Saturday Thoughts
All I know is the last few days have been disappointing to many inconsistent sessions and poor choices.
MLB-
Rangers -109 (3units)
Looks like Travis Hafner will not play . Really Cliff Lee is a guy who goes out and gives you 6 innings and either allows 3 or 4 runs. Volquez is an unknown and I really am not sure what he will give you. With that said Lee has dropped 3 straight starts and 8 of 10. The Rangers also hit .300 at Home vs LHP and in Lee's 2 prior starts there he hasnt shown much. The big thing here was Clevelands inability to get outs from the pen on the road this year. The pen has greatly improved of late but much of there play was at home. Can they now lower that 5.80 Road era? Tribe play better in day games and Rangers at nite , plus Tribe really hasnt played well against Texas past few meetings. So after taking game 1 I look for Texas to tie up the series.
Under 10.5 -111 White Sox and Royals (2units)
Buerhle has struggled the past 2 months but has been decent past few outings. The road has been a huge concern for him in 2006 but he has 4 quality starts against KC including 2 at KAuffman. Just 6 earned runs in 24 innings this year. KC tends to struggle against LHP . Perez has pitched vs Chi twice and although the frist lasted just 4 inning it was to stretch out his arm.(11 INN 8 H 6 R)
Over 9 -101 LAA & Det(5units) & First 5 Inn +102 Over 5 (2units)
Basically the 2 youngsters IMO are tired. Saunders has complained about shoulder fatigue and really has been ineffective past few outings. Now he faces a Tiger team that generally hits LHP well and we could see a repeat of his last performance. Verlander also has struggled in teh second half as DET has looked to get him xtra rest whenever it could. LAA hit him enough in teh 1st outing in May to lead me to belive they should do so again. LAA is 5-1 Over after getting shutout. Lean heavily towards DET here.
Under 9 -112 Oakland & Balt -112 (5units)
The O's are the walking wounded with Mora , Hernandez , Patterson , Gibbons and Mora all possible sitting this one out. Chavez is questionable for Oak. Marvin Hudson tends to be an Under Ump and Oakland is 20-12 UNDER when opposing a LHP! Haren rebounded from his poor start in Tor with a strong 12 K effort in Texas. AT home Hren has seen 8 of 11 unders and 7 of in day starts. Haren has a 2.77ERA in both day and home starts.
Phillies Game 1 -125 (5units)
Yesterdays writeup
Have more MLB and NCAAF......
Saturday, September 02, 2006
Friday, September 01, 2006
FRIDAY Thoughts
Well short on time as the Cubbies start at 2:20 but Thursday was fairly solid especially in baseball!
Day Baseball
Under 4.5 -114 (3units) First 5 Innings
Staying away from these disastrous pens!
Real simple: Lowry pitching extremely well in August (his career best month) and has been fairly consistent on the road despite a 4.50 era. Cubbies do struggle to put up runs against L:H's despite solid stats in that department. A career 2nd Half stud!
Hill also throwing extremely well 7 earned runs in 28 AUG innings not includinmg Coors. Coors is like pitching on Mars I hardly ever use those stats in my capping. SF really poor against LHP. Durham is there big bat and he left thegame with a back strain yesterday. I bet he is only playing cause of the importance of the game so there key hitter looks less then 100%. Bonds is resting as well. Really after that its about Hillenbrand and Alou and Shea hasnt hit all that well since the trade but improving of late.
Like the Cubbies here but will pass!
It seems lately that I cant get the dam ntotals right! Basically had teh Cubs game pegged thinking Cubbies and Under 8 but went First 5 Under cause of 2 horrid pens! It seems that the unders I loselatelt are all pen related and I play a first 5 and I lose but it goes under!!
NL
Phillies -135 (5units) & -1.5 Runs +144 (2units)
This is all about Jon Leiber and fading Villareal and the 5 innings or 75 pitches he wil throw tonite. ATLs pen has been shaky recently and that is certainly a plus for me when I see a converted reliever starting. Then we have Leiber who's home splits look like hsit till you dig a little deeper. In 11 games athome he has been solid 8 times but the other 3 starts were BEATINGS that skewed his nunbers. In the good 8 he went 60 inn , 57 H , 24 runs (23er) , 7bb 36K and 6 Hrs. The bad 3 were 13 innings , 29 H , 22r (21 er) , 2bb 10 K and 7 Hr!! Last month he pitched well backing a recent trend for him . In AUG he allowed 10 earned(14 runs) in 36 2/3 innings. The past few SEP he is 9=1 with a 2.43 ERA in 12 starts and to day folks is SEPT , 1st!!
Villareal was real sharp his 1st two spot starts but unimpressive last time out vs Wash lasting but 3 innings. Again ATL's pen is shaky right now and Leiber has held the Jones boyz to 17 for 78 lifetime with 4hr and 11 Rbi plus a nice 2bb to 17 K ratio!
Think 10.5 is alot of runs here especially with this awful weather but will stay away.
Houston +112 (3units)
Could it be the winners of 6 staright are flying under the radar and a home doggie?? It appears that way to me. Glavine returns and appears to be okay after the blood clot scare but has had 16 days inbewteen starts. Glavine has struggled as a MET on the road and even in 2nd H of the season (except last yr). With Houston picking up momentum and winning 6 straight 4-1 against LHP and 19-11 against LHP this season.NY is also playing well and 20-15 vs LHP.
Wandy is almost as big a question mark as Glavine here. Wandy sort of has Jon Leiber disease. A few bad outings really wrecking his home numbers. With Wandy its only 2 awful starts skewing his numbers and I think getting skipped might have lit a fire inhim. I say that cause he was sharp in an relief appearance on 8/29. Take out Wandy's 2 horrific outings and he is 56 2/3 Inn , 57 H 25runs(23er) with 21 bb and 32 K's .
Also think 9.5 runs is high here but nothing on the under yet!!
Under 9.5 +105 NY and Hou(unit)
Brewers -139 (5units)
This is rematch from last week when MILW was swept in FLA and Capuano lost 4-3 to Sanchez. Capuano has been terrific athome this season going 10-2. Whats more impressive is his 11 quality starts in twelve. His 2 worst outinsg were vs Pitt 5 Inn 11h 6 r 2BB 4 K and early on when he went 6 1/3 INN 3 H 4runs (3er) with4 BB and 7 K. Yes that how good he is at home that 4 runs in 6++ innings is his second worst home start. Nine of the past 11 jome games have dropped UNDER the number .
Sanchez has been solid as anyone could hope for. With just 2 bad starts which both happened on the road nad during teh day...at nite he numbers have been damn solid! Now factor in Cabrera should be less then 100% and FLA is 15-20 vs LHP. Despite MILW lack of offense they were on teh road and FLA streak came at home. Looking at how to play the UNDER thinking the First 5 Innings (again).
Under 8.5 -101 MILW (3units) & Under 4.5 First 5 INN -109 (unit)
Pirates +1.5 -105 (2units) & Pitt +222(unit)
Cards continue to struggle against LHP and Duke did 1 hit them recently. FActor in Carpenter only 9-4 athome despite his solid pitching. reason being lack of run support. After dropping 3 staright starts the Cards have rebounded to win his last three. Factor in those 6 starts he faced Cubs 3 x , Cincy 2 x and Milw talk about slumping bats!!! Shot in the dark sort of but has merit. Shocking again thinking UNDER or First 5 Innings Under.
Under 4 -108 First 5 Inn(1unit) STL
Dodgers -155 (3units)
Jennings doesnt have much luck pitching in LAD and Colorado has just slumped miserably on the road. LA is team of streaks and now that they are winning again time to ride the wave I believe. In 7 games at LA the Rockies have ot topped more then 3 runs in any of them and managed 13 in 7 games! Rockies 5-18 away since the break....
Not suprising again think UNDER or First 5 Inn
Under 8 -112 LAD (3units)
AL
Blue Jays -125(3units)
Two slumping squads square off agian. Boston needed Alex Rios to boych a fly ball outinto a HRto actually win a game. Now they face the struggling Ted Lilly who has done extremely well as a visitor in Fenway. He has won his 3 last starts there and has 5 solid straight outings there. Over all 10 runs in 32 1/3 innings there but he hasnt been good at all recently. I am overlooking his recent starts and weighing his past history more. Especially since Boston struggles vs LHP and again has a depleted lineup.
Yankees -169 (3units)
No bullshit here its the Carlos Silva ROAD fade. He is 3-7(4-8) away with an 8.49ERA! minnys bats have quieted down and any time I can fade a DOME team in bad weather I will do so. The Minny bats have been silient of late and they need Johan to bail them out at home vs KC. Giambi probablhy wont play and Rivera might not be available....those are our 2 biggest negatives. Hopefully the 7 LH bats do enough damage to keep us from having to need someone close this out. Twins jsut 3-13 last 16 in NY and have lost 27 of 36 against NY.
Devil Rays +102 (2units)
SHields has held his own and lost 2-0 recently at Seattle. Meche has tsruggled past 6 weeks outside of teh Boston start and dropped career starts @ TB. DRays are 34 -31 at home and M's well below 500 away and 5-17 last 22 away. Thought Under as well but passed.
Really want to play DET( and suprise th eunder 9) but after that NY series I have lost alot of respect for how good that lineup really isnt.
Under 10 -110 KC and Chicago Wsox (2units)
Seemed abit odd this total saw some under movement so I checked it out. Hernandez is the giant killer cashing in 3 of hios past 4 styarts al as +200 or better dogs. he pitched well in all those games and generally he and Conteras as 1 of 2 things good or awful. Here is hoping for good.
CFB-
Fresno State -12 -110 (3units)
A new QB for the Bulldogs but I think Nevada is Jekyl and Hyde when talking about home and away. Nevada really doesnt travel well and will have to play at one of the toughest venues in CFB on openingnite against ateam seeking revenge. Huge defensive difference here. How many times do you see Fresno as less then 2 TDs home favs? Remeber they were about 16 pt favs @ Nevada last year.
NFL
Bengals -3-110 (5units)
With Palmer playing they just have a superior QB edge IMO. Colts never look to win in thepreseason under Dungy IMO.
Jets -5 -110 (3units)
Philly appears to be resting everyone! Al l starters plus Stallworth and Feeley dont appear set to play. Its abattle for the #3 spots on the depth chart in Philly and a chance for Ramsey to erase all doubts. The 31 total says alot about this game
Be back in abit to finalize some stuff. GOOD LUCK
Well short on time as the Cubbies start at 2:20 but Thursday was fairly solid especially in baseball!
Day Baseball
Under 4.5 -114 (3units) First 5 Innings
Staying away from these disastrous pens!
Real simple: Lowry pitching extremely well in August (his career best month) and has been fairly consistent on the road despite a 4.50 era. Cubbies do struggle to put up runs against L:H's despite solid stats in that department. A career 2nd Half stud!
Hill also throwing extremely well 7 earned runs in 28 AUG innings not includinmg Coors. Coors is like pitching on Mars I hardly ever use those stats in my capping. SF really poor against LHP. Durham is there big bat and he left thegame with a back strain yesterday. I bet he is only playing cause of the importance of the game so there key hitter looks less then 100%. Bonds is resting as well. Really after that its about Hillenbrand and Alou and Shea hasnt hit all that well since the trade but improving of late.
Like the Cubbies here but will pass!
It seems lately that I cant get the dam ntotals right! Basically had teh Cubs game pegged thinking Cubbies and Under 8 but went First 5 Under cause of 2 horrid pens! It seems that the unders I loselatelt are all pen related and I play a first 5 and I lose but it goes under!!
NL
Phillies -135 (5units) & -1.5 Runs +144 (2units)
This is all about Jon Leiber and fading Villareal and the 5 innings or 75 pitches he wil throw tonite. ATLs pen has been shaky recently and that is certainly a plus for me when I see a converted reliever starting. Then we have Leiber who's home splits look like hsit till you dig a little deeper. In 11 games athome he has been solid 8 times but the other 3 starts were BEATINGS that skewed his nunbers. In the good 8 he went 60 inn , 57 H , 24 runs (23er) , 7bb 36K and 6 Hrs. The bad 3 were 13 innings , 29 H , 22r (21 er) , 2bb 10 K and 7 Hr!! Last month he pitched well backing a recent trend for him . In AUG he allowed 10 earned(14 runs) in 36 2/3 innings. The past few SEP he is 9=1 with a 2.43 ERA in 12 starts and to day folks is SEPT , 1st!!
Villareal was real sharp his 1st two spot starts but unimpressive last time out vs Wash lasting but 3 innings. Again ATL's pen is shaky right now and Leiber has held the Jones boyz to 17 for 78 lifetime with 4hr and 11 Rbi plus a nice 2bb to 17 K ratio!
Think 10.5 is alot of runs here especially with this awful weather but will stay away.
Houston +112 (3units)
Could it be the winners of 6 staright are flying under the radar and a home doggie?? It appears that way to me. Glavine returns and appears to be okay after the blood clot scare but has had 16 days inbewteen starts. Glavine has struggled as a MET on the road and even in 2nd H of the season (except last yr). With Houston picking up momentum and winning 6 straight 4-1 against LHP and 19-11 against LHP this season.NY is also playing well and 20-15 vs LHP.
Wandy is almost as big a question mark as Glavine here. Wandy sort of has Jon Leiber disease. A few bad outings really wrecking his home numbers. With Wandy its only 2 awful starts skewing his numbers and I think getting skipped might have lit a fire inhim. I say that cause he was sharp in an relief appearance on 8/29. Take out Wandy's 2 horrific outings and he is 56 2/3 Inn , 57 H 25runs(23er) with 21 bb and 32 K's .
Also think 9.5 runs is high here but nothing on the under yet!!
Under 9.5 +105 NY and Hou(unit)
Brewers -139 (5units)
This is rematch from last week when MILW was swept in FLA and Capuano lost 4-3 to Sanchez. Capuano has been terrific athome this season going 10-2. Whats more impressive is his 11 quality starts in twelve. His 2 worst outinsg were vs Pitt 5 Inn 11h 6 r 2BB 4 K and early on when he went 6 1/3 INN 3 H 4runs (3er) with4 BB and 7 K. Yes that how good he is at home that 4 runs in 6++ innings is his second worst home start. Nine of the past 11 jome games have dropped UNDER the number .
Sanchez has been solid as anyone could hope for. With just 2 bad starts which both happened on the road nad during teh day...at nite he numbers have been damn solid! Now factor in Cabrera should be less then 100% and FLA is 15-20 vs LHP. Despite MILW lack of offense they were on teh road and FLA streak came at home. Looking at how to play the UNDER thinking the First 5 Innings (again).
Under 8.5 -101 MILW (3units) & Under 4.5 First 5 INN -109 (unit)
Pirates +1.5 -105 (2units) & Pitt +222(unit)
Cards continue to struggle against LHP and Duke did 1 hit them recently. FActor in Carpenter only 9-4 athome despite his solid pitching. reason being lack of run support. After dropping 3 staright starts the Cards have rebounded to win his last three. Factor in those 6 starts he faced Cubs 3 x , Cincy 2 x and Milw talk about slumping bats!!! Shot in the dark sort of but has merit. Shocking again thinking UNDER or First 5 Innings Under.
Under 4 -108 First 5 Inn(1unit) STL
Dodgers -155 (3units)
Jennings doesnt have much luck pitching in LAD and Colorado has just slumped miserably on the road. LA is team of streaks and now that they are winning again time to ride the wave I believe. In 7 games at LA the Rockies have ot topped more then 3 runs in any of them and managed 13 in 7 games! Rockies 5-18 away since the break....
Not suprising again think UNDER or First 5 Inn
Under 8 -112 LAD (3units)
AL
Blue Jays -125(3units)
Two slumping squads square off agian. Boston needed Alex Rios to boych a fly ball outinto a HRto actually win a game. Now they face the struggling Ted Lilly who has done extremely well as a visitor in Fenway. He has won his 3 last starts there and has 5 solid straight outings there. Over all 10 runs in 32 1/3 innings there but he hasnt been good at all recently. I am overlooking his recent starts and weighing his past history more. Especially since Boston struggles vs LHP and again has a depleted lineup.
Yankees -169 (3units)
No bullshit here its the Carlos Silva ROAD fade. He is 3-7(4-8) away with an 8.49ERA! minnys bats have quieted down and any time I can fade a DOME team in bad weather I will do so. The Minny bats have been silient of late and they need Johan to bail them out at home vs KC. Giambi probablhy wont play and Rivera might not be available....those are our 2 biggest negatives. Hopefully the 7 LH bats do enough damage to keep us from having to need someone close this out. Twins jsut 3-13 last 16 in NY and have lost 27 of 36 against NY.
Devil Rays +102 (2units)
SHields has held his own and lost 2-0 recently at Seattle. Meche has tsruggled past 6 weeks outside of teh Boston start and dropped career starts @ TB. DRays are 34 -31 at home and M's well below 500 away and 5-17 last 22 away. Thought Under as well but passed.
Really want to play DET( and suprise th eunder 9) but after that NY series I have lost alot of respect for how good that lineup really isnt.
Under 10 -110 KC and Chicago Wsox (2units)
Seemed abit odd this total saw some under movement so I checked it out. Hernandez is the giant killer cashing in 3 of hios past 4 styarts al as +200 or better dogs. he pitched well in all those games and generally he and Conteras as 1 of 2 things good or awful. Here is hoping for good.
CFB-
Fresno State -12 -110 (3units)
A new QB for the Bulldogs but I think Nevada is Jekyl and Hyde when talking about home and away. Nevada really doesnt travel well and will have to play at one of the toughest venues in CFB on openingnite against ateam seeking revenge. Huge defensive difference here. How many times do you see Fresno as less then 2 TDs home favs? Remeber they were about 16 pt favs @ Nevada last year.
NFL
Bengals -3-110 (5units)
With Palmer playing they just have a superior QB edge IMO. Colts never look to win in thepreseason under Dungy IMO.
Jets -5 -110 (3units)
Philly appears to be resting everyone! Al l starters plus Stallworth and Feeley dont appear set to play. Its abattle for the #3 spots on the depth chart in Philly and a chance for Ramsey to erase all doubts. The 31 total says alot about this game
Be back in abit to finalize some stuff. GOOD LUCK
Thursday, August 31, 2006
What a disappointing finish to my WED nite. After several poor decisions and being on the wrong side of several meltdowns on Tuesday the ship was righted early on WED. Problem is I then had only a few minutes to look atthe nite card and paid dearly for it. Tonite the Texas pen broke down and Chi won but not by 2 runs. Then the kicker is a 4-2 game in the bottom of the 8th I have to watch LAD conect for 3 solo Hrs to ruin by under 8.5! Shit happens but the truth is hard work cannot be overlooked. I need more hours in the damn day! Had to run out before the braves game and i was loving that Under just as I am looking at it a flood of OVER money comes in and I pass. I look back and see the line settled down in the minutes afterwards . What can you do! Thats why I can have my posts up that early in baseball I need to see any funny money moves.
Day Card-
Yankees -139 (5units)
Over 9 -102 NYY& DET -102 (unit) now +110 (1 more unit)
This is much more riskier then it appears. Randy Johnson has been consistently inconsistent this season for whatever reasons..lack of velocity , poor mechanics , flat slider you name it! We have 2 SP on different ends of the spectrum regarding second half pitching and the months of AUG and SEPT. For as good as Bonderman is for some reason he falls apart come AUG 1st till the end of the season. The kid is 4-13 in 22 career AUG starts with a 5.68 ERA , 1.61 WHIP and .298 BAA!! This yr he is 0-1 in 5 starts the Tigers are 2-3 in those games but its usually his worst ERA month. Last yr 1-4 6.75 era , 2004 again 1-4 except only 4.31 era , 2003 was 2-4 6.68 ERA. Basically I have DET at 6-15 with a no decision I cant acoount for in 22 career AUG starts with no sign of improvement really. For whatever reason he also falters in day starts this season going 1-4 in 8 starts witha 4.94 era , 1.31 WHIP , .266 BAA compared to 3.14 , 1.10 ,.227 at nite. The wrench in this arguement is his 3.14 road era and 1.10 whip , 7-2 record! One thing for sure is he should face alot of LHB maybe seven tmrw and thats trouble for him: 276 LH and .218 RH. Also note that I mentioned in my WED thread DET just not playing all that good in the 2nd Half 24-21(10-11 away). They should have lost both ends yesterady but Torre is a baffoon.
