Saturday College Football Thoughts

Already lost a small play on the Under in Boise State and have Louisville ML (10x) and Under 57 (5x). Really havent decided if I will touch the Friday AF @ Army matchup yet.

On to Saturday afternoon and the NOON starts ~

UVA @ FSU
This might at first glance look like a big number but despite FSU struggles they have lost 2 tough games at home to BC and Clemson. I think the UVA offense made progress when Sewell became the starter but last 2 weeks they havent shown me much. Now they play @ FSU a team desperate for a win , looking for revenge and getting a UVA squad which never travels well to Seminole country..UVA will struggle to run the ball here and thats a big dimension of there offense. Dont see this UVA team scoring more then 14 here . Hopefully Antone Smith and Lorenzo Booker can repeat there solid performance here and Xavier Lee looked solid @ Maryland.

Play:. FSU -12 -110 (3x) Win 33-0 +3.00

Ball State @ Michigan
While its tempting to take the points or the Under here I just cant. Ball State just could hand Michigan alot of short fields and even the most vanilla of Michigans offense plays could cause trouble cause of the talent gap. Ball State was able to backdopor Purdue earlier this year but the Wolverine defense is stout and wont allow much if anything

Missouri @ Nebraska
I was thinking of taking Nebraska here but I tend to not like to fade a team I played and lost with the week before so I was being cautious. Then today Dr.Bob comes out with Missouri as one of his plays and knocks teh line down to 4.5 or 5. Missouri has shown the ability to play well on the road winning @ TT and losing by 6 @ A&M teams that are in the same neighborhood as Nebraska. Still though Nebraska looks attractive to me with Missouri missing ist best defensive player as does the Under 50.5.
Play: Under 24.5 2nd H -112 (2x) Win 21 points +2.00

Maryland @ Clemson
Well I hopped on the Tigers at -17 this morning only to watch Dr.Bob release it as a strong play and see it basiocally settle @ -20. My opinion was Marylands defense was worse then the PPG it had allowed and just surrended 475 yards to FSU at home nearly double there offense output. They also have been getting destroyed on the ground see WVU 360 yards rushing and the following numbers vs quality teams. Clemson has not allowed any team to score more then 9 points at home versus them and held Calvin Johnson catchless! Terps will struggle to score here and I see no reason why the Tigers dont get 35 here.......thought about the Under but really 47 is to low looking at what Maryland allows......

Play: Clemson -17 -104 (4x) SU Loss 13-12 -4.16
- Now its 19.5 and -20 and might drop down some. I would play it up to -20 or even -20.5....

Penn State @ Wisky
The Nittany Lion offense continues to struggle and this is two tough defenses battling eachother. Thought a fair line was -7 so really no interest in a side if I had to guess would say Wisky but I dont have to!! Looking at the UNDER if it creeps into the low 40's....23-13 type game... blew this onje 13-3 Wisky

Northwestern @ Iowa
Think Tate returns here after Iowa cruised to 10 pt win versus N.Illinois. They got a big lead and coasted. The WIldcat offense runs into another tough defense and 10 points even with Bachar @ QB looks like a mountain....I think weather and lack og interst from Michigan had more to do with the 17 points they allowed last week. I look for Iowa to crack 30 poinst here....

Play : Iowa -19 -110 (3x) SU Loss 21-7 -3.30

Pitt @ South Florida
The Panthers are off a home loss to Rutgers and USF off an pathetic offensive effort @ Cincy. Looking for a defensive battle and think the home team could hang.

Play: Under 44.5 -105 (3x) & USF +5 -110 (2x) win SU 22-12 +5.00

Baylor @ Tex Tech
Shaun Bell is done for the year and that makes me want to stay away from this game. I will look at the TTteam over whne it comes out ...

Play : TT over 36.5 -108 (2x) & TT -9 -110 1st H (2.5x) Win +4.50

Indiana @Minnesota
Indiana has played some decent ball lately however even with Minnys struggles this line is to low. Remember that versus a dead Mich State team they were basically TD home dogs , they were TD dogs @ Illinois as well....Minnesota with its struggles has played decent defense and Cupito should be able to throw on Indiana. Both teams were taken to shed verus Ohio State but I dont think Ind can win this game on the road..after the home upset of Mich State.

Play : Minnesota -5.5 -110 (5x) Win 62-20 +5.00

Miss State @ Bama
Right now Bama has struggled and failed to cover versus Vandy , Hawaii , Duke and Miss at home so why would I want to lay chalk with them ? Miss State just went to the wire @ Georgia and home versus Kentucky. Henig is making plays in the passing game which is good since the Bulldogs wont run on Bama. Not great value but .. was eyeing the over 39 yesterdand forgot about it...

Play: Miss State +15.5 -110 (2x)

Florida @ Vandy
I cant figure out this line and cant figure why it jumped from 14 to 17 so I will stay away!

1PM
Central Michigan @ Temple
The inprovement in Temple was evident to me inthe past few weeks. Which led me to playing Temple and even the ML last week. While CMU is a better team then BG it still baffles me they could make Temple such big dogs here..

