Saturday MLB Thoughts-

1PM EST SD @ STL

We have Chris Young vs Jeff Suppan today. First thing I would say is dont fall in love with Youngs road streak...whats he 9-0 or something in 26 away starts...there is alot of gray area. First he made 15 away starts and his teamw as 11-4. Second he was 6-0 in those 15 starts which tells me two things 1) he doesnt get good run support and 2) he is involved in alot of close games. Also note SD has lost 3 of his last 5 away and despite still solid pitching only one of the wins by more then by 1 run.

Things to know:

SD is 7-20 after an off day
SD is 6-20 L26 in STL(took 2 of 3 last week when STL was reeling)
STL 40-19 in the Day
StL 13-3 l16 divsional playoffs and SD dropped 8 straight postseason games
StL 42-17 vs the West
Stl 110-49 vs RHP @ home
StL 7-2 after a shutout
SD 2-5 after being shutout (6-1 UNDER)

We know Suppan turned it around in the second half going 6-2 with a 2.39 ERA. He was especially sharp in the 2nd H at home making 6 starts of 7 + innings and allowing less then 3 runs(actually 5 starts were 2 runs or less). He had bad starts at home Vs SD last Monday and Pitt in August.

All season @ Busch he was 7-2 (11-6) 3.18 ERA in 17 starts. He was 5-1(9-4) in the day 3.39 Day ERA. The concern with Suppan would be his 2 bad starts vs SD this season. I think you MIGHT be able to tae those lightily cause he has better day numbers and those were nite starts. The key is to keep Dave Roberts off the basepaths IMO. Blum has good career numbers vs Suppan but is only 248 in the day this year. Piazza has thehighest day avg but despite good numbers vs Suppan there are from a diffferent time IMO. the Pads have been feast or famine lately scoring 3 runs or less 7 times( 2runs or less 6 times ) in the past 11 games the 4 other occassions they scored 6 +.

Youngs Road numbers are filthy...
-93 inning only 58 hits allowed a .176 BAA.(away)
-Holding LHb to a .175 clip is ridiculous for a RHP only problem is STL big bats are Pujols , Rolen and Encarnacion..all RH's....the LH Duncan and Edmonds really are secondary in the lineup.
- Oh his Day splits 44 + innings only 24 hits allowed for a .157 BAA(2.22 ERA)

He was excellent last week versus STL as well 7 Innings 1 run. He has been FILTHY last few starts allowing JUST 5 hits and 1 run past 21 1/3 innings! STL scored more then 5 runs just Once past 10 games. Both pens doing there jobs this series.

Plays-

Under 8.5 -112 (6x)
Cards -105 (3x)

A's -145 /cards -105 parlay (2x) pending

Reason I went with STL was simply I feel its a cheap line. Last week STL had Reyes opposing Young and STL was -107. Clearly Suppan is worth more then Reyes and despite pitching well Young did not win as SD fell 4-2. think it should have been -120...

I am driving myself crazy over this Yankee game. I truly like the Yanks in this spot but brain keeps saying bad price , bad price. As Yanks 26 said in another thread there is almost always value in fading the Yanks.

NY is 10-2 in Wright L12 road starts. It was about 8 of 12 that Wright allowed less then 3 runs in the road.

Yanks are 8-2 away last 10 awayNYY is 34-24 DAY but have lost past 6 day games..Tigers are 4-12 past 16 day and 0-5 Bonderman L5 day


Wright was 6 -2 away 3.99 ERA and NY 10-3 when he started.In the day he was 6-2 (7-4) with a 4.45 ERA.BAsically Wright is a 6 inning SP that usually allows 2 or 3 runs in that span. On occassion he is tougher then that and on occassion he has nothing and gets hit hard...for the most part expect 6 innings and the oppposition to score 2or 3 times IMO.

Bonderman in his career hasnt pitched well at home , well in the day 12-21 career , well in the 2nd Half of seasons (almost 5 ERA this year) and struggled vsLHP...NYY will have 6. He was 6-4 4.57 at home this season witha 1.40 WHIP. Det went 8-9 in those starts and the uNDER was 10-6 primarily cause the BULLPEN pitched EXCELLENT when he left early. During the day he was brutal going 1-6 (3-8) 5.70 ERA , 1.51 WHIP and .299BAA. He allowed 81 hits and 47 runs (42er) in 66 1/3 innings.Past 2 season LHB have hit .286 against Bonderman . He also failed to make it to the 5th inning 3 times in his final 5 home starts.

My opnion is Jaret Wright is a good matchup vs DET free swinging lineup that is heavily RH. Just like Wang he throws a hard , heavy sinker and DET is a team that relies on the HR to score usually. its tough to lift Wrights ball.

If we are talking NY in day games they can hit.....seven batters above .307 in the sunshine and AROD @ .276 with 16hrs in 196abs aint shabby...the lone wolf is Posada who isnt suprising since he could be playing a day after nite game. Posada is 5 /16 aginst Jeremy and 280 with 20Hrs off RHP. Giambia is a beast in day games with 15 Hrs in 132 abs and a 341 clip! Johnny damon has blasted 14 hrs as well .307 clip. Whats best is they are LH , hit RH well and Bonderman struggles against LHB.

Cano 363 with 15 Hrs against RHP....Matsui 336 7Hr in 132 abs and Abreu .349 with 7Hrs as a NYY vs RH's. Everyone is 280+ except Giambi @ .270 with 28hrs in 312 abs...one per 11 abs!NY's LHB are 32 of 89 against Bonderman career ..only Giambi @ 3-15 is unimpressive.


The Tigers dont have solid day numbers thru there lineup....Thames 190 , Inge 222 Granderson 259 . At home only 3 guys are above 300..Magss and Pudge right at 300 with Guillen at 337 being the offense key.

So I am contemplating play NYY ML , Looking at Over 10 +104 , Over 5.5 NYY +105 team , Under 4.5 -115 team DET and 1st 5 INN over......Be back

I was going to play NY but I just cant now.......Giambi on the bench means Torre is clueless

Over 5.5 +102 First 5 Inn over (2x)
Over 5.5 +111 NYY team (2x)
Under 4.5 -111 Det team (1x)
Over 10 +100 (3x)