Now Randy is no prize in day starts either....5-4 10 starts witha 5.40 Era. The real problem is I believe he has 5 day starts at home that he is 1-4 in meaning 5-0 away. How bout 24 innings ( never more then 6) and 21 earned runs , 29 runs!!! That does mean though on the road he has 37 innings and 16 earned. So hopefully nothing to that trend just victim of circumstance. Randy was 11-2 at home last year and only 6-6 so far this yr. A s mentioned his day splits not so good but his WHIP(1.23) and BAA (.225) tell a different story IMO. Really DET 's lineup hasnt faced randy much and hasnt had much success either against him.
Looking at the SP names you think 9.5 runs and immediately under pops into your head. Well DET is 29-12 UND against LHP despite a 30-14 SU record vs them. DET is 26-22 in day games but NYY is 29-18(thinmk 30-18 now).
Twins -1 Run -264 (5units)
Over 8 +101 (2units) now +115
Hate these damn RL's just to lower VIG! This is about Minny having there ace on the hill and needing a win to avoid the sweep. That ACE- Johan Santana has led Minny to wins in 9 consecutive starts and is 14-0 @ home this yr. Only 3 were by 1 run in that 9 gm stretch and they were all road stops and of the 14 wins at home only 3 by 1 run.
Santana is 41-9 post Break in his career and 20-4 in AUG witha 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He hasnt been so good vs KC this yr but all 3 starts were at Kauffman. One unnerving factor is Minnys sudden slump against LHP dropping 5 of 6. This year KC has NOT won 3 straight at anytime on the road but has won 2 straight on 7 occassions now. In 5 of the 6 they proceed to lose by 2+ runs(obvioulsy they are 0-6 with consecutive road wins). They are 19-42 L 61 @ MINNY. Minny is 31-5 and 35-7 when laying at least -200 at home. Twinkies have won 14 of past 18 day starts and Santana is 8-0 on Thursday this year. He is 25-2 when laying -200 or more and 24-2 @ Home vs losing teams. Now Miny isnt a great day team at 19-18 but KC only 9-31. Twinkies now 25 up against LHP after 1-5 stretch fare better then KC who is 10-29 against LHP.
A huge game for Minny and they clearly have the edge in the pen. WOuld probably play the OVER @ 8 runs if we get there. Partially because KC's pen is so-so and has a 5 inning SP on the hill but also KC is 23-14 OV against LHP and 25-14 OV in the day.
Under 6 Runs +100(now -111) First 5 Innings TB and Chi WSox (2 units)
Javy Vaquez is pitching much better in AUG allowing jsut 12 runs in 31 innings. He also is 3-1 witha 3.12 ERA in day starts. So while TB has picked up the slack on offense recently they still arent scoring all that mcuh away with there depleted , new look lineup. Hammel has been decent inthe 2 starts after his debut and was okay on the weekend. Baldelii and Thome appear OUT as well.
AL @ Nite
Under 5 +101 Toronto First 5 Innings(2units) & Und 9.5 -110 (unit) & Boston +117 +1.5 RL (unit)
A play based on the fact the Boston will face ROY with a depleted lineup. He should keep them in check and I think Tavarez for 3 innings and then tehe rest of the pen could do a good job here. It;s still Fenway and remember Toronto got swept @ CLE and is poor on the real stuff!
Orioles +120 (2units)
Basically we have Adam Eaton struggling past 2 starts after being effective. This could be some sort of dead arm period for him since his season started late. Last 2 starts only 8 innings nad 8 runs allowe dbut 21 baserunners! Theflip side would be Cabrera who has been decent against Tex in the past. Cabrera is unscore dupon in his prior 2 starts spanning 15 innings (10 hits and 5 BB to 17K's) . Patterson a nd Hernandez appear OUT.
NL @ Nite
Rockies -112(7units)
Think you have to ride the slumping Rockies here. Oliver Perez seemed to be slightily improved in hsi 2006 NYM debut but control still an issue. This guy was 0-5 (team 0-7) with a9.51 Road era this yr. Both teams are solid vs LHP with NY being 21-14 (24-9-1 OVER though) and Col going 13-10 (13-10 UND). Francis is 6-4(team 8-4) witha 3.32 ERA at Coors. Wasnt a week or so ago when Francis was a small fav in Shea against Dave Williams. Now you get him at home for that price.
Rockies hit .301 against Lefties at home compared to .254 for the NYM away. NY has done a great job of pouncing on the COL SP 1st 2 games but that should be much tougher tonite.
Under 9 -102 Stl and Fla (2units) & Under 5 -105 First 5 Innings(3units)
Marlins +112 (2units) (might go +1.5 -180 instead)
D-Train has been better away this year and receives little run support on the road. Thats how you twirl a 3.33 ERA and go 4-6 (team 4-10) (10-4 UNDER though). Luckily he faces a STL team struggling against LH see how Dave Williams , Scott Olsen and Richie Hill fared past week vs them(forget Les Walrond !). All season StL is 19-30 vs LHP witha .269 BA and 4.4 runs per. Now Suppan has been solid at the NEW BUSCH going 8-5 with a 3.04 ERA!
Under 8.5 -102 Milw and Houston (2units)
Struggling lineups and Fiedler appears to be getting a nite off. Home plate UMP has been a huge UNDER UMP in a few appearances this season. Davis is inconsistent on the road and especially at Houston alternating good & bad...thankfully its time for his good start at Houston(j/k). Brewers 15 runs last 6 games(10 last 5 ).
National +125 (2units) & -1.5 +220 (unit)
Astacio has been solid at home 3.47 ERA / 1.10 WHIP (4-2)and WASH above 500 against LHP. Wolf has managed to win his 1st 6 starts without pitching well( avg run support is 10 runs!!). This is the rematch of last week slugfest that Wolf held on for a 12-10 win. Wolf has been a 5 inning pitcher since returning from the DL as well. Think with price and Nats avoiding the sweep ( after a Robinson tongue lashing last nite) we have nice value. Myers and Hamels clearly much better SP were only about 20$ or so more while Astacio is probably on common ground withARmas and Ortiz when starting at home. Meeting in Philly was -165 as well....
Note fairly ODD IMO that the Under 10 has -128 vig since this was a 12-10 game last week.
CFB :(Thursday)
Central Michigan +12 -110(3units)
Under 42 -105 (unit)
BC graduated some key players and also has 5 quality players listed as questionable who probably wont play. CMU has a young QB but a solid defense which makes me think they will not allow him to do much and try and force a BC mistake or two. The Eagles didnt exactly score much on the road in 2005 and I expecting 20-24 here.
Jim Ramella
DE
Out Indefinitely (shoulder)
Andre Callender
RB
Questionable Week 1 (shoulder)
Tony Gonzalez
WR
Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
Ty Hall
OG
Questionable Week 1 (neck)
Tyronne Pruitt
LB
Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
B.J. Raji
DT
Questionable Week 1 (leg)
Miss St + 7 -110 (3units)
Under 40.5 -105 (2units)
South Carolina another team who struggled to put points up in 2005 on the road facing a solid defense. Muchlike CMU you wonder where the point swill come from Miss St. Thinking worst case this is 17-10
Nwestern ML -200 (2units)
Under 55 -102 (unit)
Miami Ohio is just flat rebuilding IMO( and everyone elses). The lost there QB , 3 OL starters and 5 of 6 linebackers from last year and now Murphy (RB) is probably out. Hopefully the Wildcats play an emotionally charged game for the late Randy Walker as well.
SD ST ML -135 (3units)
UTEP IMO just got more credit then they deserved last year and really played asoft schedule. Chuck Long takes over in SD and this is a mission statement type game.
I wish that we were full strength going into this game, but we`re not,” Price told the El Paso Times. “We`re leaving a couple of real good players at home.”
Over Iowa St and Toledo 55 -108(3units)
Iowa State is going to be remembered as a solid defense but they return very little from that group. Even with Toledo losing Gradowski they should still score some points here. Iowa St returns alot on offense and in the home opener against a MAC defense should put up 35+.
NY Giants -3 -113(3units)
New York's starters will go 10 to 12 plays, coach Tom Coughlin said. New England's Bill Belichick hasn't said how much his group will play. He played only one starter in last year's preseason finale between the clubs. Real simple approach I see Coach Belichick just resting his gusy and waiting for week 1 and keeping the playbook s vanilla as possible.
Panthers -3 -108(3units)
Looks like Pitt could be 0-4. We should see alot of Shane Boyd and Charlie Batch tonite coupled with RB's Staley and Haynes who havent done much in the preseason. Panthers depth and especially at RB.
Phins (2units) CANCEL
Over 35 -102 Bills -Lions (3units)
Both teams deep at QB but not on defense.
Falcons -4.5 -108(3units)
Schaub , Shockley and Norwood are the keys. garrard didnt look good 2 weeks ago and 2 pass attempts wont change much after last week. Jones and TAylor arent playing leaving Pearman , Toefield and Drew. Jags first team offense didnt look good last week and generally I just dont expect much from Jax especially after suffering a few injuries recently they might really scale back.
Ravens -3+115(3units)
The Skins have looked awful! Plain and simple. Does Campbell and Collins do anything to inspire you? The Skins have had ZERO SUCCESS running the ball and now get that Ravens defense even if its the second team defense. Just dont see WAS scoring much and Baltimore has a former starting QB to take alot of snaps in Boller.
Saints -3 +100(3units)
The Saints have Jaime Martin and Todd Bouman batting for the backup QB job while KC has Casey Printers of CFL fame and Brodie Croyle just 1 of 9 last week!! KC also thin at RB and WR spots.
Cardinals -3.5 -103 (2units)
Matt Leinart...
Leans : Texans and Under , Browns and Under.
Early returns were solid....only that stupid play on the Minny Over 8. Didnt I just say Minny has struggled vs LHP and you knew KC wouldnt score more then twice!
Yanks -139 (5units) Win 6-4 (win) +5.00
Over 9 -102 (unit) & Over 9 +110 (win) +2.10
Twinkies -1 -264 (5units) Won 3-1 (win) +5.00
Over 8 +102 Minny (2units) Lost -2.00
Under 6 even WSox First 5 Inn (2units) Win 1-1 after 5 Inn (win) +2.00
4-1 +12.10 early
Day Card-
Yankees -139 (5units)
Over 9 -102 NYY& DET -102 (unit) now +110 (1 more unit)
This is much more riskier then it appears. Randy Johnson has been consistently inconsistent this season for whatever reasons..lack of velocity , poor mechanics , flat slider you name it! We have 2 SP on different ends of the spectrum regarding second half pitching and the months of AUG and SEPT. For as good as Bonderman is for some reason he falls apart come AUG 1st till the end of the season. The kid is 4-13 in 22 career AUG starts with a 5.68 ERA , 1.61 WHIP and .298 BAA!! This yr he is 0-1 in 5 starts the Tigers are 2-3 in those games but its usually his worst ERA month. Last yr 1-4 6.75 era , 2004 again 1-4 except only 4.31 era , 2003 was 2-4 6.68 ERA. Basically I have DET at 6-15 with a no decision I cant acoount for in 22 career AUG starts with no sign of improvement really. For whatever reason he also falters in day starts this season going 1-4 in 8 starts witha 4.94 era , 1.31 WHIP , .266 BAA compared to 3.14 , 1.10 ,.227 at nite. The wrench in this arguement is his 3.14 road era and 1.10 whip , 7-2 record! One thing for sure is he should face alot of LHB maybe seven tmrw and thats trouble for him: 276 LH and .218 RH. Also note that I mentioned in my WED thread DET just not playing all that good in the 2nd Half 24-21(10-11 away). They should have lost both ends yesterady but Torre is a baffoon.
Now Randy is no prize in day starts either....5-4 10 starts witha 5.40 Era. The real problem is I believe he has 5 day starts at home that he is 1-4 in meaning 5-0 away. How bout 24 innings ( never more then 6) and 21 earned runs , 29 runs!!! That does mean though on the road he has 37 innings and 16 earned. So hopefully nothing to that trend just victim of circumstance. Randy was 11-2 at home last year and only 6-6 so far this yr. A s mentioned his day splits not so good but his WHIP(1.23) and BAA (.225) tell a different story IMO. Really DET 's lineup hasnt faced randy much and hasnt had much success either against him.
Looking at the SP names you think 9.5 runs and immediately under pops into your head. Well DET is 29-12 UND against LHP despite a 30-14 SU record vs them. DET is 26-22 in day games but NYY is 29-18(thinmk 30-18 now).
Twins -1 Run -264 (5units)
Over 8 +101 (2units) now +115
Hate these damn RL's just to lower VIG! This is about Minny having there ace on the hill and needing a win to avoid the sweep. That ACE- Johan Santana has led Minny to wins in 9 consecutive starts and is 14-0 @ home this yr. Only 3 were by 1 run in that 9 gm stretch and they were all road stops and of the 14 wins at home only 3 by 1 run.
Santana is 41-9 post Break in his career and 20-4 in AUG witha 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He hasnt been so good vs KC this yr but all 3 starts were at Kauffman. One unnerving factor is Minnys sudden slump against LHP dropping 5 of 6. This year KC has NOT won 3 straight at anytime on the road but has won 2 straight on 7 occassions now. In 5 of the 6 they proceed to lose by 2+ runs(obvioulsy they are 0-6 with consecutive road wins). They are 19-42 L 61 @ MINNY. Minny is 31-5 and 35-7 when laying at least -200 at home. Twinkies have won 14 of past 18 day starts and Santana is 8-0 on Thursday this year. He is 25-2 when laying -200 or more and 24-2 @ Home vs losing teams. Now Miny isnt a great day team at 19-18 but KC only 9-31. Twinkies now 25 up against LHP after 1-5 stretch fare better then KC who is 10-29 against LHP.
A huge game for Minny and they clearly have the edge in the pen. WOuld probably play the OVER @ 8 runs if we get there. Partially because KC's pen is so-so and has a 5 inning SP on the hill but also KC is 23-14 OV against LHP and 25-14 OV in the day.
Under 6 Runs +100(now -111) First 5 Innings TB and Chi WSox (2 units)
Javy Vaquez is pitching much better in AUG allowing jsut 12 runs in 31 innings. He also is 3-1 witha 3.12 ERA in day starts. So while TB has picked up the slack on offense recently they still arent scoring all that mcuh away with there depleted , new look lineup. Hammel has been decent inthe 2 starts after his debut and was okay on the weekend. Baldelii and Thome appear OUT as well.
AL @ Nite
Under 5 +101 Toronto First 5 Innings(2units) & Und 9.5 -110 (unit) & Boston +117 +1.5 RL (unit)
A play based on the fact the Boston will face ROY with a depleted lineup. He should keep them in check and I think Tavarez for 3 innings and then tehe rest of the pen could do a good job here. It;s still Fenway and remember Toronto got swept @ CLE and is poor on the real stuff!
Orioles +120 (2units)
Basically we have Adam Eaton struggling past 2 starts after being effective. This could be some sort of dead arm period for him since his season started late. Last 2 starts only 8 innings nad 8 runs allowe dbut 21 baserunners! Theflip side would be Cabrera who has been decent against Tex in the past. Cabrera is unscore dupon in his prior 2 starts spanning 15 innings (10 hits and 5 BB to 17K's) . Patterson a nd Hernandez appear OUT.
NL @ Nite
Rockies -112(7units)
Think you have to ride the slumping Rockies here. Oliver Perez seemed to be slightily improved in hsi 2006 NYM debut but control still an issue. This guy was 0-5 (team 0-7) with a9.51 Road era this yr. Both teams are solid vs LHP with NY being 21-14 (24-9-1 OVER though) and Col going 13-10 (13-10 UND). Francis is 6-4(team 8-4) witha 3.32 ERA at Coors. Wasnt a week or so ago when Francis was a small fav in Shea against Dave Williams. Now you get him at home for that price.
Rockies hit .301 against Lefties at home compared to .254 for the NYM away. NY has done a great job of pouncing on the COL SP 1st 2 games but that should be much tougher tonite.
Under 9 -102 Stl and Fla (2units) & Under 5 -105 First 5 Innings(3units)
Marlins +112 (2units) (might go +1.5 -180 instead)
D-Train has been better away this year and receives little run support on the road. Thats how you twirl a 3.33 ERA and go 4-6 (team 4-10) (10-4 UNDER though). Luckily he faces a STL team struggling against LH see how Dave Williams , Scott Olsen and Richie Hill fared past week vs them(forget Les Walrond !). All season StL is 19-30 vs LHP witha .269 BA and 4.4 runs per. Now Suppan has been solid at the NEW BUSCH going 8-5 with a 3.04 ERA!
Under 8.5 -102 Milw and Houston (2units)
Struggling lineups and Fiedler appears to be getting a nite off. Home plate UMP has been a huge UNDER UMP in a few appearances this season. Davis is inconsistent on the road and especially at Houston alternating good & bad...thankfully its time for his good start at Houston(j/k). Brewers 15 runs last 6 games(10 last 5 ).
National +125 (2units) & -1.5 +220 (unit)
Astacio has been solid at home 3.47 ERA / 1.10 WHIP (4-2)and WASH above 500 against LHP. Wolf has managed to win his 1st 6 starts without pitching well( avg run support is 10 runs!!). This is the rematch of last week slugfest that Wolf held on for a 12-10 win. Wolf has been a 5 inning pitcher since returning from the DL as well. Think with price and Nats avoiding the sweep ( after a Robinson tongue lashing last nite) we have nice value. Myers and Hamels clearly much better SP were only about 20$ or so more while Astacio is probably on common ground withARmas and Ortiz when starting at home. Meeting in Philly was -165 as well....
Note fairly ODD IMO that the Under 10 has -128 vig since this was a 12-10 game last week.
CFB :(Thursday)
Central Michigan +12 -110(3units)
Under 42 -105 (unit)
BC graduated some key players and also has 5 quality players listed as questionable who probably wont play. CMU has a young QB but a solid defense which makes me think they will not allow him to do much and try and force a BC mistake or two. The Eagles didnt exactly score much on the road in 2005 and I expecting 20-24 here.
Jim Ramella
DE
Out Indefinitely (shoulder)
Andre Callender
RB
Questionable Week 1 (shoulder)
Tony Gonzalez
WR
Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
Ty Hall
OG
Questionable Week 1 (neck)
Tyronne Pruitt
LB
Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
B.J. Raji
DT
Questionable Week 1 (leg)
Miss St + 7 -110 (3units)
Under 40.5 -105 (2units)
South Carolina another team who struggled to put points up in 2005 on the road facing a solid defense. Muchlike CMU you wonder where the point swill come from Miss St. Thinking worst case this is 17-10
Nwestern ML -200 (2units)
Under 55 -102 (unit)
Miami Ohio is just flat rebuilding IMO( and everyone elses). The lost there QB , 3 OL starters and 5 of 6 linebackers from last year and now Murphy (RB) is probably out. Hopefully the Wildcats play an emotionally charged game for the late Randy Walker as well.
SD ST ML -135 (3units)
UTEP IMO just got more credit then they deserved last year and really played asoft schedule. Chuck Long takes over in SD and this is a mission statement type game.
