Tuesday Thoughts

First in response to chancedog's last comments yesterday. You know I say what I feel wrong or right. Thanks for bringing up the Damon SB comment though been thinking about that and forgot who I discussed it with. I honestly just felt that NY would run a bit more then Boston had and thought the jump from 19 to 25-30 wasnt a big deal. I just dont believe these age arguements. Hate hearing a guy is 34 , 37 and slowing down ...its BS. You take care of yourself and you will slow the aging process. Bonds is teh perefct example look at what he is doing at 42 and Clemens at 44. Bonds overall numbers arent awesome but take what he has done since August 1st. In 132 atbats 12hrs and 32 Rbis!(think 325BAA)..the key is being healthy and not battling injuries. I digress! With NE thats sort of my point with Gabriel this guy looked good in OAK at times , had a great preseason comes to NE and is lost in the shuffle. After 2.5 games he finally gets the ball. I would hope they continue to look for him liek they did in teh 2nd H. Good points about the no huddle and DEN being tired. I just think we have to see what injuries Cincy has to still deal with. They couldnt stop Parker w/o the LB's and Maroney is a BEAST. Also huge game for Cincy could we see a letdown in emotion and performance for this game. They wont say it but afer watching NE I am sure there is les
s excitement. Finally NE is +6 and Cle was +10....think about that? Line also states Cincy would be favored in NE?

College Football

Central Florida +6 +100 (5x) ML +214 (1.25x)

Show some patience before putting this in could run higher. You can easily get +7 -120 and +225 still waiting.

Again we have what in my opinion is an inflated line. I think I am very sound in understanding what a line should be. This game IMO with an unproven QB making his 1st conference road start and relying on a Frosh star RB is high. I am not saying SoMiss isnt better but it shouldnt be higher then -3 and probaly closer -2.

Why do I say this. First dont get wrapped up into this seasons first 3 games. Both teams played a shit school. USM played Southeastern Louisana while UCF hosted Nova. Cant claim to know much about either program but I would guess Nova is a better program. They both played @ Florida . neither team played well but SoMiss probably was more respectable. two things I take from that common opponent. First and very important is one team opened +23 and the other +20. Thats 3 point difference and basically means if Somiss faced UCF on a neutral field it would be -3 point favs. Linesmakers do not quickly adjust there lines, its a known fact! So they might tweak it up a point or two cause So Miss perfomred better ...so say -5 neutral field which if played at UCF mean So Miss would be just -2....typically a 3 point home field edge. Also last year these teams met in SoMiss as the Golden Eagles were 8.5 pt favs. Now they did blowout UCF but there are two things I see. First was UCF come out of nowhere last year so you can believe that there lines were generally undervaluing them. Except maybe here cause after winning 3 straight there was some talk about UCF going into this game. So if 8.5 was correct or maybe say it should have been -10 worst case what does that mean line wise if they played @ UCF? It means that So Miss would be -3 or -4 @ UCF. Now SoMiss lost its star QB Dustin Almond and now has some issues at RB with 2 guys quitting. So you would have to think So Miss has lost some strength. UCF basically returns there entire team from last year and there were young. So if anything that -3 or -4 becomes -2 or -3 in my eyes. Which is where I have said this line should be. Should be -2 and it is -6 you have to love when the BETTING PUBLIC 'BUYS' into a bad line and road chalk! Didnt the Browns have zero chance in teh NFLon SUnday or how about NCST.

Now lets talk FOOTBALL. UCF played last game a 24-17 lost to USF without its star RB who returns here. What has killed UCF in the early going is its pass defense. Both USF and FLA throw all day against the defense but didnt do that much in the running game. The running game has been the USM offense. So there is a good chance it will be slowed today forcing USM to throw the ball. This hasnt been a strong suit for them. So I like that USM probably cant exploit UCF defensive weakness and conversely UCF defense can probably slow USM offesnive weakness. USM has a good FG kicker which I see as a clear edge.

Again you have inexperienced players leading Southern Miss facing George O'Leary who is emphasizing conference play and has a players who played for the Conference Championship and in the Hawaii Bowl where they lost by 1 point. UCF has underperformed to a degree but we didnt expect much from FLA and despite being home dogs most expected them to beat South Fla but they didnt havethere star RB( was tied @ 10 after 3 Q).

I am sure I have more to say on this game but cant remember right now. Bottomline is I am comfortable with my assessment this is a INFLATED LINE. I wont be suprised to see UCF win tonite and I expect them to SU.


