Saturday MLB Thoughts-

1PM EST SD @ STL

We have Chris Young vs Jeff Suppan today. First thing I would say is dont fall in love with Youngs road streak...whats he 9-0 or something in 26 away starts...there is alot of gray area. First he made 15 away starts and his teamw as 11-4. Second he was 6-0 in those 15 starts which tells me two things 1) he doesnt get good run support and 2) he is involved in alot of close games. Also note SD has lost 3 of his last 5 away and despite still solid pitching only one of the wins by more then by 1 run.

Things to know:

SD is 7-20 after an off day
SD is 6-20 L26 in STL(took 2 of 3 last week when STL was reeling)
STL 40-19 in the Day
StL 13-3 l16 divsional playoffs and SD dropped 8 straight postseason games
StL 42-17 vs the West
Stl 110-49 vs RHP @ home
StL 7-2 after a shutout
SD 2-5 after being shutout (6-1 UNDER)

We know Suppan turned it around in the second half going 6-2 with a 2.39 ERA. He was especially sharp in the 2nd H at home making 6 starts of 7 + innings and allowing less then 3 runs(actually 5 starts were 2 runs or less). He had bad starts at home Vs SD last Monday and Pitt in August.

All season @ Busch he was 7-2 (11-6) 3.18 ERA in 17 starts. He was 5-1(9-4) in the day 3.39 Day ERA. The concern with Suppan would be his 2 bad starts vs SD this season. I think you MIGHT be able to tae those lightily cause he has better day numbers and those were nite starts. The key is to keep Dave Roberts off the basepaths IMO. Blum has good career numbers vs Suppan but is only 248 in the day this year. Piazza has thehighest day avg but despite good numbers vs Suppan there are from a diffferent time IMO. the Pads have been feast or famine lately scoring 3 runs or less 7 times( 2runs or less 6 times ) in the past 11 games the 4 other occassions they scored 6 +.

Youngs Road numbers are filthy...
-93 inning only 58 hits allowed a .176 BAA.(away)
-Holding LHb to a .175 clip is ridiculous for a RHP only problem is STL big bats are Pujols , Rolen and Encarnacion..all RH's....the LH Duncan and Edmonds really are secondary in the lineup.
- Oh his Day splits 44 + innings only 24 hits allowed for a .157 BAA(2.22 ERA)

He was excellent last week versus STL as well 7 Innings 1 run. He has been FILTHY last few starts allowing JUST 5 hits and 1 run past 21 1/3 innings! STL scored more then 5 runs just Once past 10 games. Both pens doing there jobs this series.

Plays-

Under 8.5 -112 (6x)
Cards -105 (3x)

A's -145 /cards -105 parlay (2x) pending

Reason I went with STL was simply I feel its a cheap line. Last week STL had Reyes opposing Young and STL was -107. Clearly Suppan is worth more then Reyes and despite pitching well Young did not win as SD fell 4-2. think it should have been -120...

I am driving myself crazy over this Yankee game. I truly like the Yanks in this spot but brain keeps saying bad price , bad price. As Yanks 26 said in another thread there is almost always value in fading the Yanks.

NY is 10-2 in Wright L12 road starts. It was about 8 of 12 that Wright allowed less then 3 runs in the road.

Yanks are 8-2 away last 10 awayNYY is 34-24 DAY but have lost past 6 day games..Tigers are 4-12 past 16 day and 0-5 Bonderman L5 day


Wright was 6 -2 away 3.99 ERA and NY 10-3 when he started.In the day he was 6-2 (7-4) with a 4.45 ERA.BAsically Wright is a 6 inning SP that usually allows 2 or 3 runs in that span. On occassion he is tougher then that and on occassion he has nothing and gets hit hard...for the most part expect 6 innings and the oppposition to score 2or 3 times IMO.

Bonderman in his career hasnt pitched well at home , well in the day 12-21 career , well in the 2nd Half of seasons (almost 5 ERA this year) and struggled vsLHP...NYY will have 6. He was 6-4 4.57 at home this season witha 1.40 WHIP. Det went 8-9 in those starts and the uNDER was 10-6 primarily cause the BULLPEN pitched EXCELLENT when he left early. During the day he was brutal going 1-6 (3-8) 5.70 ERA , 1.51 WHIP and .299BAA. He allowed 81 hits and 47 runs (42er) in 66 1/3 innings.Past 2 season LHB have hit .286 against Bonderman . He also failed to make it to the 5th inning 3 times in his final 5 home starts.

My opnion is Jaret Wright is a good matchup vs DET free swinging lineup that is heavily RH. Just like Wang he throws a hard , heavy sinker and DET is a team that relies on the HR to score usually. its tough to lift Wrights ball.

If we are talking NY in day games they can hit.....seven batters above .307 in the sunshine and AROD @ .276 with 16hrs in 196abs aint shabby...the lone wolf is Posada who isnt suprising since he could be playing a day after nite game. Posada is 5 /16 aginst Jeremy and 280 with 20Hrs off RHP. Giambia is a beast in day games with 15 Hrs in 132 abs and a 341 clip! Johnny damon has blasted 14 hrs as well .307 clip. Whats best is they are LH , hit RH well and Bonderman struggles against LHB.

Cano 363 with 15 Hrs against RHP....Matsui 336 7Hr in 132 abs and Abreu .349 with 7Hrs as a NYY vs RH's. Everyone is 280+ except Giambi @ .270 with 28hrs in 312 abs...one per 11 abs!NY's LHB are 32 of 89 against Bonderman career ..only Giambi @ 3-15 is unimpressive.


The Tigers dont have solid day numbers thru there lineup....Thames 190 , Inge 222 Granderson 259 . At home only 3 guys are above 300..Magss and Pudge right at 300 with Guillen at 337 being the offense key.

So I am contemplating play NYY ML , Looking at Over 10 +104 , Over 5.5 NYY +105 team , Under 4.5 -115 team DET and 1st 5 INN over......Be back

I was going to play NY but I just cant now.......Giambi on the bench means Torre is clueless

Over 5.5 +102 First 5 Inn over (2x)
Over 5.5 +111 NYY team (2x)
Under 4.5 -111 Det team (1x)
Over 10 +100 (3x)

Saturday October 7th Thoughts

NCAAF

Auburn -14 -120 (3x) -13.5 -105 (1x)
Over 28-108 Auburn (1.5x)

I just see ARK skating by me by the skin of there teeth. They snuck out of Vandy witha point win thanks to a late missed 48yd FG but Mustain played well. Then vs Bama they couldnt hold a lead and won in OT thanks to a missed or blocked XP. Mustain could not move the offense at all in the 2nd Half. He finished 7 of 22 for 97 yards...now he travels to Auburn!

Again you would suspect that the ARK offense struggles against a top tier defense. While Auburn with Irons had no problem running on ARK last season and USC did hang 50 on them. The Bama QB played well against them as well. Florida being on deck is concerning but the fcat they struggled vs South Carolina hopefully puts emphasis on this matchup.

Penn State -2.5 -110 (4x) closed at PK ...uhhh
Unde 21.5 -108 Minnesota team(2x)

Even when Minnesota was the superior progran they struggled vs the Nittany Lion defense. Winning 20-14 in 2003 and 16-7 at home in 2004. Last year Penn State whipped them. While Morrelli is unproven on the road he isnt facing a solid defense as Michigan shredded them for 500+ yards and should have put up more then 28. Tony Hunt played well last week and ran all over Minny last year.

The Penn State defense is coming together and becoming a unit that is similiar to last seasons IMO.

Miami -18 -104 (4x)
Over 43 -105 (1.5x)
Miami over 30.5 -113 (2x)

North Carolina cannot stop the run and that will always open the passing game. They have allowed on average over 200yds per game on the ground...James is a little nicked up but I read Moss might return..

I generally think the Miami offense looked much better then the 14-13 final. They drove up the field on there opening drive going 80 yards and scored. Next drive they moved it 30 or 40 yards
but were picked and it seemed they were lost till half. After halftime they put apprx 250 yards of offense on 4 drives. They had the ball nearly the entire 4th quarter but had zero points. They missed a short FG and ran the clock out the final 5 minutes....127yards and 0 points! Clemson , Furman and VaTech all put up 35.

Indiana +8.5 -110 (5x) ML +290(1x)
Under 45 -105 (1.5x)

My points got deleted...As handicappers we are taught not to pay to much attention to last week. Michigan State clearly did not show up vs Illinois after CHOKING versus Notre Dame. There is no question in my mind thats all that happened there.

While you could argue that maybe the Hoeppner situation took away from Indiana's play. I think alot of saw a Wisky team grow up abit versus Michigan the previous week and this was carry over.

Both teams inconsistent on offense . Just remember 2 weeks ago Illy caught 21 at home vs Iowa now they are a TD favorite to a team who was only +10 at home vs Wisky. Expecting a low scroing game.....

Under 41 -105 Western Michigan & Ohio (2.5x)

Two solid defenses with offenses that are unproven. Ohio has always been tough defensively at home and should keep WMU to under 20 points here. Ohio has not had an offense under Solich yet....WMU held down Virginia and Toledo.

Wake Forest +17 -110 (4x)

To me this is FSU & NCST all over again...its always a tight game. Clemson lost Stovall and Merriweather also appears unavailable. Wake has been solid on defense and I give them credit for winning @ UConn and @ Miss even though those programs are down. The Clemson offense didnt lokk as solid at FSU or BC this season and there defense didnt appear to be an elit e unit.

Syracuse +7.5 -120 (4x) ML +248(.75x)

I cant believe in Pitt yet. They had one quality team in Mich State and were blown out and run all over. Enter Syracuse new found weapon the running game. I cant take anything from winning @ Cincy early beating teams like Virginia and Toledo w/o its QB at home. The Cuse always are tough in the DOME and I expect the same again. Thinking over though....

Purdue +11 -105 (2x)

The Iowa offense has struggled this season and Purdue can throw the ball and make plays in the passing game. Just think Purdue can keep it a game all afternoon.

This is just the NOON starts. I had two leans over Kansas and Over Pitt.

Added:
Over 52 +102 Kansas (1x)
Teaser SDST +39 , Over 33 Pitt / Cuse and UCLA -1.5 (2x)

Act II: Mid Afternoon starts-

Buffalo +4 -108 (2x)

Feel that Ball State cant play defense and this Buffalo team has grown up since the opener vs Temple.