I wish that we were full strength going into this game, but we`re not,” Price told the El Paso Times. “We`re leaving a couple of real good players at home.”
Over Iowa St and Toledo 55 -108(3units)
Iowa State is going to be remembered as a solid defense but they return very little from that group. Even with Toledo losing Gradowski they should still score some points here. Iowa St returns alot on offense and in the home opener against a MAC defense should put up 35+.
Kent St +14.5 -105 (2units)
After yrs of being spoiled by great RB's gone now are Barber and Malroney. They have lost 3 starting OL and while Cupito and his WR core return the Golden Flash have a decent secondary. Factor in the chances the running game is missing and the OL is trying to mesh on the road and wecould have a flat offense tonite from Minnymaking a 2 TD spread even bigger then it suggests). Kent St was awful last yr but thanks to all those injuries the youngsters developed experience. Dont understimate Minny recent success early on in past seasons inflating this number. As I said we are accustomed to watching Miny pound out of conference foes in past years but maybe Mason has a soft spot for his former employer.
Middle Tenn State -9 -107 (unit)
Really think that while Mid Tenn state lostto FIU last year we have to remember they lost a close game and were favored by -4.5 pts. That certainly translates into a Double Digit spread when playing at home. Mid Tenn returns 8 starters on offense but there defense took a hit with only 4 returnees. New coach should be huge motivation here and I think a little much is being made of FIU late 3 game run. They were only 1-5 away last yr and while they dont need to win I think its foolish to think they have a legit chance. Look at Mid Tenny schedule can they afford not to win thsi game>>
NFL PreSeason
NY Giants -3 -113(3units)
New York's starters will go 10 to 12 plays, coach Tom Coughlin said. New England's Bill Belichick hasn't said how much his group will play. He played only one starter in last year's preseason finale between the clubs. Real simple approach I see Coach Belichick just resting his gusy and waiting for week 1 and keeping the playbook s vanilla as possible.
Panthers -3 -108(3units)
Looks like Pitt could be 0-4. We should see alot of Shane Boyd and Charlie Batch tonite coupled with RB's Staley and Haynes who havent done much in the preseason. Panthers depth and especially at RB.
Phins (2units) CANCEL
Over 35 -102 Bills -Lions (3units)
Both teams deep at QB but not on defense.
Falcons -4.5 -108(3units)
Schaub , Shockley and Norwood are the keys. garrard didnt look good 2 weeks ago and 2 pass attempts wont change much after last week. Jones and TAylor arent playing leaving Pearman , Toefield and Drew. Jags first team offense didnt look good last week and generally I just dont expect much from Jax especially after suffering a few injuries recently they might really scale back.
Ravens -3+115(3units)
The Skins have looked awful! Plain and simple. Does Campbell and Collins do anything to inspire you? The Skins have had ZERO SUCCESS running the ball and now get that Ravens defense even if its the second team defense. Just dont see WAS scoring much and Baltimore has a former starting QB to take alot of snaps in Boller.
Saints -3 +100(3units)
The Saints have Jaime Martin and Todd Bouman batting for the backup QB job while KC has Casey Printers of CFL fame and Brodie Croyle just 1 of 9 last week!! KC also thin at RB and WR spots.
Cardinals -3.5 -103 (2units)
Matt Leinart...
Leans : Texans and Under , Browns and Under.
Early returns were solid....only that stupid play on the Minny Over 8. Didnt I just say Minny has struggled vs LHP and you knew KC wouldnt score more then twice!
Yanks -139 (5units) Win 6-4 (win) +5.00
Over 9 -102 (unit) & Over 9 +110 (win) +2.10
Twinkies -1 -264 (5units) Won 3-1 (win) +5.00
Over 8 +102 Minny (2units) Lost -2.00
Under 6 even WSox First 5 Inn (2units) Win 1-1 after 5 Inn (win) +2.00
4-1 +12.10 early
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
WED Thoughts
Last nite was one fuck job after another. First I cant even explain how many leans that I passed on that won....Phillies , Braves , over Braves , over Cubbies , Mets , Over WSox , Under A's and the beat goes on. Then how bout the MILW pen allwoing a 7 spot in the bottom ofthe 8th inning whne I have the under...it was 1-0 after5 innings. Same carp in Texas O's pen allows a 5 spot in a 4-3 game in the bottom of the 7 th. Red Sux lose 2-1 and I was dead wrong about those totals being to high in Wash and LAD. First real losing day...
Early:
Yankees -173(2units)
Under 9.5 +100 NYY and DET(3units)
First with NY we have Wang on the hill. The kid has been consistent , after a rough outing at home vs LAA he bounced back with solid efforts and wins. he is 6-1 since the break (NY is 6-2 when he starts). NY has won seven of his 9 day starts even though his ERA is higher at 4.48. He has gone UNDER 10 of past 12 at home as well. Yanks should benefit from 2 days off after west coast trip.
Det has Robertson on the hill who is 3-4 during teh day this yr and improvement to prior seasons(just 1-7 lastyr). Career his numbers are 8-18 6.13 ERA inthe day and 4.04 ERA At nite. Thats why I dropped the size on the total. The key I think is Robertson has been very effective on LHB .176 BAA and 0.70 WHIP.
Tigers started AUG 6-1 buthave tailed off and dropped 13 of 19 , 7 of 10 and are only 23-20 since the break. Wang had won 8 straight starts at home before the LAA start. I think the fact that the STADIUM will be empty today with the early start and bad weather helps keep the game atmosphere flat.
Pirates -124 (2units)
Probably looks weird to see Victor Santos as a favorite but he actually was favored a few times vs CHI in 2005. Truth is CHI is reeling at the moment. Just when it cant get any worse it does. They couldnt hit in StL losing 2-0 and 2-1 which the pen blew. When they finally did on Sunday thetre pen blew it late again witha walkoff GRAND SLAM. On Monday there SP gets rocked again and yesterday with xtra innings they again had to call on the pen which blew it again.
Cubs have dropped 9 of 10 and start a guy who is basically only giving them 5 innings a start maybe 6...enter tired pen. Santos has had success vs CHI in his career. Since 2004 when he was a Brewer he has made 9 starts vs them. In those starts he has one poor outing to speak off. His 1st start 0f 2006 against them. Now his day numbers stink but we are overlooking that. In 9 starts vs them he has on seven occassion gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more then 3 runs...one other start was 5 inn and 2 runs. Based on his recent starts and career record I am comfortable expecting a 6 inning 3 run stint from him and hoping the pen can hold on for a 5-4 type win.
Red Sux +132 (2units)
Last nite was one fuck job after another. First I cant even explain how many leans that I passed on that won....Phillies , Braves , over Braves , over Cubbies , Mets , Over WSox , Under A's and the beat goes on. Then how bout the MILW pen allwoing a 7 spot in the bottom ofthe 8th inning whne I have the under...it was 1-0 after5 innings. Same carp in Texas O's pen allows a 5 spot in a 4-3 game in the bottom of the 7 th. Red Sux lose 2-1 and I was dead wrong about those totals being to high in Wash and LAD. First real losing day...
Early:
Yankees -173(2units)
Under 9.5 +100 NYY and DET(3units)
First with NY we have Wang on the hill. The kid has been consistent , after a rough outing at home vs LAA he bounced back with solid efforts and wins. he is 6-1 since the break (NY is 6-2 when he starts). NY has won seven of his 9 day starts even though his ERA is higher at 4.48. He has gone UNDER 10 of past 12 at home as well. Yanks should benefit from 2 days off after west coast trip.
Det has Robertson on the hill who is 3-4 during teh day this yr and improvement to prior seasons(just 1-7 lastyr). Career his numbers are 8-18 6.13 ERA inthe day and 4.04 ERA At nite. Thats why I dropped the size on the total. The key I think is Robertson has been very effective on LHB .176 BAA and 0.70 WHIP.
Tigers started AUG 6-1 buthave tailed off and dropped 13 of 19 , 7 of 10 and are only 23-20 since the break. Wang had won 8 straight starts at home before the LAA start. I think the fact that the STADIUM will be empty today with the early start and bad weather helps keep the game atmosphere flat.
Pirates -124 (2units)
Probably looks weird to see Victor Santos as a favorite but he actually was favored a few times vs CHI in 2005. Truth is CHI is reeling at the moment. Just when it cant get any worse it does. They couldnt hit in StL losing 2-0 and 2-1 which the pen blew. When they finally did on Sunday thetre pen blew it late again witha walkoff GRAND SLAM. On Monday there SP gets rocked again and yesterday with xtra innings they again had to call on the pen which blew it again.
Cubs have dropped 9 of 10 and start a guy who is basically only giving them 5 innings a start maybe 6...enter tired pen. Santos has had success vs CHI in his career. Since 2004 when he was a Brewer he has made 9 starts vs them. In those starts he has one poor outing to speak off. His 1st start 0f 2006 against them. Now his day numbers stink but we are overlooking that. In 9 starts vs them he has on seven occassion gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more then 3 runs...one other start was 5 inn and 2 runs. Based on his recent starts and career record I am comfortable expecting a 6 inning 3 run stint from him and hoping the pen can hold on for a 5-4 type win.
Red Sux +132 (2units)
Zito was filthy last time out and how could I fade him? Zito is pitching much better away then at home this year....4-6 4.57 ERA @ Home and 10-2 2.87 Away. He also owns a 5 career ERA against Boston and yes this is Boston-lite but it still says Red Sox across there uniforms. Zito has allowed 21 runs in 21 2/3 innings in his past 4 home starts( three of which he lasted only 5 innings)
The key is Curt Schilling always put forward a top notch effort when his team needs it and they clearly need it here . Boston hasnt scored much pat 5 games think just 7 times!! Schilling not a ssharp on the road as a t Fenway still managed to go 7-0 in 9 starts in 2004 (2.71 ERA & 0.86 WHIP) and is 3-2 witha 3.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season. Sox won 16 of Schill's past 20 day starts.
Three key batters in the Sox lineup wil be Cora as hitting 414 against LHP this yr , Kapler 7 /25 lifetime against Zito , Pedroia for all his 3 -25 he is 2-5 against LHP , Pena whoi s 5/16 off Zito with 2 Hrs and has 8 career Hr's vs OAK his former organization. I say this because they have success in today 's situation whether it be vs Oak , vs a LHP , or against Zito. These replacements have been the down fall of Boston as they have provided ZIP! in Manny and Ortiz's absence! Really want to play this heavier but I need to be cautious here!
DBacks -131 (2units)
Never a big fan of backing rematch SP's. This means that on 8/18 this guys squared off and Vargas won...I feel its tough to beat the same SP let alone the same team in a short period of time.
Basically a SD fade here. Thompson hasnt pitched well on the road with a 7.50 ERA in 6 starts and allowed 47 hits in 30 innings. SD hasnt played well in ZONA losing 47 of 65 there. Vargas isnt anything special but has authored two great games against SD this season @ Petco...7 shutout innings and 7 innings allowing 1 run. Last yr he was decent in two starts going 6 allowing 3 runs both times. Think if we see a 9.5 total down from 10 runs the over might be the play as well even with Iassagona behind the dish.
NL leans I am looking at SFG +130 , Cincy +116 and Fla +119. AL thinking Texas -144 & Cle -163
Night:
Indians -171 (2units)
Fading Toronto on grass , with Marcum pitching and because Sowers hs been so solid at home.
Under 10.5 -108 NYY and Det(unit)
Both pens got rest in Game 1 and basically all this is a continuation of my thoughts yesterday and today except the SP isnt as strong but we get 10.5 instead of 9.5.
White Sox -1.5RL-116 (2units)
Think TB has now lost 19 of 20 since the Break on the road and all but 3 hae been by 2++ runs. Garland has been fantastic past few starts and facing a depeleted TB lineup it should continue.
Rangers -147 ( 2units)
Marlins +123 (unit)
along for the ride.
Giants +130 (2units)
Was all set to play the under til some huge money came in on the over which moved the total from Under -119 to Over -121 in about 3 minutes....
Well looks like I blew my nice start.......Had a few minutes to cap the games that started at 7 or 8 and seems I rushed a bit!
Reds +121 (3units)
Under 4.5 First 5 INN -108 (3units)
Under 8.5 -102 game (2units)
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Tuesday Thoughts
Let's get right to work after a solid Monday nite.
Under 9.5 -102 NYY and DET(5units)
We have two solid and fairly consistent SP's squaring off tonite at the Stadium. Which BTW should be cool and possibly damp. Wang loves the Stadium going 9-2(11-3 when he starts) with a 2.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Ten of his fourteen home games have dropped under the total. He was shaky in his lone outing vs DET this year but I believe the situation aided that. NY was trying to complete a 4 game sweep in DET and lets say that I believe the cards were stacked against Wang even before he stepped on the mound. Wang and Robertson both have better NITE splits this year as well. Robertson has performed better on the road posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Outside of 1 rough outing @ NY a few years back Robertson always seems to pitch well against us and Wang was tough on DET in bothg '05 starts. Both teams can call upon strong bullpens as well.
The Yankees havent hit LHP all that well IMO since the break. Giambi 's numbers are down vs LH this year and we added Abreu to the mix. Bernie busted out the other nite butI take that with a grain of salt as Saunders has been complaining of a tired arm lately and we couldnt hit him earlier at the Stadium...see those freaky things happen in 'sweep' situations. Recently I have watched Loewen (twice) , Bedard , Wells , Washburn , even Chen pitch solid games.
For trends the Tigers are 47-2 UND @ nite , 72-43 UND on grass , 16-9UND in AUG . They have scored 5 runs or less in 10 of 13 and allowed 4 runs or less in 8 of 13. NYY is 23-16 UND against LHP , 36-25 UND at home , 20-3 UND when favored bewteen 150 and 2000 @ home . Hopefully RAIN doesnt interfere with the game.
White Sox -209 (2units) & -1.5 RL -102 (unit)
Mariners +122 (2units)
Sometimes you have to think like a day trader and just ride the momentum wheter it's positive or negative! Seattle is just flat out HOT after being ICE COLD. Washburn is facing his former team for the 5th time in 2006. He has led the M's to wins in three of them but lost @ LA last week while Jered Weaver has been filthy twice against SEA shutting them down(once was last week). Hopefully seeing Weaver twice in a week will be somewhat helpful and Washburn can make the proper adjustments. Washburn has pitched extremely well recently at Safeco.
Really leaned heaviest to Minnesota before passing. Just hate that chalk with a youngster versus a guy who was an ALL Star a month ago. Garza is legit though and should keep this team in check. There in no reason to attempt to make sense of Boston and Oakland . The other Game Tor and Cle was interesting. You dont know how healthy Chacin is and you have a Tribe team who is just as bad against LHP as Tor is on grass!! Thought over but hoped for 9 runs.
working on the rest....pouring down the Jersey Shore now
Under 9.5 -127 Wash and Philly (3units)
Throwing all the stats and trends out the window. Basing this one one angle. I think this number is set to high for a game in Washington. Myer and Armas dueled last weel and the number was 10 and that was in Philly and they battled in Wash earlier in the season and that game it opened 8.5 went down to 8. Now we get a full run more!
Nothing on the Pirate total as I passed.
Marlins +112 (unit)
Reality is we dont know what is up Mark Mulder. hell he didnt pitch well in rehab so the beating was no suprise in NY. Olsen was slumping for awhile but gets a StL lineup who still isnt hitting very well against LH(unless I count Les Walrond!!). Same deal as Seattle riding the momentum train.
Under 8.5 -123 Houston and Milwaukee (3units)
Basically we have two slumping offense with deplted lineups due to injury. We have Oswalt who has been filthy last few starts at home . Oh and Oswalt before his lackluster April home start vs MILW had 4 starts vs them at home spanning 32 1/3 innings allowing 3 runs....check that Brewer lineup again. Houston with its own offensive woes also doesnt hit Ohka very well for some reason. This yr 1 earned run (3runs) in 12 innings of work.
Change in plans........
Red Sox +115 (2units)
Late Nite:
Now I have had some weird ideas tonite but this as my strongest play seems the weirdest. I just dont get this total @ 9.5. Hendrickson has not received much run support as a Dodger and despite alot of ridicule he really hasnt pitched that badly. Milton has pitched better away since joing Cincy and just dueled Maddux at home but lost 3-0. LAD didnt hit very well off Michalak last nite so why would I expect Milton to get shelled here? The Cincy lineup right now is Griffey , Encarnacion and Phillips
Thats it for now working on the last of the nite games. GL
Let's get right to work after a solid Monday nite.
Under 9.5 -102 NYY and DET(5units)
We have two solid and fairly consistent SP's squaring off tonite at the Stadium. Which BTW should be cool and possibly damp. Wang loves the Stadium going 9-2(11-3 when he starts) with a 2.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Ten of his fourteen home games have dropped under the total. He was shaky in his lone outing vs DET this year but I believe the situation aided that. NY was trying to complete a 4 game sweep in DET and lets say that I believe the cards were stacked against Wang even before he stepped on the mound. Wang and Robertson both have better NITE splits this year as well. Robertson has performed better on the road posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Outside of 1 rough outing @ NY a few years back Robertson always seems to pitch well against us and Wang was tough on DET in bothg '05 starts. Both teams can call upon strong bullpens as well.
The Yankees havent hit LHP all that well IMO since the break. Giambi 's numbers are down vs LH this year and we added Abreu to the mix. Bernie busted out the other nite butI take that with a grain of salt as Saunders has been complaining of a tired arm lately and we couldnt hit him earlier at the Stadium...see those freaky things happen in 'sweep' situations. Recently I have watched Loewen (twice) , Bedard , Wells , Washburn , even Chen pitch solid games.
For trends the Tigers are 47-2 UND @ nite , 72-43 UND on grass , 16-9UND in AUG . They have scored 5 runs or less in 10 of 13 and allowed 4 runs or less in 8 of 13. NYY is 23-16 UND against LHP , 36-25 UND at home , 20-3 UND when favored bewteen 150 and 2000 @ home . Hopefully RAIN doesnt interfere with the game.
White Sox -209 (2units) & -1.5 RL -102 (unit)
Usually I dont bother with high chalk games unles I take the dog. However I just cant seem to figure out what TB is doing right now. There battling injuries and working in more new young players. They have dropped 18 of 19 on the road since the break and despite consecutive 1 run losses they still managed just three 1 run losses in this span.
The White Sox for some reason have trouble with LHP(Dye ,Crede and Konerko..what's the problem??) but Fossum has trouble on the road. This year he sports a 7.11 road ERA and last year he was 2-7 away. In 50 2/3 Inning awayhe has allowed 43 runs in 10 starts,so expect the recently improved(hopefully overworked) pen to get alot of work. Garcia is 6-3 with a 4.28 ERA at home but has had some recent difficulties with TB. This TB lineup is abunch of new faces with limited abs against Freddy. The key out is Carl Crawford first for his hitting ability second for his SB threat(Garcia can be run on think 32 of 33 successful SB attempts). rFeddy's last 3 at home vs NY , Tex and Det span 21 innings 18 hits 7earned (8runs) 5BB 17K 2Hrs. Taking the team fighting for there life.
Under 10 +106 Texas and Baltimore(3units)Now this is something that I sort of uncovered and wasnt looking for. Both teams are struggling offensively at the moment ...Rangers 3 runs (exactly ) in 6 of the past 7 games(the other was 4 runs). Past 11 games they have scored bewteen 2 and 4 runs on 9 occassions. Baltimore since its 15-0 win last week has scored 23 runs in 7 games. Now both SP don't exactly pitch well in these situations (Lopez away and Millwood at Arlington) BUT they have solid track records vs the opponent.
