Sunday Week 9 NFL & NBA included

In a backwards mood so starting with the last game first......the Monday Nighter OAK @ SEA

Raiders +9 -116 (5x) probably will middle this great chance of SEA by 7
Basically Oakland plays defense week in week out and Seattle has stopped anyone in over a month...161 pts last 5 wtha low of 28 allowed. I thought Seneca Wallace played fairly well but his ack of experience still leaves him mistake prone. I 'll give Seneca the nod over Walter though but at best the RB are equal(actually like OAKs better). Darrell Jackson has missed a couple of pratices and that puts him in question. Lechler is a solid punter and that should help. The key is the offense of Oakland not giving up field position like they did @ SF and @ Baltimore..

Patriots -2.5 -120 (8x) & Over 25.5 team -128 (2x)
Well I faded Indy last week and they hung around in Denver now another tough matchup @ NE. Remember how Indy smoked them when the NE secondary depleted well that was the only time Peyton Manning won in NE. NE has a significant edge in DEFENSE. The colts have been unable to stop opposing RB's and here comes the duo of Dillon and Maroney. Brady has the passing game clicking now iwth 4 options @ WR ~ Caldwell , Gabriel , Brown and Jackson plus TE Watson. This team is starting to click as evidence by the MNF rout. The colts secondary has issues at safety and if Diem is OUT on the OL there will be a rookie with zero NFL starts in his place. While many wont believe this cause DEN won @ NE I think on a neutral field NE is -1.5 pts stronger...

4 PMs

Denver @ Pitt
So the public doesnt understand this line. real simple last year in the playoffs Broncos were -3 at home vs Pitt and got stampeded...that means if Pitt was home they would be at least -3...whats really changed for these teams? Denver added Walker but has Tatum Bell banged up. For Pitt the lost a couple of players here and there * the Bus) but the difference is Big Bens health and his mistakes. He single handly lost the game @ Jax , vs Cincy and @ Oakland. Remember that Denver is weaker then NE and basically -3 is a fair line....

Indy showed how to pick apart the zone last week and if Tatum is ailing the yards wont come easy versus Pitts front. Which means more pressure on Jake.....

If I play this its Pitt or pass....

SF +6.5 -120 (5x) Have to say Minny is now getting attractive, middle?
This is not cause Minny looked so bad on MNF...I expected that to a degree. Its because the offense has issues and banged up key players. You can throw on Minnesota and The 49ers problem has been stopping teams not scoring on them....alway love getting SF at home after being embarrassed away. SD & Philly have stomped young SF at home but Minnesota is not in that class of talent. The over is intriguing as SF allowed 34 in every game but two....and Minnys D is ailing.....

Over 41 waiting (5x) SD & Cle
The Chargers offense is maturing under Rivers and the Browns cannot stop the run. SD with Meriman now out is missing the core of its defense from last season (Merriman , Phillips , Foley and Olshansky). New look Browns should be able to score enough to remain comeptitive. Not crazy about laying the Chalk......

1PM
Redskins +3 +102 buy to 3.5 though... also Under 41
Love the Skins at home off a BYE finally healthy on defense. Getting Dallas off a national TV comeback win on the road......This should be aPKem. Let Tony Romo do it for awhile before we annoit him anything. The key is really Wash defense getting healthy..look for a low scoring game..... and for Skins to go deep even w/o Santana Moss. Lloyd becomes part of the offense... Dallas defense played well at Carolina , Skins w/o Moss and Skins defense finallyhealtyhy getting Romoe 2nd start..

Atl @ Det
Both teams have key defensive players missing and its shown in the boxscore lately. In the past 3 games ATL has allowed 27,38 and 27. While Det has allowd at least 26 in every game(mostly 30+) since the opener. Now the FAlcons appear to have found a balanced attack on offense and this smeels of a shoot out IMO>Plus the Lions are off a BYE WEEK . The Lions offense has scored at least 20 something since Game 3 outside of the 17 @ Minny which is imprressive looking at that Viking defense. So as this number continues to rise its starts to maek DET look attractive in the +6 or +7 range . What I am hoping is the total slides lower so we can play the over.

Cincy @ Balt
With a better defense by leaps and bounds plus home field you have to like the RAvens here. Cincy has lost 3 of 4 and is a late TD away from being ona 4 game slide. They are decimated at LB and Jamal Lewis looked solid last week. Double revenge spot for Balt.

GB @ Buff
The Bills looked like crap like they always do vs NE at home. The Packers have been a good road DOG OF 6 + but here they are just a FG. I think GB is so depleted at WR and RB it has to catch up to them. Lean towards the home Buffs off the bye as they got healthy.

Hou @ NYG
Staying away from this game. NY is banged up with Chi on deck and might teake it easy here sort of like they did vs TB. They have numerous key defensive players injured. Houston has looked awful on the road but I think they could backdorr NY here.

