Tonite Green Bay travels to Philadelphia

Line- Philly -12 / 49.5 ov -110

It's Monday and hopefully ALL had a solid weekend. Some say only degenerates bet these games but I think every game has a winner and possibly some value or angle to find. Can we find it??

We have the Packers coming off a SU win in DET as 6.5 pt underdogs. I said as soon as saw that line what the fuck were they thinking? Somehow some way with GB playing home floppers people 'bought' into DET as this big fav. DET could not get to Favre and was not sacked as he primarily played out of the shotgun. Remember Mike McCarthy is labeled as a QB guru and GB has some weapons now on offense. You would assume the GB OL is playing better and hopefully with he return of Spitz gets another boost. Even without Kearse the Eagles have a soild pass rush( Trent Cole's play) and will find ways to get to the QB. Which likely means rushed decisions and off balance throws IF this happens repeatedly . The GB defense is the counter opposite of say a Browns defense. GB seems to play sound defense but allow to many BIG plays in both the passing and running game. Where as a Cleveland Browns defense seems to bend BUT NEVER break type style.

The Eagles return from the West Coast where they beat up on SF. One think I would like to put out there is what do people think would have happened if Frank Gore didnt fumble at the 1 yard line and Patterson didnt rumble 98 yards for a TD for a 14 pt swing ...31-3 instead of 24-10?? The Eagle defense didnt appear to be able to stop SF in the 2nd Half as the Niners had the ball for 21 minutes in the 2nd Half. The Eagles had lost Dawkins to a concussion and played without Sheppard and Hood at corner which means your talking 4th DB on the depth chart starting. So while Dawkins appears to have shaken the concussion from last week its still unclear to me what the status of Sheppard and Hood are tonite. Remember the NYG couldnt do anything on offense until Hood came into the game when Sheppard exited. He hasnt played well this season.This line seems really HIGH IMO. Last year with McNabb and Sheppard OUT Philly only was -4 at home. True Owens was already suspended and they have upgraded the WR corps but is McNabb that valuable? YES and NO I think. Yes, he is the football sense but a line adjustment of nearly a TD or more? Insane IMO. After all GB didnt have Ahman Green or Greg Jennings and Koren Robinson either.

My problem is its hard to pin a value on GB since there lines appear really off this season. Truth is a true line @ DET should have been -4 which would put the lines as slightily stronger then GB. Truthfully I think they are equal( GB & DET) in value and strength. So would the Lions be 10 ,11 and 12 at Phillly today?? I would have to think it woul dbe in the 8.5 to 10 pt range. I think its interesting that while Favre had a few picks and GB fumbled 3 times he was sacked only once. So there may be hope for him getting sufficient protection tonite . They had a real legit chance @ winning in Philly last year. Both teams are fairly solid against the run although both RB's in last meeting enjoyed success against the other. Which is something these teams might look it despite both gaudy pass stats.It appears Stallworth is going to play and so will Ahman Green both battling hamstring isssues.


One thing flying under the radar IMO is how the books have adjusted this line well total. The highest Philly total was 42 and GB previously 40. I am always well aware when books adjust cause I tend to feel they overadjust. True they have precedent from a few years back but a gamebreaker like TO is not avalable tonite. While the GB offense has scored more the past 2 weeks it also faced two average defenses and benefited from good field position , defensive scores and big play TDS. Will those be options beavailable tonite? After all its been said time and time again how Favre is happy to make the short underneath pass instead of forcing a deep pass nowadays. Which versus a sound defense that if healthy is a real solid defense means longer drives and fewer possessions. Philly also has played defense well but has misleading stats to some degree.

What has happened to the Philadelhia offense in the second half the past 2 weeks?? I would concentrate on this and look to play GB 2nd half and possibly the under 2nd Half. Basically Lito Sheppard is a huge key here tonite as he solidifes the secondary IMO. GB if I recall correctly is 4-0 ATS when getting a TD or better. Tough game to pick since we all think Philly could win by2 TDs or better if GB's protection breaks down.However I do see value in grabbing the Under at 50 or 49.5.

So right now :
Under 50-110 (4x)
Packers +12-105 (3x)

Looking at GB and what to do with the 1st half if anything. good chance I play Und 18.5 GB team.Will update as information becomes available. GL

More...........................

I think the Westbrook LOSS is much more significant especially coupled with the corners being out. Westbrook adds such a dimension to the offense that cannot be replaced. Green yards can be made up and he is no longer a factor in the passing game where as Noah Herron could be IMO. The GB offense has been Favre and his new found short pass success. GB can now focus more on the Philly passing game IMO