Air Force ML -131 (4x) Under 50 -108 (2x)

Revenge for last years 10 pt collapse in the final 3minutes. Actually Navy hasnt impressed me since the blew out two of the worst offenses in college in Conn and Stanford. They struggled in all 3 home games vs ECU , UMass and Tulsa. Decent teams but think if Navy was as good as portayed they would have more clearly won those games.

Air Force I think has played well in all 3 games and has the better defense.

Tulane +3 -120 (2x) ML +119 (1x)

Rice as road chalk .....Ricard will have a day IMO.

Under 39 -103 Mississippi (3x)
Miss +105 ML (2x)

Where is the offense coming from here...Think Miss can build off the Georgia game here

Four bad teams peaking my interest:
Miss St +21 -108 (3x) added
Thinking similiar game to ECU& improving offensefor MSU
Temple +24 -108 (1x)

SDST +29 (teased)

Stanford +29.5 (still unsure of there WR situation)

ACT III

Under 41 -102 Florida & LSU (4x)
Fla -114 (4x)

Sorry cant be impressed by LSU. They played 1 good defense and managed a FG. They wont on Florida and I think Fla schedule and the fact they playing home is a huge bonus IMO. Wynn not playing stinks but I dont expect offenses to win this game only lose it.

USC -19 -107 (2x)

Huskies played 3 tough games in a row and this USC team will be tough to score on..thinking WASH cant top 14 points here. Big difference when you look at it as USC 3 TD fav @ Zona while WASH was a FG DOG.....

Jarrett returns and much like vs Nebraska its great to back the Trojans when the Public doubts them....

Under 49 -110 Texas / OU (3x)
Oklahoma +4.5 -110 (2x)

Love the how the TEXAS defense is playing this year and expect a close game here. Not sold on the Texas offense yet and how much of passing game they will have....

Maryland +14 -110 (2x)

GTech seems to play to the level of there opponents. Nice games vs ND and VaTech as dogs but flat vs Troy and Virginia.

Over 34.5 -108 Michigan team (3x)

Love how Michigan is playing and Mich St well we dont know...I do Hart ran for 200 yards last year vs the Spartans and Henne has been on point....

New Mex State ML +100 (2x)

Idaho fade....

East Carolina -6 -120 (2x) & Under 42 .5 -110 (2x)

Beating Duke proves what?

Leans -
Mich State +15 , Baylor +6 +100 (1x), Ok St ML


Night time:

Missouri +4.5 -105 (2x)

Unimpressed by Tech to this point.....

Cal -4.5 -115 (3x)
Over 60 -110 Cal (3x)

Like the Bear offense and think they have a significant edge in defense.

Boise St -35 -120 (2x)
Over 46.5 team -113 (1x)

Obviously I expect a 49 + nite from them.

Fresno State -14.5 -105 1st H (1.5x)

Its Utah State...either free money or sucker...

Nevada +12 -110 (2x)

Just think over 10 is inflated.. Nevada can score..

North Texas +3 -112 (2x)

favorite is 0-5 SU..

Kentucky +5 -102 (4x)

Wildcats can score and still think SC is average on offense and defense ...

Bama -28 -120 (2x)

Duke has been shutout in three of 4....Bama defense should lead to points

leans-

ULmOnroe +5.5
Iowa State +7
CMU +2.5
Georgia +2.5
UTEP -11
Houston -17
UCLA -11.5
Wash St -3

GL - hate these big cards!

Friday MLB Playoffs

Minnesota @ Oakland

Its obvious to me that people are just 'betting' according to how they thought the series would go. For instance in Game 2 in Miny we saw a nice runnup in the line which closed at about -150....for Boof Bonser in a playoff game! Today I think we saw alot of LAD money cause people didnt expect the Mets to be up 2-0 and that line closed horrificly LOW @ -130 NYM. I mean last time KUO pitched @ Shea he was +155 vs John Maine...and Maine was -130 vs Lowe the previous day!

With that said it appears to be the ONLY reason one would back Minnesota in game 3 is for similiar reasons. People feel Minnesota would probably win this series and are chasing them.

This line is low folks. I jst mentioned Bonser was nearly -150 vs Loaiza. Well how bout the fact that Haren face Radke in Minny and was -120 and faced Radke in Oakland laying -170..

Lets remember Minnesota has failed to hit this series and is hitless with RISP. Looking back at there past 8 games its been much of the same...6 times they scored 2 or 3 runs, and they scored four or five one time apiece. Now Haren struggled his last few starts. However he has 5 career outings versus them and four are very solid. His ast 2 starts vs them span 14 innings and he didnt allow a run. The earlier meeting he lost 7-6 to Radke @ the Dome was rough 7runs in 6 innings. Previous to that he allowed 5earned (6runs) in 14 innings in 2 starts. haren has a 3.09 DAY ERA and less then 1.00 WHIP (only 66hits in 87.1inn)

Factor in Twinkies 2-12 Last 14 playoff games while OAK is 40-17 last 57 DAY games! The Twins have played 7 of 8 UNDER and 10 of 11 UNDER. Twins starting lineup is 20 for 88 career against Haren with only 2 Hrs.

Brad Radke is a MYSTERY IMO. We know about the labrum he is pitching with and the fact the guys arm hurts so much he doesnt even play catch bewteen starts. The guy has heart obviously. He just made his 1st appearance in a month vs KC lasting 5 solid innings but throwing only 57 pitches.

He started the year off terribly , especially on the road. His 1st 5 road outings were gruesome going 1-4. He lasted only 24 1/3 inning but allowed 48 hits , 27 runs and 7 hrs. He turned it around and before his las August start when he left due to injury. The 7 starts away inbewteen saw hm allow 19 earned (20runs) in 47 innings...the question is what do you expect??

Oakland are day WARRIORS...the whole lineup seems to hit better in day games and Big Hurt is .290 with 17hrs! The lineup itself is only very average against Radke in there careers.

Under seems to make sense but I prefer to play Minnesota under 4 runs ...

Play: Oakland -144 (waiting on this)

NYY @ DET

While many might disagree I still think NY has trouble vs LHP especially on the road. They start 5 LHB's and ARod is always a question in a big spot while SHEFF is still working his way back IMO. Posada hit better off RH this year and Jeter hits everyone.

I checked every home game for DET vs lefties and every road game for NY vs lefties.

Some interesting findings IMO:

New York is 16-6 @ Home vs LHP only 15-11 Away (actually 9-17 on the 1.5 RL as 6 wins were by 1 run)

In 26 away games started by LHP the Yankees hit ONLY 14 Hr's against those starters.

In those 26 starts only on 4 ocassions did the LH starter fail to complete 5 innings...Opening Day Barry Zito in Oakland , John Rheinckecker of Texas a marginal ML pitcher , Jon Lester of Boston in what was his last start , and Joe Saunders who complained of arm fatigue. Otherwise with 3 more exceptions where the SP went 5 innings...Lilly in April , Loewen shortly after being called up and Chen in early August did the SP fail to go 6 innings. That makes 18 of 26 starts where the LH SP went 6 or more innings vs NY!

In 26 SEPT innings spanning 4 starts the Yanks managed 4 runs and No Hrs against JP Howell , Adam Loewen , Eric Bedard and Jorge DeLaRosa. In 6 AUG starts they lit up Saunders and Lester but struggled versus but struggled vs Washburn , Wells and Lowen getting only 4 runs in 20 innings.

NY is 29-18 UND vs LHP and DET is 31-18 UNDER vs LHP. Yanks last 5 road playoff games went UNDER. They are 23-5-1 UND as a fav of bewteen 150 and 200. Under is 19-9-1 when DET is home vs LHP as well.

The Tigers vs LHP:
Pudge .340 5hrs
Maggs .294 9Hrs
Guillen .291 5 Hrs
Polanco .272
Monroe .271 only 2 Hrs
Casey .256 or Shelton if he plays
Inge . 243 6 hrs
Thames .238 8 Hrs
Granderson .218 4 hrs

Randy has been tough on DET allowing 4 runs and 6 hits in 14 innings some of which came in the top of the 9th inning in NYY...

Tigers were 8-5 2nd H vs LH at home witha 4-3 record in 1 run games.

This line is completey INFLATED. Heck Unit was -145 or so at home vs Bonderman on 8 /31...RJ was also a small dog @ DET earlier vs Bonderman.

The question is Randy healthy? I think he has pitched fairly well when healthy but has been inconsistent cause something always seem to be ailing him.

One thing I knowis Randy is 8-0 after a Yankee LOSS and Yanks are 8-0 when he starts vs the Central. In 4 away starts vs the Central 26 2/3 inn 13 h 6 runs 5 earned 7bb 22 K 1 Hr.


Kenny is 7-3(12-4) 3.26 at Home but 11 of 15 have also gone Under. Problem with the GAMBLER is we know about his failed history as a Yankee and how the Yanks alwayshit him hard. DET avoided pitching him in the Stadium I believe cause of this. He has pitched just one time vs NY since 2003 and it wasnt pretty but it also wasnt recent...Also Rogers wasnt sharp past 2 outings...

Basically I feel that if RJ is healthy NY has a good shot atwinning this but the price is a joke. I do fel that its verylikely this is a 1 run game going by the fact how many 1 run games these teams play against Lefties....Unfortunately it seems the RL for DET +1.5 -109 tells us that more then likely it wont be a 1run game.....however I tend to disagree...

Really would like to play the Under 9.5 +106 but waiting since Kenny vs NY is a question mark and RAndy 's back is a question mark!


PLAYS-
Oakland -145 (7x) which if the price falls I would add to my position (added 3x @ -138)
Under 4 -114 Twins team total(3x)

Played a PROP...Radke Under 87.5 pitches -108 (1x)

Nice start A's win 8-3!

Late game...
thinking Und 9.5 +105 and DET +1.5 -110...but I am Yankee fan and its tough...

simple MATH....NYY is 9-17 on the -1.5 RL vs LHP on the road and DET is 11-2 on the +1.5 RL @ Home in the 2nd Half!

More NYY - Tiger research......Still trying to debunk the theory that MY Yankees hit LHP well especially away..However I just noticed Torre sat Sheffield and Cano..

