Friday NBA Thoughts

Solid nite going 3-1 but lost the Suns Under...and talked myslef out of the Cavs. If I had some balls I would have pounded Over Cavs 2nd H and GS 2nd H yesterday.

Plays & Leans -

Charlotte Bobcats +1 -106 (7x) L
Raptors -4 -113 (6x) & -3.5 -105 (3x)L
Over 199.5 ATL -115 & Under 203 -110 (5x middle) xxxxx
Magic +5 -120 (3x) ML +165(1x)( now +5 +100 & +195) L
Ov 207.5 -110 Wiz (3x) W
Denver +3 -108 (6x) & ML +134 (1x) W
Over 206 -107 Philly (4x) W
Over 196 -110 Utah (4x) W
NJ -4 -111(6x) L
New York Knicks +10.5 -110 (8x) W
New Orleans ML -133 (6x) L (wrong score reported...how the fuck do you blow a 25 pt lead?)
Pistons +5 -107 (4x) W

ML parlay Wiz -226 , Tor -171 and Utah -160 (1x)
Then (2x each) Wiz with Tor and Wiz with Utah

2nd H
Raptors -4.5 -102 (3x) L
Over 104 +104 Tor (2x) W(high line...seems shady like the 2nd q pace )
NYK +3.5 -111(3x) W

CBB (1-2 YTD) What was I thinking?
Hawaii +8 -108 (3x) L
East Wash +10-110 (4x)L

Thoughts -
~ Atl @ Tor - Hawks win 3 straight pull off an upset due IMO to Cle just losing focus (up 10 with 9 to play). Cavs were miserable in the 2nd H from the FT line and with the chance to 'ice' the game King James missed a FT to extend to three with seconds remaining, instead he missed and Lue hit a floater in the lane for OT. The Hawks did a nice job of beating barely .00 type teams in Orl & NYK in ATL. They lost in Philly which Tor just beat and got he gift win in Cleveland. So to me alot of fuss over a smoewhat flukish win keeps this line soft...Philly was -3.5 here the other nite and would say that Philly is a good 3 or 4 pts stronger then ATL on a neutral court...which leads me to believe this should be closer to -5.5 . AT first glance the OVER made sense but looking at how many shots ATL opponents are avg it will take a tremendous effort fg% wise to get this in the 200's. Last year when ATL played no defense it was possible but this year seems different...so actaully lean to the UNDER @ 201 or better. So gonna middle the total..

~ Orl @ Ind - I really dont have a great feel for this game. However I thought with O'Neal at less the 100% , Granger and Tinsly struggling I think Orlando can hang with them tonite despite there struggles last year vs Indy.

~ Milw @ Wash - Take away the opener versus Det and IMO Milwauke has played poorly. The last game at home versus Houston wasnt nearly as close as the final indicates. I give MILW credit for the 4th Q comeback but what happened the other 3 quarters...appeared that Hosuton just got sloppy with the ball. Otherwise MILW was smoked at Toronto and Chicago. Arenas is on fire at the moment and Ilook for that to continue. Wiz have scored 124 and 117 at home...

~ Den@ Philly - The Nuggets keep finding new ways to lose. They could be 3-0 and stand at 0-3 because of that we get a spread I feel is off a bit probably closer to a PK game really. Nuggets were favored in Philly last year and both teams virtually the same. Denver has benefited from playing just 3 games this year while Philly playing 3rd in 4 nites..

~ Sea @ Char - Seattle is the best 1-4 team this season, they are a "few" 4th Q collapses from being 5-0. Every nite they find a new way to lose but eventually they will play a game. Tonites a great spot with the 3rd in 4 nites away also part of a 5 game tripwhich has seen them go 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS. They play in ATL tmrw. Big injury with Raymond Felton being OUT here but Morrison steps in at the two and Knight slides to the point. Last year Seattle was waxed down in Charlotte by 13 and 25 after 3 quarters. That was the Marvin Ely , Jumaine Jones , Primo Brezec frontline..Okafor is beginning to live up to the potential tag and Sean May is also playing well off the bench. I like Morrison starting here against a team disinterested in playing defense. Havent watched the past 2 Sonics game and cant understand the low shot attempts in those games. WIth Miami I played the UNDER with Shaq out but went Over in Orlando which was never close...I gonna wait and see where this total settles but I think I play the over here...Collison is questionable along with Fortson both were limited in pratice on Thursday.

~ Utah @ Bos - Not crazy about road chalk but Boston gave it everything to defeat Charlotte at home at the OT buzzer..Utah hung with NJ but ultimately faded. I see Utah bouncing back here but historically the Celts play Utah well. This year I dont think they have the big men to playwith this developing line of Boozer , Kirilenko and Okur. Al Jefferson loss will be felt here especially..Ryan Gomes an out of shape Ratliff , Candy Man and the rest of the cast will have there hands full. Utah is putting there opponents on the line 37 times a game and Charlotte went to the line 52 times versus Boston pushing the Celts up to 39 FTs allowed per. Both teams are solid from the line and hit a decent pct from three...

~ Miami @ NJN - For me I just think Miami has looked awful this year. Shaw probably isnt 100% and he was a big reason why they won last week in the 1st matchup. Miami has won 5 straight but this isnt last year and heat arent coming off an embarassing home loss. RJ was less then 100% last week I believe in this game and it showed in the boxscore. Miami won a close one but I think NJ rolls here at home...

~ NYK @ Hou - Tough spot for the home team 5th in 7 days , off a 3 game road trip . NY played Houston tight last year and the NYK showed they can win a tight game witha 4th Q comeback in Denver. They showed heart on Monday and coming back vs SA but the season is young and Isiah is still looking for a mix that works.....to many points here...

~ NO @ Port - Value play here as NO starting get abit overvaued IMO as we saw hem lose ATS to GS twice. The Blazers have pulled off a couple upsets at home already but I think we should have still seen -4 here. Randolph hasnt played particulary well vs NO and he is there offense.

~ Det @ LAL - DET always struggles on the west coast but I think LAL is falling back to there old Kobe ways...stand and wtach Kobe......