Thursday Thoughts

1PMEST Detriot @ NYY -225/9.5

The first question we should ask ourself is what effect if any did Verlander 'beginning to loosen up' have on him physically on him . As well as the mental aspect of getting geared up to start. Even a vet like Mussina is so routine based it makes you wonder.

The numbers:
Mussina 2006

HOME 9-2 3.19 16 98.2 88 37 35 12 17 95 .232 1.06 WHIP
DAY 6-4 3.28 11 68.2 69 32 23 5 14 64 .256 1.21 WHIP

5/31 @ DET 9 inn 6 H 1r 0ER 1bb 5k.

Lineup vs Moose
Granderson and Casey each 1/3 (Casey Hr'ed)
Guillen 5/29 1bb 11K's (0 XBH's)
Inge 3/12
Monroe 2/8
Ordonez 10/35 1Hr(3XBH's)
Polanco 1/7
Pudge 16/63 1bb 18 K's(5XBH's)
Stairs (DH) 5/27 (2XBH's)

One note on Mussina is his day splits are always better then his nite and he generally pitches much better @ Yankee Stadium then on the road.

Last year 3.52 Home ERA & 1.15 WHIP compared 5.34 Away ERA & 1.60 WHIP
2004 3.94 Home ERA & 1.28 WHIP compared to 5.25 Away ERA & 1.37 WHIP

Day 2004 3.28 ERA & 1.18 WHIP to 5.11 ERA 1.38 WHIP
Day 2005 2.76 ERA & 1.27 WHIP to 4.97 ERA 1.40 WHIP

Verlander

Day splits 6-2 2.78 9st 55Inn 52 H 18 R 17 ER 5Hr 13 BB 35 K 1.18 WHIP

Away splits 9-6 3.91 16st 99 Inn 104 H 45R 43Er 12 Hr 35 BB 74 K 1.40 WHIP

The Yankee lineup clearly hits better in Day games then DET's.


Plays :
Under 9.5 +100 (6x)
Under 5.5 First 5 Innings -117 (2x)
NYY -1.5 -114 (2x)

The reason I went with NY RL was very high juice obviously ...However DET has only 2 wins vs NY this year both 9th inning comebacks. Monroe's 3run H off Proctor and run in the bottom of the 9th off Farnsowth I believe in Verlander's start. Expecting a 5-3 game here.

The Under is aided by Laz Diaz behind the dish and his 22-12 Under record (8-5 Under AL). There was a 3 game span with some ailing SP and a Coors game, exclude those and he avgs 7.5 runs per. There appears to be some wind blowing in from RF at about 15 MPH.

More to follow...

The other NY game:

Much has been made of the Mets struggle against LHP recently. I think you have to disect the numbers and realize they are 5-6 at home vs LHP since 8/1 but only 1-9 away. Think they are 8-8 at Home since July vs LHP. It also appeared NY coasted after clinching and many of those games that followed soon after had LHP.

Kuo was great his first time out vs them but can he do it a second time? He pitched well in SEPT when joining the rotation. However Glavine had a2.98 ERA @ Shea past 3 seasons and he exceeded that with a 2.88 ERA this season. Clearly Glavine signed with the Mets for this day and has a tremendous edge in postseason experience.

As I went over the past 2 months for these teams I found NY plays better at home vs LHP but still was very inconsistent with the offense. They have 3 guys who hit LHP very well in LoDuca .336 , Reyes .330 and Suprisingly LHB Endy Chavez .333 who Randolph would start if he had a clue since Floyd is below 200. Wright faded in the 2nd Half against lefties but is still @ .285. Everyone else is below .247, the key is Beltran though . He is @ .247 but generally hits LHP well being a Switch Hitter. For some reason it hasnt happen this year and his .225 home average doesnt help...

In Sept @ Home they lost 5-0 to Chuck James , 5-0 to Kuo , 9-1 Stultz , won 3-2 vs Olsen but scored late off the pen , lost 6-3 to Willis and won 12-6 vs Michael O'Connor when they got 6 in the bottom of the 5th off him.

In August @ Home they beat Moyer 8-3 , Lost 4-3 to Wolf , won 10-8 vs Mark Mulder who shouldnt have been pitching , won 7-4 vs Jeff Francis (2 earned in 5 inn), lost 5-3 to Wolf.

Generally I still some offensive questions but after reviewing LAD. Its the same story despite some great indivual avgs.

Martin .366 vs LHP but .244 away

Kent .347 vs LHP but .258 away

Nomar .341 vs LHP but .283 away

Furcal .324 vs LHP but .269 away

Lugo .263 vsLHP BUT .287 away

Saenz .397 vs LHP but .326 away

Either .351 vs LHP but .281 away

Lofton .214 vs LHP but .322 away

Drew .244 vs LHP and .269 away

So LA hits Lefties but doesnt seem to be the case on the road. I think the fact Glavine pitched twice vs LAD this year once in Shea and once in LA with drastic differences in outcomes backs up the numbers. ^ runs in LA and none @ Shea....

