Saturday October 7th Thoughts

NCAAF

Auburn -14 -120 (3x) -13.5 -105 (1x)
Over 28-108 Auburn (1.5x)

I just see ARK skating by me by the skin of there teeth. They snuck out of Vandy witha point win thanks to a late missed 48yd FG but Mustain played well. Then vs Bama they couldnt hold a lead and won in OT thanks to a missed or blocked XP. Mustain could not move the offense at all in the 2nd Half. He finished 7 of 22 for 97 yards...now he travels to Auburn!

Again you would suspect that the ARK offense struggles against a top tier defense. While Auburn with Irons had no problem running on ARK last season and USC did hang 50 on them. The Bama QB played well against them as well. Florida being on deck is concerning but the fcat they struggled vs South Carolina hopefully puts emphasis on this matchup.

Penn State -2.5 -110 (4x) closed at PK ...uhhh
Unde 21.5 -108 Minnesota team(2x)

Even when Minnesota was the superior progran they struggled vs the Nittany Lion defense. Winning 20-14 in 2003 and 16-7 at home in 2004. Last year Penn State whipped them. While Morrelli is unproven on the road he isnt facing a solid defense as Michigan shredded them for 500+ yards and should have put up more then 28. Tony Hunt played well last week and ran all over Minny last year.

The Penn State defense is coming together and becoming a unit that is similiar to last seasons IMO.

Miami -18 -104 (4x)
Over 43 -105 (1.5x)
Miami over 30.5 -113 (2x)

North Carolina cannot stop the run and that will always open the passing game. They have allowed on average over 200yds per game on the ground...James is a little nicked up but I read Moss might return..

I generally think the Miami offense looked much better then the 14-13 final. They drove up the field on there opening drive going 80 yards and scored. Next drive they moved it 30 or 40 yards
but were picked and it seemed they were lost till half. After halftime they put apprx 250 yards of offense on 4 drives. They had the ball nearly the entire 4th quarter but had zero points. They missed a short FG and ran the clock out the final 5 minutes....127yards and 0 points! Clemson , Furman and VaTech all put up 35.

Indiana +8.5 -110 (5x) ML +290(1x)
Under 45 -105 (1.5x)

My points got deleted...As handicappers we are taught not to pay to much attention to last week. Michigan State clearly did not show up vs Illinois after CHOKING versus Notre Dame. There is no question in my mind thats all that happened there.

While you could argue that maybe the Hoeppner situation took away from Indiana's play. I think alot of saw a Wisky team grow up abit versus Michigan the previous week and this was carry over.

Both teams inconsistent on offense . Just remember 2 weeks ago Illy caught 21 at home vs Iowa now they are a TD favorite to a team who was only +10 at home vs Wisky. Expecting a low scroing game.....

Under 41 -105 Western Michigan & Ohio (2.5x)

Two solid defenses with offenses that are unproven. Ohio has always been tough defensively at home and should keep WMU to under 20 points here. Ohio has not had an offense under Solich yet....WMU held down Virginia and Toledo.

Wake Forest +17 -110 (4x)

To me this is FSU & NCST all over again...its always a tight game. Clemson lost Stovall and Merriweather also appears unavailable. Wake has been solid on defense and I give them credit for winning @ UConn and @ Miss even though those programs are down. The Clemson offense didnt lokk as solid at FSU or BC this season and there defense didnt appear to be an elit e unit.

Syracuse +7.5 -120 (4x) ML +248(.75x)

I cant believe in Pitt yet. They had one quality team in Mich State and were blown out and run all over. Enter Syracuse new found weapon the running game. I cant take anything from winning @ Cincy early beating teams like Virginia and Toledo w/o its QB at home. The Cuse always are tough in the DOME and I expect the same again. Thinking over though....

Purdue +11 -105 (2x)

The Iowa offense has struggled this season and Purdue can throw the ball and make plays in the passing game. Just think Purdue can keep it a game all afternoon.