Lopez in 2 home starts and one road start(2004 -2006) has gone 18 innings and allowed 6 runs in three low scoring matchups. Millwood has allowed 6 runs in 21 innings the past 2 seasons including 3 runs in 15 inn this yr. He also spun a CG at Arlington versuis BALT in May.Mariners +122 (2units)
Sometimes you have to think like a day trader and just ride the momentum wheter it's positive or negative! Seattle is just flat out HOT after being ICE COLD. Washburn is facing his former team for the 5th time in 2006. He has led the M's to wins in three of them but lost @ LA last week while Jered Weaver has been filthy twice against SEA shutting them down(once was last week). Hopefully seeing Weaver twice in a week will be somewhat helpful and Washburn can make the proper adjustments. Washburn has pitched extremely well recently at Safeco.
Really leaned heaviest to Minnesota before passing. Just hate that chalk with a youngster versus a guy who was an ALL Star a month ago. Garza is legit though and should keep this team in check. There in no reason to attempt to make sense of Boston and Oakland . The other Game Tor and Cle was interesting. You dont know how healthy Chacin is and you have a Tribe team who is just as bad against LHP as Tor is on grass!! Thought over but hoped for 9 runs.
working on the rest....pouring down the Jersey Shore now
Under 9.5 -127 Wash and Philly (3units)
Throwing all the stats and trends out the window. Basing this one one angle. I think this number is set to high for a game in Washington. Myer and Armas dueled last weel and the number was 10 and that was in Philly and they battled in Wash earlier in the season and that game it opened 8.5 went down to 8. Now we get a full run more!
Nothing on the Pirate total as I passed.
Marlins +112 (unit)
Reality is we dont know what is up Mark Mulder. hell he didnt pitch well in rehab so the beating was no suprise in NY. Olsen was slumping for awhile but gets a StL lineup who still isnt hitting very well against LH(unless I count Les Walrond!!). Same deal as Seattle riding the momentum train.
Under 8.5 -123 Houston and Milwaukee (3units)
Basically we have two slumping offense with deplted lineups due to injury. We have Oswalt who has been filthy last few starts at home . Oh and Oswalt before his lackluster April home start vs MILW had 4 starts vs them at home spanning 32 1/3 innings allowing 3 runs....check that Brewer lineup again. Houston with its own offensive woes also doesnt hit Ohka very well for some reason. This yr 1 earned run (3runs) in 12 innings of work.
Change in plans........
Red Sox +115 (2units)
Had to step back and think about this . Boston has Josh Beckett on the hill and is +115 versus Kirk Saarloos!! I know people wil rationalize it with but NO Manny , Ortiz or Pena. Absolutely true otherwise it would be Boston -130 or so. Beckett was -175 at Fenway vs Zito and -110 @ Oakland vs Zito....think about that. The red Sox lineup is thin but its still a very hittable Kirk Saarloos. Dont get fooled into looking at last nite games as some sort of barometer. Loaiza has been filthy for awhile now and is much better then Saarloos.
Beckett's last 3 road starts are very solid 6inning outings allowing 1 ,2 and 3 earned. he has 5 road starts of 7+ innings and 3 runs or less and 4 more starts of 6 innings and 3 runs or less. He has 2 medicore starts of 6+ and 7+ innings where he allowed 5 runs and 3 absolute shellings that skew his numbers. Those 3 outings 9 2/3 innings and 22 earned runs allowed!! Now realize he has allowed51 earned in 82 road innings......so the other 11 outings 72 1/3 INN and 29 earned which drops his ERA into the high 3's.
As I now deeply regret not playing the Pirate Over I also much mention and I could be wrong that I feel the books have dropped the line in the Met/ rockie game to get people thinking and draw some Rockie money IN. It's a conspiracy theory alright but that what I think.Late Nite:
Diamondbacks +109 (unit)
I guess I dont believe that Chris Young is healthy right now. Also dont see why you would lay chalk with a Padre team that 17-47 last 64 @ ZONA.
Under 9.5 -108 LAD and Cincy (5units)Now I have had some weird ideas tonite but this as my strongest play seems the weirdest. I just dont get this total @ 9.5. Hendrickson has not received much run support as a Dodger and despite alot of ridicule he really hasnt pitched that badly. Milton has pitched better away since joing Cincy and just dueled Maddux at home but lost 3-0. LAD didnt hit very well off Michalak last nite so why would I expect Milton to get shelled here? The Cincy lineup right now is Griffey , Encarnacion and Phillips
Thats it for now working on the last of the nite games. GL
Past Three days
Since I had some free time I caught up with my past few days to keep my record straight.
YTD UPDATE: Last Tuesday thru TODAY-Monday(++79.27)
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.70
(5units) 6-3-1 +13.85
(3units) 16-9 +18.48
(2units) 11-6 + 9.30
(1unit) 27-27-1 +1.94
Yesterday- (+17.92)
Phillies +136 (3units) Loss
Phillies -1.5 +212 (unit) Loss
Over 5 -108 First 6 Innings NYM and Philly (unit) Win
Indians -108 (3units) Win
Indians -1.5 +187 (unit) Win
Over 9.5 +122 Indians (2units) Win
Over 8 +114 Pitt (5units) Win
Pirates -144 (2units) Win
Brewers +105 (unit) Loss
Under 8.5 Milw & Fla -110(2units) Win
Under 8.5 -103 Arizona & SD (3units) Loss
Under 4.5 +101 First 5 Innings (unit) Loss
Arizona -140(unit) Win
LAD -177 (3units)Win
Mariners -112 (2units) Win
Under 9.5 -116 Oakland and Boston (3units) Win
Under 5 First 5 Inn +106 (unit) Push
(5unit) 1-0 +5.70
(3unit) 3-2 +2.91
(2unit)4-0 +8.44
(1unit)3-3-1 +0.87
Sunday (-2.32)
Marlins -119(2units) Win
Indians -114(2units) Loss
Royals (unit) +161 Loss
Over Cle & Det 9.5 -121(2units) Loss
Over 10 KC and Tor +104 (2units) Win
Phillies +136 (2units) & ARL +208 (unit) RAIN
Pirates +109 (2units)Loss
Over 10 +102 Pitt & Houston (3units) Win
Under 10 +102 Chicago and Minny(2units) Win
White Sox -143 (unit)Win
Under 10.5 +!06 LAA and NYY (3units) Loss-dumb
Giants -137 (2units)Win
Over 9 -123 LAD and Zona (3units) Push
Zona +110(unit) and ARL +200 (unit) Loss
Texans +5.5 even money (2units)Win
Rangers -106 (3units)Win
Cubs +1.5 -125 (2units) & Cubs +172 (unit) Loss-walkoff Grannie
Under 9.5 -110 ChiC& StL (3units) Loss-Dumb
(3unit) 2-2 -0.24
(2unit) 5-4 +0.92
(1unit)1-4 -3.00
Saturday(-4.62)
Braves -219 (2units) Win
Cubs +1.5 runs +107 (unit) Win
Giants -111(3units) Win
Over 8.5 -116 SFG (5units) Loss
Over 5.5 +103 LAA and NYY First 5 Inn(unit) Win
LAA -103 (unit) Win
Over 5 +106 Toronto First 5 Inn (unit) Loss
Under 9 +101 Baltimore and TB(3units) Win
Bills -3-120 (unit) Loss
Chargers -3.5 -104 (unit) Win
Jags -3.5 -106 (3units) Win
Rams +3 -108 (3units)Loss
Rangers -111 (5units)Loss
White Sox+129 (2units) Loss
Under 9 DET & CLE -103( 2units)Loss
Indians even(2units)Win
Under 9.5 Sea & Bos +105(unit) Win
(5unit) 0-2 -11.30
(3unit) 3-1 +5.79
(2unit) 2-2 -0.06
(1unit)5-2 +2.95
Since I had some free time I caught up with my past few days to keep my record straight.
YTD UPDATE: Last Tuesday thru TODAY-Monday(++79.27)
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.70
(5units) 6-3-1 +13.85
(3units) 16-9 +18.48
(2units) 11-6 + 9.30
(1unit) 27-27-1 +1.94
Yesterday- (+17.92)
Phillies +136 (3units) Loss
Phillies -1.5 +212 (unit) Loss
Over 5 -108 First 6 Innings NYM and Philly (unit) Win
Indians -108 (3units) Win
Indians -1.5 +187 (unit) Win
Over 9.5 +122 Indians (2units) Win
Over 8 +114 Pitt (5units) Win
Pirates -144 (2units) Win
Brewers +105 (unit) Loss
Under 8.5 Milw & Fla -110(2units) Win
Under 8.5 -103 Arizona & SD (3units) Loss
Under 4.5 +101 First 5 Innings (unit) Loss
Arizona -140(unit) Win
LAD -177 (3units)Win
Mariners -112 (2units) Win
Under 9.5 -116 Oakland and Boston (3units) Win
Under 5 First 5 Inn +106 (unit) Push
(5unit) 1-0 +5.70
(3unit) 3-2 +2.91
(2unit)4-0 +8.44
(1unit)3-3-1 +0.87
Sunday (-2.32)
Marlins -119(2units) Win
Indians -114(2units) Loss
Royals (unit) +161 Loss
Over Cle & Det 9.5 -121(2units) Loss
Over 10 KC and Tor +104 (2units) Win
Phillies +136 (2units) & ARL +208 (unit) RAIN
Pirates +109 (2units)Loss
Over 10 +102 Pitt & Houston (3units) Win
Under 10 +102 Chicago and Minny(2units) Win
White Sox -143 (unit)Win
Under 10.5 +!06 LAA and NYY (3units) Loss-dumb
Giants -137 (2units)Win
Over 9 -123 LAD and Zona (3units) Push
Zona +110(unit) and ARL +200 (unit) Loss
Texans +5.5 even money (2units)Win
Rangers -106 (3units)Win
Cubs +1.5 -125 (2units) & Cubs +172 (unit) Loss-walkoff Grannie
Under 9.5 -110 ChiC& StL (3units) Loss-Dumb
(3unit) 2-2 -0.24
(2unit) 5-4 +0.92
(1unit)1-4 -3.00
Saturday(-4.62)
Braves -219 (2units) Win
Cubs +1.5 runs +107 (unit) Win
Giants -111(3units) Win
Over 8.5 -116 SFG (5units) Loss
Over 5.5 +103 LAA and NYY First 5 Inn(unit) Win
LAA -103 (unit) Win
Over 5 +106 Toronto First 5 Inn (unit) Loss
Under 9 +101 Baltimore and TB(3units) Win
Bills -3-120 (unit) Loss
Chargers -3.5 -104 (unit) Win
Jags -3.5 -106 (3units) Win
Rams +3 -108 (3units)Loss
Rangers -111 (5units)Loss
White Sox+129 (2units) Loss
Under 9 DET & CLE -103( 2units)Loss
Indians even(2units)Win
Under 9.5 Sea & Bos +105(unit) Win
(5unit) 0-2 -11.30
(3unit) 3-1 +5.79
(2unit) 2-2 -0.06
(1unit)5-2 +2.95
Monday, August 28, 2006
Monday Thoughts
Had some problems getting on the site. Therefore this play has already started:
Phillies _136 (3units) & ARL +212 (unit)
Over 5 First 5 Innings -108 (unit)
Basically this was a fw things :
The NYM seem to struggle against LHP recently dropping 7 of the past 9 games against a LH. Moyer has been solid vs the NL in 4 starts this yr 8 runs in 30 innings. The NYM have a slumping a Wright which leaves really LoDuca and reyes as the toughest outs in there lineup against a lefty. Beltran just 263 but 8hr -37 rbi and Delgado 221 with 34 K's in 122 abs.
Just thought Maine was slipping past few starts and wa slucky to get away with a win in his last start. Thid time could be the charm for Philly here and thought this was a high price.
Night Games:
Indians -108 (3units) & -1.5 +187 (unit)
Over 9.5 +122 (2units)
Okay we always hear LOCATION , LOCATION , LOCATION preached in real estate and when starting a business. Tonite we apply that to this matchup. The Tribe have won 8 of the past 9 at home , Byrd has won 9 of his 11 starts at home(or Cleveland has won 9 of 11) , jays are just 2-9 last 11 meetings vs Cleveland. Here is the real kicker though Jays are just 19-30 on grass and Burnett is 0-4 with a6.23 ERA in these situations. He has 5 starts spanning 26 innings allowing 34 hits 22 run (18er) 5BB 22K and 5 HR!!
With those poor numbers is it not safe to assume we could see alot of runs. After all Byrd is 3-6 witha 5.53 ERA at nite (12-6 over record). Also 8-3 over at home. Both teams have tremendous OVER splits with totals of 9 to 9.5( Tor 17-10 over away & Tribe 22-10 over home). Tribe hitting 333 L10 against RHP and .290 at home off RHP!! So waiting to see if this drops to 9 runs and I will play the over then.
Over 9 +114 (holding out for 8.5)Chicago and Pitt (5units)
Pirates -144 (2units)
The way I see it we have up and down Ian Snell on the hill vs Chicago who will have Derrick Lee in the lineup. Snell has been hit hard in both meeting vs Chiacgo this yr. On the flip side we have Angel Guzman pitching @ Pitt and he has been rokced in his 2 away starts. so the question is can the youngster pitch on the road. Not to mention he has lost all 6 of his 2006 starts and seen 5 of the 6 sail over. Basically just fading CHIC away as Snell is 10-4(14-7) 3.90 ERA at nite (1.40 WHIP)..
Brewers +105 (unit) & Under 8 Fla-110 (units)
Late Night
Under 8.5 -103 Arizona & SD (3units)
Under 4.5 +101 First 5 Innings (unit)
Arizona -140(unit)
Playing Arizona based on SD 's record of 17-46 last 63 trips to ARIZONA! Oh and Zona has there ace Brandon Webb on teh hill and even with recent struggles he is 7-1 2.99 at home. he also lost a close friend in that plane crash tragedy yesterday so lets hope that motivates him rather then distracts him.
The under is based on Woody Williams throwing real well recently . Going 3-0 in 21 2/3 INN past 3 starts with a 2.49 ERA. It appears that he always pitches fairly well against Zona and has done so far this year twice 4runs in 14 1/3 inn. Webb as I mentioned has a 2.79 ERA at home and 2.99 in nite starts. Both lineups have there offensive issues lately and tough to get them starightened out here. The one cause for concern is both pens but I am hoping the SP go into the 7th inning at the very minimum.
LAD -177 (3units)
This looks like a crazy price to me and it doesnt stop going higher. This yr LAD has 6 hitters hitting 308++ against LHP and the team is 323 at home vs Lefties. Michalak hasnt started on teh road yet or since 2001 and that has to be cause for concern. The Reds are resting Dunn and have managed 2 runs in the past 3 games. Unfortunately they are 7-2 after being shutout which scares me. Thing is they havent scored at all on the road lately.....16 runs last 7 away games but games with 6 and 7 accounted for nearly all of them. Penny has been extremely tough on Cincy past 2 yrs(2 starts) and is facing a slumping lineup. LAD has an edge in the pen as well here IMO.
LA has faced 6 LH and went 5-1 since the Break, losing only 3-1 to Francis.
LAst 2:
Mariners -112 (2units)
Mariners are streaky this year and going to ride this wave...
Under 9.5 -116 Oakland and Boston (3units)
Under 5 First 5 Inn +106 (unit)
Oakland is 19-11 Under against LH and only has a few guys who hit well againstthem payton , Kielty and Kendall. Boston w/o a few stars starting a real thin lineup against a red hot Loaiza who has pitched nicely against them in his career.
Had some problems getting on the site. Therefore this play has already started:
Phillies _136 (3units) & ARL +212 (unit)
Over 5 First 5 Innings -108 (unit)
Basically this was a fw things :
The NYM seem to struggle against LHP recently dropping 7 of the past 9 games against a LH. Moyer has been solid vs the NL in 4 starts this yr 8 runs in 30 innings. The NYM have a slumping a Wright which leaves really LoDuca and reyes as the toughest outs in there lineup against a lefty. Beltran just 263 but 8hr -37 rbi and Delgado 221 with 34 K's in 122 abs.
Just thought Maine was slipping past few starts and wa slucky to get away with a win in his last start. Thid time could be the charm for Philly here and thought this was a high price.
Night Games:
Indians -108 (3units) & -1.5 +187 (unit)
Over 9.5 +122 (2units)
Okay we always hear LOCATION , LOCATION , LOCATION preached in real estate and when starting a business. Tonite we apply that to this matchup. The Tribe have won 8 of the past 9 at home , Byrd has won 9 of his 11 starts at home(or Cleveland has won 9 of 11) , jays are just 2-9 last 11 meetings vs Cleveland. Here is the real kicker though Jays are just 19-30 on grass and Burnett is 0-4 with a6.23 ERA in these situations. He has 5 starts spanning 26 innings allowing 34 hits 22 run (18er) 5BB 22K and 5 HR!!
With those poor numbers is it not safe to assume we could see alot of runs. After all Byrd is 3-6 witha 5.53 ERA at nite (12-6 over record). Also 8-3 over at home. Both teams have tremendous OVER splits with totals of 9 to 9.5( Tor 17-10 over away & Tribe 22-10 over home). Tribe hitting 333 L10 against RHP and .290 at home off RHP!! So waiting to see if this drops to 9 runs and I will play the over then.
Over 9 +114 (holding out for 8.5)Chicago and Pitt (5units)
Pirates -144 (2units)
The way I see it we have up and down Ian Snell on the hill vs Chicago who will have Derrick Lee in the lineup. Snell has been hit hard in both meeting vs Chiacgo this yr. On the flip side we have Angel Guzman pitching @ Pitt and he has been rokced in his 2 away starts. so the question is can the youngster pitch on the road. Not to mention he has lost all 6 of his 2006 starts and seen 5 of the 6 sail over. Basically just fading CHIC away as Snell is 10-4(14-7) 3.90 ERA at nite (1.40 WHIP)..
Brewers +105 (unit) & Under 8 Fla-110 (units)
Late Night
Under 8.5 -103 Arizona & SD (3units)
Under 4.5 +101 First 5 Innings (unit)
Arizona -140(unit)
Playing Arizona based on SD 's record of 17-46 last 63 trips to ARIZONA! Oh and Zona has there ace Brandon Webb on teh hill and even with recent struggles he is 7-1 2.99 at home. he also lost a close friend in that plane crash tragedy yesterday so lets hope that motivates him rather then distracts him.
The under is based on Woody Williams throwing real well recently . Going 3-0 in 21 2/3 INN past 3 starts with a 2.49 ERA. It appears that he always pitches fairly well against Zona and has done so far this year twice 4runs in 14 1/3 inn. Webb as I mentioned has a 2.79 ERA at home and 2.99 in nite starts. Both lineups have there offensive issues lately and tough to get them starightened out here. The one cause for concern is both pens but I am hoping the SP go into the 7th inning at the very minimum.
LAD -177 (3units)
This looks like a crazy price to me and it doesnt stop going higher. This yr LAD has 6 hitters hitting 308++ against LHP and the team is 323 at home vs Lefties. Michalak hasnt started on teh road yet or since 2001 and that has to be cause for concern. The Reds are resting Dunn and have managed 2 runs in the past 3 games. Unfortunately they are 7-2 after being shutout which scares me. Thing is they havent scored at all on the road lately.....16 runs last 7 away games but games with 6 and 7 accounted for nearly all of them. Penny has been extremely tough on Cincy past 2 yrs(2 starts) and is facing a slumping lineup. LAD has an edge in the pen as well here IMO.
LA has faced 6 LH and went 5-1 since the Break, losing only 3-1 to Francis.
LAst 2:
Mariners -112 (2units)
Mariners are streaky this year and going to ride this wave...
