Tuesday, November 07, 2006

For Wed played Suns +6.5 -110 (8x) spurs 4th in 5 nites and Suns well rested. (ML +235 as well). Blazers +4.5 -109 and Under 199 -111 played as well...

Tuesday NBA Thoughts

Plays ~
Cavs -9.5 -110 (7x) L -7.70
Under 189 -110 (2.5x) L-2.75
Pacers -4 -120 (5x) W +5.00
Over 197 -107 Ind (3x) L -3.21
Und 204 -102 Seattle(3x) W +3.00
Memphis +4 -102 (4x) ML +164 (1/2x) L -4.58
Warriors +8 -118(avg price) (5x) W+5.00
Heat -7 +107 (2x) reminds me of Sac.minny last nite... L- 2.00
LAL -7.5 -115 (4x)
The NBA is humbling L -4.60 thanks to a choke and 2 missed FTs

Three huge mistakes by me. First liking Seattle but switching to Miami , second loving Houston @-2.5 but going Memphis and third was talking myself out of UND in NO>



1stH (+2.18)
Over 99 -121 Philly (1.5x) L
Under 104 -110Miami (1x) W
Under 100.5 -105 LAL (1.5x)
W
Ind -2.5 -105 (1.5x) W

Team (-1.08)
Und 89 -108 ATL (1x) L




2nd half (-2.15)

No play on the Indiana game

Cavs -7 -103 (1x)L

Ov 89.5 -112 Houston (1x) L

Over 95 -107 GS(2x) PUSH



Atlanta @ Cleveland

Appears to me that the Hawks are a getting alot of credit for 2 home wins. A team that was about 12 pt dogs in Cle last year , 6 pt dogs in Philly in the opener and so on opens at just 9.5. I expected at least 11 here. Atlanta will have trouble on the glass and they dont have a scorer outside of Joe Johnson. I would expect Atl to struggle to crack 85 points in Cleveland.

not a big Trend person but I liked this game to fall Under the number and saw these:

OU Trends
Atlanta
Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 13-3 in Hawks last 16 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 road games.
Over is 11-3 in Hawks last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.

Cleveland
Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 home games.
Under is 7-1 in Cavaliers last 8 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 16-5 in Cavaliers last 21 overall.
Under is 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 vs. NBA Southeast.
Under is 15-6 in Cavaliers last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 39-16 in Cavaliers last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 13-6 in Cavaliers last 19 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 35-17 in Cavaliers last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record

Now the Total is significantly lower then the numbers set last year but ATL was more run and gun last season so I waiting to see how this moves...

Plays : Cavs -9.5 -110 (7x) & under 189 -110 (2.5x) & Und 89 -108 team ATL(1x)

Philly @ Indiana

Again we see another road team getting more credit then it deserves. Philly start has been nice but home wins against ATL and a Shaq-less Miami is far from impressive. Winning @ Orlando was nice but I believe it was the game after ORL had shot lights out and trounced Chicago. Philly was catching 5 to Philly so this number should be around 6 IMO(Ind was -4 to SOLID no TEAM AS WELL). The 76ers have been lights out from three thanks to Korver and shooting 52% from deep but Ind allowing just 26%.

Waiting to see if I can catch -4 here and looking at the OVER since Indiana is not the same team it was in years past ...so expect an over play here as well. Almost @ -4...

Play: Indiana -4 -120 (5x) & Over 198-107 (3x)

Sea @ Miami

Sounds to me like SHAQ will not play but thats just a guess. Regardless I am leaning towards Seattle here. Lewis and Allen shot well last game and Miami just doesnt seem to have much going offensely with Shaq..+6.5 seems enticing...total is a mystery.. (gambled played +6.5 -110 small awaiting Shaqs status though)

Plays : Seattle +6.5 -110 (1x) CANCELED & Und 204 -102 (3x)

Hou @Memphis

Hard to not like Houston here but Memphis always play the Rockets well. This line got to pricey but I dont see myself taking Memphis here. To hard to get a handle on Houston but they are playing tough teams early...staying away from for now......but +4 or better I have to play the dog.. Switched

Play: Memphis +4 -102 (4x) ML +164 (1/2)

GS @ NO

Tough spot for GS 3rd road game in 4 nites coming off Dallas win. I just think this line is to high though. Have to look it afurther but 7.5 seems high and so does the total considering NO is involved...esp with teams combing to shot 66% from the charity stripe.

Played: Golden State (buy 1/2) +8 -120 (4x) +8 -110(1x) Still thinking Under

Minny @ LAL

I am far from impressed with LAL's play since Kobe returned. However Minny playing 4th road game in 5 nites and 5th game in 7 days. About a bad as a spot as possible for the Wolves who are searching for offense. Right now staying away but situation could dictate a play on LAL.

Still thinking LAL

NCAAF ~
Under 54 -110 (2x)
The Huskie O has struggled and alot of that has to do with the quality of opponents. However Toledo has been really poor on the road offensively andI look for that to continue.

GL ~ be back later



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