October 4th Wed Thoughts-

Marshall -3 -119(7x)


This is a real basic play for me. Again I feel this line is also off but soft. I mean how is a UCF team who was a home dog to so-so teams like SoMiss and USF only catching 3 points on the road....basically the home field advantage adjustment @ Marshall. A team that has looked fairly decent @ Tenny and @ Kansas State past 2 weeks. Not to mention Marshall is never an easy place to play.

Some may point out UCF defeated Marshall last year at home....and I will say as 3pt home dogs...It simply appears that UCF is the classic team to 'overacheive' one season and when expectations get raised or there are expectations everything bounces against them. The combination of extra preparation time and experience from playing @ WV , @ Kansas State , @ Tenny...thought we should have seen -6 here...thinking 24-14 ish..


Baseball
Today-Over 9 -104 Twins/ A's (5x)
Over 5 -110 First 5 Innings (2x)
Over 4.5 Twins -118 team (2x)

Yesterday I felt Minnesota would hit Zito who had tremendous road splits cause the Twins hit LHP very well. In the back of my head I had noticed that the only LH to give them trouble of late was Mark Redman who was much like Zito. Maybe something I should have realized or paid attention to.

Anyway today the Twins will adjust there lineup some and get more lefty bats in there to face Loaiza. In SEPT Esteban really struggled on the road and that can be said fo his entire 2006 'away' season. He made 14 starts but lasted only 77 innings (about 5.5 per). He had a 6.01 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. My only concern is how well he pitched in AUG and in his 3 SEPT home starts that didnt seem to carry over to the road.

Kerwin Danley seems to make pitchers work as they average over 290 pitches in his starts. He has been 8-2 over last 10.

Boof Boonser is tough to figure. He finally seems adjusted to ML competition but can he relax in his 1st career playoff start?? It seems they have a short leash with him and he has managed only 7 innings twice recently..good chance these guys arent around to start the 6th inning. He has basically been a 5 +inning guy allowing 3 runs. However in 2 of his past 3 home starts he out did those avgs. We are all concerened about the strength of the pens ....Would love to take a shot at the Twins -1.5 RL but have too find out why this line moved so hard.

looking at NYM at 4 due to Lowe's struggles vs LHB and the Mets abundance of them.

GL