Under 9.5 -116 Oakland and Boston (3units)
Under 5 First 5 Inn +106 (unit)
Oakland is 19-11 Under against LH and only has a few guys who hit well againstthem payton , Kielty and Kendall. Boston w/o a few stars starting a real thin lineup against a red hot Loaiza who has pitched nicely against them in his career.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Early starts:
Marlins -119(2units)
Indians -114(2units)
Royals (unit) +161
Over Cle & Det 9.5 -121(2units)
Over 10 KC and Tor +104 (2units)
Phillies +136 (2units) & ARL +208 (unit)
The real stuff is coming up:
1:35 start:
Pirates +109 (2units)
Over 10 +102 Pitt & Houston (3units)
With how Houston has been playing why would you want to lay money with them on the road? Then factor in that they dont have Clemens or Pettitte on the hill. What has Hirsch shown to date to be a road fav? Chacon has at leats been decent in 2 of his 3 starts. The exception was versus Houston but he also turned out to be hurt. Pitt is a 500 team at home and Houston is 28-37 away. Ensberg and Biggio appear to again be out of the lineups. Dont get me wrong Pits 12-33 day record or 4-16 Sunday record is alarming but Houston 6-13 as small road chalk doesnt help either.
2:05 PM
Under 10 +102 Chicago and Minny(2units)
White Sox -143 (unit) avoid the sweep and fade Silva away.
Always like to gamble that an extra inning affair followed by a day game is cause for a flat game. Factor in Mike reilly behind teh dish and his usually wide zone could be very helpful in sppeding up this game. Minny only .255 away aginst LHP.
3;35 PM
Under 10.5 +!06 LAA and NYY (3units)
Right now I think NY has really struggled against LHP. You go back to Washburn and Wells in teh past week looking real sharp against us despite not pitching extremely well beforehand. You go back to the Baltimore series and we struggled mightily at home versus Loewen and Bedard. Karstens to me looked okay in Seattle a bad pitch or two and that was it. His comfortable level should be ten fold here. NYY is 23-15 under against LHP and LAA wasnt exaclty hittingbefore this series believe just 4 of the past 14 games have seen them top 5 runs.
4:05 PM
Giants -137 (2units)
Kyle Lohse has been awesome since the trade BUT lets face it all he is doing is vindicating the people who argue theNL is now the junior league. Still even with his great performances as a RED I still envision him as just a 6 inning guy and that leaves the end of the game wide open IMO. Hey SF isnt exactly shutting the door late but Matt Cain is the story here IMO>. Cain has been extremely IMPRESSIVE in 5 post Btreak starts at home. How bout 35 2/3 innings ( 7,7,7,8 2/3 asnd 6) , 25 hits , 8 runs , 9BB( 4 in the 1st start) 36 Ks and 2 Hrs allowed! Cincy still just 5-15 past 20 day starts.
Over 9 -123 LAD and Zona (3units)
Zona +110(unit) and ARL +200 (unit)
Billingsley has been real solid but the kid has struggled somewhat when he starts in the day ( but only 3 starts). BAsically he is 5 or 6 inning type starter on the road even though he went 7 strong earlier at Zona. The LAD pen has to be thin with the past 2 games. Going on the premise he is not used to day baseball and wont be his sharpest and LA has a thin , overworked oen. You have an UMP that has an over BIAS avg 11 per when he calls a game. Livan is an innings eater but usually even a good day he is allowing 3 runs. because he is a contact pitcher. Wants to throw strikes and challenge hitter s buthas so-so stuff.
Nite cap:
NFL PreSeason
Texans +5.5 even money (2units)
Basic approach here is that after last week's Bronco bloodfest to many people will see this team as being better then it really is. Tenn just isnt anything more then a bottomfeeder right now and your saying well what are the Texans then??. Now Houston is a roster full of talent and possibly now the direction to do something with it. Huge game for Kubiak obviously playing against his former employer and mentor Mike Shanahan.
Denver is always scary with the depth they show at QB and RB but Texans defense is greatily improved and they have already defeated KC and won @ StL....not so shabby IMO!
I'll take a shot with the points thinking Houston wil be crisp here as the players try to impress there new coach by playing hard for HIM in a game with some special meaning for him.
Rangers -106 (3units)
Yes , this has alot to do with the rangers avoiding a sweep. However Padilla has been effective vs oakland this year. until recently he was pitching well at home but two awful starts vs KC and LAA saw his home ERA ballon fron 3.87 to 5.01!! Haren has also been inconsistent when he travels as seen by his 3 extremely ROUGH outings in his last 5 away starts. So his road numbers dant look so good but they are in some manner skewed as well. He has been up and down vs Texas in his career and hasnt seen them since a great April start. Personally I think after being extremely lucky to win his last outing where he was shelled in Toronto the universe will even itself out and Haren will take the LOSS tonite.
Cubs +1.5 +!25 (2units) & Cubs +172 (unit)
Now this is a few angles here. First fading the Cards vs a LHP since they are 3-9 against since teh Break and scored just 29 runs in games started vs LH. Then we have Weaver on teh hill who has led his team to wins in just 3 of 10 home starts and has been terrible in his home parks this year. Chi has been tough all year on STL and even this series. No one knows anything about Walrond tonite but these are teh guys that suprise when they have zero expectations.
Under 9.5 -110 ChiC& StL (3units)
basically as I said StL just not scoring against LHP. Think it was 29 runs in the 12 games started vs LH and that included what they got off the pens. Rich Hill and Dave Williams have kept them in check the past few days. Malholm and Duke shut them down in Pitt. The bats havent donemuch to speak off the past week and less against LH. ChiC in a nice funk as well scoring once in 2 games here. Past 10 games they scored 3runs or less seven times. Rolling the dice again with poor SP!
GL
Marlins -119(2units)
Indians -114(2units)
Royals (unit) +161
Over Cle & Det 9.5 -121(2units)
Over 10 KC and Tor +104 (2units)
Phillies +136 (2units) & ARL +208 (unit)
The real stuff is coming up:
1:35 start:
Pirates +109 (2units)
Over 10 +102 Pitt & Houston (3units)
With how Houston has been playing why would you want to lay money with them on the road? Then factor in that they dont have Clemens or Pettitte on the hill. What has Hirsch shown to date to be a road fav? Chacon has at leats been decent in 2 of his 3 starts. The exception was versus Houston but he also turned out to be hurt. Pitt is a 500 team at home and Houston is 28-37 away. Ensberg and Biggio appear to again be out of the lineups. Dont get me wrong Pits 12-33 day record or 4-16 Sunday record is alarming but Houston 6-13 as small road chalk doesnt help either.
2:05 PM
Under 10 +102 Chicago and Minny(2units)
White Sox -143 (unit) avoid the sweep and fade Silva away.
Always like to gamble that an extra inning affair followed by a day game is cause for a flat game. Factor in Mike reilly behind teh dish and his usually wide zone could be very helpful in sppeding up this game. Minny only .255 away aginst LHP.
3;35 PM
Under 10.5 +!06 LAA and NYY (3units)
Right now I think NY has really struggled against LHP. You go back to Washburn and Wells in teh past week looking real sharp against us despite not pitching extremely well beforehand. You go back to the Baltimore series and we struggled mightily at home versus Loewen and Bedard. Karstens to me looked okay in Seattle a bad pitch or two and that was it. His comfortable level should be ten fold here. NYY is 23-15 under against LHP and LAA wasnt exaclty hittingbefore this series believe just 4 of the past 14 games have seen them top 5 runs.
4:05 PM
Giants -137 (2units)
Kyle Lohse has been awesome since the trade BUT lets face it all he is doing is vindicating the people who argue theNL is now the junior league. Still even with his great performances as a RED I still envision him as just a 6 inning guy and that leaves the end of the game wide open IMO. Hey SF isnt exactly shutting the door late but Matt Cain is the story here IMO>. Cain has been extremely IMPRESSIVE in 5 post Btreak starts at home. How bout 35 2/3 innings ( 7,7,7,8 2/3 asnd 6) , 25 hits , 8 runs , 9BB( 4 in the 1st start) 36 Ks and 2 Hrs allowed! Cincy still just 5-15 past 20 day starts.
Over 9 -123 LAD and Zona (3units)
Zona +110(unit) and ARL +200 (unit)
Billingsley has been real solid but the kid has struggled somewhat when he starts in the day ( but only 3 starts). BAsically he is 5 or 6 inning type starter on the road even though he went 7 strong earlier at Zona. The LAD pen has to be thin with the past 2 games. Going on the premise he is not used to day baseball and wont be his sharpest and LA has a thin , overworked oen. You have an UMP that has an over BIAS avg 11 per when he calls a game. Livan is an innings eater but usually even a good day he is allowing 3 runs. because he is a contact pitcher. Wants to throw strikes and challenge hitter s buthas so-so stuff.
Nite cap:
NFL PreSeason
Texans +5.5 even money (2units)
Basic approach here is that after last week's Bronco bloodfest to many people will see this team as being better then it really is. Tenn just isnt anything more then a bottomfeeder right now and your saying well what are the Texans then??. Now Houston is a roster full of talent and possibly now the direction to do something with it. Huge game for Kubiak obviously playing against his former employer and mentor Mike Shanahan.
Denver is always scary with the depth they show at QB and RB but Texans defense is greatily improved and they have already defeated KC and won @ StL....not so shabby IMO!
I'll take a shot with the points thinking Houston wil be crisp here as the players try to impress there new coach by playing hard for HIM in a game with some special meaning for him.
Rangers -106 (3units)
Yes , this has alot to do with the rangers avoiding a sweep. However Padilla has been effective vs oakland this year. until recently he was pitching well at home but two awful starts vs KC and LAA saw his home ERA ballon fron 3.87 to 5.01!! Haren has also been inconsistent when he travels as seen by his 3 extremely ROUGH outings in his last 5 away starts. So his road numbers dant look so good but they are in some manner skewed as well. He has been up and down vs Texas in his career and hasnt seen them since a great April start. Personally I think after being extremely lucky to win his last outing where he was shelled in Toronto the universe will even itself out and Haren will take the LOSS tonite.
Cubs +1.5 +!25 (2units) & Cubs +172 (unit)
Now this is a few angles here. First fading the Cards vs a LHP since they are 3-9 against since teh Break and scored just 29 runs in games started vs LH. Then we have Weaver on teh hill who has led his team to wins in just 3 of 10 home starts and has been terrible in his home parks this year. Chi has been tough all year on STL and even this series. No one knows anything about Walrond tonite but these are teh guys that suprise when they have zero expectations.
Under 9.5 -110 ChiC& StL (3units)
basically as I said StL just not scoring against LHP. Think it was 29 runs in the 12 games started vs LH and that included what they got off the pens. Rich Hill and Dave Williams have kept them in check the past few days. Malholm and Duke shut them down in Pitt. The bats havent donemuch to speak off the past week and less against LH. ChiC in a nice funk as well scoring once in 2 games here. Past 10 games they scored 3runs or less seven times. Rolling the dice again with poor SP!
GL
Saturday, August 26, 2006
SAT THOUGHTS
A Nice windy and rainy( just kidding) Saturday afternoon down the Jersey Shore has left me with a decent amount of time. Last nite was awesome...watching the DBacks win that game in the 15 th inning to a cap of a near perfect nite was well awesome.
YTD UPDATE: Tuesday thru FRIDAY
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.7
(5units) 5-1-1 +19.45
(3units) 8-4 +10.02
(1unit) 18-18 +1.12
Nice 18-5-1 record on the 'big' plays +65.17 and 18-18 +1.12 record on the 'small' ones.........Thats +66 units in four days most people would be estatic about that type performance over a season! Even an 18-4 NITE alone speaks for itself!
August 25th
Indians +110 (unit) Win 4-2
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit) Loss , 4-2 after 5 innings
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit) Win , Houston wins 5-1
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit) Win , Phills 4-3
Orioles -170 (unit) Win 4-0Under 10 -123
Balt-tb (5units) Win , 4-0
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit) Win , Wash 7-6
Marlins -118 (unit) Win 6-5 , -1.5 runs +183(unit)loss. won 6-5 , First 5 INN -116 (unit)Win , lead 6-5 after 5 innings
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit) Win , 2-0 after 5 innings
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units) Win , NYG 13-7
Eagles -3-105 (3units) Win , PHI 16-7
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit) Win , Min 30-7
Rangers +110 (unit) loss 9-3(liked the over too!!)
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit) loss , 5-4
Rockies -151 (5units) Won 13-5
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) Won 9-7, ARL +208 (unit) won 9-7 & over 9 -125(3units) Won
Giants -108 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit) won , 2-0 after 5 innings
FRI RECAP: 18-4 +37.65
(7unit) 1-0 (+7.7)
(5unit) 2-0 (+10.)
(3unit) 4-0 (+12.)
(1unit) 11-4 (+7.95)
Early starts:
Braves -219 (2units)
Smoltz has been extremely tough at home and compared toother hoime startsvs WASH he is cheap here. Astacio really struggling on the road.
Would be a 3 unit play if the chalk wasnt so high
Cubs +1.5 runs +107 (unit)
Worth a shot. STL struggles against LH lately and Hill has to turn in a solid away start sooner or later. Carpenter for as good as he has been at home still just 8-4 in 12 starts.
Working on the 4 PM starts!
4:05 PM
Giants -111(3units) & Over 8.5 -116 (5units)
Lets see some over trends for you :
Cincy 22-14 OVER vs LHP
SFG 7-3 OVER Last 10 Day games
Arroyo 3-4 4.71 DAy
Lowry 1-3 5.54 Day ( 5 of 6 starts over)
Wind 0-10 MPH @ SF the over is 13-2(supposedly no wind right now)
SFG 28-13 OVER day
Laz Diaz 17-9 UNDER but because IMO the pens have excelled in his games just 1.67 runs allowed by them in his games and 1.52 runs in the 7th thru 9th innings when he calls a game. A big reason why his runs per is just 8.11 per.
Riding the SFG cause IMO they have the better SP going now. Lowry stinks in the day but has gone 8 1/3 , 9 and 9 in three of his past 4. Cincy just 22-31 in day games but has dropped 14 of there last 19 starts. Dont expect a strong performance as recent starts from Lowry but I think he gets some run support here to work with.
Small adds:
Over 5.5 +103 LAA and NYY First 5 Inn(unit)
LAA -103 (unit)
Over 5 +106 Toronto First 5 Inn (unit)
4:35 PM
Under 9 +101 Baltimore and TB(3units)
Really not going to try and explain this. Just look at my post from yesterday concerning the Rays lack of offense on the road and see that Baldelli looks doubtful. The biggest concern is that for some reason Bedard has been shitty twice at Camden vs TB as compared to the other near gems he has thrown. Shields has strung together a few solid outings and is ahead of Hammel at this point and he did nicely yesterday.
6PM's and NFL
Bills -3-120 9unit)
Chargers -3.5 -104 (unit)
Jags -3.5 -106 (3units)
Rams +3 -108 (3units)
Was thinking hard about FLA but passing on it.
Tonite:
Rangers -111 (5units)
Personally I feel that you get TEX real cheap here . In the past Blanton has been okay at Arlington but still usually around +130 or +140. The guys has greatly improved on teh road but still I dont trust him much and he doesnt give you more then 6 innings most nites...which can be key with Houston Street OUT depleting the pen. Eaton deoesnt have a large body of work to go off but he has been fairly decent IMO. Had to jump on this as the line got pounded down. Always a coin flip when these 2 play and I get to gamble with the home team for even money .
White Sox+129 (2units)
Under 9 DET & CLE -103( 2units)
Indians even(2units)
Under 9.5 Sea & Bos +105(unit)
A Nice windy and rainy( just kidding) Saturday afternoon down the Jersey Shore has left me with a decent amount of time. Last nite was awesome...watching the DBacks win that game in the 15 th inning to a cap of a near perfect nite was well awesome.
YTD UPDATE: Tuesday thru FRIDAY
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.7
(5units) 5-1-1 +19.45
(3units) 8-4 +10.02
(1unit) 18-18 +1.12
Nice 18-5-1 record on the 'big' plays +65.17 and 18-18 +1.12 record on the 'small' ones.........Thats +66 units in four days most people would be estatic about that type performance over a season! Even an 18-4 NITE alone speaks for itself!
August 25th
Indians +110 (unit) Win 4-2
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit) Loss , 4-2 after 5 innings
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit) Win , Houston wins 5-1
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit) Win , Phills 4-3
Orioles -170 (unit) Win 4-0Under 10 -123
Balt-tb (5units) Win , 4-0
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit) Win , Wash 7-6
Marlins -118 (unit) Win 6-5 , -1.5 runs +183(unit)loss. won 6-5 , First 5 INN -116 (unit)Win , lead 6-5 after 5 innings
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit) Win , 2-0 after 5 innings
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units) Win , NYG 13-7
Eagles -3-105 (3units) Win , PHI 16-7
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit) Win , Min 30-7
Rangers +110 (unit) loss 9-3(liked the over too!!)
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit) loss , 5-4
Rockies -151 (5units) Won 13-5
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) Won 9-7, ARL +208 (unit) won 9-7 & over 9 -125(3units) Won
Giants -108 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit) won , 2-0 after 5 innings
FRI RECAP: 18-4 +37.65
(7unit) 1-0 (+7.7)
(5unit) 2-0 (+10.)
(3unit) 4-0 (+12.)
(1unit) 11-4 (+7.95)
Early starts:
Braves -219 (2units)
Smoltz has been extremely tough at home and compared toother hoime startsvs WASH he is cheap here. Astacio really struggling on the road.
Would be a 3 unit play if the chalk wasnt so high
Cubs +1.5 runs +107 (unit)
Worth a shot. STL struggles against LH lately and Hill has to turn in a solid away start sooner or later. Carpenter for as good as he has been at home still just 8-4 in 12 starts.
Working on the 4 PM starts!
4:05 PM
Giants -111(3units) & Over 8.5 -116 (5units)
Lets see some over trends for you :
Cincy 22-14 OVER vs LHP
SFG 7-3 OVER Last 10 Day games
Arroyo 3-4 4.71 DAy
Lowry 1-3 5.54 Day ( 5 of 6 starts over)
Wind 0-10 MPH @ SF the over is 13-2(supposedly no wind right now)
SFG 28-13 OVER day
Laz Diaz 17-9 UNDER but because IMO the pens have excelled in his games just 1.67 runs allowed by them in his games and 1.52 runs in the 7th thru 9th innings when he calls a game. A big reason why his runs per is just 8.11 per.
Riding the SFG cause IMO they have the better SP going now. Lowry stinks in the day but has gone 8 1/3 , 9 and 9 in three of his past 4. Cincy just 22-31 in day games but has dropped 14 of there last 19 starts. Dont expect a strong performance as recent starts from Lowry but I think he gets some run support here to work with.
Small adds:
Over 5.5 +103 LAA and NYY First 5 Inn(unit)
LAA -103 (unit)
Over 5 +106 Toronto First 5 Inn (unit)
4:35 PM
Under 9 +101 Baltimore and TB(3units)
Really not going to try and explain this. Just look at my post from yesterday concerning the Rays lack of offense on the road and see that Baldelli looks doubtful. The biggest concern is that for some reason Bedard has been shitty twice at Camden vs TB as compared to the other near gems he has thrown. Shields has strung together a few solid outings and is ahead of Hammel at this point and he did nicely yesterday.
6PM's and NFL
Bills -3-120 9unit)
Chargers -3.5 -104 (unit)
Jags -3.5 -106 (3units)
Rams +3 -108 (3units)
Was thinking hard about FLA but passing on it.
Tonite:
Rangers -111 (5units)
Personally I feel that you get TEX real cheap here . In the past Blanton has been okay at Arlington but still usually around +130 or +140. The guys has greatly improved on teh road but still I dont trust him much and he doesnt give you more then 6 innings most nites...which can be key with Houston Street OUT depleting the pen. Eaton deoesnt have a large body of work to go off but he has been fairly decent IMO. Had to jump on this as the line got pounded down. Always a coin flip when these 2 play and I get to gamble with the home team for even money .
