Friday MLB Playoffs

Minnesota @ Oakland

Its obvious to me that people are just 'betting' according to how they thought the series would go. For instance in Game 2 in Miny we saw a nice runnup in the line which closed at about -150....for Boof Bonser in a playoff game! Today I think we saw alot of LAD money cause people didnt expect the Mets to be up 2-0 and that line closed horrificly LOW @ -130 NYM. I mean last time KUO pitched @ Shea he was +155 vs John Maine...and Maine was -130 vs Lowe the previous day!

With that said it appears to be the ONLY reason one would back Minnesota in game 3 is for similiar reasons. People feel Minnesota would probably win this series and are chasing them.

This line is low folks. I jst mentioned Bonser was nearly -150 vs Loaiza. Well how bout the fact that Haren face Radke in Minny and was -120 and faced Radke in Oakland laying -170..

Lets remember Minnesota has failed to hit this series and is hitless with RISP. Looking back at there past 8 games its been much of the same...6 times they scored 2 or 3 runs, and they scored four or five one time apiece. Now Haren struggled his last few starts. However he has 5 career outings versus them and four are very solid. His ast 2 starts vs them span 14 innings and he didnt allow a run. The earlier meeting he lost 7-6 to Radke @ the Dome was rough 7runs in 6 innings. Previous to that he allowed 5earned (6runs) in 14 innings in 2 starts. haren has a 3.09 DAY ERA and less then 1.00 WHIP (only 66hits in 87.1inn)

Factor in Twinkies 2-12 Last 14 playoff games while OAK is 40-17 last 57 DAY games! The Twins have played 7 of 8 UNDER and 10 of 11 UNDER. Twins starting lineup is 20 for 88 career against Haren with only 2 Hrs.

Brad Radke is a MYSTERY IMO. We know about the labrum he is pitching with and the fact the guys arm hurts so much he doesnt even play catch bewteen starts. The guy has heart obviously. He just made his 1st appearance in a month vs KC lasting 5 solid innings but throwing only 57 pitches.

He started the year off terribly , especially on the road. His 1st 5 road outings were gruesome going 1-4. He lasted only 24 1/3 inning but allowed 48 hits , 27 runs and 7 hrs. He turned it around and before his las August start when he left due to injury. The 7 starts away inbewteen saw hm allow 19 earned (20runs) in 47 innings...the question is what do you expect??

Oakland are day WARRIORS...the whole lineup seems to hit better in day games and Big Hurt is .290 with 17hrs! The lineup itself is only very average against Radke in there careers.

Under seems to make sense but I prefer to play Minnesota under 4 runs ...

Play: Oakland -144 (waiting on this)

NYY @ DET

While many might disagree I still think NY has trouble vs LHP especially on the road. They start 5 LHB's and ARod is always a question in a big spot while SHEFF is still working his way back IMO. Posada hit better off RH this year and Jeter hits everyone.

I checked every home game for DET vs lefties and every road game for NY vs lefties.

Some interesting findings IMO:

New York is 16-6 @ Home vs LHP only 15-11 Away (actually 9-17 on the 1.5 RL as 6 wins were by 1 run)

In 26 away games started by LHP the Yankees hit ONLY 14 Hr's against those starters.

In those 26 starts only on 4 ocassions did the LH starter fail to complete 5 innings...Opening Day Barry Zito in Oakland , John Rheinckecker of Texas a marginal ML pitcher , Jon Lester of Boston in what was his last start , and Joe Saunders who complained of arm fatigue. Otherwise with 3 more exceptions where the SP went 5 innings...Lilly in April , Loewen shortly after being called up and Chen in early August did the SP fail to go 6 innings. That makes 18 of 26 starts where the LH SP went 6 or more innings vs NY!

In 26 SEPT innings spanning 4 starts the Yanks managed 4 runs and No Hrs against JP Howell , Adam Loewen , Eric Bedard and Jorge DeLaRosa. In 6 AUG starts they lit up Saunders and Lester but struggled versus but struggled vs Washburn , Wells and Lowen getting only 4 runs in 20 innings.

NY is 29-18 UND vs LHP and DET is 31-18 UNDER vs LHP. Yanks last 5 road playoff games went UNDER. They are 23-5-1 UND as a fav of bewteen 150 and 200. Under is 19-9-1 when DET is home vs LHP as well.

The Tigers vs LHP:
Pudge .340 5hrs
Maggs .294 9Hrs
Guillen .291 5 Hrs
Polanco .272
Monroe .271 only 2 Hrs
Casey .256 or Shelton if he plays
Inge . 243 6 hrs
Thames .238 8 Hrs
Granderson .218 4 hrs

Randy has been tough on DET allowing 4 runs and 6 hits in 14 innings some of which came in the top of the 9th inning in NYY...

Tigers were 8-5 2nd H vs LH at home witha 4-3 record in 1 run games.

This line is completey INFLATED. Heck Unit was -145 or so at home vs Bonderman on 8 /31...RJ was also a small dog @ DET earlier vs Bonderman.

The question is Randy healthy? I think he has pitched fairly well when healthy but has been inconsistent cause something always seem to be ailing him.