KC @ StL
With KC defense allwoing alot of points lately I rather play the home team. KC pulled off nice hoe wins vs SD as 6 pt dogs and versus a star-less Seattlle team. Doesnt look like either defense can stop anyone lately.....KC poor track record on Turf.

Miami @ Chi
Think this is to high. SF deserved to be closer to -20 cauise they stink on the road . Miami even with Harrington deserves closer to +10 thanks to there defense. They are off a BYE and Chio has the Sunday Niter on deck. It will be interesting to watch CHI offense here and I think its inside 10pts here

Tenny @ Jax
Both teams suffering from injuries on defense but Tenny probably cant overcome them. JAgs defense is as solid a sthey come and Tenny mighty no break 10 here.....big number but klike Jax as Jags can run.

NO @ TB
Have to look at injuries but like the home dog......thought TB would be -1.5 here..


Looking at the rest of the 1 PMs still...not a great football week! Good Luck & Feel free to comment


Todays Plays ~
Redskins +3.5 -110 (8x) & Under 41.5 -110 (3x) ML +160 (1.5x) 22-19 Skins +13.40
Teams playing bad dont scare me. We know about there issues and Santana Moss being OUT. However they still have Lloyd and Randle El in the passing game along with Cooley and Portis. Romo is making his second career start and is already road chalk versus a division rival. With all things being equal this game should be a PKem. Really liked how Dallas played on defense last week and Skins finally have a healthy defense. Expect Greg Williams to try and confuse Romo as much as possible and SUCCEED at it! Silly trend DOG is 17-5-1 L22 of the series. Boys are 7-19-2 ATS after 14 + wins , 7-22 ATS as road chalk. Skins are 8-2 ATS after a BYE week and 4-1 L5 as home Doggie..

TB Bucs ML -108 (5x) Loss -5.40
From the get go I thought tB should have been -2 here. They have done little on offense past 3 weeks but I think Gruden needed that wakeup call last week. The Saints D has shown some holes recently and look for Cadillac to get established here. On the NO side they have some OL injuries but Bush has a sprained ankle and Horn is doubtful with a groin problem.... Though about the Under but its very close ...Two key injuries on TB defense Rice and Wyms stay tuned on those...

Bills -3-120 (4x) Won +4.00
At first glance Bills favored by more then 3 to GB...Then you start looking at see GB was 6.5 pt dogs in Det while Buffalo was 1 pt favs! Sure GB won SU by a TD and Buff lost by 3 but those lines although somewhat wrong said GB was 3.5 pts weaker then DET and Buff was 4 points stronger..Personally I think its more Bills 1.5 pts stronger then DET and GB 1.5 pts weaker..which means BILLS are 3 pts stronger and 3 more points for hoem field make -6 a better number. GB does well as a big dog of 6 or better not the case here and Buff is rested and tough ATS in NOV historically. GB is 1-6 ATS after a SU win. Bills are 12-4 ATS vs losing teams and 12-5 ATS as fav. Actually thinking Under 41 here...

Ravens -2.5 -130 (4x) & -2.5 -110 (1x) Won +5.00
Really Cincy is in disarray thanks to injuries to there LB corps and OL. The OL injuries hurt there pass protection with Palmer off surgery(who also has injured WRs to deal with) and the running game has less holes. There LB shortcomings allow other teams to run on them and Jamal Lewis finally broke a hundo last week. The Ravens defense isjust head and shoulders above Cincys and thats where this game is won with Cncy offense out of sync. Also thinking an under 42 here...

Lions +6 -110 (3x) & Over 47 -110 (3x) Lions win SU- 0.30
As I explained previously both teams have been scoring in the 20's and ATL actually upper 20's lately. Both teams have been allowing at least 28 a game past few weeks. Both teams missing key players on injuries. Game indoors on turf stresses SPEED.

Dolphins +14 -120 (3x) & Under 37.5 -110 (5x) 2nd H Under 19.5 -102 (3x) SU win -2.50 / -3.06
It has to be a plus to be off a BYE week and having CHI playing on Sunday Nite versus the Hot NYG. Miami's Defense is much better then the D's of the Lions , Seahawks , Bills and 49ers the 4 teams CHI has routed at home. Last week was a special spot as CHI was off a Bye and embarassing prime time game. Therefore the line was soft. Think about SF is +10 at home vs SD which means +17 away...Chi is a little tougher IMO then SD right now so really we should have see 18 or -19 on that but yet the public saw SF value @ +16. Now the betting market will see people willing to lay 14 or 13 with CHI against a better 'bad' team. Harrington is familiar with CHI and the key is not INTS but BAD INT's. The ones that take points off the board Or give points to Chi. If anyone thinks SF on the road is somewhat similiar to Miami on the road they should rethink wagering on sports. SF ia not competitive on the road and regularly allows 35 + points. Miami is almost always competitive but just finds way to lose...see @ Pitt , @ NYJ and @NE....Chi schedule has been so weak its actually laughable...toughest opponent a very medicore SEA team without Alexander. Phins allow 3 YPC away and that means Grossman most do more here... Bears 4-0 TAS home and Phins 0-4 ATS away...low scoring game today 20-10 type. out of respect for CHI I kept it small...