This is just the NOON starts. I had two leans over Kansas and Over Pitt.

Added:
Over 52 +102 Kansas (1x)
Teaser SDST +39 , Over 33 Pitt / Cuse and UCLA -1.5 (2x)

Act II: Mid Afternoon starts-

Buffalo +4 -108 (2x)

Feel that Ball State cant play defense and this Buffalo team has grown up since the opener vs Temple.

Air Force ML -131 (4x) Under 50 -108 (2x)

Revenge for last years 10 pt collapse in the final 3minutes. Actually Navy hasnt impressed me since the blew out two of the worst offenses in college in Conn and Stanford. They struggled in all 3 home games vs ECU , UMass and Tulsa. Decent teams but think if Navy was as good as portayed they would have more clearly won those games.

Air Force I think has played well in all 3 games and has the better defense.

Tulane +3 -120 (2x) ML +119 (1x)

Rice as road chalk .....Ricard will have a day IMO.

Under 39 -103 Mississippi (3x)
Miss +105 ML (2x)

Where is the offense coming from here...Think Miss can build off the Georgia game here

Four bad teams peaking my interest:
Miss St +21 -108 (3x) added
Thinking similiar game to ECU& improving offensefor MSU
Temple +24 -108 (1x)

SDST +29 (teased)

Stanford +29.5 (still unsure of there WR situation)

ACT III

Under 41 -102 Florida & LSU (4x)
Fla -114 (4x)

Sorry cant be impressed by LSU. They played 1 good defense and managed a FG. They wont on Florida and I think Fla schedule and the fact they playing home is a huge bonus IMO. Wynn not playing stinks but I dont expect offenses to win this game only lose it.

USC -19 -107 (2x)

Huskies played 3 tough games in a row and this USC team will be tough to score on..thinking WASH cant top 14 points here. Big difference when you look at it as USC 3 TD fav @ Zona while WASH was a FG DOG.....

Jarrett returns and much like vs Nebraska its great to back the Trojans when the Public doubts them....

Under 49 -110 Texas / OU (3x)
Oklahoma +4.5 -110 (2x)

Love the how the TEXAS defense is playing this year and expect a close game here. Not sold on the Texas offense yet and how much of passing game they will have....

Maryland +14 -110 (2x)

GTech seems to play to the level of there opponents. Nice games vs ND and VaTech as dogs but flat vs Troy and Virginia.

Over 34.5 -108 Michigan team (3x)

Love how Michigan is playing and Mich St well we dont know...I do Hart ran for 200 yards last year vs the Spartans and Henne has been on point....

New Mex State ML +100 (2x)

Idaho fade....

East Carolina -6 -120 (2x) & Under 42 .5 -110 (2x)

Beating Duke proves what?

Leans -
Mich State +15 , Baylor +6 +100 (1x), Ok St ML


Night time:

Missouri +4.5 -105 (2x)

Unimpressed by Tech to this point.....

Cal -4.5 -115 (3x)
Over 60 -110 Cal (3x)

Like the Bear offense and think they have a significant edge in defense.

Boise St -35 -120 (2x)
Over 46.5 team -113 (1x)

Obviously I expect a 49 + nite from them.

Fresno State -14.5 -105 1st H (1.5x)

Its Utah State...either free money or sucker...

Nevada +12 -110 (2x)

Just think over 10 is inflated.. Nevada can score..

North Texas +3 -112 (2x)

favorite is 0-5 SU..

Kentucky +5 -102 (4x)

Wildcats can score and still think SC is average on offense and defense ...

Bama -28 -120 (2x)

Duke has been shutout in three of 4....Bama defense should lead to points

leans-

ULmOnroe +5.5
Iowa State +7
CMU +2.5
Georgia +2.5
UTEP -11
Houston -17
UCLA -11.5
Wash St -3

GL - hate these big cards!