Act II MLB-

Marlins -169 (4x)

Little nervous about backing FLA after they looked so horrible in Philly. While D-Train has not faced Cincy since April when he was so-so he has dominanted them throughout his career. Obviously new faces in Cincy now but the key bats of Aurilia and Dunn I believe were something in the neighborhood of 2-22(think Dunn 0-9). The Reds have dropped 15 of 18 away(2-9 off a win) and start Belisle who has ben in the pen last year. I thought it was interesting Belisle started last April vs Willis in Fla and that line was -220. I also have noticed that Cincy was 0-6 in the 2nd H facing a LHP on the road. Despite just a 5-3 record at home Willis has been solid in the 2nd Half there. Only allowed more then 3 runs 1 time and has 6 straight with 3 or less.

Some supporting trends were FLA(9-1 L10 @ home) 14-3 L17(25-10 L35) at home vs team with a losing record. They are 23-9 L32 at home vs RHP and 18-5 L23 vs Central.

Under 4.5 -101 1st 5 Innings NYM & ATL (2x)

Little dicey backing Perez on the road but he was solid last time out in FLA. He also pitched a 9 inning shutout vs ATL already. I feel that Perez is usually tough for 4 or 5 innings before teams catch up to him or he just walks to many. Now ATL for the most part doesnt hit LHP all that well. Smoltz opposes NY and he has been so good at home since returning to the rotation in 2005. You never know what NY is showing up but I hope Smoltz continues to pitch like he last few. Liked the job he did in Coors last time out.

Cubbies +109 (1.5x) & ARL -1.5 +209 (1x)

I could look stupid fading MILW during a nice win streak but this would be a season high if they go it. What I saw at home was an underavlued club playing two bad road teams STL and SFG who both have tremendous pitching issues.The Brewer bats woke up and put up some nice runs but there pitching I thought failed them They faced two awful pens in STL and SFG. Now they travel to Chi who also stinks but not sure they should be a dog here. After all MILW is 25-50 Away! Thats one win out of every series basically!!Better they are only 5-11 away vs LHP this season. So while Villanueva has impressed he its still a small sample size. While Sean Marshall has looked like shit since his return he is still pitching for a spot in the 2006 rotation. They key is he is LHP and CHI seems to score when he pitches. MILW 16-36 L52 away

Cardinals -164 (3x)

There pen is AWFUL and they have cost me a bunch past week. However this is Cris Carpenter plain nad simple. The man has a 1.46 Home ERA! Woody Williams has been solid over the past 3 but struggled in a few starts last year vs STL his former team. Hopefully Carpeneter continues to dominant at home and teh bullpen si atking out of the equation. The under isnt a bad call here worst case might be 5-3 but thinking 4-2 I just worry how long Williams last cause SD pen hasnt been so good eiother lately. Both SP track records are so-so vs the opponent.

Rockies +110 (5x) & ARL +198(1x) & Over 9.5 -114 (4x)

Big play with a small reason. I dont like Maddux on the road especially in Coors with the ball flying. Thought this ws more of a PK game with Jennings who has pitched well at home this season. LAD 1-9 L9 off a win. Maddux 6-10 in 16 away starts and Jennings 8-6 at hoem with a 3.28 ERA. Maddux ERA is above 5 on the road with a 1.45 WHIP. The bats have been alive in Colorado for weeks now.

Now the AL

Under 3 runs KC team -131 (2x) & MIN -1.5 RL -151 (2x)

Basically its Johan at home versus a team tha I feel quit or is distracted with Bell's condition. In 4 of the past 5 at home vs KC he has allowed 0 or 1 runs. Perez has been hit hard in hi sonly 2 career starts vs Minny.

Over 5 -103 Tigers & Jays 1st 5 Innings(2x)

Bonderman has some issues at home . He is either real good orr eal bad very little inbewteen. Tor won 7 of 10 playing well of late. The trot out McGown who has failed as SP before aand is a question mark.

Tribe -148(2x)

Sabathia has been strong vs Chitown who is eliminated from the playoff hunt. They trut out Vazquez who has lost 8 straight starts.

NYY -214 (2x)

Not sure there is value here but no matter what lineup we have , my YANKS are loaded. Penn solid last time out but it was TB! He has struggled on teh road in his short MLB career like al young SP's do. Lidle generally has been solid at home outside of his last outing. Definetly a show me start for him with Moose and RJ hurt and Wright pitching well.

Parlay - Red Sox -194 & A's -138 (1.5x)

Team totals

Over 4 +127 Toronto (1x)

Over 4 -145 Colorado (1x)

Under 25.5 pts SoMiss +137(1x)

Thats it I think! GL