Still looking @ NYG / Hou , StL / KC , Ten / Jax....

My last decisions were:
Texans +7 .5 -120 (1.5x) & +13 -116 (1.5x) Win +3.00
NY is to banged up here and will take Hou lightily IMHO...no Plax means O struggles more.

STL ML -138 (3x) Loss -4.14
Rams are a long FG away from being 3-0 at home while KC is a fg away from 0-3...liked the over but KC struggles away make me rethink and wait for 2nd H.

Team totals -2.20
Over 26-108 ATL (1.5x) L
Und 22.5 +110 KC (1.5x) L
Und 19 -108 Cincy (1x) L
Und 28 -121 NYG (1x) W
Under 25 -111 Chi (1x) W

Teaser +6.00
Under 58 KC , Under 51.5 Cincy, Over 31 Buff (3x) W
Under 58 KC , Und 51.5 Cincy , Undre 51 Dal (3x) W

4PM's
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) SU Win +5.00
Hate that this line dropped so far but Minny is DOME team playing outdoors. Therefore I will stay on it...Like the over but waiting for halftime see an slow 1st Half(slow and low)

Over 41 -106 SD (7x) and Cle +13.5 -110 (5x) Win +12.00
Not sure how teh Browns do it but they keep it close just about every it game it seems. Like the fact Frye ha some free reign now and SD lost its heart on defense Merriman...

Steelers -2.5 -110 (5x) Loss -5.50 2nd H Over 19.5 -111 (2x)Win +2.00 & pitt -7.5 +219 2nd H (1x) L (net +1.00 2nd H)

Broncos are better but w/o Bell this is tough matchup for them. Big Ben is the key here
as he killed Pitt many atime this year...think last week @ Jax and vs Cincy...

Night game
Played NE -2.5 -120 (8x) and team total over 25.5 -128 NE (2x)
Under 49 -120 (3x) & Under 24 1st H -104 (1x)
Comments are above but looking at the under 49 ish here. NE is very similiar to Denver and the total was 37-40 depending on when you played it 45 is fair here IMO. Be back shortly . Last time we saw such ahigh total in this matchup we saw 20-3 witha 51 number. Befoe last meeting Indy couldnt break 24 in NE. This Pats defense is just as good as the prior D's and not sure Indy O can claim that with Stokley ailing and issues at RB..Rhodes hurting and Addai questionable in pass protection...27 -17 final IMHO.....


NBA @ 1PM

Raptors +7 -108 (2.5x) ML +242 (1/2x) change in plans 2nd H Spurs -3.5 -108 (2.5x) & Over 99.5 -120 (2x) Loss -0.70 / +2.00 2nd H
With SA off a loss it seems they are hopping on TOR here. The raptors had covered 5 straight before barely missing the cash in OT in the last meeting by a bucket. The new look Raps flying under the radar have played well in both games and SA 3rd in 4 nites plus the early start..SA 1-9 ATS last 10 sunday games...with NY on deck for 4th in 5 nites they will be a fade on Monday as well...

Hawks +4 -110 (3x) & Over 194 -110 (6x) 2nd H over 96 +108 (2x) -3.60
The Hawks at home just are a much different team. there so young that you cant pay attention to how they play on the road.

Philly +3 -109 (5x) 2nd H Over 93.5 -120 (2x) SU win +5.00 / +2.00
Extremely unimpressed with Miami's play to date

Net +0.70 sides & totals / 2nd H +4.00

Nite hoops~
Sonics see -1-110 (8x)
Though Seattle played very well against them and it seems as if SEA feels they was robbed! They felt the 48 -16 FT attempt difference(30-16 fouls) was the difference in the game as was the no calls late for there players. Had this game @ -2 so its pretty accurate IMO. Both teams scoring a ton but I think home court is the edge here...like the over at 212 ish... I wonder if Kobe shows some rust here? Why here? Alot of times adrenaline carries a player and that could have happened for a guy who missed all of preseason. His shot can also be inconsistent from game to game without the proper reps... Tough spot for LAL trying to beat the same team twice in 3 days.....also you could already see LAL get Kobe a ton of minutes and slowly pahse out some guys like Evans , Vuscic , and Vladdy...(IMO).

Under 188 -110 (5x) Houston & NO (186) WIn +5.00
Played this last nite but its now 183....which I think took away alot of the value. Probably would say play the 1st H under instead. Still thinking about the NO Hornets here. WHy the total? Sort of self explanatory with Houston always play a slow pace and hitting everything they shot yesterday.... be back on this one......Would recommend this game even at 182 but again better idea might be 1st H under...

This site was down and I added NO ML -114 (5x)Win +5.00 & 1st H under 92.5 -109 (2x) Win +2.00 (90@ half..bit of sweat there) 2nd Hedge Over 90.5-105 (1.5x) Win

Good Luck