Play: Temple +19 -110 (4x) bad sign now @ +20 / so stupid should have played CMU -10 1st Half! Holy Backdoor!! 42-26 Final +4.00

Navy @ Duke
Both teams have failed to slow anyone recently on defense. Duke should struggle versus the option and there offense has shown life recently....

Play: Over 47 -104 Duke / Navy (3x) Win +3.00 38-13

Georgia @ Kentcuky
I cant trust the Bulldogs but had this at more like -8 so no value in the dog either.....pass

Bowl Green @ Akron
Waiting to see if this gets cheaper but think -9 is fair. BG has been struggling on offense for awhile now and both teams off bad losses away. See the BG offense struggling to get 14 again...leaning Akron

Kent State @ Buffalo
No interest / opinion

Ohio U @ East Mich
No interest / opinion

Kansas @ Iowa State
Was looking at playing KU +1 then Dr.Bon pushed it to -2 or better. Kansas has played better on the road IMO and looks like theyhave another new QB. Iowa State hasnt shown anything at all this season....

Play: Kansas ML -120 (4x)

Ark State @ Auburn
No interest...

UNC @ Notre Dame
Not crazy about laying this with ND since there offense hasnt really been in sync. NC has been decent against the pass so I am hoping they limit big plays and let ND work for there points. ND defense has been better then expected and UNC offense is in disarray all season..

Play : UNC +27 -110 (2x) & Under 52 -105 (2x)

Hawaii @ Utah State
The rainbows are en fuego but can they be trusted in cold weather and with some injuries to there defense? If anything I play the rainbows 1st H.....

Play: Under 65.5 -110 (2x)

TCU @ UNLV
No interest / opinion

SDST @ Wyoming
Probbaly dont touch this buts it Wyoming or nothing just cant trust the Cowboy offense...

3:30 's

Wash @ Oregon
You wonder what toll back to back OT losses will tale on the Huskies . Just a game better to stay away from....

Miami -Ohio @ West Michigan
No interest / opinion

Tulsa @ Houston
Expect Tulsa to be -3 here so not touching a side. Think this should be a shootout with Smith vs Kolb......

Play: Over 56 -105 (3x) & Tulsa ML -119 (3x)

Purdue @ Mich State
Cant touch the Spartans and how could I go over when Purdue has scored 3 points total past 2 games at home!!! Would love to go under but Mich State would have to try then...

Ohio State @ Illinois
Illinois has coverd all 4 games when getting 17 or more. This is alot of chalk and the Illinois defense is underrated......

Play: Illinois +27 -110 (3x)

FAU @ Mid Tenn State
Would take the home team -11 if anything but this line got pounded down from 14....

LSU @ Tenny
The Vols lost Coker and now Ainge hurt his ankle last week. They were unable to run the ball vs South Car and wont versus LSU. Which means there offense lies in Ainge hands but gimpy ankle...LSU has lost 2 tough road games this year @ Auburn and @ FLA were they couldt make plays on offfense late. Difference here is Tenny DEF isnt the same caliber as those.. For those who wonder why LSU is favored go back to FLA laying -4.5 in Tenny. A bit high but they won SU so -3 was correct here IMO...Tenny struggled at home recently....

Play: Bought LSU -2.5 -120 (5x)

East Car @ UCF
The Golden Eagles havent played any defense of late but 55 seems high...

ULL @ Troy
For some reason I dont see much offense

Play : Under 43 +102(2x)

ASU @ Oregon State
I have to fade the Beavers here with a banged up RB and QB off the win versus USC.....

Play: ASU +3 -105 (3x)

Arizona @ Wash State
No interest / opinion

Nevada @Idaho
Dont like playing a team back from hawaii but Idaho was playing well before that beating. Nevada just 1-3 SU away and only a 3 pt fav @ UNLV where they cruised...double digit chalk seems heavy...

Play : Idaho +10.5 -115 (2x)

BYU @ Colorado State
Cant see how this line is +17 maybe +14 but 17......I have this closer to -13. Colorado State defense is decent and BYU's road high is 33 (31 , 23 and 13 in the others)....

Play : Colorado State +17 -105 (3x)

The 7 Pm starts and after
GaTech @ NCSt
We have GT coming off a nice win at home versus Miami and the Wolfpack who continue to befuddle the world dropping 3 straight after 2 home upsets. The key is HOME UPSETS. For whatever reason NCST under Amato has adpoted the identity of a team who plays better when less is expected (IE: as a DOG). Now some will say NUT they were dogs past 2 road games @ Maryland and @ UVA. The problem with that is they were away and less then FG dogs which means technically they are better then there opponents BUT more important the points didnt matter they had to win to cover the point spread...Not really the same situation as Home dog of +5 where they need to compete...these are the games where yo see favs winning by 1 or 2 points...if they do win...