Posada .263 3Hrs in 137 abs vs .283 20Hr in 328abs
Giambi .213 9Hr in 132 abs vs. .270 28Hrs in 319abs
-Giambi also has extreme splits for day /nite
.217 22hrs in 314 abs @ Nite
.341 15hrs in 132 abs @ Day
Cairo .279 against LHP compared to Cano's .287 (neither HR'ed)
Jeter .390 4 Hrs.
ARod .294 10 Hrs
Matsui .226 1Hr in 53 abs.
Damon .297 6hrs
Abreu .281 0Hrs in 57 abs (.293 3hrs in 167abs season)
- All 3 OFs are LHB. Rogers allowed LHB to hit .200 this season and one would guess it was even lower then that at home consideing his significant difference in home / away splits.

Bernie .323 7Hrs in 133 abs to Sheffields .344 2hrs in 32 abs.

Against Kenny Rogers we have some gaudy numbers:

Damon 15-49 2Hrs
Gaimbi 10-23 5Hrs
Jeter 8-20
Posada 8-16 2hrs and 9 RBI
Arod 10-19 5Hrs
Bernie 12-34 2Hrs

Remember his last start was 2004 vs NY and before that 2002...not very recent..and rogers has probably gotten better with age unlike UNIT.

Key numbers...NYY only 14 Hrs vs LH starting Pitchers on the road versus Rogers allowing only 6 Hrs at home. Tells you NY will need to string together HITS to score. Which if you watch the Yankees know could be a HUGE PROBLEM...they just fail often in the clutch. WHile some might applaud Torre's lineup changes think about this...Abreu and Giambi batting 3rd and 5th are LH. Despite previous success both have struggled vs LH this year and Roger is holding LH to a .200 clip. Giambi's nite splits are also not very good. You then have Kenny Rogers facing ARod in the 4 hole......when has he been clutch?? He puts Posada 6th and you saw his numbers vs LHP followed by Matsui a LHB. Clearly Torre has done a nice job of reorganizing Murder's Row into a pitching edge for DET. Bernie and Cairo havent played in a week or so... He did a nice job watering down the lineup from 3-9 IMO.


Torre did an EXCELLENT JOB of relying on the past. Hoping that Kenny Rogers is the pitcher he was years ago in Oakland , Minny , NYM and Texas. All indications are that he isnt though. I dont think we can weigh the NYY lineup career numbers vs Rogers all that heavily here. What scares me some about Rogers is more his last 2 outings then his previous playoff track record or versus the NYY.

Obvioulsy the point of concern with UNIT is how healthy he is. The guy never seems to be truthful when it comes to this. Which is understandable but if your in that much pain you should say something. Anyway my point is RJ saying he is okay isnt very comforting....The positive with UNIT is his numbers vs the AL Central 8-0 and after a loss 8-0....As well as his numbers vs the DET lineup , limited but effective.

Pudge just 18 -73 .247
Polanco is 12-35 the only good numbers.
Maggs 2-10 but 2 Hrs and Thames 2/9 2Hrs
Casey 3-12 and Granderson 0-3 2K's.

That leaves Inge , Monroe and Guillen combined @ 5/22

I just dont see runs tonite if these SP are even close to on there game........

Tigers +1.5 RL -114 (3x) and +1.5 -118 (1x)

Under 10-110 (6x) look you can get this or very high + money with 9.5

Under 5.5 1st5 Inn -111 (2x)

Under 5.5 NYY team +102 (1x)

Bad back and cold weather are a concern for us Yankee fans.....I believe this game will be played tight since its so pivotal in the series...

GL

Thursday Thoughts

1PMEST Detriot @ NYY -225/9.5

The first question we should ask ourself is what effect if any did Verlander 'beginning to loosen up' have on him physically on him . As well as the mental aspect of getting geared up to start. Even a vet like Mussina is so routine based it makes you wonder.

The numbers:
Mussina 2006

HOME 9-2 3.19 16 98.2 88 37 35 12 17 95 .232 1.06 WHIP
DAY 6-4 3.28 11 68.2 69 32 23 5 14 64 .256 1.21 WHIP

5/31 @ DET 9 inn 6 H 1r 0ER 1bb 5k.

Lineup vs Moose
Granderson and Casey each 1/3 (Casey Hr'ed)
Guillen 5/29 1bb 11K's (0 XBH's)
Inge 3/12
Monroe 2/8
Ordonez 10/35 1Hr(3XBH's)
Polanco 1/7
Pudge 16/63 1bb 18 K's(5XBH's)
Stairs (DH) 5/27 (2XBH's)

One note on Mussina is his day splits are always better then his nite and he generally pitches much better @ Yankee Stadium then on the road.

Last year 3.52 Home ERA & 1.15 WHIP compared 5.34 Away ERA & 1.60 WHIP
2004 3.94 Home ERA & 1.28 WHIP compared to 5.25 Away ERA & 1.37 WHIP

Day 2004 3.28 ERA & 1.18 WHIP to 5.11 ERA 1.38 WHIP
Day 2005 2.76 ERA & 1.27 WHIP to 4.97 ERA 1.40 WHIP

Verlander

Day splits 6-2 2.78 9st 55Inn 52 H 18 R 17 ER 5Hr 13 BB 35 K 1.18 WHIP

Away splits 9-6 3.91 16st 99 Inn 104 H 45R 43Er 12 Hr 35 BB 74 K 1.40 WHIP

The Yankee lineup clearly hits better in Day games then DET's.


Plays :
Under 9.5 +100 (6x)
Under 5.5 First 5 Innings -117 (2x)
NYY -1.5 -114 (2x)

The reason I went with NY RL was very high juice obviously ...However DET has only 2 wins vs NY this year both 9th inning comebacks. Monroe's 3run H off Proctor and run in the bottom of the 9th off Farnsowth I believe in Verlander's start. Expecting a 5-3 game here.

The Under is aided by Laz Diaz behind the dish and his 22-12 Under record (8-5 Under AL). There was a 3 game span with some ailing SP and a Coors game, exclude those and he avgs 7.5 runs per. There appears to be some wind blowing in from RF at about 15 MPH.

More to follow...

The other NY game:

Much has been made of the Mets struggle against LHP recently. I think you have to disect the numbers and realize they are 5-6 at home vs LHP since 8/1 but only 1-9 away. Think they are 8-8 at Home since July vs LHP. It also appeared NY coasted after clinching and many of those games that followed soon after had LHP.

Kuo was great his first time out vs them but can he do it a second time? He pitched well in SEPT when joining the rotation. However Glavine had a2.98 ERA @ Shea past 3 seasons and he exceeded that with a 2.88 ERA this season. Clearly Glavine signed with the Mets for this day and has a tremendous edge in postseason experience.

As I went over the past 2 months for these teams I found NY plays better at home vs LHP but still was very inconsistent with the offense. They have 3 guys who hit LHP very well in LoDuca .336 , Reyes .330 and Suprisingly LHB Endy Chavez .333 who Randolph would start if he had a clue since Floyd is below 200. Wright faded in the 2nd Half against lefties but is still @ .285. Everyone else is below .247, the key is Beltran though . He is @ .247 but generally hits LHP well being a Switch Hitter. For some reason it hasnt happen this year and his .225 home average doesnt help...

In Sept @ Home they lost 5-0 to Chuck James , 5-0 to Kuo , 9-1 Stultz , won 3-2 vs Olsen but scored late off the pen , lost 6-3 to Willis and won 12-6 vs Michael O'Connor when they got 6 in the bottom of the 5th off him.

In August @ Home they beat Moyer 8-3 , Lost 4-3 to Wolf , won 10-8 vs Mark Mulder who shouldnt have been pitching , won 7-4 vs Jeff Francis (2 earned in 5 inn), lost 5-3 to Wolf.

Generally I still some offensive questions but after reviewing LAD. Its the same story despite some great indivual avgs.

Martin .366 vs LHP but .244 away

Kent .347 vs LHP but .258 away

Nomar .341 vs LHP but .283 away

Furcal .324 vs LHP but .269 away

Lugo .263 vsLHP BUT .287 away

Saenz .397 vs LHP but .326 away

Either .351 vs LHP but .281 away

Lofton .214 vs LHP but .322 away

Drew .244 vs LHP and .269 away

So LA hits Lefties but doesnt seem to be the case on the road. I think the fact Glavine pitched twice vs LAD this year once in Shea and once in LA with drastic differences in outcomes backs up the numbers. ^ runs in LA and none @ Shea....

In Sept LAD scored 0, 2 , 0 , 8 , 3 , 5 , 4. Now all these were AWAY except the 3 and 5. The 8 run game was against Sean Marshall @ Wrigley and Marshall just was lost upon returning from the DL. So I take that game very lightily. Its interesting the 0,2, 0 span was a 3 day stretch when they faced Doug Davis , Cris Capuano and Tom Glavine all 3 very similiar soft tossing LHP and managed 2 runs / 14 hits in 27 /3 innings. Also the 4 run game they won in the 9th off a LH closer Mike Staton but managaed just 2 runs in 7 innings off Lowry. Sort of a soft tosser as well..crafty is the word...

In August they won 3-0 and 7-3 on the road. However the 7 run game featured a 6run 7th inning as the Marlin pen imploded(not suprising is it)! They were 4-1 @ home in Aug losing 3-1 , winning 3-2 , 4-2 and 6-5 twice. The only starter they hit was Michalak on Cincy. The other 6 run game was vs Milton when they got just 2 earned of four runs off him in 5 innings.

So there seems to be a long trail for lineups struggling to score vs LHP but finding ways to win. This really could be a 1run game but after yesterday you have to wonder about the LAD pen. Kuo goes 6 and then what? Who do they turn to?

LAD 8-17 Last 25 away vs LHP. They are 13-28 L41 against teams with winning records. While NYM is 12-3 past 15 against teams with a winning record.

Ted Barrett behind the dish is 17-4 L21 for the home team and last 10 all by the home team. The home team in the past 18 MET games Barrett has called is 17-1. The UNDER is 14-3 Last 17 for Barrett as well.

Curious that Kuo was something around +155 versus Maine recently. He was exceptional but why so much chaper here and why is it going down still??

Plays-

Under 5 -117 First 5 Innings(3x)

NYM -141 (8x)

Hey if I am missing something here so be it.....

Under 9 -103 (4x)

Under 4 +100 LAD (2x)

Parlay NYM -141 & FSU -9.5 -105 (3x)

Parlay NYM -141 , FSU -9.5 -105 , Utah Utes ML -135 (1x)

We have heard alot about LaRussa's decision to start Weaver on the road cause it 'appears' Weaver pitches better on the road since signing in StL. However in 8 awat starts he has completed 6 inning just 3 times with the other being 5 + innings. So that puts the questionable pen into teh mix for sure. Weaver did not pitch well in the playoffs as a Yankee or Dodger. His most recent playoff start was @ StL going 5 2/3 Inn allowing 8 hits and 6 runs. Back in 2004 he made 3 starts Petco in a season when he pitched well vs SD. He was shelled twice going 9 Inn allowing 16 hits and 13 runs. The strong start was July 30th 2004 going 8 innings allowing 1 run.

