Friday Thoughts-

Early baseball

Over 9.5 -101 (1.5x) Over 5 -117 1st 5 Inn (1.5x) Over Cubs 5.5 +106 (1x)

Just some action.... Fogg has been struggling and has bad day splits. Zambrano is inconsistent and the Rockies have been scoring

Mistake by me!

South Florida +4 -110 (6x)
South Fla ML +163 (1.5x)
Under 22.5 RU +105 (1.5x)

Some comments I made at other sites:

Okay guys just started looking at this game and I have to say I dont see why Rutgers is -3.5 pts favs. I mean explain to me what they have done his year. They beat and barely won @ UNC. They led 14-10 at home extended it to 21-10 when UNC was knocking on the door and I vaguely remember the play but on the 1yd line UNC fumbled. That would have made it 21-17 or 16-18 if they go for 2 pts. Next they stop RU after the fumble and drive right down field and score (89yd drive) make it 21-6 miss the deuce. Stop RU again and get the ball back. Now have it 3rd and 6 at the RU 29 and get picked. I understsand there is some woulda, coulda , shoulda involved. However we are talking NORTH CAROLINA. How bad did both VaTech and Clemson smoke this team? Now I have to say that R fumbled deep in UNC territory. However it was 3rd and 15 from the 16 yd line...so really they missed out on 3 pts. The yardage was nearly equal 5.7 per play but NC ran 6 more plays.How bad in UNC they won by 3 against Furman at home. Now I know Furman is sound and a good 1 AA program but this is the ACC. Oh VaTech beat them 35-10 at home and last weeks #19 Clemson beat them 52-7 as only 2 TD favs. The kicker about RU @ UNC is that they wer e4.5 point dogs! Truthfully though the line indicates UNC is a stronger team , I owuld be comfortable saying on a neutral field the game would be a PK or RU -1.5 nothing more.Now The Scarlet Knights come home. They play Illinois. If you watched that game you felt bad for Illinois thats how bad they looked. It was mostly points off takeaways and RU just literally ran the ball everytime 2nd Half think it was 30-0 at half. Again how bad is Illinois? As a bad as they are they did manage to beat RU at home last year in a huge choke job RU. Bottomline just 10 pt favs and Ill is bad folks...Now Ohio U. They started off down 7-0 to Frank Solich 's boyz but ran over 24 straight 1st Half oints. The last a defensive TD which put them up 24-7. How bad is Ohio U's offense? I do recall the beat Pitt at home last year without scoring an offensive TD...they had 2 pick 6's by the same kid!WHile I am knocking Ohio U there defense is solid and if you look the gave RU a game despite the final. Teel was 6 of16 for 83 yds and 3 INTS's. This year a 2 TD -5 Int Ratio and career is 4TD to 14 INTS. Folks RU has no passing game and that is a big change from Ryan Hart. Ray Rice and Brian Leonard are very , very good backs but Leonard for HEISMAN was so laughable it was like anti-American propoganda in the Mid East... simply outrageous! Oh and Ohio after Teel Ints had the ball inside the 20of RU twice and didnt scoer anything....good RU defense or BAD Ohio offense...I chose bad offense.Now they played Howard....Do I have to even go there!So what is so special about RU? Last year they opened at Ill and collapsed in the 4th Q losing 33 -30. Then they played @ Buffalo and won 17-3 to bad they couldnt score enough to cover the 23 pt spread. They went to Syracuse as 2.5 dogs and won 31-9. Now say that OUTLOUD Underdog at Syracuse! Playing against UConns 3 rd stringer they won 26-24 and not cashing against the -3 spread. Say it agains 3rd string QB... There crowning acheivement was going to Lousiville catching 23 and losing 56-5! Funny but South Florida won @ Rutgers catching 2.5 and hosted Lville and won at home vs them.Very interesting matchup. RU lost there QB Hart but have strong backs in Rice and Leonard. Now QB was a problem with Paul Jumiste but he got hurt and Grohe has stepped in a NICE UPGRADE. Problem is USF LOST Andre Hall and both replacements are injured and or suspended.RU as I am trying to explain lacks a passing game and also lost its best WR vs Howard and are now extremely thin @ wr. They do have Clark Harris @ TE who is there playmaker in the passing game. I just dont see how RU is better this year then last? The defense looks solid but how could it not with those opponents? RU has taken a step back with Teel at QB, as good teams can focus on the run.USF is a bit tougher to figure cause it relies so heavily on Grohe. I havent seen the kid play. I was impressed that he reportedly outplayed Jumiste in camp a senior and returning starter. I was impressed whne called upon vs McNeese St he was ready to play and led the offense. I was somewhat impressed after watching UCF tonite he received Big East Player of the week for his 300yd game against them. I dont think he played that badly vs KU a solid defensive team on the road. Openin drive the kid takes them downfield but after 77 yards or so they cant convert a 4th and 1. Losing 13-7 to KU isnt a bad thing in my back. I though KU outplayed Toledo earlier. Sure KU had its backup QB but Barraman had started at one time and was a senior. I think people will knock USF for the Fla Int game but they were 20 pt chalk something RU wasnt versus Illinois or Ohio U . They did give FIU 13 of the 20 points they scored ...punt return and pick 6. Also Grohe is young hewill be up and down...he was down vs FIU and rebounded to play well @ UCF. I for one knw that USF returns 7 of 11 on defense. I know they have played solid defense this year and definetly last year. Isnt holding WVU to 28 impressive or Lville 14??Still working on this game but RU is one dimensonal..pure rushing attack. Its tough to be like that and score on the road and tougher to be road chalk. I said that with SoMiss tonite and say what you want but I still feel like UCF outplayed them. Look at the favt UCF twice walked awy with no points after driving 75-85 yards! Fumble at the 1 and missed 26 yarder! Then take into account all of SoMiss points came after momentum changing plays.I think RU struggles to score here. I also said that the NE and Denver line was bad , the Falcon line was inflated and today I told the UCF line was INflated! Iwas righ three times. Its late and I am going to Fla tmrw so to be continued.However I think this probably should be a PKem . Remember RU last year at home was ONLY -2.5 and lost. I dont see RU as being better in 2006 with Teel , some WR;s questions and a untested defense that lost some core players from 2005.