White Sox+129 (2units)
Under 9 DET & CLE -103( 2units)
Indians even(2units)
Under 9.5 Sea & Bos +105(unit)
YTD UPDATE: Tuesday thru FRIDAY
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.5
(5units) 5-1-1 +19.45
(3units) 8-4 +10.02
(1unit) 18-18 +1.12
The RECAP of the past days up until FRIDAY :
August 25th
Indians +110 (unit) Win 4-2
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit) Loss , 4-2 after 5 innings
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit) Win , Houston wins 5-1
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit) Win , Phills 4-3
Orioles -170 (unit) Win 4-0
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units) Win , 4-0
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit) Win , Wash 7-6
Marlins -118 (unit) Win 6-5 , -1.5 runs +183(unit)loss. won 6-5 , First 5 INN -116 (unit)Win , lead 6-5 after 5 innings
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit) Win , 2-0 after 5 innings
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units) Win , NYG 13-7
Eagles -3-105 (3units) Win , PHI 16-7
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit) Win , Min 30-7
Rangers +110 (unit) loss 9-3(liked the over too!!)
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit) loss , 5-4
Rockies -151 (5units) Won 13-5
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) Won 9-7, ARL +208 (unit) won 9-7 & over 9 -125(3units)Won
Giants -108 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit) won , 2-0 after 5 innings
RECAP:
(7unit) 1-0 (+7.7)
(5unit) 2-0 (+10.)
(3unit) 4-0 (+12.)
(1unit) 11-4 (+7.95)
Thursday RECAP (+3.32 units)
(7unit) 2-0 (+14.0)
(5unit) XXXXXXX
(3unit) 1-3 (-7.98)
(1unit) 3-5 (-2.70)
WED RECAP (-7.70)
5 units( 1-1 -0.55)
3units ( 0-1 -3.)
1unit ( 1-5 -4.15)
TUESDAY RECAP(+33.02)
7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.5
(5units) 5-1-1 +19.45
(3units) 8-4 +10.02
(1unit) 18-18 +1.12
The RECAP of the past days up until FRIDAY :
August 25th
Indians +110 (unit) Win 4-2
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit) Loss , 4-2 after 5 innings
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit) Win , Houston wins 5-1
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit) Win , Phills 4-3
Orioles -170 (unit) Win 4-0
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units) Win , 4-0
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit) Win , Wash 7-6
Marlins -118 (unit) Win 6-5 , -1.5 runs +183(unit)loss. won 6-5 , First 5 INN -116 (unit)Win , lead 6-5 after 5 innings
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit) Win , 2-0 after 5 innings
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units) Win , NYG 13-7
Eagles -3-105 (3units) Win , PHI 16-7
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit) Win , Min 30-7
Rangers +110 (unit) loss 9-3(liked the over too!!)
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit) loss , 5-4
Rockies -151 (5units) Won 13-5
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) Won 9-7, ARL +208 (unit) won 9-7 & over 9 -125(3units)Won
Giants -108 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit) won , 2-0 after 5 innings
RECAP:
(7unit) 1-0 (+7.7)
(5unit) 2-0 (+10.)
(3unit) 4-0 (+12.)
(1unit) 11-4 (+7.95)
Thursday RECAP (+3.32 units)
(7unit) 2-0 (+14.0)
(5unit) XXXXXXX
(3unit) 1-3 (-7.98)
(1unit) 3-5 (-2.70)
WED RECAP (-7.70)
5 units( 1-1 -0.55)
3units ( 0-1 -3.)
1unit ( 1-5 -4.15)
TUESDAY RECAP(+33.02)
7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )
Friday, August 25, 2006
Friday's Thoughts
At first glance I didnt see all that much I liked. Now a few hours deep and I am uncovering some things I do see a valueable. So going to try and do best to update you guys as to what I am thinking. Wont try and fnalize till half hour before start times. Just like that little extra time to adjust my unit sizes. Last 2 days I have had such little free time to 'cap' games and post its been extremely detrimental to my performance. If you asked me my fav plays of the past 2 days I would have said probably the only 4 winners I picked...Hous (wed afternoon) , Pitt and Under 10 NYM last nite along with the Yanks under. I have done a poor job spreading my units around(and "gamnling on marginal ideas') but I guess the good news is after an amazing Tuesday worst case is I gave back a few 'units'. It happens , rather it be because of my poor judgement rather then poor capping. I NEED to recap and update the past 2 days...wont happen till later on!
Here we go:
Under 10-123 Orioles and TB (5 units)
Orioles -170(unit)
This has to look like a strange play to some. Cabrera and Hammel and you want to play an Under? Well my first comment is I truly have no idea what to expect out of Hammel. I know he is a solid prospect who made a couple starts in April , one against BALT his ML debut where he was shelled. Hopely that fuels him here. He was sent down and posted average AAA numbers but a very solid BBto K ratio and K/per 9 inning ratio. Really cant see if he progressed as the yr went on.
Tist has me excited since Balt last 4 games really not hitting. It's understandable that when Tor is trying to avoid a sweep and they send out HAlladay that he shuts down there lineup . Its understandable Silva gets smacked around and the pen keeps BALT in check. Can anyone explain they lack of offense the past 2 games against strong prospects Matt Garza and Boof Boonser?? I mean 3 runs in 2 games at home....that leaves a great deal of hope for me with young Hammel.
Then we have TB, can someone explain to me when there PEN got so solid?? That pen did a wonderful job against TEXAS past 4 days. The key is the Devil Rays catastrophic collapse on the road dropping 15 of there last 16 all since the BREAK!. That one win a 19-7 trouncing of my Yanks. Now the sick part is 19 runs that day and 30 runs total the other 15 games. The MATH genius that I am realizes that 2 runs per but worse is the startling consistency they have shown.
Runs per game breakdown
@ Sea 4 ,1,0
@ Oak 2,3,1
@NYY 2,19, 0
@Minn 4,2,1,3
@LAA 5,2,0
Now Cabrera comes in off his best start of the year and lets face it we know Daniel Cabrera himself is his own worst enemy. Why? Simple command and control issues!! Last start vs TB he had 10 K's but 9 BB's! He has always been decent against TB in his career. This new TB lineup is real thin and YOUNG. Gomes is probably OUT and Branyan just traded to SD. We look okay with Baldelli , Upton and Crawford but 4 thru 9 is interesting.....Norton , Navarro , Lee , Cantu (slumping @ 244), Hollins and the dude with a Z -last name I cant remember right now. Balts pen also was fairly solid in the Minn series but here 's to hoping Cabrera can give us 7 tonite! Unfortunately dont have any UMPIRE INFO!
Rockies -151 (5units )
Again am I crazy? Colorado who has looked like ass dropping all those road games. Here's what I realized. Jeff Francis has quietly been awesome at Coors this season. You look and see 2.96 ERA at home but a 1.00 WHIP and only 46 hits in 70 innings!!! Damn! The scary part is he really buckled down after his 1st two poor starts in April winning 7 of the past 9 there and after the shaky start vs Texas. Past four at home 2 runs in 7 2/3 inn, 2 er (4runs ) in 7 inn(vs COL), complete game shutout and 5 inning 1hit no run performance!! Thompson does own 2 solid 6 inn starts versus COL thi syr allowing 3 runs but his road numbers arent so good. He was solid at Coors but his other starts were all 5 innings and one was 4 innings. A 1.73 WHIP and 5.88 ERA isnt impressing anyone.
SD is 13-15 vs LHP but really struggling of late verus them . SD won 1-0 vs Hendrickson and lost 5-3 vs Lowry on the recent homestand . Since the bvreak the only LHP they have hit wel is Hendrickson in Dodger LAnd were he has been awful!! This is all about SP for me as both have solid pens and soft offenses. Colorado has a significant edge with Francis who had his string of 6 straight starts with 7 + innings snapped in NY due to a bad 6th inning. LAD is also just 27-35 away this season and 1-5 in Zona .
7PM starts:
Indians +110 (unit)
-Based on what I see as a slumping Tiger lineup vs LHP and Sowers excellent pitching at home.
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit)
-see Bondermans away splits and Sowers starts at home since his ML debut.
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit)
-Two SP who dont get much run support. Clemens is really tough on Pitt dont look at the SEPT 05 start he was dead tired and Santos has his moments where he gives you 5 or 6 solid innings...lets face it Houston isnt hitting much lately.
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit)
- Wolf was showing improvement till his poor outing last time out BUT owns good numbers vs NY. Also NY not hitting LH that well lately. Bannister was solid early in the season and has had more then enough time to get bakc in a groove in the minors. Cool damp nite as well.
Orioles -170 (unit)
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units)
-see earlier comments
7:35 starts:
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit)
Really following a trend where when WASH opposes a LH starter recently the game is extremely high scoring. Ortiz has been rocked in 4 career starts vs ATL of 6 but the two solid ones have been at ATL which is cause for concern. James has been solid but a tad inconsistent and I am hoping that the second time around WASH gets better AB's off him and really both pens are inconsistent as well. The situation plays out where WASH hits better off LH's and ATL against RH's...
Marlins -118 (unit) , -1.5 runs +183(unit) , First 5 INN -116 (unit)
Basically both teams playing well of late but I am not taking much of the Brew Crew's streak...COL , HOU and PITT can the BATS get any colder. Fla can hit and there SP Bush realy struggles on the road in his career. Nolasco has been extremely soldi when he is not facing the METS or pitching during the day. Fading a 23-37 road team against a 500 home club who has the better SP.
8PM's
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit)
Suppan has been real solid at home this year and poor away which is a change for him. Last year he wa sreal solid against CHI but this yr times have changed. Mateo has impressed me with his early starts and was able to log 7 innings last time out. Truth is both lineups very relent on the long ball for runs right now and hoping the SP are strong first two trips thru the order.
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units)
Jumped the gun earlier thinking this would never go down . Now that it has I am scared and curious as to why. NYG starter's for 3 quarters should cause hell but maybe its the NYJ preseason mystic Or the fact the jets probably really take this game much more serious.
Eagles -3-105 (3units)
Thinking they will continue to impress me.
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit)
8:30 Starts
Rangers +110 (unit)
- Oakland only 6-7 against Texas which isnt very good when you see there record in divisional games. Zito IMO isnt that sharp lately and has really struggled more then not past 10 starts vs Texas especally in Texas. Just love the RH bats the Rangers can throw at you. The pen is weaker in Oakland now as well.
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit)
Like the fact that despite the over being 5-1 in Chicago and this matchup going over last meeting they still managed to drop the total a 1/2 run. Can Radke 'fool' CHI in consecutive starts? Are both lineups heating up like I think they are? IS JAvy going to continue his career long struggle vs Minny? many questions to be answered worth a roll of the dice IMO...
9PM starts
Rockies -151 (5units)
-see earlier comments
9:40 starts
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) , ARL +208 (unit) and over 9 -125(3units)
First why the over cause it almost doesnt make sense. LAD scored 4 times in SD and Vargas is pitching well of late. Except he get srun support and is inconsitent at home see a 15-6 over record. Then we have MAddux who just dont pitch well in Zona or versus Zona.
Why the play? LAD is 1-8 last 9 in Zona and 6-14 Last 20 versus them. Maddux is 1-9 in his career vs them and his team is just 2-9 last 10 starts vs them(0-5 near 6 ERA @ BOP/Chase). Simply put Maddux had some good starts after his trade but last outing wasnt so good and his away splits are medicore.LAD offense looking
Last...
Giants -108 (3units)
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit)
That;s it and Good nite
At first glance I didnt see all that much I liked. Now a few hours deep and I am uncovering some things I do see a valueable. So going to try and do best to update you guys as to what I am thinking. Wont try and fnalize till half hour before start times. Just like that little extra time to adjust my unit sizes. Last 2 days I have had such little free time to 'cap' games and post its been extremely detrimental to my performance. If you asked me my fav plays of the past 2 days I would have said probably the only 4 winners I picked...Hous (wed afternoon) , Pitt and Under 10 NYM last nite along with the Yanks under. I have done a poor job spreading my units around(and "gamnling on marginal ideas') but I guess the good news is after an amazing Tuesday worst case is I gave back a few 'units'. It happens , rather it be because of my poor judgement rather then poor capping. I NEED to recap and update the past 2 days...wont happen till later on!
Here we go:
Under 10-123 Orioles and TB (5 units)
Orioles -170(unit)
This has to look like a strange play to some. Cabrera and Hammel and you want to play an Under? Well my first comment is I truly have no idea what to expect out of Hammel. I know he is a solid prospect who made a couple starts in April , one against BALT his ML debut where he was shelled. Hopely that fuels him here. He was sent down and posted average AAA numbers but a very solid BBto K ratio and K/per 9 inning ratio. Really cant see if he progressed as the yr went on.
Tist has me excited since Balt last 4 games really not hitting. It's understandable that when Tor is trying to avoid a sweep and they send out HAlladay that he shuts down there lineup . Its understandable Silva gets smacked around and the pen keeps BALT in check. Can anyone explain they lack of offense the past 2 games against strong prospects Matt Garza and Boof Boonser?? I mean 3 runs in 2 games at home....that leaves a great deal of hope for me with young Hammel.
Then we have TB, can someone explain to me when there PEN got so solid?? That pen did a wonderful job against TEXAS past 4 days. The key is the Devil Rays catastrophic collapse on the road dropping 15 of there last 16 all since the BREAK!. That one win a 19-7 trouncing of my Yanks. Now the sick part is 19 runs that day and 30 runs total the other 15 games. The MATH genius that I am realizes that 2 runs per but worse is the startling consistency they have shown.
Runs per game breakdown
@ Sea 4 ,1,0
@ Oak 2,3,1
@NYY 2,19, 0
@Minn 4,2,1,3
@LAA 5,2,0
Now Cabrera comes in off his best start of the year and lets face it we know Daniel Cabrera himself is his own worst enemy. Why? Simple command and control issues!! Last start vs TB he had 10 K's but 9 BB's! He has always been decent against TB in his career. This new TB lineup is real thin and YOUNG. Gomes is probably OUT and Branyan just traded to SD. We look okay with Baldelli , Upton and Crawford but 4 thru 9 is interesting.....Norton , Navarro , Lee , Cantu (slumping @ 244), Hollins and the dude with a Z -last name I cant remember right now. Balts pen also was fairly solid in the Minn series but here 's to hoping Cabrera can give us 7 tonite! Unfortunately dont have any UMPIRE INFO!
Rockies -151 (5units )
Again am I crazy? Colorado who has looked like ass dropping all those road games. Here's what I realized. Jeff Francis has quietly been awesome at Coors this season. You look and see 2.96 ERA at home but a 1.00 WHIP and only 46 hits in 70 innings!!! Damn! The scary part is he really buckled down after his 1st two poor starts in April winning 7 of the past 9 there and after the shaky start vs Texas. Past four at home 2 runs in 7 2/3 inn, 2 er (4runs ) in 7 inn(vs COL), complete game shutout and 5 inning 1hit no run performance!! Thompson does own 2 solid 6 inn starts versus COL thi syr allowing 3 runs but his road numbers arent so good. He was solid at Coors but his other starts were all 5 innings and one was 4 innings. A 1.73 WHIP and 5.88 ERA isnt impressing anyone.
SD is 13-15 vs LHP but really struggling of late verus them . SD won 1-0 vs Hendrickson and lost 5-3 vs Lowry on the recent homestand . Since the bvreak the only LHP they have hit wel is Hendrickson in Dodger LAnd were he has been awful!! This is all about SP for me as both have solid pens and soft offenses. Colorado has a significant edge with Francis who had his string of 6 straight starts with 7 + innings snapped in NY due to a bad 6th inning. LAD is also just 27-35 away this season and 1-5 in Zona .
7PM starts:
Indians +110 (unit)
-Based on what I see as a slumping Tiger lineup vs LHP and Sowers excellent pitching at home.
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit)
-see Bondermans away splits and Sowers starts at home since his ML debut.
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit)
-Two SP who dont get much run support. Clemens is really tough on Pitt dont look at the SEPT 05 start he was dead tired and Santos has his moments where he gives you 5 or 6 solid innings...lets face it Houston isnt hitting much lately.
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit)
- Wolf was showing improvement till his poor outing last time out BUT owns good numbers vs NY. Also NY not hitting LH that well lately. Bannister was solid early in the season and has had more then enough time to get bakc in a groove in the minors. Cool damp nite as well.
Orioles -170 (unit)
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units)
-see earlier comments
7:35 starts:
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit)
Really following a trend where when WASH opposes a LH starter recently the game is extremely high scoring. Ortiz has been rocked in 4 career starts vs ATL of 6 but the two solid ones have been at ATL which is cause for concern. James has been solid but a tad inconsistent and I am hoping that the second time around WASH gets better AB's off him and really both pens are inconsistent as well. The situation plays out where WASH hits better off LH's and ATL against RH's...
Marlins -118 (unit) , -1.5 runs +183(unit) , First 5 INN -116 (unit)
Basically both teams playing well of late but I am not taking much of the Brew Crew's streak...COL , HOU and PITT can the BATS get any colder. Fla can hit and there SP Bush realy struggles on the road in his career. Nolasco has been extremely soldi when he is not facing the METS or pitching during the day. Fading a 23-37 road team against a 500 home club who has the better SP.
8PM's
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit)
Suppan has been real solid at home this year and poor away which is a change for him. Last year he wa sreal solid against CHI but this yr times have changed. Mateo has impressed me with his early starts and was able to log 7 innings last time out. Truth is both lineups very relent on the long ball for runs right now and hoping the SP are strong first two trips thru the order.
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units)
Jumped the gun earlier thinking this would never go down . Now that it has I am scared and curious as to why. NYG starter's for 3 quarters should cause hell but maybe its the NYJ preseason mystic Or the fact the jets probably really take this game much more serious.
Eagles -3-105 (3units)
Thinking they will continue to impress me.
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit)
8:30 Starts
Rangers +110 (unit)
- Oakland only 6-7 against Texas which isnt very good when you see there record in divisional games. Zito IMO isnt that sharp lately and has really struggled more then not past 10 starts vs Texas especally in Texas. Just love the RH bats the Rangers can throw at you. The pen is weaker in Oakland now as well.
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit)
Like the fact that despite the over being 5-1 in Chicago and this matchup going over last meeting they still managed to drop the total a 1/2 run. Can Radke 'fool' CHI in consecutive starts? Are both lineups heating up like I think they are? IS JAvy going to continue his career long struggle vs Minny? many questions to be answered worth a roll of the dice IMO...
9PM starts
Rockies -151 (5units)
-see earlier comments
9:40 starts
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) , ARL +208 (unit) and over 9 -125(3units)
First why the over cause it almost doesnt make sense. LAD scored 4 times in SD and Vargas is pitching well of late. Except he get srun support and is inconsitent at home see a 15-6 over record. Then we have MAddux who just dont pitch well in Zona or versus Zona.
Why the play? LAD is 1-8 last 9 in Zona and 6-14 Last 20 versus them. Maddux is 1-9 in his career vs them and his team is just 2-9 last 10 starts vs them(0-5 near 6 ERA @ BOP/Chase). Simply put Maddux had some good starts after his trade but last outing wasnt so good and his away splits are medicore.LAD offense looking
Last...
Giants -108 (3units)
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit)
That;s it and Good nite
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Thursday Thoughts
Wow! What a disaster last nite was. Everything that could go wrong , did! Honestly I feel the need to apology cause I think with limited time I rushed my decisions and it showed. You can see early on my AL leans all hit and would have paid nicely. That's life. There is ALOT of work that goes on behind this and even I msut remind myself of that. Again sorry for that fiasco!