The biggest problem Weaver has is his struggles vs LHB and issues allowing the long ball. This year Lefties hit .340 against him with 22Hrs. Last year it was .297 with 22 hrs and in 2004 .291 with 13 hrs. Clearly its not a trend. I already heard that SD did the smart thing and started Bard over Piazza(..337 6hrs against RH's to Piazza's 257). Weaver did face SD when he was Angel but 2 keys things maybe 3 Piazza was the DH and Greene and Bellhon were up the middle..not today though. Today we have 7 lefties and agood job by Bochy seeing what I see. Only Cameron who is decent vs RHB and Weaver starts. So SD weakest bat against RHB is Blum a lefty who hits .267.

Now Wells its tough to figure what to expect but he looked fine last time out and is a big game , postseason SP when healthy. He has faced STL as recently as 2004 and 2005 winning both going 15 inninsg allowing 8 hits 2runs and 0BB's.

He has faced everyone in the lineup at least once. Looking at what Belliard does vs LHP it seems LaRussa is going with defense...157 BAA in STL. Pujols is 3/9 zero Hrs , Rolen 4/9 2hrs but he has struggled vs LHP this year (.259) , Encarnacion 7/24 but .316 7Hrs against LH this year , Edmonds 11/35 but .156 against LH this year. So a mixed bag IMO.

Now some keys are SD 14-3 last 17 at home and 12-2 after a LOSS. STL is 1-9 last 10 as dog of 125 to 150 and 22-45 as a dog of 110 to 150. 23-33 vs LHP . 4-10 Last 14 away playoff games. Cards are 8-24 L32 road games. 3-14 L17 aay vs LHP. 6-12 Away vs winning teams .

The one big factor is 39-19 during the day also 15-3 UNDER on Thursday. Also 41-17 vs the West.

Something that most people dont catch is Weaver on extended rest not pitching since 9/29. This season 2-9 in 12 starts with more then 5 days of rest going 60 2/3 innings allowing 84 HITS , 56 RUNS / 51 EARNED & 17 HRS!!!!!!! OUCH!

I really didnt weigh Day / Nite splits here much cause it seemed inclusive. Last Card road win vs a Lefty July 9th in Houston.

Plays:

Padres -140 (8x)

Padres 1st 5 Inning-137 (2x)

Padres -1.5 RL +155 (.5x) and Padres -2.5 +235 (.5x) value plays

Over 4.5 SD runs -111 (5x)

Under 4 STL runs -103 (2x)

NCAAF

So far on the wrong side of two close games this week. Really shocked at how poorly the Marshall defense looked last nite. I knew that when the missed the XP it would come back to haunt me....not that Marshall deserved to win just changes the complex of the game. Not to mention 4th and 4 really backed a Marshall stop would have been nice...you never know if Bradshaw cane break free at the end of the game get a cheap TD....

Tonite both teams rested since 9/23. I cant buy much into the upset of BC for the Wolfpack though. Boston College had already played 3 tough games and hadnt been impressive @ Central Michigan. Then tough home OT games vs Clemson and BYU probably left them on empty. The Wolfpack did nothing but hang around in that game. Boston College needed 1 yard to end the game and failed twice to get it. Look at how NCST scored there 17 points....48 yd run by Brown followed by 22 yard run for Baker. I dont see that happening vs FSU defense. They got the ball at midfield on there 1st TD and agains 26yd run by Brown. The last TD was a 34 yd pass...again not going to happen IMO vs FSU unless the defender falls or something. Not to mention huge momentum with BC not being able to ever put that game away...

You can look @ Miami getting 10 points at home and not having 200yards of offense..something like 16 carries for 30yards for there backs. Rice's RB had a nice statsheet except he had 4 carries for 2 yards in the 1st half and his yard didnt come until the score was 31-7 and most came on the last drive that started with 4 minutes to go. James Davis a STUD back had 19carries for 87 yards a 4 yd average. Now I realize Brown had a big game versus them last year with 179 yards but alot came on 2 runs...nearly 115 yards..You would think this time around they are prepared for him and not taking them lightily. So its my presumption that FSU can take the run away and focus on the young QB Evans...which is going to be trouble cause they will blitz him and confuse him. This is definetly the toughest defense he has seen.Evans appears to have developed something with John Dunlap and if I noticed it I am sure so did FSU.

Looking at this years lines I see NCST as decent size home favs against Akron but lose..., 3pt dogs @ So Miss and get smoked.... Basically we are saying that these teams are all fairly equal in terms of strength...while FSU won @ Miami cathcing 4 and lost by 7 at home to Clemson laying . That basically says that FSU is equal to teams like Clemson and Miami. See the tremndous difference in level of play????FSU hasnt managed to be consistent on offense and the OL is ailing. However even with recent series history in mind I dont see this Wolfpack defense being as strong as years past...400++ plus yards allowed to So Miss and Akron!!If FSU doesnt give great field position away I dont see how NCST sustains loing drives......17@ home vs Akron , 23 @ home App St , 17 @ SoMiss but a garbage TD , 17 @ home vs BC on a last second TD.

Team Total Under 14.5 -115 NCST (6x)

going to lay it with FSU as well just watching the LINE(see -9.5 -106). I think this line was set to attract Wolfpack money...10.5 open is over a key number (10). Revenge is definetly a word I would use here.Looking at the 9 PM start.....going back forth. Unimpressed with TCU offense and Ballard who knows how well he feels. Not that Utah has done anything versus Boise St...@ UCLA is tough though IMO.

Adds

Florida State -9.5 -105 (6x)

Teaser (2x)FSU -9.5(+0.5) , Under 41.5 (51.5)Utah , Over 39 (29)FSU.

Utah ML -125 ML (3x) & ML -119 (3x)

Under 20.5 TCU -128 (2x)

Under 41.5 +101 (4x) & Under 43 -102 (1x)

2nd Half-FSU ML -236(2x)Under 7.5 -116 NCST team (2x)

Just cant be impressed by TCU. They struggled to win @ Baylor and really the Bears gave them that game late if I recall correctly. They beat Texas Tech at home cause the Red Raiders couldnt score...should we be suprised that GIMMICK Tech offense failed AGAIN versus a good defense on the road. AN explosive passing attack comes to town and blows them out...46 points in 3 real games...Utes had 38 @ SDST...Now Utah really shit the bed last week. However there is an edge in having to stay home. Could we just chalk it up as a bad day? Utah hadnt really been tested till Boise and failed miserable...at least they have shown something offensively in there other games. TCU just seemed to get some breaks last year and this is a revenge matchup for Utah. Ballard ailing and the TCU running game still trying to get healthy.

Good Luck today.

October 4th Wed Thoughts-

Marshall -3 -119(7x)


This is a real basic play for me. Again I feel this line is also off but soft. I mean how is a UCF team who was a home dog to so-so teams like SoMiss and USF only catching 3 points on the road....basically the home field advantage adjustment @ Marshall. A team that has looked fairly decent @ Tenny and @ Kansas State past 2 weeks. Not to mention Marshall is never an easy place to play.

Some may point out UCF defeated Marshall last year at home....and I will say as 3pt home dogs...It simply appears that UCF is the classic team to 'overacheive' one season and when expectations get raised or there are expectations everything bounces against them. The combination of extra preparation time and experience from playing @ WV , @ Kansas State , @ Tenny...thought we should have seen -6 here...thinking 24-14 ish..


Baseball
Today-Over 9 -104 Twins/ A's (5x)
Over 5 -110 First 5 Innings (2x)
Over 4.5 Twins -118 team (2x)

Yesterday I felt Minnesota would hit Zito who had tremendous road splits cause the Twins hit LHP very well. In the back of my head I had noticed that the only LH to give them trouble of late was Mark Redman who was much like Zito. Maybe something I should have realized or paid attention to.

Anyway today the Twins will adjust there lineup some and get more lefty bats in there to face Loaiza. In SEPT Esteban really struggled on the road and that can be said fo his entire 2006 'away' season. He made 14 starts but lasted only 77 innings (about 5.5 per). He had a 6.01 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. My only concern is how well he pitched in AUG and in his 3 SEPT home starts that didnt seem to carry over to the road.

Kerwin Danley seems to make pitchers work as they average over 290 pitches in his starts. He has been 8-2 over last 10.

Boof Boonser is tough to figure. He finally seems adjusted to ML competition but can he relax in his 1st career playoff start?? It seems they have a short leash with him and he has managed only 7 innings twice recently..good chance these guys arent around to start the 6th inning. He has basically been a 5 +inning guy allowing 3 runs. However in 2 of his past 3 home starts he out did those avgs. We are all concerened about the strength of the pens ....Would love to take a shot at the Twins -1.5 RL but have too find out why this line moved so hard.

looking at NYM at 4 due to Lowe's struggles vs LHB and the Mets abundance of them.

GL

The day and second season starts with Oakland visiting Minnesota.

Minny -191 / 7 over -109.

Zito draws the start for Oakland here. One thing I noticed right off the bat is how well both of these teams have hit LHP the past 2 months. The Twins have 2 (big) LH bats in Morneau and Mauer who bat LH but smoke LHP and Zito allowed 6hrs and a 260 clip vs them. Zito is 10-3 away (12-5 team) with a 2.97 ERA but 1.36 WHIP . His day splits were 5-3 (7-4) 4.33 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. This year he didnt pitch in Minny and his only dome start was @ TB and wasnt very sharp there. However last year he was sharp in Minny and tatooed in TB (again). He slipped this yr in the 2nd Half and in 2005 also had a high Day ERA @ 4.50.

Pre-All Star 3.29 8-6 19 126.0 105 49 46 12 57 92 .233
Post-All Star 4.55 8-4 15 95.0 106 50 48 15 42 59 .286

Now Zito has pitched well in Minnesota but I think is a very different lineup now with the maturation of the M&M boys as well as Cuddyer. They added vets Nevin and White who do hit Zito well. Plus some youngsters who hit LHP well. What I am getting at here is I expect Minny to hit Zito despite his tremendous road splits and career numbers in Minny. I know in Santana's starts at home 17-0 of them his Twins have scored 4 runs or more in 15 of them somehow in 2 starts against KC they managed 3 runs. Twins went 8-1 vs LHP in Sept and scored 4 runs or more in 7. Do I need to post Santana 's ridiculous home numbers and great day splits? I dont think so... Johan 17-0 at home and 11-2 in the day.. 30-3 L3 years after the Break with a 1.90 ERA. Only guys that hit Santana are Hurt 6-16 and Bradley 2-2. The rest is something like 12 of 90 against him.