One thing I knowis Randy is 8-0 after a Yankee LOSS and Yanks are 8-0 when he starts vs the Central. In 4 away starts vs the Central 26 2/3 inn 13 h 6 runs 5 earned 7bb 22 K 1 Hr.


Kenny is 7-3(12-4) 3.26 at Home but 11 of 15 have also gone Under. Problem with the GAMBLER is we know about his failed history as a Yankee and how the Yanks alwayshit him hard. DET avoided pitching him in the Stadium I believe cause of this. He has pitched just one time vs NY since 2003 and it wasnt pretty but it also wasnt recent...Also Rogers wasnt sharp past 2 outings...

Basically I feel that if RJ is healthy NY has a good shot atwinning this but the price is a joke. I do fel that its verylikely this is a 1 run game going by the fact how many 1 run games these teams play against Lefties....Unfortunately it seems the RL for DET +1.5 -109 tells us that more then likely it wont be a 1run game.....however I tend to disagree...

Really would like to play the Under 9.5 +106 but waiting since Kenny vs NY is a question mark and RAndy 's back is a question mark!


PLAYS-
Oakland -145 (7x) which if the price falls I would add to my position (added 3x @ -138)
Under 4 -114 Twins team total(3x)

Played a PROP...Radke Under 87.5 pitches -108 (1x)

Nice start A's win 8-3!

Late game...
thinking Und 9.5 +105 and DET +1.5 -110...but I am Yankee fan and its tough...

simple MATH....NYY is 9-17 on the -1.5 RL vs LHP on the road and DET is 11-2 on the +1.5 RL @ Home in the 2nd Half!

More NYY - Tiger research......Still trying to debunk the theory that MY Yankees hit LHP well especially away..However I just noticed Torre sat Sheffield and Cano..

Posada .263 3Hrs in 137 abs vs .283 20Hr in 328abs
Giambi .213 9Hr in 132 abs vs. .270 28Hrs in 319abs
-Giambi also has extreme splits for day /nite
.217 22hrs in 314 abs @ Nite
.341 15hrs in 132 abs @ Day
Cairo .279 against LHP compared to Cano's .287 (neither HR'ed)
Jeter .390 4 Hrs.
ARod .294 10 Hrs
Matsui .226 1Hr in 53 abs.
Damon .297 6hrs
Abreu .281 0Hrs in 57 abs (.293 3hrs in 167abs season)
- All 3 OFs are LHB. Rogers allowed LHB to hit .200 this season and one would guess it was even lower then that at home consideing his significant difference in home / away splits.

Bernie .323 7Hrs in 133 abs to Sheffields .344 2hrs in 32 abs.

Against Kenny Rogers we have some gaudy numbers:

Damon 15-49 2Hrs
Gaimbi 10-23 5Hrs
Jeter 8-20
Posada 8-16 2hrs and 9 RBI
Arod 10-19 5Hrs
Bernie 12-34 2Hrs

Remember his last start was 2004 vs NY and before that 2002...not very recent..and rogers has probably gotten better with age unlike UNIT.

Key numbers...NYY only 14 Hrs vs LH starting Pitchers on the road versus Rogers allowing only 6 Hrs at home. Tells you NY will need to string together HITS to score. Which if you watch the Yankees know could be a HUGE PROBLEM...they just fail often in the clutch. WHile some might applaud Torre's lineup changes think about this...Abreu and Giambi batting 3rd and 5th are LH. Despite previous success both have struggled vs LH this year and Roger is holding LH to a .200 clip. Giambi's nite splits are also not very good. You then have Kenny Rogers facing ARod in the 4 hole......when has he been clutch?? He puts Posada 6th and you saw his numbers vs LHP followed by Matsui a LHB. Clearly Torre has done a nice job of reorganizing Murder's Row into a pitching edge for DET. Bernie and Cairo havent played in a week or so... He did a nice job watering down the lineup from 3-9 IMO.


Torre did an EXCELLENT JOB of relying on the past. Hoping that Kenny Rogers is the pitcher he was years ago in Oakland , Minny , NYM and Texas. All indications are that he isnt though. I dont think we can weigh the NYY lineup career numbers vs Rogers all that heavily here. What scares me some about Rogers is more his last 2 outings then his previous playoff track record or versus the NYY.

Obvioulsy the point of concern with UNIT is how healthy he is. The guy never seems to be truthful when it comes to this. Which is understandable but if your in that much pain you should say something. Anyway my point is RJ saying he is okay isnt very comforting....The positive with UNIT is his numbers vs the AL Central 8-0 and after a loss 8-0....As well as his numbers vs the DET lineup , limited but effective.

Pudge just 18 -73 .247
Polanco is 12-35 the only good numbers.
Maggs 2-10 but 2 Hrs and Thames 2/9 2Hrs
Casey 3-12 and Granderson 0-3 2K's.

That leaves Inge , Monroe and Guillen combined @ 5/22

I just dont see runs tonite if these SP are even close to on there game........

Tigers +1.5 RL -114 (3x) and +1.5 -118 (1x)

Under 10-110 (6x) look you can get this or very high + money with 9.5

Under 5.5 1st5 Inn -111 (2x)

Under 5.5 NYY team +102 (1x)

Bad back and cold weather are a concern for us Yankee fans.....I believe this game will be played tight since its so pivotal in the series...

GL