I wil recap when I have a moment. Have to run out and will post the nite slate around 4 or 5 PM. Will be heading to the Mets game @ Shea tonite(leaning heavy on that under 10 and StL)
Day Games
Tigers -116 (1unit)
What a tough matchup and rematch from 7 /18 when Garland won 7-1 thanks to Robertson falling apart in the 6th and7th innings. It's probably a definite Thome will miss this one. What I see is a White Sox team that just isnt hitting LHP very well of late. Robertson has been consistent al year and especially at home. Garland has been up and down but real solid past 2 outings which is a concern. Also Garland has led Chitown to wins in all 8 of his day starts despit a high (near 6 ) ERA! At first glance I was thinking the under but it dropped from 9.5 to 9 and last meeting it was 10 Und -120. So the value has somewhat ben taken out. Also as I said Garland poor day splits means this could very easily be a 5-4 game.
Rockies +122(1unit)
I am asking myself why back a team who has dropped 9 of 10 away and 17 of 22 while scoring 3 runs or less in 15 of them. Its about Josh Fogg , who would have thunk that? Fogg as pitrched solid ball vs MILW in his career including a 1-0 defeat at Coors this year and has pitched solid at Miller Park. Both offenses are strugling just Colorado has taken it to a new level. Ohka is somewhat inconsistent but usely solid at home. Tough game just think COL really needs this one . That doesnt mean they will win but its a huge game for them right now. Really like the UNDER 8.5 +104 as well but passed.
Cubbies -103 (1unit)
Zambrano throwing the ball well past few and really was strong against Philly last year 17 innings 1 run. Lets be honest CHI has sent out Rich Hill, Ryan O'Maley and Angel Guzman all talented youngsters but nothing in the realmof Zambrano. HAmels has been extremely strong past 5 starts but he has faltered in day starts and dropped 3 of away for his Phils. Chicago facing a LHP is a huge concern but I look for Ramirez and Murton to be the key here. Suprisingly I think the over 7.5 -105 looks interesting. First you have questionable pens. Second youhave Hamels getting tremndous run support leading to a 11-4 over record and Zambrano hasnt been his sharpest in day games.
Act II: Night Games
Wow , agin short on time and I was a big puss and missed some ez plays...Phills and Cubs over plus I was lovin Cubbies but sacred.
Pirates -115 (7units) & Over 9 -116 (unit)
For some reason I really like Pitt here. Could it be the 32-30 home record or Houston 26-36 away record? The scary part of this play is the fact Houston is something liek 16-10 vs LH and Pitt 8-33 , yes Pitt is 8-33 vs LHP!!! Worse they lost 9 straight at home when a LH started and are just 4-14 at home vs LHP. Good news for the over though they hit 312 at home vs LH and the over is 11-6-1 against LH's at home. There lineup is filled with RHB who hit LH well NAdy 346 , Sanchez 471 , J.Wilson 302 , Bay 313 and Paulino 341. Wandy Rodriguez justseems lost right now and didnt do anything in his call iup start from AAA to change my opinion. The good news is he has really struggled against RHB's this year. Well Hou 212 L10 against LH and Pitt 320. Hopefully Pitt's momentum carries over from winning past 2 down in ATL!
Under 10 -113 StL and NYM (7units) & StL +107(3units)
The scary part is STL hits 296 on the road vs LHP and is facing journeyman DAve Williams. Looking deeper in 5 starts against LH since the Break the Cards are 0-5 worse is they have been shutout twice , scored 1,3,and 4 in the others. Williams was decent in his Met debut vs the weak hitting Rockies and went 5 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs but they had just 1 thru 5 innings. Marquis is so unpredicatble its ridiculous to try BUT he is either real solid or awful not much in bewteen. MArquis has been pretty good past 2 times out but has struggled allowing 4hrs of just 6 hits. BAck in MAy Marquis was real solid against NY going 7 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs. Last year he was excellent vs NYM in two starts, 15 INN 11H 4r 3er. Marquis a native Staten Islander is probably always extremely focused when facing hsi hometown club. Williams actually has faced StL twice this season and four times last year.
Dave Williams (R) Previous Starts vs. St. Louis where 6 inn 2er , 6 inn 3er (twice) and 6 inn 5run. This yr rocked at STL 6runs in 3 INN but rebounded with 6 2/3 and 2 runs. The starts he has made in his home parks this yr have been real solid.
Ed Rapuano behind the dish 17-10 Under and 8.50 runs per!! Also small home favs (under 140) are 6-18 when he calls the game.
Really no opinion on SF and Cincy. Milton has been much better away as a RED and Hennessey falls into the same category.
AL
Los Angeles Angels -138(unit)
Manny should be OUT here. Beckett has really struggled on the road nad had no command last time out. Jered Weaver has delivered more then promised and looking for some revenge after Boston won against him.
Yankees -155 (3units)
Scary ROAD Chalk. Randy has led NY to wins in his last 4 starts , L5 away and 8 of 9 away. He lost a 3-2 gem earlier to Meche and went 8 strong. Last year he pitched well in 2 starts vs Sea allowing 3 runs in 15 innings (one start at Safeco). he is 94-37 lifetime in AUGUST with 16 shutouts .
Washburn has been real solid vs NY but this yr LHB are really a concern for him. The new Yankee lineup is very LH heavy and that 306 BAA and 1.67 WHIP could spell trouble. Seattle only 254 against LH and NY 283 but ARod might sit again. NY is 13-7 away vs LHP. Basically Sea is in a major funk and NY is on fire. NYY 16-7 L23 meetings.
Under 9 -109 NYY and Sea(3units)
Both SP with success against there opponents. Jeff Nelson behind the dish is 17-8 under with 9.15 per game. Silly stat of the day Sea 25-9 under on Thursdays prev 34 games.
Royals +163 (unit)
Redman seems to be soldi when he faces Cleveland and Sabathis seems to struggle at KAuffman Stadium. KC is hitting LH much better recently then Cleveland. Lets see if they can make up for the fiasco yesterday.
Over 9 -111 Texas and TB (3units)& Over 5 -115 First 5 INN (unit)
Leaned on BALT , Under KC
Pre Season NFL
Carolina -4.5 -108 (unit)
GL
Wow! What a disaster last nite was. Everything that could go wrong , did! Honestly I feel the need to apology cause I think with limited time I rushed my decisions and it showed. You can see early on my AL leans all hit and would have paid nicely. That's life. There is ALOT of work that goes on behind this and even I msut remind myself of that. Again sorry for that fiasco!
I wil recap when I have a moment. Have to run out and will post the nite slate around 4 or 5 PM. Will be heading to the Mets game @ Shea tonite(leaning heavy on that under 10 and StL)
Day Games
Tigers -116 (1unit)
What a tough matchup and rematch from 7 /18 when Garland won 7-1 thanks to Robertson falling apart in the 6th and7th innings. It's probably a definite Thome will miss this one. What I see is a White Sox team that just isnt hitting LHP very well of late. Robertson has been consistent al year and especially at home. Garland has been up and down but real solid past 2 outings which is a concern. Also Garland has led Chitown to wins in all 8 of his day starts despit a high (near 6 ) ERA! At first glance I was thinking the under but it dropped from 9.5 to 9 and last meeting it was 10 Und -120. So the value has somewhat ben taken out. Also as I said Garland poor day splits means this could very easily be a 5-4 game.
Rockies +122(1unit)
I am asking myself why back a team who has dropped 9 of 10 away and 17 of 22 while scoring 3 runs or less in 15 of them. Its about Josh Fogg , who would have thunk that? Fogg as pitrched solid ball vs MILW in his career including a 1-0 defeat at Coors this year and has pitched solid at Miller Park. Both offenses are strugling just Colorado has taken it to a new level. Ohka is somewhat inconsistent but usely solid at home. Tough game just think COL really needs this one . That doesnt mean they will win but its a huge game for them right now. Really like the UNDER 8.5 +104 as well but passed.
Cubbies -103 (1unit)
Zambrano throwing the ball well past few and really was strong against Philly last year 17 innings 1 run. Lets be honest CHI has sent out Rich Hill, Ryan O'Maley and Angel Guzman all talented youngsters but nothing in the realmof Zambrano. HAmels has been extremely strong past 5 starts but he has faltered in day starts and dropped 3 of away for his Phils. Chicago facing a LHP is a huge concern but I look for Ramirez and Murton to be the key here. Suprisingly I think the over 7.5 -105 looks interesting. First you have questionable pens. Second youhave Hamels getting tremndous run support leading to a 11-4 over record and Zambrano hasnt been his sharpest in day games.
Act II: Night Games
Wow , agin short on time and I was a big puss and missed some ez plays...Phills and Cubs over plus I was lovin Cubbies but sacred.
Pirates -115 (7units) & Over 9 -116 (unit)
For some reason I really like Pitt here. Could it be the 32-30 home record or Houston 26-36 away record? The scary part of this play is the fact Houston is something liek 16-10 vs LH and Pitt 8-33 , yes Pitt is 8-33 vs LHP!!! Worse they lost 9 straight at home when a LH started and are just 4-14 at home vs LHP. Good news for the over though they hit 312 at home vs LH and the over is 11-6-1 against LH's at home. There lineup is filled with RHB who hit LH well NAdy 346 , Sanchez 471 , J.Wilson 302 , Bay 313 and Paulino 341. Wandy Rodriguez justseems lost right now and didnt do anything in his call iup start from AAA to change my opinion. The good news is he has really struggled against RHB's this year. Well Hou 212 L10 against LH and Pitt 320. Hopefully Pitt's momentum carries over from winning past 2 down in ATL!
Under 10 -113 StL and NYM (7units) & StL +107(3units)
The scary part is STL hits 296 on the road vs LHP and is facing journeyman DAve Williams. Looking deeper in 5 starts against LH since the Break the Cards are 0-5 worse is they have been shutout twice , scored 1,3,and 4 in the others. Williams was decent in his Met debut vs the weak hitting Rockies and went 5 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs but they had just 1 thru 5 innings. Marquis is so unpredicatble its ridiculous to try BUT he is either real solid or awful not much in bewteen. MArquis has been pretty good past 2 times out but has struggled allowing 4hrs of just 6 hits. BAck in MAy Marquis was real solid against NY going 7 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs. Last year he was excellent vs NYM in two starts, 15 INN 11H 4r 3er. Marquis a native Staten Islander is probably always extremely focused when facing hsi hometown club. Williams actually has faced StL twice this season and four times last year.
Dave Williams (R) Previous Starts vs. St. Louis where 6 inn 2er , 6 inn 3er (twice) and 6 inn 5run. This yr rocked at STL 6runs in 3 INN but rebounded with 6 2/3 and 2 runs. The starts he has made in his home parks this yr have been real solid.
Ed Rapuano behind the dish 17-10 Under and 8.50 runs per!! Also small home favs (under 140) are 6-18 when he calls the game.
Really no opinion on SF and Cincy. Milton has been much better away as a RED and Hennessey falls into the same category.
AL
Los Angeles Angels -138(unit)
Manny should be OUT here. Beckett has really struggled on the road nad had no command last time out. Jered Weaver has delivered more then promised and looking for some revenge after Boston won against him.
Yankees -155 (3units)
Scary ROAD Chalk. Randy has led NY to wins in his last 4 starts , L5 away and 8 of 9 away. He lost a 3-2 gem earlier to Meche and went 8 strong. Last year he pitched well in 2 starts vs Sea allowing 3 runs in 15 innings (one start at Safeco). he is 94-37 lifetime in AUGUST with 16 shutouts .
Washburn has been real solid vs NY but this yr LHB are really a concern for him. The new Yankee lineup is very LH heavy and that 306 BAA and 1.67 WHIP could spell trouble. Seattle only 254 against LH and NY 283 but ARod might sit again. NY is 13-7 away vs LHP. Basically Sea is in a major funk and NY is on fire. NYY 16-7 L23 meetings.
Under 9 -109 NYY and Sea(3units)
Both SP with success against there opponents. Jeff Nelson behind the dish is 17-8 under with 9.15 per game. Silly stat of the day Sea 25-9 under on Thursdays prev 34 games.
Royals +163 (unit)
Redman seems to be soldi when he faces Cleveland and Sabathis seems to struggle at KAuffman Stadium. KC is hitting LH much better recently then Cleveland. Lets see if they can make up for the fiasco yesterday.
Over 9 -111 Texas and TB (3units)& Over 5 -115 First 5 INN (unit)
Leaned on BALT , Under KC
Pre Season NFL
Carolina -4.5 -108 (unit)
GL
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Wednesday Thoughts
We start our day off with a RECAP of the Tuesday post:
Orioles -106 (5units) Won 6-3
Orioles 1st 5 Innings -110(3units) Led 5-1
Tigers -114(3units) Won 4-1
Under 9.5 DET -113(1 unit) 4-1 final
Blue Jays -147 (7units) Won 4-3 , sorry 10JQKA!
Over 8 TB and Texas -103 (5units) PUSH
KC +126 (1unit) Won 5-2
KC -1.5 +220 (1unit) Won 5-2
NYY -141 (unit) Lost 6-5
Under 10 +102 NYY and Sea (1unit) Lost , tied at 5 .
Astros +110 (1unit) Lost 14-0 , best way to lose never close!
Under 9 -103 Stl and NYM (1unit) Lost , 8-7 Final
Brewers -134 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 10 Cubs and Phils-112 (5 Units) Won , 6-3 Final
Padres -151 (7units)Won 1-0
Yesterday 10-4-1 +33.02 Units
7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )
WED Day GAmes:
Astros -135 now -150( 5 units)
Even I will keep this simple. You have Oswalt pitching on extended rest due to a bruised hand a mild concern for me. Not the hand really more the long layoff bewteen starts . So its Oswalt the ACE of the staff (co -ace whatever) facing a spot starter who hadnt pitched(started) in the majors in 5 season who happens to be LH which Houston actually hits well against when they are on the road. Oh yeah Oswalt is 15-1 lifetime vs Cincy and Pitt hit Michalak hard last time out plus his grandmother passed away .
Houston looked like shit today and should be ready here after a 14-0 trouncing. Again real simple logic a #1 SP facing barely a #5 SP ....Houstons pen is bad but Cincy's is really shorthanded due to injuries. Houston will answer the bell IMO.......
Also Houston 16-10 against LHP and 17-19 in day games but Cincy just 22-30 in day games as compared to 44-31 at nite. Freel on the bench is a plus IMO as well. Silly trend note Hou 5-1 as road chalk from 125 to 150 and Cincy 1-6 as a dog in that range.
If the CHALK concerns you I dont have a problem laying -1.5 RUNS @ +105. However in the long run I dont see the value of doing that in this type situation. All you are doing is reducing your vig and your chances of winning there isnt a better payout. If I win and I make these decisions thinking I will win I get 100 x 5 or lose pay 150 x 5. The RL pays you 105 x 5 to risk 100 x 5.....generally NOT a smart decision.
GL- more to come but probably not many
Night Edition
Houston took the first one 7-3 and you ever just feel good about something....well I do concerning my comments about the Cincy pen. Short on time so quick comments only..
Orioles -111 (5units)
The Orioles are just playing solid baseball and have hit RHP extremely well all season long at Camden. Garza is a young pitcher with an extremely high ceiling who is getting accustomed to the majors. His ML debut he was said to be visibly nervous and his performance was POOR. The next time out he was much better but pulled after 5 innings. So the question becomes do they have a short leash with the kid expecying only 5 or 6 innings and how will he handle his 1st road start?? The lack of innings isnt a huge concern because Minny pen is so solid but anytime IMO you depend on your pen for 4 innings your looking for trouble.
Lopez has continually improved and I believed turned in about 6 or 7 real solid starts at Camden. He pitched well in Minny recently and versus these guys last season. As I stated yesterday the O's pen ...NOT SO GOOD outside Ray but the good news is Lopez has gone into the 7th and 8 th innings in all but 1 of those recent home outings.
Minny scored 4 or less in 8 of 12 (5,7,7,7, in the others). Lopez last 7 starts at home: O's are 5-2 the losses Balt scored 1 and 0 runs. They spanned 48 1/3 innings 49 hits 18 runs 17 earned 5BB 30K's 7 Hrs(4 in 1 start vs NYY).
Tigers -107 (1unit)
The White Sox just continue there major offensive funk!! Miner isnt someone I trust but for some reason he has been sharpest in his nite starts 6-1 low 3 ERA. Garcia has defeated DET 3x this year and recently beat Miner in Chi. I just dont see Chi putting many runs up early and 7th-9th innings the Tigers have a huge edge.
Under 10.5 -108 KC and KC +!33 (1unit each)
Really just think this is basically the same setup as yesterday. So reread my thoughts from Tuesday.
Havent looked at the late starts yet and for those who cared leaned Oakland but didnt play , leaned under First 5 TB and TB but stayed away.
NL
Nationals +126(1unit)
Personally I am concerned Scott Olsen is hitting the wall lately. Fla's middle relief is inconsistent and not to be counted on IMO. The NAts hit LHP very well and nearly 280 on the road. Armas has struggled vs FLA and away recently but IMO is pitching well of late.
Under 9.5 +105 STl And NYM (3units)
Traschel is pitching fairly well recently and I could see a 6 inning 3 run stint and then turning it over to a bullpen throwing very well. Mulder is the wildcard here , what can we expect?? One thing for sure is the NYM are struggling vs LHP lately see Traber HAmels and Wolf...Not to mention a 255 BAA at home vs LHP and Wrights sluggish 2nd H. When healthy Mulder looked great earlier in May vs NY but again where is he at now??
Under 8.5 -110 Atla and Pitt (1unit)
Hudson is back to his old form IMO. Snell has been real solid away all year. The Pirates haven't hit much on the road , in previous trips to Atlanta, and just all yr in general...4-3 game
Over 4.5 +111 Milw and Col First 5 innings (unit)
Kim has a 7++ERA away and Sheets hasnt looked good past few outings. BAsically hoping one guys gets hit real hard...
Thats it for now , maybe more later....Have a Hoops game.
We start our day off with a RECAP of the Tuesday post:
Orioles -106 (5units) Won 6-3
Orioles 1st 5 Innings -110(3units) Led 5-1
Tigers -114(3units) Won 4-1
Under 9.5 DET -113(1 unit) 4-1 final
Blue Jays -147 (7units) Won 4-3 , sorry 10JQKA!
Over 8 TB and Texas -103 (5units) PUSH
KC +126 (1unit) Won 5-2
KC -1.5 +220 (1unit) Won 5-2
NYY -141 (unit) Lost 6-5
Under 10 +102 NYY and Sea (1unit) Lost , tied at 5 .
Astros +110 (1unit) Lost 14-0 , best way to lose never close!
Under 9 -103 Stl and NYM (1unit) Lost , 8-7 Final
Brewers -134 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 10 Cubs and Phils-112 (5 Units) Won , 6-3 Final
Padres -151 (7units)Won 1-0
Yesterday 10-4-1 +33.02 Units
7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )
WED Day GAmes:
Astros -135 now -150( 5 units)
Even I will keep this simple. You have Oswalt pitching on extended rest due to a bruised hand a mild concern for me. Not the hand really more the long layoff bewteen starts . So its Oswalt the ACE of the staff (co -ace whatever) facing a spot starter who hadnt pitched(started) in the majors in 5 season who happens to be LH which Houston actually hits well against when they are on the road. Oh yeah Oswalt is 15-1 lifetime vs Cincy and Pitt hit Michalak hard last time out plus his grandmother passed away .
Houston looked like shit today and should be ready here after a 14-0 trouncing. Again real simple logic a #1 SP facing barely a #5 SP ....Houstons pen is bad but Cincy's is really shorthanded due to injuries. Houston will answer the bell IMO.......
Also Houston 16-10 against LHP and 17-19 in day games but Cincy just 22-30 in day games as compared to 44-31 at nite. Freel on the bench is a plus IMO as well. Silly trend note Hou 5-1 as road chalk from 125 to 150 and Cincy 1-6 as a dog in that range.