What I am looking at waiting till Tuesday for line movement is Twins ML , Over 4 Twins team total , and over 7 to a lesser degree.

The late afternoon game pits STL @ SD..

Carpenter faces Peavy .Looking at Peavy's splits you have to be concerned with his day splits. However he had only 2 day starts at home in Aug/Sept(both early august). They werent excellent but tell a different story from his day numbers. In those 2 games he went 12 1/3 inn allowed 7 hits 4runs . In 6 2nd H home starts he was impressive. Going 43 1/3 innings 24 hits 7 runs 12 bb 45 K's. He doesnt have great numbers vs STL but I see two things from him. First is he struggled most of the 1st half when he faced STL this yr. He pitched poorly in the playoffs last year vs STL cause of the rib issue. He pitched great in his earlier start in 2005 vs STL. So the key is obviously containing Pujols since STL has struggled away and SD has won 14 of the past 16 at home. Carpenter has struggled away but generally pitched well vs SD and in the day. Cris 5-1 2.40 ERA but Cards just 7-4 in his starts. On the road his ERA is 4.70 and STL is 8-7 in those 15 starts. Last 2 starts Cris has been kept in to long cause the pen is in shambles and his stats suffered.I really like SD here and I am thinking about seeing what the total does but like the over and SD over 3.5 team runs.


The nite game is Det @ NYY

First thing I see is a Tiger squad which LOST 5 straight and the division title to close the season. They went 2-5 vs NYY this season.Nate Robertson tends to pitch well vs the Yanks and has already lost 2-0 to Wang at the Stadium. In 8 of his last 10 starts he has thrown well allowing 3 runs or less the other two were beatings. Away thi syr 6-5 (team 6-9) 3.47 ERA with 10 of 15 going Under. Now at nite 9-8 (team 10-10) 3.42 ERA with 12 of 19 went under. In 6 career starts vs NY he is 1-5 but has 5 very strong outings vs them( the 6 run start all scored late). Wang has pitched well in 3 of 4 vs DET except the 'sweep' game in DET. He is 11-3 (13-4 team) at the Stadium with a 3.03ERA & 1.17 WHIP. His nite splits are stronger then his day numbers. He was 10-2 3.13 in the 2nd Half.Go back over the numbers NYY has struggled against LHP . We get a boost with Sheff returning But Giambi and Abreu have struggled vs LHP and ARod tends to be neutral. We have Cano , Matsui and Damon as well vs the LH side. Playing the UNDER fairly heavy and NYY ML.

Lets talk more tuesday when we get some movements. So like all the home teams , the NYY under and looking at SD under and Oak over.


Plays-

Minnesota -191 (5x)
Just feel that Minny has a huge edge facing a LHP at home where they hit .315 against lefties. True its Barry Zito but he struggled throughout the second half and gets a tough early start time. Minny won 5 of 6 in the Dome vs Oak this year and scored often in there wins.

Over 4 -103 Twins team (4x)

Over 7 -103 Twins / A's (1.5x)

Padres -106 (6.5x)

Under 7 +121 (3x)

U 3.5 Cards +112 (1x)Pads -1.5 RL +211(.5x)


NYY -223 (3x)

Under 9.5 +102 (6x)

Under DET 4runs -119 (possibly)

GL

Tonite Green Bay travels to Philadelphia

Line- Philly -12 / 49.5 ov -110

It's Monday and hopefully ALL had a solid weekend. Some say only degenerates bet these games but I think every game has a winner and possibly some value or angle to find. Can we find it??

We have the Packers coming off a SU win in DET as 6.5 pt underdogs. I said as soon as saw that line what the fuck were they thinking? Somehow some way with GB playing home floppers people 'bought' into DET as this big fav. DET could not get to Favre and was not sacked as he primarily played out of the shotgun. Remember Mike McCarthy is labeled as a QB guru and GB has some weapons now on offense. You would assume the GB OL is playing better and hopefully with he return of Spitz gets another boost. Even without Kearse the Eagles have a soild pass rush( Trent Cole's play) and will find ways to get to the QB. Which likely means rushed decisions and off balance throws IF this happens repeatedly . The GB defense is the counter opposite of say a Browns defense. GB seems to play sound defense but allow to many BIG plays in both the passing and running game. Where as a Cleveland Browns defense seems to bend BUT NEVER break type style.

The Eagles return from the West Coast where they beat up on SF. One think I would like to put out there is what do people think would have happened if Frank Gore didnt fumble at the 1 yard line and Patterson didnt rumble 98 yards for a TD for a 14 pt swing ...31-3 instead of 24-10?? The Eagle defense didnt appear to be able to stop SF in the 2nd Half as the Niners had the ball for 21 minutes in the 2nd Half. The Eagles had lost Dawkins to a concussion and played without Sheppard and Hood at corner which means your talking 4th DB on the depth chart starting. So while Dawkins appears to have shaken the concussion from last week its still unclear to me what the status of Sheppard and Hood are tonite. Remember the NYG couldnt do anything on offense until Hood came into the game when Sheppard exited. He hasnt played well this season.This line seems really HIGH IMO. Last year with McNabb and Sheppard OUT Philly only was -4 at home. True Owens was already suspended and they have upgraded the WR corps but is McNabb that valuable? YES and NO I think. Yes, he is the football sense but a line adjustment of nearly a TD or more? Insane IMO. After all GB didnt have Ahman Green or Greg Jennings and Koren Robinson either.

My problem is its hard to pin a value on GB since there lines appear really off this season. Truth is a true line @ DET should have been -4 which would put the lines as slightily stronger then GB. Truthfully I think they are equal( GB & DET) in value and strength. So would the Lions be 10 ,11 and 12 at Phillly today?? I would have to think it woul dbe in the 8.5 to 10 pt range. I think its interesting that while Favre had a few picks and GB fumbled 3 times he was sacked only once. So there may be hope for him getting sufficient protection tonite . They had a real legit chance @ winning in Philly last year. Both teams are fairly solid against the run although both RB's in last meeting enjoyed success against the other. Which is something these teams might look it despite both gaudy pass stats.It appears Stallworth is going to play and so will Ahman Green both battling hamstring isssues.


One thing flying under the radar IMO is how the books have adjusted this line well total. The highest Philly total was 42 and GB previously 40. I am always well aware when books adjust cause I tend to feel they overadjust. True they have precedent from a few years back but a gamebreaker like TO is not avalable tonite. While the GB offense has scored more the past 2 weeks it also faced two average defenses and benefited from good field position , defensive scores and big play TDS. Will those be options beavailable tonite? After all its been said time and time again how Favre is happy to make the short underneath pass instead of forcing a deep pass nowadays. Which versus a sound defense that if healthy is a real solid defense means longer drives and fewer possessions. Philly also has played defense well but has misleading stats to some degree.

What has happened to the Philadelhia offense in the second half the past 2 weeks?? I would concentrate on this and look to play GB 2nd half and possibly the under 2nd Half. Basically Lito Sheppard is a huge key here tonite as he solidifes the secondary IMO. GB if I recall correctly is 4-0 ATS when getting a TD or better. Tough game to pick since we all think Philly could win by2 TDs or better if GB's protection breaks down.However I do see value in grabbing the Under at 50 or 49.5.

So right now :
Under 50-110 (4x)
Packers +12-105 (3x)

Looking at GB and what to do with the 1st half if anything. good chance I play Und 18.5 GB team.Will update as information becomes available. GL

More...........................

I think the Westbrook LOSS is much more significant especially coupled with the corners being out. Westbrook adds such a dimension to the offense that cannot be replaced. Green yards can be made up and he is no longer a factor in the passing game where as Noah Herron could be IMO. The GB offense has been Favre and his new found short pass success. GB can now focus more on the Philly passing game IMO

NFL Sunday Thoughts

1 PM starts

Under 47 -106 Indy (3x)

Basically the Indy weakness is rush defense and the Jets dont appear to be able to take advantage of that. I dont expect a one dimensional NYJ defense to do much here today as it struggled vs NE till late. The Jets ahev already stated they know they cant get into a high scoring affair with Indy. Mangini will play smart IMO.

Cheifs (Buy it to) -6.5 (6x)

Combination of the KC defense and the inabilty for the offense to make enough plays to sustain drives.

Under 16.5 +100 SF team total(3x) & Under 40 -105 (1.5x)

You have to love the KC defense and how it played vs Denver and Cincy.

Panthers (buy to ) -6.5 (7x)

Hate fading the Saints here but the line was probably fair at -8 and has now become cheap. NO off a huge monday win on a short week will probably hang around but lose late. Carolina really handed TB the opportunity to get back in the game last week. They need a sound performance and a good spot for them. I never like laying chalk with Carolina but the situation dictates this.

Cardinals +7.5 -114 (4x)

Big game for both sides but until the ATL offense becomes a two headed attack I dont like them as big chalk. Like the fact Warner is being called out and his WR's have size advantages on the corners. So far decent against the run as well...Only a TD at Seattle and people loved them in that spot now ATL is in SEA class?

Working on some more- Good Luck straight from vacation in South beach!

Colts -7 -110 (2x)

I witnessed the Pats - Jets game and game and was mostly impressed. The biggest factor NY has is they have heart but is that enough? They wont quit but can they keep up?? Thinking Colts by 10.

TEASER-
Colts +2.5 , Dallas Even , Ravens +10 (4x)

Thoughts-

In the beginning of the week I loved BALT but with this line move I had to stay off it. Same with Buffalo but I expected a line move and didnt get which made me rethink my position.


Fuck it.......
Ravens -107 (2x)


4 PM

Lions +6 -110 (2x)
Over 42 +102 StL (3x)
Pats +6 -110 (5x)
Skins +3 -110 (4x)
Over 33 -110 Oak (3x)

College Football Saturday

Really have to say that I have ha dlittle to no time to look at this card . So playing very little and dont have time to expand on my thoughts. So take this for what its worth.