More:

We know the South Fla offense is one dimensional. The great thing about that is they arent the favorite and they dont have to win by a certain amount. I am more concerned about RU offense versus the USF defense.You have to score when playing as ROAD CHALK and RU hasnt shown they can IMO. All you have to is disprove the favorite and the dog becomes the play in my eyes. There are only two choices right? RU has shown what on offense? Especially if the opposing teams pathetic offense isnt giving them points. Trust me Ohio u and Illinois will be bottomfeeders in offensive rankingsIt's clear that Matt Grohe is the USF offense and thats a concern. The kid is a FROSH with alot of weight on his shoulders. The key for me was his performance @ UCF amd @ Kansas. The KU game doesnt show that he took the offense 77 yards on the opening drive but they went for it on 4th down and failed. To me its mighty impressive a Freshman QB can go to a big school like KU who has a good defense and just drive the ball without a running game. Thats a helluva alot more then Mike Teel has done. Remember 4 TDS in Teels longer career and Grohe had 3 in his 1st road game. I continue to think for some reason people miss that rushing yards are great but if you cant throw the ball you cant convert third downs. If you cant convert 3rd downs and sustain drives you wont score TDs but settle for FGS. My approach is not what one team can do BUT what the ROAD fav cant do. I have been saying the past few nites. ATL great rushing numbers but how come just 34 points in 2 games? Michael Vick and the passing game. Last nite great Frosh runner for SoMiss but they cant move the ball consistently thru the air IMO. What happened with the SoMiss offense last nite? Couldnt do anything unless it was off a momentum changing play against UCF offense. Now I dont like the fact USF really doesnt have any RB's..but again they are the underdog. And again 21 points @ UNC or 17 at home vs Ohio or 19 vs Illinois doesnt show me much.The fact some people keep glossing over is North Carolina and Illinois are pathetic BIG CONFERENCE schools. These teams are getting whipped every week and Rutgers didnt play that well versus them. It seems to be missed that @ UNC they were up 21-10 and with NC on the 1yd line the Heels fumbled. That would have made it 21-16,17,or 18 depending on the PAT decision. Then RU doesnt do anything on offense and punt it back. UNC after just missing a score goes down the field and scores a TD to make a 5pt game. The RU punts again and UNC gets the ball to the RU 29 but there is an INT and a 21-16 final. This wasnt some dominanting performance. Look at what Vatech and Clemson did to Carolina...beatings! It was a narrow win versus a bad team. Granted in years past they may have blown that type of game. They are UNTESTED! If you saw the Illini game you KNOW that all Illinois did was shoot itself in the foot starting with a blocked punt for a TD and then bad passes and a pick 6. It was 14-0 and RU didnt do anything on offense. Please dont praise the RU defense either cause these programs suck and there offense's suck. Just look at what Illinois does on the road typically...@ Purdue Lost 37-3 , @ Ohio State lost 40-2 , @Indiana 36-13 the Hoosiers are the team closest to them in the Big Ten, @ Iowa 35-7. They last decent game they played under Zook was @ Cal were they lost 35-20. Illinois is repeatedly embarrassed on the road and they only managed 13 against Indiana. It was iffy they would crack 10 vs Rutgers from the getgo. Big deal instead of 10 they got blanked. How good is RU well last year Indiana was home and won 36-13 as 7 point favs . This year RU is home and they lay -10.5 and win 33-0! That tells me something when a sperad is so close..Take awaythe Ohio game? Thats the only decent defense he played and he failed miserably! Thats my point. The other 3 games are modest? He played UNC , Illinois and Howard and all he could do was 2 TDs and 2 Ints with a 146 ,145 ,133 yards...I know someone will say they didnt have to throw...come'on. He played in relief @ McNeese St and it was his first college game! They were scoreless till he took over in the 2nd and finished with 41points. I would absolutely agree that he didnt play well vs Fla Intl but that isnt such a bad program...they almost won @ Maryland this weekend. Not to mention his 1st careet start as a FROSH. FIU is probably better then the RU opponents outside of UNC. The key is they were 20 point favorites against FIU. Thats the same number for the FIU game @ Maryalnd!. That line opened at 20 and closed at 20 IF it was so obvious that South Fla stunk why didnt they pound that line down? Simple cause going in expecattaions were USF could win by 3TDS. A young QB had a bad day thats why you dont lay 20- poinst with unproven QB's at home or lay it with them on the road especially to back a public fav.I cant believe you are saying USF cant run for beans. No kidding they graduated Andre Hall and both his replacements are gone. One back got hurt in the opener and another suspended. USF doesnt even have a RB! They do but you get my point, they really dont. That game against UCF got him Big East Player of the Week I believe. Another key was USF was favored an won on the road with a young QB! Now @ Kansas the numbers dont look good but thats a very solid defense and tough place to play. Go check KU at home last season. They started sloppy this year but I believe were without the star corner first 2 games. Playing @ KU is much tougher then playing @ UNC. USF got so much respect they were only 3 pt dogs. Rutgers was +4.5 @ UNC. We are all dealing in opinions its just we have to be objective. USF struggled against both because they have a young QB who they heavily rely on. Though Grohe did NOT struggle @UCF he struggled in his 1st college start vs FIU.Again who has Rutgers played? They didnt blowout UNC so they smoked Illinois and Howard at home ....you have to be kidding! They didnt blowout Ohio U they won 24-7 , didnt score in the 2nd Half and had a defensive TD. Ohio U is a pathetic offense like I tried to explain and had the ball TWICE inside the Rutgers 20 and scored 0 points due to a missed FG and INT in the 2nd Half. How does that game look at 24-17?You say they pass when they need to ....INCORRECT. They lead 30-0 vs Illi but how many did they score in the 2nd Half? Answer 3! If this rushing attack is so good how come they couldnt score 1 time in the 2nd H? I see big programs with bug leads at half jusr un over teams. Hpow come RU cant? Illi defense isnt good where they trying that hard down 30-0 or is the RU running game overrated. They led 24-7 @ half vs Ohio U how come they had scoreless 2nd Half? Teel has many opportunities to move the chains but couldnt sustain a drive and what happened with that great running game. It should be able to just run at will. How ocme UNC kept getting chances to comeback why could RU just run out the clock? Okay cause RU coulnt make 1st downs!Its not a personal attack. Its just the same arguement ever RU backer gives. No one has addressed how RU didnt travel well last year , how RU hasnt had a tough opponent. USF played good defense IMO last year holding WV to 28 and Lville to 14. This isnt Pat WHite @ WV and Steve Slayton. Teel cant scramble or run like White....not the same thing and WVU ground game did it versus Georgia...I like USF defense the most here. I dont liek having to trust a freshman QB in his 1st conference game. Problem is I dont see him failing much so far.Again lines are the KEY...USF was only +3 to Kansas who I happen to think is a tough win at home. Also USF beat them @ Rutger slast year and teh Knights were -2.5 pt favs ...why a year later on teh road with a wosre QB ar they -4? I am trying to say this team isnt as good as last years