In Sept LAD scored 0, 2 , 0 , 8 , 3 , 5 , 4. Now all these were AWAY except the 3 and 5. The 8 run game was against Sean Marshall @ Wrigley and Marshall just was lost upon returning from the DL. So I take that game very lightily. Its interesting the 0,2, 0 span was a 3 day stretch when they faced Doug Davis , Cris Capuano and Tom Glavine all 3 very similiar soft tossing LHP and managed 2 runs / 14 hits in 27 /3 innings. Also the 4 run game they won in the 9th off a LH closer Mike Staton but managaed just 2 runs in 7 innings off Lowry. Sort of a soft tosser as well..crafty is the word...

In August they won 3-0 and 7-3 on the road. However the 7 run game featured a 6run 7th inning as the Marlin pen imploded(not suprising is it)! They were 4-1 @ home in Aug losing 3-1 , winning 3-2 , 4-2 and 6-5 twice. The only starter they hit was Michalak on Cincy. The other 6 run game was vs Milton when they got just 2 earned of four runs off him in 5 innings.

So there seems to be a long trail for lineups struggling to score vs LHP but finding ways to win. This really could be a 1run game but after yesterday you have to wonder about the LAD pen. Kuo goes 6 and then what? Who do they turn to?

LAD 8-17 Last 25 away vs LHP. They are 13-28 L41 against teams with winning records. While NYM is 12-3 past 15 against teams with a winning record.

Ted Barrett behind the dish is 17-4 L21 for the home team and last 10 all by the home team. The home team in the past 18 MET games Barrett has called is 17-1. The UNDER is 14-3 Last 17 for Barrett as well.

Curious that Kuo was something around +155 versus Maine recently. He was exceptional but why so much chaper here and why is it going down still??

Plays-

Under 5 -117 First 5 Innings(3x)

NYM -141 (8x)

Hey if I am missing something here so be it.....

Under 9 -103 (4x)

Under 4 +100 LAD (2x)

Parlay NYM -141 & FSU -9.5 -105 (3x)

Parlay NYM -141 , FSU -9.5 -105 , Utah Utes ML -135 (1x)

We have heard alot about LaRussa's decision to start Weaver on the road cause it 'appears' Weaver pitches better on the road since signing in StL. However in 8 awat starts he has completed 6 inning just 3 times with the other being 5 + innings. So that puts the questionable pen into teh mix for sure. Weaver did not pitch well in the playoffs as a Yankee or Dodger. His most recent playoff start was @ StL going 5 2/3 Inn allowing 8 hits and 6 runs. Back in 2004 he made 3 starts Petco in a season when he pitched well vs SD. He was shelled twice going 9 Inn allowing 16 hits and 13 runs. The strong start was July 30th 2004 going 8 innings allowing 1 run.

The biggest problem Weaver has is his struggles vs LHB and issues allowing the long ball. This year Lefties hit .340 against him with 22Hrs. Last year it was .297 with 22 hrs and in 2004 .291 with 13 hrs. Clearly its not a trend. I already heard that SD did the smart thing and started Bard over Piazza(..337 6hrs against RH's to Piazza's 257). Weaver did face SD when he was Angel but 2 keys things maybe 3 Piazza was the DH and Greene and Bellhon were up the middle..not today though. Today we have 7 lefties and agood job by Bochy seeing what I see. Only Cameron who is decent vs RHB and Weaver starts. So SD weakest bat against RHB is Blum a lefty who hits .267.

Now Wells its tough to figure what to expect but he looked fine last time out and is a big game , postseason SP when healthy. He has faced STL as recently as 2004 and 2005 winning both going 15 inninsg allowing 8 hits 2runs and 0BB's.

He has faced everyone in the lineup at least once. Looking at what Belliard does vs LHP it seems LaRussa is going with defense...157 BAA in STL. Pujols is 3/9 zero Hrs , Rolen 4/9 2hrs but he has struggled vs LHP this year (.259) , Encarnacion 7/24 but .316 7Hrs against LH this year , Edmonds 11/35 but .156 against LH this year. So a mixed bag IMO.

Now some keys are SD 14-3 last 17 at home and 12-2 after a LOSS. STL is 1-9 last 10 as dog of 125 to 150 and 22-45 as a dog of 110 to 150. 23-33 vs LHP . 4-10 Last 14 away playoff games. Cards are 8-24 L32 road games. 3-14 L17 aay vs LHP. 6-12 Away vs winning teams .

The one big factor is 39-19 during the day also 15-3 UNDER on Thursday. Also 41-17 vs the West.

