low 90's. Also gonna ride PHILLY 1st H +3 -105 (2x)

Over 195 -110 Indiana & NO (3x) Over 194 +101 (2x) now 192
Looking to continue to play Indiana overs early as I did on opening nite. A very different makeup with Indiana who also now looks to push the ball. NO missed 15 FT's the opener and still managed 91 points...expecting a close game and better FT shootings should put NI into the upper 90;s instead of low 90's...have to like Indiana here as Boston also missed a ton of FTs versus NO and would rank IND higher then Boston.

Det @ Boston
Passing at the moment. I dont think DET played that poorly in the opener but smae could be same said for Boston. Basically two teams looking for identities and to establish themselves.
Tends to be a high scoring game so I played the Over 193 -115 (2x)...

Under 204 Atl & NYK -101 (3x)
Hawks lost Harrington in the offseason and his replacement in the lineup Marvin Williams got hurt in camp. That means Rookie Shelden Williams gets the nod and he is limited offensively. Speedy Claxton was also injured in camp and never got in shape. He also played poorly in the opener. NYK defeated or outlasted Memphis in Triple OT after blowing yet another lead......good 1st H team and great 2nd H fade IMO....until they prove diifferently. NY shot fairly well but still ended regulation with just 89 after a slow 4th Q. Francis and Frye struggled offensively while Q probably played his best game as Knick.....would love to take +3 with NY here. Problem is did triple OT leave them dead legged so early in the year?? Not sure what to expect.....

NJNets +4 .5+100 (3x)
I am sure this a popular play after Miami's loss on opening nite. I just dont see any excuse for there play. They spoke about how they wanted to do it again and they looked awful in the game....they couldnt hit anything and until they make some shots outside of Wade or Shaq I will fade...like the over but dont like taking overs afterteams score less then 70 previous game.

Charlotte @ Memphis
I dont know what to expect from either. Memphis showed alot IMO versus NY and the Bobcats unraveled without Wallace in the game. Dont see much scoring from either.....going UNDER
189.5 -111 (2x)

Cavs +5.5 -104 (3x)
This is a play simply fading SA in a back to back situation where they performed poorly last year. Parker with a gimpy ankle probably could use a day off. Not to mention they played a tough game in Dallas. Despite prior struggles in SA look for LEbron to keep it close here.

Kings +6 -110 (3x)
Sac lost Bibby and collapsed against Minny. Tough spot for Bulls already playing 3rd in 4 nites. Looking at the UNDER 185..

Over 199.5 -112 Denver(3x)
They are going to shot alot this Nugget team they just need to make some...

Jazz +7 -111 (8x) & over 211 -112 (3x)
Suns playing 3rd in 4 nite and versus a team that boasts size on them. Bad spot should be a battle and like the new look offense from Utah.

Sonics +4.5 -113 (5x) ML +163 (1x)
Fading LAL now that they are chalk and SEA off a SU loss as 8 pt favs. Bynum hurting now could leave the middle open...

Warriors -9.5 -109 (4x)
Wanted this @ -8.5. Blazers are young and Warriors have owned them last 5 meetings. There is no reason to believe that will change.

Team totals
Over 102.5 Nuggets -119 (2x)
Over 102.5 Jazz-105 (1.5x)