Random comments:

Recap-

Rutgers

1- In my opinion they have played a ridiculously easily schedule and worse have had weak spreads. Which means they werent laying big wood against bad teams and were catching points to bad teams away. Yes, I do believe USF has played a slightily tougher schedule partially because they have traveled twice.I would say FIU and @UCF are better then Illinois and Ohio U in New Brunswick. Losing by 6 @ Kansas is probably tougher then winning by 5 @ UNC.2- Cant expect Mike Teel to make plays in the passing game. On top of which he loses another WR. So that gives you a one dimensonal offense and the defense can focus on stopping the run. If you lay points on the road IMO you need to be balanced offensively and this team is NOT. 3- How is Rutgers a team that was -2.5 pt favs last year at home now laying 4 on the road to th eteam that defeated them?? 4- As much as I respect how well the defense has played IMO the offenses have simply been overmatched. Also not just by RU but any school they travel to.USF-1- They dont have a running back that generates a running game. However unlike RU there OFFENSE is not one dimensional due to QB MAtt Grohe. You have to respect both facets of his game or he will beat you with one of them.2- Can Grohe continue to improve? Being a redshirt Frosh I believe so. I truly believe if you look at this game objectively the game should be a PK em. Remember that RU was dogged at UNC, that last year these teams were considered even to USF being skightily better. RU hasnt improved all that much( excpt if this defense is for real whuch going back to UNC is a ?) and while USF lost Andre Hall it switched from being dependent on him to dependent on Grohe a huge upgrade of Julmiste. Should be a great game and this is huge for RU they must prove they are for real. They have talent BUT no tests.....