Week 11 CFB

This Weeks Plays:

Weekday-
Under 54 -110 Toledo (2x) Win

Under 52 -110 Rutgers & Louisville (4x) Loss & Und 27-120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Rutgers +7.5 -115 (8x) Win ML +209(1x) Win RU +3 -120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Under 50 -110 BYU / Wyoming (3x) Loss & Und 22.5 -111 2nd H (1x) Loss

Under 48 -110 Cent Mich / West Mich (3x) middle Over 46-109 (3x) late change xxx
Under 53 -120 UAB (3x) PUSH (middled the wrong one I guess)
2nd H +3 -128 (2x) UTEP Win

Team totals
Under Lville 28.5 -110 (1.5x) W
Over 14 -140 Buffalo (1.5x) W

Under 59.5 -110 Minnesota & Mich State (3x) Win +3.
Michigan State +3 -120 (8x) Loss -9.6
North Carolina +14 -115 (3x) Win +3.
Teaser Purdue +9 / Under 53 (3x) Loss -3.60
Purdue +141 ML (1.5x) Win +2.11
Iowa +1.5 -102 (5x) ML +118 (5x) Loss (ouch ) -10.10
Auburn -11.5 -105 (3x) Loss -3.05
West Virginia -17 -110 (5x) Win+5.00
Over 59 -109 Baylor & Okl State (3x) Win +3.00
Over 51.5 -110 East Car & Marshall (3x) Win+3.
Over 51.5 -139 Vandy (3x) middled Under 55 -110 (1.5x) Win +1.50
Kentucky ML -115 (5x) Win +5.00
Over 53 -114 Tulane (5x)
Over 56-105 Rice & Tulsa (3x)
Smu +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +141 (1x)
Northwestern +23.5 -110 (3x)
South Carolina (buy) +14 -120 (3x) middled Fla -12-105 (3x)
Over 44 -110 Florida (3x)
Indiana +19.5 -110 (3x)
Over 51 Ind -110 (3x)
Arizona+14 -107 (3x)
Neb ML -114 (3x) ML -110 (2x)

Over 54 -102 Notre Dame (5x)
Nevada -16.5 -117 1st Half (3x)
New Mex +7.5 -110 (3x)
Under 58 -105 San Jose State (3x)
San Jose +14 -110 (3x)
Oregon State ML -122 (3x)
BC 1st H -17 -104 (3x)
Under 53 -111 Oklahoma(5x)
Tex Tech +9 -110 (3x)
Under 47 -105 Arkansas (3x)
Bama +18.5 -111 (3x)
Over 39.5 LSU (lean)
UCF +1 -105 (5x)
Kansas State +17.5 -116 (3x) middle w/ Texas waiting
Penn State 1st H -20.5 -122 (2x)
Over 24 -105 1st H BC (2x)
ASU ML -105(3x)
Hawaii -21 1st H -115 (3x)
Under 77-110 (3x)
FSU -5 -105 1st H (2x)

Team Totals-(all 1x unless noted)
Under 0.5 +254 Temple
Over 36.5 -119 BC
Over 24.5 -119 KentuckyWin
Over 30.5 -117 Navy Win
Under 14.5 Georgia -118 Loss
Over 10.5 +103 Alabama
Under 10.5 -130 Stanford
Under 30.5 -116 Minnesota Loss
Over 27.5 -132 Mich State Loss
Over 32.5 -105 Notre Dame
Over 15.5 -115 Zona
Under 35.5 -108 Boise State
Over 24 -108 Pittsburgh
Under 17.5 -108 UNLV

Teasers
FSU , Notre Dame , South Fla (4x)
Auburn -1.5 , Utah , -1.5 , ND , -1 (3x) L

ML Parlay
Ark ML -222 & FSU -330 (3x)


2nd H
Over 25.5 -114 Kentucky (2x) W
Tulane +151 ML (1x)

Thoughts-
~ Louisville @ RU - If you look at stats and boxscores it will probably leave you hard pressed to see the value in Rutgers. I for one complained about there incredibily easy early season schedule. What really changed my opinion is how they played @ Pitt. Before that game Tyler Palko had been playing some real solid ball along with the rest of his tyeam since the Mich State game. RU ran right over them and shut down there pasing game. When it came time for Teel to do something he made a few plays late. Rutgers isnt bringing sexy back by any means. There playing good hard nosed , fundamental football. Tonite is the biggest game in the past 20 or so years for this program sort of like it was for Louisville last week. Thats a key diffference as last week Louisville was the team with all that energy behind them and tonite they will be fcaing that team. Also note Lville hasnt really had a tough road game. Its biggest test was Syracuse and while one could argue they used a vanilla playbook before WVU it really was significantly better talentwise. They didnt score till about 5 minutes before the half and the 28-13 final saw Kolby Smith run on ein with about a minute to play to ice the game. The Dome is a tough place to play but you gotta believe tonite will be alot tougher. Louisville allowed four 80+ yards TD drives something WVU really hadnt been doing. They had really benefited from short fields combined with there speed to get quick scores. So I could see RU grinding it out vs this defense with Ray Rice and Bryan Leonard. On offense last week Lville agianst what I would call a so-so defense had struggles putting the ball in the end zone with 3 short Fgs. It will only getharder here especially on the road. They benefited from momentum plays to open the 3rd Q a Slayton fumble returned for a TD and a short punt returned for a TD. The talent edge is on Lville side but they have been inconsistent on offense and IMO unproven on the road.