Early :
Indiana +11 -110 (2x) cancel changed my mind


Under 26.5 Missouri -101 (2x)

Leans-
UConn +101
Virgina -4 -103
Mich St -25 -105
Under 16.5 +100 Memphis Team
Under 42 Wisky / Und 27 Wisky team
Over 54 Mich St

So just the 1 play looking at ND game and might be back with that.

Afternoon matchups

Miami Ohio +12 -110 (2x)

Arizona State ML -135 (3x)

Texas Tech +3.5 -120 (2x)

Under 17.5 Rice -116 (2x)

Northern Illinois -6 -120 (2x)

Small-

Under 26.5 +106 Flordia team (1x)

Over 27.5 texas Tech +114 (1x)

VaTech -8 -110 (1x)

Under Northwestern 10.5 +101 (1x)

Good Luck very little effort put in here so use your judgement

Nite-

Minnesota +10 -103 (5x) ML +350 (1/2x)

Iowa +7 -110 (4x) MLL +220 (.75x)

Mid ten St +3.5 +100 (2x)

Wash St +15 -111 (1x)

Ov Clemson 43.5 team -111(1x)

Kansas +21.5 -101 (2x)

UNLV +3.5 -120 (2x)

TEASER (3x)

UCLA -13 , Fresno -3.5 , Wash +13.5

GL remember I am useless today but couldnt resist.

NFL will be in effect though!

Some MLB-

Reds -134 (2x)

Mets -115 (3x)

Under 4.5 -119 First 5 Inn NYM (1.5x)

Indians -176 (2x)

Over 5.5 +103 DET First 5 Inn (2x) & Over 10 +111 (1x)

Over ATL 4 -117 (2.5x)

Over DET 5.5 -111(1.5x)

GL

Friday Thoughts-

Early baseball

Over 9.5 -101 (1.5x) Over 5 -117 1st 5 Inn (1.5x) Over Cubs 5.5 +106 (1x)

Just some action.... Fogg has been struggling and has bad day splits. Zambrano is inconsistent and the Rockies have been scoring

Mistake by me!

South Florida +4 -110 (6x)
South Fla ML +163 (1.5x)
Under 22.5 RU +105 (1.5x)

Some comments I made at other sites:

Okay guys just started looking at this game and I have to say I dont see why Rutgers is -3.5 pts favs. I mean explain to me what they have done his year. They beat and barely won @ UNC. They led 14-10 at home extended it to 21-10 when UNC was knocking on the door and I vaguely remember the play but on the 1yd line UNC fumbled. That would have made it 21-17 or 16-18 if they go for 2 pts. Next they stop RU after the fumble and drive right down field and score (89yd drive) make it 21-6 miss the deuce. Stop RU again and get the ball back. Now have it 3rd and 6 at the RU 29 and get picked. I understsand there is some woulda, coulda , shoulda involved. However we are talking NORTH CAROLINA. How bad did both VaTech and Clemson smoke this team? Now I have to say that R fumbled deep in UNC territory. However it was 3rd and 15 from the 16 yd line...so really they missed out on 3 pts. The yardage was nearly equal 5.7 per play but NC ran 6 more plays.How bad in UNC they won by 3 against Furman at home. Now I know Furman is sound and a good 1 AA program but this is the ACC. Oh VaTech beat them 35-10 at home and last weeks #19 Clemson beat them 52-7 as only 2 TD favs. The kicker about RU @ UNC is that they wer e4.5 point dogs! Truthfully though the line indicates UNC is a stronger team , I owuld be comfortable saying on a neutral field the game would be a PK or RU -1.5 nothing more.Now The Scarlet Knights come home. They play Illinois. If you watched that game you felt bad for Illinois thats how bad they looked. It was mostly points off takeaways and RU just literally ran the ball everytime 2nd Half think it was 30-0 at half. Again how bad is Illinois? As a bad as they are they did manage to beat RU at home last year in a huge choke job RU. Bottomline just 10 pt favs and Ill is bad folks...Now Ohio U. They started off down 7-0 to Frank Solich 's boyz but ran over 24 straight 1st Half oints. The last a defensive TD which put them up 24-7. How bad is Ohio U's offense? I do recall the beat Pitt at home last year without scoring an offensive TD...they had 2 pick 6's by the same kid!WHile I am knocking Ohio U there defense is solid and if you look the gave RU a game despite the final. Teel was 6 of16 for 83 yds and 3 INTS's. This year a 2 TD -5 Int Ratio and career is 4TD to 14 INTS. Folks RU has no passing game and that is a big change from Ryan Hart. Ray Rice and Brian Leonard are very , very good backs but Leonard for HEISMAN was so laughable it was like anti-American propoganda in the Mid East... simply outrageous! Oh and Ohio after Teel Ints had the ball inside the 20of RU twice and didnt scoer anything....good RU defense or BAD Ohio offense...I chose bad offense.Now they played Howard....Do I have to even go there!So what is so special about RU? Last year they opened at Ill and collapsed in the 4th Q losing 33 -30. Then they played @ Buffalo and won 17-3 to bad they couldnt score enough to cover the 23 pt spread. They went to Syracuse as 2.5 dogs and won 31-9. Now say that OUTLOUD Underdog at Syracuse! Playing against UConns 3 rd stringer they won 26-24 and not cashing against the -3 spread. Say it agains 3rd string QB... There crowning acheivement was going to Lousiville catching 23 and losing 56-5! Funny but South Florida won @ Rutgers catching 2.5 and hosted Lville and won at home vs them.Very interesting matchup. RU lost there QB Hart but have strong backs in Rice and Leonard. Now QB was a problem with Paul Jumiste but he got hurt and Grohe has stepped in a NICE UPGRADE. Problem is USF LOST Andre Hall and both replacements are injured and or suspended.RU as I am trying to explain lacks a passing game and also lost its best WR vs Howard and are now extremely thin @ wr. They do have Clark Harris @ TE who is there playmaker in the passing game. I just dont see how RU is better this year then last? The defense looks solid but how could it not with those opponents? RU has taken a step back with Teel at QB, as good teams can focus on the run.USF is a bit tougher to figure cause it relies so heavily on Grohe. I havent seen the kid play. I was impressed that he reportedly outplayed Jumiste in camp a senior and returning starter. I was impressed whne called upon vs McNeese St he was ready to play and led the offense. I was somewhat impressed after watching UCF tonite he received Big East Player of the week for his 300yd game against them. I dont think he played that badly vs KU a solid defensive team on the road. Openin drive the kid takes them downfield but after 77 yards or so they cant convert a 4th and 1. Losing 13-7 to KU isnt a bad thing in my back. I though KU outplayed Toledo earlier. Sure KU had its backup QB but Barraman had started at one time and was a senior. I think people will knock USF for the Fla Int game but they were 20 pt chalk something RU wasnt versus Illinois or Ohio U . They did give FIU 13 of the 20 points they scored ...punt return and pick 6. Also Grohe is young hewill be up and down...he was down vs FIU and rebounded to play well @ UCF. I for one knw that USF returns 7 of 11 on defense. I know they have played solid defense this year and definetly last year. Isnt holding WVU to 28 impressive or Lville 14??Still working on this game but RU is one dimensonal..pure rushing attack. Its tough to be like that and score on the road and tougher to be road chalk. I said that with SoMiss tonite and say what you want but I still feel like UCF outplayed them. Look at the favt UCF twice walked awy with no points after driving 75-85 yards! Fumble at the 1 and missed 26 yarder! Then take into account all of SoMiss points came after momentum changing plays.I think RU struggles to score here. I also said that the NE and Denver line was bad , the Falcon line was inflated and today I told the UCF line was INflated! Iwas righ three times. Its late and I am going to Fla tmrw so to be continued.However I think this probably should be a PKem . Remember RU last year at home was ONLY -2.5 and lost. I dont see RU as being better in 2006 with Teel , some WR;s questions and a untested defense that lost some core players from 2005.


More:

We know the South Fla offense is one dimensional. The great thing about that is they arent the favorite and they dont have to win by a certain amount. I am more concerned about RU offense versus the USF defense.You have to score when playing as ROAD CHALK and RU hasnt shown they can IMO. All you have to is disprove the favorite and the dog becomes the play in my eyes. There are only two choices right? RU has shown what on offense? Especially if the opposing teams pathetic offense isnt giving them points. Trust me Ohio u and Illinois will be bottomfeeders in offensive rankingsIt's clear that Matt Grohe is the USF offense and thats a concern. The kid is a FROSH with alot of weight on his shoulders. The key for me was his performance @ UCF amd @ Kansas. The KU game doesnt show that he took the offense 77 yards on the opening drive but they went for it on 4th down and failed. To me its mighty impressive a Freshman QB can go to a big school like KU who has a good defense and just drive the ball without a running game. Thats a helluva alot more then Mike Teel has done. Remember 4 TDS in Teels longer career and Grohe had 3 in his 1st road game. I continue to think for some reason people miss that rushing yards are great but if you cant throw the ball you cant convert third downs. If you cant convert 3rd downs and sustain drives you wont score TDs but settle for FGS. My approach is not what one team can do BUT what the ROAD fav cant do. I have been saying the past few nites. ATL great rushing numbers but how come just 34 points in 2 games? Michael Vick and the passing game. Last nite great Frosh runner for SoMiss but they cant move the ball consistently thru the air IMO. What happened with the SoMiss offense last nite? Couldnt do anything unless it was off a momentum changing play against UCF offense. Now I dont like the fact USF really doesnt have any RB's..but again they are the underdog. And again 21 points @ UNC or 17 at home vs Ohio or 19 vs Illinois doesnt show me much.The fact some people keep glossing over is North Carolina and Illinois are pathetic BIG CONFERENCE schools. These teams are getting whipped every week and Rutgers didnt play that well versus them. It seems to be missed that @ UNC they were up 21-10 and with NC on the 1yd line the Heels fumbled. That would have made it 21-16,17,or 18 depending on the PAT decision. Then RU doesnt do anything on offense and punt it back. UNC after just missing a score goes down the field and scores a TD to make a 5pt game. The RU punts again and UNC gets the ball to the RU 29 but there is an INT and a 21-16 final. This wasnt some dominanting performance. Look at what Vatech and Clemson did to Carolina...beatings! It was a narrow win versus a bad team. Granted in years past they may have blown that type of game. They are UNTESTED! If you saw the Illini game you KNOW that all Illinois did was shoot itself in the foot starting with a blocked punt for a TD and then bad passes and a pick 6. It was 14-0 and RU didnt do anything on offense. Please dont praise the RU defense either cause these programs suck and there offense's suck. Just look at what Illinois does on the road typically...@ Purdue Lost 37-3 , @ Ohio State lost 40-2 , @Indiana 36-13 the Hoosiers are the team closest to them in the Big Ten, @ Iowa 35-7. They last decent game they played under Zook was @ Cal were they lost 35-20. Illinois is repeatedly embarrassed on the road and they only managed 13 against Indiana. It was iffy they would crack 10 vs Rutgers from the getgo. Big deal instead of 10 they got blanked. How good is RU well last year Indiana was home and won 36-13 as 7 point favs . This year RU is home and they lay -10.5 and win 33-0! That tells me something when a sperad is so close..Take awaythe Ohio game? Thats the only decent defense he played and he failed miserably! Thats my point. The other 3 games are modest? He played UNC , Illinois and Howard and all he could do was 2 TDs and 2 Ints with a 146 ,145 ,133 yards...I know someone will say they didnt have to throw...come'on. He played in relief @ McNeese St and it was his first college game! They were scoreless till he took over in the 2nd and finished with 41points. I would absolutely agree that he didnt play well vs Fla Intl but that isnt such a bad program...they almost won @ Maryland this weekend. Not to mention his 1st careet start as a FROSH. FIU is probably better then the RU opponents outside of UNC. The key is they were 20 point favorites against FIU. Thats the same number for the FIU game @ Maryalnd!. That line opened at 20 and closed at 20 IF it was so obvious that South Fla stunk why didnt they pound that line down? Simple cause going in expecattaions were USF could win by 3TDS. A young QB had a bad day thats why you dont lay 20- poinst with unproven QB's at home or lay it with them on the road especially to back a public fav.I cant believe you are saying USF cant run for beans. No kidding they graduated Andre Hall and both his replacements are gone. One back got hurt in the opener and another suspended. USF doesnt even have a RB! They do but you get my point, they really dont. That game against UCF got him Big East Player of the Week I believe. Another key was USF was favored an won on the road with a young QB! Now @ Kansas the numbers dont look good but thats a very solid defense and tough place to play. Go check KU at home last season. They started sloppy this year but I believe were without the star corner first 2 games. Playing @ KU is much tougher then playing @ UNC. USF got so much respect they were only 3 pt dogs. Rutgers was +4.5 @ UNC. We are all dealing in opinions its just we have to be objective. USF struggled against both because they have a young QB who they heavily rely on. Though Grohe did NOT struggle @UCF he struggled in his 1st college start vs FIU.Again who has Rutgers played? They didnt blowout UNC so they smoked Illinois and Howard at home ....you have to be kidding! They didnt blowout Ohio U they won 24-7 , didnt score in the 2nd Half and had a defensive TD. Ohio U is a pathetic offense like I tried to explain and had the ball TWICE inside the Rutgers 20 and scored 0 points due to a missed FG and INT in the 2nd Half. How does that game look at 24-17?You say they pass when they need to ....INCORRECT. They lead 30-0 vs Illi but how many did they score in the 2nd Half? Answer 3! If this rushing attack is so good how come they couldnt score 1 time in the 2nd H? I see big programs with bug leads at half jusr un over teams. Hpow come RU cant? Illi defense isnt good where they trying that hard down 30-0 or is the RU running game overrated. They led 24-7 @ half vs Ohio U how come they had scoreless 2nd Half? Teel has many opportunities to move the chains but couldnt sustain a drive and what happened with that great running game. It should be able to just run at will. How ocme UNC kept getting chances to comeback why could RU just run out the clock? Okay cause RU coulnt make 1st downs!Its not a personal attack. Its just the same arguement ever RU backer gives. No one has addressed how RU didnt travel well last year , how RU hasnt had a tough opponent. USF played good defense IMO last year holding WV to 28 and Lville to 14. This isnt Pat WHite @ WV and Steve Slayton. Teel cant scramble or run like White....not the same thing and WVU ground game did it versus Georgia...I like USF defense the most here. I dont liek having to trust a freshman QB in his 1st conference game. Problem is I dont see him failing much so far.Again lines are the KEY...USF was only +3 to Kansas who I happen to think is a tough win at home. Also USF beat them @ Rutger slast year and teh Knights were -2.5 pt favs ...why a year later on teh road with a wosre QB ar they -4? I am trying to say this team isnt as good as last years

Random comments:

Recap-

Rutgers

1- In my opinion they have played a ridiculously easily schedule and worse have had weak spreads. Which means they werent laying big wood against bad teams and were catching points to bad teams away. Yes, I do believe USF has played a slightily tougher schedule partially because they have traveled twice.I would say FIU and @UCF are better then Illinois and Ohio U in New Brunswick. Losing by 6 @ Kansas is probably tougher then winning by 5 @ UNC.2- Cant expect Mike Teel to make plays in the passing game. On top of which he loses another WR. So that gives you a one dimensonal offense and the defense can focus on stopping the run. If you lay points on the road IMO you need to be balanced offensively and this team is NOT. 3- How is Rutgers a team that was -2.5 pt favs last year at home now laying 4 on the road to th eteam that defeated them?? 4- As much as I respect how well the defense has played IMO the offenses have simply been overmatched. Also not just by RU but any school they travel to.USF-1- They dont have a running back that generates a running game. However unlike RU there OFFENSE is not one dimensional due to QB MAtt Grohe. You have to respect both facets of his game or he will beat you with one of them.2- Can Grohe continue to improve? Being a redshirt Frosh I believe so. I truly believe if you look at this game objectively the game should be a PK em. Remember that RU was dogged at UNC, that last year these teams were considered even to USF being skightily better. RU hasnt improved all that much( excpt if this defense is for real whuch going back to UNC is a ?) and while USF lost Andre Hall it switched from being dependent on him to dependent on Grohe a huge upgrade of Julmiste. Should be a great game and this is huge for RU they must prove they are for real. They have talent BUT no tests.....

Thursday Thoughts

Houston @ Pitt

Well the Astros are trying to make one of the most amazing comebacks ever. However they have to be running on fumes at this point. This weeked was highlighted by a Monday makeup game instead of an off day. Remember the played a huge 4 game set vs STL and got the sweep with the last game being a Sunday Nite and then had to fly to Philly....then to Pitt.

Oswalt's has incredible day splits 5-1 1.94ERA and is facing a team who hits just .254 in the day and avgs 4.1 runs. Houston doesnt hit that much in day games(but they pitch well3.7 runs) and vs LHP apprx 4.4 runs per. Gorzelanny is a Solid young SP I am somewhat concerned that he isnt 100% still since returning.

I think you have a couple teams with average offensive day splits. They have to be exhausted after the 15 inning affair last nite and then ahving to play @ 12:30...we know Houston is exhausted but postseason is a great motivator. I expect a pitchers duel and while The Astros are thin in the pen you can expect 7 or 8 here from Roy. It looks great to fade the Astros here but I cant...Roy Oswalt is usually at his best come August and September....this year hasnt been any different.

I think after 10 scoreless innings sometimes the offensive struggles carry over to teh next day.

Plays-
Under 4 -117 First 5 innings (2x) Under 8 -128 (1.5x) Pirates +1.5 RL +108 (1x)

Just added-

Under 8.5 -117 DET & TOR (3x)

Really based on the pitching matchups. Both guys throwing extremely well and a reasonable number here with 8.5. Tor hits well vsLHP but that seems to have faded as teh season wore on. First Foster behind the dish scared me but I noticed he had only two 8.5 totals all season and they both went under. Which is significant cause all his starts had 9 or higher totals thats why his runs per game is higher. He wasnt getting quality SP matchups to call...at least thats my theory. Still a game DET needs so as well...


Rockies +120 (2x)

Kim has actually faced LA five times this sasona nd four last year. In all but one start at the ned of last season did Kim fail to go at least 6 innings and allow 3 runs or less.....He does pitch better at home as well. Despite LA needing this win I still see a clear edge in SP despite Pennys success at Coors( 10-2 lifetime 2.51 vs Colorado).Penny struggled in the 2nd H outside a fewexcellent starts. He went from 10-2 2.91 Era to 6-7 with a 5.99 ERA and his BAA is 311 ! Fading Penny and might look at the over....

GL

Act II

BYU +7 -110 (2x) & Under 25.5 +107 BYU Team Total (1x)

Have to be somewhat concerned with John Beck's ankles but I think he could have played last week and it was precautionary day off. Also concernedwith Hobsb and Merrill apparently playing. Still I just dont get impressed by the TCU offense and to me Texas Tech gimmick offense isnt a defensive test. Beck threw for over 500 yards vs TCU last year . Now TCU gets an edge in preparation as well. Bottom line is there are resons to adjust this line I just felt -4 was where it should been...

Act III- MLB

Marlins -140(3x)

Not sure of where Nolacso is healthwise which is a minor concern. However as I stated in game 1 the Reds have struggled away and winning consecutive games. Lohse has lost 8 of 10 starts despite some good efforts. He is 0-5 away and with Cincy lineup being thin it will be even harder to get run support. Flat out just thought this line was to LOW.

Phillies -144 (4x) & Under 4.5 +108 (1x) First 5 Inn

Just not going to fade Leiber at this point of the season pitching a baig game. I know what he can do in AUG & SEPT as a NY fan. O'Connor seemsto lose gas in the 5thinning these days.

Mets -120 (now 4x from 3x)

Think NY has a huge edge in SP with this matchup and they need to avoid the sweep.

DBacks +128 (1.5x) & ARL +250(.5x)

Riding Batista who has been pitching well and fading SD on the road as well as Peavy.

Devil Rays +155 (2.5x) & ARL +229 (1.5x) & Over 4.5 -107 TB team (2x)

You have to be NUTS to back TB on the road with only 3 2nd H wins. Its the end of the year I have done well in building a bankroll with baseball so the value is worth the gamble. I see Howell pitching well since his return outside of a start at Tor who kills LHP while Byrd as struggled last 5 weeks. The key is Cle dropping 22 of 32 vs LHP and Howell is LH!

Under 4 +106 First 5 Innings Oakland (2x)

Zito vs Lackey with players rested. barry's usually good in LA and Lackey loves pitching vs Oakland though I am midly concerned he just faced them.