If the CHALK concerns you I dont have a problem laying -1.5 RUNS @ +105. However in the long run I dont see the value of doing that in this type situation. All you are doing is reducing your vig and your chances of winning there isnt a better payout. If I win and I make these decisions thinking I will win I get 100 x 5 or lose pay 150 x 5. The RL pays you 105 x 5 to risk 100 x 5.....generally NOT a smart decision.
GL- more to come but probably not many
Night Edition
Houston took the first one 7-3 and you ever just feel good about something....well I do concerning my comments about the Cincy pen. Short on time so quick comments only..
Orioles -111 (5units)
The Orioles are just playing solid baseball and have hit RHP extremely well all season long at Camden. Garza is a young pitcher with an extremely high ceiling who is getting accustomed to the majors. His ML debut he was said to be visibly nervous and his performance was POOR. The next time out he was much better but pulled after 5 innings. So the question becomes do they have a short leash with the kid expecying only 5 or 6 innings and how will he handle his 1st road start?? The lack of innings isnt a huge concern because Minny pen is so solid but anytime IMO you depend on your pen for 4 innings your looking for trouble.
Lopez has continually improved and I believed turned in about 6 or 7 real solid starts at Camden. He pitched well in Minny recently and versus these guys last season. As I stated yesterday the O's pen ...NOT SO GOOD outside Ray but the good news is Lopez has gone into the 7th and 8 th innings in all but 1 of those recent home outings.
Minny scored 4 or less in 8 of 12 (5,7,7,7, in the others). Lopez last 7 starts at home: O's are 5-2 the losses Balt scored 1 and 0 runs. They spanned 48 1/3 innings 49 hits 18 runs 17 earned 5BB 30K's 7 Hrs(4 in 1 start vs NYY).
Tigers -107 (1unit)
The White Sox just continue there major offensive funk!! Miner isnt someone I trust but for some reason he has been sharpest in his nite starts 6-1 low 3 ERA. Garcia has defeated DET 3x this year and recently beat Miner in Chi. I just dont see Chi putting many runs up early and 7th-9th innings the Tigers have a huge edge.
Under 10.5 -108 KC and KC +!33 (1unit each)
Really just think this is basically the same setup as yesterday. So reread my thoughts from Tuesday.
Havent looked at the late starts yet and for those who cared leaned Oakland but didnt play , leaned under First 5 TB and TB but stayed away.
NL
Nationals +126(1unit)
Personally I am concerned Scott Olsen is hitting the wall lately. Fla's middle relief is inconsistent and not to be counted on IMO. The NAts hit LHP very well and nearly 280 on the road. Armas has struggled vs FLA and away recently but IMO is pitching well of late.
Under 9.5 +105 STl And NYM (3units)
Traschel is pitching fairly well recently and I could see a 6 inning 3 run stint and then turning it over to a bullpen throwing very well. Mulder is the wildcard here , what can we expect?? One thing for sure is the NYM are struggling vs LHP lately see Traber HAmels and Wolf...Not to mention a 255 BAA at home vs LHP and Wrights sluggish 2nd H. When healthy Mulder looked great earlier in May vs NY but again where is he at now??
Under 8.5 -110 Atla and Pitt (1unit)
Hudson is back to his old form IMO. Snell has been real solid away all year. The Pirates haven't hit much on the road , in previous trips to Atlanta, and just all yr in general...4-3 game
Over 4.5 +111 Milw and Col First 5 innings (unit)
Kim has a 7++ERA away and Sheets hasnt looked good past few outings. BAsically hoping one guys gets hit real hard...
Thats it for now , maybe more later....Have a Hoops game.
Monday, August 21, 2006
Tuesday Thoughts
To make this blog run smoother I think I should do two things. First start the post off with a recap of the previous day and second use a UNIT system to rank my plays . So I will use a system that has 1 unit , 3 unit , 5 unit , 7 unit and 10 unit plays.
Here we go:
Orioles -106 (5units) now -108 & 1st 5 Innings -110 (3units)now-113
First we have to take a look at the Twinkies SP Carlos Silva. Yes, the guy has shown some imrovement but how could he get worse? This year opps hit .333 against him whether they are LH or RH!! The Road numbers are eye-popping in 10 starts ( 3 relief apps) 51 1/3 innings allowing 90hits 51 runs (48 er) 11BB 23K's and 15 Hrs. It gets worse when you look at his starts in fresh air (outdoors splits)..38 2/3 Innings 72 hits 42 runs (40er) 14Hrs 8BB 14 K's 9.31 ERA 2.25WHIP and .422 BAA!! Amazingly Minny has won 6 of his last 7 starts since the break including all 3 road starts. As I said he really isnt pitching better though as he got 35 RUNS of support in those 3 games . The numbers are 15 2/3 innings 29 hits , 12 runs (11er) 3Hrs 3 BB 5 Ks in 3 starts. How bout 62 runs in the 6 wins and shutout in the loss by a LHP!! Now you see my angle.....Loewen is inconsistent like most youngsters but has been fairly solid at CAmden and even versus the Yankees. Durng there revival Minny punished LHP but with White out again they have struggled lately vs LH's. Last 4 starts vs LHP were Cliff Lee 5 inn 8H 2 R 1BB 4 K , Downs 5 Inn 4 H 0R 1BB 1 K and 3 scoreless innings by LH relievers , Lilly 6 inn 3 H 0 R 2 BB 3 K and scoreless INN by a LH reliever , Robertson(White played) 7INN 7 H 3 R 3 BB 2 K and ZERO Hr's in those games. Not the offesne Silva is used to getting and certainly alot less then he needs looking at previous starts.
Orioles hit .297 at home versus RHP and have played extremely well past 6 games vs Boston and NYY. A bullpen meltdown away from sweeping the Yanks at the Stadium and a CY Young stopper away from embarassingly sweeping the Jays. Minny only .257 away vs LHP. Now Loewen in 6 starts at home has faced NYY(2) , Oak , wash , Sea , Tor. Really in only two of those did he struggle somewhat and both times vs Sea and Tor it happened in the 6th and 7th innings. He was shutting out Seattle but they touched him for 5 runs in the 6th and 7th and vs Tor he left with the bases loaded and 1 out but all 3 inherited scored(of the 5 he allowed that day). So there is definite confidence in this kid thru 5 innings but he wavers in the 6th and on and Balts pen isnt so good and not nearly as solid as Minnys. So we will have to look at playing Balt First 5 Innings as well(PK -105).
Tigers -114 (3units) Under 9.5 -113 (1unit)
Well as you can see the total moved alot from Over -110 to under -120 which makes me soften my stance on it somewhat. As I really like it for 3 units but I hate feeling the whole free world will be making that play and no one will take the over.
Like DET cause of a few things , Rogers has been solid at home winning 9 of 11 starts and pitching extremely well vs Chicago this season and in recent seasons. The White Sox lineup is in a major funk outside of Konerko and maybe even Citron and Ozuna in limited roles. he rest of the guys are struggling some. Rogers has had good indivual sucess against this CHI lineup as Konerko is just 8 of 31 against him with one HR this season. Like that Rogers has allowed just 3 XBH in 3 starts versus them as well. Both SP have had there struggles lately but Rogers seems to be improving more then Buerhle who has had his road woes lately. Chi is struggling with LHP while DET really is improving against it lately around 290 L 10 games. Plus there arent mnay slumping Tigers bats. DET gets the edge in the pen as well. Really with CHI not hitting and likely IMO based ob Buerhle's track record away this yr that he allows 4 runs or so and not sure Chi can equal or better that.
Blue Jays -147{7units}
First thing that stands out is Toronto facing a LHP.....327 clip at home! Then I look down a see 8 guys hitting at least 281 against LHP and 6 above .312!! Halsey carer wise allows RH to bat .304 against him but this yr has turned the tables some with RH hitting .269 and LH .302 which could be due to his extensive relief work...as he probably comes out of the pen to face LH and hasnt done well in those spots there fore he was demoted to AAA(just a guess)
Burnett has been solid at home and loks like he is in a grove especially since he pitched well at TB and Minny his past 2 starts. The Jays pen has the edge now as they are pitching well of late and oakland is w/o Street . HE has won 5 of 6 st home and pitchd wel there except versus Philly. It would be great to see the roof closed ashe has been excellent indoors so far but he is tough on RHB which is bad news for Oakland who comes in struggling vs RH.
I find it interesting that Payton , Kendall and Thomas are the only regulars hitting 280 off RHP. A power pitcher like Burnett should keep them in check though. Guys like Chavez 250 , Kielty .234 0Hrs and Swisher .242 21 hrs are struggling with Righties. I expect last nights debacle to be a wakeup call ike it was for DET on Monday not an extension of the A's run.
Over 8 -103 Texas and TB (5units)
Okay an AL game with an 8 TOTAL??? Padilla does pitch well on the road but is still only going to be around a 7 inning -3run type starter and he has received solid run support on teh road. Texas hitting LHP very well lately and yes this is KAzmir but he has thrown just 5 innings twice in the past 2 starts!! Your not getting Kazmir at his peak but the total reflects that. TB is going to be cautious with him at this point and I wouldguess he doesnt make many starts that last more then 6 innings. He has looked good but 87 and 89 pitches are what he has tossed. He gets ZERO run support but the balance i sthat Texas faces the tB pen for 3 or 4 innings . Come on 23 hits and ONLY 7 runs last nite....that has to change!
still working....noticed Orioles are -106 now LOCK it in go both First 5 and game if you want!
Act II:
Royals +126 (1unit) & ARL +220(1unit)
This has been a series where the road team simply cant win and CLE isnt a very good team away from the JAke. There pen is still in disarray and while Lee has been solid he is stil basically a 6 inning SP. He has a 4-0 record @ KC but he hasnt pitched exceptionally just good enough to win. KC has hit LHP well athome (287) and Cle is struggling some against LH now. KC has shown some late inning strength lately and Perez IMO is getting into a groove throwing theball much better . he has a decent start at the JAke under his belt vs these guys and today I think they pullout the WIN.
Under 10 Seattle and NYY +104 & NYY -141 (unit each)
Felt that yesterday NY's bats would continue to cool off and I think the process continues. They face a SP they havent seen backed up by a solid pen. You have to wonder if they will be flathere after flying crosss country and playing @ Fenway. Thing is Seattle is frigid right now and acknowledging there season is over and making changes....they may just be playing out he string! Seattle has scored 13 runs past 6 games and 7 came in game!!
NL
Astros +110(unit)
Yes, they cant hit but Cincy isnt doing much beter lately. While I presently suprised by Lohse NL transformation he has still managed to lose his 3 NL starts despite pitching extremely well. Now that he is favored wouldnt it be funny for he to get shelled and lose........
Under9 -103 Stl and NYM(unit)
Would have been niuce to see this stay at 9. Weaver has pitched better on the road and is doing nicely past few starts due to mechanical changes. MAine has been real solid at especially tough at Shea. Both sport decent pens and banged up lineups....
To make this blog run smoother I think I should do two things. First start the post off with a recap of the previous day and second use a UNIT system to rank my plays . So I will use a system that has 1 unit , 3 unit , 5 unit , 7 unit and 10 unit plays.
Here we go:
Orioles -106 (5units) now -108 & 1st 5 Innings -110 (3units)now-113
First we have to take a look at the Twinkies SP Carlos Silva. Yes, the guy has shown some imrovement but how could he get worse? This year opps hit .333 against him whether they are LH or RH!! The Road numbers are eye-popping in 10 starts ( 3 relief apps) 51 1/3 innings allowing 90hits 51 runs (48 er) 11BB 23K's and 15 Hrs. It gets worse when you look at his starts in fresh air (outdoors splits)..38 2/3 Innings 72 hits 42 runs (40er) 14Hrs 8BB 14 K's 9.31 ERA 2.25WHIP and .422 BAA!! Amazingly Minny has won 6 of his last 7 starts since the break including all 3 road starts. As I said he really isnt pitching better though as he got 35 RUNS of support in those 3 games . The numbers are 15 2/3 innings 29 hits , 12 runs (11er) 3Hrs 3 BB 5 Ks in 3 starts. How bout 62 runs in the 6 wins and shutout in the loss by a LHP!! Now you see my angle.....Loewen is inconsistent like most youngsters but has been fairly solid at CAmden and even versus the Yankees. Durng there revival Minny punished LHP but with White out again they have struggled lately vs LH's. Last 4 starts vs LHP were Cliff Lee 5 inn 8H 2 R 1BB 4 K , Downs 5 Inn 4 H 0R 1BB 1 K and 3 scoreless innings by LH relievers , Lilly 6 inn 3 H 0 R 2 BB 3 K and scoreless INN by a LH reliever , Robertson(White played) 7INN 7 H 3 R 3 BB 2 K and ZERO Hr's in those games. Not the offesne Silva is used to getting and certainly alot less then he needs looking at previous starts.
Orioles hit .297 at home versus RHP and have played extremely well past 6 games vs Boston and NYY. A bullpen meltdown away from sweeping the Yanks at the Stadium and a CY Young stopper away from embarassingly sweeping the Jays. Minny only .257 away vs LHP. Now Loewen in 6 starts at home has faced NYY(2) , Oak , wash , Sea , Tor. Really in only two of those did he struggle somewhat and both times vs Sea and Tor it happened in the 6th and 7th innings. He was shutting out Seattle but they touched him for 5 runs in the 6th and 7th and vs Tor he left with the bases loaded and 1 out but all 3 inherited scored(of the 5 he allowed that day). So there is definite confidence in this kid thru 5 innings but he wavers in the 6th and on and Balts pen isnt so good and not nearly as solid as Minnys. So we will have to look at playing Balt First 5 Innings as well(PK -105).
Tigers -114 (3units) Under 9.5 -113 (1unit)
Well as you can see the total moved alot from Over -110 to under -120 which makes me soften my stance on it somewhat. As I really like it for 3 units but I hate feeling the whole free world will be making that play and no one will take the over.
Like DET cause of a few things , Rogers has been solid at home winning 9 of 11 starts and pitching extremely well vs Chicago this season and in recent seasons. The White Sox lineup is in a major funk outside of Konerko and maybe even Citron and Ozuna in limited roles. he rest of the guys are struggling some. Rogers has had good indivual sucess against this CHI lineup as Konerko is just 8 of 31 against him with one HR this season. Like that Rogers has allowed just 3 XBH in 3 starts versus them as well. Both SP have had there struggles lately but Rogers seems to be improving more then Buerhle who has had his road woes lately. Chi is struggling with LHP while DET really is improving against it lately around 290 L 10 games. Plus there arent mnay slumping Tigers bats. DET gets the edge in the pen as well. Really with CHI not hitting and likely IMO based ob Buerhle's track record away this yr that he allows 4 runs or so and not sure Chi can equal or better that.
Blue Jays -147{7units}
First thing that stands out is Toronto facing a LHP.....327 clip at home! Then I look down a see 8 guys hitting at least 281 against LHP and 6 above .312!! Halsey carer wise allows RH to bat .304 against him but this yr has turned the tables some with RH hitting .269 and LH .302 which could be due to his extensive relief work...as he probably comes out of the pen to face LH and hasnt done well in those spots there fore he was demoted to AAA(just a guess)
Burnett has been solid at home and loks like he is in a grove especially since he pitched well at TB and Minny his past 2 starts. The Jays pen has the edge now as they are pitching well of late and oakland is w/o Street . HE has won 5 of 6 st home and pitchd wel there except versus Philly. It would be great to see the roof closed ashe has been excellent indoors so far but he is tough on RHB which is bad news for Oakland who comes in struggling vs RH.
I find it interesting that Payton , Kendall and Thomas are the only regulars hitting 280 off RHP. A power pitcher like Burnett should keep them in check though. Guys like Chavez 250 , Kielty .234 0Hrs and Swisher .242 21 hrs are struggling with Righties. I expect last nights debacle to be a wakeup call ike it was for DET on Monday not an extension of the A's run.
Over 8 -103 Texas and TB (5units)
Okay an AL game with an 8 TOTAL??? Padilla does pitch well on the road but is still only going to be around a 7 inning -3run type starter and he has received solid run support on teh road. Texas hitting LHP very well lately and yes this is KAzmir but he has thrown just 5 innings twice in the past 2 starts!! Your not getting Kazmir at his peak but the total reflects that. TB is going to be cautious with him at this point and I wouldguess he doesnt make many starts that last more then 6 innings. He has looked good but 87 and 89 pitches are what he has tossed. He gets ZERO run support but the balance i sthat Texas faces the tB pen for 3 or 4 innings . Come on 23 hits and ONLY 7 runs last nite....that has to change!
still working....noticed Orioles are -106 now LOCK it in go both First 5 and game if you want!
Act II:
Royals +126 (1unit) & ARL +220(1unit)
This has been a series where the road team simply cant win and CLE isnt a very good team away from the JAke. There pen is still in disarray and while Lee has been solid he is stil basically a 6 inning SP. He has a 4-0 record @ KC but he hasnt pitched exceptionally just good enough to win. KC has hit LHP well athome (287) and Cle is struggling some against LH now. KC has shown some late inning strength lately and Perez IMO is getting into a groove throwing theball much better . he has a decent start at the JAke under his belt vs these guys and today I think they pullout the WIN.
Under 10 Seattle and NYY +104 & NYY -141 (unit each)
Felt that yesterday NY's bats would continue to cool off and I think the process continues. They face a SP they havent seen backed up by a solid pen. You have to wonder if they will be flathere after flying crosss country and playing @ Fenway. Thing is Seattle is frigid right now and acknowledging there season is over and making changes....they may just be playing out he string! Seattle has scored 13 runs past 6 games and 7 came in game!!
NL
Astros +110(unit)
Yes, they cant hit but Cincy isnt doing much beter lately. While I presently suprised by Lohse NL transformation he has still managed to lose his 3 NL starts despite pitching extremely well. Now that he is favored wouldnt it be funny for he to get shelled and lose........
Under9 -103 Stl and NYM(unit)
Would have been niuce to see this stay at 9. Weaver has pitched better on the road and is doing nicely past few starts due to mechanical changes. MAine has been real solid at especially tough at Shea. Both sport decent pens and banged up lineups....
Act III:
Brewers -134(3units)
Maybe I am a SUCKER but have to like Capunao here in the 7/30 rematch , dont you?? Great track record pitching versus the Rockies and loves his Miller Park. All Cook has done is watch his team lose 13 of his previous 16 starts. Oh yeah they hit 254 away vs LHP....
Under 10 -112 Philly and Chicago(5units)
Again this screams out at me. We know Chicago has really struggled vs LHP and they lost Itzuris now and Barrett is questionable. Philly lost Rowand and probably Utley as well. Moyer this and Moyer that........they Covers editors who wrote there article dont make much sense....Moyer could struggle in the NL and away from Safeco. Did they research his 3 starts vs the NL this year ....damn good! 27 innings 15 hits and 5 runs !!The only road venues he struggled at were the lineups that slugged LHP...Chicago sure doesnt. Philly only 242 away against LHP and 236 at home for Chicago. O'Malley an unknown was solid as could be at Houston.........roll the dice with the pens and hope the starters do there job. Payback for last nite ...for under backers
Padres -150(7units)
Peavy hasnt allowed to LAD 2 score miore then 2 runs ever at Petco. He has returned to All Starform lately and always pitches well vs LAD. Hendrickson is just a question mark. He seems to pitch better on the road and has looked decent in 2 career starts vs SD. SD has alos won 9 of 10 vs LAD. Although they didnt hit LHP well if peavy holds them to 2 runs oir less even 3 runs I am very confident in my play.
Havent looked at the last games in the AL & NL but interested in the dogs, might be back with something!! Good Luck
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