Something that most people dont catch is Weaver on extended rest not pitching since 9/29. This season 2-9 in 12 starts with more then 5 days of rest going 60 2/3 innings allowing 84 HITS , 56 RUNS / 51 EARNED & 17 HRS!!!!!!! OUCH!

I really didnt weigh Day / Nite splits here much cause it seemed inclusive. Last Card road win vs a Lefty July 9th in Houston.

Plays:

Padres -140 (8x)

Padres 1st 5 Inning-137 (2x)

Padres -1.5 RL +155 (.5x) and Padres -2.5 +235 (.5x) value plays

Over 4.5 SD runs -111 (5x)

Under 4 STL runs -103 (2x)

NCAAF

So far on the wrong side of two close games this week. Really shocked at how poorly the Marshall defense looked last nite. I knew that when the missed the XP it would come back to haunt me....not that Marshall deserved to win just changes the complex of the game. Not to mention 4th and 4 really backed a Marshall stop would have been nice...you never know if Bradshaw cane break free at the end of the game get a cheap TD....

Tonite both teams rested since 9/23. I cant buy much into the upset of BC for the Wolfpack though. Boston College had already played 3 tough games and hadnt been impressive @ Central Michigan. Then tough home OT games vs Clemson and BYU probably left them on empty. The Wolfpack did nothing but hang around in that game. Boston College needed 1 yard to end the game and failed twice to get it. Look at how NCST scored there 17 points....48 yd run by Brown followed by 22 yard run for Baker. I dont see that happening vs FSU defense. They got the ball at midfield on there 1st TD and agains 26yd run by Brown. The last TD was a 34 yd pass...again not going to happen IMO vs FSU unless the defender falls or something. Not to mention huge momentum with BC not being able to ever put that game away...

You can look @ Miami getting 10 points at home and not having 200yards of offense..something like 16 carries for 30yards for there backs. Rice's RB had a nice statsheet except he had 4 carries for 2 yards in the 1st half and his yard didnt come until the score was 31-7 and most came on the last drive that started with 4 minutes to go. James Davis a STUD back had 19carries for 87 yards a 4 yd average. Now I realize Brown had a big game versus them last year with 179 yards but alot came on 2 runs...nearly 115 yards..You would think this time around they are prepared for him and not taking them lightily. So its my presumption that FSU can take the run away and focus on the young QB Evans...which is going to be trouble cause they will blitz him and confuse him. This is definetly the toughest defense he has seen.Evans appears to have developed something with John Dunlap and if I noticed it I am sure so did FSU.

Looking at this years lines I see NCST as decent size home favs against Akron but lose..., 3pt dogs @ So Miss and get smoked.... Basically we are saying that these teams are all fairly equal in terms of strength...while FSU won @ Miami cathcing 4 and lost by 7 at home to Clemson laying . That basically says that FSU is equal to teams like Clemson and Miami. See the tremndous difference in level of play????FSU hasnt managed to be consistent on offense and the OL is ailing. However even with recent series history in mind I dont see this Wolfpack defense being as strong as years past...400++ plus yards allowed to So Miss and Akron!!If FSU doesnt give great field position away I dont see how NCST sustains loing drives......17@ home vs Akron , 23 @ home App St , 17 @ SoMiss but a garbage TD , 17 @ home vs BC on a last second TD.

Team Total Under 14.5 -115 NCST (6x)

going to lay it with FSU as well just watching the LINE(see -9.5 -106). I think this line was set to attract Wolfpack money...10.5 open is over a key number (10). Revenge is definetly a word I would use here.Looking at the 9 PM start.....going back forth. Unimpressed with TCU offense and Ballard who knows how well he feels. Not that Utah has done anything versus Boise St...@ UCLA is tough though IMO.

Adds

Florida State -9.5 -105 (6x)

Teaser (2x)FSU -9.5(+0.5) , Under 41.5 (51.5)Utah , Over 39 (29)FSU.

Utah ML -125 ML (3x) & ML -119 (3x)

Under 20.5 TCU -128 (2x)

Under 41.5 +101 (4x) & Under 43 -102 (1x)

2nd Half-FSU ML -236(2x)Under 7.5 -116 NCST team (2x)

Just cant be impressed by TCU. They struggled to win @ Baylor and really the Bears gave them that game late if I recall correctly. They beat Texas Tech at home cause the Red Raiders couldnt score...should we be suprised that GIMMICK Tech offense failed AGAIN versus a good defense on the road. AN explosive passing attack comes to town and blows them out...46 points in 3 real games...Utes had 38 @ SDST...Now Utah really shit the bed last week. However there is an edge in having to stay home. Could we just chalk it up as a bad day? Utah hadnt really been tested till Boise and failed miserable...at least they have shown something offensively in there other games. TCU just seemed to get some breaks last year and this is a revenge matchup for Utah. Ballard ailing and the TCU running game still trying to get healthy.

Good Luck today.