Looking @ Milw still, have a play on the NYY game but cant find it at the moment from earlier , and thing Auburn and played SC und 11.5pts

ACT III-

Under 11 NYY -116 (2x) & NYY under 6 -110 team (1x)

Noticed that NY was 4-16 over with 11 totals and 0-10 over at home with 11 totals. Cabrera was better on the road in the 1st H and switched form being better at home in the 2nd H. The big guy has some decent starts vs NY in his career mainly IMO cause he is overpowering. Rollin the dice...

Brewers +137 (1x)

Only cause Davis has won 5 of 6 starts in STL as a Brewer.

Indians +1.5 RL -130 (1.5x) forget this one

Was interested in KC before DET lost this afternoon.

Auburn -13 -110 (1.5x) & Under 11.5 -110 SC team total

The way the BYU game has started it makes it hard for me to take this game. I did say I would take Auburn if this was knocked down to -13 on Thusday but I always like the BYU play more just hated TCU getting its backs back. Basically I dont see how or why SC breaks 10 points.

GL

Wed Thoughts- Travel day for me


MLB

Diamondbacks +104 (4x) ARL -1.5 +178 (2x) Over 9 -109 (1.5x)

Vargas on the road vs Sanchez who has been hit hard past 2 starts. Look at Vargas on the road and he usually gets puts out a solid game. he has very solid day splits and I believe ARI despite dropping 8 of 9 day games , struggling on the road and in SF has won 9 of 11 Vargas day starts.

Didnt post it but played SFG last nite so rolling that money over here. Sanchez has decent day splits but mostaly as a reliever. If he ha s short outing you get into that SF pen which is a positive. Basically a Sanhez fade coupled with backing Vargas on a road / day start!

GL........Looking at South Florida on FRIDAY!

Tuesday Thoughts

First in response to chancedog's last comments yesterday. You know I say what I feel wrong or right. Thanks for bringing up the Damon SB comment though been thinking about that and forgot who I discussed it with. I honestly just felt that NY would run a bit more then Boston had and thought the jump from 19 to 25-30 wasnt a big deal. I just dont believe these age arguements. Hate hearing a guy is 34 , 37 and slowing down ...its BS. You take care of yourself and you will slow the aging process. Bonds is teh perefct example look at what he is doing at 42 and Clemens at 44. Bonds overall numbers arent awesome but take what he has done since August 1st. In 132 atbats 12hrs and 32 Rbis!(think 325BAA)..the key is being healthy and not battling injuries. I digress! With NE thats sort of my point with Gabriel this guy looked good in OAK at times , had a great preseason comes to NE and is lost in the shuffle. After 2.5 games he finally gets the ball. I would hope they continue to look for him liek they did in teh 2nd H. Good points about the no huddle and DEN being tired. I just think we have to see what injuries Cincy has to still deal with. They couldnt stop Parker w/o the LB's and Maroney is a BEAST. Also huge game for Cincy could we see a letdown in emotion and performance for this game. They wont say it but afer watching NE I am sure there is les
s excitement. Finally NE is +6 and Cle was +10....think about that? Line also states Cincy would be favored in NE?

College Football

Central Florida +6 +100 (5x) ML +214 (1.25x)

Show some patience before putting this in could run higher. You can easily get +7 -120 and +225 still waiting.

Again we have what in my opinion is an inflated line. I think I am very sound in understanding what a line should be. This game IMO with an unproven QB making his 1st conference road start and relying on a Frosh star RB is high. I am not saying SoMiss isnt better but it shouldnt be higher then -3 and probaly closer -2.

Why do I say this. First dont get wrapped up into this seasons first 3 games. Both teams played a shit school. USM played Southeastern Louisana while UCF hosted Nova. Cant claim to know much about either program but I would guess Nova is a better program. They both played @ Florida . neither team played well but SoMiss probably was more respectable. two things I take from that common opponent. First and very important is one team opened +23 and the other +20. Thats 3 point difference and basically means if Somiss faced UCF on a neutral field it would be -3 point favs. Linesmakers do not quickly adjust there lines, its a known fact! So they might tweak it up a point or two cause So Miss perfomred better ...so say -5 neutral field which if played at UCF mean So Miss would be just -2....typically a 3 point home field edge. Also last year these teams met in SoMiss as the Golden Eagles were 8.5 pt favs. Now they did blowout UCF but there are two things I see. First was UCF come out of nowhere last year so you can believe that there lines were generally undervaluing them. Except maybe here cause after winning 3 straight there was some talk about UCF going into this game. So if 8.5 was correct or maybe say it should have been -10 worst case what does that mean line wise if they played @ UCF? It means that So Miss would be -3 or -4 @ UCF. Now SoMiss lost its star QB Dustin Almond and now has some issues at RB with 2 guys quitting. So you would have to think So Miss has lost some strength. UCF basically returns there entire team from last year and there were young. So if anything that -3 or -4 becomes -2 or -3 in my eyes. Which is where I have said this line should be. Should be -2 and it is -6 you have to love when the BETTING PUBLIC 'BUYS' into a bad line and road chalk! Didnt the Browns have zero chance in teh NFLon SUnday or how about NCST.

Now lets talk FOOTBALL. UCF played last game a 24-17 lost to USF without its star RB who returns here. What has killed UCF in the early going is its pass defense. Both USF and FLA throw all day against the defense but didnt do that much in the running game. The running game has been the USM offense. So there is a good chance it will be slowed today forcing USM to throw the ball. This hasnt been a strong suit for them. So I like that USM probably cant exploit UCF defensive weakness and conversely UCF defense can probably slow USM offesnive weakness. USM has a good FG kicker which I see as a clear edge.

Again you have inexperienced players leading Southern Miss facing George O'Leary who is emphasizing conference play and has a players who played for the Conference Championship and in the Hawaii Bowl where they lost by 1 point. UCF has underperformed to a degree but we didnt expect much from FLA and despite being home dogs most expected them to beat South Fla but they didnt havethere star RB( was tied @ 10 after 3 Q).

I am sure I have more to say on this game but cant remember right now. Bottomline is I am comfortable with my assessment this is a INFLATED LINE. I wont be suprised to see UCF win tonite and I expect them to SU.


Act II MLB-

Marlins -169 (4x)

Little nervous about backing FLA after they looked so horrible in Philly. While D-Train has not faced Cincy since April when he was so-so he has dominanted them throughout his career. Obviously new faces in Cincy now but the key bats of Aurilia and Dunn I believe were something in the neighborhood of 2-22(think Dunn 0-9). The Reds have dropped 15 of 18 away(2-9 off a win) and start Belisle who has ben in the pen last year. I thought it was interesting Belisle started last April vs Willis in Fla and that line was -220. I also have noticed that Cincy was 0-6 in the 2nd H facing a LHP on the road. Despite just a 5-3 record at home Willis has been solid in the 2nd Half there. Only allowed more then 3 runs 1 time and has 6 straight with 3 or less.

Some supporting trends were FLA(9-1 L10 @ home) 14-3 L17(25-10 L35) at home vs team with a losing record. They are 23-9 L32 at home vs RHP and 18-5 L23 vs Central.

Under 4.5 -101 1st 5 Innings NYM & ATL (2x)

Little dicey backing Perez on the road but he was solid last time out in FLA. He also pitched a 9 inning shutout vs ATL already. I feel that Perez is usually tough for 4 or 5 innings before teams catch up to him or he just walks to many. Now ATL for the most part doesnt hit LHP all that well. Smoltz opposes NY and he has been so good at home since returning to the rotation in 2005. You never know what NY is showing up but I hope Smoltz continues to pitch like he last few. Liked the job he did in Coors last time out.

Cubbies +109 (1.5x) & ARL -1.5 +209 (1x)

I could look stupid fading MILW during a nice win streak but this would be a season high if they go it. What I saw at home was an underavlued club playing two bad road teams STL and SFG who both have tremendous pitching issues.The Brewer bats woke up and put up some nice runs but there pitching I thought failed them They faced two awful pens in STL and SFG. Now they travel to Chi who also stinks but not sure they should be a dog here. After all MILW is 25-50 Away! Thats one win out of every series basically!!Better they are only 5-11 away vs LHP this season. So while Villanueva has impressed he its still a small sample size. While Sean Marshall has looked like shit since his return he is still pitching for a spot in the 2006 rotation. They key is he is LHP and CHI seems to score when he pitches. MILW 16-36 L52 away

Cardinals -164 (3x)

There pen is AWFUL and they have cost me a bunch past week. However this is Cris Carpenter plain nad simple. The man has a 1.46 Home ERA! Woody Williams has been solid over the past 3 but struggled in a few starts last year vs STL his former team. Hopefully Carpeneter continues to dominant at home and teh bullpen si atking out of the equation. The under isnt a bad call here worst case might be 5-3 but thinking 4-2 I just worry how long Williams last cause SD pen hasnt been so good eiother lately. Both SP track records are so-so vs the opponent.

Rockies +110 (5x) & ARL +198(1x) & Over 9.5 -114 (4x)

Big play with a small reason. I dont like Maddux on the road especially in Coors with the ball flying. Thought this ws more of a PK game with Jennings who has pitched well at home this season. LAD 1-9 L9 off a win. Maddux 6-10 in 16 away starts and Jennings 8-6 at hoem with a 3.28 ERA. Maddux ERA is above 5 on the road with a 1.45 WHIP. The bats have been alive in Colorado for weeks now.

Now the AL

Under 3 runs KC team -131 (2x) & MIN -1.5 RL -151 (2x)

Basically its Johan at home versus a team tha I feel quit or is distracted with Bell's condition. In 4 of the past 5 at home vs KC he has allowed 0 or 1 runs. Perez has been hit hard in hi sonly 2 career starts vs Minny.

Over 5 -103 Tigers & Jays 1st 5 Innings(2x)

Bonderman has some issues at home . He is either real good orr eal bad very little inbewteen. Tor won 7 of 10 playing well of late. The trot out McGown who has failed as SP before aand is a question mark.

Tribe -148(2x)

Sabathia has been strong vs Chitown who is eliminated from the playoff hunt. They trut out Vazquez who has lost 8 straight starts.

NYY -214 (2x)

Not sure there is value here but no matter what lineup we have , my YANKS are loaded. Penn solid last time out but it was TB! He has struggled on teh road in his short MLB career like al young SP's do. Lidle generally has been solid at home outside of his last outing. Definetly a show me start for him with Moose and RJ hurt and Wright pitching well.

Parlay - Red Sox -194 & A's -138 (1.5x)

Team totals

Over 4 +127 Toronto (1x)

Over 4 -145 Colorado (1x)

Under 25.5 pts SoMiss +137(1x)

Thats it I think! GL