The day and second season starts with Oakland visiting Minnesota.

Minny -191 / 7 over -109.

Zito draws the start for Oakland here. One thing I noticed right off the bat is how well both of these teams have hit LHP the past 2 months. The Twins have 2 (big) LH bats in Morneau and Mauer who bat LH but smoke LHP and Zito allowed 6hrs and a 260 clip vs them. Zito is 10-3 away (12-5 team) with a 2.97 ERA but 1.36 WHIP . His day splits were 5-3 (7-4) 4.33 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. This year he didnt pitch in Minny and his only dome start was @ TB and wasnt very sharp there. However last year he was sharp in Minny and tatooed in TB (again). He slipped this yr in the 2nd Half and in 2005 also had a high Day ERA @ 4.50.

Pre-All Star 3.29 8-6 19 126.0 105 49 46 12 57 92 .233
Post-All Star 4.55 8-4 15 95.0 106 50 48 15 42 59 .286

Now Zito has pitched well in Minnesota but I think is a very different lineup now with the maturation of the M&M boys as well as Cuddyer. They added vets Nevin and White who do hit Zito well. Plus some youngsters who hit LHP well. What I am getting at here is I expect Minny to hit Zito despite his tremendous road splits and career numbers in Minny. I know in Santana's starts at home 17-0 of them his Twins have scored 4 runs or more in 15 of them somehow in 2 starts against KC they managed 3 runs. Twins went 8-1 vs LHP in Sept and scored 4 runs or more in 7. Do I need to post Santana 's ridiculous home numbers and great day splits? I dont think so... Johan 17-0 at home and 11-2 in the day.. 30-3 L3 years after the Break with a 1.90 ERA. Only guys that hit Santana are Hurt 6-16 and Bradley 2-2. The rest is something like 12 of 90 against him.

What I am looking at waiting till Tuesday for line movement is Twins ML , Over 4 Twins team total , and over 7 to a lesser degree.

The late afternoon game pits STL @ SD..

Carpenter faces Peavy .Looking at Peavy's splits you have to be concerned with his day splits. However he had only 2 day starts at home in Aug/Sept(both early august). They werent excellent but tell a different story from his day numbers. In those 2 games he went 12 1/3 inn allowed 7 hits 4runs . In 6 2nd H home starts he was impressive. Going 43 1/3 innings 24 hits 7 runs 12 bb 45 K's. He doesnt have great numbers vs STL but I see two things from him. First is he struggled most of the 1st half when he faced STL this yr. He pitched poorly in the playoffs last year vs STL cause of the rib issue. He pitched great in his earlier start in 2005 vs STL. So the key is obviously containing Pujols since STL has struggled away and SD has won 14 of the past 16 at home. Carpenter has struggled away but generally pitched well vs SD and in the day. Cris 5-1 2.40 ERA but Cards just 7-4 in his starts. On the road his ERA is 4.70 and STL is 8-7 in those 15 starts. Last 2 starts Cris has been kept in to long cause the pen is in shambles and his stats suffered.I really like SD here and I am thinking about seeing what the total does but like the over and SD over 3.5 team runs.


The nite game is Det @ NYY

First thing I see is a Tiger squad which LOST 5 straight and the division title to close the season. They went 2-5 vs NYY this season.Nate Robertson tends to pitch well vs the Yanks and has already lost 2-0 to Wang at the Stadium. In 8 of his last 10 starts he has thrown well allowing 3 runs or less the other two were beatings. Away thi syr 6-5 (team 6-9) 3.47 ERA with 10 of 15 going Under. Now at nite 9-8 (team 10-10) 3.42 ERA with 12 of 19 went under. In 6 career starts vs NY he is 1-5 but has 5 very strong outings vs them( the 6 run start all scored late). Wang has pitched well in 3 of 4 vs DET except the 'sweep' game in DET. He is 11-3 (13-4 team) at the Stadium with a 3.03ERA & 1.17 WHIP. His nite splits are stronger then his day numbers. He was 10-2 3.13 in the 2nd Half.Go back over the numbers NYY has struggled against LHP . We get a boost with Sheff returning But Giambi and Abreu have struggled vs LHP and ARod tends to be neutral. We have Cano , Matsui and Damon as well vs the LH side. Playing the UNDER fairly heavy and NYY ML.

Lets talk more tuesday when we get some movements. So like all the home teams , the NYY under and looking at SD under and Oak over.


Plays-

Minnesota -191 (5x)
Just feel that Minny has a huge edge facing a LHP at home where they hit .315 against lefties. True its Barry Zito but he struggled throughout the second half and gets a tough early start time. Minny won 5 of 6 in the Dome vs Oak this year and scored often in there wins.

Over 4 -103 Twins team (4x)

Over 7 -103 Twins / A's (1.5x)

Padres -106 (6.5x)

Under 7 +121 (3x)

U 3.5 Cards +112 (1x)Pads -1.5 RL +211(.5x)


NYY -223 (3x)

Under 9.5 +102 (6x)

Under DET 4runs -119 (possibly)

GL