Thursday Thoughts

Houston @ Pitt

Well the Astros are trying to make one of the most amazing comebacks ever. However they have to be running on fumes at this point. This weeked was highlighted by a Monday makeup game instead of an off day. Remember the played a huge 4 game set vs STL and got the sweep with the last game being a Sunday Nite and then had to fly to Philly....then to Pitt.

Oswalt's has incredible day splits 5-1 1.94ERA and is facing a team who hits just .254 in the day and avgs 4.1 runs. Houston doesnt hit that much in day games(but they pitch well3.7 runs) and vs LHP apprx 4.4 runs per. Gorzelanny is a Solid young SP I am somewhat concerned that he isnt 100% still since returning.

I think you have a couple teams with average offensive day splits. They have to be exhausted after the 15 inning affair last nite and then ahving to play @ 12:30...we know Houston is exhausted but postseason is a great motivator. I expect a pitchers duel and while The Astros are thin in the pen you can expect 7 or 8 here from Roy. It looks great to fade the Astros here but I cant...Roy Oswalt is usually at his best come August and September....this year hasnt been any different.

I think after 10 scoreless innings sometimes the offensive struggles carry over to teh next day.

Plays-
Under 4 -117 First 5 innings (2x) Under 8 -128 (1.5x) Pirates +1.5 RL +108 (1x)

Just added-

Under 8.5 -117 DET & TOR (3x)

Really based on the pitching matchups. Both guys throwing extremely well and a reasonable number here with 8.5. Tor hits well vsLHP but that seems to have faded as teh season wore on. First Foster behind the dish scared me but I noticed he had only two 8.5 totals all season and they both went under. Which is significant cause all his starts had 9 or higher totals thats why his runs per game is higher. He wasnt getting quality SP matchups to call...at least thats my theory. Still a game DET needs so as well...


Rockies +120 (2x)

Kim has actually faced LA five times this sasona nd four last year. In all but one start at the ned of last season did Kim fail to go at least 6 innings and allow 3 runs or less.....He does pitch better at home as well. Despite LA needing this win I still see a clear edge in SP despite Pennys success at Coors( 10-2 lifetime 2.51 vs Colorado).Penny struggled in the 2nd H outside a fewexcellent starts. He went from 10-2 2.91 Era to 6-7 with a 5.99 ERA and his BAA is 311 ! Fading Penny and might look at the over....

GL

Act II

BYU +7 -110 (2x) & Under 25.5 +107 BYU Team Total (1x)

Have to be somewhat concerned with John Beck's ankles but I think he could have played last week and it was precautionary day off. Also concernedwith Hobsb and Merrill apparently playing. Still I just dont get impressed by the TCU offense and to me Texas Tech gimmick offense isnt a defensive test. Beck threw for over 500 yards vs TCU last year . Now TCU gets an edge in preparation as well. Bottom line is there are resons to adjust this line I just felt -4 was where it should been...

Act III- MLB

Marlins -140(3x)

Not sure of where Nolacso is healthwise which is a minor concern. However as I stated in game 1 the Reds have struggled away and winning consecutive games. Lohse has lost 8 of 10 starts despite some good efforts. He is 0-5 away and with Cincy lineup being thin it will be even harder to get run support. Flat out just thought this line was to LOW.

Phillies -144 (4x) & Under 4.5 +108 (1x) First 5 Inn

Just not going to fade Leiber at this point of the season pitching a baig game. I know what he can do in AUG & SEPT as a NY fan. O'Connor seemsto lose gas in the 5thinning these days.

Mets -120 (now 4x from 3x)

Think NY has a huge edge in SP with this matchup and they need to avoid the sweep.

DBacks +128 (1.5x) & ARL +250(.5x)

Riding Batista who has been pitching well and fading SD on the road as well as Peavy.

Devil Rays +155 (2.5x) & ARL +229 (1.5x) & Over 4.5 -107 TB team (2x)

You have to be NUTS to back TB on the road with only 3 2nd H wins. Its the end of the year I have done well in building a bankroll with baseball so the value is worth the gamble. I see Howell pitching well since his return outside of a start at Tor who kills LHP while Byrd as struggled last 5 weeks. The key is Cle dropping 22 of 32 vs LHP and Howell is LH!

Under 4 +106 First 5 Innings Oakland (2x)

Zito vs Lackey with players rested. barry's usually good in LA and Lackey loves pitching vs Oakland though I am midly concerned he just faced them.


Looking @ Milw still, have a play on the NYY game but cant find it at the moment from earlier , and thing Auburn and played SC und 11.5pts

ACT III-

Under 11 NYY -116 (2x) & NYY under 6 -110 team (1x)

Noticed that NY was 4-16 over with 11 totals and 0-10 over at home with 11 totals. Cabrera was better on the road in the 1st H and switched form being better at home in the 2nd H. The big guy has some decent starts vs NY in his career mainly IMO cause he is overpowering. Rollin the dice...

Brewers +137 (1x)

Only cause Davis has won 5 of 6 starts in STL as a Brewer.

Indians +1.5 RL -130 (1.5x) forget this one

Was interested in KC before DET lost this afternoon.

Auburn -13 -110 (1.5x) & Under 11.5 -110 SC team total

The way the BYU game has started it makes it hard for me to take this game. I did say I would take Auburn if this was knocked down to -13 on Thusday but I always like the BYU play more just hated TCU getting its backs back. Basically I dont see how or why SC breaks 10 points.

GL