I fully expect a low scoring grind it out type game here. The way I see it Lville probably should only be about a FG fav here. However offense is sexy and so is points thats where RU comes up short in the image department. The Lville offense wasnt as explosive as made out to be last week IMO and that was a home game not a road game. No one believed( I did) in Lville last week at home but by beating a WVU team that had one quality win (Georgia in the Bowl last year) they suddenly become national contender material...I dont see it.

~ Buff @ Akron - I would like to fade Buffalo off abig home upset and Akron off a flat game vs BG. However with the new QB I think its best to stay away from a side despite my Akron lean. I am truly disappointed I missed the total would have loved to play the over @ 44.5 even 46 but now at 50 its way past where I saw value.

~ Wyoming @ BYU - I think Wyoming can hang here. There defense especially versus the pass has been solid enough granted they havent played a team like BYU. There offense has struggled on the road at places like UVA and TCU but suprisingly moved the ball @ Syracuse. Look for Wyoming to attempt control TOP and run the ball. Doesnt appear to be an ideal situation weather wise to throw the ball. Wyoming has not won @ NYU since 1987 needs a W to bvecome bowl eligible. Just looking for more info on this game...

~ WMU @CMU - While the offenses have improved its mainly IMO due to competition. With West mich struggling lately I think there is some value in them. With this number now dropping I may look to middle though as this how 24-21 (23-20)written all over it. The only WMU road game that saw any offense was when they played @ Ball State which is self explanatory.

~ UTEP @ UAB - Clearly UTEP is the better team here and dsperate for a win but that lackluster effort vs Rice scares me. UAB IMO hasnt played well at home losing to Marshall , beating a horrible Memphis team by 6 , losing in OT To Miss State, and beating Troy(big deal) and a solid 5 pt win vs ECU. Like alot of this midweek games again I like the Under since UAB has had trouble on offense...

Comments to come.........

Noon starts -
~ Minny @ Mich State - last home games for the Spartans against a Minny team 0-4 on the road who hasnt been able to score away . You could say Mich State has quit but I will say if they quit why did Purdue need a late FG to pull out the win last week? Stanton's last home game I believe. Minny has wins at home agaisnt Temple , ND State , and now Indiana....simple overreaction to Minny exploding last week.

~ Purdue @ Ill - The Illini playing better and Purdue is inconsisntent but not sure they deserve to be 3 pt dogs. Ill only has the 3 pt win @ Mich State really to speak off and that was the week after the ND historic comeback on them. They blew a lead to Indiana , losy to Ohio U and Cuse at home...a close game to flat Ohio State team....weighing on bettors minds.. Illinois 5-0 ATS catching 17 or more but 0-4 in other roles...

~ GT @ UNC - Never a big fan of GT as fav since the have proven to be inconsistent in the Ball ERA. However I think UNC has shown some improvement the past 2 games and they hung with GT last year. Dailey is the key here...

~Cincy @ WVU- Think people are down on WVU after the Ville game. However now that Ville has been defeated this game is HUGE for them as they still face Rutgers to end the season. Cincy has played some great defense but WVU speed kills and they IMO wont score enough to cover. Remember that Cincy caught 25 @ Ville earlier and played well but they wont be sneaking up on anyone now. WVU handled them 38-0 on the road last year. Mountaineers are rested and while they may be down hopefully the timeoff combined with Rutgers upsetting Louisville helps them refocus.

~Wisky @ Iowa - Iowa won the past 4 years in this series including in Madison last season. This is senior day @ Iowa and Stocco if he plays will be hurting with a seperated shoulder and brusied ribs. Just think its a grat situational play after Iowa lost SU at home to Northwestern. Logic tells you how can you take Iowa here BUT you have to BUY low always and Wisky really hasnt beaten anyone to speak of...okay Penn State buttell me how the Lions are gonna wina road game with taht offense? You cant so not that impressive.......

~Baylor @ Oklahoma State - If Bell was healthy I would play this heavier. The Bears will again be exposed by the Ok State air attack and should score enough versus a medicore defene that has had it sown issues.

~Georgia @ Auburn - Third consecutive SEC road game for the DAWGS is not a good spot. Auburn has some banged up starts but they will play. Dont see Georgia breaking 14 pts here..

~ Vandy @ Kentucky - Simply like Kentucky being able to win 2 close SEC games and pulling off an upset then follwoing it up with another home game. Kentucky was able to win @ vandy last year.

~ Houston @ SMU - The Cougars have some impressive wins but on the road they lost So Miss and only beat Rice by 1 in the opener. Willis has a 20-4 TD/Int ratio and the mustangs are sneaking up on people......

~ Ohio State @ Nwestern - We all know whats on deck....Michigan vs ohio State so fading both a week before

~ Cal @ Arizona- Probably a bad decision but a PAC 10 game with a 2 TD home dog...

~ Neb @ A&M - Think A&M will be down here after a close loss. Nebraska redeemed themselves smokingMissouri. A&M cant throw enough to exploit the NEB defensive weakness.