Bottomline is the situation has a POOR FAV in GT as road chalk versus a GOOD HOME DOG in NCST. I think the young QB of the Wolfpack wille perform better at home and the tandem of Baker and Brown can do enough on the ground as GT has allowed some yardage lately on the ground...Wolfpack have 2 upstes athome and 2 FG losses to decent squads in WF and Akron. if GT played to there full capabilities instead of there usual inconsistencies the Wolfpack could be in trouble BUT that rarely seems to happen...also Travis Bell tends to reflect his teammates inconcistent play with inconsistent FG kicking!

N.C. State is not a team to be overlooked as it has won its last four games against ranked opponents, including victories over Boston College and Florida State this season.

Play: NCST +6 -120 (3x)

BC @ Wake Forest

Personally I understand why this game opened at 6. We had Wake recently win a close game @ NCST in which they were 3 point dogs( tends to mean equal strength) and awhile back BC traveled to NCST as 6 point favs but lost on a last minute TD by 2 points after a Ryan fumble...so that number made sense.

Now we see 3.5 and I have to be real close to laying it with BC. Two very good defenses square off here but while WF has home field BC clarly has the better offense. BC has allowed 22 point since that Wolfpack loss with2 shutouts at home and 3pt game vs VaTech...they should keep the WF runninggame grounded leaving it Skinner to make plays. There FG kicker isprobably the most potent offensive weapon with the ability to knock throughh 50 + yards on a consistent basis....if BC doesnt make mistakes they should control the game and win a low scoring battle around 20-13. Waiting but think BC here but def looking at this UNDER 40...

Play: BC -3-120 (2x) & Under 42 -113 (2x)


Oklahoma State @ Texas

Tough matchup here. I think this line should be closer to -15 not -18 so leaning towards the DOG since pass defense is giving UT trouble despite there 2nd H shutdown of TT. Reid and Co can score but they struggle to stop anyone.....UT low offensive output at home is 37 vs Iowa State and they sat on the ball late...so they should crack 40 here and I cant see why OK St doesnt top 24...

Leaning Ok St +18 but really like the over 62.5(42-21 does the trick) but waiting to see if it gets cheaper

Play: Over 61.5 -110 (3x)

USC @ Stanford
The Cardinal offense is non-existent now that Edwards is done for the year. All season they had struggled with WR issues and have only scored more then 10 points ONCE this year. The 1st Half @ SJST with Edwards at QB and some heakthy Wideouts they put up 34 in the 6 1/2 games since they had 39 total points. I 'll say that Stanford scores 7 but only cause they get a late gift.....Stanford D will eventually tire leading to some easy scores for the Trojans looking to bounce back....38-7? 38-3?35-3 something along those lines.......USC 1st H -17 +100 look sinteresting as well

HAve to think and watch this one...USC -17 +100 1st H looks enticing as does the Under...

Play: USC 1st H -17 +111 (2x) & Under 50-105 (2x)

LaTech @ NTexas

Probably staying away from this but 2 bad teams I think you have to take the DOG here. Outside of a home upset of SMU NT hasnt even been competitive most of the time...

Tulane @ Marshall
Would think if Tulane was healthy @ WR this would be a shootout and the over is teh way to go but they could be w/o 2 key WR's . Ricard can sling it and sudenly Marshall has offense while the Green Wave havent slowed anyone yet....HAve to better understand teh WR picture @ Tulane but did lean Tulane but really the over 57..

Arkansas @ South Carolina
Bad line alert...this game should at worst be a PK...what has ARK done to deserve road chalk? A FLUKE UPSET of Auburn the week before the AUB/FLA? They crushed 3 worthless squads at home and thats about it. They played @ Vandy early and struggled this is a much tougher venue. SC IMO gave Tenny all it couldhandle after getting off the wrong foot with a Pick 6 early....SC gave Auburn and Tenny games both top 10 teams at home......all ARK has done is win @ AUB.....they barely edged BAMA at home in OT and after that @ AVndy is ther enext toughest game...we wont mention USC.....Let ARK show me they are for real.....

Play: South Carolina -3 -120 (3x) probably ML as well

VaTech @ Miami
Real simple overeraction the Hokie upset at home over Clemson. No way should they be favored on the road in the Orange Bowl...think about how they played @BC. The Hokies wont run and they havet shown teh ability to consistent pass with Glennon under center..bad line!

Play : Miami +3 -118 (avg price) (10x) ML +124 (4x)

Oklahoma @ A&M
This line should be a PK IMO... cant see OU as being 6 or so points better on aneutral field without AP. There defense is vastily improving though. The A& M defense is average but right OU is depending on field position to get poinst on the board...think A&M 23-20 here..

Leaning either A&M +3 or better , ML and the UNDER for sure

Play: Under 47 -110 (3x) ML +122 (1.5x)

UCLA @ Cal

No opinion

SJST @ NMST
would only be interested in SF @ -4 and NMST at +7 or better....

Rice @ UTEP
Cant figure out whythis keeps dropping....the way I see itUTEP under -10 is cheap...to be determined...

Play: Utep -9.5 -110(2x)